Journal of Economic Growth

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-022-09218-0

The Influence of Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation,

Exports and Exchange Rates On Economic Growth in
OIC Couuntries in 2011 - 2021

M. Maulana1 · Abdul Qoyum1

Abstract
This study aims to identify the effect of Forgein Direct Investment, Inflation, Exports and
Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)
Countries. The population in this study are countries that have joined the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The number of samples used was 15 countries using a
purposive sampling technique. This type of research is quantitative using secondary data
which is panel data from the world bank website. The data analysis technique uses panel
data regression analysis to select the best model. The results showed that Forgein Direct
Investment and Export had a positive and significant effect on economic growth.
Meanwhile, inflation and exchange rates have a negative effect on economic growth.

Keywords Forgein Direct Investment· Inflation· Exports· Exchange Rates . Economic Growth

JEL Classification D90 · I12 · O10 · O11 · O33 · O40 · Z1

 M. Maulana
ariellana99@gamil.com
Abdul Qoyum

1
Research School of Economics, UIN Sunan Kalijaga University, Yogyakarta, Indonesian

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1 Introduction
The process of changing a country's economy on an ongoing basis for a better
purpose for a certain period of time. Economic growth is defined as the process of increasing
the amount of production in an economy as seen from the increase in state income (Tamimah,
Herianingrum and Arifin, 2019). Economic growth is the subject of global discussion in
various parties for further study in both government and non-government organizations
(Yeisa and Rani, 2020).
Economic growth is the initial goal for achieving the successful development of a
country, this is the focus of goals carried out by various countries, as is the case with several
countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (Rahmawati, 2022). There are
various indicators in measuring economic growth, namely by using the increase in Gross
Domestic Product. GDP is the total value of the production of goods and services in a country
over a period of one year (Tamimah, Herianingrum and Arifin, 2019).
The Islamic Conference Organization is the organization with the second largest
number after the United Nations (UN) organization. Currently, the OIC has 57 members, with
an average Muslim majority population in the African and Asian regions. However, several
empirical facts show that the population where most Muslims live are relatively lagging
behind in terms of performance, which will certainly have an impact on a country's economic
growth (Wibowo, 2020). This has slowed economic growth in OIC countries by 3.8% since
2017 (OIC Economic Outlook, 2017).
Several countries in the OIC have the highest population in the world, including
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Arab Emiret Unit, Turkey,
Iran, and Bangladesh. However, this is inversely proportional to the GDP in each country -
each of these countries shows a very fluctuating trend in each annual report and has
inequality between OIC countries (Putri, 2022). Economic growth in a country cannot be
separated from the role of foreign direct investment in order to meet the needs that support
economic growth, through capital, technology and human resources (Gandhi et al., 2022).
Forgein Direct Investment or Foreign Direct Investment allows a company in that
country to move in a better direction in increasing control in international trade that is
currently operating as well as increasing the percentage of profits and wider market coverage
(Haryani and Asrida, 2021). A broad market can be obtained by carrying out international
trade and investment activities (Hanifah, 2022).
A country's economic growth is very important to see the inflation indicator.
Inflation is an increase in the price of goods that reduces value. With a high or low level of
inflation, of course it supports analyzing the impact it has on influencing a country's
economic growth (Stievany and Jalunggono, 2022).
In international business, export activities are very important to encourage
economic growth. Export activities will certainly benefit the countries of Islamic cooperation
organizations. Exports are a source of income needed by every country in an open economy
because exports can be a link for cooperation in various countries, especially OIC countries
and these export activities can increase production which encourages economic growth
(Nopiana, Habibah and Putri, 2022).
The cooperation of a country in carrying out the export business requires the
existence of currency exchange rates. The exchange rate or exchange rate of a country's
currency against the value of another country's currency is also a factor that affects a
country's economic growth (Dewi Sartika, Siddik and Choiriyah, 2019).

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There are several studies that have been conducted by Prawira, Sarifah, Jalunggono,
(2017) concerning the Influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Exports and Imports
on Indonesia's Economic Growth 1998-2017. The results show that the variables forgein
direct investment (FDI), exports, and imports together show a significant influence on
economic growth variables. Research was conducted by Salim and Fadilla (2021)
regarding the Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Indonesia. The results show that
inflation affects economic growth.
Research was conducted by Pridayanti (2013) concerning the Effects of Exports,
Imports, and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia for the 2011 – 2021
Period. The results show that import variables and exchange rates have a negative effect
while export variables have a positive effect. Research was conducted by Putra, Mukhlis
and Utomo (2017) on Analysis of the Influence of Forgien Direct Investment, Exchange
Rates on Indonesia's Economic Growth. The results show that there is an influence of
foreign direct investment variables and the exchange rate on economic growth in
Indonesia.
Based on the background above, there are still research gaps, so researchers are
interested in modifying the variables Forgein Direct Investment, Inflation, Exports and
Exchange Rates. In order to combine these four variables, tests are carried out to influence
economic growth using data from the World Bank of Islamic Cooperation Countries
(OIC). ) the 2011-2021 period which is different from previous researchers.

2 THEORETICAL BASIS
Classical Growth Theory

This theory states the importance of a factor of production to increase national

income in realizing growth. Classical economists argue that there are four factors that can
affect economic growth, including: the amount of stock of goods and capital, land area and
natural wealth, technology that is used, population and the role of excessive labor (Hanifah,
2022).

Neo-Classical Theory of Growth

The theory developed by Abramovtis and Slow explains that economic growth
depends on the development of a factor of production. To realize the most important factor
in economic growth is not an increase in labor and capital increase, but the most decisive
factors, namely technological advances, increased capabilities and skills and expertise of the
workforce (Hanifah, 2022).

Economic Growth
Economic growth is a long-term process of increasing output per capita, an
important part of analyzing economic areas (Rahmawati, 2022). With the right reasons,
because economic growth is defined as an increase in GDP or GNP, of course, it does not
look at the side of an increase that is higher or lower, both in terms of population growth and
whether there is a change in the economic structure or not (Wau, Leni and Fau, 2022).
Economic growth is a process of changing the condition of an economy in a country
on an ongoing basis to get to a good state for a certain period of time. Economic growth can
also be interpreted as a process of increasing an economy, one of which is an increase in
production capacity which is realized in the form of an increase in state income, this indicates
success in economic development in a country (Zahran, 2020).

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Forgein Direct Investment

The definition of investment, are those who have an income that is used with the
aim of investing money now to get benefits in the future not for consumption but for
investment purposes, in other words investment is a form of the initial stages of doing
business (Zahran, 2020).
According to Gandhi et al., (2022) Forgein Direct Investment is an international
flow of funds within a country where there is an industry that establishes and develops the
industry in other regions. Direct investment plays a role in supporting economic growth and
encouraging the industry to compete in international trade. Direct investment is a source of
funding in developed and developing countries.

Inflation

Inflation is an increase in commodity prices in general caused by a lack of

synchronization between commodity procurement parties (production, pricing, printing
money, etc.) with a country's level of income (Salim and Fadilla, 2021). Utama and Wardana
(2018) further explain that inflation is a scenario caused by an imbalance between commodity
demand and supply, that is, when demand exceeds supply, and the greater the disparity
between the two, the greater the threat posed by inflation to the health of the economy.

Exports

Export is an attempt to sell commodities that we own to other nations or countries in

accordance with government procedures with the aim of obtaining foreign exchange payment
transactions as well as interacting using foreign languages (Pridayanti, 2013). Export is
selling goods from within the country to abroad in a transaction that has been approved with
several conditions such as terms of sale, quality, quantity, and payment systems. A country
can sell its production goods to other countries if the goods are needed by the export
destination country or they cannot produce the goods needed until they buy production from
other countries (Anis Farida and Indah Yuliana, 2022).

Exchange Rates

According to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (DSAK) is a ratio assessing one
unit of state currency with one unit of currency with another that can be exchanged for a
certain period of time (Fasya, Rahmi and Riani, 2022). According to Saputra, Wayan and
Kesumajaya (2016) the exchange rate or exchange rate measures a currency from another
perspective, which means that the exchange rate or exchange rate is a measure of the
currency perspective expressed in other currencies.

According to Sukirno (2013) the exchange rate is the price or local currency exchange
rate to foreign currency exchange rates, actors in international trade are very concerned about
determining foreign exchange rates (forex), these exchange rates affect the costs and benefits
of goods, services and securities. .

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3 Literature Review

Research conducted by Nguyen (2019) entitled Impacts of Forgein Direct

Investment on Economic Growth in Vietnam. This study examines the impact of direct
investment (FDI) on Vietnam's economic growth during the period 1990 to 2020. This study
uses the VAR model through unit root, test, granger causality, impulse response and variance
decomposition to achieve finding the impact of FDI on economic growth. This study finds
that FDI has an impact on economic growth in the short term and is detrimental to growth in
the long term.
Research conducted by Kondyan and Yenokyan (2019) entitled The Effect of
Forgein Direct Investment On Economic Growth. This study examines FDI influencing
economic growth through its main function of capital accumulation. Reducing the growth
effect of FDI operating through accumulating models of the spillover effects of FDI can help
explain the ambiguity in the empirical evidence on the subject.
Research conducted by Stievany and Jalunggono (2022) regarding the Analysis of
the Effects of Inflation, Exports and Imports on Indonesia Economic Growth. The results of
the study show that exports and imports have a significant effect in the short and long term on
economic growth, but inflation has no significant effect in the short and long term on
economic growth.
Research conducted by Raza and Karim (2017) entitled Influence Of Systematic
Banking Crisis & Currency On The Relationship Of Export & Economic Growth: Evidence
From China. This study examines the main problem for each economy is by determining
exports that must be increased which will result in an expansion of economic growth. The
results of a valid short-term relationship analysis between exports and economic growth in
China.
Research conducted by Rani and Jora (2022) entitled The Effect Of Exchange Rate
On Economic Growth Of Nigeria. This study examines the extent to which the exchange rate
has affected economic growth from the data used covering 1987 and 2018. The findings
reveal that the exchange rate has an insignificant impact on economic growth.
Research conducted by Bimrew Sendekie Belay (2022) entitled Forgein Export Rate
And Economic Growth Of Kenya 1987 – 2019. This study examines the entire time series
analysis using data between 1987 and 2019. This research adopts an ex-post facto research
design where the analysis carried out based on descriptive statistics to measure the level of
FER and economic growth and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to determine the
long-term relationship between variables. The results of the study revealed that there was a
general increase in foreign currency exchange rates.

Forgein Direct
Inestment X1

Inflation X2

Economic
Exports X3 Growth (Y)

Exchange Rates
X4

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It can be seen from the research model above, the hypothesis is as follows:
H1: Forgein Direct Investment has a positive effect on Economic Growth
H2: Inflation has a positive effect on economic growth
H3: Exports have a positive effect on economic growth
H4: Exchange Rate has a positive effect on Economic Growth

4 Methods
In this study, the type of research used is quantitative research using panel data
regression analysis using the eviewes 10 application. In this study the dependent variable is
used, namely economic growth and the independent variable consists of foreign direct
investment, inflation, exports and exchange rates. The data in this study is data sourced from
the world bank website for 2012-2021. The population of this study is all countries that are
members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) from 2011 to 2021. The sample
in this study used a purposive sampling technique which aims to obtain a representative
sample based on predetermined criteria to suit the researchers' objectives. The criteria for this
purposive sampling method consist of OIC countries that publish complete data within the
selected period. The criteria in this study.

Table I. Research Sample

No

1 Number of Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries 57

2 Number of Islamic Cooperation Organization countries that (42)

published complete data for the period 2012-2021
Number of Samples Total Observations 165
3 15
Research Period 11 Total Observations 165
4 11
Total Observations 165
5 165

In this test, there are several different testing phases. To determine, of the research
project is called the Chow test, and it includes panel data regression testing as well as
selection of an estimation model. Conventional assumption tests include the
multicollinearity test, also known as the correlation coefficient test, the heteroscedasticity
test, also known as the Glejser test, and the autocorrelation test, also known as the Durbin
Woston test. The hypotheses are given a thorough examination in a later phase, where the
T statistic test, F statistic test, and the coefficient of determination are used .

5 Results and Discussion

Descriptive Statistics Test
Table 2. Descriptive Statistical Test Results
Y X1 X2 X3 X4
 Mean  0.005537  0.466000  0.442286  0.070000  91894.06
 Median  0.008900  0.440000  0.320000  0.025000  99863.00
 Maximum  0.018200  0.980000  0.920000  0.306000  99993.00
 Minimum -0.107700  0.120000  0.100000  0.009000  9967.000
 Observations  165  165  165  165  165
Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

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Based on the descriptive statistical test, this study showed that out of a total of 165
observations, the mean Y was 0.005557, the median was 0.008900, the maximum value was
0.018200, and the minimum value was -0.107700. This study also found that the maximum
value of Y is 0.018200. The highest value of variable X1 is 0.980000, while the lowest value
is 0.120000. The mean value of variable X1 is 0.466000, while the median value is 0.440000.
The highest value of variable X2 is 0.920000, while the lowest value is 0.100000. The mean
value of variable X2 is 0.442286, while the median value is 0.320000. The highest value for
variable X3 is 0.306000, while the lowest value is 0.009000. The mean value of variable X3
is 0.070000, while the median value is 0.025000. The possible ranges of values for the
variable X4 are as follows: the highest value is 99993.00, the median value is 99986.00, the
average value is 91894.06, and the lowest value is 9967.000.
Best Model Selection Test

Chow Test

Table 3. Chow Test Results

Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.

Cross-section F 0.355053 (6,22) 0.8992

Cross-section Chi-square 3.234929 6 0.7788

Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

In this study, the CEM model was chosen if the probability value exceeded the critical
limit, but the FEM model was selected if the chi square cross section value was below the
critical limit. Based on the Chow test estimation, a probability value of 0.7788 was
calculated. Therefore, the CEM research model was chosen for this test. 0.05 is used as the
importance of the critical limit of a data set in this study.

Classic Assumption Test

Multicolinearity Test

Table 4. Multicollinearity Test Results

X1 X2 X3 X4
X1 1 0.263877 0.751731 0.154237
X2 0.263877 1 0.092483 0.155405
X3 0.751731 0.092483 1 0.144766
X4 0.154237 0.155405 0.144766 1
Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

Based on the Correlation estimation for each variable < 0.80, so that problems have not
been obtained in the multicollinearity test.

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Heteroscedasticity Test

Table 5. Heteroscedasticity Test Results

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.005208 0.010223 -0.509427 0.6149
X1 0.009864 0.012762 0.772953 0.4468
X2 0.008868 0.006475 1.369445 0.1830
X3 -0.041319 0.030114 -1.372091 0.1822
X4 1.75E-08 6.02E-08 0.291595 0.7730
Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

Based on the findings of the heteroscedasticity test using the Glesjer technique
which shows that the probability value of all research variables is more than 0.05, it can be
concluded that there are no signs of heteroscedasticity in the data.

Autocorrelation Test
Table 6. Autocorrelation Test Results
Weighted Statistics

R-squared 0.666078     Mean dependent var 0.007290

Adjusted R-squared 0.482421     S.D. dependent var 0.016295
S.E. of regression 0.011331     Sum squared resid 0.002568
F-statistic 3.626753     Durbin-Watson stat 1.637886
Prob(F-statistic) 0.006044

Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

The probability value of Durbin - Watson reaches 1.637886 greater than 0.05. So
there is no autocorrelation problem

Panel Data Regression Results Test

Table 7. Panel Data Regression Results

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 0.000142 0.043393 0.003268 0.9974

X1 -0.083083 0.020290 -4.094880 0.0006
X2 0.001524 0.011127 0.136985 0.8924
X3 0.616221 0.235598 2.615566 0.0166
X4 1.07E-07 8.98E-08 1.195248 0.2460

R-squared 0.791394     Mean dependent var 0.005409

Adjusted R-squared 0.676661     S.D. dependent var 0.021476
S.E. of regression 0.012212     Akaike info criterion -5.692856
Sum squared resid 0.002982     Schwarz criterion -5.143205
Log likelihood 103.0857     Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.510662
F-statistic 6.897688     Durbin-Watson stat 1.980927
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000107

Source: Secondary data processed, 2022

The Common Effect Model estimates are Y: 0.000142 - 0.083083 (X1) + 0.001524
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(X2) + 0.616221 (X3) + 1.07E-07 (X4).

Information : Y = Economic Growth
X1 = Forgein Direct Investment
X2 = Inflation
X3 = Export
X4 = Exchange Rate

Hypothesis testing

Coefficient of Determination
In this study, the estimated Adjusted R-squared was 0.676661. So it is assumed that
68% of Economic Growth (Y) can be influenced by the variables (X1) FDI, (X2) Inflation,
(X3) Exports, (X4) Exchange Rate while 32% is caused by variables that do not exist in this
study.

Parsial Test (T)

Through partial testing or t test, it can be seen that:

a. The estimated variable (X1) forgein direct investment has a probability level of 0.0006
<0.05, so forgein direct investment partially has an impact on economic growth (Y).
b. Estimated variable (X2) inflation has a probability level = 0.08924> 0.05, so that
exports partially do not have an impact on economic growth (Y)
c. The estimated variable (X3) of exports has a probability level of 0.0166 <0.05, so that
the exchange rate partially has an impact on economic growth (Y)
d. The estimated variable (X4) of the exchange rate has a probability level of 0.2460 >
0.05, so that partial inflation has no impact on economic growth (Y)

Simultaneous Test (F)

In this study, it was possible to estimate the probability of the F test, namely 0.000107
<0.05, so it was found that all the independent variables had a significant impact together
with the dependent variable.

Discussion

The impact of this study can be explained, namely:

a. Impact of Forgein Direct Investment on Economic Growth In the partial test estimate,
it is obtained that the Forgein Direct Investment variable has a significant positive impact or
influence on Economic Growth. This is in line with the neoclassical theory that FDI will
provide more job opportunities, wider transfer of technology thereby increasing economic
growth. These results are supported by Nguyen's research (2019). This research found that
the Forgein Direct Investment variable had an influence on the Economic Growth variable.

b. Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth In the estimation of the partial test, it is

obtained that the inflation variable has a negative effect on the economic growth variable. A
high inflation rate will weaken a country's economy. This makes companies reduce the
amount of production in such circumstances will make investors withdraw their investment,
so that economic growth decreases. So the relationship of inflation to economic growth is
negatively correlated. These results are supported by the research of Stievany and Jalunggono
(2022) that inflation has no significant effect in the short and long term on economic growth.

c. The Impact of Exports on Economic Growth In the partial test estimate, it is obtained
that the Export variable has a significant positive impact on Economic Growth. This result is
in line with classical economic theory that exports can expand markets and enable exporting
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countries to obtain funds to import other goods, including capital goods which will further
develop the economy. The rapid development of exports will lead to an increase in aggregate
spending which will eventually lead to rapid economic growth. These results are supported
by the research of Stievany and Jalunggono (2022) that exports have a large effect in the
short and long term on economic growth.

d. The Impact of Exchange Rates on Economic Growth In the estimation of partial

testing, it is obtained that the Exchange Rate variable has a negative effect on the Economic
Growth variable. A resonable exchange rate can contribute to economic growth. On the other
hand, the exchange rate will become a burden for a country's economic growth if the currency
value of each OIC country weakens. These results are supported by research by Rani and Jora
(2022) that exchange rates have a negative effect on economic growth.

6 Conclusion
Through the processing of the research results, hypothesis testing and the discussion that
has been explained, so that it can be concluded that Forgein Direct Investment and Export
variables can have a positive impact on Economic Growth Meanwhile, Inflation and
Exchange Rate variables can affect Economic Growth.

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