CLASS:XII SUBJECT: MATHS TOPIC: PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
1. Probability: Probability is a branch of mathematics in which
the chance of an event happening is assigned a numerical value
that predicts how likely that events is to occur.
2. Outcomes : An outcome is a result of source activity or
experiment.
3. Sample space : A sample space is a set of all possible outcomes
for a random experiment.
4. Event : An event is a subset of the sample space
5. Theoretical Probability :- The theoretical probability of an
event is the number of ways that the event can occur, divided
by the total number of possibilities in the sample space.
n( E )
Symbolically, P( E )  , 0  P(E) 1
n( S )
6. Theorems of Probability :-
(A) Addition theorem :
(i) when the events are not mutually exclusive : The
probability that at least one of the two events A and B which
are not mutually exclusive will occur is P (AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
– P(AB).
(ii) when A and B are mutually exclusive:
then n(AB) = 0 and P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

(B) Multiplication Theorem :- If two events A and B are

independent the probability that they both will occur is equal
to the product of their individual probabilities.
P (AB) = P(A) × P(B)
P(ABC) = P(A) . P(B) . P(C) (for 3 events)
9. A rule for the probability of the event not A :

P(A) + P(not A) = 1  P(A) + P A = 1

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 Or, P(A) = 1 - P A
Or, P A = 1 – P(A)
10. Problems, related to withdrawal of balls, cards, letters etc
with replacement and without replacement.
In such type of problems, the sample space will not change when
the articles are replaced after each withdrawal

Note : (i) If the problem does not specifically mention ‘with

replacement’ or without replacement ask yourself. “Is this
problem with or without replacement?
(ii) For many compound events, the probability can be
determined most easily by using the counting principle i.e.
permutations and combinations.
(iii) Every probability problem can always be solved by
 Counting the number of elements in the sample space =n (s)
 Counting the number of outcomes in the events n(E).
and substituting these numbers in the probability formula;
n( E )
P(E) =
n( S )
(iv) The number of ways in which r objects can be taken out of
n
n n n
objects is Cr, or Cr =
(n  r ) r
Taking out 2 or more objects (e.g. balls) randomly from a bag
one by one without replacement is same as taking out 2 or more
objects simultaneously.
11. Conditional Probability :- If A and B are two events
associated with the same random experiment then the probability
of occurrence of event A when the event B has already occurred
is called conditional probability of A when B is given.
It is represented by P(A/B)

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 n( A  B )
P(A/B) = P(event A when B has already occurred) 
n( B )
P( A  B)
∴P(A/B)  (Dividing Nr and Dr by n(s) )
P( B)
P( A  B)
Similarly, P(B/A) 
P( A)
Theorem of Total Probability
Let E1, E2, …………… En be the events of a sample space ‘S’ such that
they are pair wise disjoint, exhaustive and have non-zero
probability. If A is any event associated with S, then
𝑛
𝐴
𝑃 (𝐴) = ∑ 𝑃 ( ) . 𝑃(𝐸𝑖 )
𝐸𝑖
𝑖=1
12. Baye’s Theorem :-
If B1, B2, B3, ……. Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events and A is any event that occurs with B1, or B2 or B3 or
………. or Bn, then
P ( Bi ). P ( A / Bi )
P(Bi/A) = n
, where i = 1, 2, 3, ……. n
 P( Bi ) . P( A / Bi )
i 1

13. Random Variable : Random variable is simply a variable whose

values are determined by the outcome of a random experiment;
generally it is denoted as X, Y, Z etc and their values are
denoted by the corresponding small letter as x, y, z etc.

14. Probability distribution :- The system consisting of a random

variable x along with P(x) is called the probability
distribution of X.

15. Mean and Variance :

Let a random variable X assume values X 1, X2, X3, ……….. Xn with
probability p1, p2, p3 ………. pn respectively, such that pi  0,
n

 p 1
i 1
i

Then, the mean of x, denoted by  (or E(x)) is defined as

n

 = E(x) = x pi 1
i i and

Variance denoted by  2,
n n

 2 =  ( xi   ) pi  x pi  
2 2 2
= i
i 1 i 1

16. Standard Deviation :  = var iance

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 S.No. Important results

1 P(AB) = P(A) . P(B/A), where A & B are any two events

2 P(AB) = P(A) . P(B/A), where A & B are any two events

3 If A and B are independent events then P(AB) = P(A) .

P(B)

4 P( A B) = P(B) – P(AB), where A & B are independent

events.

5 P(A B ) = P(A) – P(AB), where A & B are independent

events

6 P( A  B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 – P(AB) = P( A ) x P( B )

Where A and B are mutually exclusive events

7 P( A  B) P( B)  P( A  B)
P( A /B) =  , where A and B are
P( B) P( B)
independent events and P(B)  0

8 P A  B 
P( B / A) =
P( A)

Model Answer
2 1 1
Q1. If P(A) = , P(B) = , P A  B   then find PA / B .
5 3 5
Solution: Given, P(A)=2/5, P(B)=1/3, P(A  B)=1/5

P(A’)=3/5, P(B’)=2/3,
P(A  B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A  B)=8/15.
P(A  B)’=P(A’  B’)=1-8/15=7/15.
P( A' B' ) 7 / 15 7
Hence, P(A’/B’)=  
P( B' ) 2 / 3 10

Q2: A problem in Mathematics is given to 3 students whose chances of

solving it are
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 ½ , 1/3 , ¼ . What is the probability that the problem is
solved?
Solution: 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴̅)𝑃(𝐵̅ )𝑃 (𝐶̅ )
= 1- [1- ½ ][1- 1/3 ] [1-
¼ ]
= 1 – (½)(2/3)(3/4)
= 1- ¼ = ¾

Q3: Let 𝑥 denote the number of hours you study during a randomly
selected school day. The probability that 𝑥 can take the value has
the following form, where k is some unknown constant.

0.1, if x  0
kx, if x  1or 2

P x  K   
k 5  x , if x  3 or 4
0 otherwise
(a) Find the value of k
(b) What is probability that you study at least 2 hours
(c) Exactly two hours
(d) At most two hours
Solution: X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 0.1 k 2k 2k k

(a)  P( X )  0.1  k  2k  2k  k  1
6k = 1 – 0.1 = 0.9
So, k = 0.9/6 = 0.15
(b) P(study at least two hours)=
P( X 2)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)  P( X  4)
(c) P(study exactly 2 hours)= P(X=2)= 2k = 2x0.15 = 0.3
(d) P(Study at most two hours) =
P( X 2)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
= 0.1+k+2k = 0.1+3k = 0.1 + 0.45 = 0.55
Assertion reason based questions:
In the following question, a statement of assertion (A) is followed
by a statement of Reason (R). Choose the correct answer out of the
following choices.

(a) Both A and R are true and R is the correct explanation of A.

(b) Both A and R are true but R is not the correct explanation of A.

(c) A is true but R is false.

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(d) A is false but R is true.

Q4.Assertion (A): If A and B are two mutually exclusive events with

P(A’)=5/6 and P(B)=1/3. Then P(A/B’) is equal to 1/4.
Reason (R ): If A and B are two events such that P(A)=0.2, P(B)=0.6
and P(A/B)=0.2 then the value of P(A/B’) is 0.2.
Ans: (b)

ASSIGNMENT QUESTIONS
SECTION A:
Q1. A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at
random without
replacement. The probability of getting exactly one red ball
is
45 135 15 15
𝑎) 𝑏) 𝑐) 𝑑)
196 392 56 29
Q2. Two dice are thrown. Find the probability of getting an even
number on first
die, if the outcomes on the two dice always exhibits a sum of
8.
1 2 3 4
a) 𝑏) 𝑐) 𝑑)
5 5 5 5
Q3. There are 30 tickets bearing numbers from 1 to 30. One ticket is
drawn at
random. Find the probability that the number on it is a
multiple of 5 or 6.
1 2
a) b) 𝑐)1 𝑑)0
3 3
Q4. Three events A,B and C have probabilities 2/5 , 1/3 and ½ ,
1
respectively. If 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ) = then find P(A’∩ 𝐶′)
5
2 7 1 3
a) 𝑏) 𝑐) d)
5 10 5 10
Q5. Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a
pack of
52 playing cards. Find the probability that both the cards
are red.
25 26
a) 𝑏) ×2 𝑐) 1 𝑑)0
102 102
Q6. What is the probability of an even prime number on each die,
when a pair of
dies is rolled.
a) ¼ b) ½ c) 1
d) 1/36
Q7. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the number appearing is
observed to be 7.

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 What is the conditional probability that the number 2 has
appeared at least once?
1
𝑎) b) 1/3 c) ¼
2
d) none
Q8. A die is tossed 180 times. Find the expected number of times
the face with the
number 5 will appear.
𝑎) 10 𝑏) 20 𝑐) 30 𝑑)40
Q9. If eight coins are tossed together, then find the probability of
getting exactly 3
heads.
7 7 1
a) b) 𝑐) 𝑑) 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒
32 8 8
Q10. The probabilities of two students A and B coming to the school
3 5
in time are 𝑎𝑛𝑑 , respectively. Assuming that the events A
7 7
and B coming in time are
Independent, find the probability of only one of them coming
to school in time.
15 2 26
a) 𝑏) 𝑐) 0 d)
49 7 49

SECTION: B
Q11. Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box, mixed up
thoroughly and
then one card is drawn randomly. If it is known that the
number on the card
is more than 3, what is the probability that it is an even
number?
Q12. A die is thrown three times. Events A and B are defined as
below:
A: 4 on the third throw B: 6 on the first and 5 on the
second throw.
Find the probability of A, given that B has already occurred.
Q13. Given that the events A and B are such that P(A) = ½, P(A B)=
3/5 and
P(B) = p. Find `p’ if they are :
(i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent
Q14. One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards so that each card is
equally likely
to be selected. Prove that the following cases are
independent:
(a) A : “ The card drawn is spade” B: “ The card drawn is
an ace”
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 (b) A : “ The card drawn is black” B: “ The card drawn is
a king”
Q15. The probability of student A passing an examination is 2/9 and
of student
B passing is 5/9. Assuming the two events: ‘A passes’, ‘B
passes’
as independent. Find the probability of :
(i) Only A passing the examination.
(ii) Only one of them is passing the examination.
Q16. A bag contains 3 red, 4 black and 2 green balls. Two balls are
drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability that both
balls are of different colors.
Q17. A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn
at random
without replacement. Determine the probability of getting
both balls black.
Q18. A bag contains 30 tickets, numbered from 1 to 30. Five tickets
are drawn
at random and arranged in ascending order. Find the
probability that the
third number is 20.
Q19. Three bags contain 7 white 8 red, 9 white 6 red and 5 white 7
red
balls respectively. One ball, at random, is drawn from each
bag.
Find the probability that all of them are of the same
color.
Q20. A and B toss a coin alternately till one of them tosses a head
and wins the game.
If A starts the game, find their respective probabilities
of winning.
Q21. A bag A contains 6 white and 7 black balls. Another bag B
contains 4 white and 5 black balls. A ball is transferred from bag
A to the bag B. Then a ball is drawn from bag B. Find the
probability that it will be white.
Q22. A problem in Mathematics is given to three students whose
chances of solving
it are ½, 1/3, ¼. What is the probability in the following
cases?
(i) That the problem is solved
(ii) Only one of them solves it correctly
(iii) At least one of them may solve it.
Q23. A car manufacturing company has two plants. Plant P
manufactures 70% of cars and Plant Q 30%. At plant P 80% of the
cars are rated as of standard quality and at plant Q 90% of the
cars are rated as of standard quality. A car is chosen at random
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and is found to be of standard quality. What are the chances
that it has come from plant P?
Q24. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of four times. He throws a
die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is
actually a six.
Q25. A box B1 contains one red and one white marble and a box B2
contains 3 red
and one white marble. A box is selected by a toss of a
fair coin and one marble
is drawn at random from the box selected. Given that a red
marble is obtained,
what is the probability that the marble was drawn from box
B1.
Q26. An urn contains 5 balls. Two balls are drawn and are found to
be white.
What is the probability that all the balls are white?

Q27. In an office three clerks process incoming copies of a certain

form the
first clerk A, processes 40% of the forms, the second
clerk B, 35% and
the third clerk C, processes 25%. The first clerk has an
error rate of 0.04 %,
the second clerk has an error rate of 0.06% and the third
clerk has an error
rate of 0.03 %. A form selected at random from a day’s
output is found to
have an error. The supervisor wishes to know the
probability that it
was processed by the second clerk B.
Q28. Suppose 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey-
haired person
is selected at random. What is the probability of this
person being male?
Assume that there are equal number of males and females.

CASE STUDY QUESTIONS

Q29. Mahindra tractor is India’s leading farm equipment

manufacturer. It is the largest tractor selling company in the
world. The factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that
machine A produced 60% and machine B produced 40% of the output
(tractor). Further 2% of the tractor produced by machine A and 1%
produced by machine B were defective. All the tractors are put into

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a big store and one tractor is chosen at random:

(I) The conditional probability that chosen tractor is defective,

given that tractor is produced by machine A will be
1 1 1 1
(a) (b) ( c) (d)
5 7 60 50

(II) The conditional probability that chosen tractor is defective,

given that tractor is produced by machine B will be
1 1 1
(a) (b) (c)
5 7 100
1
(d)
50

(III) The total probability to be chosen a defective tractor (

at random)
3 4 2
(a) (b) (c)
725 215 125
2
(d)
225

(IV) If in random choosing, chosen tractor is defective then the

probability that the chosen tractor is produced by machine A is
1 3 4
(a) (b) (c)
4 4 5
4
(d)
7

(V) If in random choosing, chosen tractor is defective, then the

probability that the chosen tractor is produced by machine B is
1 3 4
(a) (b) (c)
4 4 5
4
(d)
7

Q30. Amit and Nisha appear for an interview for two vacancies in a
company. The probability of Amit’s selection is 1/5 and of
Nisha’s selection is 1/6. Using the above information answer the
following questions.
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 1. What is the probability that both of them selected?
a) 1/30 b) 2/30 c) 11/30 d) none
2. What is the probability that only one of them is selected?
a) 1/10 b) 2/10 c) 3/10 d) 4/10
3. What is the probability that none of them is selected?
a) 1/3 b) 2/3 c) 1/30 d) none
4. If A is the event that Amit is selected, then find P(A’)
a) 1/5 b) 1/6 c) 4/5 d) 1

Assertion reason based questions:

In the following question, a statement of assertion (A) is followed
by a statement of Reason (R). Choose the correct answer out of the
following choices.

(a) Both A and R are true and R is the correct explanation of A.

(b) Both A and R are true but R is not the correct explanation of A.

(c) A is true but R is false.

(d) A is false but R is true.

Assertion (A) The probability of an impossible event is 1.

Reason (R ) If A is a perfect subset of B and P(A)<P(B), then P(B-A)

is equal to P(B)-P(A).

Ans: (d)

ANSWER KEY
1. (c) 15/56 2. (c) 3/5 3. (a) 1/3
4. (d) 3/10 5. (a) 25/102 6. (d) 1/36
7. (b) 1/3 8. (c) 30 9. (a) 7/32

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 10. (d) 26/49

11. 15/56 12. 1/6 13. 1/10, 1/5

15.(i) 8/81 (ii) 16. 13/18 17. 3/28

43/81
19
C 2 x10C 2 19. 217/900 20. 2 1
,
18. 30 3 3
C5

21. 29
22. (i) 3 , (ii) 11 , 23. 56/83
65 4 24
3
(iii)
4
24. 3/8 25. 2/5 26. ½

27. 0.47 28. 20/21

29. 30. 1(a), 2 (c) ,

3 (b), 4(c)

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