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Icio Slides PDF
Icio Slides PDF
icio:
Economic analysis with Inter-Country
Input-Output tables
1
Tor Vergata
2
Bank of Italy
Need new macro data, new methods of analysis and new tools to answer
to old and new questions.
New tools
New tools
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )
Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )
Supply-demand linkages
GDP produced in country s:
G X
X G G
X G X
X G
GDPs = Vs Bsk Ykl = Vs Bsk Yks + Vs Bsk Ykl .
k l k k l6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestically GDP absorbed
absorbed GDP abroad (VAXs )
VA(origin/destination) = VB
b Y.
b
1 GDP:
icio, origin(country-code[,sector-code] )
2 Final demand:
icio, destination(country-code[,sector-code] )
3 VA by origin-destination
icio, origin(country-code[,sector-code] )
destination(country-code[,sector-code] )
. icio_load
Loading table wiod 2014... loaded
. *What is the value-added originated in Germany and absorbed in China?
. icio, origin(deu) destination(chn)
Value-Added by origin/destination:
Origin: DEU
Destination: CHN
Output: Value-Added
Millions of $ % of total
Millions of $ % of total
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
G
X
uN Es∗ = Vs Bss Es∗ + Vt Bts Es∗ .
t6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestic foreign
content (DCs ) content (FCs )
G
X
uN Es∗ = Vs Bss Es∗ + Vt Bts Es∗ .
t6=s
| {z } | {z }
domestic foreign
content (DCs ) content (FCs )
Gross Exports
Gross Exports
Gross Exports
Gross Exports
Value Added
Exports Reflection
(VAX)
Gross Exports
Value Added
Exports Reflection
(VAX)
Directly
absorbed VAX
(DAVAX)
Indirectly
absorbed VAX
New methods
New methods
New methods
. icio, exporter(deu)
Decomposition of gross exports:
Perspective: exporter
Exporter: DEU
Importer: total DEU exports
Millions of $ % of export
Millions of $ % of export
Millions of $ % of export
Millions of $ % of import
Which part of a country’s total exports is home produced, i.e. is domestic GDP?
icio, exporter(deu) output(dva)
Which part of a country’s total exports can be traced back to other countries
GDP?
icio, exporter(deu) output(fva)
Where the foreign value-added in German exports is produced?
icio, origin(all) exporter(deu) output(fva)
Considering the bilateral exports from Italy to Germany, where the Italian GDP
(domestic VA) re-exported by Germany is absorbed?
icio, exporter(ita) importer(deu) destination(all) output(dva)
How can be obtained the complete breakdown by origin and destination of the
value-added (both domestic and foreign) for Chinese exports to the US?
icio, origin(all) exporter(chn) importer(usa)
destination(all) output(va) save(CHNtoUSA.xls)
Which is the Chinese GDP that at any point in time, passes through a certain
bilateral trade flow, say Chinese exports to the US?
icio, exp(chn) imp(usa) persp(bilat) output(dva)
Which is the German GDP potentially exposed to US tariffs on all imports?
icio, origin(deu) imp(usa) persp(importer) output(va)
Which is the German GDP that could be affected by US tariffs on imports in
sector 20?
icio, origin(deu) imp(usa,20) persp(sectimp) output(va)
Which is the exposure of US GDP to a Chinese tariff on US imports in sector 17?
icio, exp(usa,17) imp(chn) persp(sectbil) output(dva)
To what extent are Italian sectors exposed to a shock on German’s exports in
sector 20?
icio, origin(ita,all) exp(deu,20) persp(sectexp) output(va)
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
1 Supply-demand linkages
2 Value-added in trade flows
3 GVC-related exports
DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s
DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s
DAVAXsr = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
G
X
GVCs = uN Esr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s
Which share of the German exports is related to GVC, i.e. cross more than one
border?
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvc)
Which share of the German exports is related to backward and forward GVC?
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvcb)
icio, exporter(deu) output(gvcf)
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
of trade reforms. Furthe
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Sources: WDR 2020 team, using data from Eora26 database; Borin and production in the most
Mancini (2019); and Johnson and Noguera (2017). See appendix A for a
has matured. China is p
description of the databases used in this Report.
the United States, a bo
Note: See figure 1.2 in chapter 1 for details. Unless otherwise specified, GVC
Source:
participation measures usedWorld Bank
in this and WDR2020.
subsequent figures throughout the oil imports by one-fourt
Report follow the methodology from Borin and Mancini (2015, 2019). slightly reduced the ince
Belotti, Borin, Mancini icio NESPUTT2019 28 / 29
New measures for new questions icio setup Supply-demand linkages Value-added in trade flows GVC-related exports
Back
G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s
Back
G
X G
X
DAVAXs = Vs (I − Ass )−1 Ysr + Vs (I − Ass )−1 Asr (I − Arr )−1 Yrr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X
Vs Bsr Er ∗
r 6=s
Back
G
X G
X
GVCFs = DVAsr − DAVAXsr
r 6=s r 6=s
G
X
Vs Bsr Er ∗
r 6=s
ITALY GERMANY
CHINA
ITALY GERMANY
CHINA
ITALY GERMANY
DOUBLE
COUNTED VA
CHINA
ITALY GERMANY
CHINA
ITALY GERMANY
CHINA
Millions of $ % of export