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Asia Pacific Market Research
Asia Pacific Market Research
The present study examines the weak form of market efficiency of 10 selected stock exchanges in Asia-Pacific markets
for daily, weekly and monthly returns from 1997 to 2012. The descriptive statistics results indicate that all the three
return series (daily, weekly and monthly) are not normally distributed and are characterized as leptokurtic and skewed.
The results of run test and autocorrelation indicate that the Asian markets are weak form efficient when tested on
monthly returns but fail to exhibit characteristics of random walk in daily and weekly returns. The results of unit root
conclude that data becomes stationary at order I(1) and the results of the more stringent variance ratio reject the
existence of weak form of inefficiency in the selected stock indices. The results have important implications for
investors who can exploit market inefficiency and earn abnormal profits while holding a well-diversified portfolio in
these emerging markets.
Introduction
The study of market efficiency has been the central conception in financial literature for the
past several years and the rationale for such extensive research can be attributed to the fact
that market efficiency has important implications for trading strategies of individual investors,
fund managers, portfolio analysts and also conducive for optimum research allocation and
production efficiency. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) propounds that securities prices
are extremely efficient in collectively reflecting information about individual stocks and
stock market. If a large number of rational investors are present in a market and relevant
market information is easily and freely available, then stock prices would reflect a fair value
and each investor would earn an average rate of return. Fama (1965) provided evidence of not
only statistical independence in stock returns but also poor predictive powers of technical
analysis tools to predict the future prices. Samuelson (1965) and Mandelbrot (1966) explained
that randomness in equity returns should be expected from a well-functioning stock market
that implicates investing in stocks is a ‘fair game’, i.e., an investor cannot beat the market and
earn superior returns without having informational advantage.
* Assistant Professor, Banarsidas Chandiwala Institute of Professional Studies, Affiliated to Guru Gobind
Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 11, Dwarka, New Delhi 110075, India; and is the corresponding author.
E-mail: malhotra.nidhi6@gmail.com
** Assistant Professor, Banarsidas Chandiwala Institute of Professional Studies, Affiliated to Guru Gobind
Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 11, Dwarka, New Delhi 110075, India. E-mail: kaminitandon@gmail.com
*** Professor, Finance and Accounting, International Management Institute (IMI), Qutab Institutional Area,
Tara Crescent, New Delhi 110016, India. E-mail: deepaktandon@imi.edu
Literature Review
Past studies on random walk and market efficiency exist either for a single market or group of
Asian markets. The studies of random walk in single market include for Taiwan (Lock, 2007),
Japan and China (Lee et al., 2001; Li, 2008; and Mahmood et al., 2010), Hong Kong (Cheung
and Coutts, 2001), Korea (Ayadi and Pyun, 1994; and Ryoo and Smith, 2002) and India
(Barua, 1987; Chaudhury, 1991; Poshakwale, 1996; Pant and Bishnoi, 2002; Gupta and Basu,
2007; and Mehla and Goyal, 2012). The studies that have tested market efficiency for a
cluster of developed or developing markets in Asia-Pacific include Chye and Kendall (1992),
Worthington and Higgs (2006), Hamid et al. (2010), Jayanthi (2010), etc. Chye and Kendall
(1992) found the existence of weak and semi-strong form of EMH for Singapore, Malaysia
and Indonesia. The results revealed the presence of unit root in asset prices for the sample
period, except in 1975 and 1976 for Singapore and Malaysia.
Worthington and Higgs (2006) examined the presence of weak form of market efficiency
for 10 Asian developing markets and five developed markets. For the same, the authors
explained random walk with reference to three restrictive hypothesis (RW1, RW2 and RW3)
and used different tests to prove each hypothesis. The results of serial correlation and run
test confirmed the presence of weak form of market efficiency. The results of unit root provided
evidence of weak form of efficiency, except for Australia and Taiwan. However, the variance
ratio test rejected the evidence of random walk in both the emerging and developed markets.
Hamid et al. (2010) tested the presence of random walk in 14 major Asia-Pacific indices
from January 2004-December 2009. The run test results failed to reject the null hypothesis of
randomness for all markets and the results of serial correlation test revealed insignificant
autocorrelation coefficients for all selected lags. The return series is non-stationary at order
I(0) and becomes stationary at order I(1) at 1% and 5% levels of significance. The variance
ratio test revealed that Asia-Pacific region affirms inefficiency. Jayanthi (2010) investigated
the presence of random walk in major Asian indices. The results of run test and autocorrelation
test rejected the null hypothesis of independent returns and zero autocorrelation coefficients
and revealed the presence of weak form of inefficiency in all selected indices.
Jayaraman and Ramaratnam (2011) found that the markets of the US, Japan, China,
South Korea, Brazil, India, UK, France, Hong Kong and Singapore do not follow any pattern
and are weak form efficient. The authors employed the run test to check the independence of
consecutive returns for the period January-December 2010. Nisar and Hanif (2012)
investigated the weak form of market efficiency in four indices of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh
and Sri Lanka for the daily, weekly and monthly returns from 1997-2011. For daily returns,
the run test rejected the null hypothesis of successive independent returns for all markets,
whereas mixed results were reported for weekly and monthly returns. The daily, weekly and
R E( R)
U
R
2N A N B
E( R)OR 1
NA NB
2N A N B[2N A N B N A N B ]
( N A N B )2( N A N B 1)
m
2 ( k)
LB n( n 2)
n k ~ m
k 1
2
where (k) is the estimated autocorrelation coefficient and ‘k’ is the given lag and ‘n’ is the
sample size.
RW2 states that it is possible to predict future volatility of the market based on variances
of past prices wherein the returns are serially uncorrelated but increments are independent
but not identically distributed. The present study uses unit root test (i.e., Augmented Dickey-
Fuller test) to determine if the series is difference or trend non-stationary as a necessary
condition of random walk.
m
yt 1 2 yt 1 y
i 1
i t i t
where t is a pure white noise error term, yt = yt–1 – yt–2, m is the number of lagged terms,
t is the trend term, 2 is the estimated coefficient for the trend and 1 is the constant.
RW1 is the most restrictive assumption and states that random walk hypothesis exists in
the strictest sense when returns are serially uncorrelated with independent and identical
increments. Multiple variance ratio test is employed to test the uncorrelated residuals in the
series under assumptions of both homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity. Further, the
variance ratio postulates that the variance of the increments in a random walk is linear, and
in case of equally spaced return series, the variance of qth difference is equal to q times the
variance of its first difference. In other words, variance of a monthly price change is four
times that of weekly price change and variance of biweekly change is twice of weekly price
change.
1 1 2
Var(Pt Pt q )
Var (q) = q q
2(1)
Var(Pt Pt 1 )
Daily –0.0001 –0.0001 –0.0001 –0.0002 –0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 –0.0001 0.0000
Mean Weekly –0.0003 –0.0005 –0.0003 –0.0008 –0.0010 –0.0002 0.0003 –0.0002 –0.0005 0.0001
Monthly –0.0015 –0.002 –0.0012 –0.0035 –0.0042 –0.00075 0.0013 –0.0008 –0.002 0.0006
Median Weekly –0.0013 0.0000 –0.0009 –0.0020 –0.0019 –0.0010 –0.0004 –0.0006 –0.0019 –0.0010
Monthly –0.0051 –0.003 –0.0045 –0.0044 –0.0093 –0.0039 –0.0015 –0.0045 –0.004 –0.0008
Daily 0.0372 0.0405 0.0640 0.0513 0.0553 0.1049 0.0526 0.0400 0.0556 0.0432
Maximum Weekly 0.0769 0.0647 0.0865 0.0755 0.1044 0.0826 0.1211 0.1108 0.0995 0.0621
Daily –0.0264 –0.0483 –0.0749 –0.0694 –0.0570 –0.0904 –0.0575 –0.0559 –0.0490 –0.0370
Minimum Weekly –0.0352 –0.0606 –0.0604 –0.0572 –0.0182 –0.1152 –0.0497 –0.0863 –0.0757 –0.0796
Monthly –0.0319 –0.121 –0.1099 –0.1081 –0.1086 –0.1278 –0.0525 –0.1079 –0.173 –0.0974
Daily 0.0043 0.0070 0.0077 0.0073 0.0076 0.0069 0.0068 0.0061 0.0087 0.0068
Standard
Weekly 0.0091 0.0147 0.0158 0.0156 0.0181 0.0136 0.0135 0.0142 0.0190 0.0153
Deviation
Monthly 0.0169 0.0355 0.0338 0.3315 0.0392 0.03197 0.0257 0.0323 0.0398 0.0328
23
24
Table 1 (Cont.)
AUS CHI HK IND INDO MAL JAP SING KOR TAI
Daily 0.5979 0.2105 –0.1173 0.0912 0.1867 –0.4212 0.2923 0.0268 0.1949 0.1538
Skewness Weekly 1.1485 –0.0413 0.4226 0.3459 0.4390 –0.0264 0.9959 0.4723 0.5074 0.1664
Monthly 1.0377 0.2221 –0.4939 0.3717 1.1297 0.0552 0.7123 0.3473 –0.122 0.1016
Daily 9.7191 7.7402 12.1973 8.4324 9.8893 57.6365 8.7029 10.2104 7.0255 5.4848
Kurtosis Weekly 10.4184 4.8187 5.9928 4.9720 7.3677 14.0530 10.9626 11.5130 6.7739 5.0065
Monthly 4.4806 4.4949 5.3811 3.638 6.8022 6.4537 4.3369 5.6277 5.0256 3.3393
Daily 7,867.42 3,879.16 14,047.63 4,713.61 7,477.43 4,90,925.30 5,377.41 8,719.57 2,604.73 997.04
Jarque Bera Weekly 2,098.22 114.36 336.49 147.23 654.15 4,239.77 2,329.91 2,546.38 511.63 136.35
Monthly 51.73 19.36 52.89 7.40 150.79 95.02 30.38 58.79 32.09 1.21
Daily 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
P-Value Weekly 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Monthly 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Daily 4,054 4,111 3,983 3,829 3,770 3,946 3,927 4,025 3,822 3,817
Observations Weekly 835 828 835 809 791 831 830 833 804 791
Monthly 191 191 191 185 185 191 191 191 185 185
Note: AUS – Australia; CHI – China; HK – Hong Kong; IND – India; MAL – Malaysia; JAP – Japan; SING – Singapore; KOR – Korea; TAI – Taiwan.
AUS Q-Stat. 1.2386 1.4938 4.1144 4.1274 4.1397 5.1781 9.1743 9.2353 10.0570 10.5260
Prob. 0.2660 0.4740 0.2490 0.3890 0.5290 0.5210 0.2400 0.3230 0.3460 0.3960
AC –0.0120 –0.0220 0.0370 0.0540 –0.0080 –0.0280 0.0150 –0.0120 –0.0190 0.0140
CHI Q-Stat. 0.5469 2.4570 8.2113 20.4240 20.6790 23.8920 24.8760 25.5080 27.0080 27.8050
Prob. 0.4600 0.2930 0.0420 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0020
AC –0.0050 –0.0240 0.0380 –0.0360 –0.0420 0.0160 0.0020 0.0160 0.0020 –0.0190
HK Q-Stat. 0.1099 2.4629 8.3106 13.5680 20.6440 21.6450 21.6540 22.7300 22.7470 24.1980
Prob. 0.7400 0.2920 0.0400 0.0090 0.0010 0.0010 0.0030 0.0040 0.0070 0.0070
AC 0.0700 –0.0350 0.0000 0.0180 –0.0290 –0.0510 0.0160 0.0470 0.0410 0.0160
IND Q-Stat 18.7790 23.3580 23.3580 24.6440 27.9260 37.7350 38.7000 47.2680 53.8280 54.7780
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AC 0.1420 0.0250 –0.0190 –0.0210 –0.0320 –0.0300 –0.0180 –0.0060 0.0010 0.0290
INDO Q-Stat. 76.2080 78.4760 79.8760 81.5690 85.5300 88.9160 90.1610 90.2850 90.2890 93.5550
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AC –0.0300 0.0290 0.0070 –0.0800 0.0490 –0.0120 –0.0080 –0.0050 0.0130 0.0200
MAL Q-Stat. 3.4900 6.8451 7.0122 32.5150 41.9360 42.5140 42.7610 42.8470 43.4930 45.0670
Prob. 0.0620 0.0330 0.0720 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
JAP Q-Stat. 5.2346 10.9280 11.0890 14.2030 15.0670 15.0850 15.2130 15.2170 17.4400 22.0840
Prob. 0.0220 0.0040 0.0110 0.0070 0.0100 0.0200 0.0330 0.0550 0.0420 0.0150
AC 0.0800 0.0320 0.0100 0.0010 0.0010 –0.0320 0.0150 –0.0110 –0.0060 0.0390
SING Q-Stat. 25.6200 29.7410 30.1340 30.1350 30.1410 34.3640 35.2290 35.7250 35.8710 41.9700
AC 0.0600 –0.0380 –0.0210 –0.0380 –0.0400 0.0030 0.0190 0.0200 0.0120 0.0020
KOR Q-Stat. 13.7890 19.3080 20.9370 26.3520 32.4410 32.4700 33.8340 35.3520 35.8590 35.8680
Prob. 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AC 0.0480 0.0280 0.0160 –0.0420 -0.0120 –0.0370 0.0140 0.0200 –0.0110 0.0030
TAI Q-Stat. 8.8703 11.9240 12.9210 19.7780 20.3440 25.6070 26.3260 27.7980 28.2220 28.2490
Prob. 0.0030 0.0030 0.0050 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0020
27
28
Table 3b: Serial Correlation Test Results for Weekly Returns
Lags 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AC –0.0180 0.0210 –0.0160 –0.0420 0.0600 0.0440 –0.0380 0.0050 0.0270 –0.0310
AUS Q-Stat. 0.2652 0.6365 0.8398 2.3421 5.3319 6.9741 8.2208 8.2451 8.8802 9.7192
Prob. 0.6070 0.7270 0.8400 0.6730 0.3770 0.3230 0.3140 0.4100 0.4480 0.4640
AC 0.0660 0.0560 0.1020 0.0070 0.0140 0.0540 –0.0050 0.0820 0.0420 0.0480
CHI Q-Stat. 3.5877 6.1874 14.8520 14.8970 15.0500 17.5300 17.5560 23.2340 24.7240 26.6230
Prob. 0.0580 0.0450 0.0020 0.0050 0.0100 0.0080 0.0140 0.0030 0.0030 0.0030
AC 0.0130 0.0720 –0.0050 0.0330 –0.0400 0.0320 –0.0260 0.0290 0.0230 0.0040
HK Q-Stat. 0.1357 4.4588 4.4796 5.4148 6.7784 7.6463 8.2049 8.9385 9.3767 9.3911
Prob. 0.7130 0.1080 0.2140 0.2470 0.2380 0.2650 0.3150 0.3480 0.4030 0.4950
AC 0.0290 0.0870 –0.0190 0.0130 –0.0240 0.0140 –0.0520 0.0520 0.0810 –0.0150
IND Q-Stat. 0.6743 6.8744 7.1684 7.3105 7.7677 7.9305 10.1360 12.3200 17.7020 17.8970
Prob. 0.4120 0.0320 0.0670 0.1200 0.1700 0.2430 0.1810 0.1370 0.0390 0.0570
AC –0.0440 0.0840 0.1100 0.0330 0.1300 –0.0210 –0.0370 –0.0050 –0.0090 –0.0930
INDO Q-Stat. 1.5537 7.2292 16.8270 17.6870 31.1420 31.5060 32.5730 32.5920 32.6530 39.5380
Prob. 0.2130 0.0270 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
MAL Q-Stat. 0.8399 10.2700 10.2790 22.9650 22.9680 24.3170 36.9540 37.1650 37.9290 43.7560
Prob. 0.3590 0.0060 0.0160 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AC –0.0360 –0.0380 0.0060 –0.0280 –0.0150 –0.0020 0.0060 0.0010 –0.0240 0.0340
Prob. 0.0220 0.0040 0.0110 0.0070 0.0100 0.0200 0.0330 0.0550 0.0420 0.0150
AC 0.0510 0.0340 0.0970 –0.0270 0.0230 0.0580 0.0200 –0.0230 0.0170 0.0250
SING Q-Stat. 2.1747 3.1343 10.9830 11.6150 12.0520 14.9120 15.2560 15.7140 15.9630 16.5120
AC –0.0910 0.0820 0.0320 0.0520 0.0150 –0.0020 0.0200 0.0310 0.0090 –0.0520
KOR Q-Stat. 6.6174 12.0170 12.8400 15.0170 15.1880 15.1910 15.5030 16.2970 16.3660 18.5560
Prob. 0.0100 0.0020 0.0050 0.0050 0.0100 0.0190 0.0300 0.0380 0.0600 0.0460
AC –0.0130 0.0300 0.0770 0.0180 0.0130 –0.0180 0.0410 0.0400 –0.0060 0.0060
TAI Q-Stat. 0.1285 0.8217 5.5624 5.8216 5.9533 6.2251 7.5543 8.8134 8.8414 8.8709
Prob. 0.7200 0.6630 0.1350 0.2130 0.3110 0.3980 0.3740 0.3580 0.4520 0.5440
29
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Table 3c: Serial Correlation Test Results for Monthly Returns
Lags 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AC 0.1090 0.0600 0.1250 0.0550 –0.0480 –0.0370 0.0530 –0.0130 –0.0330 –0.0220
AUS Q-Stat. 2.3213 3.0161 6.0887 6.6927 7.1491 7.4182 7.9906 8.0266 8.2511 8.3523
Prob. 0.1280 0.2210 0.1070 0.1530 0.2100 0.2840 0.3330 0.4310 0.5090 0.5940
AC 0.0770 0.1830 0.0190 0.1760 0.0250 –0.0890 0.0940 0.0050 0.0580 –0.0260
CHI Q-Stat. 1.1650 7.6821 7.7534 13.8430 13.9660 15.5500 17.3110 17.3150 18.0040 18.1470
Prob. 0.2800 0.0210 0.0510 0.0080 0.0160 0.0160 0.0160 0.0270 0.0350 0.0530
AC 0.0660 0.0140 –0.0250 –0.0370 –0.0220 –0.0020 0.0680 0.0140 0.0070 0.0198
HK Q-Stat. 0.8403 0.8782 0.9964 1.2596 1.3588 1.3599 2.2951 2.3361 2.3447 2.4141
Prob. 0.3590 0.6450 0.8020 0.8680 0.9290 0.9680 0.9420 0.9690 0.9850 0.9920
AC 0.0520 0.0640 0.0450 0.0600 0.0020 0.0030 –0.0490 –0.0860 0.0200 0.0070
IND Q-Stat. 0.4995 1.2675 1.6446 2.3284 2.3296 2.3317 2.7964 4.2450 4.3247 4.3349
Prob. 0.4800 0.5310 0.6490 0.6760 0.8020 0.8870 0.9030 0.8340 0.8890 0.9310
AC 0.1650 –0.0960 0.0160 0.0440 –0.0020 0.0800 –0.0860 –0.0570 –0.0540 0.0370
INDO Q-Stat. 5.1489 6.8862 6.9369 7.3117 7.3126 8.5633 9.9909 10.6220 11.2040 11.4760
Prob. 0.0230 0.0320 0.0740 0.1200 0.1980 0.2000 0.1890 0.2240 0.2620 0.3220
MAL Q-Stat. 6.8283 10.3810 11.5590 14.8860 14.8920 16.2090 26.6900 26.6920 33.2430 33.5410
Prob. 0.0090 0.0060 0.0090 0.0050 0.0110 0.0130 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0000
AC 0.1070 0.0490 0.0360 0.0390 –0.0620 –0.0110 –0.0480 0.0300 0.0720 0.0220
Prob. 0.1360 0.2600 0.4010 0.5180 0.5500 0.3800 0.4400 0.5330 0.5270 0.6120
AC 0.1080 0.0780 –0.0060 –0.0180 0.0150 –0.0350 0.0990 0.0400 –0.0250 –0.1000
SING Q-Stat. 2.2618 3.4607 3.4681 3.5348 3.5780 3.8218 5.7690 6.0890 6.2118 8.2592
AC 0.1480 –0.0270 0.0210 –0.0450 –0.0010 0.0450 0.0170 0.0060 0.0130 –0.0710
KOR Q-Stat. 4.1180 4.2574 4.3416 4.7320 4.7323 5.1269 5.1806 5.1876 5.2211 6.2201
Prob. 0.0420 0.1190 0.2270 0.3160 0.4490 0.5280 0.6380 0.7370 0.8150 0.7960
AC 0.0880 0.1550 –0.0390 –0.0480 –0.0620 –0.1880 0.0690 –0.1360 0.0510 0.0180
TAI Q-Stat. 1.4439 5.9818 6.2749 6.7209 7.4679 14.3080 15.2400 18.8530 19.3720 19.4350
Prob. 0.2300 0.0500 0.0990 0.1510 0.1880 0.0260 0.0330 0.0160 0.0220 0.0350
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Table 4: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Results for Daily, Weekly and Monthly Returns
Daily Weekly Monthly
Level Difference Level Difference Level Difference
t- t- t- t- t- t-
p-Value p-Value p-Value p-Value p-Value p-Value
Statistics Statistics Statistics Statistics Statistics Statistics
AUS –1.7094 0.4265 –64.7615 0.0001 –1.6934 0.4343 –29.3387 0.0000 –1.6497 0.4552 –12.2534 0.0000
CHI –1.9041 0.3307 –64.8366 0.0001 –1.9060 0.3297 –26.8772 0.0000 –1.9294 0.3183 –7.8407 0.0000
HK –1.6222 0.4711 –63.4114 0.0001 –1.4836 0.5417 –28.4619 0.0000 –1.5497 0.5063 –12.8050 0.0000
IND –0.4237 0.9028 –57.6567 0.0001 –0.3235 0.9188 –18.1275 0.0000 –0.3384 0.9154 –12.8445 0.0000
INDO 0.0868 0.9648 –53.1861 0.0001 0.1737 0.9708 –29.3208 0.0000 –0.3239 0.9176 –12.0213 0.0000
MAL –1.0567 0.7347 –33.5769 0.0000 –0.8809 0.7944 –17.9776 0.0000 –1.5751 0.4934 –11.2829 0.0000
JAP –2.1507 0.2249 –64.9922 0.0001 –1.8013 0.3801 –30.0209 0.0000 –1.6887 0.4354 –12.3358 0.0000
SING –1.3099 0.6272 –58.5421 0.0001 –1.2741 0.6433 –27.3569 0.0000 –1.6868 0.4363 –12.2721 0.0000
KOR –1.0380 0.7417 –58.1970 0.0001 –0.9507 0.7719 –30.9745 0.0000 –0.9885 0.7571 –11.5953 0.0000
TAI –2.5007 0.1154 –58.8432 0.0001 –2.4760 0.1218 –28.3963 0.0000 –2.6804 0.0794 –7.8417 0.0000
Note: For ADF test, null hypothesis ( H0) is: Presence of unit root (non-stationarity) and alternate hypothesis (H1) is: No unit root (stationarity). The optimal lag length
for ADF Test is selected by using Schwartz Info Criterion. Intercept only in the series. The ADF (Level and First Difference) critical values with an intercept are—
3.43, –2.86 and –2.567 at 1%, 5% and 10% levels.
Period VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q
q=2 0.4876 –32.6203 –16.0506 0.5049 –31.7386 –16.7065 0.5096 –30.9412 –11.1340 0.5565 –27.4395 –15.1188 0.5588 –26.4702 –13.9310
q=4 0.2454 –25.6780 –13.5132 0.2336 –26.2617 –15.0601 0.2581 –25.0248 –9.6178 –0.2643 –24.3310 –14.3338 0.2981 –23.0347 –13.1249
Daily
q=16 0.0625 –13.5589 –7.8118 0.0620 –13.6618 –9.3672 0.0627 –13.4368 –6.3967 0.0674 –13.1094 –8.8758 0.0712 –12.9549 –8.6310
q=2 0.4814 –14.9764 –7.5868 0.5055 –14.2203 –9.1913 0.4707 –15.2865 –10.5192 0.4704 –15.0528 –9.7922 0.4394 –15.7562 –7.9291
q=4 0.2568 –11.4718 –6.3538 0.2660 –11.2826 –7.8714 0.2461 –11.6378 –8.5825 0.2554 –11.3123 –7.8154 0.2332 –11.5198 –6.4833
q=16 0.0622 –6.1526 –3.8681 0.0635 –6.1183 –4.9326 0.0642 –6.1397 –4.8184 0.0644 –6.0418 –4.7784 0.0571 –6.0209 –3.9532
q=2 0.5333 –6.4335 –4.6891 0.4406 –7.7111 –5.2623 0.5322 –6.4483 –4.0642 0.4986 –6.8009 –5.6153 0.6724 –4.4436 –3.7991
q=4 0.2719 –5.3643 –4.2293 0.2247 –5.7122 –4.2235 0.2829 –5.2828 –3.5634 0.2544 –5.4061 –4.7011 0.2906 –5.1434 –4.2695
Monthly
q=8 0.1481 –3.9698 –3.4538 0.1411 –4.0020 –3.1537 0.1373 –4.0199 –2.8751 0.1511 –3.8925 –3.5669 0.1683 –3.8138 –3.1582
q=16 0.0696 –2.9136 –2.7176 0.0829 –2.8719 –2.3273 0.0633 –2.9334 –2.2701 0.0778 –2.8417 –2.6939 0.0857 –2.8175 –2.3551
33
34
Table 5 (Cont.)
MAL JAP SING KOR TAI
Period VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q VRq Zq Z*q
q=2 0.4716 –33.1854 –4.7731 0.5009 –31.2690 –14.9164 0.5262 –30.0544 –14.2303 0.5524 –27.6655 –16.2259 0.5106 –30.2297 –19.0730
q=4 0.2627 –24.7540 –4.2362 0.2479 –25.1888 –12.3285 0.2719 –24.6885 –12.4843 0.2764 –23.9087 14.8573 0.2741 –23.9684 –16.1322
Daily
q=8 0.1224 –18.6351 –3.8900 0.1205 –18.6301 –9.6211 0.1378 –18.4898 –10.2424 0.1308 –18.1637 –11.9015 0.1291 –18.1868 –13.0677
q=16 0.0629 –13.3721 –3.4405 0.0635 13.3310 –7.4249 0.0688 –13.4200 –8.0767 0.0654 –13.1245 –8.9809 0.0675 –13.0861 –9.8877
q=2 0.4626 –15.4836 –6.2708 0.4408 –16.1013 –7.6138 0.5102 –14.1269 –6.9911 0.4219 –16.3815 –8.4281 0.4800 –14.1610 –9.9185
q=4 0.2279 –11.8906 –5.1840 0.2409 –11.6826 –5.8565 0.2725 –11.2159 –6.1659 0.2188 –11.8320 –6.5487 0.2440 –11.3582 –8.2837
Weekly
q=8 0.1291 –8.4826 –3.9748 0.1226 –8.5407 –4.8246 0.1369 –8.4166 –4.9563 0.1127 –8.4996 –5.0639 0.1203 –8.3590 –6.4892
q=16 0.0682 –6.0987 –3.0318 0.0614 –6.1397 –3.9178 0.0670 –6.1137 –3.9244 0.0611 –6.0446 –3.9051 0.0649 –5.9709 –4.9194
q=2 0.5367 –6.3862 –3.9279 0.5365 –6.3880 –5.4112 0.5211 –6.6013 –4.0898 0.6079 –5.3186 –3.6223 0.4635 –7.2772 –5.3705
q=4 0.3565 –4.7413 –3.0978 0.2756 –5.3375 –4.6062 0.2939 –5.2026 –3.5442 0.3034 –5.0501 –3.7437 0.2889 –5.1559 –4.1647
Monthly
q=8 0.1602 –3.9135 –2.6815 0.1422 –3.9971 –3.6048 0.1429 –3.9942 –2.8708 0.1409 –3.9396 –3.1512 0.1626 –3.8400 –3.4099
q=16 0.0770 –2.8905 –1.9191 0.0761 –2.8934 –2.7299 0.0724 –2.9048 –2.1675 0.0858 –2.8174 –2.3642 0.0867 –2.8145 –2.5854
Note: VRq is Variance Ratio estimate; Zq is the null hypothesis under homoskedastic assumption; and Z*q is the null hypothesis under heteroskedastic assumption,
q is the sampling interval, i.e., 2, 4, 8 and 16 days.
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Reference # 01J-2015-10-02-01