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Dervis
Dervis
Convergence,
Interdependence,
and Divergence
Growth in emerging market and developing economies is less
dependent on advanced economies over the long run, but in the
short run they dance together
Kemal Derviş
M
ost feel that we live in an integrated globalized world. But
when looking at recent history, what can one really say about the
nature of this integration? It seems there are three fundamental
trends at work that today characterize the world economy.
taken as two aggregates, there are still millions of people in Chart 2 shows the underlying trend growth rates calcu-
some of the poorest countries whose incomes have remained lated using a statistical technique, the Hodrick-Prescott filter,
Chart 1 Chart 2
–6 –2
1981 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1981 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012. Source: Author’s calculations based on data from the IMF’s April 2012 World Economic Outlook.
side factors such as long-term capital accumulation, techno- U.S. subprime crisis seems to have directly affected credit
logical catch-up, and demographics. But cyclical movements default swap spreads in emerging markets simply through a
around trends, linked more to shorter-term demand-side spread of “sentiment” (Dooley and Hutchinson, 2009).
factors, are likely to be strongly correlated. The recent global For all these reasons, the delinking of long-term growth
growth declines in early 2012, due much more to macro- trends and continued correlation in cyclical movements
economic and financial sector management issues than to coexist, with global and regional factors weaving the world
long-term supply-side factors, vividly reflect this worldwide economy into an interdependent whole.
interdependence.
There appear to be three main channels of cyclical Divergence in distribution
interdependence. In addition to broad convergence of per capita incomes and
The first is trade. As the share of trade in global economic cyclical interdependence in economic activities across bor-
activity has increased, the changes in demand in one country ders, higher inequality within countries and a wider gap
resulting from macroeconomic developments in another can be between the world’s richest and poorest citizens appears to
expected to increase. The effect of a recession in one country, be spawning divergence between top and bottom incomes,
for example, spreads across borders by reducing the demand an emerging third fundamental trend. Income has become
for exports from other countries. In theory, if greater specializa- concentrated at the very top in many countries. Added to
tion in production is encouraged by trade, sector-specific shocks this within-country evolution of income distribution is the
will tend to reduce cyclical interdependence. But in practice the absence of per capita income growth in a group of very poor
macroeconomic demand effects are much more significant. countries unable to participate in the broad convergence
The second channel works through increasingly global, described above.
huge, and complex financial markets. A new IMF report Certainly, convergence resulting from the rapid catch-up
measures “spillover effects”—the impact of policies in one growth affecting a large majority in the emerging and devel-
country on another as a result of the large volume of trade oping countries is giving rise to a rapidly growing global
and financial linkages in today’s economy—and documents middle class. However, a variety of factors—including the
the importance of the financial channel. Using the euro nature of technological change, the increased skill premium,
area as an example, the report concludes that “direct (trade- the huge expansion of the global market and the associated
linked) spillovers from stress in the euro area program coun- winner-take-all characteristics of many markets, the mobil-
tries are manageable, but if the stress were to cast doubt on ity of capital in contrast to the relative immobility of labor,
the soundness of euro area banks, the spillovers to the rest particularly unskilled labor, and a declining influence of
of the world would be large—in many cases as large as after unions—have all led to increased income concentration at
Lehman” (IMF, 2011). The report also finds that under stress- the very top in many of the largest countries, advanced as
ful financial conditions—for example from an asset price well as emerging and developing.