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17 August 2011
Yukon-Nevada Gold
Year End 12/09 12/10 12/11e 12/12e Revenue (US$m) 9.9 71.4 217.0 199.9 PBT* (US$m) (41.4) (84.3) 131.2 55.7 EPS* (c) (12.2) (12.8) 14.1 6.0 DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/E (x) N/A N/A 3.4 8.0 Yield (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A
C$0.47 C$437m
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items. C$0.98/US$.
Share details Codes and listings Sector Shares in issue Price 52 week
High C$0.95
Low C$0.38
Balance Sheet as at 31 December 2010 Debt/Equity (%) 26.7 NAV per share (c) 11.6 Net debt ($m) 21.5 Business Yukon-Nevada Gold operates its Jerritt Canyon mine and processing plant in north Nevada, US. It also explores for gold and base metals in the Yukon Territory at its Ketza River project. Valuation 2010 P/E relative P/CF EV/Sales ROE N/A N/A 4.6 N/A 2011e 43% 4.8 1.2 34% 2012e 112% 5.5 1.3 14%
US N/A
Other 100%
mining@edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk
Investment summary: Jerritt Canyon 30 years on and still potential for more
Yukon-Nevada Gold operates its main asset, the Jerritt Canyon mine site in north Nevada, US, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Queenstake Resources. The site has been in operation since 1981 and has produced over 7.7Moz gold from 13 open pits and seven underground operations. YNG bought the property in 2007 and operates two underground mines, Smith and SSX/Steer.
Financials
On 31 May 2011 Yukon-Nevada announced the closing of a private placement and warrant exercise for total gross proceeds of US$59.3m. This comprised US$14.4m from issuing 33,488,372 units at a price of US$0.43 per unit to Deutsche Bank AG (London branch). The remaining US$44.9m comprised 140,400,000 warrants held by Orifer (a shareholder) transferred to Deutsche Bank and other institutional investors, who immediately exercised the warrants. On 3 August YNG also announced a forward gold purchase agreement with Deutsche Bank whereby c 173koz Au will be delivered to by YNG to Deutsche over 48 months for the prepaid amount of US$120m (see page 10). These funds allow the company to complete an extensive programme of capital expenditure, which will include a planned one-month shutdown of the mill in September 2011. This will allow Yukon-Nevada to modernise and restore the mill, which is critical to the company achieving its production targets.
Phase 3 Phase 4
of sustaining capital employed by Queenstake until 2007, when Yukon-Nevada took control. A steady accumulation in creditors and payables to approximately $39m most likely contributed not only to the suspension of underground mining in August 2008, but also to a stop work order by the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) being imposed in May 2009, due to excessive amounts of mercury being emitted from the mill. Further complications arose from the then mining contractor incorrectly reporting the amount of stockpiled ore (a shortfall of c 90,000 tonnes) and the amount of gold in the processing circuit at the time of the May 2009 shutdown. Exhibit 2: Jerritt Canyon historic (light blue) and forecast production (dark blue)
400,000 300,000
Oz
200,000 100,000 0
198 7
198 9
1991
1995
1993
1997
1999
2001
2010
2012
2003
2006
2008
2014
2016
Tota l kt 16,18 2
Gold production
Jerritt Canyon
The following exhibits detail Yukon-Nevadas current resources and reserves at Jerritt Canyon.
2018
712 6 .40
147 3 3 70
Source: Edison Investment Research, Yukon-Nevada Gold, SRK Consulting 2008 NI43-101 Technical Report
vanadium. The JV has formed a new Canadian company, Yukon-Shaanxi Mining Company, through which Yukon-Nevada aims to strengthen early-stage exploration capabilities in Canada. The following exhibit lists Yukon-Nevadas other Yukon Territory exploration interests. Exhibit 6: Yukon exploration projects
Ownership YNG % Partner Exploration focus Silver Valley Property 100 Ag, Pb, Au Located 8km east of the Ketza River mine. Geochemical sampling in 1968 identified a number of soil anomalies, with follow-up work identifying the Key 18B vein, which assayed 55oz per tonne Ag and 49% Pb over a width of 2.4m. Two exploratory mine adits were driven in on the vein, 20m and 50m below surface. Underground sampling yielded further comparable results. A non-compliant inferred resource of 15kt at 17opt Ag and 12% Pb exists at the project. YNG has drilled further holes along one small portion of the strike and has undertaken ground and airborne geophysical surveys to identify further extensions of the vein system. Wolf Property 34.42 Atna Resources Zn, Pb, Ag The Wolf property consists of 36 mineral claims. Atna earned its interest by spending $1.5m between 1995-99. It is located in the Pelly Mountains near the YTT boundary. A non-JORC resource of 4.1Mt grading 6.2% Zn, 1.8% Pb and 84g/t Ag has been outlined on the Wolf Zone. Two additional satellite structures have been drilled and all deposits are open at depth and along strike. Money Property 100 Cu, Ag, Gold The project area covers 1,030 hectares and is located 5km east of the Wolverine deposit. The claims were drilled in 1996 with five holes totalling 682m. Mineralisation consists of massive sulphides hosted within mafic volcanic rocks. The best drill intersection was 1.0m grading 1.75% copper, 21g/t silver and 0.4g/t gold. The property is optioned by Yukon Zinc. Source: Edison Investment Research, Yukon-Nevada Gold
recommencing at Smith in February 2009. A stockpile of 900,000 tonnes at a grade of 2.1g/t Au for around 62koz was accrued during this period. We forecast that this stockpile will be depleted by end 2012.
Total ore tonnes mined Mt 1.68 Gold grade g/t 6.97 Total ounces produced koz 328 Current mine life yr 2011-2014 J erritt Canyon mining, proces s ing and capex data Jerritt Canyon gold recovery factor Mining cost Cost of backfilling Processing cost Tailings dam capex SSX Initial capex Assumed Starvation Canyon initial capex Estimated average unit cost Smith and Starvation sustaining capital SSX/Steer/Saval sustaining capital % US$/t US$/t US$/t US$m US$m US$m US$/oz US$m US$m 89.0 37.5 7.2 27.6 32.0 4.2 12.0 817 4.8 1.8
Mt g/t koz yr
77.0 3.7 6.0 552 2.8 12.0 5.0 3.0 25.0 5.0
Assumed initial capex US$m Assumed sustaining capex per annUS$m Estimated mine life
yr 2013-2020
Valuation
Assuming Yukon-Nevada pays out all its spare cash in the form of dividends, we estimate the dividend stream to investors from 2011 to 2020 will be worth US$0.69 per share in current money terms (at a discount rate of 10% to reflect general equity risk). Of note is that dividends are depressed between 2011 and 2016 due to impact of the forward gold purchase agreement currently under negotiation with Deutsche Bank (see financials section on page 10 for further details); and also 2019 and 2020 as a result of our forecast for production at Jerritt Canyon finishing in 2018 and only Ketza River producing gold from then on, as shown in Exhibit 8. However, our valuation is unlikely to reflect the situation at Jerritt Canyon post 2018 and we await further information from the company to establish our production forecasts beyond this date.
Exhibit 8: Edison estimate of base case EPS, fully diluted EPS and theoretical DPS, FY11-FY20
Note: DDF = Discounted dividend flow.
0.40
0.20
0.00
US$
2011
2012
2014
2015
2013
2016
2017
2018
EPS
Dil EPS
DPS
2019
DDF (RHS)
Sensitivities
Geological risk and reward
As with all mining ventures, the greatest unknown is hidden below the surface of the earth. Accurately drilling an ore body and reporting probable or proven reserves minimises the risk in mining and producing gold. The risk concerning the nature of the deposit geometry at Jerritt Canyon, which is sporadic and irregular in size and shape, is also the opportunity. With over 20 years of solid production history, many of which were never proceeded by more than three years of reserves, there is an indication that the licence area is a well developed gold system.
2020
Source: Edison Investment Research Exhibit 11: Sensitivity to percentage change in unit costs (Jerritt Canyon and Ketza River)
Percentage change NPV (US$) (10) 0.78 (5) 0.74 0 0 .6 9 5 0.65 10 0.61 15 0.56
Financials
On 31 May 2011 Yukon-Nevada announced the closing of a private placement and warrant exercise for total gross proceeds of US$59.3m. This comprised US$14.4m from issuing 33,488,372 units at a price of US$0.43 per unit to Deutsche Bank AG (London branch). Each unit comprises one 24-month term warrant exercisable at US$0.55 per share. Further, 140,400,000 warrants held by Orifer (a shareholder) were transferred to Deutsche Bank and other institutional investors, who immediately exercised the warrants for proceeds of US$25.6m and US$19.33m respectively. These funds allow the company to complete an extensive programme of capital expenditure, which will include a planned one-month shutdown of the mill in September 2011. This will allow Yukon-Nevada to modernise and restore the mill, which has had no significant expenditures made on it since it was first commissioned in 1981, and is critical to the company achieving its stated production rates.
170,6 04 0 93,8 50 47,347 29,407 29 ,03 2 24,019 2,171 1,106 1,736 ( 3 6 ,8 56 ) (36,8 56) 0 (8 ,257) ( 41,13 2) 0 0 (41,132) 121,6 48
179 ,8 8 2 0 8 9,270 60,526 30,08 6 15,559 9,930 4,549 18 5 8 95 ( 44,402) (44,402) 0 (4,8 38 ) ( 51,3 29 ) 0 0 (51,329) 9 9 ,710
18 9 ,6 27 0 8 8 ,625 67,926 33,076 28 ,18 5 21,28 0 4,505 2,400 0 ( 57,8 75) (48 ,949) (8 ,926) 0 ( 70,575) (15,030) 0 (55,545) 8 9 ,3 6 2
23 2,507 0 112,317 8 2,726 37,464 245,49 3 18 ,08 6 17,8 38 209,568 0 ( 10,9 28 ) (8 ,371) (2,557) (2,950) ( 8 2,203 ) (14,767) (9,012) (58 ,424) 3 8 4,8 6 9
26 8 ,3 9 9 0 148 ,209 8 2,726 37,464 23 7,6 21 16,657 16,429 204,535 0 ( 3 8 ,9 21) (36,364) (2,557) (27,446) ( 78 ,451) (8 ,136) (9,012) (61,303) 3 8 8 ,6 48
Growth
15.0
Profitability
100% 80%
Interest cover
60%
ROCE
40% 20% 0%
-10.0 -15.0
-20% -40%
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
-60%
2008
2009
2010
2011e 2012e
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
Oil/commodity prices
Growth metrics EPS CAGR 08-12e EPS CAGR 10-12e EBITDA CAGR 08-12e EBITDA CAGR 10-12e Sales CAGR 08-12e Sales CAGR 10-12e
Profitability metrics ROCE 11e Avg ROCE 08-12e ROE 11e Gross margin 11e Operating margin 11e Gr mgn / Op mgn 11e
Balance sheet metrics Gearing 11e Interest cover 11e CA/CL 11e Stock turn 11e Debtor days 11e Creditor days 11e N/A 24.5 22.5 30.4 30.0 9.1
Company details Address: 900-688 West Hastings St Vancouver, BC V6B 1P1 Canada Phone +1 604 688 9427 Fax +1 604 688 9426
www.yukon-nevadagold.com
Principal shareholders Orifer S.A. Sprott Asset Management LP Deutsche Bank Marland (Francois) A. R. Schmeidler & Co., Inc. Dickson (Graham C) Perennial Partners, L.L.C. Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Conference call April 2012 Date * 17 August 2011 Full year results
%
20.17 14.47 12.20 9.41 0.67 0.27 0.25
Management team CEO: Robert Baldock Robert Baldock is an experienced mining executive and a qualified and experienced accountant with over 30 years of hands-on management of public and private corporations across a wide range of industries, focusing on mining. Chairman: John Greenslade John Greenslade has been involved in the funding of numerous mining projects in Canada, the United States, Mexico and Peru, at all stages of exploration, development, construction and production. This has been in various capacities, including legal counsel, senior management, and as director of a TSE-listed company from October 1995 to July 1999 and as president and CEO of Baja Mining Corp. COO: Randy Reichert Mr Reichert has 23 years experience from his international work at various operating mines and process facilities. Most recently Mr Reichert was president and COO for Colossus Minerals Inc responsible for the development of the Serra Pelada project in Brazil. Prior to this he was COO of Oriel Resources plc and Orsu Metals Corp. Mr Reichert spent over five years in Russia with Bema Gold, and subsequently Kinross Gold Corporation.
Note: * = estimated
Companies named in this report Newmont Mining, Resolute Mining, Harmony Australia, Newcrest Mining, Rapallo Pty
EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED Edison Investment Research is a leading international investment research company. It has won industry recognition, with awards both in the UK and internationally. The team of more than 75 includes over 40 analysts supported by a department of supervisory analysts, editors and assistants. Edison writes on more than 350 companies across every sector and works directly with corporates, fund managers, investment banks, brokers and other advisers. Edisons research is read by institutional investors, alternative funds and wealth managers in more than 100 countries. Edison, founded in 2003, has offices in London and Sydney and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=181584). DISCLAIMER Copyright 2011 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Yukon-Nevada Gold and prepared and issued by Edison Investment Research Limited for publication in the United Kingdom. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison Investment Research Limited at the time of publication. The research in this document is intended for professional advisers in the United Kingdom for use in their roles as advisers. It is not intended for retail investors. This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. A marketing communication under FSA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison Investment Research Limited has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Investment Research Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business. The company does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, its directors, officers, employees and contractors may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison Investment Research Limited or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This communication is intended for professional clients as defined in the FSAs Conduct of Business rules (COBs 3.5).
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