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  • Regression and Model

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    Dr. Patrick Cerna
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    The document describes the methodology used to forecast graduate school enrollment at Central Philippines State University-Moises Padilla Campus. Data on enrollment from 2016-2023 by semester will be collected from the registrar's office. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) regression model will be used to analyze the time series enrollment data and predict future enrollment. The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function will be used to verify the appropriate ARIMA model.

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    Regression and model

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    Regression and model

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    The document describes the methodology used to forecast graduate school enrollment at Central Philippines State University-Moises Padilla Campus. Data on enrollment from 2016-2023 by semester will be collected from the registrar's office. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) regression model will be used to analyze the time series enrollment data and predict future enrollment. The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function will be used to verify the appropriate ARIMA model.

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    6 views1 page

    Regression and Model

    Uploaded by

    Dr. Patrick Cerna
    The document describes the methodology used to forecast graduate school enrollment at Central Philippines State University-Moises Padilla Campus. Data on enrollment from 2016-2023 by semester will be collected from the registrar's office. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) regression model will be used to analyze the time series enrollment data and predict future enrollment. The autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function will be used to verify the appropriate ARIMA model.

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    of 1

    I.

    METHODOLOGY
    A. Datasets
    Enrolment starting from the academic year 2016-2017 until 2022-2023 will be considered as the datasets for the
    study. Academic year by semester and total number of enrolees will be considered as the attributes to be collected.
    Datasets were collected from the Office of the Graduate School Registrar of Central Philippines State University-
    Moises Padilla Campus.

    B. Regression Model
    To forecast the enrolment for the next succeeding years of the Graduate School, a statistical regression technique
    called the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model will be used to break down and predict time
    series data. Generally, the following equation gives the ARIMA model:

    

    where the backshift operator is denoted by B, the time index is represented by t, for autoregressive (AR)
    parameter, moving average (MA), and w t for d value in the ARIMA (p,d,q) model, and white noise are
    denoted by a t [15].

    C. ACF and PACF verification

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