UNIT-3

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These
shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human
activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like
coal, oil and gas.

Causes of Climate change:

Natural Causes:
Milankovitch cycles – As Earth travels around the sun, its path and the tilt of its axis can
change slightly. These changes, called Milankovitch cycles, affect the amount of sunlight
that falls on Earth. This can cause the temperature of Earth to change. However, these cycles
take place over tens or hundreds of thousands of years and are unlikely to be causing the
changes to the climate that we are seeing today.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – ENSO is a pattern of changing water temperatures
in the Pacific Ocean. In an 'El Niño' year, the global temperature warms up, and in a 'La
Niña' year, it cools down. These patterns can affect the global temperature for a short amount
of time (months or years) but cannot explain the persistent warming that we see today.
As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global
warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded
history.
Natural forcings that can contribute to climate change include:
 Solar irradiance – Changing energy from the sun has affected the temperature of
Earth in the past. However, we have not seen anything strong enough to change our
climate. Any increase in solar energy would make the entire atmosphere of Earth
warm, but we can only see warming in the bottom layer.
 Volcanic eruptions – Volcanoes have a mixed effect on our climate. Eruptions
produce aerosol particles that cool Earth, but they also release carbon dioxide, which
 warms it. Volcanoes produce 50 times less carbon dioxide than humans do, so we
know they are not the leading cause of global warming. On top of this, cooling is the
dominant effect of volcanic eruptions, not warming.
Generating power
Generating electricity and heat by burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas
causes a large chunk of global emissions. Most of the electricity is still produced from fossil
fuels; only about a quarter comes from wind, solar, and other renewable sources.
Manufacturing goods
Manufacturing and industry produce emissions, mostly from burning fossil fuels to
produce energy for making things like cement, iron, steel, electronics, plastics, clothes, and
other goods. Mining and other industrial processes also release gases
Cutting down forests
Cutting down forests to create farms or pastures, or for other reasons, causes emissions
because when trees are cut, they release the carbon they have been storing. Since forests
absorb carbon dioxide, destroying them also limits nature’s ability to keep emissions out of
the atmosphere.
Using transportation
Most cars, trucks, ships, and planes run on fossil fuels. That makes transportation a
major contributor of greenhouse gases, especially carbon-dioxide emissions. Road vehicles
account for the largest part, but emissions from ships and planes continue to grow.
Producing food
Producing food requires energy to run farm equipment or fishing boats, usually with
fossil fuels. Growing crops can also cause emissions, like when using fertilisers and manure.
Cattle produce methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. And emissions also come from
packaging and distributing food.
Powering buildings
Globally, residential and commercial buildings consume over half of all electricity. As
they continue to draw on coal, oil, and natural gas for heating and cooling, they emit
significant quantities of greenhouse gas emissions.
Consuming too much
Your home and use of power, how you move around, what you eat and how much you
throw away - all contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. So does the consumption of goods
such as clothing, electronics, and plastics.
Past and future change in global temperature or change of temperature in the environment
Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the
globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. According
to NOAA's 2021 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has
increased at an average rate of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit ( 0.08 degrees Celsius) per decade
since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 has been more than twice as
fast: 0.32 °F (0.18 °C) per decade.
The amount of future warming Earth will experience depends on how much carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases we emit in coming decades. Today, our activities—
burning fossil fuels and clearing forests—add about 11 billion metric tons of carbon
(equivalent to a little over 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) to the atmosphere each
year. Because that is more carbon than natural processes can remove, atmospheric carbon
dioxide increases .
(left) Hypothetical pathways of carbon emissions ("representative concentration
pathways," or RCPs) throughout the twenty-first century based on different possible energy
policies and economic growth patterns. (right) Projected temperature increase relative to the
1901-1960 average depending on which RCP we eventually follow. Image by Katharine
Hayhoe, from the 2017 Climate Science Special Report by the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
According to the 2017 U.S. Climate Science Special Report, if yearly emissions
continue to increase rapidly, as they have since 2000, models project that by the end of this
century, global temperature will be at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 1901-1960
average, and possibly as much as 10.2 degrees warmer. If annual emissions increase more
slowly and begin to decline significantly by 2050, models project temperatures would still
be at least 2.4 degrees warmer than the first half of the 20th century, and possibly up to 5.9
degrees warmer.
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in
global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a
broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in
global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by
humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and
industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and
methane.Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms
from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere,
causing global warming.
Due to climate change, deserts are expanding, while heat waves and wildfires are
becoming more common.[5] Increased warming in the Arctic has contributed to melting
permafrost, glacial retreat and sea ice loss.[6] Higher temperatures are also causing more
intense storms, droughts, and other weather extremes.[7] Rapid environmental change in
mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic is forcing many species to relocate .
MELTING OF ICE AND SEA LEVEL RISE
Greenland ice shelf
 An ice shelf extends from the land and floats on the water.
 Land ice – glaciers, ice shelves and ice sheets
 Glaciers, ice shelves and ice sheets are land ice. They are all masses of frozen
freshwater and are named for their different sizes and locations.
  Glaciers are bodies of ice formed from snow that has accumulated and been
compacted over long periods of time. They form in mountainous areas and high
latitudes. Glaciers are found on every continent except Australia.
 Ice shelves are masses of thick glacial ice that extend from the coastlines and float on
the sea. Ice shelves are only found in Antarctica, Greenland and the Arctic.
 Ice sheets are large masses of glacial ice on the land. To be called an ice sheet, ice
must cover more than 50,000 km2. Ice sheets are only found in Antarctica and
Greenland.
 To put this all in context, there are several glaciers that make up the Ross Ice Shelf,
which is part of the larger Western Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves
The Antarctic ice sheets are shown in white and are on the land. The ice shelves are shown in
grey and are on water.

Sea ice
Sea ice is frozen seawater. It forms, grows and melts in the sea. Sea ice forms more
slowly than freshwater ice due to a combination of factors. First, the freezing point of
saltwater is lower than freshwater. The seawater temperature must get down to -1.8°C. It
often takes longer to reach this temperature because, as seawater cools, it sinks. The top 100–
150 m of seawater often needs to cool to -1.8°C for ice to form.
Sea ice is found in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions, with some areas covered in
sea ice year round. Sea ice forms during the winter, and some of it melts during the summer.
It is often covered by snow.
Melting ice and sea level rise
Melting land ice leads to sea level rise, whereas melting sea ice has minimal impact.
To understand why this is, imagine a jug of ice and water. As the ice warms and melts, the
total volume of water in the jug does not change, so the water level stays the same. It’s the
same with sea ice – when it melts, it does not change the volume of water in the sea.
Melting land ice is different. It adds water to the sea. This is similar to adding more
water to the jug of ice and water. The volume of water in the jug increases – and will
overflow if too much is added.
Although melting sea ice does not cause sea level rise, it does have other implications
for the global climate. Sea ice has a light-coloured surface and reflects some of the sunlight
that hits it. When sea ice melts, it exposes the darker sea surface, which absorbs solar energy
(heat). This causes further temperature rises and causes more ice to melt.
Thermal expansion and sea level rise
Warming seawater also causes sea level rise. Water expands when it warms up – heat
energy makes its molecules move around more and take up more space. Because the
molecules are more spread out, the density decreases.
Climate change – additional implications
The ocean is a complex and continuous body of water that covers two-thirds of our
planet. Melting land and sea ice affect many of the properties that drive the ocean’s
chemical, physical and biological processes. Read about the properties – and the impacts
climate change will cause – in the articles Ocean temperature, Ocean density, Ocean salinity
and Ocean motion (currents and circulation).
IMPACTS OF IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES
Irreversible Climate Change: Atmospheric Warming.

Global average temperatures increase while CO2 is increasing and then remain
approximately constant (within ≈ ±0.5 °C) until the end of the millennium despite zero
further emissions in all of the test cases shown in Fig. 1. This important result is due to a
near balance between the long-term decrease of radiative forcing due to CO2 concentration
decay and reduced cooling through heat loss to the oceans. It arises because long-term
carbon dioxide removal and ocean heat uptake are both dependent on the same physics of
deep-ocean mixing. Sea level rise due to thermal expansion accompanies mixing of heat into
the ocean long after carbon dioxide emissions have stopped. For larger carbon dioxide
concentrations, warming and thermal sea level rise show greater increases and display
transient changes that can be very rapid, mainly because of changes in ocean circulation.
Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that additional contributions from melting of glaciers and
ice sheets may be comparable to or greater than thermal expansion (discussed further below),
but these are not included. Explores how close the modeled temperature changes are to
thermal equilibrium with respect to the changing carbon dioxide concentration over time,
sometimes called the realized warming fraction (1(shown for the different peak CO2 cases).
Fig. 2 Left shows how the calculated warmings compare to those expected if temperatures
were in equilibrium with the carbon dioxide concentrations vs. time, while Fig. 2 Right
shows the ratio of these calculated time-dependent and equilibrium temperatures. During the
period when carbon dioxide is increasing, the realized global warming fraction is ≈50–60%
of the equilibrium warming, close to values obtained in other models (5, 19). After emissions
cease, the temperature change approaches equilibrium with respect to the slowly decreasing
carbon dioxide concentrations (cyan lines in Fig. 2 Right). The continuing warming through
year 3000 is maintained at ≈40–60% of the equilibrium warming corresponding to the peak
CO2 concentration (magenta lines in Fig. 2 Right). Related changes in fast-responding
atmospheric climate variables such as precipitation, water vapor, heat waves, cloudiness,
etc., are expected to occur largely simultaneously with the temperature changes.
Irreversible Climate Change: Precipitation Changes.
 The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the
magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility.
 This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon
dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop.
 Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases
radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so
that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years.
 Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible
dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust
bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise.
 Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to
irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2
concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations
exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv.
 Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level
rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or
longer.
Irreversible Climate Change: Sea Level Rise.
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide will cause irrevocable sea level rise. There are 2
relatively well-understood processes that contribute to this and a third that may be much
more important but is also very uncertain. Warming causes the ocean to expand and sea
levels to rise as shown in Fig. 1; this has been the dominant source of sea level rise in the
past decade at least. Loss of land ice also makes important contributions to sea level rise as
the world warms. Mountain glaciers in many locations are observed to be retreating due to
warming, and this contribution to sea level rise is also relatively well understood. Warming
may also lead to large losses of the Greenland and/or Antarctic ice sheets. Additional rapid
ice losses from particular parts of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have recently
been observed . One recent study uses current ice discharge data to suggest ice sheet
contributions of up to 1–2 m to sea level rise by 2100, but other studies suggest that changes
in winds rather than warming may account for currently observed rapid ice sheet flow,
rendering quantitative extrapolation into the future uncertain. In addition to rapid ice flow,
slow ice sheet mass balance processes are another mechanism for potential large sea level
rise. Paleoclimatic data demonstrate large contributions of ice sheet loss to sea level rise, but
provide limited constraints on the rate of such processes. Some recent studies suggest that ice
sheet surface mass balance loss for peak CO2 concentrations of 400–800 ppmv may be even
slower than the removal of manmade carbon dioxide following cessation of emissions, so
that this loss could contribute less than a meter to irreversible sea level rise even after many
thousands of years. It is evident that the contribution from the ice sheets could be large in the
future, but the dependence upon carbon dioxide levels is extremely uncertain not only over
the coming century but also in the millennial time scale.
An assessed range of models suggests that the eventual contribution to sea level rise
from thermal expansion of the ocean is expected to be 0.2–0.6 m per degree of global
warming. Fig. 4 uses this range together with a best estimate for climate sensitivity of 3 °C
to estimate lower limits to eventual sea level rise due to thermal expansion alone. Fig. 4
shows that even with zero emissions after reaching a peak concentration, irreversible global
average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m is expected if 21st century CO2 concentrations
exceed 600 ppmv and as much as 1.9 m for a peak CO2 concentration exceeding ≈1,000
ppmv. Loss of glaciers and small ice caps is relatively well understood and is expected to be
largely complete under sustained warming of, for example, 4 °C within ≈500 years. For
lower values of warming, partial remnants of glaciers might be retained, but this has not been
examined in detail for realistic representations of glacier shrinkage and is not quantified
here. Complete losses of glaciers and small ice caps have the potential to raise future sea
level by ≈0.2–0.7 m in addition to thermal expansion. Further contributions due to partial
loss of the great ice sheets of Antarctica and/or Greenland could add several meters or more
to these values but for what warming levels and on what time scales are still poorly
characterized.
Sea level rise can be expected to affect many coastal regions. While sea walls and
other adaptation measures might combat some of this sea level rise, shows that carbon
dioxide peak concentrations that could be reached in the future for the conservative lower
limit defined by thermal expansion alone can be expected to be associated with substantial
irreversible commitments to future changes in the geography of the Earth because many
coastal and island features would ultimately become submerged.
A complex issue
The impacts of climate change on different sectors of society are interrelated. Drought
can harm food production and human health. Flooding can lead to disease spread and
damages to ecosystems and infrastructure. Human health issues can increase mortality,
impact food availability, and limit worker productivity. Climate change impacts are seen
throughout every aspect of the world we live in. However, climate change impacts are
uneven across the country and the world — even within a single community, climate change
impacts can differ between neighborhoods or individuals. Long-standing socioeconomic
inequities can make underserved groups, who often have the highest exposure to hazards
and the fewest resources to respond, more vulnerable.
The projections of a climate change-impacted future are not inevitable. Many of the
problems and solutionsoffsite link are known to us now, and ongoing research continues to
provide new ones. Experts believe there is still time to avoid the most negative of outcomes
by limiting warmingoffsite link and reducing emissions to zero as quickly as possible.
Reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases will require investment in new technology and
infrastructure, which will spur job growth. Additionally, lowering emissions will lessen
harmful impacts to human health, saving countless lives and billions of dollars in health-
related expenses.
Our changing climate
We see climate change affecting our planet from pole to pole. NOAA monitors global
climate data and here are some of the changes NOAA has recorded. You can explore more at
the Global Climate Dashboard.
 Global temperatures rose about 1.8°F (1°C) from 1901 to 2020.
 Sea level rise has accelerated from 1.7 mm/year throughout most of the twentieth
century to 3.2 mm/year since 1993.
 Glaciers are shrinking: average thickness of 30 well-studied glaciers has decreased
more than 60 feet since 1980.
 The area covered by sea ice in the Arctic at the end of summer has shrunk by about
40% since 1979.
 The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by 25% since 1958, and by
about 40% since the Industrial Revolution.
 Snow is melting earlier compared to long-term averages.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IMPORTANT SECTORS:
Water
Changes to water resources can have a big impact on our world and our lives.
Flooding is an increasing issue as our climate is changing. Compared to the beginning of the
20th century, there are both stronger and more frequent abnormally heavy precipitation
events across most of the United States.
Conversely, drought is also becoming more common, particularly in the Western United
States. Humans are using more water, especially for agriculture. Much like we sweat more
when it is hot out, higher air temperatures cause plants to lose, or transpire, more water,
meaning farmers must give them more water. Both highlight the need for more water in
places where supplies are dwindling.
Snowpack is an important source of freshwater for many people. As the snow melts,
freshwater becomes available for use, especially in regions like the Western United States
where there is not much precipitation in warmer months. But as temperatures warm, there is
less snow overall and snow begins to melt earlier in the year, meaning snowpack may not be
a reliable source of water for the entire warm and dry seasons.
Food
Our food supply depends on climate and weather conditions. Although farmers and
researchers may be able to adapt some agricultural techniques and technologies or develop
new ones, some changes will be difficult to manage. Increased temperatures, drought and
water stress, diseases, and weather extremes create challenges for the farmers and ranchers
who put food on our tables.
Human farm workers can suffer from heat-related health issues, like exhaustion, heatstroke,
and heart attacks. Rising temperatures and heat stress can also harm livestock.
Human health
Climate change is already impacting human health. Changes in weather and climate patterns
can put lives at risk. Heat is one of the most deadly weather phenomena. As ocean
temperatures rise, hurricanes are getting stronger and wetter, which can cause direct and
indirect deaths. Dry conditions lead to more wildfires, which bring many health risks. Higher
incidences of flooding can lead to the spread of waterborne diseases, injuries, and chemical
hazards. As geographic ranges of mosquitoes and ticks expand, they can carry diseases to
new locations.
The most vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, people with preexisting health
conditions, outdoor workers, people of color, and people with low income, are at an even
higher risk because of the compounding factors from climate change. But public health
groups can work with local communities to help people understand and build resilience to
climate change health impacts.

The environment
Climate change will continue to have a significant impact on ecosystems and
organisms, though they are not impacted equally. The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most
vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as it is warming at least twice the rate of the
global average and melting land ice sheets and glaciers contribute dramaticallyoffsite link to
sea level rise around the globe.
Some living things are able to respond to climate change; some plants are blooming
earlier and some species may expand their geographic range. But these changes are
happening too fast for many other plants and animals as increasing temperatures and
changing precipitation patterns stress ecosystems. Some invasive or nuisance species, like
lionfish and ticks, may thrive in even more places because of climate change.
Changes are also occurring in the ocean. The ocean absorbs about 30% of the carbon
dioxide that is released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels. As a result, the
water is becoming more acidic, affecting marine life. Sea levels are rising due to thermal
expansion, in addition to melting ice sheets and glaciers, putting coastal areas at greater risk
of erosion and storm surge.
The compounding effects of climate change are leading to many changes in
ecosystems. Coral reefs are vulnerable to many effects of climate change: warming waters
can lead to coral bleaching, stronger hurricanes can destroy reefs, and sea level rise can
cause corals to be smothered by sediment. Coral reef ecosystems are home to thousands of
species, which rely on healthy coral reefs to survive.
Infrastructure
Physical infrastructure includes bridges, roads, ports, electrical grids, broadband
internet, and other parts of our transportation and communication systems. It is often
designed to be in use for years or decades, and many communities have infrastructure that
was designed without future climate in mind. But even newer infrastructures can be
vulnerable to climate change.
Extreme weather events that bring heavy rains, floods, wind, snow, or temperature
changes can stress existing structures and facilities. Increased temperatures require more
indoor cooling, which can put stress on an energy grid. Sudden heavy rainfall can lead to
flooding that shuts down highways and major business areas.
Nearly 40% of the United States population lives in coastal counties, meaning millions
of people will be impacted by sea level rise. Coastal infrastructure, such as roads, bridges,
water supplies, and much more, is at risk. Sea level rise can also lead to coastal erosion and
high-tide flooding. Some communities are projected to possibly end up at or below sea level
by 2100 and will face decisions around managed retreat and climate adaptation.
Many communities are not yet prepared to face climate-related threats. Even within a
community, some groups are more vulnerable to these threats than others. Going forward, it
is important for communities to invest in resilient infrastructure that will be able to withstand
future climate risks. Researchers are studying current and future impacts of climate change
on communities and can offer recommendations on best practices. Resilience education is
vitally important for city planners, emergency managers, educators, communicators, and all
other community members to prepare for climate change.
EDUCATION CONNECTION
 Teaching about climate change can be a daunting challenge, but it is a critical field for
students to learn about, as it affects many parts of society. The Essential Principles of
Climate Literacy, developed by NOAA and other federal partners, are standards that create a
framework for teaching climate. The Toolbox for Teaching Climate & Energy explores a
learning process to help students engage in climate action in their own communities or on a
global scale. For more educator support, NOAA offers professional development
opportunities (including the Planet Stewards Program) about climate and other topics.
Projected impacts for different regions:

Regional Impacts
Changes in Earth's climate have different effects in different areas
of the world. Some places will warm much more than others, some
regions will receive more rainfall, while others are exposed to more
frequent droughts. Regional changes in temperature and
precipitation are having impacts on people and ecosystems. Animals
that are not able to tolerate changes in climate and are not able to
move into new areas are threatened by extinction.

Warming Temperatures

Warming is already occurring in all areas of the globe, but models

of future temperatures show that the changes will not be distributed
equally. Polar regions and land areas are expected to see the largest
temperature changes.
Earth's average global temperature is rising, but the amount of
warming is not equal in all areas of the world.

As the climate warms, the ocean is expected to warm more slowly

than land because it takes much more heat to warm water than air
and land. The air right above ocean water are expected to warm
more slowly than land too.
In general, the middle of continents are expected to warm more
than coastal areas. Regional topography such as mountain ranges
will influence this too.
At high latitudes, especially in and near the Arctic,
temperatures are warming faster than places closer to the equator.
The Arctic is heating up about twice as quickly as the global
average.

Changing Regional Precipitation

Future changes in precipitation will vary regionally, with

some parts of the globe likely to become wetter and other
areas projected to become drier.
As temperatures continues to warm, global average precipitation
will also increase by the end of the century. This increase is not,
however, expected to be distributed evenly around the globe or
throughout the seasons in a given year. Many parts of the world
could experience increases in the frequency and intensity of
extreme, heavy rain events, and in other parts of the world, dry
conditions may become more severe and last longer.

Much of the increase in precipitation is expected to occur at high

latitudes. Increased snowfall near both poles may offset some of the
melting of glaciers and ice sheets in these regions by adding fresh
ice to the tops of these features. Some places in Antarctica are even
gaining more snow via increased precipitation than they are losing
to melting caused by rising temperatures.

However, many regions near the equator and at mid-latitudes are

expected to see decreases in precipitation. In Africa, between 75 and
250 million people are projected to be vulnerable to drought and
lack of drinking water. Dry conditions are already making it
difficult to grow crops in Africa, which is causing more food
scarcity. In some areas of Asia, clean freshwater is projected to
become more scarce, and illness caused by unclean water is
projected to increase.

Some of the increased rainfall is expected to come in the form of

more frequent heavy downpours. Some regions may receive a net
increase in rainfall, but the increase may manifest itself as heavier
rains punctuated by longer dry spells between these deluges. This
change in precipitation patterns is likely to cause a greater
incidence of flooding, especially in combination with land use
changes such as deforestation.
Many areas, especially in low- and mid-latitude regions, are
expected to suffer from more frequent and more severe droughts.
Dry conditions, warmer temperatures that produce longer "fire
seasons", and changes to ecosystems are expected to generate more
and larger wildfires in some areas.

Some presently dry regions may be glad to see increased rainfall,

just as drier conditions may benefit some currently very wet places.
However, heavy rainfall that causes flooding as well as extended or
more frequent droughts are likely to be disruptive to ecosystems
and agriculture in the afflicted regions.

Low-lying Coastal Regions and Rising Seas

Not surprisingly, rising sea level is expected to have adverse effects

on coastal regions and islands worldwide. However, the impacts will
differ depending on the topography of the land and its susceptibility
to flooding.

Some low-lying coastal regions will be subject to more frequent

flooding or even permanent inundation. Large areas in the
countries of Bangladesh and The Netherlands, along with the U.S.
state of Florida and the city of New Orleans are only slightly above
sea level, and thus are at great risk of even slight increases in sea
level. Some small island nations in the Pacific are at such low
elevations that they are in danger of being wiped off the map
entirely as the water rises.

Higher sea levels will hasten the erosion of beaches and other types
of terrain along the shoreline. Salty water will seep further inland in
estuaries and brackish marshes, altering ecosystems (many of which
serve as nurseries for ocean-going fish and other aquatic creatures).
Hurricane Prone Regions

Regions of the world that are already prone to tropical cyclones

(also known as hurricanes and typhoons) may see more impacts
from them in the future.(harricanes causes more precipitation and
which are characterized by the strength of a storms winds,sea level
rise and vulnerability).

These storms derive their energy from warm ocean waters, so their
winds become more intense as sea surface temperatures warm.
Hurricanes are also able to carry more water vapor in a warmer
climate, causing more rain which can cause flooding when they
make landfall. Also, flooding from storm surge during hurricanes
will wash further inland as sea level rises due to climate change.

Hurricanes occur in six major regions worldwide: the North

Atlantic, the Northeastern Pacific, the Northwestern Pacific, the
Southwestern Pacific, and the North and South Indian Ocean. Each
of these regions may be affected differently by changes to storm
patterns caused by global warming. Hurricane seasons may start
earlier and end later, providing more time for storms to occur.
Storms may move into higher latitudes as ocean waters warm.
Hurricanes may form in places where they hadn't before.

High Mountain Regions

Almost all of the world's mountain or alpine glaciers are receding, a
trend that is likely to continue in the years ahead. As glaciers
shrink, and in some places disappear, human communities and
ecosystems that rely on glacial meltwater as a supply of fresh water.
In some regions, people depend almost entirely on glaciers for the
water they use in towns, cities, and for agriculture. Much of
northern India gets water from Himalayan glaciers, while large
portions of Chile rely on glaciers in the Andes for water. Less water
can lead to changes in ecosystems and a greater incidence of water-
borne diseases. In other mountainous areas, snow typically builds
up during the winter and melts in the spring and summer, flowing
down rivers. But warmer temperatures increase the risk of river
flooding as snow melts faster. The changes to snow and glacial ice in
mountain regions threatens the extinction of species that live in
unique high-altitude environments.

Regions Affected by El Niño and Other Patterns in the Atmosphere:

Cycles such as El Niño and La Niña events and seasonal monsoons
in India may change as the climate warms. Scientists are still trying
to improve models of these events, so predictions of how they may
change in the future are somewhat speculative. Disruptions of the
normal patterns, particularly of the monsoons, could affect many
millions of people in areas like India and Bangladesh. El Niño and
La Niña affect the Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas, but
scientists are discovering that they also may have an influence on
other areas of the world as well.

The Polar Regions

The Arctic and parts of Antarctica are warming much

more quickly than the global average, a trend that is
expected to continue. The extent of sea ice in the Arctic
Ocean has been decreasing rapidly. Some models
project a complete loss of sea ice in the summertime in
the Arctic by the middle of the 21st Century. Glaciers
and ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are melting
too.

Permafrost (frozen ground) usually provides a solid

platform for buildings and roadways in the Arctic. It is
solid enough for animals like caribou to migrate over.
But thawing permafrost creates mushy ground,
disrupting wildlife and human activities. Also, the
thawing of permafrost releases methane, a powerful
greenhouse gas.
Key Uncertainties in understanding the recent changes in the climate system
The simulation of clouds has shown modest improvement since AR4, however it
remains challenging.
Observational uncertainties for climate variables other than temperature, uncertainties
in forcings such as aerosols, and limits in process understanding continue to hamper
attribution of changes in many aspects of the climate system.
Changes in the water cycle remain less reliably modelled in both their changes and
their internal variability, limiting confidence in attribution assessments. Observational
uncertainties and the large effect of internal variability on observed precipitation also
precludes a more confident assessment of the causes of precipitation changes.
Modelling uncertainties related to model resolution and incorporation of relevant
processes become more important at regional scales, and the effects of internal variability
become more significant. Therefore, challenges persist in attributing observed change to
external forcing at regional scales.
The ability to simulate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events is limited
by the ability of models to reliably simulate mean changes in key features.
In some aspects of the climate system, including changes in drought, changes in
tropical cyclone activity, Antarctic warming, Antarctic sea ice extent, and Antarctic mass
balance confidence in attribution to human influence remains low due to modelling
uncertainties and low agreement between scientific studies.
Key Uncertainties in Projections of Global and Regional Climate Change
Based on model results there is medium confidence in the predictability of yearly to
decadal averages of temperature both for the global average and for some geographical
regions. Multi-model results for precipitation indicate a generally low predictability. Short-
term climate projection is also limited by the low confidence in projections of natural
forcing.
There is low confidence in projections for a poleward shift of the position and strength
of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. There is generally low confidence in basin-scale
projections of significant trends in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity in the 21st
century. Projected changes in soil moisture and surface run off are not robust in many
regions. Several components or phenomena in the climate system could potentially exhibit
abrupt or nonlinear changes, but for many phenomena there is low confidence and little
consensus on the likelihood of such events over the 21st century.
There is low confidence on magnitude of carbon losses through CO2 or CH4
emissions to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost. There is limited confidence in
projected future methane emissions from natural sources due to changes in wetlands and gas
hydrate release from the sea floor.
There is medium confidence in the projected contributions to sea level rise by models
of ice sheet dynamics for the 21st century, and low confidence in their projections beyond
2100.
There is low confidence in semi-empirical model projections of global mean sea level
rise, and no consensus in the scientific community about their reliability.
There is low confidence in projections of many aspects of climate phenomena that
influence regional climate change, including changes in amplitude and spatial pattern of
modes of climate variability.
Uncertainty in Climate Projections:
While we know with certainty that Canada’s climate is changing, the complex nature
of the climate system, climate models and human factors makes it difficult to determine
exactly what the impacts of that change will be at any given location and/or time. However,
just like buying home insurance gives you peace of mind that you will be compensated for
damaging events that may occur, making a conscious effort to understand uncertainties in
climate projections, means they become more manageable. Considering uncertainty
increases your level of preparedness.
Why should I consider uncertainty?
Making a conscious effort to understand uncertainties associated with climate projections
leads to:
 more informed and robust decision-making.
 better identification and management of the potential risks caused by climate change.
 Conversely, neglecting to consider uncertainties can:
 conceal risks
 undermine risk management efforts
 increase the chances for maladaptation, which will result in making a situation worse,
rather than better
What are the sources of uncertainty?
There are three main sources of uncertainty in climate projections:
Natural internal climate variability:
Our climate is influenced by important unpredictable natural fluctuations that occur
even without any change in greenhouse gas concentrations. Climate variability is due in part
to semi-cyclical phenomena such as El Niño and North Atlantic Oscillation. This type of
variability has and will always be part of Earth’s climate system and therefore scientists have
represented this type of variability in climate models to the best of their ability. However,
there are other determinants of climate variability that are external to the climate system,
e.g., volcanic activity and changes to solar output. As these are largely unpredictable, they
are not included in simulations of future climate but are present in simulations of historical
climate since we have measurements of their occurrence and impact on the climate system
during this period.
Model uncertainty: Numerous climate models exist and all have been developed following
basic laws of physics. While they are sophisticated tools, these models continue to evolve as
our understanding of the climate system improves and technology advances. As such, models
remain imperfect tools, and model simulations of the climate can differ from reality and may
react slightly differently to changes in forcings. Indeed, individual climate models differ in a
number of aspects, such as the level of simplification, the grid size and the way in which
they represent physical phenomena, particularly those that are too small to be explicitly
simulated (e.g. clouds, surface atmosphere exchanges and the representation of soil and
vegetation cover). Each model is unique and will generate slightly different projections, this
is true even when they are run using identical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. To help
address this type of uncertainty, ensembles, or sets of climate models are often used to see
where they agree and show the range of possible futures, to help with climate change
preparedness.

Emissions scenario uncertainty:

The evolution of greenhouse gas emissions is also uncertain and it is not possible at
this time to determine exactly what future emissions will be. Consequently, models are run
with different trajectories of emissions, known as Representative Concentration Pathways or
RCPs, which are based on a set of assumptions about driving forces, such as technological
change, demographic and socioeconomic development, land-use, and their key interactions.
RCPs provide alternative visions of how the future may unfold and therefore influence the
results of climate projections. Whether we move towards a cleaner, healthier environment
and economy is in the hands of Canadians and other countries around the world.

The relative importance of the three sources of uncertainty changes depending on the
geographic scale at which the model output is examined (over the whole globe or a continent
for example), on the particular climate variable considered (e.g., temperature, precipitation,
or other variables), and on the planning horizon and on the temporal scale of the variable of
interest (yearly, seasonal or monthly for example). For instance, natural internal variability is
particularly important over smaller regions and shorter time scales, and for projections of
precipitation. Relative importance can also vary depending on the models and emissions
scenarios used. The context in which these types of analyses are conducted must therefore
be considered.
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