You are on page 1of 12

Equity Research

December 7, 2022
INDIA
BSE Sensex: 62626
Dairy
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and
distributor of this report
Takeaways from GCMMF’s (Amul) FY22 annual report
After a year of subdued demand due to covid led restrictions in FY21, Amul reported
strong revenue growth of 18.6% in FY22 YoY. Most consumer products’ revenue
Sector update grew in double digits, and our analysis of market and growth rates of Amul indicates
the company has likely gained market share in most segments. The company
continues to strengthen its business moats: (1) Amul brand and sub brands like
Heritage Foods (BUY) EPIC, Kool, Amulya, and tru, (2) distribution network of 1mn outlets, (3) strong
connect with 3.64mn farmers and (4) 94 milk processing units pan-India.
Dodla Dairy (BUY) Management expects Amul to grow its revenue to Rs18,000bn in next 25 years, to
Hatsun Agro (HOLD) become the biggest food company in the world. Top picks in dairy sector: Heritage
Foods (Buy) and Dodla Dairy (Buy).
Parag Milk Foods (HOLD)
 Strong revenue growth in FY22: Amul reported revenue growth of 18.6% in FY22,
after muted growth of just 1.9% in FY21. Inflation in milk prices and strong volume
growth across segments drove revenue growth for the company. Gross and EBITDA
margins stood at 4.5% and 0.4%, respectively, in FY22. Profitability was stable YoY.
Amul continued introducing new products across categories in FY22.
 Consumer products growing well: Most value-added products of Amul have done
well in FY22. Revenue growth rates of key products were as follows: Milk-based
beverages (36%), ice cream (50%), ghee (24%), butter (17%), dahi (18%) and cream
(44%). We believe Amul has gained market share in most consumer product
segments. Exports were up 145% YoY.
 Efforts to strengthen distribution channel: Amul has a pan-India network of 10,000
distributors with 1mn retail outlets serviced through its 76 sales offices. We note the
company is aggressively expanding (1) its sales offices (added 6 branches in FY22)
and (2) distribution reach to towns with population of 10,000+. It has established direct
distribution in 3,600 such towns.
 Investments in strengthening other moats: Amul has increased milk procurement
outside Gujarat to 16.2% in FY22 from 12.4% in FY21. For dairy companies, such
moves could potentially reduce dependence on one state and enable the sale of more
fresh products in other states. The company has also increased milk processing units
to 94.
 Stock calls: We maintain Heritage Foods and Dodla Dairy as our top picks in dairy
sector with BUY rating. While we remain structurally positive on Hatsun, we need more
comfort on valuations to turn bullish. Hence, we rate HOLD on Hatsun. We also
maintain HOLD rating on Parag. Key risks: Higher-than-expected inflation in milk
prices, irrational competition or delay in price hikes.
Key financials of GCMMF (Amul)
Research Analysts: Year to March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Revenues (Rsmn) 2,07,504 2,29,851 2,70,625 2,92,463 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Aniruddha Joshi
aniruddha.joshi@icicisecurities.com Growth (%) 14.4 10.8 17.7 8.1 13.5 16.2 1.9 18.6
+91 22 6807 7249 EBITDA (Rsmn) 1,113 1,510 1,447 1,683 2,214 1,946 2,091 2,045
Manoj Menon Growth (%) 61.8 35.7 (4.2) 16.3 31.5 (12.1) 7.5 (2.2)
manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com PAT (Rsmn) 415 438 470 488 528 562 609 743
+91 22 6807 7209 Growth (%) 9.9 5.4 7.4 3.7 8.3 6.5 8.4 21.9
Karan Bhuwania EBITDA margin (%) 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
karan.bhuwania@icicisecurities.com PAT margin (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
+91 22 6807 7351 RoE (%) 14.7 12.8 11.9 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.7 12.5
Pranjal Garg RoCE (%) 5.3 5.5 4.5 5.4 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.8
pranjal.garg@icicisecurities.com
Milk procurement (mnpd) 14.9 17.0 17.6 20.4 23.0 21.6 24.7 26.4
+91 22 6807 7650
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities

Takeaways – FY22 annual report of GCMMF (Amul)


Our analysis of FY22 annual report of GCMMF (Amul) reveals interesting facts
regarding (1) product-wise revenue growth rates, (2) efforts to strengthen competitive
advantages, and (3) management’s vision of long-term growth.

Revenue growth improves sharply in FY22 on favourable base of FY21


Amul reported strong revenue growth of 18.6% in FY22. Key reasons: (1) 5-6% milk
inflation, (2) strong volume growth across product segments, (3) new product launches
and (4) revival in HoReCa segment.

We note the company continues to invest in improving customer reach to drive volume
growth. Notably, it has opened 27 new sales branches in the past 8 years.

Chart 1: Strong revenue growth in FY22

5,00,000 Revenues Growth (RHS) 35.0


4,50,000
30.0
4,00,000
3,50,000 25.0
3,00,000 20.0
2,50,000
(Rs mn)

(%)
2,00,000 15.0

1,50,000 10.0
1,00,000
5.0
50,000
- -
FY07

FY09

FY10

FY12

FY14

FY15

FY17

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22
FY08

FY11

FY13

FY16

FY18

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Product-wise revenue growth rates: We note most value-added products of Amul are
doing well. Growth rates of dairy products were as follows: Milk-based beverages (36%),
ice cream (50%), ghee (24%), butter (17%), dahi (18%) and cream (44%). Revenue
growth for fresh milk was 12% YoY. Based on our analysis of the market as well as
Amul’s growth rates, we believe the company has likely gained market share in most
segments. Exports were up 145% YoY in FY22.

Table 1: Product-wise revenue growth rates, YoY


% FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Dairy commodities (60.0)
Cheese 26.0 17.0 18.0 21.0
Milk based beverages 38.5 36.0
Cream 34.0 34.0 Double digit 44.0
Paneer 21.0 23.0 21.0 47.0
Dahi (curd) 26.0 33.0 32.0 24.0
Buttermilk 21.0 27.0 18.0
Liquid Milk 12.0 5.0 11.0 12.0
Infant milk food 11.0
Dairy whitener 11.5 17.0
Butter 17.0 14.0 17.0
Ice cream 15.0 10.0 50.0
Ghee 28.0 22.5 24.0
Chocolates 69.0 27.0 79.0
UHT Milk 20.0
Source: Company, I-Sec research

2
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Rising milk collection of Amul and increase in procurement prices

Although Amul has reported 9.7% CAGR in milk procurement over FY07-22, we note
its milk procurement has increased by 6.9% YoY in FY22. Its milk procurement outside
Gujarat grew 39.2% YoY in FY22, much faster than milk procurement in Gujarat.

The company’s milk procurement (fats) price has also increased from Rs800/kg in FY21
to Rs820 in FY22, indicating an increase of 2.5%.

Chart 2: Rising milk procurement by Amul… Chart 3: …and higher milk procurement prices

30 Gujarat Outside Gujarat 900


800
25
700
20 600
(mn ltrs/day)

500

(Rs/kg fat)
15
400
10 300
200
5
100
- 0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14

FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22

FY07
FY08

FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17

FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY15

FY09

FY18
Source: Company, I-Sec research

3
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities

Efforts to strengthen competitive advantages


Amul aggressively invests to strengthen its competitive advantages. The company has
created three sturdy moats as (1) brands, (2) distribution network, and (3) strong
relationships with farmers. The company is also in the process to de-risk the business
model by focusing on milk procurement outside Gujarat.

We note it opened six new sales branches in FY22 and plans to open another 14
branches in FY23.

Table 2: Key moats in dairy business created by Amul


Moats Particulars
Amul - multiple milk & milk products
Amulya - Dairy whitener
Brands Amulspray - Infant food
Sagar – Ghee
Amul Masti – Curd
76 Sales offices + Exports
Distribution network 10,000 distributors
1mn retailors across India
3.64mn farmers
Milk procurement network
18,154 villages
Dairy plants 94 across India
Source: Company, I-Sec research

Healthy investments in brand building


Amul has continued investing aggressively in brand building efforts. Its marketing
spends have increased at a CAGR of 15.5% over FY07-22. Amul spends 2-3% of net
sales (~57% of gross profits) on brand-building efforts.

Chart 4: Marketing spends to of net sales Chart 5: Marketing spends to gross profits
3.5
58.0
3.0 57.0
56.0
2.5
55.0
2.0
54.0
1.5 53.0
(%)

(%)

52.0
1.0
51.0
0.5
50.0
- 49.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17

FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY18

FY07

FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY08

Source: Company, I-Sec research

Stronger distribution network


Apart from investing in product portfolio, Amul has created a strong distribution network
pan-India. It has 10,000 distributors which in turn cater to 1mn retail outlets. We note
the company has now expanded its direct distribution reach to towns with 10,000+
population and it plans to now penetrate in 5,000+ population towns.

4
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 3: Supply chain and distribution network of Amul

Source: Company, I-Sec research

Plans to strengthen relationships with farmers


As direct milk procurement is the largest entry barrier/moat in dairy industry, Amul has
focused aggressively on expanding its relationships with farmers. We note Amul
procures milk from 3.64mn farmers across 18,154 villages. Apart from farmer education
and awareness programmes, it has invested in two key initiatives to strengthen its
relationships with farmers. It provides organised animal feed as well as services of
artificial insemination and veterinary care.
Amul’s animal feed division reported CAGR of 7.7% over FY08-22. It has also resolved
4.4mn veterinary cases in FY22.

5
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 6: Veterinary cases resolved by Amul Chart 7: Steady growth in animal feed sales
5.0 3.0
4.5
4.0 2.5

3.5
2.0
3.0

(mn MT)
2.5 1.5
(mn)

2.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 0.0

FY08

FY10

FY12

FY14

FY16

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22
FY12

FY16

FY18

FY20

FY21

FY22
Source: Company, I-Sec research

Milk procurement outside Gujarat


To de-risk the business model as well as replicate the success of Gujarat, Amul has
entered other states in India to procure milk. We note Amul’s milk procurement outside
Gujarat was just 8.2% of total milk procurement in FY12. However, it has increased to
16.2% in FY22. Steady increase in milk procurement outside Gujarat will reduce
dependence on the state and also help in selling more fresh products out of Gujarat, in
our view.

While Amul’s milk procurement outside Gujarat was flat YoY in FY21, it increased 39.2%
in FY22.

Chart 8: Milk procurement* outside Gujarat


20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22
FY16

FY17

Source: Company, I-Sec research *Milk procured outside Gujarat/ Total milk procurement

6
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Launch of new products
Amul has introduced multiple new variants over the past four years. It has also
introduced premium variants which will drive overall realisations upwards, in our view.
We also note the company has launched a new protein range consisting of protein
buttermilk and protein lassi.

Table 4: Launch of new products


Segment Product
Bread Kulcha bread, Multigrain bread, Pav
Rusk Butter toast - Elaichi, Jeera and milk flavour
Mithai Kaju Modak, Rajwadi Halwa, Moong dal Halwa
Cookies Cheese cookies, butter cookies, chocolate cookies
Protein range Protein lassi and protein buttermilk
Ready to cook Paneer paratha, paneer samosa and punjabi samosa
Cheese spread Nine new variants
Yoghurt Two new variants
Dahi Amult fruit dahi two variants
Cheese sauce Three variants
Milk Buffalo milk - A2 Milk, Cow milk variant
Amul Chocolates Three new variants
Amul Ice cream Multiple variants
Amul cattle feed Multiple variants
Bread Kulcha bread, Multigrain bread, Pav
Source: Company, I-Sec research

Chart 5: New product launches

Source: Company, I-Sec research

7
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 9: Key financial ratios of GCMMF (Amul)
7.0
Gross margin PAT margin
0.40
6.0
0.35
5.0 0.30

4.0 0.25

(%)
0.20
3.0
(%)

0.15
2.0
0.10
1.0 0.05
- -
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22

FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
RoE RoCE 8,000 OCF FCF
18.0 6,000
16.0 4,000
14.0 2,000
12.0 (Rs mn) 0
(2,000)
10.0
(%)

(4,000)
8.0
(6,000)
6.0
(8,000)
4.0 (10,000)
2.0 (12,000)
- (14,000)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22

FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12

FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY13

PAT Growth (RHS) Net working capital days


10
800 45.0
700 40.0
5
600 35.0
30.0
500 0
25.0
(Rs mn)

400
(days)
(%)

20.0 (5)
300
15.0
200 10.0 (10)
100 5.0
0 0.0 (15)
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22

FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17

FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY18

Source: Company, I-Sec research

8
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 6: Profit and loss statement
(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Gross Sales 1,81,715 2,07,809 2,30,170 2,71,016 2,92,618 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Less: Excise Duty 280 304 319 392 155 - - - -
Net Sales 1,81,435 2,07,504 2,29,851 2,70,625 2,92,463 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Growth (%) 32.1 14.4 10.8 17.7 8.1 13.5 16.2 1.9 18.6
Expenditure
Cost of Goods Sold 1,73,120 1,97,732 2,19,043 2,58,198 2,79,116 3,16,447 3,69,001 3,75,664 4,45,303
Staff Cost 1,123 1,206 1,049 1,635 1,545 1,742 2,184 2,039 2,482
Manufacturing expenses 1,103 1,349 1,415 1,498 1,687 2,006 1,901 2,299 3,014
Marketing & selling expenses 4,512 5,142 5,914 6,913 7,429 8,378 9,482 9,862 11,878
Other Expenses 888 961 921 932 1,003 1,157 1,245 1,267 1,543
EBITDA 688 1,113 1,510 1,447 1,683 2,214 1,946 2,091 2,045
EBITDA margin (%) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Depreciation 659 799 871 883 944 1,248 1,360 1,377 1,319
EBIT 29 314 639 564 739 966 585 714 727
Interest Expense & Bank Exps 82 86 327 188 297 464 245 169 108
Other Income 629 406 355 340 307 297 513 330 363
Profit Before Tax 575 634 667 717 749 799 854 875 982
Income Taxes 197 218 230 246 262 271 291 266 239
Effective tax rate (%) 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.9 33.9 34.1 30.4 24.3
Profit After Tax 378 415 438 470 488 528 562 609 743
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 7: Balance sheet


(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 1,000 1,500 1,900 2,401 2,401 2,401 2,401 2,401 3,401
Reserves and Surplus 1,504 1,692 1,855 1,983 2,111 2,638 2,840 3,064 3,447
Deferred Tax Liability (4) (42) (87) (163) (119) (142) (142) (187) (259)
Net Worth 2,500 3,151 3,668 4,221 4,392 4,897 5,098 5,278 6,588
Secured Loans 1,042 4,282 10,338 4,708 11,369 12,236 4,031 18,757 19,804
Unsecured Loans - 848 1,085 1,276 1,263 451 499 501 552
Total Loans 1,042 5,130 11,422 5,984 12,633 12,686 4,530 19,259 20,356
Total 3,542 8,281 15,090 10,205 17,024 17,583 9,628 24,537 26,944
Application of Funds
Fixed Assets
Gross Block 7,794 8,583 10,081 10,896 12,451 16,031 16,077 17,881 6,212
Less: Depreciation 4,158 4,832 5,646 6,487 7,343 8,582 9,560 10,856 -
Net Block 3,636 3,751 4,435 4,409 5,109 7,450 6,517 7,025 6,212
Capital WIP 38 76 573 499 1,832 135 332 69 176
Gross Block-Brand value 7,794 8,583 10,081 10,896 12,451 16,031 16,077 17,881 6,212
Other Investments 7 1,553 1,568 1,682 713 844 918 731 687
Current Assets 12,089 17,882 23,244 19,992 29,318 39,582 29,328 43,193 53,335
Inventories 4,412 9,069 11,898 10,414 14,448 16,208 14,143 25,922 30,650
Sundry Debtors 932 1,371 2,089 2,269 3,415 5,427 4,253 3,303 5,380
Cash & Bank Balances 6,267 3,474 3,848 4,753 6,937 8,840 7,661 9,690 12,141
Loans & Advances 478 3,968 5,409 2,555 4,518 9,107 3,270 4,279 5,164
Current Liabilities 12,229 14,982 14,730 16,377 19,948 30,428 27,468 26,481 33,466
Liabilities 11,805 14,605 14,296 15,854 19,420 30,143 27,097 26,220 33,187
Provisions 424 377 435 523 527 285 371 261 279
Net Current Assets (140) 2,900 8,514 3,615 9,371 9,154 1,860 16,712 19,869
Total 3,542 8,281 15,090 10,205 17,024 17,583 9,628 24,537 26,944
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

9
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 8: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
OCF before W/C changes 930 1,205 1,210 1,268 1,582 1,704 1,735 1,755 1,868
W/c Changes 4,365 (2,347) (3,106) 3,076 (1,287) 4,296 3,071 (11,923) (1,371)
OCF After W/C Changes 5,296 (1,142) (1,895) 4,344 294 6,000 4,805 (10,169) 497
Cash Flow from Investing
Capital Expenditure (1,759) (1,009) (2,107) (1,047) (3,148) (1,776) (970) (1,696) (508)
Disposal 102 18 10 20 37 2 127 7 46
Investments - (1,600) (1,637) 2,499 (2,494) (3,778) 3,964 (612) (1,355)
Acquisitions - - - - - - - - -
Net Cash used in Investing (1,657) (2,591) (3,734) 1,473 (5,606) (5,553) 3,121 (2,300) (1,817)
Cash Flow from Financing
Changes in Share Capital 0 500 400 500 - - - - 1,000
Changes in Loans 884 3,780 5,764 (5,614) 6,208 (51) (8,205) 14,025 1,751
Dividends & change in reserves (150) (150) (213) (275) (341) (360) (360) (360) (360)
Net Cash used in Financing 734 4,130 5,951 (5,389) 5,866 (412) (8,565) 13,665 2,391
Extraordinary Items - - - - - - - - -
Changes in Cash & Equivalents 4,373 398 322 429 555 36 (638) 1,196 1,071
Opening Cash & Equivalents 1,894 1,609 2,007 2,329 2,758 3,312 3,348 2,710 3,906
Closing Cash & Equivalents 6,267 2,007 2,329 2,758 3,312 3,348 2,710 3,906 4,977
Free Cash Flow 3,639 (2,133) (3,992) 3,318 (2,817) 4,225 3,963 (11,857) 35
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 9: Ratio analysis


(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Profitability Ratios (%)
Gross margin 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.5
EBITDA Margin 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
EBIT Margin 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
PBT Margin 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
PAT Margin 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Income Tax Rate 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.9 33.9 34.1 30.4 24.3
Excise Duty Rate 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - -
RoE 15.8 14.7 12.8 11.9 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.7 12.5
RoCE 1.0 5.3 5.5 4.5 5.4 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.8

Growth rates (%)


Revenues 32.1 14.4 10.8 17.7 8.1 13.5 16.2 1.9 18.6
EBITDA 27.3 61.8 35.7 (4.2) 16.3 31.5 (12.1) 7.5 (2.2)
PAT 12.3 9.9 5.4 7.4 3.7 8.3 6.5 8.4 21.9

Major Costs as % of Net Sales


Cost of Goods Sold 95.4 95.3 95.3 95.4 95.4 95.3 95.7 95.5 95.5
Staff Cost 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing expenses 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
Marketing & selling expenses 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Other Expenses 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Turnover ratios (%)


Debtors Turnover ratio 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 1.2
Current Liabilities Turnover Ratio 6.5 7.0 6.2 5.9 6.6 9.1 7.0 6.7 7.1
Inventory Turnover Ratio 2.4 4.4 5.2 3.8 4.9 4.9 3.7 6.6 6.6
Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.4

Other ratios
Net debt/Equity (x) (2.1) 0.5 2.1 0.3 1.3 0.8 (0.6) 1.8 1.2
FCF/EPS (%) 962.3 (513.3) (911.8) 705.4 (577.8) 800.5 704.7 (1,945.8) 4.7
OCF/Sales (%) 2.9 (0.6) (0.8) 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.2 (2.6) 0.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

10
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Price charts
Hatsun Agro Heritage Foods
1,600 600
1,400
1,200
1,000 400

(Rs)
800
600

(Rs)
200
400
200
0 0

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-19

Dec-21

Dec-22
Dec-20
Parag Milk Foods Dodla Dairy
180 700
160 650
140 600
120
550
100
(Rs)

(Rs)
500
80
60 450
40 400
20 350
0 300

May-22
Jan-22
Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Oct-21
Jul-21

Aug-22

Dec-22
Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Source: Bloomberg

11
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
In case of industry/sector reports or a report contain multiple stocks, the rating/recommendation for a particular stock may be based on the last released stock specific
report for that company.”

This report may be distributed in Singapore by ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch). Any recipients of this report in Singapore should contact ICICI Securities,
Inc. (Singapore branch) in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The contact details of ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch) are
as follows: Address: 10 Collyer Quay, #40-92 Ocean Financial Tower, Singapore - 049315, Tel: +65 6232 2451 and email: navneet_babbar@icicisecuritiesinc.com,
Rishi_agrawal@icicisecuritiesinc.com.

"In case of eligible investors based in Japan, charges for brokerage services on execution of transactions do not in substance constitute charge for research reports
and no charges are levied for providing research reports to such investors."

New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Aniruddha Joshi, CA; Manoj Menon, MBA, CMA; Karan Bhuwania, MBA; Pranjal Garg, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that
all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation
was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and
are not associated persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the
companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution
of financial products.
ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with
Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited
Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a
subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life
insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates
might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI
Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives
of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc
as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com
to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Institutional
Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Retail
Research.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained
herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to
any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein
on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that
may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in
compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company,
or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy
or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or
solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers
may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities
discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The
recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates
or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities
markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without
notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject
company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from
the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage
services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its
associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation
of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of
this report.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the
report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/
beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category
of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
This report has not been prepared by ICICI Securities, Inc. However, ICICI Securities, Inc. has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical
information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

12

You might also like