PROBABILITY

Introduction:
The theory of probability is one of the most useful and interesting
branches of modern mathematics. It is becoming prominent by its application
in many fields of learning, such as Insurance, Statistics, Biological Sciences,
Physical Sciences, Engineering, etc.

Random Experiment:

Definition: If an ‘experiment’ is conducted, any number of times, under

essentially identical conditions, there is a set of all possible outcomes
associated with it. If the result is not certain and is anyone of the several
possible outcomes, the experiment is called a random trial or random
experiment. The outcomes are known as elementary events and a set of
outcomes is an event.

Sample Space(S):

The set of all possible outcomes is called a sample space for particular
experiment and is denoted by S.

For example:

1. In a tossing a coin, the possible outcomes are Head (H) or Tail (T).

∴ S = {H, T}

2. In a tossing two coins, the possible outcomes are HH, HT, TH and TT.

∴ S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

3. In a tossing a die, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

∴ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

1
Exhaustive Events:

All possible events in any trial are known as exhaustive events.

For example:

1. In a tossing a coin, there are two exhaustive cases either a head or a tail and
there is no third probability.
2. In throwing a die, there are six exhaustive cases i.e.1 or 2 or 3 or 4or 5 or 6.
3. In drawing 3 balls out of 9 balls in a box, there are 9 c3 exhaustive cases.

Mutually Exhaustive Events:

Events are said to be mutually exhaustive, if the happening of any one

the events in a trail excludes the happening of any one of the others i.e, if no
two or more of the events can happen simultaneously in the same trail.

For example: In a tossing a coin either head comes up or the tail and both can
not happen at the same time, so there are two mutually exhaustive events.

Equally Likely Events:

If one of the events can not be expected to happen in performance to

another then such events are said to be equally likely events.

For example: In a tossing a coin the coming of the head or tail is equally likely
events.

Definition of Probability:

In a random experiment, if there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive

and equally likely cases. Let E be an event of the experiment. If m are favorable
to an event E , then the probability (P) of the happening of E is P(E) = m
n


If E denotes the event of non – occurrence of E, then the number of elementary
 
events in E is (n-m) and hence the probability of E is
 nm m
P (E) =  1   1  P( E )
n n
2
Axioms of Probability

The probability is a function defined on a sample space, satisfying the

following axioms.

1. For any event E is associated a real number between 0 & 1 called probability
of that event is denoted by P(E) thus 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
2. The sum of the all probabilities of all sample events constituting the sample
space is 1 i.e P(S) =1.
3. If A & B are mutually exclusive events in S then P (AUB) = (PA) + P (B).
i.e Probability of sum is the sum of the probabilities.

Theorem 1: If A is any event in S, then P( A ) = 1 – P(A)
 
Proof: If A and A are disjoint events then A U A = S
   
⇨ A U A = S ⇨ P(A U A )= P(S) ⇨ P(A)+ P( A )= 1 ⇨ P( A )= 1 –P(A)

Theorem 2: For any two events A and B, then

(i) P (A1∩B) = P (B) – P (A∩B) (ii) P (A∩ B1) = P (A) – P (A∩B)
Proof: Let A and B are any two events in S, then

i) (A1 ∩ B) and (A∩ B) are disjoint events and (A1∩B) U (A∩B) = B

⇨ P [(A1∩B) U (A∩B)] = P(B) ⇨P(A1∩B) + P(A∩B) = P(B)

∴ P (A1∩B) = P (B) – P (A∩B)

ii) (A ∩ B1) and (A∩ B) are disjoint events and ((A ∩ B1) U (A∩B) = A

⇨P [(A ∩ B1) U (A∩B)] = P (A) ⇨ P (A ∩ B1) +P (A∩B) = P (A)

∴ P (A ∩ B1)) = P (A) – P (A∩B)

3
Addition Theorem for Probability

Statement: If A and B are any two events of a sample space S and are not
disjoint then P (A UB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B).

Proof: Let A and B are any two events of a sample space S and are not disjoint

We have AUB = A U (A1∩B) ⇨ P (AUB) = P [A U (A1∩B)]

⇨ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (A1∩B)

⇨ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (A1∩B) + P (A∩B) – P (A∩B).

⇨ P (AUB) = P (A) + P [(A1∩B) U P (A∩B)] – P (A∩B).

⇨ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B).

∴ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B).

Similarly If A, B and C are any three events of a sample space S and are
not disjoint then

P (A UBUC) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) – P (A∩B) – P (A∩C) – P (B∩C) + P (A∩B∩C).

Examples:

1 1 1
1. If P (A) = , P (B) = and P (A∩B) = then find
2 3 5

(i) P (A UB) (ii) P (A1∩B) (ii) P (A ∩ B1) (iv) P (A1 ∩ B1)

1 1 1
Solution: Given that P (A) = , P (B) = and P (A∩B) =
2 3 5

(i) P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) ( by Addition theorem)

1 1 1 𝟏𝟗
P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) = + – = = 0.6333
2 3 5 𝟑𝟎

4
 (ii) P (A1∩B) = P (B) – P (A∩B) ( by Theorem 2)

1 1 2
P (A1∩B) = P (B) – P (A∩B)= – = 15 = 0.1333
3 5

(iii) P (A ∩ B1) = P (A) – P (A∩B) ( by Theorem 2)

1 1 3
P (A ∩ B1) = P (A) – P (A∩B) = – = = 0.3333
2 5 10

19 11
(iv) P (A1 ∩ B1) = 1 – P (AUB) = 1 – = = 0.3666
30 30
2. A bag contains 4 green, 6 black, and 7 white balls. A ball is drown at a
random. What is the probability that it is either a green or black ball?

Solution: The total ball in a bag = 17, n(S) = 17

Let E1 denotes the event of drawing a green ball and E2 denotes the event of
drawing a black ball.

4 6
n (E1) = 4 and n(E2) = 6 P(E1) = and P(E2) =
17 17
Here E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events then E1∩E2 = ɸ
By addition theorem for probability
𝟒 𝟔 𝟏𝟎
P (E1UE2) = P (E1) + P (E2) – P (E1∩E2) = + =
𝟏𝟕 𝟏𝟕 𝟏𝟕
4 1 1
3. If P (A UB) = , P (B1) = and P (A∩B) = then find
5 3 5

(i) P (B) (ii) P (A) (iii) P (A1 ∩ B) (iv) P (A ∩ B1)

4 1 1
Solution: Given that P (A UB) = , P (B1) = and P (A∩B) =
5 3 5

1 2 𝟐
We know that P (B) + P (B1)=1 ⇨ (i) P(B) =1- P (B1)= 1- = ∴ P(B) =
3 3 𝟑

P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) (by Addition theorem)

⇨ (ii) P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) ⇨ P (A) = P (AUB) – P (B) + P (A∩B)

5
 4 2 1 1 𝟏
⇨ P (A) = – + = ∴ P (A) =
5 3 5 3 𝟑

2 1 𝟕
(iii) P (A1 ∩ B)= P (B) – P (A∩B)= – =
3 5 𝟏𝟓

1 1 𝟐
(iv) P (A ∩ B1) = P (A) – P (A∩B)= – =
3 5 𝟏𝟓

4. From a city 3 news papers A, B, C are being published. A is read by 20% , B is

read by 16% , C is read by 14%, both A and B are read by 8%, both A and C
are read by 5%, both B and C are read by 4% and all three A, B, C are read by
2%. What is the percentage population that read at least one paper?

20 16 14 8
Solution: Given that P (A) = , P (B) = , P (C) = , P (A∩B) = ,
100 100 100 100

5 4 2
P (A∩C)= , P (B∩C)= and P (A∩B∩C)=
100 100 100

∴ P (AUBUC) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) – P (A∩B) – P (A∩C) – P (B∩C) + P (A∩B∩C)

20 16 14 8 5 4 2 35
∴ P (AUBUC) = 100 + 100 + 100 – 100 – 100 – 100 + 100 = 100

∴ Percentage of the population that read atleast one paper = 35

5. Among 150 students 80 are studying mathematics, 40 are studying physics

and 30 are studying mathematics and physics. If a student is choosen at
random , find the probability that the student
i) Studying mathematics or physics
ii) Studying neither mathematics nor physics

Solution:

Let A be the event that the student studying mathematics.

B be the event that the student studying physics.

P (A∩B) be the event that the student studying mathematics and physics.

80 8 40 4 30 3
∴P (A) = = , P (B) = = and P (A∩B) = =
150 15 150 15 150 15
6
 (i) Probability that a student studying mathematics or physics
8 4 3 9 3
∴ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) = + – = =
15 15 15 15 5

(ii) Probability that a student studying neither mathematics nor physics

3 2
P (A1 ∩ B1) = P [(AUB)1] = 1 – P (AUB) = 1 – =
5 5

Conditional Probability

If A and B are any two events then the probability of the happening of
event B given that A has already happened, is denoted by P (B/A) and is
𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵)
defined as P (B/A) = (𝑃 𝐴 ≠ 0) or P (A/B) = (𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0)
𝑃 (𝐴) 𝑃 (𝐵)

Example

3 1 1
1. If P(Ac) = , P(Bc) = and P (A∩B) = , then find
8 2 4
(i) P(A/B) (ii) P(B/A) (iii) P(Ac/ Bc) (iv) P(Bc/ Ac)

Solution:

3 1 1
Given that P (Ac) = , P (Bc) = and P (A∩B) =
8 2 4

3 5 1 1
We know that P (A) = 1 – P (Ac) = 1 – = and P (B) = 1 – P (Bc) = 1 – =
8 8 2 2

5 1 1 7
∴ P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) = 8 + 2 – 4 = 8

𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵) 1/4 1
(i) P (A/B) = = =
𝑃 (𝐵) 1/2 2
𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵) 1/4 2
(ii) P (B/A) = = =
𝑃 (𝐴) 5/8 5

𝑃 (𝐴𝑐 ∩𝐵 𝑐 ) 1−𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵) 1−7/8 1 1

(iii) P (Ac/Bc) = = = = 2=
𝑃 (𝐵 𝑐 ) 1/2 1/2 8 4

𝑃 (𝐴𝑐 ∩𝐵 𝑐 ) 1−𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵) 1−7/8 1 8 1

(iv) P (Bc/Ac) = = = = =
𝑃 (𝐴 𝑐 ) 3/8 3/8 8 3 3

7
 Multiplication theorem of probability

Statement:
In a random experiment if A and B are two events such that 𝑃 𝐴 ≠ 0
and 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0 , then P (A∩B) = P (A) P(B/A) or P (A∩B) = P(B) P(A/B)

Proof: Let S be the sample space associated with the random experiment.
Let A and B are two events of S such that that 𝑃 𝐴 ≠ 0 and𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0.

Since 𝑃 𝐴 ≠ 0 , by definition of conditional probability of B given A

𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵)
P (B/A) =
𝑃 (𝐴)
⇨ P (A∩B) = P (A) P(B/A)

Since 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0 , by definition of conditional probability of A given B

𝑃 (𝐴∩𝐵)
P (A/B) =
𝑃 (𝐵)
⇨ P (A∩B) = P (B) P(A/B)

𝑃 (𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 ) = 1 – P (A∩B) =1 – P (A) P (B/A)

𝑃 (𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 ) = 1 – {P (A) P (B/A)}

Independent Events: If the occurrence of the event B is not affected by the

occurrence of the event A, then the event B is said to be independent of A.

Dependent Events: If the occurrence of the event B is affected by the

occurrence of the event A, then the event B is said to be dependent of A.

If A and B are independent events then P (A/B) = P (A)

∴ P (A∩B) = P (A) P (B)

8
Examples:

1. Box A contains 5 red and 3 white marbles and box B contains 2 red and 6
white marbles. If a marble is drawn from each box, what is the probability
that they are both of same colours.

Solution:

Let E1 = The event that the marble is drawn from box A and is red

1 5 5
∴ P (E1) = =
2 8 16

E2 = The event that the marble is drawn from box B and is red

1 2 1
∴ P (E2) = =
2 8 8

The probability that both marbles are red is

5 1 5
P (E1∩E2) = P (E1) P (E2) = =
16 8 128

Let E3 = The event that the marble is drawn from box A and is white

1 3 3
∴ P (E3) = =
2 8 16

E4 = The event that the marble is drawn from box B and is white

1 6 3
∴ P (E4) = =
2 8 8

The probability that both marbles are white is

3 3 9
P (E3∩E4) = P (E3) P (E4) = =
16 8 128

The probability that the marbles are of same colour

5 9 14 7
P (E1∩E2) + P (E3∩E4) = + = = = 0.109
128 128 128 64

9
2. Two marbles are drawn in succession from a box containing 10 red , 30
white, 20 blue and 15 orange marbles , with replacement being made after
each drawn. Find the probability that (i) both are white (ii) first is red an
second is white.

Solution:

The total number of marbles in the box = 75

(i) Let E1 = Event of the first drawn marble is white

30 2
∴ P (E1) = =
75 5

Let E2 = Event of the second drawn marble is also white

30 2
∴ P (E2) = =
75 5

The probability that both marbles are white (with replacement)

2 2 4
P (E1∩E2) = P (E1) P (E2) = =
5 5 25

(ii) Let E1 = Event of the first drawn marble is red

10 2
∴ P (E1) = =
75 15

Let E2 = Event of the second drawn marble is also white

30 2
∴ P (E2) = =
75 5

The probability that the first marble is red and second marble is white

2 2 4
P (E1∩E2) = P (E1) P (E2) = =
5 15 75

10
 1 2 1 1
3. The probabilities that students A, B, C, D solve a problem are
3
, , and
5 5 4

respectively. If all the them try to solve the problem, what is the
probability that the problem is solved.

Solution:

Given that the probabilities of A, B, C, D solving the problem is

1 2 1 1
P (A) = , P (B) = , P (C) = and P (D) =
3 5 5 4

The probability that the problem is not solved by A, B, C, D are

1 2 2 3
P (Ac) =1 – P (A) = 1 – = P (Bc) =1 – P (B) = 1 – =
3 3 5 5

1 4 1 3
P (Cc) =1 – P (C) = 1 – = P (Dc) =1 – P (D) = 1 – =
5 5 4 4

The probability that the problem is not solved when A, B, C, D try together

P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ∩ 𝐷𝑐 ) = P (𝐴𝑐 ) P (𝐵𝑐 ) P (𝐶 𝑐 ) P (𝐷𝑐 )

2 3 4 3 6
∴ P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ∩ 𝐷𝑐 ) = =
3 5 5 4 25

The probability that the problem is solved =P(A∪B∪C∪D)= 1 –P[(A∪B∪C∪D)c]

The probability that the problem is solved = 1 –[P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ∩ 𝐷𝑐 ) ]

6 19
∴ The probability that the problem is solved = 1 – =
25 25

11
 1 1
4. The probabilities of 3 students to solve a problem in mathematics are ,
2 3
1
, respectively, find probability that the problem to be solved.
4

Solution:

Given that the probabilities of A, B, C solving the problem is

1 1 1
P (A) = , P (B) = and P (C) =
2 3 4

The probability that the problem is not solved by A, B, C are

1 1 1 2
P (Ac) =1 – P (A) = 1 – = P (Bc) =1 – P (B) = 1 – =
2 2 3 3

1 3
P (Cc) =1 – P (C) = 1 – =
4 4

The probability that the problem is not solved when A, B, C try together

P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) = P (𝐴𝑐 ) P (𝐵𝑐 ) P (𝐶 𝑐 )

1 2 3 1
∴ P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) = =
2 3 4 4

The probability that the problem is solved = P(A∪B∪C)= 1 –P[(A∪B∪C)c]

The probability that the problem is solved =1 – [ P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) ]

1 3
∴The probability that the problem is solved = 1 – =
4 4

12
5. A can hit a target 3 times in 5 shots, B can hit target 2 times in 5 shots, C can
hits target 3 times in 4 shots. Find the probability of the target being hit
when all of them try.
Solution:
Let P (A) be the probability of A hitting the target, P (B) be the probability of
B hitting the target and P (C) be the probability of C hitting the target.

3 2 3
P (A) = , P (B) = and P (C) =
5 5 4

3 2 2 3
P (Ac) =1 – P (A) = 1 – = P (Bc) =1 – P (B) = 1 – =
5 5 5 5
3 1
P (Cc) =1 – P (C) = 1 – =
4 4

The probability that none of A, B, C hits the target

2 3 1 3
P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) = P (𝐴𝑐 ) P (𝐵𝑐 ) P (𝐶 𝑐 ) = =
5 5 4 50

∴The required probability = P(A∪B∪C)= 1 –P[(A∪B∪C)c]

3 47
= 1 – [ P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) ] = 1 – =
50 50
47
∴The probability of atleast one of A, B, C hitting the target =
50

6. In a group consisting of equal number men and women 10% of the men and
45% of the women are unemployed. If a person is selected randomly from
the group then find the probability that the person is an employee.

1 1
Solution: We have P (M) = , P (W) =
2 2
Let A be the event of unemployed and E be the employed event
10 1 45 9
Then P (A/M) = = and P (A/W) = =
100 10 100 20
90 9 55 11
P (E/M) = = and P (E/W) = =
100 10 100 20
The probability that the is employed= P (M) P (E/M) + P (W) P (E/W)
1 9 1 11 9 11 29
= + = + = = 0.725
2 10 2 20 20 40 40

13
7. A can hit a target once in a 5 shots B can hit 2 targets in 3 shots. C can hit
one target in 4 shots. What is the probability that 2 shots hit the target?
Solution:
Let P (A) be the probability of A hitting the target, P (B) be the probability of
B hitting the target and P (C) be the probability of C hitting the target.
1 2 1
P (A) = , P (B) = and P (C) =
5 3 4
4 1 3
and P (𝐴𝑐 ) = , P (𝐵𝑐 ) = and P (𝐶 𝑐 ) =
5 3 4

The probability that two shots hit the target

= P (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 ) + P (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ∩ 𝐶) + P (𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
= P (A) P (B) P (𝐶 𝑐 ) + P (A) P (𝐵𝑐 ) P (C) + P (𝐴𝑐 ) P (B) P (C)
1 2 3 1 1 1 4 2 1 6 1 8 15 1
= + + = + + = =
5 3 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 60 60 60 60 4
8. Two dice are thrown. Let A be the event that the sum of the points on the
faces is 9. Let B be the event that atleast one is 6. Find
(i) P (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) (ii) P (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) (iii) P (𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 )
Solution:
There are 36 possible outcomes when two are thrown.
The event A (= the sum of the points) occurs in the following way
4
A = {( 3, 6) , (4,5) , (5,4) , (6,3) } ∴ P(A) =
36
The event B that at least one number is 6 occurs in the following way
B={ (1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4, 6), (5, 6), (6, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5)}
11
∴ P (B) =
36
Now (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = (3, 6) , (6,3)
2
(i) P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)=
36
4 11 2 13
(ii) P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B) = + – =
36 36 36 36
2 34 17
(iii) P (𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 ) = P [(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)𝑐 )] = 1 – P (A∩B)= 1 – = =
36 36 18

14
BEYE’S THEOREM
Statement: An event A corresponds to a number of exhaustive events B1, B2,
B3, B4 , ------Bn . If P (Bi) and P (A/Bi) are given, then
𝐴
𝑃 𝐵𝑖 𝑃(𝐵 )
𝑖
P (Bi/A) = 𝑛 𝐴
𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 𝑃(𝐵 )
𝑖

Proof:
Since B1, B2, B3, B4 , ------Bn are ‘n’ exhaustive events

S = B1 U B2 U B3 U B4------- U Bn

Since A is another event can occur with any of the mutually and

exhaustive events B1, B2, B3, B4 , ------Bn therefore it can be written as

A = (B1∩ 𝐴) U (B2∩ 𝐴) U (B3∩ 𝐴) U (B4∩ 𝐴) ------- U (Bn∩ 𝐴)

P (A) =P {(B1∩ 𝐴) U (B2∩ 𝐴) U (B3∩ 𝐴) U (B4∩ 𝐴) ------- U (Bn∩ 𝐴)}

⇨P (A) =P (B1∩ 𝐴) +P (B2∩ 𝐴) +P (B3∩ 𝐴) +P (B4∩ 𝐴) +------- + P (Bn∩ 𝐴)

𝑛 𝑛
⇨ P (A) = 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐴 ⇨ P (A) = 𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) P (A/Bi) ----------- (1)

The conditional probability of an event Bi given that A has already

𝐴
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ∩𝐴) 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 𝑃(𝐵 )
𝑖
happened, is given by P (Bi/A) = = -------------(2)
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)

𝑨
𝑷 𝑩𝒊 𝑷( )
𝑩𝒊
P (Bi/A) = 𝒏 𝑷(𝑩 ) 𝑷 (𝑨/𝑩𝒊) (from (1)
𝒊=𝟏 𝒊

Hence the theorem.

15
Examples:

1. In a bolt factory machines A, B, C manufactures 20% , 30% and 50% of the

total of their output and 6% , 3% and 2% are defective . A bolt is drawn at
a random and to be defective. Find the probabilities that it is manufactured
from (i) Machine A (ii) Machine B (iii) Machine C

Solution: Let P (A) , P (B) , P (C) be the probabilities of the event that the bolts
are manufactured by the machines A, B, C respectively . Then
20 30 50
P(A) = P(B) = P(C) =
100 100 100

Let D denotes that the bolt is defective. Then

6 3 2
P(D/A) = P(D/B) = P(D/C) =
100 100 100

(i) If the bolt is defective , then the probability that it is from machine A
𝐷
𝑃 𝑃(𝐴)
𝐴
= P(A/D) = 𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃(𝐶)

6 20
120 12
P(A/D) = 6 20
100
3
100
30 2 50 = 310 = 31 = 0.39
+ +
100 100 100 100 100 100

(ii) If the bolt is defective , then the probability that it is from machine B
𝐷
𝑃 𝐵 𝑃(𝐵)
= P(B/D) = 𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃(𝐶)

3 30
90 9
P(A/D) = 6 20
100
3
100
30 2 50 = 310 = 31 = 0.29
+ +
100 100 100 100 100 100

(iii) If the bolt is defective , then the probability that it is from machine C
𝐷
𝑃 𝐶 𝑃(𝐶)
= P(C/D) = 𝐷 𝐷 𝐷
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 𝑃(𝐶)

2 50
100 10
P(C/D) = 6 20
100
3
100
30 2 50 = 310 = 31 = 0.32
+ +
100 100 100 100 100 100

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2. A businessman goes to hotels X, Y, Z, 20%, 50%, and 30% of the time
respectively. It is known that 5%, 4% and 8% of the rooms in X, Y, Z, hotels
have faulty plumbings. What the probabilities that business man’s room
having faulty plumbing is assigned to hotels X, Y, Z?

Solution: Let the probabilities of business man going to hotels X, Y, Z be

respectively P (X), P (Y), P (Z).Then
20 50 30
P(X) = P(Y) = P (Z) =
100 100 100
Let E be the event that the hotel has faulty plumbing. Then the probabilities
that hotels X, Y, Z have faulty plumbing are
5 4 8
P (E/X) = P (E/Y) = P (E/Z) =
100 100 100

(i) The probability that the business man’s room having faulty plumbing is
assigned to hotel X
𝐸
𝑃 𝑋 𝑃(𝑋)
= P(X/E) = 𝐸 𝐸 𝐸
𝑃 𝑋 𝑃(𝑋)+𝑃 𝑌 𝑃(𝑌)+𝑃 𝑍 𝑃(𝑍)

5 20
100 10 5
P(X/E) = 5 20
100
4
100
50 8 30 = = = = 0.19
+ + 540 54 27
100 100 100 100 100 100

(ii) The probability that the business man’s room having faulty plumbing is
assigned to hotel Y
𝐸
𝑃 𝑃(𝑌)
𝑌
= P(Y/E) = 𝐸 𝐸 𝐸
𝑃 𝑋 𝑃(𝑋)+𝑃 𝑌
𝑃(𝑌)+𝑃 𝑍 𝑃(𝑍)

4 50
200 20 10
P(Y/E) = 5 20
100
4
100
50 8 30 = 540 = 54 = = 0.37
+ + 27
100 100 100 100 100 100

(iii) The probability that the business man’s room having faulty plumbing
is assigned to hotel Z
𝐸
𝑃 𝑍 𝑃(𝑍)
= P (Z/E) = 𝐸 𝐸 𝐸
𝑃 𝑋 𝑃(𝑋)+𝑃 𝑌 𝑃(𝑌)+𝑃 𝑍 𝑃(𝑍)

8 30
240 24 4
P(Y/E) = 5 20
100
4
100
50 8 30 = 540 = 54 = 9 = 0.44
+ +
100 100 100 100 100 100

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 3. Three machines M1, M2 and M3 produce identical items of their
respective outputs 5%, 4% and 3% of items are faulty. On a certain day
M1 has produced 25% of total output, M2 has produced 30% and M3 the
remainder. An item is selected at random is found to be faulty. What are
the change that it was produced by the machine with the height output?

Solution: Let the event of drawing a faulty item from any one of the
machine be D and the event that an item drawn at random was produced by
Mi be Bi . We have to find P (Bi/ D). For this we proceed as follows.

M1 M2 M3

P (Bi) 0.25 0.30 0.45

P (D/Bi) 0.05 0.04 0.03

P (Bi) P (D/Bi) 0.0125 0.012 0.0135 = 0.038

0.0125 0.012 0.0135

P (D/Bi)
0.038 0.038 0.038

P (D/Bi) 0.3289 0.3158 0.3553

∴ The height output being from M3

4. In a bolt factory machines A, B and C manufactures 25%, 35% and 40% of

the total of their output and 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts. A bolt is
drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What are
the probabilities that it was manufactured by Machines A, B and C.

Solution: Let the event of drawing a defective item from any one of the
machine be D and the event that an item drawn at random was produced by
A or B or C be Bi . We have to find P (Bi/ D). For this we proceed as follows.

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 A B C

P (Bi) 0.25 0.35 0.40

P (D/Bi) 0.05 0.04 0.02

P (Bi) P (D/Bi) 0.0125 0.014 0.008 = 0.0345

0.0125 0.014 0.008

P (D/Bi)
0.0345 0.0345 0.0345

P (D/Bi) 0.3623 0.4058 0.2319

If the bolt is defective, then the probability that it is from machine A = 0.3623
If the bolt is defective, then the probability that it is from machine A = 0.4058
If the bolt is defective, then the probability that it is from machine A = 0.2319
5. There are three bags , first bag containing 1white , 2 red, 3 green , second
bag containing 2white, 3 red, 1 green, third bag containing 3white ,1 red,
2 green balls. Two balls are drawn from a choosen at random. There are
found to be 1 white and 1 red. Find the probability that the balls drawn
came from second bag.

Solution: Let B1, B2 ,B3 to be first , second and third gags choosen and A be

the an event that the two balls are white and red.
1
P (B1) = P (B2) = P (B3) =
3
1𝑐 1 2𝑐 1 2 2𝑐 1 3𝑐 1 2 3𝑐 1 1𝑐 1 1
P (A/B1) = = P (A/B2) = = P (A/B3) = =
6𝑐 2 15 6𝑐 2 5 6𝑐 2 5

n
i=1 P(Bi ) P (A/Bi) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + P (B3) P (A/B3)

1 2 1 2 1 1 11
= + + =
3 15 3 5 3 5 45

By Baye’s theorem, the probability that the balls drawn came from first
1 2 11 2
bag = / =
3 15 45 11
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By Baye’s theorem, the probability that the balls drawn came from
1 2 11 6
second bag = / =
3 5 45 11

By Baye’s theorem, the probability that the balls drawn came from third
1 1 11 3
bag = / =
3 5 45 11
6. In a certain college, 4% of men and 1% of women are taller than 1.8
meters. Further more in the college 60% of students were women. If a
student is selected at random and is taller than 1.8 meters, find the
probability that the selected student is women.

Solution: Let M denote men and W denotes women.

P (M) = 40% = 0.4 and P (W) = 60% = 0.6

Let A denotes the student is taller than 1.8 meters.

P (A/M) = 4% = 0.04 and P (A/W) = 10% = 0.01

∴ P (M) P (A/M) = (0.4) (0.04) = 0.016

∴ P (W) P (A/W) = (0.6) (0.01) = 0.006

P (M) P (A/M) + P (W) P (A/W) = 0.016 + 0.006= 0.022

∴ P (M/A) = (0.016) / (0.022) = 0.7273

∴ P (W/A) = (0.006) / (0.022) = 0.2727

∴ Probability of the student is women = 0.2727

∴ Probability of the student is men = 0.7273

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