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Word Econometria - Parcial
Word Econometria - Parcial
1) En este caso utilizaremos el modelo de ajusta parcial, para ello primero tendremos que
determinar el ciclo de cada de las series de tiempo
2) Luego aplicar el modelo de ajuste parcial
a) Determinando el clico del PBI
500,000
400,000
300,000
40,000 200,000
30,000
100,000
20,000
10,000
-10,000
-20,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
PBI HPTREND01
1980 167596 171118.7
1981 176901 170862.9
1982 176507 170571.8
1983 158136 170270.7
1984 163842 170044.0
1985 167219 169854.9
1986 182981 169604.5
1987 200778 169167.6
1988 181822 168552.8
1989 159436 168084.7
1990 151492 168220.6
1991 154854 169331.4
1992 154017 171620.6
1993 162093 175147.2
1994 182044 179793.7
1995 195536 185312.4
1996 201009 191478.2
1997 214028 198167.8
1998 213190 205353.5
1999 216377 213166.3
2000 222207 221815.4
2001 223580 231542.1
2002 235773 242591.6
2003 245593 255129.6
2004 257770 269253.5
2005 273971 284965.4
2006 294598 302152.6
2007 319693 320592.4
2008 348870 339986.5
2009 352693 360027.6
2010 382081 380497.4
2011 406256 401104.1
2012 431199 421571.8
2013 456435 441676.1
2014 467308 461289.0
2015 482506 480429.7
2016 501581 499178.1
2017 514215 517634.5
2018 534625 535923.4
2019 546408 554135.0
PBIcicl= T-τ
PBICICL
1980 -3522.737
1981 6038.097
1982 5935.159
1983 -12134.71
1984 -6202.002
1985 -2635.887
1986 13376.50
1987 31610.38
1988 13269.21
1989 -8648.663
1990 -16728.57
1991 -14477.38
1992 -17603.64
1993 -13054.16
1994 2250.313
1995 10223.55
1996 9530.848
1997 15860.24
1998 7836.466
1999 3210.661
2000 391.5948
2001 -7962.070
2002 -6818.585
2003 -9536.584
2004 -11483.51
2005 -10994.45
2006 -7554.642
2007 -899.3912
2008 8883.549
2009 -7334.581
2010 1583.622
2011 5151.908
2012 9627.190
2013 14758.86
2014 6019.050
2015 2076.284
2016 2402.910
2017 -3419.492
2018 -1298.372
2019 -7726.981
PBICICL
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-10,000
-20,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
10,000
-10,000
-20,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CPRCICL
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
-4,000
-8,000
-12,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Grafic del PBICICL y del CPRCICL
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-10,000
-20,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CPRCICL PBICICL
CPRt = α0 + α1 PBI + ut
t-Statistic Prob.*
t-Statistic Prob.*
Entonces al modelo elegido hay que agregarle los términos AR (1) y MA(1)
Estimado el nuevo modelo: con los términos AR(1) AR(4) AR(8) MA(1 ) MA(3) y
MA(4)
D(EX) c AR(1) AR(4) AR(8) MA(1 ) MA(3) y MA(4)
XPF XP
XP XPF
2007Q1 22161 NA
2007Q2 24117 NA
2007Q3 26507 NA
2007Q4 27989 NA
2008Q1 26182 NA
2008Q2 26643 NA
2008Q3 28054 NA
2008Q4 27737 NA
2009Q1 23961 NA
2009Q2 25343 25840.18
2009Q3 26579 27206.96
2009Q4 29157 27445.64
2010Q1 25284 25386.12
2010Q2 26132 27095.31
2010Q3 27975 28321.35
2010Q4 29044 28506.93
2011Q1 26666 26577.70
2011Q2 28892 28216.64
2011Q3 29586 29322.53
2011Q4 29243 29496.60
2012Q1 31303 27772.38
2012Q2 27581 29336.89
2012Q3 29810 30334.93
2012Q4 29246 30499.16
2013Q1 27024 28956.55
2013Q2 28470 30449.16
2013Q3 30925 31350.88
2013Q4 30856 31508.67
2014Q1 27273 30131.78
2014Q2 27673 31554.83
2014Q3 28536 32370.63
2014Q4 29332 32524.68
2015Q1 27171 31298.67
2015Q2 27584 32654.67
2015Q3 30145 33393.97
2015Q4 32722 33546.52
2016Q1 28211 32457.82
2016Q2 31225 33749.41
2016Q3 34985 34420.70
2016Q4 37022 34573.56
2017Q1 32664 33609.80
2017Q2 36200 34839.68
2017Q3 37189 35450.62
2017Q4 36966 35605.26
2018Q1 34426 34755.15
2018Q2 38003 35926.05
2018Q3 37632 36483.54
2018Q4 37772 36641.13
2019Q1 34310 35894.35
2019Q2 36879 37009.02
2019Q3 37177 37519.28
2019Q4 38672 37680.72
2020Q1 NA 37027.87
2020Q2 NA 38089.04
2020Q3 NA 38557.65
2020Q4 NA 38723.63
Ruta de predicción: Proc=> Estructure/resice current page => en date
=< Quick =< equation => forecasting
2010M01 2.8573
2010M02 2.8548
2010M03 2.8403
2010M04 2.8407
2010M05 2.8461
2010M06 2.8387
2010M07 2.8234
2010M08 2.8025
2010M09 2.7911
2010M10 2.7921
2010M11 2.8061
2010M12 2.8164
2011M01 2.7878
2011M02 2.7712
2011M03 2.7799
2011M04 2.8163
2011M05 2.7756
2011M06 2.7647
2011M07 2.7419
2011M08 2.74
2011M09 2.7443
2011M10 2.7324
2011M11 2.7056
2011M12 2.6969
2012M01 2.6933
2012M02 2.6842
2012M03 2.6716
2012M04 2.6577
2012M05 2.67
2012M06 2.6712
2012M07 2.6358
2012M08 2.6165
2012M09 2.6033
2012M10 2.5881
2012M11 2.5992
2012M12 2.5676
2013M01 2.5524
2013M02 2.5785
2013M03 2.5945
2013M04 2.598
2013M05 2.6457
2013M06 2.7484
2013M07 2.7781
2013M08 2.8025
2013M09 2.7798
2013M10 2.7701
2013M11 2.7992
2013M12 2.7861
2014M01 2.8098
2014M02 2.8135
2014M03 2.8071
2014M04 2.7953
2014M05 2.7878
2014M06 2.7951
2014M07 2.787
2014M08 2.8154
2014M09 2.865
2014M10 2.9072
2014M11 2.9263
2014M12 2.9631
2015M01 3.007
2015M02 3.0802
2015M03 3.0931
2015M04 3.1215
2015M05 3.1517
2015M06 3.1624
2015M07 3.1829
2015M08 3.24
2015M09 3.2205
2015M10 3.2503
2015M11 3.3385
2015M12 3.3851
2016M01 3.4389
2016M02 3.5075
2016M03 3.4098
2016M04 3.3033
2016M05 3.3362
2016M06 3.3184
2016M07 3.3007
2016M08 3.3354
2016M09 3.3845
2016M10 3.3877
2016M11 3.4052
2016M12 3.398
2017M01 3.3419
2017M02 3.2619
2017M03 3.2655
2017M04 3.2488
2017M05 3.2745
2017M06 3.2695
2017M07 3.2505
2017M08 3.2428
2017M09 3.2476
2017M10 3.2525
2017M11 3.2423
2017M12 3.2483
2018M01 3.2166
2018M02 3.2496
2018M03 3.2533
2018M04 3.2317
2018M05 3.2749
2018M06 3.2722
2018M07 3.2785
2018M08 3.2896
2018M09 3.3129
2018M10 3.3354
2018M11 3.3768
2018M12 3.3663
2019M01 3.3454
2019M02 3.3231
2019M03 3.3062
2019M04 3.3056
2019M05 3.3342
2019M06 3.3275
2019M07 3.2921
2019M08 3.3793
2019M09 3.3591
2019M10 3.3615
2019M11 3.3737
2019M12 3.3574
2020M01 3.3289
2020M02 3.3918
2020M03 3.4938
2020M04 3.4002
2020M05 3.4236
2020M06 3.4719
2020M07 3.5192
2020M08 3.5659
2020M09 3.557
2020M10 3.5978
2020M11 3.6109
2020M12 3.6056
2021M01 3.6266
2021M02 3.6476
2021M03 3.7103
2021M04 3.7036
2021M05 3.7764
2021M06 3.9158
2021M07 3.9445
2021M08 4.09
2021M09 4.1106
2021M10 4.0187
2021M11 4.0233
2021M12 4.0423
1) probando que la serie de tiempo TC es una serie estacionaria
t-Statistic Prob.*
t-Statistic Prob.*
Dependent Variable: TC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/28/22 Time: 12:56
Sample: 2010M01 2021M12
Included observations: 144
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/28/22 Time: 12:57
Sample (adjusted): 2010M02 2021M12
Included observations: 143 after adjustments
Variance Equation
4.3) Probar si el modelo cumple con las condiciones requeridas para el modelo ARCH
6.64E-05 > 0 ; 0.628376 < 1
4.4) Con el objeto de aplicar la prueba t-student y F a los parámetros es necesario
que los residuos tengan distribución normal y que los residuos no tengan
autocorrelacion
Ruta: Ruta: Proc=> make residuos=> ordinary => View=> Discriptive statistics
test=>Histograma Stats
24
Series: RESID08
20
Sample 2010M01 2021M12
Observations 143
16 Mean 0.001640
Median 0.000529
12 Maximum 0.037297
Minimum -0.032518
8
Std. Dev. 0.011507
Skewness 0.271074
Kurtosis 4.398501
4
Jarque-Bera 13.40463
0 Probability 0.001228
-0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03
Como el estadístico Jarque Bera = 13.4046 > X2 (5% , 2 grados de libertad)= 5.99 => los
residuos del modelo ARCH estimado no tiene distribución normal, sin embargo
sabemos que cuando se estima un modelo con una muestra mayor de 100
observaciones toda distribución que no sea normal tiende a tener una distribución
normal por lo cual la prueba T-student y F serán verdaderas y confiables en esta cas
5. Estimando el modelo GARCH
Variance Equation
.028
.024
.020
.016
.012
.008
.004
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
.0008
.0006
.0004
.0002
.0000
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Conditional variance
.0001750
.0001700
.0001650
.0001600
.0001550
.0001500
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Forecast of Variance
LOGTC LOGTCF
2010M01 1.049877 NA
2010M02 1.049002 1.050664
2010M03 1.043910 1.051450
2010M04 1.044051 1.052237
2010M05 1.045950 1.053023
2010M06 1.043346 1.053810
2010M07 1.037942 1.054596
2010M08 1.030512 1.055383
2010M09 1.026436 1.056169
2010M10 1.026794 1.056956
2010M11 1.031796 1.057742
2010M12 1.035459 1.058529
2011M01 1.025253 1.059315
2011M02 1.019280 1.060102
2011M03 1.022415 1.060888
2011M04 1.035424 1.061675
2011M05 1.020867 1.062461
2011M06 1.016932 1.063248
2011M07 1.008651 1.064034
2011M08 1.007958 1.064821
2011M09 1.009526 1.065607
2011M10 1.005180 1.066394
2011M11 0.995324 1.067180
2011M12 0.992103 1.067967
2012M01 0.990767 1.068753
2012M02 0.987383 1.069540
2012M03 0.982678 1.070326
2012M04 0.977461 1.071113
2012M05 0.982078 1.071899
2012M06 0.982528 1.072686
2012M07 0.969187 1.073472
2012M08 0.961838 1.074259
2012M09 0.956780 1.075045
2012M10 0.950924 1.075832
2012M11 0.955204 1.076618
2012M12 0.942972 1.077405
2013M01 0.937034 1.078191
2013M02 0.947208 1.078978
2013M03 0.953394 1.079764
2013M04 0.954742 1.080551
2013M05 0.972936 1.081337
2013M06 1.011019 1.082124
2013M07 1.021767 1.082910
2013M08 1.030512 1.083697
2013M09 1.022379 1.084483
2013M10 1.018883 1.085270
2013M11 1.029334 1.086056
2013M12 1.024643 1.086843
2014M01 1.033113 1.087629
2014M02 1.034429 1.088416
2014M03 1.032152 1.089202
2014M04 1.027939 1.089989
2014M05 1.025253 1.090775
2014M06 1.027868 1.091562
2014M07 1.024966 1.092348
2014M08 1.035104 1.093135
2014M09 1.052568 1.093921
2014M10 1.067190 1.094708
2014M11 1.073739 1.095494
2014M12 1.086236 1.096281
2015M01 1.100943 1.097067
2015M02 1.124995 1.097854
2015M03 1.129174 1.098640
2015M04 1.138314 1.099427
2015M05 1.147942 1.100213
2015M06 1.151331 1.101000
2015M07 1.157793 1.101786
2015M08 1.175573 1.102573
2015M09 1.169537 1.103359
2015M10 1.178747 1.104146
2015M11 1.205522 1.104932
2015M12 1.219383 1.105719
2016M01 1.235152 1.106505
2016M02 1.254904 1.107292
2016M03 1.226654 1.108078
2016M04 1.194922 1.108865
2016M05 1.204832 1.109651
2016M06 1.199483 1.110438
2016M07 1.194135 1.111224
2016M08 1.204593 1.112011
2016M09 1.219206 1.112797
2016M10 1.220151 1.113584
2016M11 1.225304 1.114370
2016M12 1.223187 1.115157
2017M01 1.206540 1.115943
2017M02 1.182310 1.116730
2017M03 1.183413 1.117516
2017M04 1.178286 1.118303
2017M05 1.186165 1.119089
2017M06 1.184637 1.119876
2017M07 1.178809 1.120662
2017M08 1.176437 1.121449
2017M09 1.177916 1.122235
2017M10 1.179424 1.123022
2017M11 1.176283 1.123808
2017M12 1.178132 1.124595
2018M01 1.168325 1.125381
2018M02 1.178532 1.126168
2018M03 1.179670 1.126954
2018M04 1.173008 1.127741
2018M05 1.186287 1.128527
2018M06 1.185463 1.129314
2018M07 1.187386 1.130100
2018M08 1.190766 1.130887
2018M09 1.197824 1.131673
2018M10 1.204593 1.132460
2018M11 1.216929 1.133246
2018M12 1.213814 1.134033
2019M01 1.207586 1.134819
2019M02 1.200898 1.135606
2019M03 1.195799 1.136392
2019M04 1.195618 1.137179
2019M05 1.204233 1.137965
2019M06 1.202221 1.138752
2019M07 1.191526 1.139538
2019M08 1.217669 1.140325
2019M09 1.211673 1.141111
2019M10 1.212387 1.141898
2019M11 1.216010 1.142684
2019M12 1.211167 1.143471
2020M01 1.202642 1.144257
2020M02 1.221361 1.145044
2020M03 1.250990 1.145830
2020M04 1.223834 1.146617
2020M05 1.230693 1.147403
2020M06 1.244702 1.148190
2020M07 1.258234 1.148976
2020M08 1.271416 1.149763
2020M09 1.268917 1.150549
2020M10 1.280323 1.151336
2020M11 1.283957 1.152122
2020M12 1.282488 1.152909
2021M01 1.288296 1.153695
2021M02 1.294069 1.154482
2021M03 1.311113 1.155268
2021M04 1.309305 1.156055
2021M05 1.328771 1.156841
2021M06 1.365020 1.157628
2021M07 1.372322 1.158414
2021M08 1.408545 1.159201
2021M09 1.413569 1.159987
2021M10 1.390958 1.160774
2021M11 1.392102 1.161560
2021M12 1.396814 1.162347
2022M01 NA 1.163133
2022M02 NA 1.163920
2022M03 NA 1.164706
2022M04 NA 1.165493
2022M05 NA 1.166279
2022M06 NA 1.167066
2022M07 NA 1.167852
2022M08 NA 1.168639
2022M09 NA 1.169425
2022M10 NA 1.170212
2022M11 NA 1.170998
2022M12 NA 1.171785
2023M01 NA 1.172571
2023M02 NA 1.173358
2023M03 NA 1.174144
2023M04 NA 1.174931
2023M05 NA 1.175717
2023M06 NA 1.176504
2023M07 NA 1.177290
2023M08 NA 1.178077
2023M09 NA 1.178863
2023M10 NA 1.179650
2023M11 NA 1.180436
2023M12 NA 1.181223
2024M01 NA 1.182009
2024M02 NA 1.182796
2024M03 NA 1.183582
2024M04 NA 1.184369
2024M05 NA 1.185155
2024M06 NA 1.185942
2024M07 NA 1.186728
2024M08 NA 1.187515
2024M09 NA 1.188301
2024M10 NA 1.189088
2024M11 NA 1.189874
2024M12 NA 1.190661
1) Información:
2) Ahorros e ingreso disponible (en miles de millones de USD) :1970-1995
Año Ahorros(Yt) Ingreso disponible(Xt)
1970 61.0 727.1
1971 68.6 790.2
1972 63.6 855.3
1973 89.6 965.0
1974 97.6 1054.2
Punto 1975 104.4 1159.2
de 1976 96.4 1273.0
1977 92.5 1401.4
quiebre
1978 112.6 1580.1
1979 130.1 1769.5
1980 161.8 1973.3
1981 199.1 2200.2
1982 206.5 2347.3
1983 167.0 2522.4
1984 235.7 2810.0
1985 206.2 3002.0
1986 196.5 3187.6
1987 168.4 3363.1
1988 189.1 3640.8
1989 187.8 3894.5
1990 208.7 4166.8
1991 246.4 4343.7
1992 272.6 4613.7
1993 214.4 4790.2
1994 189.4 5021.7
1995 249.3 5320.8
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/13/22 Time: 11:17
Sample: 1970 1995
Included observations: 26
Yt = 1.016117 + 0.080332 Xt
SCR1= 1785.032
SCR2= 10040.21
4) Determinado:
La SCRNR= SCR1+SCR2=1785.032+10040.21= 11,825.242
5) Planteamiento de la hipótesis:
HO: a0= b0
a1=b1
H1: a0≠b0
a1≠ b1
6) Calculando el Fchow
(𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑹−𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑵𝑹) (𝟐𝟑𝟑𝟓𝟖.𝟓𝟐−𝟏𝟏,𝟖𝟐𝟓.𝟐𝟒𝟐 )
𝑲 𝟐
Fchow= 𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑵𝑹 = 𝟏𝟏,𝟖𝟐𝟓.𝟐𝟒𝟐 = 10.728
(𝑵−𝟐𝒌) (𝟐𝟔−𝟒)
7) En la tabla tenemos para 5% de significación F(2,22)= 3.44
1) Información:
Año yt Xt
1991 546 345
1992 574 344
1993 590 396
1994 650 417
1995 664 428
1996 663 445
1997 710 473
1998 767 522
1999 815 533
2000 841 542
2001 835 542
2002 843 585
2003 870 609
2004 935 672
2005 996 701
2006 1014 730
2007 1062 769
2008 1100 797
2009 1151 872
1991
2009
N= 1991-2009= 19; N= N1+ N2= 19=> N1= 17 y N2 =2
Ecuación no restringida: Yt = a0+ a1Xt+ u1t, se estima con N1=17
Ecuacion restringida: Yt = B0+ B1Xt+ u1t, se estima con N= 19
2)Estimando el modelo no restringido:
Para N1= (1991-2007): Yt = a0+ a1Xt+ u1t
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/13/22 Time: 12:37
Sample: 1991 2007
Included observations: 17
SCR1= 6615.97
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/13/22 Time: 17:43
Sample: 1991 2009
Included observations: 19
SCRR = 7969.582
4) Estimando el Fchow
(𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑹−𝑺𝑪𝑹𝟏) (𝟕𝟗𝟔𝟗.𝟓𝟖𝟐−𝟔𝟔𝟏𝟓.𝟗𝟗𝟕)
𝑵𝟐 𝟐
Fchow= Fchow= 𝑺𝑪𝑹𝟏 = 𝟔𝟔𝟏𝟓.𝟗𝟗𝟕 = 1.5344
(𝑵𝟏−𝒌) (𝟏𝟕−𝟐)
6) Como el Fchow= 1.5344 < F( 2,13)= 3.68 => se acepta la H0, lo que
implica que Las ultimas observaciones ( N2 ) si provienen del modelo que
genero la regresión del (periodo I) en base a N1
Otro ejemplo de aplicación
III)Prueba de Chow para más de dos periodos
1) Planteando la ecuación restringida:
Yt = B0 + B1 Xt + ut
a) En el año 1982 USA experimento una de sus peores crisis por lo cual se
supone que a partir de esa fecha el nivel de ahorros en relación al ingreso
disponible haya variado
b) De otro lado, El gobierno de Clinton se inicia en el año1992, por tanto
se supone que a partir de dicho año haya variado el nivel de ahorro en
relación al ingreso disponible por ende dividimos tres periodos, en este
tendríamos dos puntos de quiebre: 1982 y 1992, por lo tanto tendremos
N=N1 +N2 +N3
2) Siendo las ecuaciones no restringidas los siguientes:
N1: (1970-1981): Yt= a0+a1Xt+u1t
N2: (1982-1991): Yt= b0+b1Xt+u2t
N3: (1992-1995): Yt= c0+c1Xt+u3t
SCR1= 1785.032
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/13/22 Time: 13:13
Sample: 1982 1991
Included observations: 10
SCR2= 5487.867
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/13/22 Time: 13:16
Sample: 1992 1995
Included observations: 4
SCR3= 3869.722
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/01/22 Time: 20:18
Sample: 1970 1995
Included observations: 26
SCRR= 23358.52
(𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑹−𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑵𝑹) (𝟐𝟑𝟑𝟓𝟖.𝟓𝟐−𝟏𝟏,𝟏𝟒𝟐.𝟔𝟐 )
(𝑺−𝟏)𝒌 (𝟑−𝟏)𝟐
Fchow = 𝑺𝑪𝑹𝑵𝑹 : 𝟏𝟏,𝟏𝟒𝟐.𝟔𝟐 = 5.4816
(𝑵−𝑺𝑲) (𝟐𝟔−𝟑(𝟐))
H0 : a0 = b0 = c0
a1 = b1 = c1
H1 : a0 ≠ b0 ≠ c0
a1 ≠ b1 ≠ c1