año CaudalMaximo Paso 1: Suponer que la mejor función que se ajusta a los datos es la normal

1 95.05 Entonces consideramos los parámetros de la normal:

2 105.21 Paso 2: Calcular los parámetros de la DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL
3 108.75 media 152.2476 Desv.Estandar
4 123 varianza 1902.042627
5 132.49 Paso 3: Utilizar la FUNCIÓN INVERSA (en este caso usaremos la inversa de la N
6 146.08 Simulación 1: 147.622687355 ,=DISTR.NORM.INV(ALEATORIO(),$E$4,$H$4)
7 158.48 Simulación 2: 136.388523124
8 177 Simulación 3: 207.165481119
9 193.78 Simulación 3: 156.451803344
10 212.48 85.9125383011
11 98.13 123.12018619
12 105.81 117.764463845
13 110.77 97.6338073545
14 123.22 177.34723246
15 134.1 157.486485106
16 153.64 214.760142675
17 162.29 133.293101889
18 182.53 194.365599128
19 193.88 247.072720336
20 217.52 144.601465188
21 100.18 165.55567532
22 106.4 122.751932878
23 114.31 188.809677406
24 124.31 110.813805214
25 136.22 180.642482628
26 153.97 155.024834694
27 164.35 128.138351903
28 183.11 76.1708472922
29 197.58 93.7816528829
30 239.07 149.922569365
31 101.66 180.999170426
32 107.43 200.51540293
33 116.69 187.111913465
34 127.82 176.605205158
35 144.22 192.015266664
36 154.8 160.835907457
37 169.18 126.35349331
38 183.49 137.161355961
39 207.78 74.1099364255
40 256.62 188.616601465
41 101.76 178.519256412
42 107.62 99.942280159
43 119.52 112.211275715
44 128.15 93.1861017843
45 145.79 41.4136134163
46 156.8 119.125651396
47 169.64 122.978828667
48 184.98 249.811036058
49 208.18 122.745785962
50 266.54 130.919630666
137.088797199
186.545287428
220.170657345
152.75367347
202.08506632
166.267675556
158.552883752
124.08198148
69.1200142049
101.580892422
139.955956072
171.055729047
198.893532817
107.592003062
65.7957492893
163.338686315
210.836360121
172.01450533
168.028779304
168.496393686
165.654113724
109.827158939
207.284349298
145.718712778
142.777650481
139.666722193
206.250041619
115.800416802
137.728819884
4.75388413331
177.14969576
 182.591325649
133.062049214
90.7782076069
161.66250206
165.739168626
163.381126134
111.31772617
159.385050956
142.381798478
57.6362552035
160.285332094
114.357311208
117.392413803
168.532818292
203.864986796
114.877472206
165.642173541
214.678056609
201.906168582
71.2430911653
125.557700248
231.336691499
186.148160641
128.689798433
147.447897019
Simulación 100 166.094773317
197.27674879
105.840230703
188.455125691
168.588615964
86.2340384158
186.007863573
152.873156415
140.054242098
142.147087001
149.389597465
123.004081209
173.479659784
175.893998809
193.110463724
170.057436499
 141.69354333
132.338378706
177.086271248
97.5415550706
186.781252116
92.2403111735
131.210787376
207.202383925
122.02767132
171.151574001
279.929632264
42.6079974644
203.328842849
65.3473994803
127.102488833
165.473358408
166.13582528
204.098877952
163.927720931
167.054793714
141.156943091
46.236822937
131.812545848
200.361087036
188.779501702
96.6082174066
131.882562353
200.72768996
236.504538712
159.716198085
148.595089277
82.9675111518
158.492183163
139.894481187
87.385973968
98.5174111251
145.970875215
172.436625548
175.984099328
109.592112097
127.301155126
128.450757203
157.881621038
148.068919721
142.889948802
131.283332744
128.574279435
153.553988356
110.309246697
161.641768385
227.500819466
102.747581986
128.856362011
188.348452685
167.378320951
166.284236823
176.211160483
92.3458990727
140.619627367
160.01882311
151.823719533
119.241675775
79.8813476759
133.437247438
171.680579453
205.893208148
123.042789669
238.746772698
77.0841354338
59.6971570542
144.579954125
178.307642469
193.042117654
153.704566165
140.162047162
100.937849821
144.461959241
191.765128526
75.8506077267
182.325344504
152.196491524
150.01787865
229.640959381
169.849595214
145.864779767
168.906463231
185.002061547
214.191708544
175.620688275
155.745419051
168.42720516
139.862230871
79.301932554
255.412661836
238.278681507
185.494000175
130.923681777
162.519380211
91.5099953404
147.590582745
127.893172403
156.544664502
189.157809119
99.4650193967
203.942979829
172.620502716
125.586256682
180.645523477
184.237956234
21.0530168924
167.395320667
168.965224101
126.019636145
148.092355895
144.375260273
177.589422364
156.373852239
146.777792626
124.690427326
149.146058178
155.617156004
120.500227338
178.671267877
118.174014121
139.147751776
82.9177264269
166.904734425
107.604127946
138.895710672
170.342702626
185.402323999
118.557328588
215.373834166
189.175040397
137.121097528
136.714562488
143.167102096
165.787244361
192.348863602
109.468075385
146.106497166
144.38409185
188.949117681
224.84585819
147.769823717
153.933953999
141.623770764
149.416189821
171.04292399
129.614254143
79.8164504324
186.804033136
147.70862783
125.467902811
159.149808681
224.672394404
127.627994904
223.829746989
195.78566774
137.457163287
202.082503368
179.231525849
188.080590092
183.48392174
165.598610791
117.269322291
117.560478395
108.631040507
186.489432813
237.685392493
85.0900210564
170.777772204
139.419188047
134.150065774
117.514108566
83.3418981527
104.292862868
149.115175435
174.831122619
204.628238984
116.132998629
133.425899763
119.217581244
140.486338091
185.984261916
239.484772937
118.883609368
101.306481045
166.200328889
90.6602834069
173.672018883
142.997918386
196.836636293
200.908181613
199.842343811
129.001495599
207.915324291
151.504074783
139.819782344
134.396198595
116.736418441
185.928951226
159.088383234
107.666083268
164.683235445
130.543880841
186.437571784
155.595708207
161.33722106
139.726736125
146.653021447
188.433806343
190.788935705
70.7905880248
166.851058718
148.941110217
203.305731603
110.365763234
134.706153406
158.779083873
118.303748413
117.017809789
189.163724537
218.096056837
152.045739937
176.441192376
229.63195647
110.817629686
217.628866025
104.107954611
144.635944767
132.691180802
136.635486688
216.467929167
160.670600614
160.159530055
184.93269964
92.5357316799
215.294193352
214.251776304
243.223122231
207.72554599
122.921013918
180.550566232
134.225249444
136.462688592
121.722298083
198.586137442
220.256318656
140.024522421
135.673664558
184.850529056
150.521009206
80.0728126639
91.2541101058
219.186063932
127.61474229
145.619019852
153.293534835
195.606086499
195.865703119
113.147246123
167.719909053
135.079715903
127.475803232
232.660929873
200.700292177
159.550133602
172.890200747
111.510675278
120.97103844
111.877951954
204.469581404
231.633527111
176.428268818
205.639903212
161.008435431
153.849297831
132.912204319
198.521452113
115.719713677
74.7425318201
149.078356594
183.932049249
142.837415789
203.580773582
158.798890407
163.001393227
130.517334503
233.338929894
90.816130182
100.76639199
162.399964515
209.816028385
190.734233833
143.877743956
149.253519844
229.00219261
167.721281795
158.777029004
131.662919588
138.00900154
186.413300561
123.147899651
149.375748228
197.326765927
163.552856402
179.928551434
177.28391484
172.581903363
148.020969628
123.014635075
99.751577059
101.213005119
166.937430361
157.527745261
154.970971071
197.175779516
147.751573979
174.455280935
155.557645608
197.599922158
241.58685828
136.213987353
156.577547446
99.1298699279
224.755666825
213.835878596
234.075416873
225.487320838
224.688181887
103.753900671
144.325070987
157.238176066
98.9554010562
177.068079061
185.205831285
181.857371922
111.88576068
185.089005461
204.289964283
206.126973578
150.160533982
127.769523484
177.609892014
110.882229019
184.487556997
164.751032051
166.631853584
113.026917287
170.36334957
217.318160793
168.412139115
245.216809719
141.452763796
169.882415075
125.890127973
119.174403251
116.023894552
68.9834130731
103.409145964
239.471257972
101.247154724
96.8759623364
188.844621747
106.285506146
182.852499177
153.189218806
159.174760637
148.723226856
106.817762766
171.023839115
211.230902419
163.292000328
79.1445008038
191.115317261
94.4965773898
178.224451568
191.659976405
158.641838533
54.7406474642
109.221183321
173.554079976
194.65444708
196.919274224
157.538400747
114.347067215
135.629380921
226.32664362
177.122862106
150.116286767
182.822108632
257.025370612
138.22404521
155.463776961
125.252052609
125.905581295
72.2677893179
136.059905278
173.865300158
107.812964261
117.549422007
163.307700672
226.931815686
136.082978704
95.1049298783
180.571931342
186.901304375
133.510829932
112.784186611
224.450220752
172.774043989
152.314218047
102.288727949
125.59496306
105.062446511
136.487430135
161.439402225
148.005433009
137.277471741
219.085587418
203.649251208
168.6654244
147.996463329
152.002878356
94.0878823054
142.051302839
145.011166868
135.308606059
165.539069158
236.911753824
215.075739483
125.523722018
208.4125227
78.3502649315
86.7806673982
198.70734938
112.558760172
177.105238984
191.701716993
124.882430082
181.917550947
202.493311931
125.497383211
106.733994454
183.064857006
153.661933308
127.961283773
136.144433698
84.4698101905
209.345527232
 111.7260984
113.36624245
138.3397649
163.976730278
103.40919003
154.270159991
169.666268171
110.706415444
186.922677427
121.742456881
177.751413328
121.680437412
188.948093479
113.808100995
198.378274341
188.169411156
221.081760682
216.529096859
124.051832213
141.555887692
221.481209089
141.441684798
188.866366882
207.909217467
154.817434304
170.944481023
143.658215801
83.6391396128
201.456165317
134.448696166
211.263423967
101.093762299
147.359864446
183.637335537
115.334664907
216.961228305
179.703670644
161.024723875
151.909522037
194.388180374
229.343887093
144.399762279
113.619661078
112.355544241
135.945749487
109.069703279
149.9310364
188.430626494
114.60264908
120.594175551
108.457717326
117.862799046
198.896078276
65.0272468625
148.339030689
209.449658367
107.133972294
179.275579444
135.124944483
202.587024684
135.844087655
97.4995209732
126.997642251
94.1607161334
111.561210258
163.880976534
153.421712527
213.635149974
121.494135445
161.18136046
164.558772908
200.1672406
209.250925207
205.978219096
67.640156962
151.428518266
121.98261622
129.661551805
146.113984768
103.140912392
167.691908508
193.428653286
160.508335923
135.597570961
135.824875483
169.746875955
183.955175799
165.071318518
81.7816145961
135.482748386
105.673914753
172.518640261
195.945682745
187.694351149
125.587776442
110.11603706
171.869872372
159.370152261
212.876150574
212.594803802
171.097341186
188.075433076
225.984374101
104.90155686
158.56608873
113.311088223
147.492193093
146.134129239
31.2448420935
125.81962821
128.46080075
134.963382167
150.682968334
52.6272039488
131.848671603
102.681506149
213.758714578
163.116911338
147.247671126
107.006628399
143.738646317
163.606481775
181.98879361
124.559091164
125.810610551
46.8041274875
164.00550348
126.326924654
118.147620052
89.5661401951
161.723987505
122.705239702
157.617527935
165.413581791
136.851353164
165.862457887
163.261311751
102.065632624
162.628860884
121.513775314
190.969246258
140.028895771
176.888187076
198.44659846
158.334843726
99.0462514611
162.113365702
150.107053187
177.739754559
140.52255278
108.208264604
113.905916434
121.618239309
60.4370335561
153.787240846
174.453886463
156.240482889
225.213227688
100.952419019
230.876027304
186.351709631
44.5097489248
200.730194367
155.912283621
146.451176132
107.933883134
71.7036205159
137.676845159
151.926219495
168.971486176
109.241937139
181.346134829
188.023856777
156.021128435
165.592063818
145.790384396
118.252655067
197.74184027
180.005602151
183.400565815
212.618460505
192.680907031
184.998772939
225.367019341
182.14282368
71.482398269
180.985527481
100.02880716
201.904842285
130.739572524
154.696982401
139.210842571
135.13712355
183.610859868
127.755499854
198.819080914
176.473051407
151.081602455
212.334369131
168.73692196
99.2525151637
150.275981354
183.579590541
135.932520066
165.082218806
 172.94305341
146.604941726
154.61748635
131.94172514
230.761509642
161.835501611
145.822104389
206.80759538
162.488679279
192.099984857
147.772472872
128.462372511
87.2135324193
120.499158752
173.457509896
226.199321225
167.590508372
247.794090213
117.416017925
84.1490417223
133.771936866
209.652188332
139.876282986
155.366911588
191.796220604
132.637935589
104.323497928
127.858513406
190.260514168
96.7044536476
115.052114855
115.345274432
198.092702485
161.919502387
182.445523647
180.562468381
202.523382418
154.448529274
133.404394111
234.475680965
149.795463073
131.225851536
174.952421936
197.944036472
167.443628252
144.566420364
123.854637594
56.6181644233
96.3386013974
137.29856862
169.400717217
87.979860578
127.705808531
142.175655746
106.259917066
143.269069566
89.0791333664
162.922843549
176.987808077
203.691351052
57.6870323704
181.361917938
251.479776089
139.480437232
142.928329477
117.945942049
95.7355952384
161.649206732
153.48782208
171.883286039
181.790114845
170.239753221
158.316330837
258.691665455
173.632030087
216.023887611
142.37441044
158.456139874
108.009818532
111.810772897
126.048410688
120.527639932
94.5052963635
157.011372412
219.281172935
209.607540631
117.41080252
203.776809613
162.001306209
147.355777473
147.900066352
195.397117848
185.168611322
183.566462562
168.368099867
157.604928324
110.828952216
152.134302951
95.2041942229
135.269274023
158.857296958
147.847484589
159.449514467
210.986256732
105.579664443
115.9065783
155.523636319
122.839025887
173.915391874
168.942101329
211.665066455
235.28785382
110.588772018
192.533586825
145.957716507
159.615641832
212.294920665
137.432101261
136.119305605
111.293720413
102.646164429
171.394543338
220.94442754
234.058763907
157.712856914
145.974530264
197.929565088
185.583796457
137.998106066
151.341924228
183.033448739
74.7641846926
133.750638557
156.1251176
89.8488647719
270.253347216
212.192069578
117.676320431
165.704290387
121.977721762
180.950437842
144.5945888
172.056622915
215.959427293
181.937298748
241.924425589
134.842246067
195.634868967
163.037654818
191.373528903
129.533825046
158.914286556
239.389530274
121.423140947
144.50379336
174.494935552
112.288646991
211.360314627
68.8766542636
151.478241165
133.018119546
106.720196035
133.084877787
111.806803981
 106.3547127
187.483876834
116.839583254
152.653070573
205.257444467
130.813199944
156.351518301
215.439407819
111.826245274
156.099753318
116.718451609
142.216582916
139.941938904
166.118337917
101.348716404
84.5961676032
128.255145595
154.83366788
153.518774112
238.042280463
181.60317752
146.955896856
194.898243853
176.610238764
203.330269184
163.907897216
152.099298307
176.760814477
202.609366253
154.608078842
199.420931546
172.296969138
242.960224418
152.143509567
131.017039201
138.514341822
191.427129059
-12.836855272
76.7716567075
150.123290155
132.848723456
 90.573979818
126.382776662
150.329093778
139.365123898
112.380812981
153.055503924
180.515191659
172.525792121
52.972300789
206.346841575
121.583355549
161.85591841
87.7834044955
241.045060309
105.88065275
133.066514664
150.217236299
110.86301894
72.777465488
98.5992406651
191.352739535
184.277662583
124.66885294
167.540621516
25.0978289183
186.370053489
160.15516198
108.715327974
134.242683017
203.980544061
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116.649541208
142.928945452
70.7556800967
86.6854942476
121.807653883
191.889529426
114.966757263
a a los datos es la normal

ÓN NORMAL
43.61241368

o usaremos la inversa de la NORMAL

ALEATORIO(),$E$4,$H$4)
año CaudalMaxlnx Ejercicio: Simular los caudales considerando LA FUNCIÓN DE DISTRIBUCIÓN
1 95.05 4.5544 Paso 1: Suponer que los datos provienen (o se ajustan) a una LOGNORMAL
2 105.21 4.65596 Paso 2: Calcular los parámetros de una LOGNORMAL
3 108.75 4.68905 media 4.987241483 desviación estan 0.2769664215
4 123 4.81218 varianza 1902.042627
5 132.49 4.88651 Paso 3: Simulaciones considerando LA FUNCIÓN INVERSA en este caso de la LOG
6 146.08 4.98415 Simulación 1 85.4448095741759
7 158.48 5.06563 Simulación 2 91.0039333625023
8 177 5.17615 Simulación 3 192.794084348749
9 193.78 5.26672 134.62360817562
10 212.48 5.35885 148.185547773792
11 98.13 4.58629 194.605334163783
12 105.81 4.66165 130.288016382825
13 110.77 4.70746 106.765633498806
14 123.22 4.81397 138.592382327765
15 134.1 4.89859 134.085187962341
16 153.64 5.03461 105.740310749936
17 162.29 5.08938 109.283172715212
18 182.53 5.20691 144.721278236405
19 193.88 5.26724 159.25731370602
20 217.52 5.38229 142.80531591987
21 100.18 4.60697 181.971067021999
22 106.4 4.66721 166.41440462301
23 114.31 4.73891 119.057465892314
24 124.31 4.82278 166.115447182441
25 136.22 4.91427 216.23919680959
26 153.97 5.03676 152.436782852408
27 164.35 5.102 141.288659608052
28 183.11 5.21009 120.987993511207
29 197.58 5.28614 223.245465202906
30 239.07 5.47676 110.794611632476
31 101.66 4.62163 170.442593899154
32 107.43 4.67684 207.632634357688
33 116.69 4.75952 168.228752869146
34 127.82 4.85062 111.519179837831
35 144.22 4.97134 70.2984190712524
36 154.8 5.04213 86.3617516988142
37 169.18 5.13096 145.863518662493
38 183.49 5.21216 129.289073469025
39 207.78 5.33648 135.080138549458
40 256.62 5.5476 101.800743792457
41 101.76 4.62262 89.2992605310051
42 107.62 4.67861 168.83588856775
43 119.52 4.78348 156.315263780493
44 128.15 4.8532 154.602979265283
45 145.79 4.98217 125.099757126118
46 156.8 5.05497 133.864948860741
47 169.64 5.13368 99.8982741723478
48 184.98 5.22025 134.225655191311
49 208.18 5.3384 169.207578351374
50 266.54 5.58552 118.214128080972
198.499623995451
189.051527058963
170.83357938632
195.057414835029
154.153727431187
108.671035592968
185.002828211381
Simulación1 0 0 108.737760844958
190.109696805011
213.535784272215
147.666625844485
225.89072962936
224.005361982895
179.167361728143
98.7605142251978
152.293228309997
180.803529981763
95.5465978270463
99.5334724983234
67.7656623427924
253.869277638355
152.405611809588
221.663137900232
199.382685463068
152.51394561285
143.81629389756
200.653520279967
133.891484537172
163.705937856635
227.032251512092
169.32250552994
 176.6453776636
111.738983940216
184.739704480833
339.905402740853
200.419748557432
150.075863336152
173.150594836391
203.113572432088
149.414895237653
205.358699671209
109.244198647703
175.545359877534
152.62659036639
153.857918815711
377.527755276668
138.23435554209
136.022649131929
95.6883052642896
114.294841672921
89.5998966418032
124.909413928873
137.429625882801
89.7392792412703
159.994153620152
174.002212029599
171.095213336601
124.781132589445
167.167737689134
129.026987379803
124.402327028898
183.192833095821
192.823828569605
199.856865506481
164.865777789024
141.649556591705
104.730671373115
79.1124769374405
158.73600640562
148.659734100207
179.948109761381
200.582072067624
109.280781205989
181.879971488364
192.112148450035
282.438971219218
192.141288795198
145.101051717924
120.906162728594
136.496068793211
112.331660564268
84.930987876437
153.713824849305
128.277327420447
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133.694813353131
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174.610612022648
83.2730695248283
275.621522299329
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124.023446330241
172.333281619222
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88.8146648428054
91.1027683895188
89.1021752316427
166.936179817706
203.50184683931
167.677448694211
146.551814593612
171.89340394933
118.226808461827
195.021060974678
128.955295937902
142.406006523158
189.12846515056
177.590030455002
221.335444923567
232.025551125959
132.112648511363
220.352433212416
95.698501862655
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70.7012139993129
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209.717926554337
89.3565042005408
158.003656242254
104.550583012053
158.092605608644
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214.490368830266
113.938305649928
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153.894216217858
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112.137197346918
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136.166247997207
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115.346643897223
230.245823316213
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167.818102133184
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108.364737459382
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155.740617426044
189.896010466821
78.1903417604111
185.854419130011
200.792786319687
128.17872070128
261.202263149372
150.806916218484
160.185444000013
243.621645787835
195.019347442822
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115.658242455681
167.598147585943
228.314280533685
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214.277595230698
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109.243785082191
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247.862548201925
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171.561205593425
221.16157746915
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191.967299568806
162.925635530294
126.607841077122
130.044307695563
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164.965832867397
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153.950267438871
175.115646027851
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178.363998590115
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96.5096023184182
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97.6549638323089
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CIÓN DE DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG-NORMAL
una LOGNORMAL

SA en este caso de la LOGNORMAL