Statistical Applications ACTIVITY 4: Hypothesis Tests on the Mean

Why
The predominant (but far from the only) mode of decision-making in statistics is the“test of
significance”. The mechanics vary between situations, but the underlying logic is the same. we
need to establish the basic ideas – using tests on a population mean.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Work as a team, using the team roles
2. Understand the logical basis of tests of significance - focusing on tests on the mean.
3. Be able to use test procedures to make a statistical decision.
CRITERIA
1. Success in completing the exercises.
2. Success in answering questions about the model
3. Success in working as a team
RESOURCES
1. The “HYPOTHESIS TESTING USING α AND β (chapters 9,10 and 11)’ handout from Monday
2. for mechanics: the document “Hypothesis testing - generalities” attached to this activity sheet
3. Your Text - especially sections 9.1 through 9.4
4. The model below
5. Your Calculator
6. 40 minutes
PLAN
1. Select roles, if you have not already done so, and decide how you will carry out steps 2 and 3 (5
minutes)
2. Work through the exercises given here - be sure everyone understands all results (30 minutes)
3. Assess the team’s work and roles performances and prepare the Reflector’s and Recorder’s reports
including team grade (5 minutes).
4. Be prepared to discuss your results.
MODELS
1. A new fertilizer is being tested for use on corn; the tests will be carried out in an area in which
the mean yield has been 142 bushels per acre, . We will assume that corn yields are known to be
approximately normally distributed. Naturally, we will want to know if the new fertilizer increases
the yields. A sample of 5 plots with the new fertilizer gives yields of 147.5, 140.6, 155.3 , 156.2, and
148.4 bushels per acre. Does this show that the new fertilizer produces an increase in mean yield?
[Test at 5% level]
I Population - corn fields fertilized with the new fertilizer. Variable X = corn yield (bu/A). Test
is on mean. Test is :
H0 : µ = 142
Ha : µ > 142
x̄−142
II Test statistic is t = √
sx / n
with df = n − 1
III Critical value approach: Reject H0 if sample t > t.05 = 2.132 (with df = 4)[table p. 920]
149.6−142
IV t = √
6.38/ 5
= 2.66
V Reject H0 and support Ha

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 VI The sample does give evidence at the .05 level that the mean yield is increased by the fertilizer.
Using the p-value approach, we’d have:
149.6−142
III t = √
6.38/ 5
= 2.66 df = 4
IV p = P (t > 2.66), approximating from the table [p. 920] p is between .05 and .025 (since t is between
t. 05 = 2.132 and t. 025 = 2.776) [Calculator/ computer gives p = .028]
Steps V, VI are the same.
2. The number of accidents at a certain hazardous intersection has varied, with a mean 2.2 accidents per
week. Because of construction work on different roads and the opening of other roads, the highway
department thinks the rate may have changed - but don’t know which way. A sampling over twenty
weeks gives a mean 2.12 accidents and standard deviation 1.4 accidents (per week). [We will assume
the number of accidents per week is symmetric enough that the sample means will be approximately
normally distributed] Does this provide evidence that the mean number of accidents has changed?
I Population: weeks [note our sample is of twenty weeks]. Variable: X = number of accidents at
this intersection (with the new conditions) Parameter: Mean. Test is:
H0 : µ = 2.2
Ha : µ 6= 2.2
x̄−2.2
II Statistic t = √ df
sx / n
=n−1
III To test at .05 level: Reject H0 if sample t > t.025 or if sample t < −t.025 -from table, with df = 19,
t.025 = 2.093
2.12−2.2
IV sample t = √
1.4/ 20
= −.26
V We do not reject H0 the sample does not provide evidence at the .05 level that the mean number
of accidents has changed.
Calculating the p-value, from the tabel we can only tell that t does not even reach t. 20, so we know
that p > 2(.20) = .40. Calculator gives p = .80.
Both methods are saying that this amount of change is easily explained as usual variability - no
evidence of a change in the basic situation.
EXERCISE
Show all the setup - identify population, variables,etc. Write your conclusion in words.
1. The faculty at Ino U. claim that students spend an average of 3 hours per day studying. The Student
Academic Council believes this figure is too low, and undertakes a study intending to show that the
average study time for all students is more than 3 hours per day. The Academic Council selects a
simple random sample of 30 students and obtains a mean study time, for the sample, of 3.5 hours
per day [Ino U. is not a very competitive college], standard deviation 1.5 hours Now they need to
analyze the data.
2. A soft-drink bottler sells “one-liter” bottles of soda. The state Consumer Products Division is
concerned that the bottler may be short changing the customers. Thus the CPD will test to see if
the mean amount in a bottle is less than 1000 ml. Carry out the test. The contents of the 30 bottles
of soda selected by the CPD are as follows: (ml):
1025 977 1018 975 977 990 959 957 1031 964 986 914 1010 988 987
1028 989 1001 984 974 1017 1060 1030 991 999 997 996 1014 946 995
3. The general partner of a limited partnership firm has told a potential investor that the mean monthly
rent for three-bedroom homes in the area is $525. The investor wants to check out this claim on her
own (see whether the real mean is different or as claimed) She obtains the monthly rental charges
for a random sample of 35 three-bedroom homes, obtaining a mean monthly rent of $581.65 and a
standard deviation of $118.73. What conclusion about monthly rents will she reach?
READING ASSIGNMENT (in preparation for next class)
Read Chapter 9 (9.6–9.7) - Decision-making and types of errors

SKILL EXERCISES:Use your calculator or Minitab for number -crunching [Minitab will carry out hypoth-
esis tests when you have actual data to work with] but you have to write the hypotheses and conclusion.
p. 358 #20, p.363 #28, 29, p.368(proportions)#40, 41

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 Hypothesis testing - generalities,
Example of mean of a population
Question is always :Do we have evidence of a difference?

Steps
I. Identify population, variable, parameter [in this case, parameter is mean µ of the variable in the population] and write the null
hypothesis H0 and the alternative hypothesis H a.
For tests on mean, three forms, all involve some “known value” (or “old value”) k
“greater” : “less” “not equal”
H0: µ = k H0: µ = k H0: µ = k
Ha: µ > k Ha: µ < k Ha: µ ≠ k
II. Identify test statistic and its distribution:
x"k x"k x "k x "k
For tests on mean, test statistic is t = = with degrees of freedom n – 1 [Occasionally is z = = - if
sx sX / n #x #X / n
we happen to know σ ] and has a t-distribution with degrees of freedom n -1 if
1.) the variable X is normally distributed or 2.) the sample is large enough [over about 20 if “nice”]
Two equivalent ways to proceed for steps III, IV, V
! !
“Classical” or “Critical Value” method “p-value” method
III. Determine level of significance (α), find the critical values and III Calculate the test statistic [selected in step II]
the rejection criteria:[Use table to find critical values] x"k x"k
For mean: sample t = =
For “greater”: Reject H0 if sample t > t" sx sX / n
For “less”: Reject H0 if sample t < "t#
For “not equal”: Reject H0 if
sample t > t " or if sample! t < "t # !
2 2
!

IV Calculate the test statistic [selected in step II] IV. Calculate the p-value
! ! x"k x"k For “greater”: p = P(t > sample t)
For mean: sample t = =
sx sX / n For “less”: p = P(t < sample t)
For “not equal”: p = P(t < " sample t or t > sample t )
!
! !
V Make a statistical decision V. Make a statistical decision
If the rejection criterion (step III) is satisfied we have evidence of !
If the p-value is small enough [usually compare to a “level
a difference: Reject H0 and support H a of significance” α ] we have good evidence for a difference
If the rejection criterion is not satisfied we do not have enough Reject H0 and support H a
evidence to say there’s a difference: Fail to reject H0 and fail to If the p-value is not small enough, we do not have good
enough evidence to say there’s a difference: Fail to reject
support Ha
H0 and fail to support Ha

VI. Answer the question.

Answer – in words and in context – the question that led to the hypothesis test.
Basic conclusion [needs to be re-stated to match question]

Data show at level α that there is [whatever difference we looked for]

or
Data do not show at level α that there is [whatever difference we looked for]