BACHOCO

Integrantes
Montserrat Campos Flores
Erika Jaqueline San Juan Bautista
Ana Karen Badillo Cabello
Emili Vianey Mendoza Galvan

Materia: Economia Empresarial

Docente: Antonio Trejo Romo
 MILLONES (MN).
TOTALIDAD CONSOLIDADA.
CONSOLIDADOS

AÑOS (X IT (VENTAS IT(VENTAS UN (UTILIDAD

TRIMESTRE). TOTALES). MEXICO). NETA).
2016/I $ 11,839.3 $ 8,821.5 $ 1,596.9
2016/II $ 11,837.2 $ 9,123.9 $ 1,580.0
2016/III $ 12,612.3 $ 9,436.0 $ 809.7
2016/IV $ 14,206.6 $ 10,266.9 $ 976.4
2017/I $ 13,684.9 $ 9,949.3 $ 652.8
2017/II $ 15,116.3 $ 11,386.6 $ 1,722.8
2017/III $ 14,216.2 $ 9,918.5 $ 997.9
2017/IV $ 15,039.1 $ 10,268.4 $ 1,475.5
2018/I $ 15,303.0 $ 11,091.5 $ 1,260.9
2018/II $ 16,213.6 $ 11,553.9 $ 576.9
2018/III $ 14,114.4 $ 9,865.0 $ 187.5
2018/IV $ 15,421.0 $ 10,942.2 $ 795.5
2019/I $ 14,323.6 $ 10,311.3 $ 302.5
2019/II $ 16,884.1 $ 12,537.4 $ 1,591.9
2019/III $ 15,312.9 $ 10,981.4 $ 1,113.1
2019/IV $ 15,138.0 $ 10,911.5 $ 160.8
2020/I $ 15,738.4 $ 11,067.6 $ 2,170.2
2020/II $ 16,431.9 $ 11,339.9 $ 228.2
2020/III $ 18,292.4 $ 13,114.4 $ 1,858.1
2020/IV $ 18,328.6 $ 13,780.5 $ 720.3
2021/I $ 19,357.6 $ 14,629.4 $ 2,074.6
2021/II $ 20,860.9 $ 15,937.6 $ 1,443.2
2021/III $ 20,229.0 $ 14,973.8 $ 817.4
2021/IV $ 21,251.5 $ 15,937.3 $ 610.2
2022/I $ 24,367.0 $ 18,096.4 $ 1,128.0
2022/II $ 26,432.1 $ 19,839.8 $ 134.7
2022/III $ 24,457.8 $ 17,982.7 $ 1,962.4
2022/IV 23633.8 17734.3 0.75037869492

Consolidadas MEX
Periodo Ventas(IT) Factor
2015/I 11406 8644.7 75.79%
2015/II 11837.2 9123.9 77.08%
2015/III 11335.6 8551.8 75.44%
2015/IV 11650.2 8805.4 75.58%
2016/I 11839.30 8821.5 74.510%
2016/II 11837.2 9123.9 77.078%
2016/III 12612.3 9436 74.816%
2016/IV 14206.6 10266.9 72.269%
2017/I 13684.9 9949.3 72.703%
2017/II 15116.3 11386.6 75.327%
2017/III 14216.2 9918.5 69.769%
2017/IV 15039.1 10268.4 68.278%
2018/I 15303 11091.5 72.479%
2018/II 16213.6 11553.9 71.261%
2018/III 14114.4 9865 69.893%
2018/IV 15421 10942.2 70.956%
2019/I 14323.6 10311.3 71.988%
2019/II 16884.1 12537.4 74.256%
2019/III 15312.9 10981.4 71.713%
2019/IV 15138 10911.5 72.080%
2020/I 15738.4 11067.6 70.322%
2020/II 16431.9 11339.9 69.011%
2020/III 18292.4 13114.4 71.693%
2020/IV 18328.6 13780.5 75.186%
2021/I 19357.6 14629.4 75.574%
2021/II 20860.9 15937.6 76.399%
2021/III 20229 14973.8 74.021%
2021/IV 21251.5 15937.3 74.994%
2022/I 24367 18096.4 74.266%
2022/II 26432.1 19839.8 75.059%
2022/III 24457.8 17982.7 73.525%
2022/IV 23633.8 17734.3 75.038%
).
TOTALIDAD CONSOLIDADA.
% CONSOLIDADA.
POLLO.
UO (UTILIDAD DE
FACTOR. IT(CONSOLIDADO) IT(VENTAS MEXICO).
OPERACIÓN).
$ 696.3 74.51% 11839.30 8821.50
$ 2,091.6 77.08% 13362.10 10299.27
$ 992.5 74.82% 12612.30 9436.00
$ 1,052.7 72.27% 14206.60 10266.90
$ 929.8 72.70% 13684.90 9949.30
$ 2,330.0 75.33% 15116.30 11386.60
$ 1,160.9 69.77% 14216.20 9918.50
$ 765.6 68.28% 15039.10 10268.40
$ 1,822.5 72.48% 15303.00 11091.50
$ 1,656.4 71.26% 16213.60 11553.90
$ 260.5 69.89% 14114.40 9865.00
$ 588.5 70.96% 15424.00 10944.33
$ 335.2 71.99% 14323.60 10311.30
$ 2,163.8 74.26% 16884.10 12537.40
$ 1,181.8 71.71% 13879.00 9953.10
$ 242.1 72.08% 13661.20 9847.02
$ 604.0 70.32% 14162.80 9959.60
$ 82.8 69.01% 14796.30 10211.15
$ 1,484.8 71.69% 16226.60 11633.36
$ 2,110.5 75.19% 16173.40 12160.10
$ 2,559.0 75.57% 16983.90 12835.49
$ 2,088.8 76.40% 18170.50 13882.15
$ 738.4 74.02% 17765.70 13150.43
$ 509.5 74.99% 18598.10 13947.42
$ 3,142.2 74.27% 20876.20 15503.92
$ 3,831.0 75.06% 22605.90 16967.87
$ 1,131.2 73.53% 20890.80 15360.05
20000.6 15008.0241256167

Consolidadas MEX Consolidadas MEX

 IT(Pollos) QX(Toneladas de Pollo)
10445.3 7916.57767052429 387695 293837.18801508
10703.9 8250.37282549927 392749 302723.83681107
10252.4 7734.61257630827 403185 304170.708475952
10395.4 7857.00289780433 429808 324855.484300699
10,644.50 7931.251 411,459 306579.407
12067.7 9301.565 403217 310792.382
11348.1 8490.178 411710 308024.354
12734.2 9202.818 442246 319604.653
12286.6 8932.697 419219 304783.783
13662.8 10291.727 420604 316826.836
12970.1 9049.109 422278 294619.121
13559.9 9258.431 461653 315207.537
13774.5 9983.655 15303 11091.500
14731.9 10498.032 551287 392850.130
12844.7 8977.567 539823 377299.346
13972.8 9914.608 568379.8 403302.344
12852.8 9252.498 425745 306486.108
15259.2 11330.820 436570 324177.938
13879.8 9953.675 424645 304527.333
13661.2 9847.020 452487.2 326153.659
14162.8 9959.602 457167 321490.208
14796.3 10211.148 433484 299153.793
16226.6 11633.363 434272 311343.329
16138.1 12133.556 447605 336535.289
16983.9 12835.489 416978 315128.836
18170.5 13882.151 441486 337292.604
17765.7 13150.430 442665 327667.071
18727.7 14044.607 467942 350927.324
20876.2 15503.922 441036 327539.864
22605.9 16967.874 437723 328552.660
20890.8 15360.048 433861 318998.119
20000.6 15008.024 452003 339173.421
POLLO. Y
AÑOS (X
UN UO IT (VENTAS TOTALES).
TRIMESTRE).
$ 1,189.9 $ 518.8 2016/I $ 12,839.3
$ 1,217.8 $ 1,612.2 2016/II $ 13,362.1
$ 605.8 $ 742.5 2016/III $ 14,612.3
$ 705.6 $ 760.8 2016/IV $ 14,206.6
$ 474.6 $ 676.0 2017/I $ 13,674.9
$ 1,297.7 $ 1,755.1 2017/II $ 10,316.3
$ 696.2 $ 809.9 2017/III $ 14,216.2
$ 1,007.4 $ 522.7 2017/IV $ 15,039.1
$ 913.9 $ 1,320.9 2018/I $ 18,900.0
$ 411.1 $ 1,180.4 2018/II $ 16,213.6
$ 131.0 $ 182.1 2018/III $ 17,114.4
$ 564.5 $ 417.6 2018/IV $ 15,421.0
$ 217.8 $ 241.3 2019/I $ 18,323.6
$ 1,182.1 $ 1,606.7 2019/II $ 14,884.1
$ 798.2 $ 847.5 2019/III $ 18,312.9
$ 115.9 $ 174.5 2019/IV $ 21,138.0
$ 1,526.1 $ 424.7 2020/I $ 20,138.4
$ 157.5 $ 57.1 2020/II $ 21,431.9
$ 1,332.1 $ 1,064.5 2020/III $ 20,292.4
$ 541.6 $ 1,586.8 2020/IV $ 20,328.6
$ 1,567.9 $ 1,934.0 2021/I $ 20,500.6
$ 1,102.6 $ 1,595.8 2021/II $ 20,860.9
$ 605.1 $ 546.6 2021/III $ 21,619.0
$ 457.6 $ 382.1 2021/IV $ 21,251.5
$ 837.7 $ 2,333.6 2022/I $ 24,367.0
$ 101.1 $ 2,875.5 2022/II $ 23,432.1
$ 1,442.9 $ 831.7 20202/III $ 24,457.8

MEX PX
Precio/Tonelada Precio/Tonelada
(millones) (Unidades)
0.0269420550 26942.0549658881
0.0272537931 27253.7931350557
0.0254285254 25428.5253667671
0.0241861482 24186.1482336299
0.0258701353 25870.1352990213
0.0299285496 29928.5496395241
0.0275633334 27563.3334142965
0.0287943814 28794.3814076329
0.0293083090 29308.3090222533
0.0324837614 32483.7614478227
0.0307146003 30714.6003343769
0.0293724941 29372.4940593909
0.9001176240 900117.623995295
0.0267227415 26722.7415121343
0.0237942807 23794.280717939
0.0245835619 24583.5619070206
0.0301889629 30188.9628768394
0.0349524704 34952.4703942094
0.0326856551 32685.6550765934
0.0301913513 30191.351269163
0.0309794889 30979.4888957427
0.0341334398 34133.4397578688
0.0373650615 37365.0615282588
0.0360543336 36054.3336200445
0.0407309259 40730.9258522032
0.0411575905 41157.590501171
0.0401335095 40133.509538816
0.0400214129 40021.412910147
0.0473344580 47334.4579580805
0.0516443047 51644.3047315311
0.0481509055 48150.905474334
0.0442488214 44248.8213573804
 X
UN r2

$ 265.7 0.801
$ 233.0
$ 135.0
$ 159.0 DIAGRAMA DE DISPERSIÓN
$ 103.6 $30,000.0
$ 333.5
$ 154.0 $25,000.0

$ 149.8 IT (VENTAS TOTALES).

$20,000.0 R² = 0.80088505132724
$ 79.6
$ 91.2 $15,000.0
$ 27.0 $10,000.0
$ 123.2
$ 32.6 $5,000.0
$ 138.1 $-
$ 67.2 $- $50.0 $100.0 $150.0 $200.0 $250.0 $300.0 $350.0 $400.0
$ 19.1 UN (UTILIDAD NETA).
$ 46.0
$ 22.6
$ 24.5
$ 41.4
$ 32.3
$ 13.6
$ 17.4
$ 4.3
$ 10.9
$ 0.9
$ 9.3
ÓN

0 $300.0 $350.0 $400.0

 Funcion Lineal
Y X
No. OBS(N) Periodo UN IT
1 2015/I
2 2015/II
3 2015/III
4 2015/IV
5 2016/I 411459.000 25870.135
6 2016/II 403217.000 29928.550
7 2016/III 411710.000 27563.333
8 2016/IV 442246.000 28794.381
9 2017/I 419219.000 29308.309
10 2017/II 420604.000 32483.761
11 2017/III 422278.000 30714.600
12 2017/IV 461653.000 29372.494
13 2018/I 15303.000 900117.624
14 2018/II 551287.000 26722.742
15 2018/III 539823.000 23794.281
16 2018/IV 568379.800 24583.562
17 2019/I 425745.000 30188.963
18 2019/II 436570.000 34952.470
19 2019/III 424645.000 32685.655
20 2019/IV 452487.200 30191.351
21 2020/I 457167.000 30979.489
22 2020/II 433484.000 34133.440
23 2020/III 434272.000 37365.062
24 2020/IV 447605.000 36054.334
25 2021/I 416978.000 40730.926
26 2021/II 441486.000 41157.591
27 2021/III 442665.000 40133.510
28 2021/IV 467942.000 40021.413
29 2022/I 441036.000 47334.458
30 2022/II 437723.000 51644.305
31 20202/III 433861.000 48150.905

-0.502 465071.775
0.048 8506.458
0.813 40985.429
108.576 25.000
182386792870.667 41995133755.621

Tc(α,GL)= 2.060
α= 5%
 GL= 25.000

Tp= b/σb= -10.420

Como: Tp cae en zona 1, se rechaza Ho.

Conclusión: El modelo lineal es estadísticamente significativo.
Y= ±a±b*X
Donde:
a= 465071.775
b= -0.502
X= Ventas(IT)
Y= Utilidad Neta(UN)
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
UN= 452.686 -0.020*IT

Y=(a)(Xb) LN(Y)=LN(a)+b*LN(X)
Y X LN(Y) LN(X)
Periodo UN IT UN IT
2016/I 411459.0 25870.1352990213 12.927 10.161
2016/II 403217.0 29928.5496395241 12.907 10.307
2016/III 411710.0 27563.3334142965 12.928 10.224
2016/IV 442246.0 28794.3814076329 13.000 10.268
2017/I 419219.0 29308.3090222533 12.946 10.286
2017/II 420604.0 32483.7614478227 12.949 10.388
2017/III 422278.0 30714.6003343769 12.953 10.332
2017/IV 461653.0 29372.4940593909 13.043 10.288
2018/I 15303.0 900117.623995295 9.636 13.710
2018/II 551287.0 26722.7415121343 13.220 10.193
2018/III 539823.0 23794.280717939 13.199 10.077
2018/IV 568379.8 24583.5619070206 13.251 10.110
2019/I 425745.0 30188.9628768394 12.962 10.315
2019/II 436570.0 34952.4703942094 12.987 10.462
 2019/III 424645.0 32685.6550765934 12.959 10.395
2019/IV 452487.2 30191.351269163 13.023 10.315
2020/I 457167.0 30979.4888957427 13.033 10.341
2020/II 433484.0 34133.4397578688 12.980 10.438
2020/III 434272.0 37365.0615282588 12.981 10.528
2020/IV 447605.0 36054.3336200445 13.012 10.493
2021/I 416978.0 40730.9258522032 12.941 10.615
2021/II 441486.0 41157.590501171 12.998 10.625
2021/III 442665.0 40133.509538816 13.001 10.600
2021/IV 467942.0 40021.412910147 13.056 10.597
2022/I 441036.0 47334.4579580805 12.997 10.765
2022/II 437723.0 51644.3047315311 12.989 10.852
20202/III 433861.0 48150.905474334 12.980 10.782

-0.941 22.802
0.056 0.594
0.918 0.191
279.810 25.000
10.230 0.914

Donde:
LN(a)= 22.802
a= 7.996E+09
b= -0.941
X= IT
Y= UN

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:

UN=(2.252*10 24)(IT -5.345)

LN(X)=X*
Y=±a±b*LN(X) Y=±a±(b)(X*)
Y X Y X*
Periodo UN IT UN IT
2016/I 411459 25870.1352990213 411459.000 10.161
2016/II 403217 29928.5496395241 403217.000 10.307
2016/III 411710 27563.3334142965 411710.000 10.224
2016/IV 442246 28794.3814076329 442246.000 10.268
2017/I 419219 29308.3090222533 419219.000 10.286
2017/II 420604 32483.7614478227 420604.000 10.388
2017/III 422278 30714.6003343769 422278.000 10.332
2017/IV 461653 29372.4940593909 461653.000 10.288
2018/I 15303 900117.623995295 15303.000 13.710
2018/II 551287 26722.7415121343 551287.000 10.193
2018/III 539823 23794.280717939 539823.000 10.077
2018/IV 568379.8 24583.5619070206 568379.800 10.110
2019/I 425745 30188.9628768394 425745.000 10.315
2019/II 436570 34952.4703942094 436570.000 10.462
2019/III 424645 32685.6550765934 424645.000 10.395
2019/IV 452487.2 30191.351269163 452487.200 10.315
2020/I 457167 30979.4888957427 457167.000 10.341
2020/II 433484 34133.4397578688 433484.000 10.438
2020/III 434272 37365.0615282588 434272.000 10.528
2020/IV 447605 36054.3336200445 447605.000 10.493
2021/I 416978 40730.9258522032 416978.000 10.615
2021/II 441486 41157.590501171 441486.000 10.625
2021/III 442665 40133.509538816 442665.000 10.600
2021/IV 467942 40021.412910147 467942.000 10.597
2022/I 441036 47334.4579580805 441036.000 10.765
2022/II 437723 51644.3047315311 437723.000 10.852
20202/III 433861 48150.905474334 433861.000 10.782

-126060.315 1760037.064
11912.629 125751.261
0.817 40472.956
111.980 25.000
### ###

Donde:
a= 1760037.064
b= -126060.315
X= IT
Y= UN

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:

UN= 3624.481-361.846*LN(IT)

Tc(α,GL)= 2.060
α= 5%
GL= 25.000
Zona
Tp= b/σb= -10.582 1

Y=e(±a±b*X) LN(Y)=±a±b*x
Y X LN(Y) X
Periodo UN IT UN IT
2016/I 411459 25870.1352990213 12.927 25870.135
2016/II 403217 29928.5496395241 12.907 29928.550
2016/III 411710 27563.3334142965 12.928 27563.333
2016/IV 442246 28794.3814076329 13.000 28794.381
 2017/I 419219 29308.3090222533 12.946 29308.309
2017/II 420604 32483.7614478227 12.949 32483.761
2017/III 422278 30714.6003343769 12.953 30714.600
2017/IV 461653 29372.4940593909 13.043 29372.494
2018/I 15303 900117.623995295 9.636 900117.624
2018/II 551287 26722.7415121343 13.220 26722.742
2018/III 539823 23794.280717939 13.199 23794.281
2018/IV 568379.8 24583.5619070206 13.251 24583.562
2019/I 425745 30188.9628768394 12.962 30188.963
2019/II 436570 34952.4703942094 12.987 34952.470
2019/III 424645 32685.6550765934 12.959 32685.655
2019/IV 452487.2 30191.351269163 13.023 30191.351
2020/I 457167 30979.4888957427 13.033 30979.489
2020/II 433484 34133.4397578688 12.980 34133.440
2020/III 434272 37365.0615282588 12.981 37365.062
2020/IV 447605 36054.3336200445 13.012 36054.334
2021/I 416978 40730.9258522032 12.941 40730.926
2021/II 441486 41157.590501171 12.998 41157.591
2021/III 442665 40133.509538816 13.001 40133.510
2021/IV 467942 40021.412910147 13.056 40021.413
2022/I 441036 47334.4579580805 12.997 47334.458
2022/II 437723 51644.3047315311 12.989 51644.305
20202/III 433861 48150.905474334 12.980 48150.905

-3.894E-06 13.141
0.000 0.017
0.984 0.083
1585.620 25.000
10.971 0.173

Tc(α,GL)=
α=
GL=
Tp= b/σb=
Y=e(±a±b*X)
Donde:
a= 13.141
b= -3.894E-06
X= IT
Y= UN
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
UN=e(9.522-3.165*10 -4*IT)

Y=±a±b*X±c*X2 Y=±a±b*X±c*W
Y X Y X
Periodo UN IT UN IT
2016/I 411459 25870.1352990213 411459.000 25870.135
2016/II 403217 29928.5496395241 403217.000 29928.550
2016/III 411710 27563.3334142965 411710.000 27563.333
2016/IV 442246 28794.3814076329 442246.000 28794.381
2017/I 419219 29308.3090222533 419219.000 29308.309
2017/II 420604 32483.7614478227 420604.000 32483.761
2017/III 422278 30714.6003343769 422278.000 30714.600
2017/IV 461653 29372.4940593909 461653.000 29372.494
2018/I 15303 900117.623995295 15303.000 900117.624
2018/II 551287 26722.7415121343 551287.000 26722.742
2018/III 539823 23794.280717939 539823.000 23794.281
2018/IV 568379.8 24583.5619070206 568379.800 24583.562
2019/I 425745 30188.9628768394 425745.000 30188.963
2019/II 436570 34952.4703942094 436570.000 34952.470
2019/III 424645 32685.6550765934 424645.000 32685.655
2019/IV 452487.2 30191.351269163 452487.200 30191.351
2020/I 457167 30979.4888957427 457167.000 30979.489
2020/II 433484 34133.4397578688 433484.000 34133.440
2020/III 434272 37365.0615282588 434272.000 37365.062
2020/IV 447605 36054.3336200445 447605.000 36054.334
2021/I 416978 40730.9258522032 416978.000 40730.926
2021/II 441486 41157.590501171 441486.000 41157.591
2021/III 442665 40133.509538816 442665.000 40133.510
2021/IV 467942 40021.412910147 467942.000 40021.413
2022/I 441036 47334.4579580805 441036.000 47334.458
2022/II 437723 51644.3047315311 437723.000 51644.305
20202/III 433861 48150.905474334 433861.000 48150.905
66110.283 66110.283

1.58E-06 -1.974
1.28E-06 1.190
0.824 40556.319
56.209 24.000
### ###

Tc(α,GL)=
α=
GL=
Tp1=b/σb=
Tp2=c/σc=

Y=±a±bX±cX2
Donde:
a=
b=
c=
 X=
Y=
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funció
UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10 -6

Y=±a±bX±cX2±dx3 Y=±a±bX±cW±dZ
Y X Y
Periodo UN IT UN
2016/I 411459 25870.1352990213 411459.000
2016/II 403217 29928.5496395241 403217.000
2016/III 411710 27563.3334142965 411710.000
2016/IV 442246 28794.3814076329 442246.000
2017/I 419219 29308.3090222533 419219.000
2017/II 420604 32483.7614478227 420604.000
2017/III 422278 30714.6003343769 422278.000
2017/IV 461653 29372.4940593909 461653.000
2018/I 15303 900117.623995295 15303.000
2018/II 551287 26722.7415121343 551287.000
2018/III 539823 23794.280717939 539823.000
2018/IV 568379.8 24583.5619070206 568379.800
2019/I 425745 30188.9628768394 425745.000
2019/II 436570 34952.4703942094 436570.000
2019/III 424645 32685.6550765934 424645.000
2019/IV 452487.2 30191.351269163 452487.200
2020/I 457167 30979.4888957427 457167.000
2020/II 433484 34133.4397578688 433484.000
2020/III 434272 37365.0615282588 434272.000
2020/IV 447605 36054.3336200445 447605.000
2021/I 416978 40730.9258522032 416978.000
2021/II 441486 41157.590501171 441486.000
2021/III 442665 40133.509538816 442665.000
2021/IV 467942 40021.412910147 467942.000
2022/I 441036 47334.4579580805 441036.000
2022/II 437723 51644.3047315311 437723.000
20202/III 433861 48150.905474334 433861.000

-3.5823E-10
1.4601E-10
0.861
47.316
###

Tc(α,GL)=

Tp1=b/σb=
Tp2=c/σc=
TP3=d/σd=

UN=1459.387-0.162*IT+6.00
 Ho:Y≠f(x)
Hi:Y=f(x)
-Tc Tc

α=5%,Probabilidad de rechazo de Ho.

(1-α)=95% Probabilidad de rechazo de Hi.

1 2 3
o anterior en la función Y:
o anterior en la función Y:
 2.060
5%
25.000 Zona
-39.820 1

o anterior en la función Y:

±a±b*X±c*W
W=X2
 IT2
669263900.39
895718083.53
759737348.91
829116400.65
858976977.74
1055194757.80
943386673.70
862743407.27
###
714104913.92
566167794.88
604351516.04
911373479.58
1221675186.66
1068352047.79
911517691.46
959728732.24
1165091709.70
1396147823.01
1299914972.79
1659008320.78
1693947255.86
1610698587.90
1601713491.32
2240550910.19
2667134211.20
2318509698.00
4370569528.83

513164.374
39758.601
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

2.064
5%
24.000 Zonas
-1.659 1
1.238 3

=±a±bX±cX2

513164.374
-1.974
1.578E-06
 IT
UN
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10 -6*IT2

Y=±a±bX±cW±dZ
X W Z
IT IT2 IT3
25870.135 669263900.4 1.73E+13
29928.550 895718083.5 2.68E+13
27563.333 759737348.9 2.09E+13
28794.381 829116400.6 2.39E+13
29308.309 858976977.7 2.52E+13
32483.761 1055194758 3.43E+13
30714.600 943386673.7 2.90E+13
29372.494 862743407.3 2.53E+13
900117.624 8.10212E+11 7.29E+17
26722.742 714104913.9 1.91E+13
23794.281 566167794.9 1.35E+13
24583.562 604351516 1.49E+13
30188.963 911373479.6 2.75E+13
34952.470 1221675187 4.27E+13
32685.655 1068352048 3.49E+13
30191.351 911517691.5 2.75E+13
30979.489 959728732.2 2.97E+13
34133.440 1165091710 3.98E+13
37365.062 1396147823 5.22E+13
36054.334 1299914973 4.69E+13
40730.926 1659008321 6.76E+13
41157.591 1693947256 6.97E+13
40133.510 1610698588 6.46E+13
40021.413 1601713491 6.41E+13
47334.458 2240550910 1.06E+14
51644.305 2667134211 1.38E+14
48150.905 2318509698 1.12E+14

3.5047E-04 -26.237 932583.423

1.4221E-04 9.948 174732.157
36882.434 #N/A #N/A
23.000 #N/A #N/A
### #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 2.069
α= 5%
GL= 23.000 Zonas
Tp1=b/σb= -2.637 1
Tp2=c/σc= 2.464 2
TP3=d/σd= -2.453 2
Como: la Tp2 y Tp3 caen en zona 2 el modelo no es significativo

Y=±a±bX±cX2±dX3
Donde:
a= 932583.423
b= -26.237
c= 3.505E-04
d= -3.582E-10
X= IT
Y= UN
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
UN=1459.387-0.162*IT+6.007*10 -6*IT2-7.404*10-11*IT3
 Principio de Maxima Verosimilitud(PMV)

Función r2 Significancia
Lineal 0.813 Zona 1
Doble-log 0.918
SEM(X) 0.817 Zona 1
SEM(Y) 0.984 Zona 1
Cuadrática 0.824 Zona 1 y 3 Se cumple con PMV UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10 -6*IT2
Cúbica 0.861 Zona 1,2 y 2
 Millones (MN) Unidades
Periodo IT( Ventas) Q(Toneladas de pollo) D1(II) D2(III)

Y X1 X2 X3

2016/I 25870.1352990213 411459.000 0 0

2016/II 29928.5496395241 403217.000 1 0
2016/III 27563.3334142965 411710.000 0 1
2016/IV 28794.3814076329 442246.000 0 0
2017/I 29308.3090222533 419219.000 0 0
2017/II 32483.7614478227 420604.000 1 0
2017/III 30714.6003343769 422278.000 0 1
2017/IV 29372.4940593909 461653.000 0 0
2018/I 900117.623995295 422181.000 0 0
2018/II 26722.7415121343 431315.000 1 0
2018/III 23794.280717939 441135.000 0 1
2018/IV 24583.5619070206 458298.000 0 0
2019/I 30188.9628768394 425745.000 0 0
2019/II 34952.4703942094 436570.000 1 0
2019/III 32685.6550765934 424645.000 0 1
2019/IV 30191.351269163 452487.200 0 0
2020/I 30979.4888957427 457167.000 0 0
2020/II 34133.4397578688 433484.000 1 0
2020/III 37365.0615282588 434272.000 0 1
2020/IV 36054.3336200445 447604.700 0 0
2021/I 40730.9258522032 416978.000 0 0
2021/II 41157.590501171 441486.000 1 0
2021/III 40133.509538816 442665.000 0 1
2021/IV 40021.412910147 467942.000 0 0
2022/I 47334.4579580805 441036.000 0 0
2022/II 51644.3047315311 437723.000 1 0
2022/III 48150.905474334 433861.000 0 1
2022/IV 23,633.80 452003.000 0 0

-99318.096 -120944.442 -120347.290 -1.044

115304.021 89411.579 89269.326 2.715
0.118 166829.917 #N/A #N/A
0.766 23.000 #N/A #N/A
85289213693.568 640141086005.428 #N/A #N/A
 Periodo (2016/I-2022/IV)
-99318.096 -120944.442 -120347.290 -1.044
115304.021 89411.579 89269.326 2.715
0.118 166829.917 #N/A #N/A
0.766 23.000 #N/A #N/A
85289213693.568 640141086005.428 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2017/I-2022/IV)
-64586.894 -135438.339 -132815.961 -3.218
144696.285 103323.883 103489.997 3.876
0.163 178003.731 #N/A #N/A
0.924 19.000 #N/A #N/A
117164360712.974 602021234884.000 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2021/IV)
-123675.938 -141319.230 -141320.013 -0.711
139182.871 105663.083 105184.889 3.091
0.131 181761.275 #N/A #N/A
0.719 19.000 #N/A #N/A
94990856465.553 627706062087.852 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2020/IV)
-134418.994 -173402.932 -174916.623 -1.544
159328.097 126567.854 126819.517 3.825
0.165 200110.395 #N/A #N/A
0.739 15.000 #N/A #N/A
118341796527.882 600662552467.306 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2019/IV)
-36987.562 -158251.729 -152444.276 -5.639
169802.377 121349.941 121815.800 4.783
0.232 190785.983 #N/A #N/A
1.132 15.000 #N/A #N/A
164825390039.780 545989371322.818 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)
-416591.740 -316679.134 -291338.982 3.450
361356.322 224793.303 217038.450 7.929
0.291 265714.522 #N/A #N/A
0.718 7.000 #N/A #N/A
202883157388.149 494229450836.420 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2017/IV)
-3481.178 1324.829 4082.869 0.136
2987.351 1471.039 1486.446 0.071
0.766 1466.327 #N/A #N/A
2.454 3.000 #N/A #N/A
 21106520.343 6450341.013 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2017/IV-2018/IV)
-630227.201 -491402.234 -460886.931 4.901
952567.537 431192.053 372128.239 22.529
0.439 352759.267 #N/A #N/A
0.587 3.000 #N/A #N/A
292046531506.845 373317300832.043 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2018/IV-2019/IV)
-99318.096 -120944.442 -120347.290 -1.044
115304.021 89411.579 89269.326 2.715
0.118 166829.917 #N/A #N/A
0.766 23.000 #N/A #N/A
85289213693.568 640141086005.428 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2019/IV-2020/IV)
2200.768 4913.002 4211.586 0.039
3246.713 3422.579 3162.043 0.129
0.470 3050.816 #N/A #N/A
0.664 3.000 #N/A #N/A
24715529.221 27922429.114 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2020/IV-2021/IV)
4400.640 3043.651 1834.505 -0.107
5768.473 4886.294 4882.282 0.148
0.231 4881.898 #N/A #N/A
0.226 3.000 #N/A #N/A
21528463.167 71498797.300 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2018/I-2020/I)
-41234.612 -318665.915 -303052.283 -12.367
343215.867 276697.138 276078.712 10.029
0.458 302192.575 #N/A #N/A
0.846 4.000 #N/A #N/A
308949127437.153 365281409327.265 #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2018/I)
-539936.628 -423203.814 -404168.509 3.338
655792.274 359437.250 386063.516 17.678
0.435 353416.476 #N/A #N/A
0.577 3.000 #N/A #N/A
288170577631.305 374709617260.522 #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 3.182 Zonas

α= 5%
 GL= 3.000
TP1= 1.912 2
TP2= 2.747 2
TP3= 0.901 2
TP4= -1.165 2

Y=±B0±B1*X1
Donde:
B0= 82684.949
B1= -0.107
X1= Q
Y= IT
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
IT= 15201.909+0.005*Q
 D4(IV) UN
IT (VENTAS INGRESOS
X4 12839.300 X1 TOTALES). NETOS.

0 13362.100 793,121.00 $ 12,839.3 $ 2,136.5

0 14612.300 913524 $ 13,362.1 $ 1,970.3
0 14206.600 844837 $ 14,612.3 $ 2,436.2
1 13674.900 919409 $ 14,206.6 $ 2,313.5
0 10316.300 993501 $ 13,674.9 $ 2,169.7
0 14216.200 1028808 $ 10,316.3 $ 1,996.8
0 15039.100 904015 $ 14,216.2 $ 2,193.2
1 18900.000 924924 $ 15,039.1 $ 1,527.3
0 16213.600 997272 $ 18,900.0 $ 1,193.8
0 17114.400 1048911 $ 16,213.6 $ 2,562.1
0 15421.000 896567 $ 17,114.4 $ 2,463.6
1 18323.600 990671 $ 15,421.0 $ 2,389.0
0 14884.100 998238 $ 18,323.6 $ 1,976.0
0 18312.900 1049795 $ 14,884.1 $ 1,291.6
0 21138.000 897756 $ 18,312.9 $ 1,105.7
1 20138.400 993745 $ 21,138.0 $ 2,510.0
0 21431.900 925144 $ 20,138.4 $ 426.5
0 20292.400 1132995 $ 21,431.9 $ 2,122.3
0 20328.600 995320.00 $ 20,292.4 $ 267.5
1 20500.600 983879 $ 20,328.6 $ 1,168.2
0 20860.900 995928 $ 20,500.6 $ 319.6
0 21619.000 1021092 $ 20,860.9 $ 197.0
0 21251.500 1163284 $ 21,619.0 $ 459.6
1 24367.000 1213262 $ 21,251.5 $ 149.6
0 23432.100 1283473 $ 24,367.0 $ 235.7
0 24457.800 1442555 $ 23,432.1 $ 157.9
0 0.000 1309509 $ 24,457.8 $ 116.5
1 0.000 139296

604090.200
1162939.336
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
604090.200
1162939.336
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

1564560.643
1669917.337
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

478538.547
1317146.497
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

862919.563
1636331.893
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

2649436.282
2071194.330
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-1122407.352
3314844.000
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-28855.645
29545.555
#N/A
#N/A
 #N/A

-1597170.263
9481280.395
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

604090.200
1162939.336
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

13221.483
57122.334
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

82684.949
64970.939
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

5700344.174
4366232.577
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

-939533.399
7441123.506
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
 Examen de Economía

1) Explique si la función de Utilidad proyectada es significativa mediante el diagrama de puntos.

La funcion de la utilidad es significativa por que no se parece a ninguno de los diagramas de puntos.

DIAGRAMA DE DISPERSIÓN
30000
25000
IT (VENTAS TOTALES).

20000 R² = 0.80088505132724
15000
10000
5000
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
UN (UTILIDAD NETA).

2) ¿Existe Multicolinealidad?. ¿Entre que variables?

No esxite multicolonialidad porque no se utilizaron dicotomas

3) Determinar la función de la utilidad.

Y=±a±bX±cX2
Donde:
a= 5.132E+05
b= -1.974E+00
c= 1.578E-06
X= IT
Y= UN
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10-6*IT2

4) En el caso de usar variables dicótomas, indicar el trimestre significativo.

En nuestro caso no fue necesario usar dictomas debido a que nuestra empresa no mostro estacionalidad.

5) Obtenga que el coeficiente de determinación(r2).

Y=±a±b*X±c*X2
Y X
Periodo UN IT
2016/I 265.729194738031 12839.3
2016/II 232.977900180361 13362.1
2016/III 134.995253313989 14612.3
2016/IV 159.003660270578 14206.6
2017/I 103.575174955576 13674.9
2017/II 333.461322373332 10316.3
2017/III 153.950723822118 14216.2
2017/IV 149.844814516826 15039.1
2018/I 79.6435142857143 18900
2018/II 91.1626961316425 16213.6
2018/III 26.9904291123265 17114.4
2018/IV 123.237760197134 15421
2019/I 32.6213189547905 18323.6
2019/II 138.140568794888 14884.1
2019/III 67.2069781410918 18312.9
2019/IV 19.0939540164632 21138
2020/I 45.9614616851388 20138.4
2020/II 22.5975699774635 21431.9
2020/III 24.49398543297 20292.4
2020/IV 41.3926418936867 20328.6
2021/I 32.342573388096 20500.6
2021/II 13.62886548519 20860.9
2021/III 17.3771700818724 21619
2021/IV 4.29550478789733 21251.5
2022/I 10.9110518323963 24367
2022/II 0.90769201223962 23432.1
20202/III 9.34751285888347 24457.8
PROMEDIO: 18046.4666666667

r=
6) La variable ventas es importante para la vari<ble utilidad.
La variable ventas es importante para la variable utilidad porque la utilidad es la ganancia, y si no hay ventas no hay ganancia.

7) Usando la función de utilidad, reliza la gráfica y explícala.

-2.06 2.06

1 2 3

La gráfica esta dividida en dos partes (una negativa y una positiva) en donde se determina en que zona ca

8) Con el periódo que se utilizo para determinar la función. Obtenga el promedio de las ventas y sustituyase en la función pa
En caso de usar dicotomas, el promedio se establece según los trimestres significativos.

Promedio de ventas = 1.805E+04

Función UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10-6*IT2

9) Con las siguientes tablas contestar lo que se pida:

Y X
P Q OFERTA
4 0 16
5 1
14
6 2
7 3 12
8 4 10
9 5
8
10 6
11 7 6
12 8 4
13 9
2

0
0 2 4 6
 8

2
14 10
0
0 2 4 6

Y X Demanda
P Q 18
16 0
16
15.75 0.5
14
15 1
13.75 1.5 12
12 2 10
9.75 2.5 8
7 3
6
3.75 3.5
4
0 4
2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
a) Metodo de minimos cuadrados

1 4 Y
0 0 P
1 0 4
#N/A 9 5
110 0 6
7
8
-4 18.3333333333333 9
0.428174419288838 1.01925899009471 10
0.925747348119576 1.6583123951777 11
87.2727272727273 7 12
240 19.25 13
14

Q
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

b) Determine la función de la Demanda, aquella que tiene la pendiente negativa.

PD =18.333-4*Q

c) Determine la función de la Oferta, la que tiene la pendiente positiva.

PD = 4+1*Q

d) Iguale las funciones y determine los valores de X e Y.

Y X
P Q
4 0
5 1
6 2
7 3
8 4
9 5
10 6
11 7
12 8
13 9
14 10

1 4
0.00E+00 0
1 0
#N/A 9
110 0
 conomía

de puntos.

estacionalidad.

Y=±a±b*X±c*W
Y X W=X2
UN IT IT2
265.729195 12839.3 164847624.49
232.9779 13362.1 178545716.41
134.995253 14612.3 213519311.29
159.00366 14206.6 201827483.56
103.575175 13674.9 187002890.01
333.461322 10316.3 106426045.69
153.950724 14216.2 202100342.44
149.844815 15039.1 226174528.81
79.6435143 18900 357210000
91.1626961 16213.6 262880824.96
26.9904291 17114.4 292902687.36
123.23776 15421 237807241
32.621319 18323.6 335754316.96
138.140569 14884.1 221536432.81
67.2069781 18312.9 335362306.41
19.093954 21138 446815044
45.9614617 20138.4 405555154.56
22.59757 21431.9 459326337.61
24.4939854 20292.4 411781497.76
41.3926419 20328.6 413251977.96
32.3425734 20500.6 420274600.36
13.6288655 20860.9 435177148.81
17.3771701 21619 467381161
4.29550479 21251.5 451626252.25
10.9110518 24367 593750689
0.90769201 23432.1 549063310.41
9.34751286 24457.8 598183980.84
PROMEDIO 18046.4667 325674959.151111

2.065E-06 -9.410E-02 1.083E+03

3.630E-07 1.304E-02 1.135E+02
9.152E-01 2.637E+01 #N/A
1.296E+02 2.400E+01 #N/A
1.802E+05 1.669E+04 #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 2.06389856162803
α= 0.05
GL= 24 Zonas
Tp1=b/σb= -7.21572412680954 1
Tp2=c/σc= 5.6901040030716 3

Y=±a±bX±cX2
Donde:
a= 1082.679
b= -0.0941
c= 2.07E-06
X= IT
Y= UN
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
 UN= 1082.679-0.094*IT+2.065*10-6*IT2

y si no hay ventas no hay ganancia.

donde se determina en que zona cae la función.

ventas y sustituyase en la función para determinar el valor de la utilidad.

Valor de la utilidad 4.775E+05

94*IT+2.065*10 -6*IT2

OFERTA

4 6 8 10 12
 4 6 8 10 12

Demanda

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

X X Y
Q 0 18.333
0 1 14.333
1 2 10.333
2 3 6.333
3 4 2.333
4 5 -1.666
5 6 -5.666
6 7 -9.666
7 8 -13.666
8 9 -17.666
9 10 -21.666
10

Chart Title
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-10
-15
-20
12 14 16 -25

negativa.
 Tc(α,GL)= 2.262
α= 5%
GL= 9.000

Tp=b/σb= 1.28E+16

Donde:
a= 4
b= 1
X= Q
Y= P

Y= ±a±b*X
Sustituyendo lo anterior en Y:
PO= 4+1*Q
 Referencias
https://bachoco.com.mx/
https://bachoco.com/inversionistas/
 Demanda Oferta
P Q P Q
148 0 0 0
136 120 60 120
120 360 180 360
100 600 300 600
68 720 360 720
36 800 400 800
16 840 420 840

Demanda
160 900
140 800

120 700
600
100
500
80
400
60 300
40 200
20 100

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 50 100 1
 80
400
60 300
40 200
20 100

0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 50 100 1

X Y
Q P
0 148.000
120 136.000
360 120.000
600 100.000
720 68.000
800 36.000
840 16.000

Fución SEM (Y)

Q LN(P)
0 4.997
120 4.913
360 4.787
600 4.605
720 4.220
800 3.584
840 2.773

-0.002 5.264
0.001 0.354
0.689 0.501
11.083 5.000
2.783 1.255

F. Cuadrática
P Q Q2
148.000 0 0
136.000 120 14400
120.000 360 129600
100.000 600 360000
68.000 720 518400
36.000 800 640000
16.000 840 705600
 0.000 0.046 140.799
0.000 0.055 8.938
0.972 10.389 #N/A
69.109 4.000 #N/A
14919.104 431.753 #N/A

F. Cúbica.
P Q Q2 Q3
148.000 0 0 0
136.000 120 14400 1728000
120.000 360 129600 46656000
100.000 600 360000 216000000
68.000 720 518400 373248000
36.000 800 640000 512000000
16.000 840 705600 592704000

-5.59E-07 4.97E-04 -0.181 149.097

5.97E-08 7.76E-05 0.027 2.074
0.999 2.180 #N/A #N/A
1076.009 3.000 #N/A #N/A
15336.604 14.253 #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 3.1824463053 Tc(α,GL)= Err:502

α= 5% α= 5%
GL= 3.000 GL= 0.000
Tp1= -6.7335886907 Tp2= b/σb= #DIV/0!
Tp2= 6.4014986641
Tp3= -9.3741514219

Zona
Tp1 1
-3.1824 3.1824
Tp2 3
Tp3 1

Como: Ninguna

Y=±a±bX±cX2±dX3
2 3
1 Donde:
a= 149.097
b= -0.181
c= 4.967E-04
d= -5.593E-07
 X= Q
Y= P
Q 252.188 Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P 126.09 PD= 149.097-0.181*Q+4.967*10 -4*Q2-5.593*10-7*Q

Po=2.842*10-14+0.5*Q PD= 149.097-0.181*Q+4.967*10-4*Q2-5.593*

Q P D
0 2.84E-14 149.097
50 25.000 141.238 P
100 50.000 135.443 3.00E+02
150 75.000 131.293 2.50E+02
252.188 126.094 126.166
2.00E+02
250 125.000 126.247

Precio (P)
300 150.000 124.513 1.50E+02

350 175.000 122.746 1.00E+02

400 200.000 120.526 5.00E+01
450 225.000 117.433 0.00E+00
500 250.000 113.048 0 10

P QD P Q0
0.5 9 0.5 0
1 6 1 3
1.5 4 1.5 4
2 3 2 5
2.5 2 2.5 6

Demanda
3
2.5
2
1.5
P

1
0.5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
QD
 P QD LN(P) LN (QD)
0.5 9 -0.693 2.197
1 6 0.000 1.792
1.5 4 0.405 1.386
2 3 0.693 1.099
2.5 2 0.916 0.693

Doble logaritimica.
-0.276 2.825 Donde:
0.041 0.221 LN(a)= 2.825
0.938 0.227 a= 1.686E+01
45.632 3.000 b= -0.276
2.346 0.154 X= QD
Y= P

LN(Y)=LN(a)+b*LN(X)
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P=(1.686*101+(-0.276)*QD

Logaritmica en X.
LN(X)=X*
Y=±a±(b)(X*)
Y X*
P QD P QD
0.5 9 0.5 2.197224577
1 6 1 1.791759469
1.5 4 1.5 1.386294361
2 3 2 1.098612289
2.5 2 2.5 0.693147181

-1.3467845618 3.4304911933
0.04285745264 0.0654117952
0.99697127148 0.0502388339
987.514658764 3
2.49242817869 0.0075718213

Tc(α,GL)= 3.182446305
α= 5%
GL= 3.000

Zona
 Tp= b/σb= -31.424746 1

Donde:
a= 3.430
b= -1.347
X= QD
Y= P

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:

P=3.430-1.347*LN(QD)

Semilogarítmica en Y.

LN(Y)=±a±b*x
LN(Y) X
P QD P QD
0.5 9 -0.69314718 9
1 6 0 6
1.5 4 0.405465108 4
2 3 0.693147181 3
2.5 2 0.916290732 2

-0.2288593902 1.362876241
0.0049773031 0.026895865
0.9985830447 0.027622911
2114.2157269 3
1.6131999113 0.002289076

Tc(α,GL)= 3.182446305
α= 5%
GL= 3.000

Zona
Tp= b/σb= -45.9806016 1

Y=e(±a±b*X)
Donde:
a= 1.363
 b= -0.229
X= QD
Y= P

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:

P= e(1.363-0.229*QD)

Cúbica
P QD QD2 QD3
0.5 9 81 729
1 6 36 216
1.5 4 16 64
2 3 9 27
2.5 2 4 8

-0.004 0.107 -1.006 4.132

0.003 0.056 0.270 0.385
0.999 0.058 #N/A #N/A
243.788 1.000 #N/A #N/A
2.497 0.003 #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)=
α= 5%
GL= 0.003
Zonas
Tp1= -3.722 1
Tp2= 1.929 2
Tp3= -1.316 2

a= 4.132
b= -1.006
c= 0.107
d= -0.004
X= QD
Y= P

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:

P=4.132+1006*QD-0.107*QD2+0.0004*Q3

Cuadrática

P QD QD2
0.5 9 81
1 6 36
 1.5 4 16
2 3 9
2.5 2 4

0.034 -0.659 3.660

0.006 0.070 0.164
0.996 0.068 #N/A
267.125 2.000 #N/A
2.491 0.009 #N/A

Tc(α,GL)=
α= 5%
GL= 0.009
Zonas
Tp1= -9.441 1
Tp2= 5.575 3

a= 3.660
b= -0.659
c= 0.034
X= QD
Y= P

Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y

P=0.660+0.659*QD-0.034*QD2
 Oferta
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
400
300
200
100
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

F. Líneal.
0.5 0
0 0
1 0
#N/A 5
169371.42857 0

Tc(α,GL)= 2.5705818356
α= 5%
GL= 5.000
Tp= b/σb= 1.796012E+16

Y= ±a±b*X
Donde:
a= 2.84E-14
b= 0.500
X= Q
Y= P
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P= 2.84X10-4+0.500*Q
mo: Ninguna

±a±bX±cX2±dX3
o anterior en la función Y:
Q+4.967*10-4*Q2-5.593*10-7*Q3

0.181*Q+4.967*10 -4*Q2-5.593*10-7*Q3

Precio de Equilibrio(PE)
3.00E+02
2.50E+02
2.00E+02
Precio (P)

1.50E+02
1.00E+02
5.00E+01
0.00E+00
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Cantidad (Q)

P D

Oferta
3
2.5
2
1.5
P

1
0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
QO
 0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
QO

P QO LN(QD)
0.5 0 0.000
1 3 1.099
1.5 4 1.386
2 5 1.609
2.5 6 1.792

1.023 0.295 Donde:

0.260 0.347 LN(a)= 0.295
0.838 0.367 a= 1.343
15.529 3.000 b= 1.023
2.095 0.405 X= QO
Y= P

Y=±a±(b)(X*)
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P=1.343+1.023*LN(QO)

Polinomiales
Cuadrática
Y=±a±b*X±c*X2
P QO QO2
0.5 0 0
1 3 9
1.5 4 16
2 5 25
2.5 6 36

0.04971219257 0.0431711146 0.489534275

0.00851848278 0.0516306141 0.071958993
0.9958137101 0.0723385262 #N/A
237.875 2 #N/A
2.48953427525 0.0104657248 #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 4.303
α= 5%
GL= 2.000
Zonas
Tp1=b/σb= 0.714 2
Tp2=c/σc= 0.009 2

Y=±a±bX±cX2
Donde:
 a= 0.490
b= 0.043
c= 4.971E-02
X= QO
Y= P
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P= 0.490+0.043*QO+4.971*10-2*QO2

Cúbica
Y=±a±bX±cX2±dx3
P QO QO2 QO3
0.5 0 0 0
1 3 9 729
1.5 4 16 4096
2 5 25 15625
2.5 6 36 46656

-1.1289663E-05 0.0823366075 -0.07327015 0.499103727

3.4550762E-06 0.0105884723 0.041550832 0.0299244005
0.99964149078 0.0299378197 #N/A #N/A
929.442848744 1 #N/A #N/A
2.49910372695 0.000896273 #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 12.706
α= 5%
GL= 1.000
Zonas
Tp1=b/σb= -1.763 2
Tp2=c/σc= 7.776 2
TP3=d/σd= -3.268 2

Y=±a±bX±cX2±dX3
Donde:
a= 0.499
b= -0.073
c= 8.234E-02
d= -1.129E-05
X= QO
Y= P
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
P= 0.499-0.073*QO+8.234*10-2*QO2-1.129*10-5*QO3
Demanda Oferta
P (Y) Q (X) P (Y) Q (X)
148 0 0 0
136 120 60 120
120 360 180 360
100 600 300 600
68 720 360 720
36 800 400 800
16 840 420 840

Demanda
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Q (X)

Q (X) P (Y) Funcion SEM (X)

0 148 Q LN (P)
120 136 0 4.997
360 120 120 4.913
600 100 360 4.787
720 68 600 4.605
800 36 720 4.220
840 16 800 3.584

-535.558 2852.767
148.617 675.295
0.765 177.594
12.986 4.000
409574.682 126158.651

Cuadrática
P (Y) Q (X) Q2
 148 0 0
136 120 14400
120 360 129600
100 600 360000
68 720 518400
36 800 640000
16 840 705600

0.000 0.046 140.799

0.000 0.055 8.938
0.972 10.389 #N/A
69.109 4.000 #N/A
14919.104 431.753 #N/A

Y=±a±b*X±c*W
Tc(α,GL)= 2.776445105198
α= 5%
GL= 4.000 Zonas
Tp1=b/σb= 0.845363456459 2
Tp2=c/σc= -3.517227705584 1

Cúbica
P (Y) Q (X) Q2 Q3
148 0 0 0
136 120 14400 1728000
120 360 129600 46656000
100 600 360000 216000000
68 720 518400 373248000
36 800 640000 512000000
16 840 705600 592704000

-5.593369997E-07 0.00049670362 -0.180616784786 149.09722093

5.9668014149E-08 7.7591772E-05 0.026823257713 2.0735666265
0.9990715024975 2.17969665464 #N/A #N/A
1076.0088204661 3 #N/A #N/A
15336.603910338 14.2532325188 #N/A #N/A

Y=±a±bX±cW±dZ
Tc(α,GL)= 3.182
α= 5%
GL= 3.000 Zonas.
Tp1=b/σb= -6.734 1
Tp2=c/σc= 6.401 3
 Tp2=d/σd= -9.374 1

Y=±a±bX±cX2±dX3
Donde:
a= 149.097
b= -0.181
c= 4.967E-04
d= -5.593E-07
X= Q
Y= P
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y:
PD= 149.097-0.181Q+4.967*10 -4Q2-5.593*10-7Q3

PO= 2.842*10-14+0.5*Q PD= 149.097-0.181Q+4.967*10-4Q2-5.593*10-

Donde: Donde:
a= 2.842E-14 a= 149.09722093
b= 0.5 b= -0.1806167848
c= 0.0004967036
d= -5.59337E-07

PO= 2.842*10-14+0.5*Q PD= 149.097-0.181Q+4.967*10-4Q2-5.593*10-7Q3

Q PO PD
0 2.842E-14 149.097
50 25.50 141.238
100 50.00 135.443
150 75.00 131.293
200 100.00 128.367
250 125.00 126.247 (Punto de equilibrio.)
300 150.00 124.513 El precio para obtener un punto de equilibrio seria $250.00 aprox.
350 175.00 122.746
400 200.00 120.526
450 225.00 117.433
500 250.00 113.048

X X
P QP P QP
0.5 9 0.5 0
1 6 1 3
1.5 4 1.5 4
 2 3 2 5
2.5 2 2.5 6

DEMANDA
r2= 0.938

P QP
0.5 9
1 6
1.5 4
2 3
2.5 2

cuadratica
P Q Q2
0.5 9 81
1 6 36
1.5 4 16
2 3 9
2.5 2 4

0.034 -0.659 3.660

0.006 0.070 0.164
0.996 0.068 #N/A
267.125 2.000 #N/A
2.491 0.009 #N/A

Y=±a±b*X±c*W
Tc(α,GL)= 4.303
α= 5%
GL= 2 Zonas,
Tp1=b/σb= -9.441 1
Tp2=c/σc= 5.575 3

Y=±a±bX±Cx2
Donde:
a= 3.6597
b= -0.6591
c= 0.0344
X= Q
Y= P
PD=3.6597-0.6591*Q+0.0344*Q2
 P Q Q2 Q3
0.5 9 81 729
1 6 36 216
1.5 4 16 64
2 3 9 27
2.5 2 4 8

-0.004471890971 0.1071834185122 -1.00586572712 4.132130504362

0.003398517745 0.0555780337139 0.27022563623 0.385463695835
0.998634556812 0.0584260898116 #N/A #N/A
243.7876496534 1 #N/A #N/A
2.496586392029 0.0034136079707 #N/A #N/A

Y=±a±bX±cW±dZ
Tc(α,GL)= 12.706204736175
α= 5%
GL= 1 zonas
Tp1=b/σb= -3.7223179160944 2
Tp2=c/σc= 1.9285212403156 2
Tp2=d/σd= -1.3158356986592 2

Y X Funcion SEM(X)
P Q Y LN(X)
0.5 9 P Q
1 6 0.5 2.197
1.5 4 1 1.792
2 3 1.5 1.386
2.5 2 2 1.099
2.5 0.693

-1.347 3.430
0.043 0.065
0.997 0.050
987.515 3.000
2.492 0.008

Tc(α,GL)= 3.182
α= 5%
GL= 3.000 Zona
Tp1=b/σb= -31.425 1
 PO=e(-0.725+0.275*Q) Y=e(±a±b*X)
LN(PO)= -0.725+0.275*Q LN(PD)= 1.363-0.229*Q
Donde: Donde:
a= -0.725 a= 1.363
b= 0.275 b= -0.229

Q PO
0 0.484
1 0.637
2 0.839
3 1.105
4.145 1.513
5 1.914
6 2.519
7 3.316
8 4.365
9 5.747
10 7.564
Q PD
0 3.907
1 3.108
2 2.472
3 1.967
4.145 1.513
5 1.244
6 0.990
7 0.787
8 0.626
9 0.498
10 0.396

Precio de equilibrio (PE)

8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0.000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Column B Column D
1.000
0.000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Column B Column D
 Oferta
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200

140 160 100

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Funcion lineal
P (Y) Q (X)
0 0
60 120
180 360
300 600
360 720
400 800
420 840

0.5 0
0 0
1 0
#N/A 5
169371.42857 0

Tc(α,GL)= 2.5705818356
α= 5%
GL= 5 Zona.
 Tp1=b/σb= 1.796E+16 3

Y=±a±bx
Donde:
a= 2.842E-14
b= 0.5
X= Q
Y= P
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y:
PO= 2.842*10-14+0.5*Q

- 3.182 3.182
 PO-PD=0
Donde:
a= -149.09722
b= 0.68062
c= -4.96704E-04
d= 5.59337E-07

0= -149.097+0.681*Q-4.967*10 -4*Q2+5.593*10-7*Q3
Q= 252.18866
PO= 2.842*10-14+0.5*Q
P= 126.094

Punto de equilibrio
3.000E+02

2.500E+02

2.000E+02

1.500E+02
equilibrio seria $250.00 aprox. 1.000E+02

5.000E+01

0.000E+00
0 100 200 300 400 500 600

PO PD

Chart Title
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
DEMANDA
2 SEMI LOG (X)
1
0 OFERTA
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
TODAS - LINEAL
Column B Column D

Oferta
P QP R2 0.9245283019
0.5 0
1 3
1.5 4
2 5
2.5 6

SEM (X) Funcion SEM (Y) Funcion cuadra

Y LN(X) LN(Y) X Y
P Q Y Q P
0.5 Err:502 -0.693 0 0.5
1 1.099 0.000 3 1
1.5 1.386 0.405 4 1.5
2 1.609 0.693 5 2
2.5 1.792 0.916 6 2.5

Err:502 0.275 -0.725 0.050

0.015 0.061 0.009
Tc(α,GL)= Err:502 0.991 0.068 0.996
α= 5% 346.226 3.000 237.875
GL= 0 1.602 0.014 2.490
Tp1=b/σb= 0.5
Tc(α,GL)= 3.182 Tc(α,GL)=
Donde α= 5% α=
Ln(P)= GL= 3.000 Zona GL=
a= Err:502 Tp1=b/σb= 18.607 3 Tp1=b/σb=
b= Err:502
X= QP
Y= P Y=e(±a±b*X)
Donde:
a= -0.725
b= 0.275
X= Q
Y= P
Sustituyendo la funcion en Y
PO=e(-0.725+0.275*Q)
PO=e(2.6464+3.6069*Q)

Funcion SEM(Y) Funcion doble_log

LN(Y) X LN(X) LN(Y)
P Q Q P
-0.693 9 2.197 -0.693
0.000 6 1.792 0.000
0.405 4 1.386 0.405
0.693 3 1.099 0.693
0.916 2 0.693 0.916

-0.229 1.363 -1.062 1.786

0.005 0.027 0.127 0.194
0.999 0.028 0.959 0.149
2114.216 3.000 69.779 3.000
1.613 0.002 1.549 0.067

Tc(α,GL)= 3.182
α= 5%
GL= 3.000 Zona
Tp1=b/σb= -45.981 1

Y=e(±a±b*X)
a= 1.363
b= -0.229
X= Q
Y= PD
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y:
PD=e(1.363-0.229*Q)

LN(PO)-LN(PD)=0
Donde:
a= -2.088
b= 0.504
0= -2.088+0.504*Q
Despejando Q:
2.088=0.504*Q
Q= 2.088/0.504
Q= 4.145
LN(PD)= 1.363-0.229*Q
LN(PD)= 0.414
e[LN(PD)]=PD= 1.513
EMI LOG (X)

ODAS - LINEAL

Funcion cuadratica Funcion cubica

X W=X2 Y X W=X2 Z=X3
Q Q2 P Q Q2 Q3
0 0 0.5 0 0 0
3 9 1 3 9 27
4 16 1.5 4 16 64
5 25 2 5 25 125
6 36 2.5 6 36 216

0.043 0.490 -0.0119 0.1620 -0.2102 0.4997

0.052 0.072 0.0019 0.0181 0.0422 0.0162
0.072 #N/A 0.9999 0.0162 #N/A #N/A
2.000 #N/A 3184.6667 1.0000 #N/A #N/A
0.010 #N/A 2.4997 0.0003 #N/A #N/A

4.303
5% Tc(α,GL)= 12.706
2.000 Zona α= 5%
0.83615342 2 GL= 1.0000 Zona
Tp1=b/σb= -4.98327914 2
1.11739025
 Desplazamiento de oferta y demanda

Desaplazamiento de demanda y oferta

Cuando la oferta es baja, el precio disminuye

Cuando la demanda es baja, el precio aumenta

si el precio disminuye la cantidad de mandada sube

Cuando la oferta y demanda estan en un equilibrio, el precio es constante

 Funcion del Costo Total
CT=F(Q)

CONSOLIDADO(Millones MN) México

AÑOS (X Costo de Gasto de Otros Costo Costo
TRIMESTRE). Venta(C.VTA.) Opercion(G.O) Gastos(OG) Total(CT) Factor Total(CT)
2016/I 10012.2 1121.8 9.1 11143.1 74.51% 8302.75917
2016/II 10079.1 1185 6.4 11270.5 77.08% 8687.09787
2016/III 10657.9 1219.2 0 11877.1 74.82% 8885.95384
2016/IV 11885.9 1288.1 0 13174 72.27% 9520.65523
2017/I 11493.3 1261.2 0.5 12755 72.70% 9273.23703
2017/II 11502.1 1297.6 0 12799.7 75.33% 9641.58319
2017/III 11732.3 1346.7 0 13079 69.77% 9125.08698
2017/IV 12808.8 1510.2 0 14319 68.28% 9776.72996
2018/I 12085.8 1385.5 9.2 13480.5 72.48% 9770.56562
2018/II 13108.3 1489.1 0 14597.4 71.26% 10402.187
2018/III 12955.6 1499.1 0 14454.7 69.89% 10102.8464
2018/IV 13272.2 1566.3 0 14838.5 70.96% 10528.8785
2019/I 12515.7 1474.4 0 13990.1 71.99% 10071.2194
2019/II 13164.5 1550.8 5 14720.3 74.26% 10930.656
2019/III 12706.5 1497.6 73 14277.1 71.71% 10238.5927
2019/IV 13171.4 1571.6 152.9 14895.9 72.08% 10736.9938
2020/I 13557.3 1572.7 4.5 15134.5 70.32% 10642.9238
2020/II 14574.5 1577 207.5 16359 69.01% 11289.5906
2020/III 15107.6 1600.8 99.2 16807.6 71.69% 12049.8999
2020/IV 14472.3 1617.8 128 16218.1 75.19% 12193.7042
2021/I 15139.6 1637.3 21.8 16798.7 75.57% 12695.5254
2021/II 16901.1 1729.2 141.8 18772.1 76.40% 14341.7696
2021/III 17619 1790.9 80.7 19490.6 74.02% 14427.2256
2021/IV 18488.2 2145.5 108.3 20742 74.99% 15555.2068
2022/I 19240.5 1999.1 0 21239.6 74.27% 15773.8046
2022/II 20518.5 2123.3 0 22641.8 75.06% 16994.8201
2022/III 21189.7 2114.2 22.6 23326.5 73.53% 17150.9069

Y X
AÑOS (X Q(Toneladas de
TRIMESTRE). Costo Total(CT) pollo)
2016/I 8302.759 411459
2016/II 8687.098 403217
2016/III 8885.954 411710
2016/IV 9520.655 442246
2017/I 9273.237 419219 CT,Q
2017/II 9641.583 420604 20000.000
2017/III 9125.087 422278 18000.000
2017/IV 9776.730 461653
16000.000
2018/I 9770.566 422181
14000.000
12000.000
10000.000
8000.000
 20000.000
18000.000
16000.000
14000.000
2018/II 10402.187 431315
12000.000
2018/III 10102.846 441135
2018/IV 10528.878 458298 10000.000
2019/I 10071.219 425745 8000.000
2019/II 10930.656 436570 6000.000
2019/III 10238.593 424645 4000.000
2019/IV 10736.994 452487.2 2000.000
2020/I 10642.924 457167 0.000
2020/II 11289.591 433484 390000 400000 410000 420000 430000 440000 450000 460000 47
2020/III 12049.900 434272
2020/IV 12193.704 447604.7
2021/I 12695.525 416978
2021/II 14341.770 441486
2021/III 14427.226 442665
2021/IV 15555.207 467942
2022/I 15773.805 441036
2022/II 16994.820 437723
2022/III 17150.907 433861

0.063 -16122.264
0.029 12606.024
0.161 2416.366
4.790 25.000
27967856.489 145970597.487

Y X D1(II) D2(III) D4(IV)

AÑOS (X Q(Toneladas
TRIMESTRE). Costo Total(CT) de pollo) X2 X3 X4
2016/I 8302.75917073 411459 0 0 0
2016/II 8687.09787365 403217 1 0 0
2016/III 8885.95383871 411710 0 1 0
2016/IV 9520.65523067 442246 0 0 1
2017/I 9273.23703498 419219 0 0 0
2017/II 9641.58319298 420604 0 0 0
2017/III 9125.08697824 422278 0 1 0
2017/IV 9776.72996389 461653 1 0 1
2018/I 9770.56562439 422181 0 0 0
2018/II 10402.1870442 431315 1 0 0
2018/III 10102.8464193 441135 0 1 0
2018/IV 10528.8784579 458298 0 0 1
2019/I 10071.2193953 425745 0 0 0
2019/II 10930.6560148 436570 1 0 0
2019/III 10238.5926859 424645 0 1 0
2019/IV 10736.9938466 452487.2 0 0 1
2020/I 10642.9238169 457167 0 0 0
2020/II 11289.5906195 433484 1 0 0
 2020/III 12049.8999278 434272 0 1 0
2020/IV 12193.7042136 447604.7 0 0 1
2021/I 12695.5253637 416978 0 0 0
2021/II 14341.7695766 441486 1 0 0
2021/III 14427.2255811 442665 0 1 0
2021/IV 15555.2067666 467942 0 0 1
2022/I 15773.8046309 441036 0 0 0
2022/II 16994.8200726 437723 1 0 0
2022/III 17150.9069315 433861 0 1 0

Promedio
I, II (2017/II-2019/I 425939
III, IV I) 443416.0333

Periodo(2016/I-2022/III)
-3054.916 238.806 150.916 0.118 -39232.545
1591.127 1193.048 1145.275 0.038 16428.601
0.310 2335.490 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.472 22.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
53939180.828 119999273.148 #N/A #N/A #N/A
 Periodo(2016/I-2017/IV)
-566.13127303 -109.51853142 -110.2131422 0.033038907 -4661.986901
939.18927514 416.582395792 410.6915178 0.021960558 9089.9998899
0.64685491583 458.958661111 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.3737730146 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1157502.96555 631929.157827 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2017/I-2019/II)
-2448.8395204 -925.59417545 -238.7590369 0.077168006 -22774.36912
768.710905016 353.308494534 330.7784399 0.0220353 9316.2785568
0.792 343.167731331 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4.76548573035 5 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2244812.39659 588820.459134 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 2.571 Zonas r2=

α= 5% r=
GL= 5.000 r tablas=
TP1= 3.502 3
TP2= -0.722 2
TP3= -2.620 1 Si:r>r tablas,se rechaza Ho

TP4= -3.186 1 Ho: Y≠f(x)

Como: 0.890>0.754, se rechaza H

Conclusión: el modelo es significati

Periodo(2018/I-2019/IV)
675.630851222 239.484658911 733.967261 0.001158551 9429.7097964
694.215242178 323.897651489 336.4091826 0.020375652 8640.6007086
0.786 268.000866959 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.76052099757 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A
793091.771668 215473.394072 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2019/I-2020/IV)
898.567415818 1080.07463892 910.0055516 0.024413414 -420.3766198
990.243448072 1043.88240692 964.4193111 0.039437255 17422.241507
0.38911865665 930.49503158 #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.47773433526 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1654529.68681 2597463.01139 #N/A #N/A #N/A
 Periodo(2020/I-2021/IV)
1915.77297832 1549.81803537 1140.687561 0.0139829 5557.6834028
2644.67371874 2240.22109143 2238.38169 0.06805547 29787.248761
0.26374626222 2238.20564415 #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.26867055 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5383689.80377 15028693.5165 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2021/I-2022/III)
-1007.8372956 1000.87675346 799.8813455 0.059801697 -11420.68154
5694.00613145 2599.94667454 2680.943498 0.126728321 54392.087953
0.28442269318 2320.30169228 #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.19873652397 2 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4279830.74586 10767599.8864 #N/A #N/A #N/A

CT= -22774.369+0.077(Q) CT= -26148.803+0.077(Q)

(∂CT/∂Q)= CM= 0.077

Sector: Producción de cárnicos y derivados

O= CM1 + CM2
Suponer: CM1 = CM2
O= 2CM1
O= 0.154
CM~PO= 0.154 OFERTA PCD
0.200

0.150
Q P
Precio (P)

0.100
0 0.154
10 0.154 0.050
20 0.154
0.000
30 0.154 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
40 0.154 Toneladas de pollo (Q)
 México
Q(Toneladas
de pollo) MKT
411459 835.857
403217 913.377
411710 912.155
442246 930.891
419219 916.927
420604 977.438
422278 939.579
461653 1031.135
422181 1004.200
431315 1061.141
441135 1047.768
458298 1111.391
425745 1061.394
436570 1151.557
424645 1073.980
452487.2 1132.812
457167 1105.958
433484 1088.311
434272 1147.664
447604.7 1216.355
416978 1237.380
441486 1321.098
442665 1325.650
467942 1608.991
441036 1484.652
437723 1593.738
433861 1554.474

CT,Q
00 430000 440000 450000 460000 470000 480000
 0.792 Y=(±BA±Bo)±B1X1
0.890
0.754 Bo= -22774.369
B1= 0.077
BA= -3.37E+03
:r>r tablas,se rechaza Ho (±BA±Bo)= -26148.803
Toneladas
Ho: Y≠f(x) X1= de pollo
Costo Total
Como: 0.890>0.754, se rechaza Ho. Y= (CT)
Conclusión: el modelo es significativo
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y:
CT= -22774.369+0.077(Q) I, II

CT= -26148.803+0.077(Q) III, IV

35 40 45
 QDX= F(PX, PY, I, MKT, T)
Donde:
QDX= Demanda producto X
PX= Precio " "
PY= " " (COMPETIDOR/SOCIO)
I= Ingreso (PIB/HAB)
MKT= Publicidad (Mercadotecnia)
T= Tiempo

Función Lineal
Toneladas de pollo
Y X1 X2 X3 X4

Periodo Q PX PY I MKT
2016/I 411459 62874.151 40168193.7173 143169.086 835.857
2016/II 403217 74224.424 80163464.6695 147872.322 913.377
2016/III 411710 66948.419 42282499.1602 146160.216 912.155
2016/IV 442246 65109.422 84882528.1271 152275.634 930.891
2017/I 419219 69911.691 43473910.1717 146412.550 916.927
2017/II 420604 77231.223 44233420.8798 148683.078 977.438
2017/III 422278 72735.497 44180104.0312 146747.437 939.579
2017/IV 461653 63624.614 53282386.7262 153234.921 1031.135
2018/I 422181 2132065.687 45612484.1572 146867.133 1004.200
2018/II 431315 61956.439 45718416.0905 151636.052 1061.141
2018/III 441135 53938.773 45751950.078 148966.684 1047.768
2018/IV 458298 53640.998 54208371.8067 153137.259 1111.391
2019/I 425745 70908.555 46190242.4056 146651.663 1061.394
2019/II 436570 80061.549 46535703.4336 147977.880 1151.557
2019/III 424645 76971.718 46219717.4632 146786.735 1073.980
2019/IV 452487 66723.106 54114763.7217 150220.038 1132.812
2020/I 457167 67764.053 49753220.1405 143549.575 1105.958
2020/II 433484 78742.098 48971703.6173 119066.879 1088.311
2020/III 434272 86040.688 47553302.4334 133061.560 1147.664
2020/IV 447605 80549.497 55810834.0499 142568.230 1216.355
2021/I 416978 97681.235 48202106.4617 137055.725 1237.380
2021/II 441486 93225.132 49004522.329 140934.320 1321.098
2021/III 442665 90663.390 48914822.079 137460.366 1325.650
2021/IV 467942 85526.439 58857182.3204 142763.227 1608.991
2022/I 441036 107325.611 51338198.8433 138467.079 1484.652
2022/II 437723 117983.987 53152013.1471 143172.620 1593.738
2022/III 433861 110982.332 53391623.6062 142469.256 1554.474

41.968 0.564 0.000 -0.004 299208.011

14.101 0.433 0.000 0.007 67750.534
 0.324 14617.007 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.638 22.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2254494850.140 4700451505.056 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Y X1 X2 X3 X4
Periodo Q PX PY I MKT
2016/I 411459 62874.1510065919 40168193.7173 143169.0863 835.856739841
2016/II 403217 74224.4241674436 80163464.6695 147872.3224 913.376600885
2016/III 411710 66948.4185817601 42282499.1602 146160.2162 912.154896411
2016/IV 442246 65109.4219227146 84882528.1271 152275.6337 930.890845804
2017/I 419219 69911.6906014596 43473910.1717 146412.5497 916.927208821
2017/II 420604 77231.2233070124 44233420.8798 148683.0776 977.438404901
2017/III 422278 72735.4973130897 44180104.0312 146747.4373 939.579068246
2017/IV 461653 63624.6142869015 53282386.7262 153234.9206 1031.13468758
2018/I 422181 2132065.68745466 45612484.1572 146867.1331 1004.20004248
2018/II 431315 61956.439057613 45718416.0905 151636.0517 1061.14080093
2018/III 441135 53938.7732053431 45751950.078 148966.6835 1047.76834297
2018/IV 458298 53640.9975758581 54208371.8067 153137.2587 1111.39147007
2019/I 425745 70908.5553015054 46190242.4056 146651.6634 1061.39383395
2019/II 436570 80061.5488792391 46535703.4336 147977.88 1151.55678538
2019/III 424645 76971.7177326788 46219717.4632 146786.7353 1073.97975824
2019/IV 452487.2 66723.1056904217 54114763.7217 150220.0382 1132.81235302
2020/I 457167 67764.0531703791 49753220.1405 143549.5746 1105.95832613
2020/II 433484 78742.0983424274 48971703.6173 119066.8792 1088.31129084
2020/III 434272 86040.6876986285 47553302.4334 133061.56 1147.6641403
2020/IV 447604.7 80549.4974026065 55810834.0499 142568.23 1216.35547178
2021/I 416978 97681.2346267747 48202106.4617 137055.7252 1237.38049242
2021/II 441486 93225.1317169085 49004522.329 140934.32 1321.09822299
2021/III 442665 90663.390010089 48914822.079 137460.3657 1325.65022591
2021/IV 467942 85526.4389820683 58857182.3204 142763.2267 1608.99123121
2022/I 441036 107325.610512703 51338198.8433 138467.0792 1484.65191612
2022/II 437723 117983.986976995 53152013.1471 143172.62 1593.73819485
2022/III 433861 110982.331839769 53391623.6062 142469.2561 1554.47441471
promedio(2
016/I-2018/
IV) 428776.250 237855.112 51996477.468 148763.531 973.488
Periodo(2016/I-2022/III)
29090.949 340.632 999.316 33.069 0.003
7506.807 5994.712 6185.221 10.584 0.341
0.685 10734.506 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.908 19.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4765583583.889 2189362771.307 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/II-2022/III)
27822.154 -1862.534 -881.928 29.486 -0.031
 7523.659 6243.284 6345.860 10.944 0.339
0.681 10642.841 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.488 18.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4351440005.258 2038861159.302 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2022/II)
28007.695 1723.855 539.052 37.397 0.045
7677.271 6265.376 6259.153 11.859 0.347
0.697 10820.691 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.913 18.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4846502624.411 2107572269.519 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2022/I)
26898.698 1904.539 1842.205 43.822 0.122
7830.009 6309.435 6472.824 14.007 0.360
0.710 10890.967 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.936 17.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4928839982.033 2016423873.713 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2021/IV)
25932.129 1385.896 1216.752 45.819 0.132
8957.762 6823.165 7125.562 16.529 0.373
0.709 11204.857 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.569 16.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4894610498.782 2008781302.448 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)
449.898 -939.588 -16879.903 48.928 5.073
16450.125 6985.405 9590.067 66.068 3.005
0.971 5773.145 #N/A #N/A #N/A
14.377 3.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3354165866.337 99987620.390 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 2.824 Zonas

α= 6.650%
GL= 3.000
X1 TP1= -0.333 2
X2 TP2= -0.851 2
X3 TP3= 1.688 3
X4 TP4= 0.741 2
II TP5= -1.760 2
III TP6= -0.135 2
IV TP7= 0.027 2
 Fc
Fc(α,GL,GL2)=
α=
GL1=
GL2=No. Var.-1=
FP=
A Como: FP cae en zona B, el modelo multiple es si
B
Y=±B0±B1X1±B2X2±…BNX
Donde:
B0=
B1=
B2=
B3=
B4=
B5=
B6=
B7=
X1=
X2=
X3=
X4=
Y=
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la fu
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*
 Prueba de multicolinialidad
r (X1,X2)=
2
0.012 No existe
r (X1,X3)=
2
0.003 No existe
r2(X1,X4)= 0.009 ?
r2(X2,X3)= 0.037 No existe
r2(X2,X4)= 0.003 No existe
r (X3,X4)=
2
0.099 No existe
 X5 X6 X7
D1(II) D2(III) D4(IV)
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
1 0 0
0 1 0

III)
0.000 -0.002 408603.171
0.000 0.006 55029.966
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A

III)
0.000 -0.003 422049.027
 0.000 0.006 55793.059
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A

II)
0.000 -0.002 395886.497
0.000 0.006 57520.614
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A

/I)
0.000 -0.002 377099.280
0.000 0.006 61733.705
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A

V)
0.000 -0.002 373480.473
0.000 0.006 65184.547
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A

V)
-1.780E-04 -0.002 -360549.926
0.000 0.005 392568.337
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A
 Ho: Y≠F(X1,X2,…XN)
Hi: Al menos una Xi es significativa
6.591
0.050 Zonas:
3.000 A, rechazo Hi
4.000 Zona B, rechazo Ho
14.377 B
zona B, el modelo multiple es significativo.

Y=±B0±B1X1±B2X2±…BNXN

-360549.926
-0.002 Si se cumple la demanda
-1.780E-04
5.073
48.928
-16879.903
-939.588
449.898
PX X= BACHOCO
PY Y=WALMEX Proveedor
I
MKT
QX
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y:
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT
 PRECIO DEL PRODUCTO X (PX)

MILLONES MILLONES
(MN) (TONELADAS)
PERIODO IT Q PX
2016/I 25870.1353 0.411 62874.151
2016/II 29928.5496 0.403 74224.424
2016/III 27563.3334 0.412 66948.419
2016/IV 28794.3814 0.442 65109.422
2017/I 29308.309 0.419 69911.691
2017/II 32483.7614 0.421 77231.223
2017/III 30714.6003 0.422 72735.497
2017/IV 29372.4941 0.462 63624.614
2018/I 900117.624 0.422 ###
2018/II 26722.7415 0.431 61956.439
2018/III 23794.2807 0.441 53938.773
2018/IV 24583.5619 0.458 53640.998
2019/I 30188.9629 0.426 70908.555
2019/II 34952.4704 0.437 80061.549
2019/III 32685.6551 0.425 76971.718
2019/IV 30191.3513 0.452 66723.106
2020/I 30979.4889 0.457 67764.053
2020/II 34133.4398 0.433 78742.098
2020/III 37365.0615 0.434 86040.688
2020/IV 36054.3336 0.448 80549.497
2021/I 40730.9259 0.417 97681.235
2021/II 41157.5905 0.441 93225.132
2021/III 40133.5095 0.443 90663.390
2021/IV 40021.4129 0.468 85526.439
2022/I 47334.458 0.441 107325.611
2022/II 51644.3047 0.438 117983.987
2022/III 48150.9055 0.434 110982.332
2022/IV 23633.8 0.452 52286.821
 Elasticidad

∆%Y/∆%X Variables discretas

ε=
[∂Y/∂Xi][Xi/Y] Variables continuas

Tipos
Precio (εp)
Cruzada (εXY)
Ingreso(εI)
MKT(ε MKT)

Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT

εp=(∂QX/∂PX)(PX/QX)
(∂QX/∂PX)= -0.002
(PX/QX)= 0.555
εp = -0.001 Si es una demanda debido a que la eslasticidad precio arroja un valor negativo. El producto
Conclusión: Bachoco ofrece productos inelasticos por lo cual puede subir el precio.

$ 279,621,871.28

1.235

###

1.235
Elasticidad precio (unitaria)
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT
Suponer:
β0= -360549.926
PY= 51996477.468 β2= -1.780E-04 -9257.270
I= 148763.531 β3= 5.073 754655.617
MKT= 973.488 β4= 48.928 47630.463
Σ(B0)+(B1*X1)+(B2*X2)+…(BN*XN)= 432478.883

QX= 466253.478-0.810PX

εp=(∂QX/∂PX)(PX/QX)
-1=(∂QX/∂PX)[466253.478-0.810PX)]
(∂QX/∂PX)= -0.002
Sustituyendo:
-1=(-0.810)[466253.478-0.810P X)]
Despejando PX:
### -419289.440
PX=57671-403-1.524
PX= ###
QX= 466253.478-0.810PX
Sustituyendo PX en QX:
QX= 647.526 Toneladas de pollo
IT= P*Q
Sustituyendo P y Q en IT:
IT= ###

QX= 466253.478-0.810PX
280041161 -647.526
Despejando PX de QX:
PX= 575671.403-1.235QX
Sustituyendo QX y PX en IT:
IT= (575671.403-1.235QX)(QX)
IT= 575671.403QX-1.235QX2
Suponer: Y= IT, X= QX
(∂Y/∂X)=(∂IT/∂QX)= 575671.403-2.47x
Sustituyendo QX en (∂IT/∂QX): 575671.403-2.47(1.235)
(∂IT/∂QX)= 279202581.8446
(∂∂IT/∂∂QX)= -2.47

IT Q
0 0
Chart Title
140020418 0.5 600
280040513 1 400
1.8106E+11 647.526 200
0
0 00 00 00 00
000 000 000 000
00 00 00 00
000 000 000 000
5 10 15 20
 Chart Title
600
400
200
420060284 1.5 0
560079731 2 0 00 00 00 00
000 000 000 000
700098855 2.5 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00
840117654 3 50
10
0
15
0
20
0
valor negativo. El producto x es un producto inelastico porque es menor a 1 el valor absoluto de la elasticidad precio.
ede subir el precio.
e

00 00
000 000
00 00
000 000
15 20
e

00 00
000 000
00 00
000 000
15 20
 Elasticidad Cruzada ε XY

ε XY=(∂QX/∂PY)(PY/QX)

QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)

(∂QX/∂PY)= -0.00017804
PY= 51996477.5
QX= 428776.25
(PY/QX)= 121.267
ε XY= -0.022 La empresa Bachoco es complementaria con la empresa Walmart
 Elasticidad Ingreso(ε I)

ε I=(∂QX/∂I)(I/QX)
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)
(∂QX/∂I)= 5.073
I= 148763.531
QX= 428776.25
(I/QX)= 0.347
ε I= 1.760
Bachoco ofrece productos de lujo
o(2016/I-2018/IV)
 Elasticidad MKT(εMKT)
ε MKT=(∂QX/∂MKT)(MKT/QX)
QX= -537110.494-0.810PX-5.204*10-6PY+6.246I+76.547MKT Periodo(2016/I-2018/IV)

(∂QX/∂MKT)= 48.928
MKT= 973.488
QX= 428776.250
(MKT/QX)= 0.002
ε MKT= 0.111
La mercadotecnia de bachoco es un gasto
o(2016/I-2018/IV)
 Punto de Equilibrio (PE)
No lineal
X $ Y
Q P IT CF CV
0 0.1 0 2.5 0
100 0.1 10 2.5 0.4
220 0.1 22 2.5 0.8
360 0.1 36 2.5 1.2
480 0.1 48 2.5 1.6
580 0.1 58 2.5 2
640 0.1 64 2.5 2.4
680 0.1 68 2.5 2.8
680 0.1 68 2.5 3.2
660 0.1 66 2.5 3.6

F. LINEAL F. CUADRATICA
X Y Y
Q IT IT
0 0 0
100 10 10
220 22 22
360 36 36
480 48 48
580 58 58
640 64 64
680 68 68
680 68 68
660 66 66

0.1 0 -5.31E-20
0 0 2.64E-20
1.000 0 1.000
#N/A 8 2.51E+32
5888 0 5.89E+03

TC 2.306
α= 5%
GL= 8 Zona.
Tp1=b/σb= 40726531712942300.00 3
 Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funció
IT= 9.774*10-15+0.100*Q+7.386*

F. LINEAL F. CUADRATICA
X Y Y X X2
Q CT CT Q Q2
0 2.5 2.5 0 0
100 2.9 2.9 100 10000
220 3.3 3.3 220 48400
360 3.7 3.7 360 129600
480 4.1 4.1 480 230400
580 4.5 4.5 580 336400
640 4.9 4.9 640 409600
680 5.3 5.3 680 462400
680 5.7 5.7 680 462400
660 6.1 6.1 660 435600

0.004 2.321 4.738E-06 1.024E-03 2.653E+00

0.001 0.263 2.788E-06 2.097E-03 3.068E-01
0.902 0.402 0.931 3.613E-01 #N/A
73.785 8.000 4.705E+01 7.000E+00 #N/A
11.909 1.291 1.229E+01 9.140E-01 #N/A

TC 2.365
α= 5%
GL= 7.00E+00
Tp1=b/σb= 0.49
Tp2=b/σb= 1.700

TC 2.306
α= 5%
GL= 8.00E+00 Zona.
Tp1=b/σb= 8.59 3

Y=±a±bx
Donde:
a= 2.321
b= 0.004
X= Q
Y= CT
 Sustituyendo lo anterior en la funcion Y:
CT=2.321+0.004*Q

IT= 9.774*10-15+0.100*Q+7.386*10-20*Q2 CT=2.321+0.004*Q IT-CT=0

a= 9.774E-15 a= 2.321 a=
b= 0.100 b= 0.004 b=
c= 7.386E-20 c= 0.000 c=

-2.321+0.096Q+7.386*10-20*

IM CM IM-CM=0
a= 0.100 a= 0.004 a=
b= 1.477E-19 b= 0 b=
 Y
CT
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.7
6.1

F. CUADRATICA
X X2
Q Q2
0 0
100 10000
220 48400
360 129600
480 230400
580 336400
640 409600
680 462400
680 462400
660 435600

1.00E-01 -7.11E-15
1.99E-17 2.91E-15
3.42E-15 #N/A
7.00E+00 #N/A
8.20E-29 #N/A

TC 2.365
α= 5%
GL= 7.00E+00 Zona.
Tp1=b/σb= 7467874870129817.00 3
Tp2=b/σb= 4.149 3

Y=±a±b*X±c*W
DONDE:
a= 9.774E-15
b= 0.100
 c= 7.386E-20
X= Q
Y= IT
Sustituyendo lo anterior en la función Y :
IT= 9.774*10-15+0.100*Q+7.386*10-20*Q2

F. CUBICA
Y X X2 X3
CT Q Q2 Q3
2.5 0 0 0
2.9 100 10000 1000000
3.3 220 48400 10648000
3.7 360 129600 46656000
4.1 480 230400 110592000
4.5 580 336400 195112000
4.9 640 409600 262144000
5.3 680 462400 314432000
5.7 680 462400 314432000
6.1 660 435600 287496000

1.935E-08 -1.557E-05 6.320E-03 2.467E+00

1.542E-08 1.641E-05 4.678E-03 3.302E-01
0.945 3.474E-01 #N/A #N/A
3.446E+01 6.000E+00 #N/A #N/A
1.248E+01 7.241E-01 #N/A #N/A

TC 2.447
α= 5%
Zona. GL= 6.00E+00 Zona.
2 Tp1=b/σb= 1.35 2
2 Tp2=b/σb= -0.949 3
Tp3=b/σb= 1.254E+00 2
 IT-CT=0
-2.321
0.096
7.386E-20

-2.321+0.096Q+7.386*10-20*Q2=0
Resolviendo:
Q1= -1.293E+18
Q2= 24.305

IM-CM=0
0.096
1.477E-19
0.096+1.477*10-19*Q=0
Despejando Q:
Q= QMax= -6.465E+17
CT= -22774.369+0.077(Q) I, II

CT= -26148.803+0.077(Q) III, IV

Q1= Q2=
 Ingreso (Producto Interno Bruto por Habitante)

Producto
Interno
MILLONES MILLONES Bruto por
(MN) (PERSONAS) Habitante
PIB/HAB
Periodo PIB 1 Población 2 (INGRESO)
2016/01 17166386.1 119.903 143169.086
2016/02 17781120.9 120.246 147872.322
2016/03 17625642.3 120.591 146160.216
2016/04 18415807.7 120.937 152275.634
2017/01 17757592.1 121.285 146412.55
2017/02 18084813.7 121.633 148683.078
2017/03 17900722.4 121.983 146747.437
2017/04 18745917.1 122.334 153234.921
2018/01 18018663.6 122.687 146867.133
2018/02 18670352.5 123.126 151636.052
2018/03 18405820.5 123.557 148966.684
2018/04 18985339.4 123.976 153137.259
2019/01 18240968.7 124.383 146651.663
2019/02 18464189.9 124.777 147977.88
2019/03 18371400.5 125.157 146786.735
2019/04 18856161.9 125.524 150220.038
2020/01 18069681.1 125.878 143549.575
2020/02 15028758.1 126.221 119066.879
2020/03 16839487.6 126.554 133061.56
2020/04 18089113.3 126.880 142568.23
2021/01 17433940.1 127.203 137055.725
2021/02 17967574.3 127.489 140934.32
2021/03 17563657.3 127.773 137460.366
2021/04 18273129.2 127.996 142763.227
2022/01 /r1 17761376.9 128.271 138467.079
2022/02 18402501.4 128.534 143172.62
2022/03 18330898.2 128.666 142469.256
2022/04 /p1 18925112.1 128.858 146868.42

1) Fuente: /f1 INEGI. Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de México.

Enlace: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/?tm=0#bodydataExplorer

2) Fuente: /f1 INEGI. Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo.

Enlace: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/?tm=0#bodydataExplorer
 Wal-mart (PY) Consolidado
IT(Millones
Periodo Q IT PY Factor MN) Q
2016/I 2354 94555.928 40168193.7 77.03% 122754 3056
2016/II 2362 189346.104 80163464.7 76.91% 246182 3071
2016/III 2259 95516.1656 42282499.2 75.88% 125875 2977
2016/IV 2291 194465.872 84882528.1 75.81% 256515 3022
2017/I 2291 99598.7282 43473910.2 75.66% 131639 3028
2017/II 2300 101736.868 44233420.9 75.51% 134735 3046
2017/III 2313 102188.581 44180104 75.20% 135898 3076
2017/IV 2356 125533.303 53282386.7 75.18% 166987 3134
2018/I 2369 108055.975 45612484.2 75.06% 143953 3156
2018/II 2392 109358.451 45718416.1 75.17% 145476 3182
2018/III 2406 110079.192 45751950.1 75.07% 146635 3205
2018/IV 2438 132160.01 54208371.8 75.04% 176123 3249
2019/I 2446 112981.333 46190242.4 75.05% 150534 3259
2019/II 2470 114943.187 46535703.4 75.05% 153149 3291
2019/III 2499 115503.074 46219717.5 75.11% 153773 3327
2019/IV 2571 139129.058 54114763.7 75.46% 184369 3407
2020/I 2574 128064.789 49753220.1 75.35% 169957 3416
2020/II 2580 126346.995 48971703.6 75.26% 167875 3428
2020/III 2599 123591.033 47553302.4 75.29% 164154 3452
2020/IV 2634 147005.737 55810834 75.49% 194724 3489
2021/I 2654 127928.391 48202106.5 75.55% 169334 3513
2021/II 2677 131185.106 49004522.3 75.66% 173378 3538
2021/III 2705 132314.594 48914822.1 75.79% 174577 3569
2021/IV 2756 162210.394 58857182.3 76.13% 213063 3620
2022/I 2765 141950.12 51338198.8 76.15% 186409 3631
2022/II 2784 147975.205 53152013.1 76.25% 194058 3651
2022/III 2804 149710.113 53391623.6 76.26% 196321 3677
2022/IV 2863 180626.632 63089986.6 76.45% 236272 3745
 Punto de Equilibrio Financiero(Q)

IT(Ventas) Costo Total(CT)

IT= 15201.909+0.005*Q CT= -22774.369+0.077(Q) IT-CT=0
a= 15201.909 a= -22774.3691 a= 37976.278
b= 0.005 b= 0.07716801 b= -0.072
37976.278-0.072Q=0
PEF=

Q IT CT
0 15201.909 -22774.369
100000 15701.909 -15057.568
200000 16201.909 -7340.768
300000 16701.909 376.033
400000 17201.909 8092.833
526220.412 17833.011 17833.011
600000 18201.909 23526.435
700000 18701.909 31243.235
800000 19201.909 38960.036
900000 19701.909 46676.837
1000000 20201.909 54393.637

PEF
60000.000
50000.000
40000.000
30000.000
20000.000
10000.000
0.000
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000
-10000.000
-20000.000
-30000.000

IT CT
6.278-0.072Q=0
526220.412
 Y X X2 X3 X4
Toneladas Millones(MN) D1 D2 D3
Periodo Q PIB II III IV
2016/I 411459.000 17166386.056 0 0 0
2016/II 403217.000 17781120.938 1 0 0
2016/III 411710.000 17625642.291 0 1 0
2016/IV 442246.000 18415807.651 0 0 1
2017/I 419219.000 17757592.061 0 0 0
2017/II 420604.000 18084813.681 1 0 0
2017/III 422278.000 17900722.435 0 1 0
2017/IV 461653.000 18745917.091 0 0 1
2018/I 422181.000 18018663.575 0 0 0
2018/II 431315.000 18670352.478 1 0 0
2018/III 441135.000 18405820.507 0 1 0
2018/IV 458298.000 18985339.428 0 0 1
2019/I 425745.000 18240968.713 0 0 0
2019/II 436570.000 18464189.906 1 0 0
2019/III 424645.000 18371400.495 0 1 0
2019/IV 452487.200 18856161.934 0 0 1
2020/I 457167.000 18069681.095 0 0 0
2020/II 433484.000 15028758.104 1 0 0
2020/III 434272.000 16839487.567 0 1 0
2020/IV 447604.700 18089113.334 0 0 1
2021/I 416978.000 17433940.123 0 0 0
2021/II 441486.000 17967574.259 1 0 0
2021/III 442665.000 17563657.322 0 1 0
2021/IV 467942.000 18273129.244 0 0 1
2022/I 441036.000 17761376.902 0 0 0
2022/II 437723.000 18402501.433 1 0 0
2022/III 433861.000 18330898.164 0 1 0
2022/IV 452003.000 18925112.067 0 0 1

0.008 289120.920
0.004 68555.323
0.149 15392.920
4.561 26.000
1080589944.693 ###

Periodo (2016/I-2022/IV)
25394.553 2243.353 1529.169 0.002 395160.658
7424.324 6815.524 6809.035 0.004 63226.934
0.485 12738.452 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.406 23.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3508913584.253 ### #N/A #N/A #N/A
 Periodo (2016/I-2021/IV)
28515.8760 3988.2301 2478.2587 0.0014 ###
8329.4797 7763.5510 7776.3060 0.0039 69041.6171
0.5023 13446.8471 #N/A #N/A #N/A
4.7947 19.0000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3467855534.2159 ### #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo (2016/I-2020/IV)
24253.5812753212 -316.05477218 -1781.41448 0.00136752 402742.98
9030.91142419558 8509.4937795 8563.55584 0.00394038 70595.2645
0.488590584109781 13453.9900833 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3.58267687977999 15 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2593999206.41031 2715147737.42 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo (2017/I-2021/IV)
29105.5526273837 4770.93785418 4522.65267 0.00034039 422163.588
7517.75189635916 7167.91294641 7214.56105 0.00333279 59885.4012
0.580504538069311 11323.9849824 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.18931005294068 15 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2661755625.96076 1923489538.21 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo (2018/I-2021/IV)
25560.7754891988 5281.982903 5533.41278 0.0008268 415684.281
8435.38518104931 8184.47851354 8289.26536 0.00344673 62106.3344
0.523540337597531 11552.7849 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3.0217372885956 11 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1613206896.14269 1468135228.41 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo (2020/I-2021/IV)
18067.2023698203 4771.48890694 8103.10224 0.0061346 328172.312
17659.6958597433 17868.3280317 19966.8794 0.00791044 140958.293
0.466731227233361 17330.0835699 #N/A #N/A #N/A
0.656420248665496 3 #N/A #N/A #N/A
788575490.263559 900995389.615 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Periodo (2018/I-2019/IV)
11369.653 3959.154 -7749.903 0.027 -54754.827
7579.990 5444.899 6204.720 0.007 129407.883
0.951 5096.133 #N/A #N/A #N/A
19.578 4.000 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2033764468.788 103882305.434 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Tc(α,GL)= 2.776 Zonas

α= 5%
GL= 4.000
TP1= 3.676 3
 TP2= -1.249 2
TP3= 0.727 2
TP4= 1.500 2
YR=±β0±β1*X1
Donde:
β0= -54754.827
β1= 0.027
X1= PIB
YR = Q
Sustituyendo lo anterior en YR:
Q= -54754.827+0.027*PIB Normal
σβ0= 129407.883
β0-σβ0= -184162.710 Pesimista
β0+σβ0= 74653.056 Optimista

Q= -184162.710+0.027*PIB

Q= 74653.056+0.027*PIB

Indice de Confianza del Consumidor(ICC)=

Como: ICC < 50, el esenario pesimista tendra mayor prob

Crecimiento 1 Millones(MN)
Periodo PIB QO P QN P
2021/I -3.518% 0.2 0.3
2021/II 0.2 0.3
2021/III 0.2 0.3
2021/IV 0.2 0.3
2022/I 17761376.902 0.2 0.3
2022/II 18402501.433 0.2 0.3
2022/III 18330898.164 0.2 0.3
2022/IV 18925112.067 0.2 0.3
2023/I 1.95% 18107723.7516 555944.6 0.2 426536.717 0.3
2023/II 1.85% 18742947.7095 572828.441 0.2 443420.558 0.3
2023/III 0.95% 18505041.70 566505.053 0.2 437097.17 0.3
2023/IV 1.15% 19142750.8558 583454.949 0.2 454047.066 0.3
2024/I 1.70% 18415555.0554 564126.556 0.2 434718.674 0.3
2024/II 1.95% 19108435.1898 582542.861 0.2 453134.978 0.3
2024/III 2.20% 18912152.6139 577325.797 0.2 447917.914 0.3
2024/IV 1.85% 19496891.7466 592867.784 0.2 463459.901 0.3

1) Fuente: CEMPE
Enlace: http://www.economia.unam.mx/cempe/pronosticos.htm
 Pesimista

Optimista

l Consumidor(ICC)= 27.086 https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/indicadores/?tm=0

pesimista tendra mayor probabilidad de ocurrencia.

QP P Q Ponderada
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
0.5 0
297128.835 0.5 387714.353
314012.675 0.5 404598.193
307689.288 0.5 398274.806
324639.183 0.5 415224.701
305310.791 0.5 395896.309
323727.095 0.5 414312.613
318510.032 0.5 409095.55
334052.018 0.5 424637.536