Theories of voting behaviour are used to explain why people vote the way they do, and it is

incredibly lucrative for pollsters to carry out and beneficial for political parties to understand to
maximise election performance. This essay will outline the three main theories of voting
behaviour: the rational choice mode, the sociological model, and the party identification model.
Overall, this essay will argue that the rational choice model is becoming more relevant in
explaining how people vote but that social cleavages such as age and location are still
important.

The Rational Choice Model treats voters as consumers who shop around for the party which will
represent their interests best, enabling voters to make a rational choice based on who will
benefit themselves most. This model is prominent in nations with an educated electorate who
have access to a wide range of media outlets. In the 2015 election, the main issues were
healthcare, education and the economy; However an Ipsos MORI poll showed that Labour beat
the Tories in 3 out of 4 main issues, the one they lost was the ‘economy’, nonetheless the Tories
still won a majority. Suggesting that some issues were more prioritized than others, indicating
the economy was the most important factor when voting is concerned. This model differs from
the Sociological Model, as Peter Pulzer’s interpretation of voting behaviour is based solely on
class and that other factors weren't as relevant - summed up by ‘Class is the basis of British
politics all else is embellishment’. Short-term factors such as Leadership can be seen as
influential alongside salient issues. Voters may vote based on a leader’s image and consider
qualities like past performances and their impression of the leader. Voters can ‘retrospectively’
judge leaders - voting based on how well a party performed previously or they can
‘prospectively’ judge leaders - voting based on how well they think a party may perform. In
2010, opinion polls saw Brown as dour and out of touch whereas Cameron was seen as young,
optimistic and energetic. For some political commentators, Brown’s poor image cost him many
undecided voters. However the limitations of this model are that it assumes the electorate is
politically educated enough to make a rational choice, whilst voters learn about politics primarily
through media outlets - this can influence their decision through a particular slant of choosing
which stories to cover. So will voters may research before making a decision but it's argued that
it's difficult to make a rational choice based on biased information.

The sociological model was founded on the basis that social class is the most accurate indicator
of voting behaviour. As parties explicitly appealed to specific classes, as Labour was founded on
a commitment to collectivism thus is backed by working classes whilst the Tories promoted
home ownership and low taxes which appealed to middle classes. In 1966; 75% of ABC1 voted
Conservative and 25% Labour, whereas 60% of C2DE voted Labour and 40% Tory. This is still
relevant today as Labour remains the most popular for working classes as well as the
Conservativs being favoured among middle classes. In 2015 a survey showed that 40% vote
according to their class. However due to class dealignment this number has dropped. Before
class dealignment voters identfied with the party they voted for, relating to the Party Identifcation
model. Nonetheless, 2015 showed that in C2; both Labour and Tories got 32% of the vote -
whilst UKIP got 19%. This suggests that the salient issue of Brexit was a more important factor
for voters correlating to the Rational Choice theory. While it’s evident that social classe’s
relevance is diminioshing, factors such as age are also influential in determining how people
vote. As in 2015; 63% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour (as they pledged to abolish tuition fees)
and 69% of 70+ voted Tory (always favoured low taxation for the wealthy). Showing that
sociological factors such as age are significant as voters will base their vote on how it may
impact their social grouping. Showing that this model shows clear differences between
long-term factors and how that affects voter’s decision. However, it’s argued that long-term
factors affect voter’s rational choice so the two ideologies should be looked at in relation to each
other.

The Party Identifcation Model is a long term psychological attachment to a party which stems
from how someone’s family may have voted and can be further reinforced by later social
experiences. In all of the elctiosn between 2000-2015; the majority of DE (a traditionally working
class category) voted Labour. Thus signifying that this model does have somewhat relevance
however it’s possible that under this model voters continue to vote for a party that no longer
meets their needs due to this loyalty. However psephologists argue that along with class
dealignment, party identification has also declined - this is due to the fact that more people have
started mixing with people outside of their social circle. In 1968; 48% of voters said they ‘
strongly identified with a party’. This figure dropped to just 17% in 2015. Therefore this model is
not as relevant due to class dealignment as there has been increase in people considering
salient issues and party leadership when voting while short term factors are becoming more
relevant when voting is concerned. 86% of the electorate identified with either “Leave” or
“Remain” - while 33% had no party affiliation. This shows that salient issues are becoming more
relevant. Therefore parties can’t rely on an ‘easy vote’ of partisan voters as short-term
influences are becoming increasingly more releavnt. This may be due to a an educated
electorate, which encourages more assessment of party policies rather than blind adherence to
a party regardless of their policies.

In conclusion, compared to the other theories, the rational choice theory of voting behaviour is
important in explaining voting behaviour in recent elections. In elections, pre-1970’s the
sociological model was dominant but it has declined in importance specifically due to class
dealignment and the electorates’ increase in political literacy. Party identification is also less
relevant as there has been a decline in the long-term attachment voters have to a political party.
This means that the rational choice model is now the most relevant. This could be due to an
increase in political knowledge with the availability of the Internet. This has been compounded
by class dealignment which has weakened the link between social class and voting behaviour.
Voters are much more volatile than previously and are much less likely to be attached to a
political party. This means there is an increase in the number of floating voters. These voters, as
they are less likely to be attached to a party, may be much more likely to be influenced by
short-term factors such as the effectiveness of a party’s campaign and the significance of key
policies For example, in the 2017 general election, there were significant changes in support for
the main parties during the campaign and this was attributed to the effectiveness of Labour’s
campaign, the poor reaction to Conservative manifesto policies such as social care.