GLOBAL WARMING & CLIMATE CHANGES

UNIT-4
OBSERVED CHANGES AND ITS CAUSES

S.NO TOPICS

1. Climate change & Carbon credits

2. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

3. CDM in India

4. Kyoto Protocol

5. Inter governmental panel on Climate Change

(IPCC)

6. Climate sensitivity

7. Montreal Protocol

8. United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC)
9. Global change in temperature

10. climate Changes within India

Learning Outcomes

After completing this Unit, students will be able to

 To know about the causes of climate change and carbon credits, effect of changes in temperature and
climate on India.

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Climate change& carbon credit:

A Carbon Credit is a tradeable certificate or permit that gives the holder power to emit carbon dioxide or
other greenhouse gases over a certain period.

 These Carbon Credits are generated from projects around the world that keep the Greenhouse Gases
(GHGs) altogether.
 Carbon credits are basically market mechanisms for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and
slowing down climate change.
 Regulatory bodies or governments set caps on the emission of greenhouse gasses. But for some
companies, a sudden reduction in emissions is not viable financially. Therefore they can purchase the
carbon.
 Companies that are able to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases are usually credited with Carbon
Credits.
 The sale of credits surpluses may be used for subsidizing the projects that would help the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions.

The main motive of Carbon Credit is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases so that the climate change
can be slowed down.

 Carbon Credit allows the emission of greenhouse gases equivalent to one ton of carbon dioxide.
 With this process, the nations can allot a certain number of carbon credits, and they can trade them.
 It would help to restore the balance of worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.
 The intention is to reduce the number of Carbon Credits with time. It would allow companies across the
globe to figure out innovative ways to reduce greenhouse gases on their own.

Types of Carbon Credits

There are two types of Carbon Credits.

 Voluntary emissions reduction (VER): A carbon offset that is exchanged involuntary market for credits.
 Certified emissions reduction (CER): credits created through a regulatory framework with an aim of
offsetting emissions from a project.

Carbon Trading (Carbon Credit Trading)

Carbon Credits can also be traded on both public and private markets. The current rules of training allow
the international transfer of credits as well.

 The prices of Carbon Credits depend on the levels of demand of supply in the markets. So the price
fluctuates on the supply and demand in different countries.
 Carbon Credits have proven beneficial to society. However, it is not easy for the average investor to start
using credits as an investment vehicle.
 Certified Emissions Reductions are the only product that can be used as investments in credits.
However, the CERs(Certified Emissions Reductions) are sold by special carbon funds, which have been
established by big financial institutions.
 The carbon funds give an opportunity for small investors to enter the market.

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Carbon Markets for Caron Credits

Carbon markets allow for the selling and buying of carbon emissions with the objective of reduction of
global emissions of greenhouse gases. Let’s see how the process of buying Carbon Credit works.

 Carbon markets can reduce the emissions reduction over and above what the countries are doing on their
own. It can be explained with an example. The emission of greenhouse gases in a factory in India can be
achieved in two ways.

1. A country that hasn’t been able to reduce emissions can provide technology or financial support to that
factory in India to claim the reduction of emissions as its own.
2. on the other way, that factory in India can make investments and offer sales of emission reduction which
is called Carbon Credits. So other parties that are struggling to meet their target can purchase these
Carbon Credits and show these as their own.

Carbon Credit Initiatives Worldwide

In 1997, the UN came up with a Carbon Credit proposal to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere.
It is also known as Kyoto Protocol. This agreement implemented a limit on emissions for the countries
who signed it. The Kyoto Protocol divided the nations into two parts- Developing & industrialized
economies. In 2012 the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ended.

Carbon Credit Market under the Paris Agreement

At first, the carbon markets existed under the Kyoto Protocol, but it was replaced by the Paris
Agreement in 2020. However, there is a difference between the Kyto Protocol and Paris Agreement.

 Article 6 of the Paris Agreement describes the provision related to setting up a new carbon market.
 Article 6.2 allows bilateral arrangements for the transfer of emissions reductions.
 Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is about a wider carbon market in which reductions can be bought
and sold by anyone.
 Article 6.8 talks about the non-market approaches available to countries to achieve targets.

 India is one of the fastest-growing markets in the world, generating approximately 30 million Carbon
Credits. This is the second-highest transacted volume in the world.
 One Carbon Credit equals 1 ton of carbon dioxide or carbon dioxide equivalent gases. Or Carbon Credit
represents the ownership of 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases that can be sold or
traded.

What are Cap and Trade?

 A government regulatory programme designed to limit, or cap, the total level of emissions of certain
chemicals, particularly carbon dioxide, as a result of industrial activity is known as cap and trade.
 Cap and trade supporters argue that it is a more appealing alternative to a carbon tax. Both measures are
attempts to reduce environmental damage while causing the industry no undue economic hardship.
 Cap-and-trade energy programmes aim to gradually reduce pollution by incentivizing businesses to
invest in clean alternatives.

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Carbon Trading Emissions under Kyoto Protocol

 Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol allows countries with excess capacity, i.e. emissions permitted but not
"used," to sell it to countries that are over their targets.
 As a result, a new commodity in the form of emission reductions or removals was created.
 Because carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas, people simply refer to carbon trading.
 Carbon is now tracked and traded in the same way that any other commodity is. This is known as the
'Carbon Market.'
 Under the Kyoto Protocol emissions trading scheme, more than actual emission units can be traded and
sold.
 Other units that may be transferred under the scheme, each of which is equivalent to one tonne of CO2,
include:
o A removal unit (RMU) is based on land use, land-use change, and forestry activities such as
reforestation.
o An emission reduction unit (ERU) produced by a joint implementation project.
o A certified emission reduction (CER) resulting from a clean development mechanism (CDM)
project activity. It is an activity in which a country with an emission-reduction target under the
Kyoto Protocol is permitted to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries.
o The registry system tracks and records transfers and acquisitions of these units.
o An international transaction log ensures the secure transfer of emission reduction units between
countries.

What are the Indian Emission Targets?

 India submitted its updated NDCs under the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in August 2022, in which it stressed the fact that it is a step
ahead in achieving the long-term goal of Net Zero in 2070.
 Under the updated NDCs, India is committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its gross domestic
products by 45 % from 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving 50 % of its cumulative electric power
installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources of energy by 2030.
 The country is working on expanding its supply chain in the solar manufacturing division.

What are the Related Indian Initiatives?

 PLI Scheme:
o Diversification of the supply chain by introducing a production linked incentive scheme for
the manufacturing of polysilicon cells into modules.
 Clean Development Mechanism:
o In India, the clean development mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol provided a primary carbon
market for the players.
o The secondary carbon market is covered by the perform-achieve-trade scheme (which falls
under the energy efficiency category) and the renewable energy certificate.
 Energy Conservation (Amendment) Bill, 2022:
o Empowers the Centre to specify norms and standards of energy efficiency for appliances,
industrial equipment and buildings with a connected load over 100 kiloWatts (kW) or a
contractual demand of more than 120 kilovolt-amperes (kVA).

Way Forward

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 India is on the path to establishing a carbon market at the national level beginning with the voluntary
carbon market and then moving on to a compliance-based market.
 The effects of climate change reduction should be favorable to sectors such as renewable energy, energy
efficiency, transportation, waste, afforestation and reforestation.
 The carbon credits market favoured by appropriate regulations and policy will help in the creation of
suitable opportunities for the next decade.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM):

To combat climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has brought about a clean development mechanism.
This agreement between developed and developing countries seeks to reduce emissions to preserve the ozone
layer and strive for a cleaner environment.
Under this program, financially-reliant nations offer incentives towards developing countries to put into place
projects which reduce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, while at their own expense, they earn what
are called CER credits or Emission Reduction Units that are equivalent to 1 tonne of CO2.

Objectives of Clean Development Mechanism:

A clean development mechanism project must produce measurable improvements related to climate
change mitigation. The project should provide real, long-term benefits, and they should be able to reduce
greenhouse emissions in a material way. The objectives of a clean development mechanism are:
 Contribute to the halting and prevention of climate change.
 Assist developing countries in strategy development that is long-lasting.
 Assist industrialized countries in reducing emissions and transitioning to greener energy sources.
 Assist countries in implementing creative strategies for reducing emissions.
 Diminishing the reliance on fossil fuels.
 Employing animal excrement to create energy and actively managing it.
 Decreasing the amount of pollution produced during the manufacturing process.

Operating Details of Clean Development Mechanism in India:

Identification of the Project

This is the initial phase, and it entails conducting research to find a notion that has the capability to cut
greenhouse gas emissions.
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Approval From the Government
After the notion has been recognized, it is proposed to the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate
Change for approval by the Indian government.
Development of the Project
Research is being conducted to establish a baseline against which the shift in emissions will be monitored in
accordance with the Kyoto Protocol.
Authentication
The CDM Administrative Entity appoints an impartial body to verify the results of the preliminary
identification survey.
Registration Process
Formal approval by the governing council transforms the selected project into a CDM project, granting it all
the financial and legal amenities provided by the Kyoto Protocol.
Tracking
Following registration, variations in greenhouse gas emissions are tracked over time, and appropriate
improvements to the project’s execution are made.
Verification
A team of specialists verifies all of the data and results before sending them to be certified.
Certification
After thorough verification, the supervising authority acknowledges that the project has effectively decreased
emissions in accordance with the plan.

CDM - Significance
 It assists developed countries in meeting their pledges to reduce emissions.
 It helps developing countries achieve long-term development.
 CDM projects generate tradable, saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, which can be
used by industrialised countries to meet a portion of their Kyoto Protocol emission reduction targets.
 CDM projects provide other benefits such as:
o investment in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries;
o technology transfer or diffusion in host countries; and
o improved community livelihoods through job creation or increased economic activity.

CDM – Challenges

 Carbon Leakage: In theory, crediting methods could lessen leakage. In reality, the baseline against
which credits are awarded is defined, and this influences the amount of leakage in part.
 Additionality, Transaction Costs & Bottlenecks: The Kyoto Protocol's environmental efficacy requires
additional emission reductions from the CDM.
 The CDM is essentially a transfer of income to non-Annex I nations without any additionality.
However, additionality is a tough concept to demonstrate and is hotly contested.
 CDM project approval has experienced delays (bottlenecks) due to additionality assessment.
 Incentives: The CDM does not penalize increased emissions, but it does reward them. As a result, it is
almost like a subsidy for carbon reduction.
 As a result, businesses may have a perverse incentive to increase their emissions in the short term in
order to qualify for credits for long-term emission reductions.
 Local Resistance: According to some civil society organizations, the majority of CDM projects benefit
large corporations while harming marginalized individuals.
 A grassroots campaign of waste pickers began to oppose a CDM project in New Delhi in 2012.
 A CDM project in Panama in 2012 prevented the Panamanian government and the indigenous Ngöbe-

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Buglé people from reaching a peace agreement.
 Market Deflation: The largest carbon market and the source of the majority of the demand for CERs
from the CDM is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.
 The market price for CERs dropped by approximately 70% in a year, to a new record low of €2.67 per
tonne, in July 2012.
 The low CER price was linked by analysts to the excess of EU emissions allowances, reduced pricing
for EU emissions allowances, and the weakening European economy.

The Kyoto Protocol:

The Kyoto Protocol, the first international treaty to set legally binding targets to cut greenhouse gas
emissions, was adopted 25 years ago, on 11 December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan. The agreement, which entered
into force in 2005 and was ratified by 192 Parties, has since been superseded by the Paris Agreement but
remains a historic landmark in the international fight against climate change. Read here to learn more about
the agreement.
The Kyoto Protocol was an agreement among developed nations to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions and greenhouse gases (GHG) to minimize the impacts of climate change.
The Protocol applied to 6 greenhouse gases:
1. carbon dioxide
2. methane
3. nitrous oxide
4. hydrofluorocarbons
5. perfluorocarbons
6. sulfur hexafluoride.
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted on 11 December 1997.
Due to a complex ratification process, it entered into force on 16 February 2005. Currently, there are 192
Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.

The Protocol also offers them an additional means to meet their targets by way of three market-based
mechanisms:
 International Emissions Trading: countries that emit less than they are allowed to can sell this
amount to industrialized countries that produce more than they should. In this way, it becomes
economically beneficial to reduce emissions.
 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
 Joint implementation (JI): With both CDM and JI countries can invest in an emission-reducing
project and gain credit points.

India and Kyoto Protocol

 India was exempted from obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the law.
 India placed special emphasis on the differences in the burden of duty for climate action between
industrialized and developing countries.
 India was able to uphold its responsibility for socioeconomic growth while simultaneously pressuring
other industrialized nations in the Annex I category to shoulder greater responsibility for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.
 India has ratified the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol or the Doha Amendment to
meet the emission targets for the period 2012-2020.
 India was the 80th country to accept the amendment.

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India and the Doha Amendment

Parties to the Kyoto Protocol adopted an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol by decision in accordance
with Articles 20 and 21 of the Kyoto Protocol, at the eighth session of the Conference of the Parties serving
as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) held in Doha, Qatar, on 8 December 2012.
As of 28 October 2020, 147 Parties have deposited their instrument of acceptance, therefore the threshold for
entry into force of the Doha Amendment has been met.
1. India has ratified the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol i.e. meet the emission targets
for the time period 2012-2020.
2. India was the 80th country to accept the amendment.

Inter governmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

 The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a United Nations intergovernmental group tasked
with expanding knowledge on human-caused climate change.
 It is the international body in charge of evaluating climate change science.
 The IPCC was created to offer policymakers with periodical evaluations of the scientific foundation of
climate change.
 IPCC assessments offer a scientific foundation for governments at all levels to establish climate-related
policies, and they serve as the foundation for talks at the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).
 The IPCC creates comprehensive Assessment Reports on the current state of scientific, technological,
and socioeconomic knowledge about climate change, its consequences and future dangers, and
alternatives for slowing the rate of climate change.
 It also publishes Special Reports on issues agreed upon by its member states, as well as Methodology
Reports that give guidance for greenhouse gas inventories.
 The IPCC is a globally recognised authority on climate change, and its findings are largely accepted by
top climate scientists and governments.
 Its studies are crucial to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), with the Fifth Assessment Report strongly influencing the historic Paris Agreement in
2015.
 The IPCC and Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their contributions to human
understanding of climate change.

Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change – Functions

 The IPCC's core function is the production of reports evaluating the state of knowledge about climate
change.
 Assessment reports, special reports, and methodological reports are examples of these.
 The IPCC holds meetings of its government representatives to approve, adopt, and accept reports,
which are held as plenary sessions of the Panel or IPCC Working Groups.
 The IPCC Plenary Sessions also set the IPCC work program and other matters, such as its budget and
report outlines.
 The IPCC Bureau meets on a regular basis to advise the Panel on scientific and technical elements of
its work.
 To develop reports, the IPCC arranges expert scoping sessions and leads author meetings.
 To complement its work program, it arranges expert meetings and seminars on a variety of issues and
publishes the outcomes of these gatherings.

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 The IPCC participates in outreach initiatives produced by the IPCC or hosted by other organizations
to share its results and explain its work, and also offers speakers at other conferences.
 Special Reports have been prepared on a variety of topics, including aviation, regional climate change
impacts, technology transfer, emission scenarios, land use, land use change, and forestry, carbon
dioxide capture and storage, and the relationship between ozone protection and the global climate
system.
 The IPCC also has a Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories whose primary goal is to
develop and improve a methodology for calculating and reporting national greenhouse gas emissions
and removals.

IPCC Latest Report on India

Indian scientists who were part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) panel said
that despite India not being a major contributor to global climate change in the past decades, India is facing
the highest risk from climate change impacts. 

Risks of Climate Change:

 Since the industrial revolution, for centuries, there has been unsustainable use of land and energy along
with the burning of fossil fuels which has led to the rise of average global temperature by around 1.1°
Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This has resulted in global warming.
 Though India is not a major contributor to global warming, the impact is expected to be severe
with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
 India is expected to face extreme heat and the focus needs to be on appropriate energy transition
strategies according to experts.
 Severe or extreme heat is also going to result in water stress in India and India must have appropriate
water management policies.
 Intensifying global warming is expected to bring in more extreme weather events like frequent heat
waves, unpredictable and heavy rainfall and consequent food insecurity and water insecurity.
 Experts are worried as they are certain that the 1.5°C target will be breached by the middle of the next
decade if the world fails to take rapid measures to limit global temperature rise.
 One of the IPCC panel members also highlighted the land subsidence at Joshimath and called for a new
model of development.

Measures Needed:
 According to experts, mitigation and adaptation are important measures that need equal focus in
funding. India must look for diverse sources of funding apart from funding from developed countries.
 There is a need for better global cooperation between the public and private sectors in climate
finance and more support must be extended to developing countries.
 Panel members also opined that apart from loans, climate funding must also include grants, bonds,
equity, financial guarantee, etc.
 Urban redistributive policies and a focus on the decarbonising energy sector are important measures
needed. Some of the ways to decarbonise the energy sector are to reduce the demand for fuel and
the creation of infrastructure that gives more space for public transport, cyclists and pedestrians.

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and India

 According to the second edition of the IPCC report, India would suffer greatly if emissions are not cut.
 If emissions continue, India would experience food and water scarcity, heat nearing human survival
limits, substantial economic destruction, and rising sea levels.
 According to the IPCC assessment, approximately 3.5 billion people, or 45 percent of the world
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population, live in climate-vulnerable areas.
 The ability of humans and natural ecosystems to adapt is also being challenged, according to the
research, and rises in global warming will make it more difficult for them to adapt.
 Wet-bulb temperatures (which combine humidity and heat) will rise in India, potentially exceeding
the unsurvivable threshold of 35 degrees Celsius.
 Because of its nearly 7000 km coastline, India will face significant dangers from increasing sea levels.
 Furthermore, the Indian Ocean is warming faster than the rest of the world.
 Coastal flooding will affect around 28.6 million people in the port cities of Kochi, Kolkata, Chennai,
Surat, Visakhapatnam, and Mumbai.
 Retreating snowlines can affect precipitation patterns, the water cycle, increasing floods, and water
scarcity in states across the Himalayas.
 Summer and yearly monsoon rains are both anticipated to rise.

IPCC – Recommendations

 Countries should aim for zero net emissions by 2050.

 GHG emissions must be drastically reduced in this decade (2021-30).
 New coal facilities, as well as fossil fuel exploration and development, should be prohibited.
 Governments, corporations, and investors should all work together to achieve a low-carbon future.
 When determining net zero, cumulative emissions should be included.
 Technology should be created to produce negative emissions, which means that the earth should be
cooled.
 This can be accomplished by sucking or sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, ceasing the use
of fossil fuels, and halting deforestation.
 Global emissions must peak somewhere in the middle of this decade in order to stay below the 2°C
goal for this century (by 2025).

Climate sensitivity:

Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will cool or warm after a specified factor
causes a change in its climate system, such as how much it will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. 
In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in
response to a radioactive forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing
energy. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, and a focus area for climate scientists, who
want to understand the ultimate consequences of anthropogenic global warming.
The Earth's surface warms as a direct consequence of increased atmospheric CO 2, as well as increased
concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and methane. The increasing temperatures
have secondary effects on the climate system, such as an increase in atmospheric water vapour, which is itself
also a greenhouse gas. Scientists do not know exactly how strong the climate feedbacks are and it is difficult
to predict the precise amount of warming that will result from a given increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Measures:
Depending on the time scale, there are two main ways to define climate sensitivity: the short-
term transient climate response (TCR) and the long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), both of
which incorporate the warming from exacerbating feedback loops. They are not discrete categories, but they
overlap. Sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 increases is measured in the amount of temperature change for
doubling in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

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Transient climate response

The transient climate response (TCR) is defined as "the change in the global mean surface temperature,
averaged over a 20-year period, centered at the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, in a climate
model simulation" in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases at 1% per year. That estimate is
generated by using shorter-term simulations.

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the long-term temperature rise (equilibrium global mean
near-surface air temperature) that is expected to result from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
It is a prediction of the new global mean near-surface air temperature once the CO2 concentration has stopped
increasing, and most of the feedbacks have had time to have their full effect. 

How can we estimate climate sensitivity?

Climate sensitivity cannot be directly measured in the real world. Instead it must be estimated and there are
three main lines of evidence that can be used to do this:
1. Historical climate records: instrumental records of warming since the mid-19th century, combined
with estimates of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, can be used to assess the global temperature
response to emissions of CO2 by human activities to date.
2. Climate models: we can use climate models, which provide complex simulations of the Earth’s
climate system, to predict future climate sensitivity as we don’t have observations for the future
climate. These mathematical models are built around our understanding of the physics which underpin
our climate system.
3. Palaeoclimate records: ice cores and other records can be used to estimate natural changes in
temperature and atmospheric CO2 over thousands of years. These can be used for estimates of the past
relationship between the two factors.

Montreal Protocol:
Montreal Protocol is an essential Multilateral agreement that is introduced concerning the Depleting ozone
layer. There are many man-made substances and chemicals that are known as ozone-depleting substances
(ODS). The Montreal Protocol agreement regulates the production, consumption, and emission of such
substances that are responsible for ozone depletion in the stratosphere. Initially, the agreement was called the
Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone Layer.

Montreal Protocol - Outcomes

 The Montreal Protocol has been mostly effective in fulfilling its goal of repairing the damage done to
the ozone layer owing to universal ratification and a time-bound contractual framework.
 It has been regarded as the most effective international environmental measure implemented by
nations.
 The most significant chlorofluorocarbons and associated chlorinated hydrocarbons have seen their
atmospheric concentrations level off or decrease thanks to the Protocol.
 Halon concentrations have increased, but their rate of increase has decreased, and by 2020, their
concentration is predicted to diminish.
 The Protocol has been successful in communicating with the worldwide market clearly.
 Over 280 million cases of skin cancer, nearly 1.6 million skin cancer deaths, and millions of cataract

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cases are anticipated to be avoided with the complete implementation of the Montreal Protocol.
 By 2050, the ozone layer is anticipated to recover thanks to the Protocol.
 Compared to 1990 levels, Parties to the Protocol have been able to phase out 98 percent of ODSs.
 Since the majority of ODSs are also greenhouse gases, the Protocol also aids in the fight against global
warming.
 The protocol is thought to have contributed to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 135 gigatons
of carbon dioxide, or 11 gigatons per year, between 1990 and 2010.
 A Protocol amendment known as the Kigali Amendment has assisted in reducing HFC emissions and
the rise in global temperatures.

Montreal Protocol and India

 In 1992, India formally ratified the Montreal Protocol. Due to its position as an Article 5 nation, India
is entitled to support from the Multilateral Fund as it transitions away from ODSs and toward non-ODS
technologies.
 Of the 20 chemicals regulated by the Protocol, India produced and used 7 primarily. They are Methyl
Chloroform, Methyl Bromide, Carbon Tetrachloride, Halon-1301, Halon-1211, CFC-11, CFC113, and
CFC-12.
 The Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change is in charge of carrying out the Montreal
Protocol in India.
 To carry out the Protocol, the Ministry created the Ozone Cell.
 The Ministry has published the Ozone Depleting Substances (Regulation and Control) Rules 2000 in
accordance with the National Strategy for ODS Phaseout.
 CFCs are forbidden from being used in the production of many products.
 They mandate the registration of ODS vendors, importers, stockists, and producers.

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

(UNFCCC):

Basic and Background

 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) is an international

environmental treaty which seeks to reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, with the
aim of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the earth’s climate system.
 The UNFCCC, signed in 1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development also known as the Earth Summit, the Rio Summit or the Rio Conference
 It is a framework which requires individual participating countries to commit to stabilizing greenhouse
gas emissions.
 There are 197 parties to the convention, who meet annually in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to
assess progress in dealing with climate change.

Objective

 According to Article 2, the Convention’s ultimate objective is “to achieve, stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system”.
 This objective is qualified in that it “should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner”.
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Structure

1. The Conference of the Parties (COP)

o Article 7.2 defines the COP as the “supreme body” of the Convention, as it is its highest
decision-making authority.
o The climate change process revolves around the annual sessions of the COP.
2. COP President and Bureau
o The office of the COP President normally rotates among the five United Nations regional
groups. The President is usually the environment minister of his or her home country. S/he is
elected by acclamation immediately after the opening of a COP session. Their role is to
facilitate the work of the COP and promote agreements among Parties.
o The work of the COP and each subsidiary body is guided by an elected Bureau. To ensure
continuity, it serves not only during sessions, but between sessions as well.
3. Subsidiary Bodies (SBs)
o The Convention establishes two permanent subsidiary bodies (SBs), namely the Subsidiary
Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), by Article 9, and the Subsidiary Body
for Implementation (SBI), by Article 10. These bodies advise the COP.
o The SBSTA’s task is to provide the COP “with timely advice on scientific and technological
matters relating to the Convention”.
o The SBI’s task is to assist the COP “in the assessment and review of the effective
implementation of the Convention”
4. The Secretariat
o The secretariat, also known as the Climate Change Secretariat, services the COP, the SBs, the
Bureau and other bodies established by the COP.
5. Other Bodies
o Other bodies have been set up by the COP to undertake specific tasks. These bodies report back
to the COP when they complete their work
o COP 1 established two ad hoc groups to conduct negotiations on specific issues.
o COP 11 established the “Dialogue” to exchange experiences and analyse strategic approaches
for long-term cooperative action to address climate change.

India’s stance

 India played a mixed role at the recently concluded 25th Conference of Parties (CoP 25) to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Madrid.
 On the question of markets, India emphasised the transition of the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) credits earned under the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement.
 Pointed out that that excessively cheap emissions reductions enabled by the CDM as well as the
possibility of double counting could corrupt the process.
 India played a strong role in critiquing the developed world’s continuing poor record on climate action.
 It argued that unless a stocktaking exercise of the fulfilment of various pre-2020 commitments by
developed countries, India would not raise its climate ambition for its next round of Paris Agreement
targets due in 2020.
 India also took a lead in calling for more finance for developing countries for climate action.

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Limitations of UNFCCC

 Non-inclusive: Most scientists agree the most dangerous environmental air pollutants today are
microscopic particulates that come from car engines and combustion-based power plants, but these
pollutants are largely ignored by the Kyoto Protocol.
 Slow progress: It took a long time for COP to bring Russia to agree into participating in the Kyoto
Protocol. (until 2005)
 UNFCCC failed to persuade USA to ratify the Kyoto protocol thereby keeping one of the largest
emitter of greenhouse gases away from commitments.
 Unsustainable targets: The world reached at almost 1degree Celsius warming post industrialization
and the Paris contributions are not enough to maintain 2 degree Celsius levels.
 Unsatisfactory Response: Many countries argued for a tougher target of 1.5C – including leaders of
low-lying countries that face unsustainable sea levels rises in a warming world.
 Financial Constraints: The agreement requires rich nations to maintain a $100bn a year funding
pledge beyond 2020, which is not enough as highlighted by several pacific island countries.
 Non-binding agreement: The US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris climate agreement, citing, that the
deal punished” the US and would cost millions of American jobs”, has created new barriers and more
pressure on rest of the nations in achieving the targets of Paris agreement.
 No enforcement mechanism: Under the Paris agreement, each country determines, plans, and reports
its own efforts to mitigate global warming. The only penalty for non-compliance is a so-called “name
and shame” — or “name and encourage” — system whereby countries that fall out of compliance are
called out and encouraged to improve.

Way Forward
 Adaptation is increasingly becoming central to efforts on mitigating the climate change impacts.
 A greater readiness on the part of all nations is required to take forward the goals on mitigation.
 Countries have to compromise on their erstwhile hard positions, to make progress in reducing
emissions and building climate resilience.
 It is entirely appropriate for countries such as India to insist on not taking on an even more unfair share
of the global mitigation burden unless developed countries deliver on the minimal parameter of
fulfilling their existing promises.
 It is crucial that India continue to push developed countries in this fashion as the entire global climate
action framework has been put in jeopardy by the inaction of big polluters.

Global change in temperature:

Scientists agree that the earth’s rising temperatures are fueling longer and hotter heat waves, more
frequent droughts, heavier rainfall, and more powerful hurricanes.
The impacts of global warming are being felt everywhere.
 Extreme heat waves have caused tens of thousands of deaths around the world in recent years.
 Antarctica has lost nearly four trillion metric tons of ice since the 1990s.

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 It is causing the permafrost to thaw in the Arctic region.

The rate of loss could speed up if we keep burning fossil fuels at our current pace, some experts say,
causing sea levels to rise several meters in the next 50 to 150 years and wreaking havoc on coastal
communities worldwide.
The earth’s ocean temperatures are getting warmer, so tropical storms can pick up more energy.
In other words, global warming can turn a category 3 storm into a more dangerous category 4 storm.
 Scientists have found that the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has increased since the early
1980s, as has the number of storms that reach categories 4 and 5.

Climate Changes within India:

The effect of climate change has recently been seen in some cities of India like Delhi, Hyderabad, and
especially Chennai where the city was facing a water crisis and was relying on alternative water sources such
as distant, unreliable public water pumps, and costly private water tankers. 

Evidence For Rapid Climate Change In India

 Global Temperature Rise: The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees
Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased
carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in
the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010.
 Warming Oceans: The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters
(about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.
 Shrinking Ice Sheets: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from
NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 286 billion
tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per year
during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.
 Glacial Retreat: Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps,
Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa.
 Decreased Snow Cover: Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the
Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier.
 Sea Level Rise: Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two
decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
 Declining Arctic Sea Ice: Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the
last several decades.
 Extreme Events: The number of record high-temperature events in the United States has been
increasing, while the number of record low-temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The
U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.
 Ocean Acidification: Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean
waters has increased by about 30 percent. This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon

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dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year.

Climate Fragility Risks in India

“A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks”, an independent report
commissioned by members of the G7, identifies seven compound climate-fragility risks that pose serious
threats to the stability of states and societies in the decades ahead:
 Local resource competition: As the pressure on natural resources increases, competition can lead to
instability and even violent conflict in the absence of effective dispute resolution.
 Livelihood insecurity and migration: Climate changes will increase the human insecurity of people
who depend on natural resources for their livelihoods, which could push them to migrate or turn to
illegal sources of income.
 Extreme weather events and disasters: Extreme weather events and disasters will exacerbate
fragility challenges and can increase people’s vulnerability and grievances, especially in conflict-
affected situations.
 Volatile food prices and provision: Climate change is highly likely to disrupt food production in
many regions, increasing prices and market volatility, and heightening the risk of protests, rioting, and
civil conflict.
 Transboundary water management: Transboundary waters are frequently a source of tension; as
demand grows and climate impacts affect availability and quality, competition over water use will
likely increase the pressure on existing governance structures.
 Sea-level rise and coastal degradation: Rising sea levels will threaten the viability of low-lying areas
even before they are submerged, leading to social disruption, displacement, and migration, while
disagreements over maritime boundaries and ocean resources may increase.
 Unintended effects of climate policies: As climate adaptation and mitigation policies are more
broadly implemented, the risks of unintended negative effects—particularly in fragile contexts—will
also increase.

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