Probability Theory 1.

19

problem and (ii) the problem is solved. (MU- Nov. 96)

75. A and B alternately cut a ·pack of cards and the pack is shuffled after ~ach
cut. lfA starts and the game is continued until one cuts a diamond, what is
the c~ance that A wins at his second cut? .
76. PlayersX and Y roll a pair of dice alternately. The player who rolls 11 first
wins. If X starts, fin.d his chance of winning. ·
77. Three persons A, B and C draw in succession from a bag containing 8 red
' I
and 4 white balls until a white ball is drawn. What 'is the probability that C
draws the white ball?

Theorem of Total
. -
Probability )
If B 1, B 2, ... , Bn be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events, and A is
another event asso.c iated with (or caused by) Bi, then .
l,

n
P(A) = L P(B) P(AIB) /.
i=I .• ,,., .r

' l I

.I
I

Proof . B
The inner circle represents the eventA . A call' decur
. along
, with (or due to) B 1, 2,

at are exhaustive and mutually exclusiv_e. ·. .

... , Bn th AB are also mutually exclusive, s~ch that
:. AB 1, AB2, . · ., n
A =AB1 +AB2 + ... +ABn ,
. AB) · ' ' ....
.. P(A) := PCL i ' . ' AB are mutually exclusive)
= 1: P(ABi) (s~nce !1B1, AB2, · · ., n (by addition theorem)

n
= L P(B;) X P(AIB)
i =I

Theorem · Theorem of
or
Saye s
b·rty of Causes
Proba I I . . e and mutually exclusive events associated
If B1, B2, ... , Bn be a _set o~ ex:~;:1:nother event associated with (or caused by)
with a random expenmen an
B- then )
,, P(B;) x P(A! B; i = 1, 2, ... , n
P(BJA) = II '

L P(B;) X P(AIB;)
i=l
 1.20 Probability, Statistics and Random Processes

Proof
P(B; n = P(B;) x P(AIB;) = P(A) x P(B/A)
A)
P(B./A) = P(B;) x P(AIB;)
I P(A)
P(B;) x P(AIB;)
= -----'--'--------, i= 1, 2, 3, ... , n
L P(B;)
II

X P(AIB;)
i=I

[ W orked Example 1(B) ]

- - - - - - - - - - - Example 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - -
A bolt is manufactured by 3 machines A, B and C. A turns out twice as many
items as B, and machines Band C produce equal number of items. 2% of bolts
produced by A and B are defective and 4% of bolts produced by Care defective.
All bolts are put into 1 stock pile and 1 is chosen from this pile. What is the
probability that it is defective?
Let A = the event in which the item has ~een produced by machine A, and so on.
Let D = the event of the item being defective.
P(A) l, P(B) = P(C) = _!_
2 4
P(DIA) = P(an item is defective, given that A has produced it)
= 2_ = P(DIB)
100 '
P(DIC) = l~
By theorem of total probability,
P(D) = P(A) x P(DIA) + P(B) x P(DIB) + P(C) x P(DIC)
= lx2-+lx2-+lx_i_
2 100 4 100 4 100
1
= 40

- - - - - - - - - - Example 2 - - - - - - - - - -
An um contains 10 white and 3 black balls. Another um contains 3 white and
5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the first um and placed in the
second urn and then 1 ball is taken at random from the latter. What is the prob-
ability that it is a white ball?
The two balls transferred may be both white or both black or 1 white and 1
black.
 Probability Theory 1.21

Le~ B 1 = event 'o f draw~ng 2 white balls 'from the first' um, B = event of
2
drawi~g 2 black balls from 1t and B 3 = event of drawing 1 white and 1 black ball
from 1t. ·
Clearly B 1, B2 and·B3 are exh austive
· and mutually exclusive' '
events.
Let A= event of drawing a white.ball fro1m the second um after transfer.

P(B1) = lOCz =~ ;.P(B2) = 3Cz _1; P(B ·;

3
= 10 x 3 = 1..Q_
13Cz 26 13~2 26 13C 26'
'" 2
P(AIB1) = P(drawing a white ball/2 white balls have been transferred)
= P(drawing a white.ball/um II.contains 5. white and 5 black balls)
5 '
=, -
10' r,

Similarly, P(NB 2) = ]_ and P(A/B 3) = __±__

10 lO
By theorem of total probability, . · · 1 -

P(A) == P(B 1) x P(AIB 1) + P(B 2) x P(A!B 2) + P(B3 ) x P(AIB 3)

15 5 1 3 10 4
=-x-+-x-+-x-
26 10 26 10 26 10
. 59 ' I s {

130

~x~mple 3 - - - - - - - - -
f •' • •••I ,. •

hi a coin tossing experiment, if the coin'shows head, 1 die is thrown and the result
is recbra'ed. ,But if the coin ·shows 'tail, i2 dic'e are thrown and their sum is re-
corded. What is the probability that the rec'orded:number will be 2? .- .

!.
(BDU -· Apr.. 96)
When a single die is thrown, R(2) = 1• • , ; • ·1 ,,

When 2 dice are thrown, ,the sum will be 2, only if each die shows 1.
. ,_ 1· 1 , (1 c'· d. d )
.·. P(getting 2 as sum with 2 dice) = x = smce m epen ence
1 •

I
6 6 36
By theorem of total probability, ' ; ti

P(2) = P_(}f) '1 P(2/H) + P(T) x P(2/T)

1 1 1 1
= -x-+-x-
2 6 2 36
7
72

- - - - - - - - - Example 4
A bag contains 5 balls and it is not known how many of them are white. Two
balls are drawn at random from the bag and they are noted to be white. What is
the chance that all the balls in the bag are white?
1 22 Probability, Statistics and Random Processe.l
..-:-------___:_:....:,...:..--=-=--:. . -: :. .:. --- -- - - - - - -- - - - - - -
Since, 2 white bails have been drawn out, the _b<1~ must have contained 2, 3, 4
or 5 white balls. . ·
Let B, = Event of the bag containing 2 white balls, B2 = Events of the ha
containing 3 whit~ balls, B = Event of .the bag containing 4 white balls an~
3
B = Event of the bag containing 5 white balls. . , ,
4
Let A = Event of drawing 2 white balls.
P(AIB) = 2C2 ==-1 P(AIB)
2 = 3C2 == _l_
1 5C lO ' 5 C2 10
2
4C · 3 sc ·
P(A/B ) = __L==-, P(AIB4 ) = __L = 1
35C2 5 5C2
Since the number of white balls in the bag is not known B/ s are equally
.
P(B1) =P(B 2) = P(B3 ) = P(B4 ) = -J_
4
By Baye's theorem, , ,

. . , . t•
Example 5
1 I . • , ;, ' •
1: I '

There .are .3 true corns.and

·· 1 false coin with 'head'
,
b . •
at random and tosseit 4 times. If 'head' . on oth_ sides. A coin is chosen
ability that the false coin has been ch ,.o~cm;s all the 4 tJ.mes, what is the prob-
osen and used? •

P(D = P(the coin is a true·coin) =·_l

' 4
I ,

~(F'/ ,= P(the coin is ~-false coin) = _!_

LetA-E 1
4
- vent of getting all heads · in 4 tosses
•

Then P(AID = _!_ x _!_ . 1 1 1

By Baye's th 2 2 x x = 2 2 16
and P(A!F)' = I°
eorem, ·

P(FIA) = P(F) x P(AI F)

P(F) x P(AI F) + P(T)
l x P(AIT)
-xl
= 1 4 _ 16
3 1 --
-xl+-x
4 4 19 16
 Probability Theory 1.23

Example 6 - - - - - - - -
:~r _a cert~n binary, communication channel, the probability that a transmitted
0. 18 rece~v~~ as a '0' is 0.95 and the probability that a transmitted '1' is re-
ceived _a~ is ~.90. If _the probability that a 'O' is transmitted is 0.4, find the
probabi~ty that (1) a '1' 1s received and (ii) a 1' was transmitted given that a '1'
was received. ·, ·

Let A = the event of transmitting '1 ', A = the event of transmitting' 'O' B =
1 ' ' '
the event of receiving '1' and, , B =;= the event o~ !eceiving '0'.
Given: P( A) = 0.4, P(BIA) = 0.9 and P( BI A) = 0.95
P(A) = 0.6 and P( Bl A) = 0.05 ·
By the theorem of total probability
P(B) = P(A) P(
P(BIA) + A) x P_( Bl A)
= 0.6 X 0.9 + 0.4 X 0.05
= 0.56
By Baye' s theorem, .,

P(AIB; = P(A) x P(BI A) ,~ o.6' x o.9 = 27

P(B) 0.56 28

.,

Part A (Short answer questions) · ·

1. State the theorem of total probability.
1
2. B,a g 'i c?ntains 2' red _and 1 black balls ) nd bag~ II c~rttains 3 red and 2
black balls. What is the probability ,that a ball drawn from one of the bags
f"" • '1,
is red?
3. ·state 1B.aye'~ th~orem on invers'e probaoility. . J '. ,
4. Bag·I contains white and 3 bla,~k balls an~ bag II ~o!ltai~s 4 whfte and 1
black balls. A ball chosen at random from one of the bags 1s white. What is
' ·~lie pro~ability t~at it ~~me ~rom ba~ I? 1 , _1 · :, .
5. Five men out of 100 and 25 women out of 1000 are colour-blind. A colour-
blind person is chosen at rand<;>~- What i~ t~.e probability that the person is
a male? (Assume ~ales and females it.re in equ_al numbers). ·
Part B
6. There are 2 bags one of which contains 5 red and 8 black balls and the
other 7 red and 10 black balls. A ball is drawn from one or the other of the
2 bags. Find the chance of drawing a red ball.
7. In a bolt factory, machines A, Band C produce 25, 35 and 40% of the total
output, respectively. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2%, respectively, are
defective bolts. If a bolt is chosen at random from the combined output,
 1.24 Probability, Statistics and Random Processes

what is the probability that it is defective? If a bolt chosen at r~do

is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was produced b:
B or C? . (M~ - Apr,. 96)
8. A box contains 2000 components of whic}J. 5%, are defe~tI,v~. A second
-box contains 500 components of which 40% are defective. Two othe
. r
boxes contain 1000 components, eac)l with 10% de1ec~1ve components
We select at random one of the above boxes and remove from it at ra1'do~
a single component.
(a) What is the probability that the comp~nent is defective?
(b) Finding that the selected component is defective, what is the
probability that it was drawn from box 2? (MSU - Apr. 96)
9. There are 4 candidates for the office of the highway commissioner; the
respective probabilities that they will be selected are 0.3, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.1,
and the probabilities for a project's approval are 0.35, 0.85, 0.45 and 0.15,
depending on which of the 4 candidat~,s i~ selected. What is l he probability
of the project getting approved? · · (MKU -Apr. 97)
1
10. In a binary communication system a '0' or '1' is transmitted. Because of
noise in the system, a '0', can be received as a '1' with probability panda
'1' can be received as a '0' also with probability p. Assuming that th~
probability that a '0'is transqiitted
I
is p 0 , and that a '1' is transmitted is q0
(= 1 - p 0 ) find the probabi~~ty that a '1' was transmitted when a 'I' is
received.
11. A bag contains 7 red and 3 black marbles, and another bag contains 4 red
and 5 black marbles. One marble is transferred from the first bag into the
second bag and then a marble is taken out of the second bag at random. If
this marble happens to be ·red, find the probability that black marble was
transferred.
12. The probability that a sµident passes a certain exa,m is Q._9, given that he
stud)ed. The probability that he pass.es' the exam without studying is 0.2.
Assume that the probability that the stude'nt studies for an exam is 0.75.
Given that the student p~sed the exam, what is , the probability that he
studied? , I j, Ii

13. Um I has 2 white and 3 black balls, um II has 4 ,white and 1 bla,ck balls
and um III has 3 white and 4 bl~ck balls. An ur.n is selec,ted at rand~m and
a ball dr/iwn at .randolll is fom:,id to be white.' Find the pi;obability th~t um I
was ·s,elected, , ' · (MKU - Apr. 96)
14. Suppose tl;tat coloured balls are distribu.ted in Jboxes as follows:
' t ' ,
Box 1 Box2 Box3
Red 2 4 3
White 3 1 4
Blue
----~------------
5 3 5
,, .
A box is selected at r~dom ftom which a ball is ~~lected at ·random and it
is observed-to be red. What is the probability that box 3 was selected?
(MU - Nov. 96)

A
 Probaqility Theory 1.25
15.
Three urns contain 3 white, 1 red and 1 black balls: 2 white 3 red and 4
black balls; 1 white, 3 red and 2 black· balls ;espectiv~ly. One ~mis chosen
at random and from it 2 balls are drawn at random. If tliey are found to be
1 red and 1 bl_ack ball, what is the probability that the first um was chosen?
16.
An um contams 10 red and 3 black balls. Another um con(ains 3 red and 5
black balls. Two balls are transferred from the first urb to the second um,
without noticing their colour. One ball is now drawn from the second um
and it is fo~pd,to,be red. What is the probability,that 1 red and 1 black ball
were transferred? ' ·
17.
Box 1 contains 1000 bulbs of which 10% are defective. Box 2 contains
2000 bulbs of which 5% are d½fective. rwo . bulbs are drawn (without
replace'mertt) from a randomly selected b~x. (i) Firid tpe_probability iliat
both bulbs are defective and (ii) assuming that both are defective, find ~he
probability that they came from box 1. ' · '. ,
!'8. The chance that a doctor A will diagno"se a diseasex cdrrectly-is 60%. The
chance that a patient will die by his treatment after correct di_agnosis is
40% and the chance of death by wrong diagnosis is 70%. A patie_nt of
doctor A, who had disease x, died. What is the chance that his disease wa~
diagnosed correctly? , . . , , • •

19. The chances of A, B and C becoming the general manager of a certam

1

company are in the ratio 4:2:3. The prob~bilities that th~ bonus scheme
will be introduced in the company if A1, B and C become gene~al1
m(\Dager
are 0.3, 0.7 and 0.8 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been mtt:o~-u~ed,
what is the probability that A has been appointed as general manager.
 ..JJ

Exercise 1(B)
- P (red ball) = P (red ball from bag I) + P (red ball frorn bag II)
2
_ 1 2 1 3 19
--x-+-x-===-
2 3 2 5 30
1
4. P(B /W) = P(B1)
x P(W/B ) -
1 P(Bi) x P(WI B1) + P(B2 ) x P(W I Jh)

1 2
-x-
2 5 1
1 2 1 4 :::-
2" s+2"s 3

5. P(M) =P(F) = 21; P(BIM) = _!_.

20 '' P(BIF) -- 1
-40

1 1
2
By Baye's theorem, P(MIB) = 1 2x 20
-x 1 . , l '· 1
--
3
2 20+2x40

88
6.
221
69 (11"") -44
7. (i)
2000 69
8
8. (i) (ii)
80 13
9. 0.47
10. (I-p)qo
(I - p)qo + PPo
 r robability Theory- 1.35

12
11.
47
27
12. -
29
14
13.
57
14. 2_
19
3
15.
25
20
16.
59
17. (i) 0.0062 · (ii) 0.8005
18.
. 13
6
19.
25