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თემა 10
თემა 10
investiciebis biujetireba
sainvesticio
proeqtebi
konvenciuri arakonvenciuri
damoukidebeli urTierTgamomricxavi
gafarToebadi Canacvlebadi
arsebuli inovaciuri
regulirebadi araregulirebadi
naxazi 5.1. sainvesticio proeqtebis saklasifikacio sqema.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 r = 12% 1 2 3 4 5
10 000
0 r = 8% 1 2 3 4 5
20 000
WACC = Wd x Cd (1 _ t) + Wp x Cp + We x Ce
amocana:
ganvsazRvroT kompaniis kapitalis saSualo Sewonili Rirebuleba
Semdegi mocemulobebis pirobebSi
1
cnobilia aseve, rogorc ukugeba gamoyenebul kapitalze (Return of Capital Employed –
ROCE).
2
cnobilia aseve, rogorc ukugebis ekonomikuri ganakveTi (Economic Rate of Return – ERR).
gamosyidvis periodi (igive amogebis, dabrunebis, sawyisi ukugebis
periodi) warmoadgens drois intervals (wlebis raodenobas), romlis
ganmavlobaSic Semosuli wminda fuladi nakdebi faravs sawyisi
investicias. sxvagvarad igi gviCvenebs, Tu sainvesticio proeqtis
sasicocxlo ciklis ganmavlobaSi ra dro sWirdeba proeqtSi
investirebuli sawyisi kapitaluri xarjebis anazRaurebas momavalSi
gamomuSavebuli fuladi nakadebiT. ufro martivad Tu vityviT, igi
asaxavs drois diapazons, romlis Semdegac daiwyeba mogebis pirveli
erTeulis generireba. SesaZloa kompanias gaaCndes aseve targetirebuli
gamosyidvis periodi, rac warmoadgens drois periods, romlis
,,qvemoTac’’ mas aRar uRirs konkretuli sainvesticio proeqtis
ganxorcieleba.
gamosyidvis periodi aris sainvesticio proeqtebis Sefasebis erT-
erTi yvelaze martivi meTodi, radgan igi ar moiTxovs fuladi nakadebis
diskontirebas. gamosyidvis periodiT aseve zomaven sainvesticio
proeqtis likvidobisa da riskis doneebs. kerZod, rac ufro mcirea
gamosyidvis periodi, miT ufro maRalia, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi,
proeqtis likvidobis done. analogiurad, xangrZlivi gamosyidvis
periodi SeiZleba miuTiTebdes proeqtis riskianobis maRal xarisxs.
gamosyidvis periodi, rogorc proeqtis Sefasebis indikatori, SeiZleba
gamoyenebuli iqnes orgvarad: a) konkretuli sainvesticio proeqtis
mimarT da b) alternatiuli sainvesticio proeqtebis mimarT. pirvel
SemTxvevaSi, gaangariSebuli gamosyidvis periodi unda Seudardes
kompaniis winaswar dadgenil gamosyidvis targetirebul maCvenebels da
Tuki gamosyidvis periodi naklebia masze, aseTi proeqti unda iqnes
miRebuli, xolo Tuki aWarbebs mas, proeqti unda iqnes uaryofili. meore
SemTxvevaSi, misaRebad iTvleba is sainvesticio proeqti, romlis
gamosyidvis periodi aris yvelaze naklebi yvela SesaZlo alternativas
Soris.
gamosyidvis periodi SeiZleba gamoiTvalos orgvarad imaze
damokidebulebis mixedviT, Tu sainvesticio proeqtis sasicocxlo
ciklis ganmavlobaSi samomavlod misaRebi wminda fuladi nakadebi
Tanabaria Tu cvalebadi. Tanabari fuladi nakadebi (Equal Cash Flows), rac
anuiteturi ganawilebis principiT SeiZleba Semoedinebodes biznesSi
sainvesticio aqtiurobidan, SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos gacilebiT
iSviaT SemTxvevebTan, vidre cvalebadi fuladi nakadebis (Unequal Cash
Flows) moZraoba. ganvixiloT gamosyidvis periodis gamoTvlis
Taviseburebani orive SemTxvevisaTvis:
1. Tanabari fuladi nakadebis Semodinebis SemTxvevaSi, sainvesticio
proeqtis gamosyidvis periodi gamoiTvleba sawyisi investiciebis (Initial
Investments) Tanxis SefardebiT yovelwliur wminda fulad nakadTan
sawyisi investicia
I. PB =
yovelwliuri wminda fuladi nakadi
amocana 1:
amocana 2:
15 000
PB2 = 3 + = 3.3 weli
55 000
B
DPB = A +
C
sadac, A aris uaryofiTi diskontirebuli kumulaciuri nakadis bolo weli;
amocana:
B 9 090
DPB = A + = 4 + = 4.5 weli
C 17 010
rogorc magaliTidan Cans, diskontirebuli gamosyidvis periodis
gaangariSebis meqanizmi gamosyidvis periodis gamoTvlis analogiuria.
ubralod, unda movaxdinoT Semomavali wminda fuladi nakadebis
diskontireba 12%-iani diskontirebis ganakveTis mixedviT TiToeuli
wlisaTvis, anu sxvagvarad, unda ganvsazRvroT TiToeuli Semomavali
fuladi nakadis mimdinare Rirebuleba. simartivisaTvis, SeiZleba
gamoviyenoT e.w. mimdinare Rirebulebis cxrili. magaliTad, me-3
wlisaTvis wminda fuladi nakadi Seadgens 80 000 lars. mimdinare
Rirebulebis cxrilSi unda movZebnoT Sesabamisi diskontirebis faqtori
3 wlisa da 12%-is gadakveTis arealSi da fuladi nakadis maCvenebeli
gavamravloT am ricxvze, anu 80 000 x 0.712 = 56 960. gasaTvaliswinebelia
is, rom sawyisi investiciis Tanxis diskontireba ar xdeba arasdros,
radgan es fuladi nakadi miekuTvneba nulovan wels, anu ,,aTvlis
wertils’’, romlis mimarTac xdeba yvela Semdgomi fuladi nakadis
diskontireba. magaliTis mixedviT, kompanias gansazRvruli hqonda
misaRebi, igive maqsimalurad dasaSvebi gamosyidvis periodi 3 weli,
Sesabamisad, miRebuli diskontirebuli gamosyidvis periodi 4.5 weli ar
iqneba misTvis misaRebi maCvenebeli.
mTliani mogeba
I. ARR / ROCE = x 100%
sawyisi investicia
saSualo wliuri mogeba
II. ARR / ROCE = x 100%
sawyisi investicia
amocana 1:
(150 000 + 120 000 + 100 000 + 80 000 + 60 000) / 5 _ 90 000 = 32 000
lari
amocana 2:
danadgari I danadgari II
mogeba (cveTamde)
danadgari I danadgari II
saSualo investicia:
ARR / ROCE2 :
r – diskontirebis ganakveTi
wminda
mimdinare
Rirebuleba
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
amocana:
0 r = 10% 1 2 3 4 5
_ 1 000 000 100 000 300 000 500 000 200 000 100
000
90 900
247 800
375 500
136 600
62 100
r – diskontirebis ganakveTi
amocana 1:
zemoT mocemuli wminda mimdinare Rirebulebis gamoTvlis amocanis
pirobebis mixedviT, gamoviangariSoT proeqtis momgebianobis indeqsi da
gavakeToT Sesabamisi daskva.
gamavali wminda
Semomavali Semomavali
fuladi nakadi -
wminda fuladi diskontirebuli kombinirebuli
weli sawyisi
nakadebi wminda fuladi fuladi nakadebi
investicia
(lari) nakadebi (lari)
(lari)
0 _ 1 000 000 - - _ 1 000 000
1 - 100 000 90 900
2 - 300 000 247 800
3 - 500 000 375 500
4 - 200 000 136 600
5 - 100 000 62 100
912 900 912 900
_ 1 000 000 +
NNPV
912 900 = _ 87 100
912 900 / 1 000 000 =
PPI
0.9
amocana 2:
amocana 1:
amocana 2:
1 000 II
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50
amocana:
0 r = 8% 1 2 3 4 5
_ 700 000 200 000 300 000 _ 150 000 250 000 400 000
272 000
378 000
FV 1 1 PV
PV = = FV ; =
n n n
(1 + r) (1 + r) (1 + r) FV
1 1
NPV = NPV (n) 1+ +
(1 + r)n (1 + r)m-n
amocana:
1 1
NPVI = 3 270 1+ + = 8 206 lari;
(1 + 0.10)2 (1 + 0.10)4
1 1
NPVII = 5 320 1+ + = 13 314 lari
(1 + 0.10)3 (1 + 0.10)3