Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The Politics of Banking in Romania - Soft Loans, Looting
The Politics of Banking in Romania - Soft Loans, Looting
1
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not neces-
sarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its Member States. The author is grate-
ful to Peter Humphreys, Yoram Gorlizki and Michael Moran for their comments and
discussions on earlier versions of this article, and to an anonymous referee for very
helpful comments and suggestions.
2
J. Elster, C. Offe and U. K. Preuss, Institutional Design in Post-Communist Societies:
Rebuilding the Ship at Sea, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998.
3
L. Cernat, and R. Vranceanu, ‘Globalization and Development: New Evidence
from Eastern Europe’, Comparative Economic Studies, 44: 4 (2002), pp. 119–36.
4
C. Poirot, ‘Macroeconomic Stabilization in an Uncertain Environment: the Case
of Romania’, Journal of Economic Issues, 30: 4 (1996), pp. 1057–75; G. A. Calvo and F.
Coricelli, ‘Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit’, IMF Staff Papers,
40: 1 (1992).
5
According to the World Bank, there have only been three examples of unqual-
ified bank restructuring success among CEECs: Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia. See P.
Siegelbaum, ‘Financial Sector Reform in the Transition Economies: What Have We
Learned; What Are the Next Steps?’, speech delivered at the 2nd Annual Conference
on Bank Credit in Central and Eastern Europe, sponsored by the International
Industry Conferences On Bank Credit Risk, IBC UK Conferences Limited, Prague,
2 September 1997.
ian Bank for Development, for instance, to give them long-term loans
for investing in new capacities or new technologies, or
the Romanian Bank for External Trade to give them full support in
foreign trade, as was the case before 1989. After privatization these
politically controlled networks involved not only SOEs and banks but
also newly privatized firms owned by the political clientele of the
ruling party.
To eliminate the centralized system, one of the most important
economic reforms introduced after 1989 was the decentralization of
the banking system. Before 1989, the Romanian banking system was
quite centralized, with banks acting as spin-offs of the central bank,
and being specialized by sector. Romania maintained a highly con-
centrated banking system in the early years of transition, having the
smallest number of banks across the region. The number of private
banks was equally low compared to other transition economies, as
was their share in total bank assets. The Romanian market continued
to remain oligopolistic, banking being concentrated in the hands of
the three biggest state-owned banks, whose managers maintained
close links with the ruling government. These three banks accounted
for 42.8 per cent of total market share in 2002, compared with 75
per cent in 1998.6 Not surprisingly, given the general reluctance of
the government to encourage foreign investment in general, foreign
participation in the banking sector remained limited and confined
to foreign bank subsidiaries. The importance of foreign penetration
in the banking sector is well evidenced in Demirgüç-Kunt et al., who
show that higher foreign-bank penetration enhances economic
growth by boosting domestic banking efficiency.7 However, state-
owned banks in Romania were not included in the privatization pro-
gramme until recently, and therefore the benefits of foreign bank
penetration were not attained.
The number of banks in Romania remained relatively low com-
pared to the number in Russia for instance, or even that in Poland
or Bulgaria, not only in the early stages of transition but also ten years
later. Thus, in 2002 there were 54 banks operating in Romania, out
6
Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Forecast: Romania, London, Economist
Intelligence Unit, December 2002.
7
A. Demirgüç-Kunt, R. Levine and H. G. Min, ‘Opening to Foreign Banks: Issues
of Stability, Efficiency, and Growth’, Proceedings Bank of Korea Conference on the Implica-
tions of Globalization of World Financial Markets, Seoul, Bank of Korea, 1998, pp. 83–105.
8
National Bank of Romania, Comunicate de Presa, Bucharest, National Bank of
Romania, 2001.
Financial Repression
9
For a good discussion on the debate about financial repression, as well as a com-
parative discussion of financial systems, see for instance R. I. McKinnon, Money and
Capital in Economic Development, Washington, Brookings Institution, 1973; J. Fry, Money,
Interest and Banking in Economic Development, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press,
1988; S. Haggard, C. H. Lee and S. Maxfield (eds), The Politics of Finance in Developing
Countries, Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 1993.
10
Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Forecast, op. cit., p. 25.
Figure 1
Financial Repression in Romania: Negative Real Interest Rates
150
100
50
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source: National Bank of Romania, various Annual Statistical Reports.
12
T. Hellman, K. Murdock and J. Stiglitz, ‘Financial Restraint: Towards A New Par-
adigm’, paper written for the World Bank EDI Workshop on the Roles of Government
in East Asian Economies: Rent Creation, Coordination and Institutional Development,
Stanford University, 10–11 February 1995.
13
Hellman et al. ‘Financial Restraint’, op. cit., stress that, for financial restraint
policies to create such positive effects, a number of conditions must be present, includ-
ing a stable, low-inflation macroeconomic environment, non-excessive taxation of the
financial sector, and positive real interest rates.
14
There is a large volume of theoretical and empirical literature on identifying
the causes and channels of soft budgets. The theoretical literature is summarized in
J. Kornai, ‘The Place of the Soft Budget Constraint Syndrome in Economic Theory’,
Journal of Comparative Economics, 26: 1 (1998), pp. 11–17. Empirical studies include J.
P. Bonin and M. E. Schaffer, ‘Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary
1991–94’, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper 234, London, London
Table 1
Non-Performing Loans Across CEECs (as Percentage of Total Loans)
Country 1994 1995 1996 1997
Bulgaria 7 13 15 13
Croatia 12 13 11 10
Czech Republic 34 33 30 29
Hungary 18 10 7 4
Poland 29 21 13 10
Romania 19 38 48 57
Slovakia 30 41 32 33
Slovenia 22 13 14 12
School of Economics, 1995, on Hungary; S. Claessens and P. R. Kyle, Jr., ‘State Enter-
prise Performance and Soft Budget Constraints: the Case of Bulgaria’, Economics of
Transition, 5: 2, pp. 305–22, on Bulgaria; E. Perotti and O. Carare, ‘The Evolution of
Bank Credit Quality in Transition: Theory and Evidence from Romania’, CERT
Discussion Paper, 2, Edinburgh, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation,
1997, on Romania.
15
M. S. Borish, W. Ding and M. Noël, On the Road to EU Accession. Financial Sector
Development in Central Europe, Washington, DC, World Bank, 1996; R. W. Anderson and
C. Kegels, Transitional Banking: Financial Development of Central and Eastern Europe,
Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1998.
16
A. Amsden, Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization, New York,
Oxford University Press, 1989.
Self-Lending
17
ETEBA, Romania: Weekly Bulletin, Bucharest, ETEBA Romania, 16–22 March
2002, p. 1.
18
Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Forecast, op. cit.
CASE STUDIES
19
G. Akerlof and P. Romer, ‘Looting: the Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy
for Profit’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2 (1993), pp. 1–73.
20
‘Stiri politice’, Ziarul Expres, 17 September 1997. Available online at
http://www.Expres.ro/arhive.
21
Ibid., 29 July 1996.
ously, such a bad sign, fuelled by various rumours about the overall
financial situation of the bank, produced widespread panic among
its clients, with everyone rushing to withdraw their money from both
current and savings accounts. This herd behaviour only aggravated
the situation in the bank, but as Romania had witnessed several spec-
tacular crashes of banks and other financial institutions, this attitude
was entirely justified.
Faced with the possibility that the bank would collapse under the
pressure of a large majority of clients wanting to withdraw their
deposits, the government had to bail the bank out. For this purpose,
the Ministry of Finance issued a special series of government bonds
that were supposed to temper the panic and restore the population’s
confidence in the solvency and liquidity of Banca Agricola. Further-
more, the Ministry of Finance with the assistance of the National
Bank tried to step in to recover some of the bad loans from SOEs
that had defaulted. Widespread deficiencies in the legal infrastruc-
ture for banking, particularly in the laws governing collateral and
bankruptcy, meant that the bank could reliably look to the courts to
recover loan losses.
An interesting development occurred in the case of Banca
Agricola. As in other transition countries, bank regulators tried to
compensate these institutional deficiencies by other rules like the
‘one bank, one account’ rule.22 Thus, in the absence of efficient
legal enforcement, banks should be able to de facto freeze their cus-
tomers’ accounts in case of failure to repay a loan. However, although
this was the general rule (as established by Governmental Decision
no. 83/1993), which should have enabled Banca Agricola to at least
partially recover its losses from the existing liquidities of bad debtors,
other decisions of the Vacaroiu government created some loopholes
in this general principle. For instance, as various business associa-
tions claimed that this strict regulatory framework was a barrier for
their activities, and sought to introduce some competition among
banks, one year later Decision no. 270/1994, and the subsequent
guidelines for its application, allowed companies that were unable to
obtain credit for export or production activities from their own bank,
22
This rule stipulated that a company was allowed to keep all its accounts with one
bank only. This regulation was supposed to provide banks with leverage on those com-
panies inclined to avoid payment of their loans by allowing the bank to freeze all the
other accounts held by that company.
23
For a typical example of this situation, see for instance the Romanian Constitu-
tional Court’s Decision no. 101, Bucharest, Monitorul Oficial, 9 July 1998.
all managers of state-owned banks were either the same old com-
munist bureaucrats or fresh political appointees, not necessarily with
vast experience in the banking sector. Secondly, not all frauds
and bad loans were triggered by political interference. Saying yes
whenever required by politicians created a mutual interdependence
between bankers and politicians that gave bank managers full immu-
nity from legal or audit control. Consequently, bank managers had
much room for all sorts of financial tricks.
One such example occurred at Banca Agricola when the bank
decided to grant a significant loan to an obscure company, Prefabri-
cate Vest, who needed the loan to finalize the acquisition of another
company, Muntenia, which was sold in the process of privatization.
The collateral for the loan was formed from shares in the company
to be acquired. However, instead of receiving the collateral in
exchange for the initial loan, Banca Agricola decided that it should
buy these shares. The price of the shares acquired from the new
owner, Prefabricate Vest, was several times higher than the price ini-
tially paid by Prefabricate to the State Ownership Fund (SOF), the
leading agency in charge of privatization. Following the purchase of
these shares, Banca Agricola became a major shareholder, owning
around 20 per cent of Muntenia. The sequence of bad deals did not
stop here. As a major shareholder, Banca Agricola agreed that Pre-
fabricate would increase its participation in Muntenia with assets
worth around 50 billion lei (around two million US dollars). As a
result of this new infusion of capital, Banca Agricola’s share in Munte-
nia decreased from 20 per cent to around 2.5 per cent. This in itself
does not appear significant, but a closer look at the assets bought by
Prefabricate has shown that in fact the assets worth 50 billion lei con-
sisted of only a few software programs. All of these illegalities were
in fact designed to ensure that Prefabricate acquired Muntenia with
money from Banca Agricola, without any further financial obligation
vis-à-vis the bank.24
Overall, all the illegal financial practices at Banca Agricola
amounted to around one billion US dollars.25 In an attempt to avoid
24
The information on Banca Agricola is based on several press reports and
confidential interviews with experts from the Governmental Accounting Office,
Bucharest, Spring 2001.
the bankruptcy of the bank these losses were covered with public
funds. This set a negative precedent, which was followed in many
other cases. It is hard to believe that such illegal practices could be
carried out in the absence of some form of clientelism and political
interference. Further evidence supporting such conclusions can be
found in the widespread deficiencies in the legal infrastructure gov-
erning bank frauds and the lax attitude vis-à-vis those involved in
these alleged illegalities.
25
For further details on the overall amount covered by public funds in the Banca
Agricola case, see the special report on bank frauds in Cotidianul, Bucharest, 6 April
2000 and Jurnalul National, Bucharest, 24 October 2000.
26
Petre Roman and Ion Iliescu were clearly rivals for power within the National
Salvation Front; furthermore, they held divergent views of the best way forward in
reforming the economy. As a result, it was not long before the party split into two
warring camps led by the two former political allies. Eventually these two wings of the
party evolved into separate parties. Ion Iliescu remained at the top of the Party of
Social Democracy of Romania (PDSR) and Petre Roman became the leader of the
Social Democratic Party (renamed subsequently the Democratic Party). The Demo-
cratic Party forged an alliance with other opposition parties against Iliescu’s party and
became part of the CDR-led coalition government during 1996–2000.
27
A cardboard billionaire is typically a close friend or relative of a well-positioned
politician. Usually, he or she has little, if any, previous experience in the business
sector, or even worse, may have a track record of defaulting on bank loans.
28
See R. Tudor, ‘Guvernul a aprobat stingerea datoriei Petrom catre AVAB’, Cotid-
ianul, 7 June 1999. Available online from http://www.cotidianul.ro (accessed 16 April
2001).
29
T. Papahagi, ‘Semnarea acordului stand-by se amana’, Cotidianul, 22 June 1999.
Available from: http://www.cotidianul.ro/anterioare/1999/economic/ (accessed 4
June 2000).
economy, ran the risk of not being strong enough to deal with the
losses of BANCOREX. If that was that case, then the entire banking
system would have been on the verge of complete chaos and collapse.
Because of this risk, the BCR was fiercely against acquisition as a
solution for the BANCOREX problem. After several days of heated
debates with the government, the SOF and the central bank, the BCR
agreed to acquire BANCOREX but without its losses.
The losses that had arisen from soft loans to unprofitable SOEs
and politically connected businessmen were transferred to a newly
created state agency, the Agency for the Recovery of Bank Assets
(AVAB). Although the total amount of bad loans was estimated at
around 300 million US dollars when BANCOREX declared its liq-
uidity problem, in the end AVAB had to deal with losses of more than
two billion US dollars from non-recoverable loans granted by
BANCOREX.30 According to some estimates, this amount of bad
loans meant that 90 per cent of all loans granted by BANCOREX
since 1992 were non-profitable loans.31
BANCOREX is just one of the major cases where bank irregulari-
ties have triggered bankruptcies; seven banks have been declared
bankrupt in Romania since 1996. However, at the time of BAN-
COREX scandal, the authorities were reluctant to enforce the bank’s
bankruptcy, regardless of actual insolvency, partly because of politi-
cal pressure for state banks to provide support for loss-making state
enterprises, but also because of spillover risks and the potential for
the spread of depositor panic.
CONCLUSIONS
All of the case studies described above beg one question: where were
the regulators? The Romanian central bank (NBR) has been in the
midst of several heated debates about these issues. Some have seen
the NBR as one of the most stabilizing factors in a very fragile
environment. The prestigious magazine The Banker designated the
governor of the NBR the ‘Central Banker of the Year’ in 2001, in
30
I. Serbanescu, ‘BANCOREX – istoria emblematica a Romaniei postdecembriste’,
Revista 22, 38 (1999).
31
E. O. Chirovici, ‘Florin Ionescu a trecut, problemele BANCOREX au ramas’,
Curierul National, 2179, 11 May 1998.
32
‘Central Banker of the Year’, The Banker, 911 (January 2002).
33
Serbanescu, ‘BANCOREX – istoria emblematica’, op. cit.
All too often, bank crises such as those described above were
attributed to fraud and mismanagement on the part of bank direc-
tors. Yet, the problem was not that the managers did not know or
suspect the problems they were about to face. On the contrary, the
problems were clear for many people in decision-making positions.
What hampered any precautionary measure taken, once these early
warning signals appeared, was that those heading the bank into a
crisis were too well placed politically or too well connected. There-
fore, supervisors were not able to take a determinate course of action
against a negative outcome.
This regulatory weakness occurred because basic conditions of a
functioning bank-based system were not in place. Retrospectively,
both the initial conditions and the subsequent evolution of the
Romanian financial system do not suggest that a stock-based finan-
cial system would have been a better choice for Romania. Even
though direct political interference would be less feasible in a
stock-based financial system, the regulatory challenges are much
more daunting, as the recent US corporate governance crisis has
demonstrated.
As the case of Romania has proved, financial restructuring, priva-
tization and deregulation are not always unequivocal solutions to the
transition problems, particularly when political interference and
incomplete reforms allow rent-seeking activities to derail the post-
communist transformation process. Instead of increasing efficiency
in the banking sector, deregulation created rent-seeking opportuni-
ties due to unstable rules and codes in credit and foreign exchange
markets. The financial sector became a source of wealth accumula-
tion for the politically connected elite who used their position in the
political spectrum to get a head start in the licensing of new banks,
to create cardboard billionaires, and to conduct illicit financial deal-
ings. As rent-seeking took precedence over productive financial inter-
mediation, the financial system became more exposed to financial
fragility. Financial liberalization, which was expected to help pull the
country out of economic stagnation, eventually accentuated the eco-
nomic crisis and further weakened the financial and banking sector.
The fragility of the Romanian banking system and its vulnerabil-
ity to political influences maintained throughout the 1990–96 period
were not adequately addressed by the reformist CDR-led 1996–2000
governments. Although the speed of reform has increased signifi-
cantly with regard to privatization, deregulation and macroeconomic
© Government and Opposition Ltd 2004
THE POLITICS OF BANKING IN ROMANIA 475
34
The press has consistently presented cases of corruption and dubious privatiza-
tion deals that benefited the political clientele of the ruling coalition not only
during the early 1990s but also during the 1996–2000 period of CDR-led coalition
government (see for instance the privatization of Romtelecom, the national telecom
operator).