BACK TO BASICS in tournaments, Even if the British player does not
BASIC GERMAN ALTERNATIVES IN AFRIKA KORPS
by Rob Beyma
AFRIKA KORPS has remained a popular game
over the years. It is simple and played often at con-
vention tournaments, particularly the Avalon Hill 500
at Origins. The Germans are a popular choice but be-
cause of the Rommel syndrome and because they
normally dictate the tempo of the game. The German
player makes several important decisions during the
course of the game. Most of these center around the
pivotal fortress city of Tobruch. The designer of
AFRIKA KORPS certainly wanted to emphasize the
importance of Tobruch in the North African cam-
paign. Realistically, the length of the German supply
line without Tobruch is very long. Not so realisti-
cally, the ratio of British to German replacements is
reduced from 3-1 to 1-1 if the Germans capture To-
bruch.
(Diagram 1: The Drive to Tobruch. It is the first
May turn and the Germans throw a 4-1 at the first Al-
lied line of defense.)
The German offensive sets out for Tobruch in
April 1941. Normally the Italians go by way of the
Benghasi coastal road and the armor force overland
via Msus. A common variation is to send some or all
of the 21st Panzer around the escarpments to the
south of Tobruch. The Germans normally attack the
escarpments west of Tobruch at 3-1 or 4-1 on the
May I turn. The arrival of the 15th Panzer will enable
the Germans to assault the escarpments near Tobruch
on May II. An attack on Tobruch is feasible by June.
Sometimes good British play will prevent a good at-
tack on Tobruch until after the arrival of the British
June reinforcements. Only a real novice will fail to
bottle up the British in Tobruch by mid June.
(Diagram 2: Barring supply problems the second
May turn usually results in an assault on the escarp-
ment around Tobruch. Here the German player opts
for a 6-1 vs 4I/11 and a 7-1 vs 4I/5 while soaking-off
at 1-6 vs 2/3, 9A /20 and at 1-3 4I/7 and 22nd Gds.)
A favorite tactic is to send the 21st Panzer Recce
unit out into the desert southeast of Tobruch. Some-
times Rommel accompanies the Recce unit in order
to provide more mobility. If the British player is care-
less the Recce unit is capable of capturing the British
home base in two turns. It is amazing the number of
players that get burned by this maneuver, particularly
fall for this ploy the threat to his southern flank will
force the deployment of four or five 1-6s to contain
the Recce unit.
(Diagram 3: Capturing the British Home Base. If
the German can obtain this position by May I and the
British does not react by moving further east, the
Home Base will fall as the Polish Brigade can only
reach J49 on the Allied May II turn.)
Once the British have been driven back into To-
bruch the German player must make his first big de-
cision of the game. He must either attack Tobruch or
bypass it and drive on the British home base. There
are essentially two ways to attack Tobruch.
1-1/2-1: A lot of players in a hurry to finish the
game quickly employ this option. It makes for a real
crap shoot. The German player makes one big attack
against Tobruch at the best odds possible. Chart I
summarizes the expected losses and the probability of
taking Tobruch. This option is recommended for
players arriving at Tobruch late and with significant
casualties. An exchange normally leaves the Germans
too weak to continue the offensive until winter.
3-1: The German player makes a series of 3-1 +
attacks against one British unit while soaking off
against the rest. This tactic will eventually take To-
bruch if the Germans can avoid costly exchanges. A
variation of this is to attack two British units at 1-2
and the other at 3-1 or better. If a '1' or '2' can be at-
tained on the 1-2 Tobruch will fall.
The other option is to bypass Tobruch and head
for the British home base. Some Italian infantry must
be left behind to lay siege to Tobruch. The main
panzer force should drive down the coast road elimi-
nating British delay units as they go. The first major
resistance will normally be encountered near El
Alamein. The strong German panzer units can be
used to attrition the British army as long as thc supply
units keep arriving at the front. If the British home
base can be captured the Germans have probably won
the game. If not, the Germans must normally retreat
on November 1 when the British reinforcements ar-
rive.
The Germans usually fall back to near the Libya-
Egyptian border where they can join their November
reinforcements and additional supply units. At this
point time starts working against the Germans. They
must take Tobruch by March or they will be on the
BACK TO BASICS 2

short end of a 3 to 1 replacement rate. (Historically, AE & EX .08 50 12

the ratio of British to German replacements was AE & AE .16 52 0
about 2 to 1. This increased to about 3 to 1 after June
1942.)
At this point in the game the Germans may be in
a position to take a calculated risk. If the kill ratio
thus far is favorable the Germans will be able to af-
ford an exchange against Tobruch and still have a
reasonable chance of winning. Chart 2 shows the
probability analysis of a pair of 1-1 attacks on To-
bruch. It is assumed that the Germans have sufficient
factors for two 1-1 attacks. Note that an AE result
followed by a DE result is essentially equivalent to an
EX result initially. AR results are neglected for pur-
poses of this calculation.

Given a favorable kill ratio, the Germans have

about a 76% chance of emerging from the attack on
Tobruch with a good chance of winning the game. If
Tobruch is not attacked the Germans will lose any-
way. A 3-1 and soakoff strategy has little promise at
this point. Time, the British replacement rate, and a
hostile army on your eastern flank are working
against you.

Once Tobruch has been captured the entire Ger-

man army is free to drive eastward to the British
home base. There should not be any supply problems
at this point. Once the British are bottled up on the
east end of the board the German armor can bludgeon
its way to the British home base. Only some DE re-
sults on low odds attacks can save the game for the
British.

Chart 1 INITIAL ATTACK ON TOBRUCH

Percentages based on a defense in Tobruch consisting of
one 4-4-7 and two 2-2-6s. The Axis attack force consists of
18 factors so that the extra two factors which would survive
an exchange can advance into Tobruch.
Expected Expected Probability
Attack
Axis Allied of taking
Odds
Losses Losses Tobruch
1-1 8.7 4.0 .50
2-1 10.7 5.3 .67
3-1&1-2 4.7 5.3 .33

Chart 2 A PAIR OF 1-1 ATTACKS ON TOBRUCH

Percentages based on a defense of three 4-4-7s.
Axis Allied
Results Probability
Losses Losses
DE .40 0 12
EX .20 24 12
AE & DE .16 26 12
BACK TO BASICS 3

3-1: The Germans attack at 3-1 with soakoffs.

Chart 3 EXPECTED SUPPLY SITUATION They plan to kill the large British units and exhaust
Plus or Minus one supply unit is statistically normal for the British replacements before the German army it-
each period. self is exhausted.
Expected Number
Period 2-1: There are not normally enough large factor
Of Supply Units
April 1941-June 1941 4.3 units to get a single 2-1 attack.
July1941-October 1941 4.0
November 1941-February 1941 6.7 1-1: The Germans should have sufficient factors
remaining to get two, maybe three, 1-1 attacks before
the end of the game. Chart 5 shows the cumulative
The luck of the supply rolls may influence the probability of taking Tobruch with multiple 1-1 at-
German strategy. Bad luck early in the game may tacks. The probability of ARs can be neglected until
make it difficult getting to Tobruch. Lack of supply the last few turns of the game. Sufficient forces
makes the Tobruch bypass option a lot less attractive. should remain in defensive positions to prevent a
In that case a 1-1 on Tobruch might be your best British breakout.
chance of winning. On the other hand, a '"hot" supply
die will give the Germans all of the supply they need
Chart 5 MULTIPLE 1-1 ATTACKS ON TOBRUCH
for any course of action. In this case the German
player may be a little reluctant to risk everything on Probability of Taking To-
Number of Attacks
bruch
one attack so early in the game. Chart 3 shows the ex-
pected number of German supply units during certain 1 .600
segments of the game. It does 'tot take into account 2 .840
supply units lost because the Germans already have 3 .936
all three supply units on the board.
A relatively simple and fast moving game system
Chart 4 VARIANT HISTORICAL SUPPLY TABLE has made AFRICA KORPS a fun game to play
Die Roll Needed through the years. Despite a high luck factor AFRIKA
Period KORPS continues to be a popular game. The German
to Sink Supply
April 1941-June 1941 1,2 player can increase his chances by considering and
July 1941-October 1941 1,2,3 exercising all of his available options. In certain situ-
November 1941-March 1942 1 ations a series of low odds attacks may offer the Ger-
April 1942-June 1942 1,2,3 man player the best chance of winning. If all other al-
July 1942-October 1942 1,2,3,4 ternatives fail the German player can usually go back
to Tobruch and take his 1-1. Well played, the Ger-
mans have the advantage. Just don't forget to make
AFRIKA KORPS gives the Germans a favorable sacrifices to the great supply god before you start.
supply situation from November 1941 to October
1942. Historically, this was not the case. Kesselring's
air wing pounded Malta during the winter of 1942.
German supply deliveries increased during this pe-
riod. However, during the summer of 1942 German
attention was drawn to Stalingrad and the Caucasus.
German supply slacked off as the summer went on.
By September the Afrika Korps at El Alamein was
critically short of supplies and replacements. Chart 4
shows a more realistic supply table for the North
African campaign.

Occasionally the Germans capture the British

home base before they capture Tobruch. Do not cele-
brate yet because the game isn't over. The German
army must still successfully assault Tobruch. There
are several ways of attacking Tobruch at this point.