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1
FOREWORD
Dear Colleagues,
I wish all the best to the officials in the executive cadre in their
endeavours.
➢ Keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged
at 6.50 percent.
➢ The standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25 percent and
the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 percent.
➢ These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-
term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 percent within a band of
+/- 2 percent, while supporting growth.
➢ RBI has indicated that the Government’s focus on capital expenditure in the
recent budgets, including the Union Budget 2023-24, could be effective in
stimulating private investment and domestic demand with beneficial effects
accruing over time. A 1 percentage point increase in public investment
increases private investment by 0.6 percentage point in the first year and the
cumulative impact over a 3-year period is over 1.0 percentage point. The
multiplier for public investment on private investment is 1.2 and on overall GDP
is 1.7 over a three-year period.
With CPI headline inflation ruling persistently above the tolerance band, the MPC
decided to remain resolutely focused on aligning inflation with the target. It is essential
to rein in the generalization of price pressures and anchor inflation expectations. An
environment of low and stable prices is necessary for the resilience in domestic
economic activity to be sustained. While the policy rate has been increased by a
cumulative 250 basis points since May 2022, which is still working through the system,
there can be no room for letting down the guard on price stability. Taking these factors
into account, the MPC decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per
cent in this meeting, with readiness to act, should the situation so warrant. The MPC
will continue to keep a strong vigil on the evolving inflation and growth outlook and
will not hesitate to take further action as may be required in its future meetings. The
MPC also decided to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure
that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.
Much water has flown since RBI permitted offshore units of Indian banks to participate
in the NDF market in mid-2020, to curb the volatility induced by rupee through
heightened activity taking place in offshore markets. The recent stability in rupee,
notwithstanding a tumultuous phase for currencies stuck in a dollar trap globally, has
also been attributed to RBI’s ability to manoeuvre successfully through both offshore,
as also onshore NDF markets apart from having a say in the spot market too. Further,
with crisis brewing in global financial system and the opaqueness of the offshore
dealings sans much regulatory insights or control, it is a prudent move indeed to
permit banks with IBUs to offer NDDCs involving INR to resident users (corporates/
institutions from different territories to begin with) in the onshore market (chiefly GIFT
city which, with some luck on its side, should be able to push through in the league of
major global financial centres as a credible alternative to not only meaty neighbours
like Hong Kong or Singapore but also taking a slice from established names like
London or NY further facilitating internationalization of domestic currency plans) while
saving big on fees paid in overseas jurisdictions.
This measure will further deepen the forex market in India and provide enhanced
flexibility to residents in meeting their hedging requirements. A non-deliverable
forward contract allows two parties to lock in exchange rate for a period of time.
RBI makes changes in NEFT, RTGS systems for reporting foreign remittances
Under the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA), foreign contributions have to
be received only in the "FCRA account" of State Bank of India (SBI), New Delhi Main
Branch (NDMB). These contributions are received directly from foreign banks through
SWIFT, and from Indian intermediary banks through NEFT and RTGS systems.
RBI spells out its concerns to banks about lower deposit mobilisation
Concerned about the faster growth in bank credit vis-à-vis slower deposit mobilisation
in the last one decade, the RBI met up with the top-brass of several public- and private-
sector banks. In this meeting, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das advised banks to be
cognizant of the continually-evolving macroeconomic situation and take proactive
measures for mitigation well in time. This will help reduce the potential impact on their
balance sheets and contain financial risks before they turn too detrimental.
RBI Governor wants banks to mobilise deposits, lessen reliance on RBI money
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das wants banks to start mobilising more deposits to
support credit growth. They cannot rely perennially on the central bank’s money to
support credit offtake. Banks have already started passing on the hike in repo rates to
their depositors and the trend is expected to continue.
As for liquidity, the RBI Governor avers that the apex bank is constantly ensuring that
there is adequate liquidity in the system. RBI will do two-way operations for dealing
with the prevailing liquidity situation. “Last month there was a sudden squeeze on
liquidity for 3-4 days because of very high GST and other tax collections. So, we
conducted a fine-tuning operation of injecting repo of three days maturity” he said.
RBI allows international trade settlement in INR; exporters can get payment in
rupees
With the global trading community showing increasing interest in the Indian rupee, the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has directed banks to make additional arrangements for
export and import transactions in Indian rupees. However, banks will need prior
approval from RBI’s Foreign Exchange Department before making such
arrangements. Exporters using this mechanism, to undertake overseas shipments of
goods & services, will receive payment of the export proceeds in INR. It will also help
them get advance payment against exports from overseas importers, in INR. These
payments will be made from the balances kept in the designated Special Vostro
account. RBI has specified that the rupee surplus balance can be used for permissible
capital and current account transactions (such as, payments for projects and
investments; export/import advance flow management; and investment in government
bonds) in accordance with mutual agreement.
Domestic Growth:
The second advance estimate (SAE) released by the National Statistical Office (NSO)
on February 28, 2023, placed India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.0
percent in 2022-23. Private consumption and public investment were the major drivers
of growth.
Economic activity remained resilient in Q4. Rabi food grain production is expected to
increase by 6.2 percent in 2022-23. The index of industrial production (IIP) expanded
by 5.2 percent in January while the output of eight core industries rose even faster by
8.9 percent in January and 6.0 percent in February, indicative of the strength of
industrial activity. In the services sector, domestic air passenger traffic, port freight
traffic, e-way bills, and toll collections posted healthy growth in Q4, while railway freight
traffic registered modest growth. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) pointed
towards sustained expansion in both manufacturing and services in March.
Amongst urban demand indicators, passenger vehicle sales recorded strong growth
in February while consumer durables contracted in January. Among rural demand
indicators, tractor and two-wheeler sales were robust in February. As regards
investment activity, growth in steel consumption and cement output accelerated in
February. Merchandise exports and non -oil non-gold imports contracted in February
while the strong growth in services exports continued.
The average daily absorption under the LAF moderated to ₹1.4 lakh crore during
February-March from an average of ₹1.6 lakh crore in December-January. During
2022-23, money supply (M3) expanded by 9.0 percent and non-food bank credit rose
by 15.4 percent. India’s foreign exchange reserves were placed at US$ 578.4 billion
as on March 31, 2023.
Outlook:
The inflation trajectory for 2023-24 would be shaped by both domestic and global
factors. The expectation of a record rabi foodgrains production bodes well for the food
prices outlook. The impact of recent unseasonal rains and hailstorms, however, needs
to be watched. Milk prices could remain firm due to high input costs and seasonal
factors. The crude oil prices outlook is subject to high uncertainty. Global financial
market volatility has surged, with potential upsides for imported inflation risks. Easing
cost conditions are leading to some moderation in the pace of output price increases
in manufacturing and services, as indicated by the Reserve Bank’s enterprise surveys.
The lagged pass-through of input costs could, however, keep core inflation elevated.
Taking into account these factors and assuming an annual average crude oil price
(Indian basket) of US$ 85 per barrel and a normal monsoon, CPI inflation is projected
at 5.2 percent for 2023-24, with Q1 at 5.1 percent, Q2 at 5.4 percent, Q3 at 5.4 per
cent and Q4 at 5.2 percent, and risks evenly balanced.
A good rabi crop should strengthen rural demand, while the sustained bu oyancy in
contact-intensive services should support urban demand. The government’s thrust on
capital expenditure, above-trend capacity utilization in manufacturing, double-digit
credit growth, and the moderation in commodity prices are expected to bolster
Market Trends:
Nifty 50 17,359.75
Bank Nifty 35,410.10
After watching shares in Credit Suisse (CS) collapse by as much as 30%, Swiss
authorities announced a backstop for the country’s second-biggest bank. It calmed the
immediate market panic, but the global player is not out of the woods yet. Investors
and customers are worried that it doesn’t have a credible plan to reverse a long-term
decline in its business.
First Republic Bank was teetering on the brink as customers withdrew their deposits. In
a meeting in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Jamie Dimon, the
CEO of America’s biggest bank, drew up plans for a private sector rescue. The result
was an agreement with a group of American lenders to deposit tens of billions of dollars
of cash into First Republic to staunch the bleeding.
More than $400 billion so far in direct support. In guaranteeing all deposits at Silicon
Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the US Federal Reserve is on the hook for $140
billion. Then there’s the $54 billion the Swiss National Bank offered Credit Suisse in
the form of an emergency loan and 209 billion Swiss francs ($225 billion) offered to
UBS in loans, guaranteed by the Swiss state, and protection against potential losses.
The Fed has also agreed record amounts of loans to other banks last week. Banks
borrowed nearly $153 billion from the Fed in recent days, smashing the previous
record of $112 billion set during the crisis of 2008.
Banks also drew on nearly $12 billion of loans from the Fed’s new emergency lending
program established at the start of the week with the aim of preventing more banks
collapsing.
The $318 billion the Fed has loaned in total to the financial system is about half what
was extended during the global financial crisis.
The banking industry has also coughed up billions. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America
and Citigroup are among a group of 11 lenders providing the $30 billion cash infusion
aimed at shoring up confidence in First Republic Bank.
HSBC has reportedly committed more than $2 billion to SVB’s UK business, which it
bought on Sunday for £1.
“If banks are under stress, they might be reluctant to lend,” US Treasury Secretary
Janet Yellen said Thursday in testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. “We could
see credit become more expensive and less available.”
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters Thursday
that “persistently elevated market tensions” could further constrict credit conditions
that were already tightening in response to rising interest rates.
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