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New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

icio:
Economic analysis with Inter-Country
Input-Output tables

Federico Belotti1 Alessandro Borin2 Michele Mancini2

1
Tor Vergata
2
Bank of Italy

International workshop NESPUTT


21-22 November 2019 - University of Milano - Bicocca

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 1 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

International fragmentation of production

Since ICT revolution and globalization: traditional trade statistics do not


provide an adequate representation of supply and demand linkages
among the economies anymore.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

International fragmentation of production

Since ICT revolution and globalization: traditional trade statistics do not


provide an adequate representation of supply and demand linkages
among the economies anymore.
With the spread of GVCs, lots of new questions (e. g. measuring
participation and positioning in GVC, assess exposure to shocks...).

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

International fragmentation of production

Since ICT revolution and globalization: traditional trade statistics do not


provide an adequate representation of supply and demand linkages
among the economies anymore.
With the spread of GVCs, lots of new questions (e. g. measuring
participation and positioning in GVC, assess exposure to shocks...).

Need new macro data, new methods of analysis and new tools to answer
to old and new questions.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New tools

Saving time: lots of theory, lots of data sources, lots of coding.


icio: Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in
Stata. tradeconomics.com/icio/
ssc install icio
- computes lots of new measures of GVC participation and trade in
value-added.
- theory: based on Borin and Mancini (2019).
- data: WIOD, TiVA, EORA ready to use + user-provided table.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New tools

Saving time: lots of theory, lots of data sources, lots of coding.


icio: Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in
Stata. tradeconomics.com/icio/
ssc install icio
- computes lots of new measures of GVC participation and trade in
value-added.
- theory: based on Borin and Mancini (2019).
- data: WIOD, TiVA, EORA ready to use + user-provided table.

Dataset of country/sector measures based on WIOD, TiVA and


EORA: World Bank WDR2020 website Link

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Loading ICIO tables

See the help file:


help icio
See the available ICIO databases:
icio_load, info

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Loading ICIO tables

See the help file:


help icio
See the available ICIO databases:
icio_load, info
Load an Input-Output table: WIOD, TiVA, EORA ready to use
icio_load, iciot(wiodn) year(2014)
icio_load, iciot(tivan) year(2015)
icio_load, iciot(eora) year(2015)
Info on countries and sectors covered by the selected database:
icio, info

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Loading ICIO tables

See the help file:


help icio
See the available ICIO databases:
icio_load, info
Load an Input-Output table: WIOD, TiVA, EORA ready to use
icio_load, iciot(wiodn) year(2014)
icio_load, iciot(tivan) year(2015)
icio_load, iciot(eora) year(2015)
Info on countries and sectors covered by the selected database:
icio, info
But also user-provided tables might be used:
icio_load, iciot(user, userp("D:\data\euregio")
tablen(euregio2010) countrylist(list.csv))

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 5 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 5 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 6 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )

Final demand of country s:


G X
X G G
X G
X G
X
FDs = Vj Bjk Yks = Vs Bsk Yks + Vt Btk Yks .
j k k t6=s k
| {z } | {z }
domestically FD produced
produced FD abroad

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 6 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )

Final demand of country s:


G X
X G G
X G
X G
X
FDs = Vj Bjk Yks = Vs Bsk Yks + Vt Btk Yks .
j k k t6=s k
| {z } | {z }
domestically FD produced
produced FD abroad

Country-sector of origin/final destination:

VA(origin/destination) = VB
b Y.
b

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 6 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Supply-demand linkages: implementation

1 GDP:
icio, origin(country-code[,sector-code] )
2 Final demand:
icio, destination(country-code[,sector-code] )
3 VA by origin-destination
icio, origin(country-code[,sector-code] )
destination(country-code[,sector-code] )

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 7 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. icio_load
Loading table wiod 2014... loaded
. *What is the value-added originated in Germany and absorbed in China?
. icio, origin(deu) destination(chn)
Value-Added by origin/destination:
Origin: DEU
Destination: CHN
Output: Value-Added

Millions of $ % of total

Value-Added 101042.25 100.00

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 8 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. *What is the Germany´s GDP?


. icio, origin(deu)
Value-Added by origin/destination:
Origin: DEU
Output: Value-Added

Millions of $ % of total

Value-Added 3620310.26 100.00

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 9 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Supply-demand linkages: other examples

What is the GDP (value-added) produced by each country?


icio, origin(all)
How much value-added does each country produces in a given sector?
icio, origin(all,19)
What is the aggregate final demand of each country?
icio, destination(all)
Where the value-added produced in the Italian sector 19 is absorbed?
icio, origin(ita,19) destination(all)
Which final demand sectors in China are the most important for the absorption
of US-made value-added?
icio, origin(usa) destination(chn,all)
Where the GDP produced in each country is absorbed? Save the output as
supplydemand.xls in the current working directory?
icio, origin(all) destination(all) save(supplydemand.xls)
How much USMCA (former NAFTA) countries’ final demand in sector 20 is
satisfied by Chinese productions?
icio, origin(chn) destination(usmca,20) groups(usa, mex, can,
“usmca”)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 10 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 11 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 11 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Tracing value-added in trade flows

In many empirical applications, supply-demand linkages are not enough:


need to trace VA in trade flows.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 12 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Tracing value-added in trade flows

In many empirical applications, supply-demand linkages are not enough:


need to trace VA in trade flows.
Start from the aggregate exports of country s:

G
X
uN Es∗ = Vs Bss Es∗ + Vt Bts Es∗ .
t6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestic foreign
content (DCs ) content (FCs )

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 12 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Tracing value-added in trade flows

In many empirical applications, supply-demand linkages are not enough:


need to trace VA in trade flows.
Start from the aggregate exports of country s:

G
X
uN Es∗ = Vs Bss Es∗ + Vt Bts Es∗ .
t6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestic foreign
content (DCs ) content (FCs )

Main problem: some intermediate goods cross country s border several


times, i.e. they are double counted in exports (Koopman et al., 2014).

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 12 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Gross Exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 13 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Gross Exports

Domestic Content Foreign Content


(DC) (FC)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 13 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Gross Exports

Domestic Content Foreign Content


(DC) (FC)

Domestic Domestic Foreign Foreign


Value Added Double Counted Value Added Double Counted
(DVA) (FVA)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 13 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Gross Exports

Domestic Content Foreign Content


(DC) (FC)

Domestic Domestic Foreign Foreign


Value Added Double Counted Value Added Double Counted
(DVA) (FVA)

Value Added
Exports Reflection
(VAX)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 13 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Gross Exports

Domestic Content Foreign Content


(DC) (FC)

Domestic Domestic Foreign Foreign


Value Added Double Counted Value Added Double Counted
(DVA) (FVA)

Value Added
Exports Reflection
(VAX)

Directly
absorbed VAX
(DAVAX)

Indirectly
absorbed VAX

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 13 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New methods

Several ways to trace value-added in gross trade flows, disagreement on


the right method.
We argue that one method does not fit all.
Borin, Mancini, 2019. Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains
and Value-Added Trade, World Bank WDR Background Paper. Link

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 14 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New methods

Several ways to trace value-added in gross trade flows, disagreement on


the right method.
We argue that one method does not fit all.
Borin, Mancini, 2019. Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains
and Value-Added Trade, World Bank WDR Background Paper. Link
New methods and measures:
Depending on the specific empirical issue, how to measure VA
content at the aggregate, bilateral and bilateral-sectoral level.
A measure of GVC-related trade (World Bank WDR 2020).

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 14 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New methods

Several ways to trace value-added in gross trade flows, disagreement on


the right method.
We argue that one method does not fit all.
Borin, Mancini, 2019. Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains
and Value-Added Trade, World Bank WDR Background Paper. Link
New methods and measures:
Depending on the specific empirical issue, how to measure VA
content at the aggregate, bilateral and bilateral-sectoral level.
A measure of GVC-related trade (World Bank WDR 2020).

A general scheme to reconcile large part of the existing literature


(pointing out issues of some works).
Hummels et al., 2001; Johnson and Noguera, 2012; Wang et al.,
2013; Koopman et al. 2014; Borin and Mancini, 2015; Los et al.,
2016; Nagengast and Stehrer, 2016; Johnson, 2018; Miroudot and
Ye, 2018; Los and Timmer, 2018.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 14 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions


Under one framework, there are several perspectives.
Each one is defined by the perimeter according to which something is
double counted.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 15 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions


Under one framework, there are several perspectives.
Each one is defined by the perimeter according to which something is
double counted.
Double counting defined when items cross twice:

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 15 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions


Under one framework, there are several perspectives.
Each one is defined by the perimeter according to which something is
double counted.
Double counting defined when items cross twice:
A generic border: world persp.
Exporting country border: exporter persp.
Exporter-importer border: bilateral persp.
Exporting country/sector-importer border: sectbil persp.
Exporting country/sector border: sectexp persp.
Importing country border: importer persp.
Importing country/sector border: sectimp persp.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 15 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions


Under one framework, there are several perspectives.
Each one is defined by the perimeter according to which something is
double counted.
Double counting defined when items cross twice:
A generic border: world persp.
Exporting country border: exporter persp.
Exporter-importer border: bilateral persp.
Exporting country/sector-importer border: sectbil persp.
Exporting country/sector border: sectexp persp.
Importing country border: importer persp.
Importing country/sector border: sectimp persp.
Other works in the literature fit into our general framework:
e.g. Koopman et al. (2014), Wang et al. (2013), Miroudot and Ye (2018): exporter
for DVA and world for FVA. Los et al. (2016): exporter and bilateral for DVA, no
FVA. Johnson (2018): bilateral in a two-country framework. More

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 15 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions

⇒What part of world trade is GVC-related?


Almost 50% of world trade.
⇒What part of a country’s exports is home-produced?
E.g. just 75% of Japanese exports consist of Japanese GDP.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is absorbed abroad?
E.g. for Germany around one third.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is affected by trade barriers imposed by
a partner?
E.g. Brexit could affect 2.3% of EU GDP.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is affected by a tariff imposed by an
importer in a given sector?
E.g. US tariffs on the EU auto-motive sector could affect around 10% of
the Italian VA production in that sector.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 16 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Different perspectives for different questions

⇒What part of world trade is GVC-related? Exp.-country


Almost 50% of world trade.
⇒What part of a country’s exports is home-produced? Exp.-country
E.g. just 75% of Japanese exports consist of Japanese GDP.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is absorbed abroad? Exp.-country
E.g. for Germany around one third.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is affected by trade barriers imposed by
a partner? Bilateral
E.g. Brexit could affect 2.3% of EU GDP.
⇒What part of a country’s GDP is affected by a tariff imposed by an
importer in a given sector? Sectoral-importer
E.g. US tariffs on the EU auto-motive sector could affect around 10% of
the Italian VA production in that sector.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 16 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting for VA in trade: implementation

Depending on the empirical application, the user should select:


1 The desired trade flow with the options
exporter(country-code[,sector-code] ) and/or
importer(country-code[,sector-code] )

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 17 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting for VA in trade: implementation

Depending on the empirical application, the user should select:


1 The desired trade flow with the options
exporter(country-code[,sector-code] ) and/or
importer(country-code[,sector-code] )
2 The best suited accounting perspective(), and approach() if
needed.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 17 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting for VA in trade: implementation

Depending on the empirical application, the user should select:


1 The desired trade flow with the options
exporter(country-code[,sector-code] ) and/or
importer(country-code[,sector-code] )
2 The best suited accounting perspective(), and approach() if
needed.
3 The appropriate output() measure and the other options:
Output for exports: detailed, gtrade, dc, fc, va, dva, fva.
Output for imports: gtrade, va.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 17 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting for VA in trade: implementation

Depending on the empirical application, the user should select:


1 The desired trade flow with the options
exporter(country-code[,sector-code] ) and/or
importer(country-code[,sector-code] )
2 The best suited accounting perspective(), and approach() if
needed.
3 The appropriate output() measure and the other options:
Output for exports: detailed, gtrade, dc, fc, va, dva, fva.
Output for imports: gtrade, va.
Origin/destination of the flow:
origin(country-code[,sector-code] ) and/or
destination(country-code[,sector-code] )
Country groups: defined with the option groups(grouping-rule
“user-defined-group” [...] )

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 17 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. icio, exporter(deu)
Decomposition of gross exports:
Perspective: exporter
Exporter: DEU
Importer: total DEU exports

Millions of $ % of export

Gross exports (GEXP) 1681987.25 100.00


Domestic content (DC) 1232206.98 73.26
Domestic Value-Added (DVA) 1208782.54 71.87
VAX -> DVA absorbed abroad 1173781.66 69.79
Reflection 35000.88 2.08
Domestic double counting 23424.44 1.39
Foreign content (FC) 449780.27 26.74
Foreign Value-Added (FVA) 439123.84 26.11
Foreign double counting 10656.43 0.63

GVC-related trade (GVC) 778175.78 46.27


GVC-backward (GVCB) 473204.71 28.13
GVC-forward (GVCF) 304971.07 18.13

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 18 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. icio, exporter(chn,17) importer(usa)


Decomposition of gross exports:
Perspective: exporter
Exporter: CHN
Importer: USA
Sector of export: 17

Millions of $ % of export

Gross exports (GEXP) 107292.76 100.00


Domestic content (DC) 79824.00 74.40
Domestic Value-Added (DVA) 77386.31 72.13
VAX -> DVA absorbed abroad 76957.76 71.73
DAVAX 72570.84 67.64
Reflection 428.55 0.40
Domestic double counting 2437.68 2.27
Foreign content (FC) 27468.76 25.60
Foreign Value-Added (FVA) 26827.72 25.00
Foreign double counting 641.04 0.60

GVC-related trade (GVC) 34721.92 32.36


GVC-backward (GVCB) 29906.44 27.87
GVC-forward (GVCF) 4815.48 4.49

DAVAX: Value-Added directly absorbed by the importer

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 19 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. icio, exporter(chn,17) importer(usa) perspective(sectbil)


Decomposition of gross exports:
Perspective: sectbil
Exporter: CHN
Importer: USA
Sector of export: 17

Millions of $ % of export

Gross exports (GEXP) 107292.76 100.00


Domestic content (DC) 79824.00 74.40
Domestic Value-Added (DVA) 79815.64 74.39
VAX -> DVA absorbed abroad 79373.64 73.98
Reflection 442.00 0.41
Domestic double counting 8.36 0.01
Foreign content (FC) 27468.76 25.60
Foreign Value-Added (FVA) 27465.88 25.60
Foreign double counting 2.88 0.00

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 20 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

. icio_load, iciot(user, userp("D:\Dati\EUREGIO") tablen(euregio2010.csv) countrylist(list.csv))


Loading D:\Dati\EUREGIO/euregio2010.csv... loaded
loaded
. icio, origin(all) importer(usa) output(va)
Decomposition of gross imports:
Perspective: importer
Importer: USA
Origin: ALL
Exporter: total USA imports
Output: Value-Added

Millions of $ % of import

AT11 99.94 0.01


AT12 673.66 0.04
AT13 986.53 0.06
AT21 250.86 0.02
AT22 540.69 0.03
AT31 786.75 0.05
AT32 325.41 0.02
AT33 423.95 0.03
AT34 211.26 0.01
AUS 18109.45 1.12
BE10 2089.21 0.13
BE21 2504.91 0.15
BE22 938.01 0.06
BE23 1288.77 0.08
BE24 1376.92 0.09
BE25 1414.20 0.09
BE31 564.13 0.03
BE32 843.50 0.05
BE33 1045.55 0.06
BE34 221.05 0.01
BE35 445.35 0.03
....

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 21 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting VA in trade flows: other examples

Which part of a country’s total exports is home produced, i.e. is domestic GDP?
icio, exporter(deu) output(dva)
Which part of a country’s total exports can be traced back to other countries
GDP?
icio, exporter(deu) output(fva)
Where the foreign value-added in German exports is produced?
icio, origin(all) exporter(deu) output(fva)
Considering the bilateral exports from Italy to Germany, where the Italian GDP
(domestic VA) re-exported by Germany is absorbed?
icio, exporter(ita) importer(deu) destination(all) output(dva)
How can be obtained the complete breakdown by origin and destination of the
value-added (both domestic and foreign) for Chinese exports to the US?
icio, origin(all) exporter(chn) importer(usa)
destination(all) output(va) save(CHNtoUSA.xls)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 22 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Accounting VA in trade flows: other examples

Which is the Chinese GDP that at any point in time, passes through a certain
bilateral trade flow, say Chinese exports to the US?
icio, exp(chn) imp(usa) persp(bilat) output(dva)
Which is the German GDP potentially exposed to US tariffs on all imports?
icio, origin(deu) imp(usa) persp(importer) output(va)
Which is the German GDP that could be affected by US tariffs on imports in
sector 20?
icio, origin(deu) imp(usa,20) persp(sectimp) output(va)
Which is the exposure of US GDP to a Chinese tariff on US imports in sector 17?
icio, exp(usa,17) imp(chn) persp(sectbil) output(dva)
To what extent are Italian sectors exposed to a shock on German’s exports in
sector 20?
icio, origin(ita,all) exp(deu,20) persp(sectexp) output(va)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 23 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 24 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

New measures with icio

1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 24 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-related exports (Borin Mancini, 2015, 2019)


Natural measure of GVC: “Value of goods and services crossing more
than one border”.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 25 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-related exports (Borin Mancini, 2015, 2019)


Natural measure of GVC: “Value of goods and services crossing more
than one border”.
Traditional exports (non GVC): value of goods and services crossing
just one border, consumed by direct partner (feature of the
exporting-country perspective).

DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 25 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-related exports (Borin Mancini, 2015, 2019)


Natural measure of GVC: “Value of goods and services crossing more
than one border”.
Traditional exports (non GVC): value of goods and services crossing
just one border, consumed by direct partner (feature of the
exporting-country perspective).

DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr

Then we compute the value of production that crosses multiple


borders, i.e. GVC-trade:

G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 25 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-related exports (Borin Mancini, 2015, 2019)


Natural measure of GVC: “Value of goods and services crossing more
than one border”.
Traditional exports (non GVC): value of goods and services crossing
just one border, consumed by direct partner (feature of the
exporting-country perspective).

DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr

Then we compute the value of production that crosses multiple


borders, i.e. GVC-trade:

G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s

Easy to separate backward and forward GVC. More

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 25 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-related exports (Borin Mancini, 2015, 2019)


Natural measure of GVC: “Value of goods and services crossing more
than one border”.
Traditional exports (non GVC): value of goods and services crossing
just one border, consumed by direct partner (feature of the
exporting-country perspective).

DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr

Then we compute the value of production that crosses multiple


borders, i.e. GVC-trade:

G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s

Easy to separate backward and forward GVC. More


Other measures of GVC-exports computed with other frameworks fail
(Koopman et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2013; Aslam et al., 2017). Others
Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 25 / 29
New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC exports: implementation

Step 1: Selection of the export flow:


- icio, exporter(country-code )
- icio, exporter(country-code,sector-code )
- icio, exporter(country-code ) importer(country-code )
- icio, exporter(country-code,sector-code )
importer(country-code )
Step 2: Selection of the output():
- total GVC participation: gvc
- backward GVC participation: gvcb
- forward GVC participation: gvcf

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 26 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Which share of the German exports is related to GVC, i.e. cross more than one
border?
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvc)
Which share of the German exports is related to backward and forward GVC?
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvcb)
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvcf)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 27 / 29


New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

GVC-exports at the global level


Figure O.1 GVC trade grew rapidly in lower trade barriers indu
the 1990s but stagnated after the 2008 production processes be
global financial crisis O.1). GVC growth was
electronics, and transpo
55
specializing in those sect
GVC share of global trade (%) and Western Europe. Mo
50
participate in complex
manufactures and servic
45
activities (map O.1). By
Africa, Latin America, a
40
commodities for further
In recent years, how
35
have slowed (figure O.1).
overall economic growth
30
Another reason is the slo
70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15
of trade reforms. Furthe
19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20
Sources: WDR 2020 team, using data from Eora26 database; Borin and production in the most
Mancini (2019); and Johnson and Noguera (2017). See appendix A for a
has matured. China is p
description of the databases used in this Report.
the United States, a bo
Note: See figure 1.2 in chapter 1 for details. Unless otherwise specified, GVC
Source:
participation measures usedWorld Bank
in this and WDR2020.
subsequent figures throughout the oil imports by one-fourt
Report follow the methodology from Borin and Mancini (2015, 2019). slightly reduced the ince
Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 28 / 29
New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports

Thank you for your attention

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 29 / 29


Perspective Perspective
in line with consistent with
the trade flow more aggregate flows
1. Total exports
1a. Aggregate Exporting country World
1b. Sectoral Sectoral-exporter Exporting country
2. Bilateral exports
2a. Aggregate Bilateral Exporting country
2b. Sectoral Sectoral-bilateral Exporting country
3. Total imports
3a. Aggregate Importer n.a.
3b. Sectoral Sectoral-importer n.a.

Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 1/7


A focus on BM (2015,2019) direct absorption
To trace GVC, find DVA re-exported, i. e. total DVA-DAVAX.
Focus on direct absorption:

G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2/7


A focus on BM (2015,2019) direct absorption
To trace GVC, find DVA re-exported, i. e. total DVA-DAVAX.
Focus on direct absorption:

G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Koopman et al. (2014):


G G
X X
Vs Bss Ysr + Vs Bsr Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2/7


A focus on BM (2015,2019) direct absorption
To trace GVC, find DVA re-exported, i. e. total DVA-DAVAX.
Focus on direct absorption:

G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Koopman et al. (2014):


G G
X X
Vs Bss Ysr + Vs Bsr Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Wang et al. (2013):


G G
X X
Vs Bss Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr Brr Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2/7


A focus on BM (2015,2019) direct absorption
To trace GVC, find DVA re-exported, i. e. total DVA-DAVAX.
Focus on direct absorption:

G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Koopman et al. (2014):


G G
X X
Vs Bss Ysr + Vs Bsr Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Wang et al. (2013):


G G
X X
Vs Bss Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr Brr Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s

Wang et al. (2017, 2018): acknowledge that our approach is the


most appropriate to single out “traditional trade”.
Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 2/7


GVC participation: backward and forward
Consider the exports of country s, Es∗ . Single out GVC backward
and forward participation:
G G
X X
GVCBs = DDCsr + FCsr
r 6=s t6=r

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3/7


GVC participation: backward and forward
Consider the exports of country s, Es∗ . Single out GVC backward
and forward participation:
G G
X X
GVCBs = DDCsr + FCsr
r 6=s t6=r

G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3/7


GVC participation: backward and forward
Consider the exports of country s, Es∗ . Single out GVC backward
and forward participation:
G G
X X
GVCBs = DDCsr + FCsr
r 6=s t6=r

G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s

Remark 1: GVCBs = VSs (Hummels et al. 2001)

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3/7


GVC participation: backward and forward
Consider the exports of country s, Es∗ . Single out GVC backward
and forward participation:
G G
X X
GVCBs = DDCsr + FCsr
r 6=s t6=r

G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s

Remark 1: GVCBs = VSs (Hummels et al. 2001)


Remark 2: GVCFs differs from VS1s ad defined by Koopman et al.
(2014) and Aslam et al. (2017):

G
X
Vs Bsr Er ∗
r 6=s

Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3/7


GVC participation: backward and forward
Consider the exports of country s, Es∗ . Single out GVC backward
and forward participation:
G G
X X
GVCBs = DDCsr + FCsr
r 6=s t6=r

G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s

Remark 1: GVCBs = VSs (Hummels et al. 2001)


Remark 2: GVCFs differs from VS1s ad defined by Koopman et al.
(2014) and Aslam et al. (2017):

G
X
Vs Bsr Er ∗
r 6=s

Not a portion of country s exports (traced in Er ∗ )


Increases with the upstreamness of a country..
Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 3/7


Other measures of GVC-participation

GVC-related output: same logic of GVC-trade, but applied to total


sales (input+VA). Could be relevant to provide a more general
assessment on the GVC role in the entire economic activity.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4/7


Other measures of GVC-participation

GVC-related output: same logic of GVC-trade, but applied to total


sales (input+VA). Could be relevant to provide a more general
assessment on the GVC role in the entire economic activity.
Wang et al. (2017), building on Borin Mancini (2015) logic:
GVC in VA: measure forward GVC participation in GDP.
GVC in final demand: measure backward GVC in final goods
production.

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4/7


Other measures of GVC-participation

GVC-related output: same logic of GVC-trade, but applied to total


sales (input+VA). Could be relevant to provide a more general
assessment on the GVC role in the entire economic activity.
Wang et al. (2017), building on Borin Mancini (2015) logic:
GVC in VA: measure forward GVC participation in GDP.
GVC in final demand: measure backward GVC in final goods
production.
Potential drawback: if a country/sector process intermediates,
without adding a lot of VA, and exports intermediates instead of
final goods, GVC in VA and GVC in final demand are not suited.
Back

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 4/7


GDP embedded in exports?
Country-level perspective

ITALY GERMANY

CHINA

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 5/7


GDP embedded in exports?
Country-level perspective

ITALY GERMANY

CHINA

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 5/7


GDP embedded in exports?
Country-level perspective

ITALY GERMANY

DOUBLE
COUNTED VA

CHINA

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 5/7


GDP affected by a shock on imports of a partner?
Bilateral perspective

ITALY GERMANY

CHINA

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 6/7


GDP affected by a shock on imports of a partner?
Bilateral perspective

ITALY GERMANY

CHINA

Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 6/7


. *Replicate data of WDR2020 Figure 4.9
. icio_load, iciot(eora) year(2015)
Loading table eora 2015... loaded
. icio, exp(chn) imp(usa) persp(bilat) output(va) origin(all) save(wdr_4_9a.xls)
Decomposition of gross exports:
Perspective: bilateral
Origin: ALL
Exporter: CHN
Importer: USA
Output: Value-Added

Millions of $ % of export

AUS 2115.55 0.57


BEL 610.65 0.17
BRA 1046.77 0.28
CAN 955.66 0.26
CHE 977.48 0.27
DEU 4058.78 1.10
FRA 1919.28 0.52
GBR 1604.30 0.44
HKG 1489.18 0.40
IDN 1692.15 0.46
IND 1123.87 0.31
ITA 1564.26 0.42
JPN 7535.08 2.05
KOR 6554.82 1.78
MYS 1604.49 0.44
NLD 748.18 0.20
RUS 2208.83 0.60
SGP 1005.21 0.27
THA 964.69 0.26
USA 5126.99 1.39

Output saved as: wdr_4_9a.xls into the current working directory


Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 7/7

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