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FALL 2011 MS 1023 CHAPTERS 1 4 NOTES CHAPTER 1 Population: The group you want to study Sample: A portion of the

e group you can study Statistics: The collection, analysis, interpretation and presentation of the data you actually collected Descriptive Statistics: When you summarize actual data from a portion (sample) of the group. A descriptive measure of a sample is called a STATISTIC. Sample: Sample mean (same as average) Sample variance (amount of variability in the sample) Sample standard deviation (you take the square root of the sample variance) Inferential Statistics: When you infer your summarized data on a population (the entire group) A descriptive measure of a population is called a PARAMETER. Population: Population mean (same as average) Population variance (amount of variability in the population) Population standard deviation (you take the square root of the population variance)
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Measuring your data Nominal: no order Ordinal: some order Interval: each measured value has equal distance and the value zero is just a place holder Ratio: same as interval but here the value of zero indicates an absence of the characteristic of interest SUGGESTED PROBLEMS 1.5, 1.7

CHAPTER 2
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Creating a frequency distribution from data (see example page 19)


Interval (class) Percent Frequency Frequency Relative Frequency Relative

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Histograms provide an initial overview of the entire data set (learn how to create a histogram in excel using only the class interval and the frequency values). See measures of shape (skewness) page 77. Pie Charts provide a picture in percentages of the entire data set (learn how to create a pie chart in excel using only the class interval and the relative percent frequency values). Bar Charts provide a picture in percentages or frequency values of the entire data set (learn how to create a bar chart in excel using only the class interval and the frequency values). Scatter Plots provide a graphical picture when you want to see how two ideas might be related. They should be ratio level data (something you measure). Learn how to create a scatter plot using two columns of data values (see page 33). How to use Excel begins on page 41 of your text.
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SUGGESTED PROBLEMS 2.1, 2.3, 2.17, 2.18 relative frequency only, 2.22, 2.23, 2.38, 2.40 CHAPTER 3 Descriptive Statististics

50 45 31 15 51

35 47 32 22 50

65 53 115 39 50

75 55 39 54 49

25 50 33 120 50

Find the following descriptive statistics from the above 5 ROWS of SAMPLE data.

Row 1 Row 2 Row 3 Row 4 Row 5 Mode (page 48) Median (page 48) Sample Mean (page 49) Range (page 55) Sample Variance (page 63)- S^2 Find formula Sample Standard Deviation (page 63)- S
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z Score (page 66) for samples z Scores (page 66) represent the number of standard deviations a value (x) is above or below the mean of a set of numbers when the data is normally distributed Z Score is standardizing The Empirical Rule (page 60) state the approximate percentage of values that lie within a given number of standard deviations from the mean of a set of data if the data are normally distributed. 68 95 99.7 Rule (see pictures on pages 60 and 61)

SKIP SECTION 3.3

See measures of shape as they relate to the mean, median and mode for skewness page 78. Box-and-Whisker Plot: The 5 number summary (you must put the values in order) Minimum: the smallest value in the data set Q1 or First Quartile: the value that sits at the 25th position of the data set
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Median Q2 the Second Quartile: the value that is in the middle of the data set Q3 or Third Quartile: the value that sits at the 75th position of the data set Maximum: the largest value in the data set IQR: the Inner Quartile Range (Q3 Q1) Solving for any percentile (page 56) i = P/100 (N) where i is the position, P is the percentile of interest and N is the size of the data set SUGGESTED PROBLEMS 3.1 3.7, 3.11 all except b, 3.14, 3.31 3.33, 3.39 do not work outlier problem How to use Excel begins on page 91 of your text.

CHAPTER 4 Classical method of assigning probabilities (page 95) P(E) = number of outcomes of interest / total possible number of
outcomes

Range of Possible Probabilities (page 95) The probability that something occurs is between 0 and 1 Independent Events (page 98): the outcome of an event has no relationship to the next outcome Mutually Exclusive Events (page 98): once the outcome is determined, other outcomes cannot happen Counting Rules (page 100) The mn counting rule: a multiplication process Sample from a population with replacement: (N)n Where N is the population size and n is the sample size Sample from a population without replacement: )= N! / n! (N n )! NCn = ( Contingency Tables for evaluating Marginal, Joint, Union, and Conditional Probabilities (page 102) Demonstration Problem (page 106 107) Marginal Probability P(X): the probability of event X Joint Probability P(XY): the intersection of two events X and Y (where the symbol means and)
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Probability for the Union of two events (where the symbol U means or) P(XUY) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(XY) Conditional Probability P(X|Y): it is understood that event Y has already occurred so we want to know the probability of event X
Observed Data (Raw Value Matrix) Defectiv Nondefective e Company 1 10 5 Company 2 8 2 total 18 7

total 15 10 25

Expected Data (Probability Matrix) Nondefective (N) Company 1 (A) Company 2 (B) total Defective (D) total

Marginal Probability What is the probability of choosing Company 1? P(A) Joint Probability What is the probability of choosing Company 1 and having a defective item? P(A D ) Probability for Unions What is the probability of choosing Company 1 or having a defective item? P(A U D ) Conditional Probability

Given that a defective item has been found (this is a preexisting condition), what is the probability that it came from Company 1? P (A | D) = P(A D ) / P (D) Testing for Independent Events: The following must be true if X and Y are independent events (conditional probability = marginal probability) P(X|Y) = P(X) and P(Y|X) = P(Y) [ P(X or Y but not both) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(XY) - P(XY) ] see page 107 Figure 4.8 Revision of Probabilities: Bayes Rule see Table 4.8 page 124 We use the Conditional Probability equation to find the Posterior or Revised probability for Bayes Table
Joint Prior Conditional Probability Probability Probability P(Ei) P(d|Ei) P(Ei d) 0.65 0.35 0.08 0.12 0.052 0.042 P(d) = 0.094 Posterior or Revised Probability 0.052/0.094 = 0.553 0.042/0.094 = 0.447

Event Alamo (A) South Jersey (S)

Use the rule for conditional probability P (A | d) = P(A d ) / P (d) To find the Posterior or Revised Probabilities P (A | d) = 0.052 / 0.094

SUGGESTED PROBLEMS 4.4 - 4.7, 4.9, 4.10, 4.12, 4.13, 4.16, 4.19, 4.27, 4.33

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