Interpreting Graphs and Predicting Trends Lesson

Course: Earth System Sciences

Period:6
Date: Friday; 1/27/2023
12:31- 1:53

Colorado Science Standards

● Earth’s systems, being dynamic and interacting, cause feedback effects that can
increase or decrease the original changes, and these effects occur on different time
scales, from sudden (e.g volcanic ash clouds) to intermediate (ice ages) to very
long-term tectonic cycles.
● The role of radiation from the sun and its interactions with the atmosphere, ocean, and
land are the foundation for the global climate system. Global climate models are used to
predict future changes, including changes influenced by human behavior and natural
factors.

Colorado Essential Skills and Science and Engineering Practices:

1. Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in
order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution.
(Analyzing and Interpreting Data)

Learning Targets
● Students can interpret linear graphs and identify trends.
● Students can analyze collected data to create models representing current trends and
use the model to predict future data.
● Students can identify a trend related to global warming and interpret graphs that depict a
consequence of climate change.

Engage https://smartgraphs-activities.concord.org/acti
vities/249-gl-2-1-graphs-tell-a/student_previe
w/
Graphs tell a story. This quick introduction
gives an extremely basic version of a graph
that represents the temperature of a cup of
coffee while the story character, Paul, lets the
coffee heat up and cool down throughout the
morning. Students are asked to make
predictions and to match situations to its data.
It requires very basic, surface level
knowledge, and eases students into the idea
of interpreting graphs and reminding them of
relevant vocabulary such as
1. independent and dependent variables.
 2. Direct and inverse relationships
3. slope

Explore Matching game

Students will be given 10 graphs and 10
written out situations. Students must match
the graph to the situation that it best depicts.
This activity is fun and can give students a
chance to be competitive, which many enjoy
and introduces a motivation to learn. This
game also teaches students to recognize that
data and graphs represent real situations,
and gives them practice in interpreting
trendlines.
graphing matching game

Explain After practicing with the coffee story and the

matching game, students will be given a
worksheet. In the worksheet, students are
told they are all NASA scientists and it is their
job to predict the surface temperature of the
Earth in the year 2050. Students are given a
graph of the changes measured in Earth’s
surface temperature between the years 1880
and 2020. They will do basic calculations,
such as find average temperature changes
over a time period, and draw trendlines to
estimate the future surface temperature
based on previous data. They must interpret
the given graph, recognize that as time has
gone on the slope of the line has increased,
and use this information to create their own
trendline. If students are on the right track,
they should predict an increase or around or
over 0.7C from the year 2020.
global warming trends worksheet
There is a definition and vocabulary sheet
available for students who are struggling.
Graphing terms

Elaborate The “elaborate” section is a continuation of

the worksheet. Students are asked to look at
graphs depicting increased carbon emissions
and rising sea levels. Students are then
asked to analyze these graphs and their
relationships with the original surface
temperature graphs. Comparing multiple sets
of data will require an extension of their
knowledge and many may find this to be
challenging. Teachers should provide
 guidance by facilitating group discussions
and asking “back pocket” questions.
1. How do we identify slope when
looking at a graph?
2. What do you already know about
climate change? Are these graphs
confirming or challenging your
beliefs?
3. What does a direct relationship look
like? Indirect? Exponential?
4. If we continue to live as we do, how
do you expect the trend to continue?
These are more advanced questions.
Struggling students may feel overwhelmed,
while confident students will feel appropriately
challenged. For students who are feeling
behind, it may be best not to hand out these
advanced questions and instead review the
basic terminology with them using the
graphing vocabulary sheet.

Evaluate Students will be evaluated when they turn in

their worksheets. Student understanding is
gauged by reviewing their answers and
looking at not just if they are correct but if
they are thoughtful, meaningful and display
effort. Worksheet should be collected and
assessed as a formative (more of a
participation grade). Students who display a
clear understanding will have a reasonable
estimate for the surface temperature in 2050
(0.5 C change or higher). Students should
also communicate in complete sentences and
defend their responses with evidence from
the graphs (therefore showing an
understanding of how to read and interpret
graphs).
**WATCH FOR STUDENTS WHO GOOGLE
THE PREDICTION. Google says that the
surface temperature of earth is expected to
rise by 1.5 C by 2050. If they answer 1.5 C
and cannot explain using the evidence they
have gathered, they likely googled the
answer. With the data they are given, their
prediction will likely be lower than 1.5 C.