CASE STUDY

The Case of the Body in the Bag

The late spring morning broke along the banks of a river.
Robert Donkin, an elderly retiree with fishing pole in
hand, slipped through the underbrush that lined the river’s
banks. As he neared the shore, he saw a rather large canvas
bag floating in the water, held by foliage that leaned over
the river. The bag appeared to be stuffed, well-worn,
and heavily stained. Upon closer inspection, Mr. Donkin
observed what he believed to be hair floating through
the bag’s opening. Marking the spot of his discovery, the
fisherman fetched the authorities.
Preliminary investigation at the scene revealed a body
in the bag. Unfortunately, it was impossible to identify the
corpse’s sex or race immediately. Estimating age was also
out of the question. Forensics was assigned the task of
identifying the victim and estimating the cause and time of
death. While waiting for the forensics analysis, you, as the
detective in charge, have gathered the information shown
on pages 319–320 concerning victim–offender relationships
from recent reports from the FBI.
Using the information contained in the tables, you are
to develop a preliminary profile of the victim and offender
by determining the likelihood that:
Victim–Offender Relationship by Age
1. The offender is at least 18.
2. The offender is white. Age of Offender
3. The offender is male. Age of Less Than 18 At Least 18 Unknown
4. The victim is a white female. Victim
5. The victim is either white or female. Less than 18 124 619 39
6. The victim and the offender are from the same age
At least 18 290 5628 480
category.
7. The victim and the offender are from different age Unknown 4 80 21
categories.
8. The victim and the offender are of the same race. Victim–Offender Relationship by Sex
9. The victim and the offender are of different races. Sex of Offender
10. The victim and the offender are of the same sex.
11. The victim and the offender are of different sexes. Sex of Victim Male Female Unknown
12. Without knowing the contents of the forensic Male 4710 490 89
team’s report, what is your best prediction of the age, Female 1735 150 24
race, and sex of the victim? Explain your reasoning. Unknown 50 11 26
13. What is your best prediction as to the age, race,
and sex of the offender? Explain your reasoning.
Victim–Offender Relationship by Race
Soon after you finished this analysis, the preliminary
forensics report was delivered to your desk. Although no Race of Offender
identification had been made, the autopsy suggested that Race of White Black Other Unknown
the cause of death was blunt-force trauma and that the Victim
body had been in the water at least 2 weeks. By using a White 3026 573 53 57
variety of techniques, it was also determined that the victim
Black 208 3034 12 49
was a white female with blonde hair. She was estimated as
being in her mid-thirties, showed no signs of having had Other 54 28 97 7
children, and was wearing no jewelry. Unknown 30 27 4 26

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320 CHAPTER 5 Probability

Sex of Victim by Race of Offender Based on this new information, you develop a new
offender profile by determining the likelihood that:
Race of Offender
Sex of Victim White Black Other Unknown 14. The offender is at least 18.
15. The offender is white.
Male 2162 2935 103 89
16. The offender is male.
Female 1126 700 59 24 17. The victim and the offender are from the same age
Unknown 30 27 4 26 category.
18. The victim and the offender are from different age
categories.
Race of Victim by Sex of Offender
19. The victim and the offender are of the same race.
Sex of Offender 20. The victim and the offender are of different races.
Race of Victim Male Female Unknown 21. The victim and the offender are of the same sex.
White 3322 330 57 22. The victim and the offender are of different sexes.
23. What is your best prediction of the age, race, and
Black 2964 290 49
sex of the offender? Explain your reasoning.
Other 159 20 7 24. Did your answers to the offender question change
Unknown 50 11 26 once you knew the age, race, and sex of the victim?
Source: Uniform Crime Reports: Crime in the United States Explain.
Suppose that 45% of murder victims were known to be
Murder Victims by Race and Sex related to or acquainted with the offender, that 15% were
murdered by an unrelated stranger, and that for 40% of
Sex
victims relationship to their killer is unknown. Based on all
Race Male Female Unknown the information available, complete your offender profile
White 5067 1883 6 for this case.
Black 6294 1126 1
Other 301 105 0
Unknown 131 42 34

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