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December 7, 2022
INDIA
BSE Sensex: 62626
Dairy
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and
distributor of this report
Takeaways from GCMMF’s (Amul) FY22 annual report
After a year of subdued demand due to covid led restrictions in FY21, Amul reported
strong revenue growth of 18.6% in FY22 YoY. Most consumer products’ revenue
Sector update grew in double digits, and our analysis of market and growth rates of Amul indicates
the company has likely gained market share in most segments. The company
continues to strengthen its business moats: (1) Amul brand and sub brands like
Heritage Foods (BUY) EPIC, Kool, Amulya, and tru, (2) distribution network of 1mn outlets, (3) strong
connect with 3.64mn farmers and (4) 94 milk processing units pan-India.
Dodla Dairy (BUY) Management expects Amul to grow its revenue to Rs18,000bn in next 25 years, to
Hatsun Agro (HOLD) become the biggest food company in the world. Top picks in dairy sector: Heritage
Foods (Buy) and Dodla Dairy (Buy).
Parag Milk Foods (HOLD)
Strong revenue growth in FY22: Amul reported revenue growth of 18.6% in FY22,
after muted growth of just 1.9% in FY21. Inflation in milk prices and strong volume
growth across segments drove revenue growth for the company. Gross and EBITDA
margins stood at 4.5% and 0.4%, respectively, in FY22. Profitability was stable YoY.
Amul continued introducing new products across categories in FY22.
Consumer products growing well: Most value-added products of Amul have done
well in FY22. Revenue growth rates of key products were as follows: Milk-based
beverages (36%), ice cream (50%), ghee (24%), butter (17%), dahi (18%) and cream
(44%). We believe Amul has gained market share in most consumer product
segments. Exports were up 145% YoY.
Efforts to strengthen distribution channel: Amul has a pan-India network of 10,000
distributors with 1mn retail outlets serviced through its 76 sales offices. We note the
company is aggressively expanding (1) its sales offices (added 6 branches in FY22)
and (2) distribution reach to towns with population of 10,000+. It has established direct
distribution in 3,600 such towns.
Investments in strengthening other moats: Amul has increased milk procurement
outside Gujarat to 16.2% in FY22 from 12.4% in FY21. For dairy companies, such
moves could potentially reduce dependence on one state and enable the sale of more
fresh products in other states. The company has also increased milk processing units
to 94.
Stock calls: We maintain Heritage Foods and Dodla Dairy as our top picks in dairy
sector with BUY rating. While we remain structurally positive on Hatsun, we need more
comfort on valuations to turn bullish. Hence, we rate HOLD on Hatsun. We also
maintain HOLD rating on Parag. Key risks: Higher-than-expected inflation in milk
prices, irrational competition or delay in price hikes.
Key financials of GCMMF (Amul)
Research Analysts: Year to March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Revenues (Rsmn) 2,07,504 2,29,851 2,70,625 2,92,463 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Aniruddha Joshi
aniruddha.joshi@icicisecurities.com Growth (%) 14.4 10.8 17.7 8.1 13.5 16.2 1.9 18.6
+91 22 6807 7249 EBITDA (Rsmn) 1,113 1,510 1,447 1,683 2,214 1,946 2,091 2,045
Manoj Menon Growth (%) 61.8 35.7 (4.2) 16.3 31.5 (12.1) 7.5 (2.2)
manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com PAT (Rsmn) 415 438 470 488 528 562 609 743
+91 22 6807 7209 Growth (%) 9.9 5.4 7.4 3.7 8.3 6.5 8.4 21.9
Karan Bhuwania EBITDA margin (%) 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
karan.bhuwania@icicisecurities.com PAT margin (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
+91 22 6807 7351 RoE (%) 14.7 12.8 11.9 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.7 12.5
Pranjal Garg RoCE (%) 5.3 5.5 4.5 5.4 5.6 4.3 4.2 2.8
pranjal.garg@icicisecurities.com
Milk procurement (mnpd) 14.9 17.0 17.6 20.4 23.0 21.6 24.7 26.4
+91 22 6807 7650
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
We note the company continues to invest in improving customer reach to drive volume
growth. Notably, it has opened 27 new sales branches in the past 8 years.
(%)
2,00,000 15.0
1,50,000 10.0
1,00,000
5.0
50,000
- -
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY08
FY11
FY13
FY16
FY18
Product-wise revenue growth rates: We note most value-added products of Amul are
doing well. Growth rates of dairy products were as follows: Milk-based beverages (36%),
ice cream (50%), ghee (24%), butter (17%), dahi (18%) and cream (44%). Revenue
growth for fresh milk was 12% YoY. Based on our analysis of the market as well as
Amul’s growth rates, we believe the company has likely gained market share in most
segments. Exports were up 145% YoY in FY22.
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Rising milk collection of Amul and increase in procurement prices
Although Amul has reported 9.7% CAGR in milk procurement over FY07-22, we note
its milk procurement has increased by 6.9% YoY in FY22. Its milk procurement outside
Gujarat grew 39.2% YoY in FY22, much faster than milk procurement in Gujarat.
The company’s milk procurement (fats) price has also increased from Rs800/kg in FY21
to Rs820 in FY22, indicating an increase of 2.5%.
Chart 2: Rising milk procurement by Amul… Chart 3: …and higher milk procurement prices
500
(Rs/kg fat)
15
400
10 300
200
5
100
- 0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY07
FY08
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY15
FY09
FY18
Source: Company, I-Sec research
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
We note it opened six new sales branches in FY22 and plans to open another 14
branches in FY23.
Chart 4: Marketing spends to of net sales Chart 5: Marketing spends to gross profits
3.5
58.0
3.0 57.0
56.0
2.5
55.0
2.0
54.0
1.5 53.0
(%)
(%)
52.0
1.0
51.0
0.5
50.0
- 49.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY18
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY08
4
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 3: Supply chain and distribution network of Amul
5
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 6: Veterinary cases resolved by Amul Chart 7: Steady growth in animal feed sales
5.0 3.0
4.5
4.0 2.5
3.5
2.0
3.0
(mn MT)
2.5 1.5
(mn)
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0 0.0
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY12
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY21
FY22
Source: Company, I-Sec research
While Amul’s milk procurement outside Gujarat was flat YoY in FY21, it increased 39.2%
in FY22.
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY16
FY17
Source: Company, I-Sec research *Milk procured outside Gujarat/ Total milk procurement
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Launch of new products
Amul has introduced multiple new variants over the past four years. It has also
introduced premium variants which will drive overall realisations upwards, in our view.
We also note the company has launched a new protein range consisting of protein
buttermilk and protein lassi.
7
Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Chart 9: Key financial ratios of GCMMF (Amul)
7.0
Gross margin PAT margin
0.40
6.0
0.35
5.0 0.30
4.0 0.25
(%)
0.20
3.0
(%)
0.15
2.0
0.10
1.0 0.05
- -
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
RoE RoCE 8,000 OCF FCF
18.0 6,000
16.0 4,000
14.0 2,000
12.0 (Rs mn) 0
(2,000)
10.0
(%)
(4,000)
8.0
(6,000)
6.0
(8,000)
4.0 (10,000)
2.0 (12,000)
- (14,000)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY13
400
(days)
(%)
20.0 (5)
300
15.0
200 10.0 (10)
100 5.0
0 0.0 (15)
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY18
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 6: Profit and loss statement
(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Gross Sales 1,81,715 2,07,809 2,30,170 2,71,016 2,92,618 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Less: Excise Duty 280 304 319 392 155 - - - -
Net Sales 1,81,435 2,07,504 2,29,851 2,70,625 2,92,463 3,31,943 3,85,757 3,93,222 4,66,265
Growth (%) 32.1 14.4 10.8 17.7 8.1 13.5 16.2 1.9 18.6
Expenditure
Cost of Goods Sold 1,73,120 1,97,732 2,19,043 2,58,198 2,79,116 3,16,447 3,69,001 3,75,664 4,45,303
Staff Cost 1,123 1,206 1,049 1,635 1,545 1,742 2,184 2,039 2,482
Manufacturing expenses 1,103 1,349 1,415 1,498 1,687 2,006 1,901 2,299 3,014
Marketing & selling expenses 4,512 5,142 5,914 6,913 7,429 8,378 9,482 9,862 11,878
Other Expenses 888 961 921 932 1,003 1,157 1,245 1,267 1,543
EBITDA 688 1,113 1,510 1,447 1,683 2,214 1,946 2,091 2,045
EBITDA margin (%) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Depreciation 659 799 871 883 944 1,248 1,360 1,377 1,319
EBIT 29 314 639 564 739 966 585 714 727
Interest Expense & Bank Exps 82 86 327 188 297 464 245 169 108
Other Income 629 406 355 340 307 297 513 330 363
Profit Before Tax 575 634 667 717 749 799 854 875 982
Income Taxes 197 218 230 246 262 271 291 266 239
Effective tax rate (%) 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.4 34.9 33.9 34.1 30.4 24.3
Profit After Tax 378 415 438 470 488 528 562 609 743
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Table 8: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn)
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
OCF before W/C changes 930 1,205 1,210 1,268 1,582 1,704 1,735 1,755 1,868
W/c Changes 4,365 (2,347) (3,106) 3,076 (1,287) 4,296 3,071 (11,923) (1,371)
OCF After W/C Changes 5,296 (1,142) (1,895) 4,344 294 6,000 4,805 (10,169) 497
Cash Flow from Investing
Capital Expenditure (1,759) (1,009) (2,107) (1,047) (3,148) (1,776) (970) (1,696) (508)
Disposal 102 18 10 20 37 2 127 7 46
Investments - (1,600) (1,637) 2,499 (2,494) (3,778) 3,964 (612) (1,355)
Acquisitions - - - - - - - - -
Net Cash used in Investing (1,657) (2,591) (3,734) 1,473 (5,606) (5,553) 3,121 (2,300) (1,817)
Cash Flow from Financing
Changes in Share Capital 0 500 400 500 - - - - 1,000
Changes in Loans 884 3,780 5,764 (5,614) 6,208 (51) (8,205) 14,025 1,751
Dividends & change in reserves (150) (150) (213) (275) (341) (360) (360) (360) (360)
Net Cash used in Financing 734 4,130 5,951 (5,389) 5,866 (412) (8,565) 13,665 2,391
Extraordinary Items - - - - - - - - -
Changes in Cash & Equivalents 4,373 398 322 429 555 36 (638) 1,196 1,071
Opening Cash & Equivalents 1,894 1,609 2,007 2,329 2,758 3,312 3,348 2,710 3,906
Closing Cash & Equivalents 6,267 2,007 2,329 2,758 3,312 3,348 2,710 3,906 4,977
Free Cash Flow 3,639 (2,133) (3,992) 3,318 (2,817) 4,225 3,963 (11,857) 35
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Other ratios
Net debt/Equity (x) (2.1) 0.5 2.1 0.3 1.3 0.8 (0.6) 1.8 1.2
FCF/EPS (%) 962.3 (513.3) (911.8) 705.4 (577.8) 800.5 704.7 (1,945.8) 4.7
OCF/Sales (%) 2.9 (0.6) (0.8) 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.2 (2.6) 0.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
Price charts
Hatsun Agro Heritage Foods
1,600 600
1,400
1,200
1,000 400
(Rs)
800
600
(Rs)
200
400
200
0 0
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-19
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-20
Parag Milk Foods Dodla Dairy
180 700
160 650
140 600
120
550
100
(Rs)
(Rs)
500
80
60 450
40 400
20 350
0 300
May-22
Jan-22
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Oct-21
Jul-21
Aug-22
Dec-22
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Source: Bloomberg
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Dairy sector, December 7, 2022 ICICI Securities
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12