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Total Probability Theorem

The total probability theorem states that the probability of an event E occurring can be calculated as the sum of the probabilities of E intersecting with mutually exclusive and exhaustive events E1, E2, E3, etc. It defines the probability of E as the total probability over all possible outcomes. The examples provided are word problems applying this theorem to calculate probabilities based on the conditions and probabilities provided.

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Kris
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249 views2 pages

Total Probability Theorem

The total probability theorem states that the probability of an event E occurring can be calculated as the sum of the probabilities of E intersecting with mutually exclusive and exhaustive events E1, E2, E3, etc. It defines the probability of E as the total probability over all possible outcomes. The examples provided are word problems applying this theorem to calculate probabilities based on the conditions and probabilities provided.

Uploaded by

Kris
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM

Let E1, E2, E3, …. , En be n Mutually Exclusive AND Exhaustive Events. Let E also be defined in the
same sample space. Then,

P(E) = P(E∩E1) + P(E∩E2) + P(E∩E3) +……. P(E∩En)

i.e.,
n

𝐏(𝐄) = ∑ P(E∩Ek )
k=0
Q.1

3 boxes A, B, C are there such that

A contains 3 Red Balls and 7 Black Balls

B contains 4 Red Balls and 6 Black Balls

C contains 5 Red Balls and 5 Black Balls

Now, a die is rolled and if the outcome is less than 2 then 1 ball from A is selected and if the outcome
is 2, 3, 4 then 1 ball from B is selected and otherwise 1 ball from C is selected.

Then, find the probability that the selected ball is RED.

Q.2

A goes from home to office using Train, Bus or Auto with respective probabilities of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2.
If she uses train, then the probability that she will be late to office is 0.2 and the corresponding
probabilities for Bus and Auto are 0.7 and 0.2. Now find the probability that she will BE IN office on
time.

Q.3

Let a student attempt a MCQ (with 4 options) with more than 1 or 1 correct answer. He either knows
the answer OR copies it OR makes a guess with respective probabilities as 0.3, 0.5 & 0.2. Also the
probability that his answer is correct IF he copies is ½. Now, it was found that his answer is correct.
Find the probability that he KNEW the answer.
Q.4

Let a bag contain 5 Normal coins and 7 Biased coins with probability of getting H as 2/3. Now a coin
is selected at random and is tossed and it shows H.

Now what is the probability that if it is again tossed, it will show H ?


Very Quickly, to summarize:

1. Let's say, one event E is there which


can happen through multiple paths.

To calculate the probability that this


event happens is called TPT

2. If we are told that this event E has


happened. To find the probability of
through which path this event has
happened is called BAYE'S Theorem.

3. Now, if an experiment is performed


and we are told that this is the
outcome. And we conduct a next
experiment. Of course, this should be
connected with the previous
experiment.

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