Economic history of

Pakistan

Since independence in 1947, the

economy of Pakistan has emerged as a
semi-industrialized one, the on textiles,
agriculture, and food production, though
recent years have seen a push towards
technological diversification. Pakistan's
GDP growth has been gradually on the
rise since 2012 and the country has
made significant improvements in its
provision of energy and security.
However, decades of corruption and
internal political conflict have usually led
to low levels of foreign investment and
underdevelopment.[1]

Historically, the land forming modern-day

Pakistan was home to the ancient Indus
Valley civilization from 2800 BC to 1800
BC, and evidence suggests that its
inhabitants were skilled traders.
Although the subcontinent enjoyed
economic prosperity during the Mughal
era, growth steadily declined during the
British colonial period. Since
independence, economic growth has
meant an increase in average income of
about 150 percent from 1950 to 1996,
But Pakistan like many other developing
countries, has not been able to narrow
the gap between itself and rich industrial
nations, which have grown faster on a
per head basis. Per capita GNP growth
rate from 1985 to 1995 was only 1.2
percent per annum, substantially lower
than India (3.2), Bangladesh (2.1), and Sri
Lanka (2.6).[2] The inflation rate in
Pakistan has averaged 7.99 percent from
1957 until 2015, reaching an all-time high
of 37.81 percent in December 1973 and a
record low of -10.32 percent in February
1959. Pakistan suffered its only
economic decline in GDP between 1951
and 1952.[3]
Overall, Pakistan has maintained a fairly
healthy and functional economy in the
face of several wars, changing
demographics, and transfers of power
between civilian and military regimes,
growing at an impressive rate of 6
percent per annum in the first four
decades of its existence. During the
1960s, Pakistan was seen as a model of
economic development around the
world, and there was much praise for its
rapid progress. Many countries sought to
emulate Pakistan's economic planning
strategy, including South Korea, which
replicated the city of Karachi's second
"Five-Year Plan."
Ancient history

Indus Valley Civilization

The Indus Valley civilization, the first

known permanent and predominantly
urban settlement that flourished between
3500 BC to 1800 BC, featured a vibrant
economic system. Its citizens practised
agriculture, domesticated animals, made
sharp tools and weapons from copper,
bronze, and tin, and traded with other
cities.[4] Archaeological excavations
have uncovered streets, drainage
systems, and water supplies in the
valley's major cities of Harappa, Lothal,
Mohenjo-daro, and Rakhigarhi, revealing
an advanced knowledge of urban
planning.

View of Mohenjo Daro towards the Great Bath (circa 2500 BCE)

Although civilization had several urban

centers, much of the population resided
in villages, where the economy was
largely isolated and self-sustaining.
Agriculture was the predominant
occupation, as it helped satisfy the
villages' food requirements while also
providing raw materials for cottage and
small scale industries like textiles and
handicrafts. Besides farmers, other
occupational groups included barbers,
carpenters, doctors (Ayurvedic
practitioners), goldsmiths, weavers,
etc.[5]

Ceremonial vessel; 2600-2450 BC; terracotta with black paint; 49.53 × 25.4 cm

Through the joint family system,

members of a family often pooled their
resources to sustain themselves and
invest in business ventures. The system
ensured that younger members were
trained and employed in the family
business, while the elderly and disabled
were supported by their families. This
also prevented agricultural land from
being split and reaped a higher yield due
to the benefits of scale.[6]

Achaemenid Empire

soldiers of the three territories of Sattagydia, Gandhara and Hindush respectively from modern day's Pakistan
In 518 BCE, The Achaemenid Empire
conquered regions of modern day's
Pakistan. The conquered area was the
most fertile and populous region of the
Achaemenid Empire. An amount of
tribute was fixed according to the
richness of each territory.[7][8] The
province of the Hindush ('Ινδοι, Indoi)
was the Achaemenid district paying the
largest tribute, and alone represented
32% of the total tribute revenues of the
whole Achaemenid Empire.[7][8] It also
means that Indos was the richest
Achaemenid region in the subcontinent,
much richer than Gandara or Sattagydia.
Mauryan Empire

During the Maurya Empire (c. 321–185

BC), there were a number of important
changes and developments in the
economy of the region. For the first time,
most of Indian subcontinent was unified
under one ruler. With an empire in place,
trade routes became more secure,
thereby reducing the risks associated
with the transportation of goods. The
empire spent considerable resources
building roads and maintaining them
throughout the region. The improved
infrastructure, combined with greater
security, uniformity in measurements,
and the increasing usage of coins as
currency, all enhanced trade.[9]

Kushan Empire

After Mauryan Empire, the region came

under control of Indo-Greek Kingdom,
under which economy was rather vibrant
as evident by their coins, art and
architecture.[10][11]
Afterwards Kushan
Empire gained control in 1st century AD
and the region prospered under them.

Medieval history

Delhi Sultanate
Many historians argue that the Delhi
Sultanate was responsible for making
Indian subcontinent more multicultural
and cosmopolitan. According to Angus
Maddison, between the years 1000 and
1500, region's GDP, of which the
sultanates represented a significant part,
grew nearly 80% to $60.5 billion in
1500.[12]

Mughal Empire

A silver coin made during the reign of the Mughal Emperor Alamgir II
During the Mughal period (1526–1858) in
the 16th century, the gross domestic
product of the empire was estimated at
about 25.1% of the world economy.

An estimate of Indian subcontinent's pre-

colonial economy puts the annual
revenue of Emperor Akbar's treasury in
1600 at £17.5 million (in contrast to the
entire treasury of Great Britain two
hundred years later in 1800, which
totaled £16 million). The gross domestic
product of Mughal Empire in 1600 was
estimated at about 24.3 percent of the
world economy, making it the second
largest in the world.[13]
By the late 17th century, the Mughal
Empire was at its peak and had
expanded to include almost 90 percent
of South Asia. In 1700, the exchequer of
the Emperor Aurangzeb reported an
annual revenue of more than £100
million. Mughal India was now the
world's largest economy, responsible for
almost a quarter of global production, as
well as a sophisticated customs and
taxation system within the empire.

Silk route
scholars have suggested that trading
from Indian subcontinent to West Asia
and Eastern Europe was active between
the 14th and 18th centuries.[14][15][16]
During this period,local traders settled in
Surakhani, a suburb of greater Baku,
Azerbaijan.

Multani Caravanserai in Baku, was built for traders from Multan and is a testimony of trade relations between two
regions [17]

Further north, the Gangetic plains and

the Indus valley housed several centres
of river-borne commerce. Most overland
trade was carried out via the Khyber
Pass connecting the Punjab region with
Afghanistan and onward to the Middle
East and Central Asia.[18]

Colonial history

The railway network in 1909 in British India

After gaining the right to collect revenue

in Bengal in 1765, the East India
Company largely ceased importing
gold[19] and silver, which it had hitherto
used to pay for goods shipped back to
Britain.[20] In addition, as under Mughal
rule, land revenue collected in the Bengal
Presidency helped finance the
company's wars in other part of Indian
subcontinent.[20]

During the period 1780–1860, region's

status shifted from being an exporter of
processed goods for which it received
payment in bullion, to being an exporter
of raw materials and a buyer of
manufactured goods.[20] Fine cotton and
silk had been the main exports from
Indian subcontinent to markets in
Europe, Asia, and Africa in the 1750s.
Yet, by the second quarter of the 19th
century, raw materials, which chiefly
consisted of raw cotton, opium, and
indigo, accounted for most of India's
exports.[21]

While British colonial rule stabilized

institutions and strengthened law and
order to a large extent, British foreign
policy stifled regional trade with the rest
of the world. The British built an
advanced network of railways,
telegraphs, and a modern bureaucratic
system that is still in place today.
However, the infrastructure they created
was mainly geared towards the
exploitation of local resources, and left
the economy stagnant, stalled industrial
development, and resulted in an
agricultural output that was unable to
feed a rapidly accelerating population.

The British economic policies were most

obvious in Punjab where in 1885, the
Punjab administration began an
ambitious plan to transform over six
million acres of barren waste land in
central and western Punjab into irrigable
agricultural land. The creation of canal
colonies was designed to relieve
demographic pressures in the central
parts of the province, increase
productivity and revenues, and create a
loyal support amongst peasant
landholders.[22] The colonisation resulted
in an agricultural revolution in the
province, rapid industrial growth, and the
resettlement of over one million Punjabis
in the new areas.[23] A number of towns
were created or saw significant
development in the colonies, such as
Lyallpur, Sargodha and Montgomery. By
the 1920s the Punjab produced a tenth
of India's total cotton crop and a third of
its wheat crop. Per capita output of all
the crops in the province increased by
approximately 45 percent between 1891
and 1921.[24]

Post-independence history
GDP per capita development in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

Pakistan's population has grown rapidly

from around 30 million in 1947 to over
220 million in 2020. Despite this,
Pakistan's average economic growth rate
since independence has been higher
than the average growth rate of the world
economy during the same period.
Average annual real GDP growth rates[25]
were 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in the
1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average
annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s
with significantly lower growth in the
second half of that decade. See also[26]

1950s and 1960s: Initial decades

Economic growth during the 1950s

averaged 3.1 percent per annum, and the
decade was marked by both political and
macroeconomic instability and a
shortage of resources to meet the
nation's needs. After the State Bank of
Pakistan was founded in 1948, a
currency dispute between India and
Pakistan broke out in 1949. Trade
relations were strained until the issue
was resolved in mid-1950. Monsoon
floods between 1951–52 and 1952-53
created further economic problems, as
did uneven development between East
and West Pakistan.

Pakistan's economy was quickly

revitalized under Ayub Khan, with
economic growth averaging 5.82 percent
during his eleven years in office from 27
October 1958 to 25 March 1969.
Manufacturing growth in Pakistan during
this time was 8.51 percent, far outpacing
any other time in Pakistani history.
Pakistan established its first automobile
and cement industries, and the
government constructed several dams,
(notably Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam),
canals, and power stations, in addition to
launching Pakistan's space program.

Along with heavy investment in

manufacturing, Ayub's policies focused
on boosting Pakistan's agricultural
sector. Land reforms, the consolidation
of holdings, and strict measures against
hoarding were combined with rural credit
programs and work programs, higher
procurement prices, augmented
allocations for agriculture, and improved
seeds as part of the green revolution.
Tax collection was low, averaging less
than 10 percent of GDP.[27] The Export
Bonus Vouchers Scheme (1959) and tax
incentives stimulated new industrial
entrepreneurs and exporters. Bonus
vouchers facilitated access to foreign
exchange for imports of industrial
machinery and raw materials. Tax
concessions were also offered for
investment in less-developed areas.
These measures had important
consequences in bringing industry to
Punjab and gave rise to a new class of
small industrialists.[28]

Some academics have argued that while

HYV technology enabled a sharp
acceleration in agricultural growth, it was
accompanied by social polarization and
increased interpersonal and interregional
inequality.[29] Mahbub ul Haq blamed the
concentration of economic power to 22
families who were dominating the
financial and economic life of the
country by controlling 66 percent of
industrial assets and 87 percent of
banking.[30]

In 1959, the country began the

construction of its new capital city.[31] A
Greek firm of architects, Konstantinos
Apostolos Doxiadis, designed the master
plan of the city based on a grid plan
which was triangular in shape with its
apex towards the Margalla Hills.[32] The
capital was not moved directly from
Karachi to Islamabad; it was first shifted
temporarily to Rawalpindi in the early
sixties and then to Islamabad when the
essential development work was
completed in 1966.[33]

Economy of East Bengal in Pakistan

10:27

1971 documentary film about East Pakistan

The partition of British India and the

emergence of India and Pakistan in 1947
severely disrupted the country's
economic system. The united
government of Pakistan expanded its
cultivated area and some irrigation
facilities, but the rural population
generally became poorer between 1947
and 1971 because improvements did not
keep pace with the rural population
increase.[34] Pakistan's five-year plans
opted for a development strategy based
on industrialization, but the major share
of the development budget went to West
Pakistan, that is, contemporary
Pakistan.[34] A lack of natural resources
meant that East Pakistan was heavily
dependent on imports, creating a
balance of payments problem.[34]
Without a substantial industrialization
program or adequate agrarian expansion,
the economy of East Pakistan steadily
declined.[34] Blame was placed by
various observers, but especially by
those in East Pakistan, on the West
Pakistani leaders who not only
dominated the government, but also
most of the fledgling industries in East
Pakistan.[34]

1970s: Nationalization and

command economy
Tarbela Dam, the largest earth filled dam in
the world, was constructed in 1968.

Prime Minister Secretariat in the new

capital city
Spread over 1700 acres, Quaid-i-Azam
University was constructed in 1967.
Pakistan Steel Mills was constructed in
1973, making it the largest industrial mega-
corporation, having a production capacity
of 5.0 million tonnes of steel.

Economic mismanagement in general,

and fiscally imprudent economic policies
in particular, caused a large increase in
the country's public debt and led to
slower growth in the 1970s. Two wars
with India - the Second Kashmir War in
1965 and the separation of Bangladesh
from Pakistan also adversely affected
economic growth.[35] In particular, the
latter war brought the economy close to
recession, although economic output
rebounded sharply until the
nationalization of the mid-1970s. Large
generous aid from the United States also
declined after the global oil crisis in
1973, which had a further negative
impact on the economy.[36]

According to Muhammad Abrar Zahoor,

the nationalization of industries can be
divided into two phases. The first phase
started soon after the PPP came into
power and was motivated by
distributional concerns – to bring under
state control the financial and physical
capital controlled by a tiny corporate
elite. However, in 1974, the influence and
authority of the left wing within the party
significantly decreased: they had either
been marginalized or purged.5 As a
result, the second phase was less
ideologically motivated, and was instead
driven by the outcome of ad hoc
responses to various situations.6
Between 1974 and 1976, the style of
economic management Bhutto adopted
reduced the role of the Planning
Commission as well as its capacity to
offer advice to political decision-makers.
Corruption grew exponentially and
access to state corridors became a
primary avenue of accumulating a
private fortune. In this way, groups and
individuals in command of state
institutions used public intervention in
the economy "as a means for extending
their wealth and power."[37]

Bhutto introduced socialist economics

policies while working to prevent any
further division of the country. Major
heavy mechanical, chemical, and
electrical engineering industries were
immediately nationalized, as were banks,
insurance companies, educational
institutions, and other private
organizations. Industries such as KESC
were now under complete government
control. Bhutto abandoned Ayub Khan's
state capitalism policies, and introduced
socialist policies in a move to reduce the
rich get richer and poor get poorer ratio.
Bhutto also established Port Qasim,
Pakistan Steel Mills, the Heavy
Mechanical Complex (HMC) and several
cement factories. However, economic
growth slowed in the wake of
nationalization, with growth rates falling
from an average of 6.8 percent per
annum in the 1960s to 4.8 percent per
annum on average in the 1970s. Most
nationalized units went into loss
because decisions were not market-
based. Bhutto's government also failed
to meet distributional objectives. Poverty
and income inequality increased
compared to the previous decade and
the rate of inflation rose, averaging 16
percent from 1971 to 1977.[38]

1980s-1999: Era of privatization and

stagnation

Pakistan developed the first motorway in

South Asia in 1997; today it has expanded
to a 1,502 km long network.
The Soviet–Afghan War significantly
affected the economy of Pakistan, with
approximately 1.7 million Afghani refugees
moving to Pakistan.
Benazir Bhutto twice led the country during
this period and promoted social-capitalist
policies.
Jinnah International Airport was greatly
expanded in 1994, making it a regional
aviation hub.

GDP growth rate↓

Inflation rate↑

Periods
(according to Sartaj Aziz) (according to Sartaj Aziz)

1988-89 4.88%[39] 10.39%[39]

1989-90 4.67%[39] 6.04%[39]

1990-91 5.48%[39] 12.66%[39]

1991-92 7.68%[39] 9.62%[39]

1992-93 3.03%[39] 11.66%[39]

1993-94 4.0%[39] 11.80%[39]

1994-95 4.5%[39] 14.5%[39]

1995-96 1.70% 10.79%[40]

Pakistan's economy recovered

significantly during the 1980s via a policy
of deregulation, as well as an increased
inflow of foreign aid and remittances
from expatriate workers. Under
Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, "many of the
controls on industry were liberalized or
abolished, the balance of payments
deficit was kept under control, and
Pakistan became self-sufficient in all
basic foodstuffs with the exception of
edible oils."[38] As a result, Pakistan's rate
of GDP growth rose to an average of 6.5
percent per annum in the 1980s.
According to Sushil Khanna,[41] professor
at the Indian Institute of Mass
Communication, the completion of the
long gestation period of Tarbela Dam
also helped unleash unprecedented
agricultural growth, while fertilizer and
cement investments made in the 1970s
contributed to industrial growth. A
tremendous boost to economic activity
was provided by rising worker
remittances, which reached a peak of
US$3 billion in 1982–83, equivalent to 10
percent of the gross national product of
Pakistan. Zia also successfully
negotiated with the United States for
larger external assistance. In addition to
supplying direct aid to Pakistan, the U.S.
and its allies funneled about US$5–7
billion to the Afghan Mujahideen through
Pakistan, further uplifting the local
economy. Under Zia, economic policies
became market oriented, rather than
socialist.[42]

Pakistan's economy in the 1990s

suffered from poor governance and low
growth as it alternated between the
Pakistan Peoples Party under Benazir
Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League
(N) led by Nawaz Sharif. The GDP growth
rate sank to 4 percent and Pakistan
faced persistent fiscal and external
deficits, triggering a debt crisis. Exports
stagnated and Pakistan lost its market
share in a buoyant world trade
environment. Poverty nearly doubled
from 18 to 34 percent, causing the
Human Development Index of the United
Nations Development Programme to
rank Pakistan in one of its lowest
development categories during this time
period.

While both the Nawaz Sharif and Benazir

Bhutto governments supported
economic liberalization and privatization
policies, neither were able to
successfully implement them.[43] Both
parties have argued that this was due to
interruptions in the democratic process,
as well as unpredictable and difficult
political circumstances, such as
sanctions imposed after Pakistan's
nuclear tests in 1998. Although the stock
market did improve in Sharif's second
term and inflation was contained at 3.5
percent, as opposed to 7 percent in
1993–96, Pakistan still experienced low
development and high unemployment.[44]

2000s: Economic liberalization,

growth and re-stagnation

JF-17 Thunder became the first indigenous

combat aircraft produced by the country.
The poverty expenditure rate statistically
dropped to 34.5%—17.2% in 2008 as part of
the privatization programme.
PTCL was privatized in 2005, and boosted
revenue of over $1 billion.

Statue of a bull outside Islamabad Stock

Exchange
Following a military coup in October
1999, Pervez Musharraf became the
President of Pakistan in 2001 and
worked to address the challenges of
"heavy external and domestic
indebtedness; high fiscal deficit and low
revenue generation capacity; rising
poverty and unemployment; and a weak
balance of payments with stagnant
exports."[38] At this time, the country
lacked the foreign exchange reserves
needed to cover its imports or service its
debts, remittances and investments had
decreased by millions, and Pakistan had
no access to private capital markets.
Yet, sound structural policies coupled
with improved economic management
accelerated growth between 2002 and
2007. Approximately 11.8 million new
jobs were created during Musharraf's
term from 1999 to 2008, while primary
school enrollment rose and the debt-to-
GDP ratio dropped from 100 to 55
percent. Pakistan's reserves increased
from US$1.2 billion in October 1999 to
US$10.7 billion on 30 June 2004. The
rate of inflation fell, while the investment
rate grew to 23 percent of GDP, and an
estimated $14 billion of foreign private
capital inflows financed many sectors of
the economy. The exchange rate also
remained fairly stable throughout this
period. All revenue collection targets
were met on time and allocation for
development was increased by about 40
percent.[45] These gains can be attributed
largely to debt reduction and economic
reforms, but also to the procurement of
billions of dollars' worth of U.S. aid to
Pakistan in return for Pakistan's support
in the US-led war on terror.

After Musharraf's resignation in 2008

due to mounting legal and public
pressures, the PPP government once
again resumed control of Pakistan. The
administrations of Asif Ali Zardari and
Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani oversaw a
dramatic rise in violence, corruption, and
unsustainable economic policies that
forced Pakistan to re-enter an "era of
stagflation."[46][47][48] The Pakistan
economy slowed down to around 4.09
percent, as opposed to the 8.96 to 9.0
percent rate under Musharraf and
Shaukat Aziz in 2004–08, while the
yearly growth rate fell from a long-term
average of 5.0 percent to around 2.0
percent.[47] In its calculations, the
Pakistan Institute of Development
Economics pointed out that the "nation's
currency in circulation as a percentage
of total deposits is 31 percent, which is
very high compared to India,"[49] and its
tight monetary policy has been unable to
tame inflation, and only slowed down
economic growth because the private
sector is no longer playing a key role.[48]
Analyzing the stagflation problem, the
PIDE observed that a major cause of the
continuous era of stagflation in Pakistan
was a lack of coordination between
fiscal and monetary authorities.[48][49]

2010s: Privatization and

liberalization
3000 km long China–Pakistan Economic
Corridor construction began in 2015.
Pakistan rolled out 4G in 2014, aiming to
capitalize on over 140 million mobile
phones in the country.
Several mass transit systems have been
developed throughout Pakistan.

Fiscal year GDP growth Inflation rate

2013–14[50] 4.14%[51] 8.5%[52]

2014–15 4.24% 4.8%[53]

2015–16 4.5% 5.1%[53]

Projected[54]
In 2013, Nawaz Sharif returned to inherit
an economy crippled by energy
shortages, hyperinflation, mild economic
growth, high debt, and a large budget
deficit. Shortly after taking office,
Pakistan "embarked on a $6.3 billion IMF
Extended Fund Facility, which focused on
reducing energy shortages, stabilizing
public finances, increasing revenue
collection, and improving its balance of
payments position."[1] Lower oil prices,
better security, higher remittances, and
consumer spending spurred growth
toward a seven-year high of 4.3 percent
in the fiscal year 2014-15[55] and foreign
reserves increased to US$10 billion. In
May 2014, the IMF confirmed that
inflation had dropped to 13 percent in
2014 compared to 25 percent in 2008,[56]
prompting Standard & Poor's and
Moody's Corporation to change
Pakistan's ranking to a stable outlook on
their long-term ratings.[57][58][59]

The IMF loan program concluded in

September 2016. Although Pakistan
missed several structural reform criteria,
it restored macroeconomic stability,
improved its credit rating, and boosted
growth. The Pakistani rupee has
remained relatively stable against the US
dollar since 2015, though it declined
about 10 percent between November
2017 and March 2018.[1] Balance of
payments concerns have also reemerged
as a result of a significant increase in
imports and weak export and remittance
growth. In its South Asian Growth report,
the World Bank stated: "In Pakistan,
gradual recovery to around 4.5 per cent
growth by 2016 is aided by low inflation
and fiscal consolidation. Increases in
remittances and stable agricultural
performance contribute to this outcome.
But further acceleration requires tackling
pervasive power cuts, a cumbersome
business environment, and low access
to finance."[60] In his 2016 book, The Rise
and Fall of Nations, Ruchir Sharma
opined that Pakistan's economy is in its
'take-off' stage and termed the future
outlook for 2020 'very good,’ predicting
that Pakistan would transform from a
"low-income to a middle-income country
during the next five years."[61]

In 2016, articles by Forbes and Reuters

declared Pakistan's economy to be on
track to becoming an emerging market in
Asia, and affirmed that Pakistan's
expanding middle class is key to the
country's economic prospects.[62][63] On
7 November 2016, Bloomberg News also
claimed that "Pakistan is on the verge of
an investment-led growth cycle."[64] On
10 January 2017, The Economist
forecasted Pakistan's GDP to grow at 5.3
percent in 2017, making it the fifth
fastest growing economy in the world
and the fastest growing in the Muslim
world.[65][66]

2022-2023 Pakistani economic

crisis

Due to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in

2022, oil prices rose worldwide.[67] This
was one of the many contributing
factors that led to the draining of
Pakistan's Foreign Exchange
Reserves.[68] Excessive external
borrowings by the country over the years
had also raised the spectre of default.
This speculation caused the currency to
fall, making imports much more
expensive, putting more strain on the
Forex Reserves.[69]

This combined with factors like poor

governance, low productivity per capita
and the 2022 Pakistan Floods resulted in
a balance of payment crisis.[70] This has
triggered the country taking desperate
steps to persuade IMF to resume its $6
Billion bailout deal.[71]

See also
Economy of Pakistan
Belt and Road Initiative
Foreign aid to Pakistan
China–Pakistan Economic Corridor
 Gwadar Port

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