After a Political phenomenon, Brexit in this case, how was the level of youth political

engagement affected in Wales?

INTRODUCTION

Following the Brexit referendum, initial indications were that only 36% of youth voted (Amplify) and while data
published by the LSE later indicated that the figure was 64%, this contrasts with the 65+ age group of whom
90% voted (Bruer & Harrison, 2017). Academic debate centres around whether youth participation levels are
low due to disenchantment about formal political institutions and politicians which is reflected in declining
political party membership and voting but that youth can be engaged in informal or alternative politics
(Quintelier, 2007)or “cause-oriented” politics (Norris, 2003) and online participation (Theocratis, deMoor, &
van Deth, 2019). Although some academic studies have looked at youth participation in Brexit (Pich, Harvey,
Armannsdottir, Poorrezaei, & Kincaid, 2018), there has been little consideration which is specific to Wales of
whether what was arguably the most significant political event for a generation, with far reaching impact well
beyond a single Parliament term and with specific youth impact (for example on ability to study and work in
the EU) has affected the way in which Welsh youth regard politics and their own participation in politics, how
they see the United Kingdom after Brexit and specifically how the experience of Brexit has impacted
devolution in Wales (Coban, 2018). It cannot be assumed that conclusions from studies in England or Scotland
apply equally to Wales due to its size and devolved government (but unlike Scotland with significantly less
support for independence) and Pearce and Fox regard Wales as a ‘unique … laboratory’ for studying these
issues (Pearce & Fox). In this essay, I shall use qualitative data to shed light on these issues and to make
suggestions for further research.

METHODOLOGY

The data used in this research project is secondary data sourced from the UK data service. The data was
collected by Pearce and Fox and concern how youth in Wales feel about and responded to Brexit (Pearce &
Fox). Pearce and Fox note that there is a gap in knowledge of how dramatic institutional changes affects
individuals and social cohesion. As a first stage of a study into these issues, data regarding attitudes of young
people in Wales to Brexit was collected. The full dataset is comprised of mixed methods exploring youth’s
responses to the UK’s exit from the EU. First, a cross sectional survey was taken in 2017 using an online
questionnaire but YouGov has neither released the sampling method nor the weighting. The sample size was
5,095 and included 18 qualitative semi-structured interviews. These interviews were face-to-face and were
undertaken both individually and in small groups and principally concerned those below the voting age in
2016. Those who were interviewed were chosen by snowball sampling which limits the data as it is impossible
to assess how representative participants are of the youth of Wales. In particular, it is apparent from the
interviews that many participants were studying politics at the time of the interviews and were likely to have a
level of understanding and engagement that was not representative. Further, one participant worked for a
politician and one was an American student whose father was a politician.
This research uses the 18 interview transcripts as it closely relates to this specific research question. The
transcripts concern youth in Wales and their experiences over Brexit. Particularly, the questions were open
ended that were insightful into the impact of Brexit on political participation going forward. Although it would
be possible to conduct a quantitative survey of Welsh youth about whether Brexit motivated them to be more
involved politically, a quantitative survey cannot assess the depth of participation demonstrated in face-to-face
interviews. Interviewers have greater ability to ask follow-on questions, seek further information, and return
to key questions as the interview progresses to lead to a deep understanding of attitudes, intentions and
motivations. Further, such interviews can evaluate body language as shown by interview 1 in which person one
‘nods head’ and allow participants in group sessions to interact and create richer responses.

The 18 semi-structured interview transcripts were used and thematic codes were created and the organization
of all interviewee responses placed into discrete themes. This meant there was a base level of quantification
and it generated a dataset of grouped quotes and highlighted the range and answers from each participant.
However, while the flexibility of qualitative data allows for a thematic analysis, it give inconsistent results and a
lack of coherence when developing themes derived from the research data (Holloway & Todres, 2003).
Notwithstanding this, King and Braun and Clarke consider that a thematic approach is a helpful way of
assessing participants’ attitudes, contrasting responses and provoking unexpected insights (Braun & Clarke,
2006). Thematic analysis is thus useful for identifying patterns in a large data set, requiring the author to take a
well-structured approach to handling data, helping to produce a clear and organized final report. (King,
2004)As a result, this report uses thematic analysis to distil the 18 interviews into coded themes.

FINDINGS

Political engagement

The interviewees were mixed in their attitudes to Brexit (7 pro-Brexit and 14 against) and while some
remainers had initially engaged in informal political action (eg signing a petition for a second vote and posting
on social media – [Persons 1, 12, 13, 19] and attending a protest [Person 22]), all felt that it was necessary to
respect the referendum result and make the most of the situation. In terms of political engagement, all felt
that they had become more politically engaged.

“I am definitely more engaged in it and it has definitely made me see that we need to get more
involved and influence … and take part in decision-making” [Person 7]

“I still feel really strongly after Brexit and the US election I had to be the one to go and make a
difference and that if I don’t do it, it might not happen” [Person 10]

“The EU referendum has really kicked off an interest in politics in me. I mean I was a little apathetic
before so it has made me realise just how important it really is” [Person 22].

Others reported a greater level of political discussions at home and with friends.

Some went further and felt that the change had been fundamental:
 “I think it has changed politics, I really do. I think …people who have never engaged in politics before
now do and I think it is one of the most [tenuous] things that has ever happened in Britain … I feel
that there is so much work to be done … to do with how people … weren’t really sure ..on what basis
to make their votes” [Person 6]

Some participants were clearly affected by the trust issues that are said to affect the participation of youth in
politics, particularly in relation to promises made by the Leave campaign, but participants felt that both sides
were to blame:

“Obviously the funding of £350 million…. But now when Nigel Farrage says, “No! Massive mistake, its
not going to happen”, it just completely puts me off him. Obviously, I still like politics… I have always
loved it …just makes me hard to trust politicians” [Person 2].

“It has definitely shown me something about the darker side of politics and the bad things that go on
and stuff and the lying” [Person 16]

”I think there were definitely big mistakes made on both sides and that is something I think definitely
needs to change because it is not fair on the electorate…” [Person 6]

This may account for the fact that, while expressing a new (or revitalised) interest in politics and wishing that
they had been eligible to vote in the referendum, none appeared motivated to become active in formal politics
such as joining a political party or aiming to enter politics (although participant did say “now is the time to put
your interests into action” [Person 8]).

“I’d definitely say it has increased my political interest but in terms of actually doing anything … I
haven’t done any protesting or blogging or anything” [Person 16]

However, all expressed a keen interest in the future relationship between the UK and the EU but only two
expressed a desire for young voters to be involved in the detail:

“I really want young people to be at the negotiating table and I really want young people to be
involved in the decision making” [Person 14]

Youth perceptions of the UK

Participants were asked whether Brexit had changed their perception of the UK, which allowed them to state
the impact of Brexit on what the UK is and/or what they would like it to be. Some [eg Person 19] felt disgust
that the Leave campaign had a nationalistic approach and another was concerned that the UK would be seen
as isolationist and unwelcoming abroad [Person 6]. Others expressed concern as to how divided [Persons 14
and 15] (or “delicate” according to Person 8) the UK is and one participant expressed concern as to the
psychological adjustment that British citizens would need to make once the UK left the EU [Person 7]. Two
participants [eg Person 11], who would have voted Leave, were satisfied with the UK as it is.
In terms of political participation, it is striking that many of the participants expressed concerns about what the
referendum campaign revealed about the UK and while the conversation gave them the opportunity to be
involved in formal or informal political action to campaign for their vision of the UK, none expressed any
intention to do so.

Welsh administration

Participants were asked whether Brexit had changed the way in which they thought about Welsh politics and
devolution and whether the Welsh government should have a role in the Brexit negotiations. The interviews
revealed a variety of views on devolution, with one participant specifically stating that due to Brexit, s/he was
“more engaged in Welsh politics than I was previously” [Person 20] and others supported the principle behind
devolution that “decisions are made close to people” [Person 15, also Persons 10 and 22] and one participant
thought that “the Welsh government “need to get involved more and make decisions that will benefit Wales
and not let London decide on what will be best for Wales” [Person 7]. Many of the participants felt that Brexit
should mean that additional powers should be devolved to the Welsh Assembly. One person thought that
Brexit opened up possibilities for independence [Person 21], while others thought that Brexit made
independence impossible [Persons 19 and 23]. One participant thought that after Brexit, EU responsibilities
especially in agriculture should be given to the Welsh Assembly [Person 20] and others thought that the
powers of the Welsh Assembly should be the same as the Scottish Parliament [Person 19]. Some participants
said that having a Welsh Government with “a vision for Wales” [Person 6] with input into the negotiation of
the Brexit deal with the EU with might allow the negotiation of a deal that was more favourable to Wales.

Findings

The project interviews concern a set of youth participants who are interested in and engaged with politics
post-Brexit. In some ways, the attitudes shown in the interviews confirms conclusions previously reached and
in other ways contradicts them and this may suggest that an event such as Brexit may galvanise youth in a way
not seen for many years. Quintelier noted that terms of formal politics measured by participation in elections,
youth “are the least likely to vote, and these participation rates are continuously declining” and youth
membership of political parties is falling, while young people are also “less concerned with politics, less
politically knowledgeable, do not participate in social or political activities, are more apathetic, and have low
levels of political interest” (Quintelier, 2007, p. 165). The interviews do not support a picture of political
apathy: all of the participants stated that they would have voted had they been eligible and all demonstrate an
engagement with the issues that contradict the picture that Quintelier and others depict as regards formal
politics. Moreover, many expressed concerns about the sort of country that the Brexit referendum showed
the UK to be and the role of Welsh devolved politics in a post Brexit UK. Past research has indicated that while
youth interest in formal politics has declined, youth are keen to be involved in cause orientated politics such as
evnironmental advocacy. Unfortunately, the interviewees were not asked about causes in which they were
involved (although none mentioned any when discussing past involvement with politics – this could be
because they do not regard such causes as politics (Quintelier, 2007, p. 167)).
However, none of the interview participants expressed any intention to be involved in formal politics such as
joining a political party or standing for local or national office. Quintelier considered that the lack of
involvement in formal politics was related to a lack of trust in politicians by youth: “young people perceive
politicians as ‘out of touch’, untrustworthy, self-interested, irrelevant and power hungry, more than older
respondents do” (Quintelier, 2007, p. 169). This appeared to be confirmed by the interviews as many of the
participants felt let down by the Leave campaign promise of an additional £350 million per week for the NHS
post-Brexit (other participants also referred to claims by the Remain campaign).

Most of the interview recipients reported that after the Brexit result, they were engaged in on-line activity
(signing a petition, commenting on social media such as Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat). Writers
have been divided on the value of such participation; for example, Morozov regarded internet activity as an
“illusion” of participation, whereas Rogas saw it as “expressive participation” (Rojas & Puig-i-Abril, 2009). The
survey responses support the proposition that internet activity such as changing a profile picture to include a
political message or retweeting a message “which are some of the lowest-threshold participatory acts ever”
but which “can be catalytic in raising awareness and mobilizing publics” (Theocharis & de Moor, 2021) should
be regarded as political participation since many of the participants reported that on-line activity was a form of
discourse through which their opinions were defined and refined and through which they sought to influence
others. This supports Theocratis’s conclusion that “actions that focus on the posting of political content in
digital networks like social media could make up a distinct mode of political participation” and further that
youth “with lower economic security and trust in the political system—but with higher levels of political
interest and internal efficacy—are more likely to use DNP [Digital Network Participation] as an avenue for
engaging in politics” (Theocratis, deMoor, & van Deth, 2019). This suggests that we should recognise online
engagement as an authentic way of commenting on and reacting to political developments. However, recent
US research during the Covid pandemic has shown that while increasing numbers of young people in the USA
were using social media to both receive and post political content: 70% of young people had obtained
information concerning the 2020 election on social media and 36% had posted political content while over
60% of youth said that posting social media content helped them feel more informed, represented, and heard.
However, there were significant differences in these benefits by gender and race/ethnicity. In particular, 37%
of youth do not feel qualified to state their political opinions online; among white women and black men, the
figures are 45% and 43% respectively (Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning & Engagement,
2020). Unfortunately, whether internet participation in the UK has a disenfranchisement effect on particular
groups is not apparent from the interviews because those that participated were predisposed to participation
through their interest in politics and this is an area for further research.

CONCLUSION

The interview transcripts referred to above shed light on the political behaviour of Welsh youth post-Brexit; all
of them claimed to be more politically engaged after Brexit and many had concerns about the state of the UK
after Brexit and firm ideas about the role of devolved government in Wales post Brexit, but none of them
expressed any interest in entering formal politics and many seemed upset and offput by what they regarded as
lies told during the campaign. This appears to confirm research suggesting that trust issues put youth off
formal politics. An area for further research is whether a major political issue such as Brexit has a galvanising
effect on youth similar to causes such as the environment which are regarded as motivating youth. The
interviews also support research that concludes that online engagement should be recognised as an authentic
way of commenting on and reacting to political developments and as political activity in itself as it denotes the
way in which all of the interview participants form and refine political ideas and seek to influence others.
However, further research is necessary to understand the weight that should be given to such participation
and to whether it could be exclusionary and whether it might have a disproportionate impact on particular
groups as suggested in the USA by the research. referred to above (Center for Information and Research on
Civic Learning & Engagement, 2020).

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