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First 0rlu moung aueias

MA(D N o s
i's
The enaial equation
t D, tL.-
X =
26 024-1
wh Conatan
z -whi noise
Vaiana - 2

h) =
E (Xeth, X6
3(h)E|(to z-)(Zt4nt 6 Ztth-
E (2 ztth0Zt Zm-1 +9Zth Zt-1

0242tth-1)
EE(2 24h) +E lB z Ztth-1)+E (0 Z12th)
+E l024- 2tth-)
Let h-D 3l)- wt

3lo)=-E (zt)+e E(z ze-)+


eE(z- 24) + 6 E (Z4)
btop o t0+ 0s (tt6)?
ot h=1
+
) =
E (2 Zt-1)* E (2 21-2)
DE l2) +0°E (2-1 24-2)

dov h> wll ontain loum ony wifh

xtth,t)-/46) h:o
h-T
thl
trunalis
AutD Co Vauana undtin

atu log 1
Prn)
8lo) .
dlH
Plo)-
3to)
Co) t+

O fov all k
i t h-d
+02
ihatt|
is h l l
Fixgt oolu Auto regxessi'pn

AR C1) PrOtos
->0
= X- tZt t 0,t1,.- .

un
wn lorvelatuol
LOrrelattd
a
Sin X; anol Z
is Zelo
2elo
moan
the
The PoOLs

squaing
-E + 2 9 E-
ETY7
E

8,to) -*a,1o)
-)8,to) =a
+

p
EnnSise

a)Gniun: E(Y)-u Ey'L0


E (y-c)2
E (y-2Y +c)
ECY) 2e ECY) +c
-

E CY)-2c utc
To Gind the
eobune Fois
t erunttaluhg
- ( E L Y - 2 u t ) - - -24+2C=o

2U 2 c > M=C

( E A)-2cut) =2 >0is
is MinijMun P o .

b ELCY-4tx]-£(Y-2Y#)+#«
- 2$() EYIx]+8x)
= LPIx7
Tom ta) 4ako Cd (X) -ElyIx)
whch s mumuxd by $ty) -ElYIX
)E(Y- ElE (4-w)) ]x)
E(Y-ECY1¥) I¥ ) L E ( (y-f)|y
Takng enpecdaDM on
(ts0m b)
botn Sde
ELY-E(YI)e Ely-t ¥)
)Eltvlx)
Gtiven
E ) L0 E(XA
ElXn- |x|
ECnnl) nH1-E(nnt x)+ E(xnylx)

E (

+EE(Yul)-40) |]
Si * - ltlmly)-d()F IYE (Xn lx) x
2
. E 1-$))y |>E|(m-Ebm\P)
n)- E) Yn lY%. n
b)Takinq eoPectation cm botn Siolo
ueg
E Xo1t)E(o-E(mnl»)
C)Byb) tho Minumuu mean Suate
en preaucto O XntH
X1, X2. Xn who X X2
.

ae
No Hn Mia M2
E (Xonlx) - E(Kmi) =
u

d) Suppee dK unbonsto
oY , i-e Ed
(d M= F(Edi-+
2E(EdX - ) (4) 4E ( - )

E(z -) (X-)= Cov(aix;-7,


Yu
tov (zai Eh,
-

ov (E ¥i ,E
Z di -

e nolu
onoluuon Ohe
E( XA-ZdXi = 2

E(XnH
2
n-Y) (%- Eai X)E( )
E (-7
) E ( 9a+19 g) E (nt tiS
Sn tE
(Km )..Sn)
Sinte 3... h
is ioluserolent of S,
Xatt
Knt
t3) bruun:
Stmcty Stahona
and E
xE L0
EYis indopenodond g b
Sino t Dh Xt
olisttbutton
nobpenolnt Ohtad EX ed .
(tnȴe) inoperdod b
O tho rintdi bu buton OXtth

x woably StadionaUy

a) a tbztt CZ-2
do Muen ValLu

T0 ind h auto Covaliant

xtth ) tov (vmX)


a+ b +t-2)
lov atb Zy7}-26
Cov (24th Z74) 4be Cov[2t4h.zt-2)
+ eb tov (2th-2Zt) +c*Cov
(ZtHh-222

h 0
4 C* ov (z4-2,Zt-2)
bCov (z .z4)
(b+ )
h 2
bca2
Zt-2)-
be cov ( Zt-2
h +22 cb2
(zt+2-2 Zt)
cb oy
(L°+c)2 ,
1h =o
tth,t) =

b2 ith=12]
o theruoie

is indponolont
ylt) & lth)
hE, iIs vakly 3t atiorovuy
X z los(Ct) +22 Sin (ct)

an

M,le)= £ l2] cos (et) #[22J sin l)

y tth.t) ov(Yth,)
CoV(2tos(clttm))4 Z2 Sin (e (tth),
2 os (ct)+z2 Sin
(¢))
Cos (cltth) (os lCt) Cov (Z) ,Z) t
Co(c (ttm)) sinltt) cov(z11Z2) +

Sin(c(t) LoSct) Cov (zZ2)


8in (ctttn)) Sin(cE) Cov (22 22
2
(c tt4h))(OSCE) + Sin (c(t th)
Sin(t))
och) gyCa-P)- tesd tes B+
Sind sinB
lt yltmt) indepenolurt eg tt

So it S a t Staticraly
c)
y le) E (ze) oslE)+ElSin{ct)

yt+h,t) TO (XE4n e)
(ov(ZColc)+ Zth- Sin tiE>
Zt ((L) tZ-1 Sinltt))
Cos(clHh)) ce3 (ct) Cov (Zeth,z+)

Cos(cttth)) ginl(t) tov (Ztth,2-) +


Sin(cCtn)) CostCE) Cov (2Hh-1Z)
SinfcCtm)) Sin(tE) tov (2
n-1, 2t-1)
2tnsCt) +o?sid) -d h-O
t o s (clt-))srNet) h:-
Coslct)Sin (( (tH)) h
X i (uuaPly Statioy for C-tKT,kez
fos c #KT X i nvt uuakuy
Stahonay.
d) Xe a t b Zp
Ay lt) =E atbzo=a

tth,t)
=
Cov (th, Xt

loY atb Zo, atbzo)


bCov(zo, Zb ) =
2
ox(t4h, i3 wsally
Aty lt) &

StationaM
e)XE Zo Cos(Ct) »s
uylt) = El20) Cos (tt) =b

Cov (20 os Ccltth)) , Z, o s )


Cos (cCEth)) os (tt) Cov(20 *
2
(et+h))(es
Cos s h e n C-1KI

XAAonktu Staltonay
anol o t Wacy gtotiou when

C tk ,ke z

)
ly ) =
Ez Z-1
x 4tht) - Cov (Xtth, t)

lov ZttH Ztth-1,2tZ4-1)


E lZthZttn-) Zt Zt-)
4
y(ttht) . 1h O
oother Lonse
waky Stakoiay.

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