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Caso de Estudio How To Value Recapitalizations and Leveraged Buyouts
Caso de Estudio How To Value Recapitalizations and Leveraged Buyouts
S U M M E R 1 9 8 9 V O L U M E 2. 2
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
IN ORDER TO EVALUATE THESE COMPETING BIDS RESPONSIBLY, B&G’S BOARD
OF DIRECTORS NEEDS A FINANCIAL MODEL WHICH OFFERS RELIABLE ESTIMATES
FOR THE VALUE OF LEVERED CASH FLOWS.
In an earlier paper, we demonstrated that the of 40% (or debt/equity ratio of 2/3). B&G’s manage-
three valuation methods give identical results as long ment has responded to this recapitalization bid with
as each is properly formulated taking into account a proposal to take the company private in a
changes in the firm’s cash flows and capital structure leveraged buyout. The management, backed by
over time.1 While our reasoning suggests that the credible bank financing, has offered $80 a share.
methods are equivalent under any financial policy, While this situation is hypothetical, the story line
we also concluded that it is more practical to apply has been recounted in the financial press with strik-
the WACC approach when the debt-to-capital ratio ing frequency. Nearly 15,000 merger and acquisition
is fixed, and the APV technique when the debt ratio deals, worth more than $640 billion, were consum-
is expected to change but the amount of debt out- mated in the years 1984 through 1987. Almost 1,100
standing falls into a predictable pattern. of these transactions were LBOs, valued at more than
In this article, we demonstrate (and advocate) the $120 billion. 2 The year 1988 saw record dollar
use of different valuation methods to appraise a volume and megadeals, capped by the biggest ever,
hypothetical corporation in two different financial the $24.8 billion LBO of RJR-Nabisco Inc. In certain
transactions: recapitalizations and leveraged industries, it is difficult to find firms which have not
buyouts. Recapitalizations are cases in which the recently undergone a financial transformation of
debt/equity ratio is changed and then maintained at some kind. In the past four years, for example, more
a new level into the future. In LBOs, by contrast, the than twenty publicly held food retailers were ac-
firm’s debt/equity ratio falls over time, and the dollar quired, taken private or restructured.3
amount of debt outstanding as a result of repayment In order to evaluate these competing bids
of principal can be projected for each future time responsibly, B&G’s board of directors needs a finan-
period. In the following pages, we will argue that the cial model which offers reliable estimates for the
WACC approach is most practical for valuing value of levered cash flows. Armed with this
recapitalizations, whereas APV is ideally suited for framework, the board could, for example, determine
LBO applications. what the corporation’s shares would be worth if the
firm undertook the recapitalization itself. It could
SELL TO KIN, SELL TO STRANGERS, OR ROLL also evaluate the Conglomerate and management
YOUR OWN? offers, allowing the board to better estimate the price
the board should—and can—demand. We now
Consider the following fictional scenario: B&G, show how the WACC and APV methods can be used
Inc. is a company with a solid performance in the to analyze the recapitalization and LBO activity
lackluster textile industry. While demand for its which has come to play such a prominent role in
products has stagnated over the past decade, the business restructuring.
firm’s respected management team has maintained
earnings on a slow upward trend. Thus far, B&G’s HOW TO SIZE UP THE BIDS
officers have followed a conservative financial
course, keeping the balance sheet clear of any long- Valuing the Unlevered Company
term indebtedness. But stockholders, disappointed
in the performance of B&G’s shares, have placed It makes sense to begin by valuing B&G as it
increasing pressure on management to reconsider stands—an all-equity firm. The reasonableness of
the all-equity financial structure. the firm’s current stock price can be checked by way
Two recent offers to purchase the company have of a standard discounted cash flow analysis.
intensified these pressures. Conglomerate, Inc. has The projected income and cash flow statements
recently offered to purchase all 10 million outstand- for B&G are given in Exhibit 1. Outside analysts
ing shares of B&G at $78 per share, a 20% premium expect B&G sales to remain at the current $500
over the pre-offer market price of $65. This offer is million level, but the managers are convinced that
based on Conglomerate’s assessment that B&G’s improved marketing could raise revenues at a 10%
stable earnings could support a debt-to-capital ratio annual rate over the next two years. Continued
1. I Inselbag and H. Kaufold, “On the Equivalence of the APV and Weighted 2. Mergers Acquisitions, Profile tables, various issues.
Average Cost of Capital Approaches to Firm Valuation,” unpublished manuscript, 3. Wall Street Journal, September 26, 1988, “Kroger Rejects Offers, Intends to
Wharton School, December 1988. Restructure,” p. 4.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
EXHIBIT 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
PROJECTED INCOME AND
CASH FLOW STATEMENT Sales 500 550 605
B&G, INC. Cost of Goods Sold 250 275 303
(IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Depreciation 40 45 50
SG&A 50 55 61
growth beyond that point would require new from Exhibit 1, the value of B&G (all-equity) can be
product development. The best estimate is that cost calculated as shown in Exhibit 2. Since we expect
of goods sold would continue to take up 50%, and B&G’s cash flow to level out at $127 million after year
administrative expenses 10%, of revenue. Total an- 3, the value of the firm at the end of that year will
nual investment in plant and equipment and net equal $792 million ($127 million/.16). Discounting
working capital will be $40 and $45 million in the this terminal value back three years implies a present
next two years, and will level off at $50 million per value of approximately $507 million. Adding to this
year thereafter. Depreciation charges are expected to amount the present value of the cash flows from years
match investment outlays in each of the future years. l-3 gives a total present value for the all-equity firm
With B&G in the 34% tax bracket, the assumed of $765 million (or $76.50 per share).
equality of depreciation and investment implies that This valuation suggests that, with B&G’s current
both after-tax operating income and free cash flow share price set at $65, the market is significantly
would reach approximately $127 million in three undervaluing B&G stock relative to its theoretical
years, remaining at that level thereafter.4 value based on growth prospects. This pricing is
All we need to value the company is the ap- consistent, however, with outside analysts’ expecta-
propriate rate to be used to discount these free cash tion that B&G’s sales are static. With no growth in
flows. Since B&G is unlevered, the required return revenue, the market value of B&G would equal
on assets will equal the required return on equity. $662.5 million ($106 million/.16) (or $66.25 per
While estimating the expected return on a firm’s share).
shares is a difficult task, there are well-established
methods for meeting this challenge. If B&G’s stock Conglomerate Recapitalization Offer
is publicly traded, an analysis of the covariance of
share returns with market-wide returns (producing Conglomerate, Inc. views B&G as an attractive
a measure known as “beta”) will provide an estimate acquisition candidate for three reasons. First, it has
of the required return on equity. Share price and spotted the sales growth possibility that B&G’s
fundamental data for comparable, publicly traded managers have also identified. The market is under-
firms can also be used to deduce an appropriate valuing the target’s shares because analysts have not
discount rate. yet uncovered the true value of B&G even as an
In this example, we’ll simply assume that the asset independent, all-equity company. Conglomerate
risk in the textile industry justifies a required return of may also see the potential for financial (as opposed
16%. Using this discount rate, and the free cash flows to “real” or operating) synergies.
4. We have chosen a three-year horizon to keep our illustration as simple as
possible. It is common for LBO practitioners to project cash flows over a five to ten
year period.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
THE WACC METHOD IS A STRAIGHTFORWARD WAY TO EVALUATE THE UNTAPPED
DEBT CAPACITY OF THE TARGET IF THIS FIRM IS TO BE REFINANCED WITH A
STABLE FUTURE CAPITAL STRUCTURE.
By “real” synergies, we mean that combining the market value terms, the weighted average cost of
two firms would enable Conglomerate to raise the capital appropriate for discounting a firm’s free cash
incremental cash flows from the B&G assets above flows is constant and can be calculated as follows:6
those in Exhibit 1 because of some economies in
production, marketing, distribution, or otherwise.
Because this motive for mergers and acquisitions is
well understood, and not our main concern here, we
will instead focus principally on financial synergies.
To clarify the impact of financial synergies alone, we
will assume that Conglomerate is involved in totally
different businesses, and is therefore not expected
to improve on the operating results projected by
management. 5
Conglomerate sees potential financial synergies In this relation, rA and rD represent the required
in its ability to finance B&G’s operations more ag- returns on B&G’s assets and debt, respectively, t is
gressively. For example, suppose it can finance up the corporate tax rate, and L is the target debt-to-capi-
to 40% of B&G’s value with BBB-rated debt issued at tal ratio for the firm. The weighted average cost of
an interest rate of 10%. The stability of B&G’s cash capital is below the return on assets because of the
flows creates a debt capacity which its current tax subsidy to debt financing.
management has failed to tap. The interest on this To calculate the value of B&G under the
debt would shield some of B&G’s income from tax, recapitalization plan, we discount the free cash flows
and thereby leave more after-tax payout for the firm’s by the weighted average cost of capital. As shown in
investors. Exhibit 3, the cash flows from year 4 and beyond
Suppose Conglomerate has correctly estimated justify a value for the firm of $870 million ($127
B&G’s optimal market debt-to-capital ratio at 40%. million/.146) as of the end of year 3. Discounting it
The WACC method is ideally suited for valuing B&G back to the present using WACC, this amount is worth
under the new, stable debt/equity blend. If a firm $579 million today. The present value of the cash
intends to maintain a stable capital structure in flows from years 1 through 3 are worth $264 million:
5. If Conglomerate could realize such synergies from the acquisition of B&G, 6. This point has been made by J. Miles and R. Ezzell, “The Weighted Average
we could easily include them in our valuation analysis by appropriately revising Cost of Capital, Perfect Capital Markets and Project Life: A Clarification,” Journal
the cash flows given in Exhibit 1. We assume these gains are insignificant to focus of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (September 1980), pp. 719-730.
on the potential financial synergies alone.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
IN A LEVERAGED BUYOUT, A FIRM’S OWNERS BEGIN WITH A HEAVY DEBT LOAD,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PAY OFF OUTSTANDING PRINCIPAL ACCORDING TO A
SPECIFIC TIMETABLE (AND OFTEN VERY RAPIDLY) . . . UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE APV APPROACH IS A MORE PRACTICAL VALUATION
METHOD.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
EXHIBIT 5 Payment at end of year Amount Interest Principal Balance
DEBT REPAYMENT PLAN
B&G LBO 1 139 102 37 688
(IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
2 139 96 43 645
3 139 90 49 596
10. To be entirely true to Myers’ concept’ we should also deduct from this how the firm is to be managed and 2) affect the firm’s direction if, in the creditors’
value any costs of having the debt outstanding, such as the costs of liquidating the view, the managers stray from the appropriate course. These factors tend to temper
firm’s assets if it is unable to service the debt. For simplicity, we assume these are the fears of creditors even as debt levels climb.
negligible LBOs have been most common in industries in which cash flows are 11. For convenience, we assume a single source of debt capital in financing
relatively stable, where the probability of debt service difficulties is relatively low. about 90% of the buyout price, with the remaining 10% in equity. In typical LBO
Also, while these so-called “costs of financial distress” (CFD) would reduce the transactions, a combination of senior and subordinated debt, and preferred and
value of the levered firm, we are more concerned with the relative values of the common stock‚ is used in the capital structure The valuation of deals with such
LBO and the recap offers. Though one would normally expect CFD to increase layers of financing is a straightforward extension of the APV method
with the amount of debt issued, it does not follow that these costs are higher for 12. As pointed out in footnote 5 above. we could account for any impact of
the LBO than for the recap in our example. The firm is likely to have both fewer the LBO per se on the operating cash flows by revising the cash flows of Exhibit 1
shareholders and fewer creditors under the LBO than when it is public. As a result, accordingly. The reasons one might expect improved operating results under the
it is probably easier for the bondholders as a group to 1) form a coherent view of private ownership structure are discussed below.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE VALUES OF THE LBO AND RECAP OFFERS IN OUR
EXAMPLE, $894 VS $843 MILLION, IS DUE SOLELY TO THE VALUE OF THE
INTEREST TAX SHIELDS ON THE ADDITIONAL DEBT ISSUED UNDER THE LBO.
in Conglomerate’s recap offer. The steps involved in As is typical in LBO deals, the bulk of the payoff
evaluating the LBO proposal are shown in Exhibit 6. to the managers/stockholders in our example comes
The first component of the LBO value is what in year 3 when the firm is resold. (See Exhibit 7.)
B&G is worth in unlevered form. We earlier (in Dividend payments are minimal during the LBO
Exhibit 2) found this value to be $765 million. We years since most of the firm’s income is committed
must add to this the present value of the interest tax to debt interest and principal payments. If B&G is
shields from the debt used to finance the operations resold at fair value at the end of year 3, the LBO
of B&G. At the end of year 3, the managers will take owners net $274 million after retiring the remaining
the firm public again. If the new owners use the 2/3 debt principal.
debt/equity financing assumed under the We should again emphasize that the difference in
recapitalization plan, the expected sale price at that the values of the LBO and recap offers in our ex-
time is $870 million, the terminal value calculated for ample, $894 vs $843 million, is due to the value of
the recap in Exhibit 3. The difference between this the interest tax shields on the additional debt issued
amount and the terminal value for the firm in all- under the LBO. It has purposely been assumed that
equity form is $78 million, which represents the the underlying cash flows would be unaffected by
value (as of the end of year 3) of the tax shield on the the form of reorganization the directors of B&G
debt used to finance B&G after year 3. Discounting accept. There is a strong argument, however, that the
at the debt rate of 14%, this amount is worth $53 firm’s assets would be managed more efficiently
million in present value. under the LBO option, since the managers’ own
Finally, we must add the tax savings from the debt wealth is more closely tied to the performance of the
outstanding during the LBO years. Every dollar of company in this case. The recapitalization offer by
interest reduces taxes by 34 cents, so the present the outside corporation may still prove to be more
value of the debt tax shield for years 1-3 is as follows:13 valuable, though, if the synergies from the combina-
tion of the acquirer and target outweigh the com-
bined effects of enhanced management incentives
.34 x (g4+ --!& + --$$$ G $76 million. and greater interest tax shields under the LBO.
(1.14)2 . Though the APV method we have outlined above
is simple and theoretically sound, it is rare for prac-
The value of the leveraged buyout (approximate- titioners to use this approach to analyze LBOs. Most
ly $894 million) is the sum of the all-equity value of LBO analysts determine buyout prices for deals by
$765 million plus the present value of all interest tax applying price earnings multiples for comparable
shields. The $94 million difference between this value transactions to historical operating income for the
and the $800 million LBO offer is the excess the target. Cash flow projections are widely used, but
managers win for themselves if their bid is accepted. less for valuation than for structuring the financial
13. In our example, the debt service is fixed independent of the annual cash of the firm. Since the debt balance then becomes as risky as the cash flows, the
flows generated by B&G. In many LBO transactions, debt covenants require that required return on assets, r& is the appropriate discount rate to be used in
the entire free cash flow be dedicated to interest and principal payments. Under calculating the present value of interest tax shields. See Miles and Ezzell for a more
these conditions, the amount of debt outstanding and, therefore, the interest tax detailed discussion.
shields at any point in time are a direct function of the unlevered free cash flows
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
EBIT MULTIPLES, P/E RATIOS, AND OTHER “BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE” METHODS
ARE USEFUL BENCHMARKS IN THE VALUATION PROCESS. BUT SUCH METHODS
CAN SERIOUSLY MISREPRESENT A FIRM’S TRUE VALUE IF ITS CASH FLOW
CHARACTERISTICS DO NOT EXACTLY MATCH THOSE OF THE “COMPARABLES.”
package to meet lender requirements (coverage teristics do not exactly match those of the “com-
ratios) and to maximize equity returns given a parables.”
buyout price based on multiples. The financial The second shortcoming is that LBO equity in-
analysis for LBO lenders involves preparing pro vestors tend to use ad hoc hurdle rates. The cutoff
forma statements along the lines of Exhibit 7, and rate which is appropriate for any particular transac-
determining whether coverage ratios comply with tion depends on the riskiness of the target firm’s
standard rules of thumb. underlying asset cash flows, and the level and repay-
LBO equity investors calculate the internal rate of ment schedule of the debt financing. In spite of these
return earned on the equity cash flows, and pursue complications (or perhaps because of them), prac-
those deals which offer returns above a pre-deter- titioners generally apply the same minimum re-
mined hurdle rate. As this article goes to press, most quired return to all deals. Furthermore, the return
LBO firms require a minimum return between 30% and that equity investors should require changes
40%. The return to equity in our hypothetical example dramatically over the life of an LBO, since firms
is 60.5% (Exhibit 7), so this deal would be considered reduce debt over time and often shed assets as well.
acceptable assuming B&G’s board is willing to sell the Exhibit 8 demonstrates how the required return
firm to management at the $800 million price.14 on equity and the weighted average cost of capital
From a valuation perspective, current practice changes over the three-year period of the B&G trans-
suffers from two shortcomings. The first is its reliance action. (For a derivation of these numbers, see the
on income multiples in determining the fair value of Appendix to this article.) Equity investors using a
the target firm. EBIT multiples, P/E ratios, and other hurdle rate approach must decide which of the
“back-of-the-envelope” methods are useful values in the first row above is the appropriate re-
benchmarks in the valuation process. But it is well quired return for the B&G transaction. The answer,
known that such methods can seriously mis- of course, is that each is correct for the equity cash
represent a firm’s true value if its cash flow charac- flow expected in the corresponding year, while the
14. Steven Kaplan has conducted a study of actual returns to equity investors the median (mean) return to equity investors was 113% (128%) per annum. As
in management buyout transactions (“Management Buyouts: Efficiency Gains or Kaplan points out, these figures probably overstate MBO equity returns because
Value Transfers,” unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, October 1988). the firms that could be valued tended to have higher-than-average post-buyout
Of the 76 buyouts completed between 1980 and 1986 that exceeded $50 million, performance. Specifically, a disproportionate number of the firms that could be
Kaplan is able to value 21 of them at some time after the buyout. For these 21 deals, valued were those that had been taken public.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
EXHIBIT 8 Costs of Financing for the Year 0 1 2 3
COSTS OF FINANCING
Return on Equity 23.0% 21.6% 20.5% 19.9%
UNDER THE LBO PLAN
Wtd. Avg. Cost of Capital 11.9% 12.1% 12.3% 14.6%
appropriate overall hurdle rate is a complicated of three forms of corporate restructuring: internal
average of these returns.15 recapitalization, recapitalization by an outside firm,
Assuming investors are somehow able to deter- and a leveraged buyout. All of these forms of reor-
mine appropriate cutoff rates, the approach used in the ganization should add value because of the income
marketplace still only reveals whether or not a deal tax shields the debt provides. The LBO maximizes
should be pursued. The additional advantage of the these tax advantages, and will therefore be the most
APV method is that it provides a measure of the wealth valuable option when the costs of financial distress
created for the equity investors in an LBO. This infor- are insignificant. The buyout also gives management
mation is extremely valuable in providing a foundation the heaviest equity stake. Eliminating the
for rational price negotiation in a bidding contest. bureaucratic layers between owners and managers
may improve operating results and firm value. In
WHAT SHOULD THE BOARD DO? spite of these advantages, the external recapitaliza-
tion will prove to be more valuable if there are
Having outlined the alternative valuation methods, significant synergies when the target is combined
we return to the original question: How can the board with the other assets in the acquirer’s portfolio.
react responsibly to a set of offers on the table? In the Our analysis also shows that there are generally
particular example we have considered, the LBO reor- several ways to value any restructuring proposal.
ganization is worth more than the recapitalization be- The weighted average cost of capital approach will
cause of the assumed absence of synergies and costs be best when the capital structure is stable, while the
of financial distress. While the original management APV method will be most direct if the capital struc-
bid of $80 exceeds Conglomerate’s, the recap value is ture changes but the debt amortization schedule is
higher than the LBO bid. If the board resists the initial predictable. In fact, this finding is much more general
management proposal, Conglomerate is likely to than the context we have considered. When valuing
leapfrog the LBO share offer, and force the manage- a going concern that is expected to maintain a con-
ment buyout group to surrender more of the value to stant debt/equity structure, the weighted average
existing shareholders. Many outcomes are possible, cost of capital is a legitimate and convenient discount
but what is clear is the importance to the board of rate to apply to corporate operating cash flows. In
having a consistent method of comparing alternative situations where the financing mix will change over
offers for their firm. time, the weighted average cost of capital loses sig-
More generally, we have described some of the nificance, and the APV method becomes the better
most important factors determining the relative value valuation technique.
15. Exhibit 8 also indicates the difficulties of using a WACC approach to value year 3 assume the LBO is reversed at that time, with the new owners achieving the
a firm undergoing a leveraged buyout. The weighted average cost of capital target debt-to-capital mix of 40%. The resulting required return on equity will be
increases over the life of the LBO since the financing subsidy from the interest tax constant at 19.9%, implying the weighted average cost of capital of 14.6% used in
shield dwindles as the debt is repaid. The returns given in Exhibit 8 for the end of the recap analysis above.
is Adjunct Professor of Finance at the University of is Adjunct Associate Professor of Finance at the Wharton School,
Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is also Director of its Execu- and Associate Director of its M.B.A. program.
tive M.B.A. program.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
APPENDIX n How the Cost of Capital Changes Over Time.
Exhibit 8 in the paper describes the evolution in the The equity returns for the other years are computed
return on equity and the weighted average cost of in similar fashion.
capital over the life of the LBO. The return to the The weighted average cost of capital is the weighted
stockholders consists of annual cash flow and ap- average of the cost of debt and equity financing. We’ve
preciation in equity value. Specifically, the rate of just shown how the equity cost is measured. The before-
return over any particular year is equal to the following: tax cost of debt in our example is 14%. The weighted
average cost of capital as the LBO begins is therefore:
(Cash Flow to Equity + Increase in Equity Value)
rE =
Initial Equity Value = (debt) rD( 1 - t) + !$C@&&
r
wAcc ( v a l u e )
The cash flow to the shareholders is presented in
= (725) (.14) (l-.34) + $@&) (230)
Exhibit 7 in the text. Because the bulk of earnings is (894)
committed to servicing the debt in an LBO, most of
the shareholders’ return is earned in the form of G .119,
capital gains. To calculate the appreciation in equity
value, we can use the same APV valuation method
used to construct Exhibit 6 to trace the LBO value as given in Exhibit 8. Following the same process,
over time. (See Exhibit 9.) one can calculate the weighted average cost of capi-
The value of the shareholders’ stake is the total tal for each of the LBO years.
value of the LBO less the remaining debt balance. Using Exhibit 4 and the equity cash flows under
Exhibit 9 indicates that equity value rises by $38 the recapitalization plan, the return to equity with
($207 – $169) million over the first year of the LBO. this restructuring is constant at 19.9%. Weighting the
Adding to this the $1 million cash flow to costs of debt and equity by their relative use under
shareholders in that year (see Exhibit 7), the return the recap, the weighted average cost of capital is the
to equity is 23.0% ($39/$169), as given in Exhibit 8. 14.6% figure used in the text.
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE
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