Ti sao m hnh Groupon kh thnh cng ti Vit Nam?

Th t, 27 Thng 10 2010 15:35

Groupon xut hin cch y 2 nm v ang l tn tui tim nng nht trong lnh vc qung co, khuyn mi. Khng c g ngc nhin khi hng lot website nhi ra i, ngay c ti Vit Nam. Lm th no tn ti, khi s lng i th nhiu nh nm mc sau ma? Twitter mt 3 nm t gi tr 1 t la. Facebook mt 2 nm. Th nhng Groupon ch mt 1,5 nm t gi tr 1,35 t la khi c DST u t 135 triu la vo thng 4. Mt ng c vin sng gi trn Internet!

Tm lc v Groupon
tng ca Groupon l ha hn vi cc i tc, cam kt mang cho h mt s lng ln ngi dng xc nh, nh c cc chng trnh khuyn mi tt nht. Thng th gim t 50% n 80% so vi gi gc. M hnh Groupon c nn tng ban u l ThePoint.com do Andrew Mason, mt sinh vin trng nhc m coding thnh lp. Thepoint hot ng da trn nguyn l khi c mt s lng ln ngi quan tm n mt iu no th s xy ra hnh ng thc hin iu . V d: xem phim, chi nhc, i du lch Thepoint hot ng c 18 thng, thu ht c mt lng kha kh user, nhng doanh thu vn khng kh quan (qung co). Khi Thepoint chun b ng ca th mt tia sng le ln, h tm ra key code of the game l cc hot ng mua mt sn phm/dch v no . Sau h i tn site thnh Groupon.com (Groupon = Group + Coupon) chnh thc tp trung hon ton vo hot ng ny.

Hin Groupon c nh gi khong 1.35 t USD sau v u t ca Digital Sky Technologies (Nga) qu tng u t vo Facebook v Zynga. y l mt trong vi startup c valuation hn 1 t USD nhanh nht th gii (18 thng t khi ThePoint i thnh Groupon). Ti Trung Quc hin c t nht 100 bn Groupon clone. Andrew Mason m t Groupon A city guide that provides promotion.

im hay ca m hnh Groupon

y thc cht l m hnh Win Win Win, cc site t phng khch sn online lm t nhiu nm nay. Ch khc bit im online hotel booking l knh bn hng, cn Groupon c dng cho mc ch tip th l chnh.

Khch hng mua c hng vi gi r hn bnh thng kh nhiu Nh cung cp c c hi qung co/thu c lng ln khch hng mi vi chi ph thp (low cost of new customers aqquisition). Hoc h c c hi gii phng hng tn kho/hng trong ma thp im trong thi gian ngn. Groupon thu tin trn chit khu t nh cung cp. V d nh cung cp chit khu 55%, Groupon ly 5%, 50% cn li em cho khch hng. Tm li Groupon thu s tin nh trn lng khch hng ln.

7 l do thnh cng ca Groupon ti M

Bn hng siu gim gi gim t 50% - 90% gi tr Kinh t M & th gii ang khng hong: v th quan tm v gi ca ngi tiu dng M ang mc rt cao. C nhn ha tt a ra cc mt hng ph hp nhu cu v nh cung cp gn ngi mua. Thu tin trc (Negative working capital): Groupon ly tin ca ngi mua trc, tr li cho nh cung cp sau. Cc sn phm/dch v rao bn c cht lng v c s lng. Ni dung tt: Groupon c ti 70 ngi chuyn vit to ra nhng ni dung thu ht ngi mua. Thi gian mua ngn: cc deal xut hin trong mt ngy ti tng thnh ph.

Thun li ca m hnh ny ti VN

Ngi tiu dng VN rt quan tm ti gi. Tm l thch khuyn mi: rt nhiu ngi mua khi c khuyn mi, ngay c khi h khng c nhu cu. Tm l m ng: yn tm c nhiu ngi cng mua mt lc, mua ha theo m ng. Mua bn/gii tr l mt trong nhng hot ng ch cht ca ngi Vit t offline -> online. (nh ti ni trong bi 8 c im ca mt sn phm hon ho, ngi VN a s ch quan tm lm giu hoc gii tr)

Li th ca tng Groupon VN

Tr yu t ti chnh ra th mi site c nhng li th khc nhau phagia.com.vn (Phununet):

Ph n l i tng quan tm ti mua sm -> gi c -> khuyn mi nhiu nht Kinh nghim t chc online shopping biz vi YouShop ca Phununet Hu thun ca Phununet, mt trong nhng website ph n c nhiu user nht hin nay

muachung.vn (VCCorp)

Kinh nghim t chc online shopping ca Enbac H tr t cng ng mua sm Enbac, Muare, Rongbay H tr qung b t Dantri/cafeF v cc site anh em khc. Cng c thanh ton Soha

cucre.vn ca Vatgia

Kinh nghim t chc kinh doanh tng t ca Vatgia Cng ng ngi mua/ngi bn c sn ca Vatgia Cng c thanh ton baokim

nhommua.vn ca a im

Kinh nghim t chc v d liu a im H tr t Rebate Networks, vn u t vo nhiu m hnh Groupon trn nhiu nc khc nhau.

cungmua.vn ca Tichluydiem.com (Cyvee)

Tch hp vi tichluydiem Ngi mua quen vi mt hnh thc tng t khi mua tichluydiem livingsocial.vn (groupbuy.vn)

kenhgia, doimua.vn Khc

Cc n v online khc cng c th t chc hnh thc tng t l Vinabook.com , Tiki.vn hoc Thegioididong Cc player tim nng khng nht c th l cc siu th offline nh Co-op Mart, Big C, Metro. Khng loi tr cc i gia vin thng nh Viettel, Mobifonebit u h ang

mun gii tn hng tn iPhone 3 chng hn :P V hin gi h vn hay c cc gi dch v bn theo nhm. Cc hnh thc thanh ton ca cc Groupon Vit Nam hin ti

Tin mt/Chuyn khon Th mua hng (Groupon VN pht hnh) im/Tin o Th ATM Th tn dng

5 l do cc Groupon clone kh thnh cng ti VN

1. Thanh ton (chuyn c ni hoi)

Khch hng -> Groupon VN: cc phng thc thanh ton cha thun li -> khch hng khng mun mua/mt thi gian -> khng ngi mua deal hon tt. Groupon VN -> khch hng (hon tin nu deal khng thnh cng): nu deal khng thnh cng th vic nhn li tin cng kh phin phc, khng n gin nh M. Chi ph cho khu thanh ton cng cao hn hn chi ph cho vic ny ti M (qua th tn dng).

2. Dch v khch hng/thi phc v nhn vin

VN khi khch hng dng phiu khuyn mi, c bit mng dch v thng khng c nhn vin phc v chu o, thm ch cn coi thng khch hng. Ngay c dch v ca cc thng hiu ln cng c nhiu trng hp tng t xy ra. Dch v cung cp khng c 100% nh ha hn, b ct xn nhiu.

3. Cht lng sn phm/dch v

Mc ng u v cht lng sn phm dch v khng c cao nh M. Nu chn cc sn phm c cht lng cao th s lng cc deal gim st ng k.

4. Hiu bit ca nh cung cp

Nu nh Groupon M hin ang c ti 35.000 nh cung cp ang xp hng c ln sng. VN cc Groupon VN phi i thuyt phc, d d cc nh cung cp -> chi ph sales tng ln.

5. Thng hiu

Do Groupon l m hnh u tin nn thng c bo ch, khch hng M nh n v bn tn truyn ming -> khng tn nhiu chi ph marekting. Cn VN cc m hnh clone trng kh tng t nhau, bo ch chn ni v dotcom, khch hng th khng bit cc clone ny khc nhau ch no -> chi ph cho marketing v educate khch hng cng cao.

Do chit khu cho khch hng rt cao t 50-90% nn phn trm m hnh Groupon c c khng th no ln hn 10%, v s dao ng t 5-10%. Trong khi Chi ph Groupon VN = Chi ph m hnh Groupon M (tng ng ti VN) + chi ph thanh ton (educate th/m hnh mua theo nhm + chi ph th ring/thu tin tn nh) + chi ph marketing + chi ph sales => Chi ph Groupon VN > chi ph Groupon M (tnh tng ng theo chi ph ca tng nc). Tr chi ph sn phm + vn phng ra, ch tnh trong mi deal, xc sut chi ph Groupon VN > 10% chit khu l kh cao => l. iu ny chng t ti sao Groupon tht c th profitable ch sau hn hai nm. Cn Groupon clone th phi tn nhiu thi gian hn. Nhn t gc li ch trong m hnh Win Win Win

Khch hng: ch khi no phn gi tr khuyn mi ln hn nhiu so vi phn bt tin th h mi mua. V d muachung.vn bn iPhone4 vi gi r hn gi th trng vi triu Groupon VN: ang tp thi quen cho th trng, chi ph xem nh chi ph marketing Nh cung cp: c v ch c nh cung cp l sng nht v c li nht v khng mt g nhiu nhng c qung b dch v rng ri nhng tht ra tuy hin gi cc cty kh quan tm n qung b trn mng, nhng Internet cha phi l knh quan trng nht vi h.

Groupon VN c li khi no? Khi

Chi ph gim Chit khu c chia cao hn S lng ngi mua ln

Hai yu t u ch xy ra khi s lng ngi mua ln. Hin gi cc Groupon VN chia nhau mt lng ngi mua cha ln Tm li l m hnh Groupon VN c u im l kch thch mua hng trn mng, nhng vn cn mc kt hai bi ton c ca Internet VN l thanh ton v thi quen ca ngi dng. Groupon VN ch c th thnh cng khi khu thanh ton c gii quyt hoc khi c mt player thc s chi sng v c mt li th hon ton hn hn cc player khc thu ht ton b cc khch hng quen vi loi hnh ny. Ai s l ngi c li th nht ??? - Bi vit bi Minh Bui -

M hnh kinh doanh Groupon n r ti Vit Nam

Tags: Vit Nam, m hnh, sn phm, khch hng, doanh nghip, trc tuyn, qung co, Website, ngi, thnh, coupon, li

Khch hng tham gia Groupon trc tuyn c c hi mua c nhiu sn phm hay dch v gi r c khuyn mi ln n 90%. Trong khi doanh nghip c qung co hiu qu vi chi ph

thp. Groupon l mng mua sm bt ngun ti M, vn c ghp t Group (nhm khch hng) v Coupon (phiu mua hng) phc v vic mua hng gi r trn mng. Khu hiu ca h l: "Hy nhanh tay, c hi ny ch ko di trong vi gi". Cc mt hng trn Groupon c khuyn mi t 30% n 90% trong mt thi gian nht nh. Tuy nhin, y l m hnh mua gim gi theo s ng nn khch hng ch mua c sn phm gim gi khi c mt lng ngi cng tham gia.

Giao din chnh tang Groupon ti M.

V d nh sn phm A gi 100.000 ng nhng coupon bn trn mng ch c gi 30.000 ng. Khch hng mua trc tuyn coupon ny mua sn phm A ti cc ca hng vi gi 30.000 ng, tit kim c 70.000 ng vi iu kin phi c 100 ngi cng mua coupon ny. Theo ng Bi c Minh, Gim c Sn phm mng HerVietnam, y thc cht l m hnh kinh doanh win-win-win, c ba bn tham gia l doanh nghip bn sn phm, trang mng bn hng trc tuyn v ngi tiu dng u c li. u tin doanh nghip s a ln website Groupon cc sn phm gim gi. Khi c lng ngi mua coupon ln th giao dch ny mi c hiu lc, nu khng website s tr li tin cho khch hng. Khch hng c li khi mua hng nhiu khi c gim n 90% so vi mc gi bnh thng.

Doanh nghip khng gp ri ro v khng phi tr tin ng qung co trn website m vn tip cn c trc tip vi khch hng mc tiu ca mnh. Groupon em n gii php hiu qu i vi cc doanh nghip va v nh c ngn sch cho qung co v marketing eo hp. Nu mt website Groupon c 100.000 thnh vin th thng tin ca doanh nghip s c gi min ph hng ngy ti tt c thnh vin ny. Tnh ph qung co khong 100 ng mt ngi th mi ngy doanh nghip tit kim c mi triu ng. Cn cc website Groupon cng thu c li nhun t qung co online, chit khu ca cc cng ty bn hng gim gi trn mng.

M hnh Groupon xut hin ti Vit Nam.

Ti Vit Nam, cc website hot ng theo m hnh Groupon bt u xut hin vo khong thng 7/2010 vi nhiu trang nh cungmua, phagia, cucre, groupbuy... i din cucre cho bit website ang phc v cc nhu cu n ung, dch v gii tr, spa, mua sm thi trang, cng ngh... ti H Ni v TP HCM vi gi lun gim t 30-90%. Khch hng c th t mua trc tip trn website hoc gi in t mua qua hotline, thanh ton trc tuyn hoc tr tin mt v nhn vin ca website s mang ti tn tay chic th Coupon c gi tr tng ng cho khch hng. im khc bit ca cucre l vi bt c s lng ngi mua l bao nhiu th sn phm, dch v u c hiu lc thc hin ch khng cn phi iu kin yu cu mt lng ngi nht nh

cng mua sn phm .

Th trng Groupon rt tim nng v s gp phn thc y thng mi in t ti Vit Nam.

Cn ng H Quang Khnh, ph trch cungmua, nh gi m hnh Groupon ti Vit Nam rt tim nng v c tc pht trin cao. Trang cungmua ch mi ra i cha y 4 thng nhng phc v gn 20.000 khch hng v c danh sch hn 100.000 ngi ng k nhn cc thng tin khuyn mi hng ngy. "Giao dch Buffet Dn K chng ti bn c 4.000 phiu trong thi gian k lc ch trong vng 11 gi", ng Khnh chia s. Hin ti cc website Groupon no ti Vit Nam c dch v giao hng v thu tin tn nh, c lng ln thnh vin quen vi vic mua hng trc tuyn s c li th ln. Hn na cc website ny phi ngun lc ti chnh tn ti trong mt khong thi gian di v trc mt cha th c li nhun nhanh chng. "Vn cn nhiu tr ngi m hnh Groupon thnh cng ti Vit Nam nh phng thc thanh ton cha thun li, vic hon li tin khi giao dch khng thnh cng kh phin phc, chi ph cho khu thanh ton vn cn cao... Tuy nhin Groupon s to thi quen mua hng trc tuyn cho ngi dng Vit Nam t thc y thng mi in t pht trin", ng Bi c Minh phn tch. M hnh kinh doanh Groupon c tn ban u l ThePoint.com do mt sinh vin ti M thnh lp nm 2008. Sau mt thi gian khng thu c doanh thu t qung co, ThePoint.com i tn thnh Groupon.com (Groupon = Group + Coupon) v hot ng theo m hnh bn phiu gim

gi theo nhm. Hin Groupon.com rt thnh cng vi m hnh kinh doanh ny, t mc li nhun ln n 500 triu USD v va c nh gi khong 1,35 t USD. Groupon cng va t chi thng v mua li ca Google ln n 6 t USD. H Mai

Cc website Groupon mua chung Vit nam

Posted by admin on Mar 1st, 2011 // 2 Comments Phong tro mua coupon gim gi Vit Nam ang si ni hn bao gi ht. Tht ra phong tro ny rt ph bin vi thnh cng nh chp ca trang web Groupon ni ting, xut hin cch y 2 nm v ang l tn tui tim nng nht trong lnh vc qung co, khuyn mi. Khng c g ngc nhin khi hng lot website nhi ra i, ngay c ti Vit Nam. Lm th no tn ti, khi s lng i th nhiu nh nm mc sau ma? Cc website ny u c im chung l bn coupon gim gi & khuyn mi cho khch hng, ch yu tp trung khu vc TP. H Ch MInh v H Ni. Hin cc website Vit Nam vn trong qu trnh tranh ua nhau, nhng vn cha c trang no tht s ni tri, cng DiaDiemAnUong ch xem web no s t c thnh cng nht nh. Cc hnh thc thanh ton ca cc Groupon Vit Nam hin ti: + Tin mt/Chuyn khon + Th mua hng (Groupon VN pht hnh) + im/Tin o + Th ATM, Th tn dng

1. Muachung.vn
n v ch qun: Cng ty c phn truyn thng Vit Nam VC Corp (Knh 14) Hnh thc thanh tan: th Visa/Master, th ATM ng k s dng internet banking, Thanh ton Online c m bo bi Soha Payment im mnh: Phiu Mua Hng in T s c gi qua SMS v email cho qu khch ch trong vng 1h sau khi mua hng thnh cng. Nhiu deal hp dn. Gi email confirm sau khi t hng. im yu: kh mua c nu khng c ti khan ngn hng Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 34,499

2.VNdoan.com
n v ch qun: Cng ty TNHH Cng ngh mng Thin Hy Long Hnh thc thanh tan: nganluong.vn, tin mt, chuyn khon qua ATM

im mnh: Hin ti l website bn coupon nhiu thnh ph nht VN ( bao gm TPHCM, H Ni, Hi Phng v Cn Th). Nhiu deal hp dn vi mc gim gi cao t 50% -100%, giao coupon ti nh min ph, b phn CSKH support khch nhanh, nhit tnh. Mi bn b tham gia mua hng c thng tin. im yu: Khng thanh ton c bng th Visa, Master Xp hng Alexa (28/22/2011): 92,099

3. nhomMua.com
n v ch qun: DiaDiem.com Hnh thc thanh tan: PayPal, Payoo, tin mt trc tip im mnh: giao th min ph (trong TP H Ch Minh) v nhn thanh ton bng tin mt ti nh. Nhiu deal hp dn. Nhn vin gi in thoi confirm sau khi t hng. im yu: khng thanh tan c bng th Visa/Master Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 39,582

4. cungmua.com
n v ch qun: Tichluydiem.com (Cyvee) Hnh thc thanh tan: thanh tan bng im c trn tichluydiem.com, chuyn khan ngn hng, tin mt trc tip im mnh: Nhn vin ca Cng Mua s n tn ni giao phiu cho bn trong vng 48h sau khi bn ng k im yu: s lng xut hin deal mi hi t Xp hng Alexa (28/22/2011): 93,427

5. Deal.zing.vn
n v ch qun: Vinagame VNG Corporation Hnh thc thanh tan: duy nht Zing Xu, c th i ra Zing Xu bng cch np tin vo ti khan bng th game, h thng th Smartlink nhng u phi i ra Zing Xu. im mnh: ngun lc di do t Vinagame, deal kh hp dn. im yu: thanh tan bng h thng ring Zing Xu gy kh khn cho ngi mua, cch thc np tin v chuyn i rc ri v khng thn thin, cng l l do ti sao cc sn phm ca Zing bn vn khng chy bng 3 website bn trn. Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 406 (alexa n theo zing.vn nn ko tnh)

6. Hotdeal.vn
n v ch qun: Vinabook Hnh thc thanh tan: tr tin trc tip, chuyn khon im mnh: giao coupon ti nh min ph im yu: mua xong chng ai giao hng hay t confirm g c Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 81,413

7. runhau.vn
n v ch qun: Cng ty c phn on Kt Cartel Holdings JSC Hnh thc thanh tan: tin mt trc tip, chuyn khon, Mobi V, Th im mnh: pht trin t website reedeems.com vi kh nhiu gim gi hp dn, giao coupon ti nh min ph im yu: coupon nhn khng bt mt v an tan (ch l t giy A4 c ng du) Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 462,707

8. cucre.vn
n v ch qun: Vatgia Hnh thc thanh tan: c bo m thanh ton bi baokim.vn im mnh: giao coupon ti nh, nhn vin gi t confirm im yu: bt buc phi cung cp email khi bt u xem website, c th tnh ph vn chuyn Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 84,571

9. phagia.com.vn
n v ch qun: Phununet.com Hnh thc thanh tan: th Visa/Master, th ATM im mnh: ngi mua c th vo yu cu ph gi 1 ni no im yu: tuy nhin chc nng yu cu ph gi hi lung tung v kh hiu Xp hng Alexa (28/02/2011): 219,289

10. kenhgia.com
n v ch qun: PMTIS, Co Ltd Hnh thc thanh tan: son tin nhn nhn m khuyn mi ??? im mnh: ch cn gi tin nhn in thoi nhn M Khuyn Mi im yu: cch thc mua hi lung tung kh hiu, nhn tin ri vn ko thy m (lm tn 1.000) =.= Xp hng Alexa (13/12/2010): 2,096,891 S cung cp thng tin tng hp ln MUACHUNGGIAMGIA.COM

1 2 3 4 5 nh gi 6 7 8 9 10

Cn st Groupon

Hi Phm TGVT-PCWVN - Ch hn 1 nm Groupon lan ta 1 thng ip c tnh ton cu: mua theo nhm c gi tt nht.

Groupon

khp

mi

ni

Vi thng gn y, gii truyn thng th gii tn nhiu giy mc xoay quanh mt ci tn: Groupon. Groupon l cng ty ang s hu website www.groupon.com v h t chi mc gi 6 t USD khi i gia Google ngh mua li hi u thng 12/2010. Khng dng li , vin cnh cng ty ny to ra buc cc tn tui khc trong ngnh ng lot xut qun, to nn mt cn st mi trn th trng tiu th. Ch mt hai ngy sau khi Groupon t chi li ngh ca Google, Amazon cng b u t 175 triu USD vo Living Social (www.livingsocial.com) website c coi l i th trc tip ca Groupon. LivingSocial bang Washington (M), tp trung vo cc giao dch trong phm vi nh hng, bar, rp ht. So vi Groupon, LivingSocial c quy m nh hn, th trng phn ln M, ri n Canada, Anh, Ai Len v c vi s ngi ng k khong 10 triu. Khng lu sau, cng c tm kim Baidu, i th s 1 ca Google ti Trung Quc, tung ra website kiu mua theo nhm ca ring h (s.baidu.com). Khc vi Google hay Amazon, Baidu khng i

tm cc cng ty sn c mua li m t lm. Trong vi thng, Baidu cho bit c hn 1 triu ti khon ngi dng, phm vi hot ng khi im ch yu ti Thng Hi, Trung Quc . LivingSocial v Baidu ch l 2 v v tiu biu v din ra gn nh ng thi vi s kin Groupon lc u vi Google. Thc t trong thi gian qua c hng ngn website cung cp dch v mua theo nhm trn ton cu. Thm ch Microsoft cng m thm gia nhp th trng ny bng cch mua c phn website cudo.com.au c. Nhiu ngi cho rng sp ti Groupon s b cnh tranh d di v cch hot ng ca website qu d bt chc. Tuy nhin, chnh bn thn gim c iu hnh (CEO) ca Groupon l Andrew Manson cho bit khng bt ng v chuyn m iu cn lm lc ny l to cht lng cho 70% th phn ang nm gi. Gi tr ca Groupon

Groupon ang l ch ngm ca Google.

Nm 2010, nn kinh t ton cu, nht l kinh t M, cha phi sng sa. Nhng theo phn tch ca TechCrunch th doanh thu gp hng nm ca Groupon ln n 2 t USD; cng c kin khc cho rng thc t con s t hn, khong hn 800 triu USD. D l con s no i na, Groupon lm nh u t ph Wall thm kht. Groupon hin ang kinh doanh hn 400 thnh ph khp ni trn th gii, khong 3000 nhn vin, gn 40 triu ti khon v cc con s ny cha c du hiu dng li.

Ngi dng s d nhn ra gi tr ca Groupon l s dng dch v ny s mua c hng gi r, nhng ng sau , Groupon cn gip doanh nghip thc hin chin thut i h gi bc vo th trng nhanh chng, tit kim chi ph truyn thng trn bo ch, truyn hnh, t bm Khng ch th, Groupon cn khai ph 1 th trng qung co da trn v tr (location based advertising) m theo Gartner c tnh n nm 2014 gi tr ln n 7,4 t USD. V mt l do khc Groupon tr thnh ngi sao l s c mt ng lc ca Groupon ngay trong khong thi gian 2009-2010 khi kinh t ton cu ang suy gim trm trng. Vi tm l tht lng buc bng, Groupon gip cho ngi dn mua sm c ci mnh cn vi gi r, thm ch c sn phm/dch v ch cn 10% so vi gi mua bnh thng C mi 1 ngi nhn chut vo chc nng mua ca Groupon th h phi in y thng tin chnh xc nh e-mail, s in thoi, a ch, gii tnh Groupon ang s hu gn 40 triu dng d liu nh th hn 400 thnh ph khc nhau, t Bc M cho ti chu Thi Bnh Dng. u nm 2011, Groupon c mt n , Israel, Nam Phi v i Loan.
Vit Nam, c khng t website kiu nh Groupon, a phn vn tp trung vo ngnh

Vy ti sao Google li mun mua Groupon? Google mun c Groupon v ngun d liu v khch hng cng ty ny ang nm gi. Google ang thng lnh th trng tm kim theo t kha; h c bn v hng lot cng ngh b sung nn nu c Groupon, Google s tip tc hnh thnh nn 1 th trng mi v ng nhin cng cng c v th lm ch cuc chi. Khi m khai thc li nhun ca h khng ch l tm kim theo ng cnh t kha 4 hay 5 t USD li nhun hng nm, m c th s gp i, gp 3 hay nhiu hn na. Groupon tin

ngh nh n ung, spa, du lch khoanh vng chnh vn l H Ni v TP.HCM. Cch thc hin cc giao dch cng khng khc g my vi Groupon. Ngi dng s nhn chut vo mua, thanh ton v nhn phiu gim gi. im khc bit so vi th trng nc ngoi l phn ln thanh ton trc tip, giao phiu-tr tin. Mt s website ang ph bin Vit Nam l www.muachung.vn; www.nhommua.com; www.cungmua.vn; http://deal.zing.vn v www.hotdeal.vn. bc

T chi 6 t USD ca Google trong nm 2010, c khng t ngi trong Groupon phi tc li tic r. Th nhng, mi y nht, t The New York Time bnh lun, nu pht hnh c phiu ra cng chng (IPO) vo nm 2011, gi Groupon c th ln 15 t USD. Phn ng cc nh phn tch ng h cch lm ca Groupon khi cho rng Groupon khng cn phi vi vng tr thnh n em ca Google v h ngun lc, ti nguyn t mnh i ln. Bc i hin ti ca Groupon lc ny l tip tc m rng th trng, bt tay vi cc i gia lin ngnh, mua li cc website c m hnh tng t bt k chu lc no nhm to nn 1 chui cung ng gi r xuyn lc a. Kinh t ton cu cha ti sng li l c hi Groupon pht trin v gi vng lnh th ca mnh. Tng t Facebook lm, Groupon s to nn nhng thi quen trong cuc sng ca ngi dn: ln mng mua hng gi r. C th thy rng, trong thi kh, Groupon gip ngi dng khi cng h i mua hng vi cht lng, gi cnh tranh. kin chuyn gia Quc Hip, Gim c Chin lc Kinh doanh, Qu u t Mo him IDG Ventures Vit Nam Trong mt thi gian ngn sau khi xut hin M, Groupon nhanh chng thnh cng ln v nhanh chng c sao chp nhiu th trng khc. Trung Quc c hn 100 cng ty hot ng theo m hnh ny, Vit Nam tnh n nay cng c khong 30 cng ty hot ng tng t. Gii CNTT l thnh phn dn dt s lan rng ca m hnh ny Vit Nam. Hng ha dch v tham gia cc chng trnh rt a dng, c th l mt ba n nh hng n dch v spa, c khi l my nghe nhc s hay thm ch l mt cn h d n. Mua theo nhm c li cho tt c cc bn tham gia, vi cc c s cung cp dch v, hng ha, hnh thc ny gip qung b doanh nghip ca h vi chi ph thp (i khi ch l chi ph vi bc nh v

vi dng qung co) ti ng i tng khch hng hn hnh thc qung co thng thng; ngoi vic gip khai thc cng sut tha ca i ng, doanh nghip cn c th t t chc nhng t mua theo nhm cho chnh h. i vi khch hng, h c tip cn vi vi chc n vi trm loi hng ha dch v khc nhau c gi thp hn nhiu gi bn thng thng, c lc ln n 80%. Hng li nhiu nht t m hnh ny c l chnh l ton x hi. T s tham gia ca gn 30 doanh nghip ny, c mt s lng ng k cng n vic lm c to ra doanh nghip theo m hnh ny, cc cng ty tham gia cung cp dch v hng ha trc tip v cc nh cung cp u vo. Hn na, lu thng hng ha v tin t vn hnh u n cng c ch cho x hi. Mt li ch gin tip khc v khng nh cho x hi l nhn thc v thng mi in t c lan truyn mt cch t nhin nht: li ch kinh t. Vi doanh nghip Vit Nam, thng mi in t l mt khi nim khng xa l nhng cha bao gi s tham gia chung ca h li r rng nh lc ny v h cp nht c thng tin doanh s, c nghe phn hi ca khch hng v nhng g c v cha c, l c s h hon thin dch v ca mnh. i vi khch hng, vic mua trc tip hay c ai mua cho mt sn phm hay dch v thng qua m hnh ny s em li cm gic thn thin vi thng mi in t vn lu nay h c th bit n nhng vn cn thm d v d chng. T iu ny dn ti n hai d on: mt trong thi ngn sp ti, qung co trc tuyn s pht trin nhanh hn so vi nhng nm trc y, v hai thng mi in t s c thm nhiu giao dch, trc mt vi hnh thc thanh ton COD (giao hng-nhn tin) v dn dn s l thng qua cc loi th tn dng.

Faith Merino's The Deal Groupon's model: Irrational, but it works

Why Topix CEO Chris Tolles thinks Groupon will succeed despite the quirkiness of its business model
Its been dark times for Groupon ever since the group buying giant filed to go public. The company has been shredded in the mediaso much so that it published a mostly-funny but sortof-sad retaliation blog post. And now it looks like the SEC is delaying its IPO over its less-thanclear accounting methods. But does Groupon deserve the beating that the media and government have been dishing out? Not everyone thinks so. The fact is that regardless of how irrational Groupons business model and accounting practices may seemand indeed, regardless of how irrational it may seem for merchants to sign up with Groupon and give away half their revenue it works. Why? Because thats what people want, according to Topix CEO Chris Tolles. I chatted with Tolles recently about Topix, the local news aggregator, and the current state of all things local. When the topic of Groupon came up, he had some interesting points to make.

Now, first, I should say: I love Groupon. LOVE my Groupons. Love my cheap meals and facials. But facts are facts, and some of them arent painting a pretty picture of Groupons future. The company has some screwy accounting practicesits S-1 form lists revenue, then gross profit, then net income. The problem is that what Groupon counts as revenue includes the merchants cut as well. So gross profit is what Groupon walks away with after the merchants cut has been divvied out. But Groupon isnt calculating gross profit after advertising and marketing costs. Its a little concerning. And then theres the question of whether or not Groupon even works. Studies have shown that some merchantsnamely restaurantsdont really benefit from the Groupon model. They submit their deal, get a rush of cheap, ill-mannered customers who dont tip, and after giving up half their revenue, theyre not likely to see any of those customers again. People will get tired of it and when economic times improve, retailers may not be so eager to give away restaurant seats if more and more people have discretionary income. Those seats may be full and they may not need to give them away at discount, said Jeffrey Grau, an analyst for eMarketer.com. And as for the people: Daily deals are attracting people that are deal sensitive, not loyal. They see it like a game. Theyre drawn based on impulse, seeking the next thrill. Theyre very different from people who shop on online coupon sitesthose are disciplined shoppers who plan a trip to the grocery store and go on coupon sites to get discounts on the items they want. They take a much more tactical, surgical approach to getting the deals they want and theyre more loyal to their retailers. But Tolles argues that its the perception of being busy that merchants are after. Youre selling marketing on credit to people who cant do it rationally. You have to run your business on a perception, not on a rational deal. The perception of the restauranteur is key, he explained. Giving people something they want versus something that makes sense works much, much better. Based on that logic, Tolles claims, Groupon is not going to go gentle into that good night any time soon.

The Problem with Groupon's Business Model

12:05 PM Wednesday July 13, 2011 | Comments (52)
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Groupon is poised for its debut as a public company. One of the fastest growing of the recent hatch of Internet darlings, the deal-a-day company was worth $5.3 billion to Google just a few short months ago, in November of 2010. Somewhat astonishingly, Google's offer was spurned and the company set its sights on going public. The smart money went along, with Groupon valued at $15-20 billion, according to some observers anticipating rich pickings in the IPO-tocome. But not so fast. Just a couple of weeks ago, I suggested in an article published in the European Financial Review that Groupon's business model suffers from some alarming weaknesses. Using a diagnostic quiz that grades the business model on sevearl factors, each on a scale of 1 to 7, I scored Groupon like this:
There are relatively few switching costs in the Groupon model a customer signs up for free, the process is not onerous or difficult, and there is no customer loyalty, special discount, or other antiswitching incentives built into the program. Give it a 2. The model is based on individual transactions users do not subscribe to Groupon; rather, each payment is transactional. That's a 1. The user interface for Groupon offers no particular advantage, as the offers come by email. Say a 2. The benefits of Groupon (discounted prices and access to vendors you may not have known about) are largely optional or discretionary it isn't the kind of service one uses for essential goods and services. Perhaps a 2.

Groupon does have a strong network externality effect, as its business relies on hundreds of representatives who sign up hundreds of retailers. Let's say that's a 7. There are many and ongoing benefits customers might derive, so that would be a 6. The model does build a form of relationship, but not an embedded or particularly sticky one. Let's say that is a 4. There is modest impact on the customers' experience, as it could mean a new discovery or affordable items, let's say a 4. The model is more or less standalone (at this point) although it could be extended to national campaigns and might be a competitor to firms such as eBay. Let's say a 4. The offers are co-created with the merchants and to some extent the members due to the tipping point nature of the business, so let's say a 6. Using this analysis, Groupon's business model would rank 36 out of a possible maximum of 70. This would be a 'view with alarm' to me, as there are several elements of the model that do not create stickiness, loyalty or a barrier to competitive imitation. As customers grow more sophisticated, more numb to the idea of a daily email which may or may not offer them something they want and competitors come up with more fine-tuned offers, Groupon's model shows some vulnerability. As a general rule, I would prefer a score over 40.

Not long after that was published, on Friday, July 8, 2011, the Wall Street Journal printed an article entitled "Groupon's Boston Problem: Copycats." The article describes the emergence of dozens of competitors to Groupon, with customers frequently playing one site off against another, making the benefit of buying from any given site more uncertain and diminishing the competitive differentiation between them. In addition, merchants whose goods and services are featured on the sites are now being courted by more players, making them less loyal and less likely to be prepared to pay rich premiums for the sites' directing new customers to their store locations. Further, the benefits to both customers and merchants are likely to drop as the market is flooded with look-alike offers and the advantages of using one site over another decline. I'm afraid that I still don't see much long-term robustness in Groupon's model. They (and their investors) may yet regret letting that $5.7 billion slip away.

5 Interesting Observations on the Groupon Model from Academic Research

By Sean Ammirati / June 3, 2011 10:00 AM / 5 Comments Hacker News Share

The number of daily deal sites is growing at an amazing rate. Recent data from daily deal aggregator Yipit, shows there are now over 480. The number has grown by almost a factor of 10 over the last year (chart below). Entrepreneurs definitely have become interested in this model. The largest, Groupon, is actually being studied by some leading academic researchers. We thought it'd be worth summarizing five interesting observations from this research. A word from our sponsor:
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Summary of Research being Referenced

Early research was done by Dr. Utpal Dholakia at Rice University. He published a paper summarizing a survey he completed of 150 different businesses.
"The promotion was profitable for 66% and unprofitable for 32% of respondents. When compared to businesses with profitable Groupon promotions, those with unprofitable promotions reported significantly lower rates of both spending by Groupon users beyond it's face value (25% vs. 50%) and return rates to purchases from the business again at full prices (13% vs 31%)"

Interestingly,82% of those who found it 'unprofitable' some will run another Groupon again. This is closer to (but still lower than) Groupon's internal number of 97% of Groupon merchants who ask to run a campaign again.

Based on this research, Dr. Dholakia and a group of researchers at Harvard have both written papers further examining this issue of profitability. I'd encourage you to read both Dholakia's recent paper "What Makes Groupon Promotions Profitable For Business?" and The Harvard Business School working paper by Edelman, Jaffe and Kominers, "To Groupon or Not to Groupon: The Profitability of Deep Discounts" The HBS Working Paper focuses on building out a model that explores how "consumer demographics and offer details interact to shape the profitability of voucher discounts." The paper by Dr. Dholakia explores 5 hypothesis and tests them using a linear regression against the 150 data points from his original survey mentioned above. He does acknowledge that the 150 business's who respond form a "convenience sample" and therefore may have limitations but he also points out that it's diverse across the Groupon client base and a "41.7% response rate can be characterized as 'healthy' and in line with published research."

5 Observations
Getting back to the goal of this post, I'd like to explore 5 interesting observations from both these studies: Observation 1: Theoretically there are two benefits for retailers doing daily deals offers The HBS paper opens by exploring two benefits of Groupon like offers for retailers:
"First, discount vouchers can facilitate price discrimination, allowing merchants to offer distinct prices to different consumer populations. In order for voucher offers to yield profitable price discrimination, the consumers who are offered the voucher discounts must be more price-sensitive (with regards to participating merchants' goods or services) than the population as a whole. Second, discount vouchers can benefit merchants through advertising, by informing consumers of a merchant's existence. For these advertising effects to be important, a merchant must begin with sufficiently low recognition among prospective consumers."

Observation 2: Spending beyond face value at redemption is not predictive of profitability

Dr. Dholakia tested 3 hypotheses for attributes that would increase the likelihood of a profitable Groupon: "A) New customer acquisition efficacy, (B) spending beyond the Groupon's face value, and (C) repeat full-price purchase." Interestingly, the first and third factors were predictive but the second was not. He explains:
"It appears that for firms running a Groupon promotion, simply getting new customers to purchase the Groupon even when they do not spend beyond its face value on the occasion of redemption is sufficient to have a profitable promotion. This result supports the importance of the Groupon promotion as a means for the small or medium-sized business to receive exposure in a new customer base."

Observation 3: A larger face value & redemption duration helps attract new customers but the discount does not Based again on Dr. Dholakia's survey data, it appears that while face value and redemption duration are important to attracting new customers the amount of the discount didn't appear significant. As the paper states:
"The results offer interesting practical guidance to firms suggesting that they may be better served offering a coupon with a higher face value but a lower depth of discount to garner a profitable Groupon promotion."

Observation 4: If possible, don't allow using multiple vouchers The HBS model explores the impact of allowing customers to purchase multiple vouchers. While this certainly doesn't immediately cause a Groupon offer to become unprofitable, as the model shows it's ideal to not allow the use of multiple vouchers at the same time. While this may be difficult to police, definitely something worth striving for and something new initiatives (like Google Wallet and Offers) should take into consideration as a design goal. Observation 5: Repeat Customers Driven by Employee Satisfaction One of the most interesting hypothesis tested by Dr. Dholakia in my opinion was looking at employee satisfaction with the Groupon as a predictor for customers returning to purchase products at full price. The linear regression showed these attributes to strongly correlated. While there has been plenty of research over the years showing employee satisfaction is predictive of

customer satisfaction, it's interesting to see this carry forward to the implications for the success of Groupon offers.

Future Investigations
It's clear that there is a lot more research to be done in the ivory towers of academia as entrepreneurs change the way we buy and sell things each day. From an academic perspective, I'd love to see additional quantitative surveys from more retailers and also (as Dr. Dholakia himself acknowledged in his paper) looking at other daily deal sites such as Living Social. What types of questions would you like to see academic researchers explore in this area?
Dubai Shopping Mall photo by Uggboy, SM Mall photo by Jun Acullador, Mall of America photo by Aine D

Why Groupon Is Poised For Collapse

Rocky Agrawal posted on Monday, June 13th, 2011 216 Comments

Editors note:This guest post is part of an in-depth series looking at the daily deal industry written by Rocky Agrawal, an entrepreneur who has worked on local products since 1995. Read Part I, Part II, and Part III also. He blogs at reDesign and Tweets @rakeshlobster. Imagine youre a small business owner. You have to choose between two propositions:

1. You can pay $62,500 for marketing. Youll get a whole lot of customers coming through your door. No guarantees if they will ever come back, but theyll come once. 2. Ill pay you $21,000. You get $7,000 in about 5 days, another $7,000 in 30 days and the remainder in 60 days. In exchange, youll give my customers cheap products for the next year.

Ive been working on local for a long time and I know its hard to get small businesses to spend money on advertising. Really hard. Even getting $200 a month ($2,400 a year) is a high hurdle to meet. Theres no way a business will sign up for #1. Most merchants would laugh you out of the store if you asked for $60,000. Except they are. In droves. Although they sound completely different, #1 and #2 are really the sameits the Groupon business model. Businesses are being sold incredibly expensive advertising campaigns that are disguised as no risk ways to acquire new customers. In reality, theres a lot of risk. With a newspaper ad, the maximum you can lose is the amount you paid for the ad. With Groupon, your potential losses can increase with every Groupon customer who walks through the door and put the existence of your business at risk. Groupon is not an Internet marketing business so much as it is the equivalent of a loan sharking business. The $21,000 that the business in this example gets for running a Groupon is essentially a very, very expensive loan. They get the cash up front, but pay for it with deep discounts over time. (This post applies to Groupon operations in the United States and Canada; its different in other parts of the world.) In many cases, running a Groupon can be a terrible financial decision for merchants. Groupons financials also raise questions about its ongoing viability. Buying Groupon stock could be as bad a deal for investors as running a Groupon offer is for merchants. This is my opinion, but I have some facts to back it up. Traffic is not necessarily profitable traffic Groupon can clearly deliver customers. But in order to know if it makes financial sense as a customer acquisition tool, merchants need to know two key numbers:
1. The proportion of Groupon customers who are already their customers 2. How often new customers come back.

The higher the first number, the worse their deal will perform. The higher the second number, the better their deal does.

But for most businesses, these critical numbers are impossible to know. Groupons havent been out long enough to generate this data. And Groupons tracking methods arent collecting this data. (My intuition is that Groupon doesnt want to know.) Groupon touts a win-win proposition. But the reality is that Groupon usually wins and merchants usually lose. The merchant agreement is one of the most lopsided Ive seen. Its rare that Groupon loses . . . until merchants figure out how to cheat. The hidden auction Underlying Groupons success is an auction. Its not explicit, like Googles AdWords bidding platform, but the economic effects are similar. The fact that Groupon runs daily deals creates artificial scarcity and drives up pricing to absurd levels. Even with four deals a day in a given market, youre talking about fewer than 1,500 deals a year. The bid in this auction is the total revenue that goes to Groupon. Thats a function of the value of the voucher, the negotiated revenue share and the number of deals that will be sold. The number of deals that will be sold is a function of, among other factors, how deep a discount and how commonly needed the product is. The larger the discount, the greater the volume. All of this creates an incentive to drive up Groupons revenues. It also provides an incentive for salespeople to sell bigger and bigger deals, some of which might not be suitable for a small business. Because of all the hype around Groupon, salespeople are able to use the Whos Who modelsell what an honor it is to be specially selected to be featured on Groupon. Groupons process for selecting which deals it runs has little transparency. Its not always the highest bids that win; sometimes, lower value bids win just to keep subscribers opening their emails. (In this case, think of merchants bidding with discounts, so the deeper the discount, the higher the bid). Ive also heard from merchants who say Groupon has changed their deals at the last minute to make them more profitable for Groupon. Cash is king Many small businesses are struggling for cash and the Groupon sales pitch resonates. Marketing with no upfront payment. You get cash within days. A steady stream of customers. This is not a new idea. Rewards Network has been offering restaurants cash upfront in exchange for discounted meals over time. (But on more generous terms than Groupon.) Groupons S-1 calls tough economic times a risk; but the recession was really their opportunity. As other forms of credit dried up, struggling businesses jumped at the chance to get cash now in exchange for discounting their product later. The real risk for Groupon is that the economy improves to the point that businesses dont have to resort to deep discounting. Repeat Groupon businesses

Some of the analysis of Groupons long term prospects has pointed to repeat Groupon offers from merchants as evidence of a viable long-term model. How can a repeat customer be bad, right? For a Groupon merchant, a repeat customer is a great thing. But for Groupon itself, a repeat customer can be a sign of trouble ahead. I had been struggling to understand why some businesses ran repeat Groupons or cycled among the various daily deal vendors, given that the economics clearly suck if you cant drive repeat traffic. Some let the same customer buy 3 or more of the same deal. Thats a clear no-no for a loss-leader designed to acquire new customers. A conversation with Forkfly (a Groupon Now competitor) CEO Paul Wagner was enlightening. He suggested that they were doing what struggling families do when they max out a credit cardthey get another one. That makes perfect sense. Revenue from subsequent daily deals help pay for the obligations created by the first one.

Receipts look like the one at right. Lots of product going out, staff to pay and little cash coming in. Taking out another Groupon loan is a quick fix. (If I were a sales rep, Id have that date marked on my calendar for follow up. I know we did 50/50 last time, but Im thinking Groupon gets 70% this time.) Hacking Groupon How would you exploit an overpriced loan? Dont pay it back. Assume that youre a business that is unscrupulous and youre looking to make a quick buck. You could create a wildly generous deal that would sell like crazy. In about 30 days, youll have 2/3 of your share of the deal. Then you shut down operations. It also works for businesses that are just having a tough time. As critical as I am of Groupon, the slam dunk case is to sign up with Groupon if youre going bankrupt. I strongly encourage every business that is about to go under to call Groupon. (Dont tell them Rocky sent you.) It makes total financial senseas a Hail Mary play. If youre lucky, the upfront cash will be enough to help you stay afloat. If not, well, you were already going out of business. It may be your best option. In the short term, youre actually helping Groupon because theyre being valued on revenue and no one is taking into account risk. Groupon is essentially holding a portfolio of loans backed by the receivables of small businesses. If a business goes under, consumers will come back to Groupon for their money back. Unless Groupon is actually doing credit assessments on businesses that it chooses to feature, this is a big risk for Groupon. The onerous terms for participating in Groupon also create an adverse selection problem. The most successful businesses dont need Groupon for customer acquisition or financing. The assumption is that nothing will go wrong and all of these loans will be paid back. (At least the subprime mortgage lenders were able to sell that risk off to Wall Street and AIG.) Like the mortgage lenders, Groupon doesnt know exactly how much risk it has piled up. Because some merchants track redemptions on paper, Groupon has no way of knowing how many unredeemed Groupons are outstanding. If a business goes under and the records are unavailable, every buyer of that Groupon could try to make a claim against it. (The risk is mitigated by the fact that a lot of redemption occurs within the first 60 days, but we dont know how much.) Google, with more than $36 billion in cash on hand, is uncomfortable enough with that risk that it dumps it onto Google Offers buyers. Groupon could mitigate this risk by changing its terms and conditions so that the consumer is responsible in case a merchant goes bankrupt. Relying on float

Where does Groupon get all the money to give to these merchants? Credit cardsyours. Groupon gets paid within a couple of days by its banks. It then takes that money and gives it to the merchant in three chunks. From Groupons S-1: Our merchant payment terms and revenue growth have provided us with operating cash flow to fund our working capital needs. Our merchant arrangements are generally structured such that we collect cash up front when our customers purchase Groupons and make payments to our merchants at a subsequent date. In North America, we typically pay our merchants in installments within sixty days after the Groupon is sold. We use the operating cash flow provided by our merchant payment terms and revenue growth to fund our working capital needs. If we offer our merchants more favorable or accelerated payment terms or our revenue does not continue to grow in the future, our operating cash flow and results of operations could be adversely impacted and we may have to seek alternative financing to fund our working capital needs. Translation: Theyre using money from new deals to pay for previous deals. They need to keep growing revenue. As of March 31, they owed merchants $290.7 million. In the agreement Ive seen, the first installment is 33% in 5 days. If they have to pay merchants faster, that could lead to problems. And Google might force that to happen. According to Google Offers payment terms, merchants receive 80% of their share in 4 daysmore than twice as much, 1 day earlier. Theres no way that was an accident. If Groupon matches these payment terms, theyll need cash faster and need to grow faster. (Google Offers accelerates the rate at which Groupons scheme has to draw in new suckers.) If Groupon doesnt match, it gives Google a key differentiator to win deals. If those businesses go with Googles more generous terms, that too will starve Groupon of the cash it needs to pay earlier merchants. Now heres the crazy part. Not only is Groupon effectively giving loans to merchants, but it also works the other way around. The merchant is on the hook for the entire value of those deals until Groupon pays the merchant back its portion. Unlike other loan providers, the merchant is making a short-term loan to Groupon. (Not technically, but effectively.) They buy inventory in advance of the Groupon run. They also serve the initial rush of customers. The business is in a hole before they get their 30- and 60-day Groupon payouts. While the chances might be small, Groupon merchants should know that theyre taking on the risk of Groupons collapse. If Groupon collapses, a lot of small merchants could be left holding the bag.

If you know of a business that closed after running a Groupon or other daily deal, please send an email with the name of the business to dailydeals@agrawals.org. And remember, correlation is not causation. Photo credits: Rachel Lovinger photo of Lisa Greenfields House of Cards and Rocky Agrawal.

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Company: GROUPON Website: http://www.groupon.com Launch Date: 11/11/2008 Funding: $1.14B

Groupon features a daily deal on the best stuff to do, see, eat, and buy in more than 565 cities around the world. By promising businesses a minimum...

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Crunchbase ROCKY AGRAWAL

Person: ROCKY AGRAWAL

Website: http://blog.agrawals.org Companies Tellme, AOL, uReach Technologies, washingtonpost.com, startribune.com, reDesign

Rocky Agrawal is a product strategist focused on the intersection of local, social and mobile. He has been working on online products since 1993, when he launched The Daily...

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M hnh Groupon c bn vng?

by dred on Jun 15, 2011 2:00 pm No Comments

Bin li nhun lin tc gim khin nhiu ngi t du hi v tnh bn vng ca m hnh kinh doanh Groupon.

Mc chi marketing qu ln khin Groupon b l rng 117,1 triu USD trong qu I/2011.

Trong cha y 3 nm k t khi c thnh lp nm 2008, Groupon nh v mnh nh mt ng vua trn th trng cung cp cc v giao dch gim gi trc tuyn. Th trng ny c hng nghin cu M BIA/Kelsey d bo s to ra 3,9 t USD doanh s bn ch ring ti M trong nm 2015, t mc 873 triu USD ca nm 2010. V th, khi c thng tin Groupon chun b pht hnh c phiu ln u ra cng chng (IPO), gii u t cng ln cn st. Tuy nhin, khi chnh thc np h s xin pht hnh IPO ln y ban Chng khon M (SEC) vo u thng 6.2011, Hng cng i mt vi hng lot mi nghi ng v tnh bn vng trong m hnh kinh doanh. Mt sau ca nhng con s Phi tha nhn Groupon l cng ty c tc tng trng nhanh khng th tin ni. S lng ng k tng ln 83,1 triu ngi trong qu I/2011 t mc 3,4 triu cch y mt nm v s giao dch ca Groupon tng ln n 28,1 triu t mc 1,8 triu. Li gp ca Cng ty (phn cn li sau khi n chia vi cc nh kinh doanh hng ha/dch v) tng ln n 270 triu USD trong qu I t mc 20 triu USD cng k nm ngoi. Groupon hin cung cp phiu gim gi ti hn 500 th trng trn th gii, so vi 260 ca LivingSocial.com (M), i th ln nht ca Groupon. l l do cho vic nh u t sn sng t cc vo s bnh trng ca Groupon trong tng lai (Thng 3 va qua, Groupon c nh gi ln ti 25 t USD). Tuy nhin, nu nhn vo mt sau ca nhng con s trn th khng phi l mt bc tranh p.

S phiu mua hng Groupon bn ra trn mi khch hng Theo Yipit Data, cng ty chuyn theo di cc website cung cp cc v giao dch gim gi trc tuyn, xt trn s tin m mi khch hng v ngi ng k em li cho Groupon, doanh thu thc ra ang gim xung. Doanh thu mi ngi ng k tnh n ngy 30.6.2009 l vo khong 21,69 USD/ngi. Nhng tnh n ngy 31.3.2011, con s ny gim n 64,2%, cn ch hn 7,76 USD/ngi. Doanh thu mi khch hng mang li cho Groupon cng gim 46,8% trong cng thi gian trn. V s v giao dch Groupon thnh cng trn mi khch hng gim 34% v gi tr giao dch trn mi khch hng cng gim 19%.

 l l do nhiu kin cho rng, m hnh kinh doanh ca Groupon kh c th thnh cng trong di hn. V y l m hnh ai cng c th d dng sao chp. C th thy, hin ti, c n 482 bn sao ca Groupon. Vic Groupon hot ng trong lnh vc m ai cng c th vo c c ngha l bin li nhun ca Groupon s st gim mnh khi ngy cng nhiu i th nhy vo. Trn thc t, cc con s trn ca Groupon cho thy iu ang din ra. Hin ti, Groupon n chia vi cc nh kinh doanh theo t l 50-50 trn mi phiu m Hng bn ra. Nhng theo trang web BusinessInsider, ti nhiu th trng, Groupon n chia theo t l 80-20, tc Hng ch nhn 20% doanh s trn mi phiu bn ra. y c phi l cch Groupon ginh th phn mt s th trng m Hng cho l trng yu, hay ch l mt xu hng Nu l mt xu hng th r rng bin li nhun ca Groupon ang lm nguy. Nh vy, liu nh u t c cn k vng rng h s nhn c mc c tc cao t mt cng ty ang i xung? Gnh nng chi ph marketing bnh trng, Groupon tuyn lao ng ln mc 7.107 ngi tnh n cui thng 3.2011, t mc 37 ngi vo thng 6.2009. Cng ty cho bit, doanh thu trn mi nhn vin kinh doanh trong qu I l 170.000 USD/thng, tng t mc 87.000 USD cch y 2 nm. Nh , doanh s bn ca Groupon tng gp hn 14 ln, t 644,7 triu USD trong qu va qua. Tuy nhin, theo ng Pat Becker Jr., nh qun l danh mc u t ti Becker Capital Management (cng ty ny qun l 2,5 t USD ti sn ca khch hng), chi ph marketing li tng trng nhanh hn c doanh s bn. iu c ngha l Groupon c th khng kim tin b vo chi ph.

Doanh thu trn mi ngi ng k, trn mi khch hng v trn mi groupon c bn ra Qu thc, chi ph marketing l khon chi ln nht ca Hng khi ln ti 208,2 triu USD trong qu I/2011. Cng ty cng b ra 179,9 triu USD gia tng lng ngi ng k nhm cnh tranh vi i th LivingSocial.com. Groupon cho rng, mc chi ph l xng ng. Trong h s gi ln SEC, Cng ty nhn mnh vic chi 18 triu USD gip gia tng thm 3,7 triu ngi ng k trong qu II nm 2010. n qu I nm nay, nhng c nhn to ra 145,3 triu USD doanh thu v 61,7 triu USD li gp.

Tuy nhin, mc chi qu ln khin Cng ty b l rng 117,1 triu USD trong qu I/2011. Nu tnh t nm 2008, con s ny ln ti 540,2 triu USD. V vn ny, trong h s np ln SEC, Groupon gii thch, mt khi ginh c th trng th chi ph marketing s gim xung. Tuy nhin, theo A.B. Mendez, chuyn gia phn tch thuc GreenCrest Capital Management LLC New York, vi mc chi cho marketing qu ln th s rt lu Groupon mi c th t c mc sinh li. Cng cha r l bin li nhun di hn ca h l nh th no hoc khi no th h mi c th t c mc sinh li n nh, ng ni. Bin li nhun sa st, m hnh kinh doanh th d dng kt np thm ngi chi. Vy tn ti v pht trin, li th cnh tranh lu di ca Groupon l g? l cu hi quan trng nht m nh u t t ra cho Groupon. Ni cho cng, khi u t vo mt cng ty, ci h mong mun l li nhun m khon u t mang li. V th, vic trt vn vo mt cng ty c tc tng trng nhanh nhng lm n khng c li th dng nh khng phi l vic lm khn ngoan. NCT theo NYT, Bloomberg v BusinessInsider

Network Effects in Groupon Business Model

With 40 million subscribers from over 300 markets from 35 countries, and with 20 million groupons already sold as of date, Groupon is a raging success. Groupon provides a real Pay for Performance marketing model for local businesses, helping them get new customers using the power of viral web marketing. Groupon also recently started providing Deal Statistics including aggregate buyer demographics such as gender, age and Zip code, share of purchases bought as gifts, distribution of sales by time etc, to merchants running the deals. Having such data will help the merchants to better understand their customers, and make product offerings and their marketing campaigns more focused to their customers. But how defensible is Groupons market position? The barriers to entry in group buying business are so low, that as per Groupon CEO Andrew Mason, there are 500 Groupon clones in the market. Unlike a true marketplace such as eBay, there are limited network efforts in the Groupons business model. The network effects of Groupon is induced by

40million subscribers, who attract more merchants to want run deals at Groupon, and hence more deals for the users, attracting even more users. More merchants would mean deals available in different products and services, and Groupon can run more personalized deals to cater for subsets of users. Because there are more users, the chances of any deal going through are much higher, resulting in more successful deals, which add value to both user and the merchant, attracting even more users and merchants. Also more users, and more deals will give more data to mine, and will significantly improve the personalization algorithms, resulting in better personalized deals, which adds value to users.

A pictorial representation of network effects in Groupon Business model:-

Network Effects in Groupon Business Model However, for users and merchants, there are no barriers to exit. What stops a user from signing up for a deal elsewhere? What stops a merchant from running the deal in another site offering similar access to users? I think the current business model of Groupon at best induces weak network effects, and is completely vulnerable to competitive forces. There is no stickyness in the system, and there are no switching costs for any of the stakeholders. Groupon can increase the stickyness by rapidly growing and having a large user base which will be attractive to the merchants, and vice versa. But even a strong network effect is not a guarantee for success, and in fact network effects alone have never been enough to make users stick to a product/service for long. The best example is Facebook, which dethroned MySpace with a better technology and product. Users look for value, and merchants look for profits; In a free market, customers (users and merchants) will use that service that maximizes their utility. Groupon is no exception to this established principle in market economics. Further, the network effect in Groupon business model, albeit weak, is induced by symbiotic growth of number of users and number of merchants.While Groupon has no added cost in scaling up its user base, (in fact, it added 3million users in just one week), it is a different story when it comes to adding merchants, and running deals. Groupon has a significant number of sales persons who acquire merchants, and copywriters who write attractive ads for the deals, on behalf of the merchants. In order to scale up the number of merchants, Groupon must also increase its sales force, and copy writers; scaling comes at a cost, and it will likely reduce the slope o the hockey stick in the Groupons financial graphs.

It is not that Groupon is not aware of these vulnerabilities. In fact Groupon appears to be taking significant steps to defend the fertile group buying market they created from scratch. Recently, Groupon has announced their plan for introducing "Groupon Stores", which will enable any merchant to run their own deals in Groupon. I have discussed about the possible implications of Groupon Stores, for Groupon, in my next post

Groupon/Google Deal Gone Sour

Groupon is basically a group buying website where huge discounts are offered on deals in specific cities, deals such as 50% off local goods, services or even 50% off a stated meal at a popular local restaurant. The idea behind Groupon is simple, they provide deals to their prospective shoppers that allow them to buy merchandise and services at a significant discount (usually 50% or more) to the retail price. If enough of the shoppers buy the Groupon, the deal is on for that day. This makes it a win-win situation, you get the discount and the store or company gets enough customers to make it worth it. So how does Groupon make profit: Groupon makes money by taking a portion of the money that the users spend on the Groupon (usually around 50%). The diagram below depicts a simple Groupon Business Model:

Should Groupon sell out to Google? Walking away from this offer is a gigantic mistake .In my opinion I feel Groupon made a rather dumb decision. $ 6,000,000,000 is a lot of money for a company with little brand equity. They should've taken the money and ran. Google was paying a huge premium for a company that I feel has limited upside, and a lot of copycats are coming out everywhere, they had their chance to cash out. Google is a shrewd company, but $$$6Billion is a pretty shocking offer. Plus, Groupon isn't a very good product. Every organization with a local sales force (for example, newspaper) can replicate this service quickly and effectively. Smaller entrants will nibble away at Groupons niche, and will muddy the water for Groupon among the all-important B2B market. I've also given their Iphone/Ipad app a try a couple times, but there is rarely anything worth taking advantage of. The restaurants/services that are going to offer these huge discounts usually aren't worthwhile in the first place.