Freshney Place, Grimsby The Retail Opportunity October 2010

Introduction & Contents

The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive overview of Grimsby focusing on catchment analysis and a demographic review. The following Gap Analysis will highlight those retailers missing from the town. Contents
Catchment Analysis & Demographics Gap Analysis Freshney Place Consumers

Catchment Analysis & Demographics

Grimsbys Retail Catchment

Market Shares Primary 86.0% Secondary 78.0% Tertiary 67.3%

Quaternary 7.% TOTAL 40.8%

Source: CACI 2010

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Grimsbys Market Shares

Catchment Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary TOTAL Market Share 86.0% 78.0% 67.3% 7.6% 40.8% Centre Classification Average 59.5% 37.4% 19.1% 2.5% 15.5%
Source: CACI 2010

The above table shows how Grimsbys market shares compare with that of its retail classification average. Grimsby is classified as an Average Centre within CACIs Retail Footprint model, and achieves considerably higher market shares than the average for this classification. One of the reasons for this is that there is a lack of good retail centres nearby providing a convenient alternative to Grimsby. Other centres that fall into this classification include: Doncaster, Bradford, Lincoln, Blackpool and Hereford

Grimsbys National Retail Rankings - CACI

Retail Centre City of London Broadgate Northampton Canterbury Grimsby Silverburn Luton Crawley Comparison goods expenditure (m) 404.6 399.9 382.8 382.6 382.6 375.4 374.9 National Ranking 65th 66th 67th 68th 69th 70th 71st Retail Centre Huddersfield Bradford Doncaster Grimsby Harrogate Leeds White Rose Halifax 68th Comparison goods expenditure (m) 468.8 463.9 437.4 382.6 372.4 339.2 279.1 nationally and 9th Regional Ranking 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Source: CACI 2010

Within CACIs Retail Footprint model Grimsby is ranked and The Humber region.

within Yorkshire

These rankings are based on levels of comparison goods expenditure that is modelled as attracted to that centre and falls within a defined catchment.
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Grimsby Retail Rankings Javelin

Retail Centre Basingstoke Peterborough Bolton Grimsby Stoke on Trent Swindon Blackpool Venuescore 198 197 196 196 196 196 193 National Ranking 63rd 64th 65th 65th 65th 65th 69th Retail Centre Meadowhall Doncaster Harrogate Grimsby Huddersfield Bradford Wakefield Venuescore 240 229 204 196 193 172 146 Regional Ranking 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Source: Javelin 2010

Within Javelins Venuescore model Grimsby is ranked 65th nationally and 8th regionally These rankings are based on a scoring system which takes into account the presence in each location of multiple retailers.

Grimsbys Competing Centres

882 645 629 800 1,038 613 951 644 1,496 2,286
Centres shown all have a Retail Footprint score greater than 600. This score reflects quality and quantity of retail offer. The figures shown are the Retail Footprint score

951

1,305

1,707 789 942

Source: CACI 2010

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Development Pipeline
City / Town Scheme Name Owner / Developer Retail Gain sq ft Total retail space sq ft Planning status Opening date Comments

Lincoln

Lindongate

Lincoln Co-op

346,439

346,439

Outline Application

No date as yet

The development partnership for the scheme has collapsed and a new application is anticipated. This will be submitted by a new partnership headed by Lincoln Co-op.

Source: Egi 2010

The above scheme, should it go ahead, is not expected to have a considerable impact on Grimsbys footfall and level of spend. There are no new schemes proposed for Grimsby currently.

Grimsby's leakage
The chart shows the market share from Grimsbys total retail catchment that is retained by Grimsby, plus the market share that is leaked to competing centres Those centres that achieve a market share less than 2% have been excluded. Grimsby retains a relatively high percent of the total available market, mainly due to a lack of compelling alternative centres nearby.
Source: CACI 2010
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Grimsbys Acorn profile

Source: CACI 2010

Grimsbys retail catchment correlates strongly with Yorkshire & The Humber average indicating a catchment which is similar to the regional average (correlation of 0.87).
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Blue Collar Roots are the largest Acorn group within the Retail Footprint catchment accounting for 19% of the catchment, higher than both the GB and regional average. These people are predominantly employed in blue collar occupations and incomes are moderate to low. Affluent Greys and Flourishing Families are both present above the GB and regional average indicating pockets of affluence within the catchment.

Retail Catchment Demographics

The social grade of the catchment is lower than both the GB and regional average. The percentage of both ABs and C1s is slightly lower than the average for Yorkshire & The Humber and the GB. Against the GB average, Grimsby has a lower percentage of 25 to 34 year olds. 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 year olds are in line with the GB average.

Source: CACI 2010

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Retail Catchment Demographics cont.

Projected population growth for Grimsbys catchment is lower than both the regional and national average. However, population growth is predicted at 2.9% up to 2015 and 6.0% up to 2020. In terms of gross family income, 44.9% of the households earn more than 30,000 within Grimsbys catchment. This is slightly lower than the Yorkshire & The Humber average of 51.8% and the GB average of 60.1%.

Source: CACI 2010

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Grimsbys Resilience Ranking

Overall Ranking 312th Business 297th Community 281st People 292nd Places 299th
Source: Experian 2010

North East Lincolnshire, the local authority area which Grimsby falls into, is ranked 312th out of 324 centres in terms of resilience as defined by Experian. The research takes an holistic view of local areas and ranks them in terms of their ability to respond to economic factors such as public sector cuts. The actual methodology is attached in the appendix at the back of this report. In order to get to the overall ranking, 4 factors are scored looking at employment rates, house prices, business density, earnings, life expectancy, crime rates, % of workforce self employed etc. With an overall ranking of 312th, North East Lincolnshire falls into the bottom 10% of areas ranked and suggests an area which is susceptible to the likely cuts in public spending.

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Gap Analysis

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Benchmarks for Gap Analysis

The purpose of selecting benchmarks is to select suitable centres to feed into Jones Lang LaSalles in house Gap Analysis model. Benchmarks have been selected on a number of factors including
Acorn correlation with Grimsby Comparison goods expenditure Centre classification Retail Footprint score

The benchmarks selected for Grimsby are Blackpool, Burton upon Trent, Darlington, Doncaster, Hanley and Huddersfield. The following slide shows retail variables for each of the benchmarks in order to show how Grimsby compares. These benchmarks then feed into the Gap Analysis.

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Benchmark Comparisons
Retail Centre Grimsby Darlington Hanley Burton on Trent Huddersfield Doncaster Blackpool Acorn correlation n/a 0.95 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.83 0.82 Centre classification Average Centre Average Centre Average Centre Average Centre Average Regional Centre Average Centre Average Centre Comparison goods expenditure (m) 382.6 347.4 427.5 322.2 468.8 437.4 362.6 RF score 951 911 912 988 1,038 1,141 958 % Premium 8.0% 11.1% 7.1% 6.8% 8.9% 8.3% 5.3% % Mass 60.2% 53.4% 60.1% 60.9% 57.5% 60.8% 68.2% % Value 31.7% 35.5% 32.8% 32.3% 33.5% 30.9% 26.5% Source: CACI 2010

The above slide shows how the benchmark centres compare to Grimsby in terms of expenditure, Retail Footprint score and the retail mix. The Acorn correlation shows how closely matched the catchment profiles are to that of Grimsby.
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Gap Analysis
Jones Lang LaSalles in house Gap Analysis tool identifies those retailers that are trading within some or all of the selected benchmarks but not trading in Grimsby. For the purpose of this analysis retailers have been highlighted that are trading in two or more of the benchmark centres. The analysis identifies retailers that the management team at Freshney Place might be interested in approaching if they are looking to alter or add to the retailer profile in the future.

Clothing
Ann Harvey Azuri Blue inc Envy H&M La Senza Miss Selfridge Moss Peacocks Wallis Accessories Accessorize F Hinds
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Gifts Birthdays Toymaster Sporting Goods Sports Direct.com Up & Running Yeomans Outdoors Health & Beauty Lush

Footwear Barratts Department & Variety stores Debenhams Home Bargains T J Hughes

Goldsmiths HPJ

Freshney Place Consumers

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Freshney Place Consumers

The map shows the home location of shoppers surveyed in Freshney Place. Of those surveyed 31% live within a 5 minute drive time, 70% within 10 minutes, 80% within 15 minutes and 85% within a 20 minute drive time.

Source: Grosvenor consumer data 2010

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Freshney Place Consumers

Source: Grosvenor consumer data 2010

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Freshney Place Consumers

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Source: Grosvenor consumer data 2010

Freshney Places Acorn profile

25% 19% 13% 6% 0%

Grimsby

Yorkshire & The Humber

GB average

Freshney Place

The chart above shows how the profile of Freshney Place compares with that of Grimsbys Retail Footprint catchment
Source: CACI 2010 and Grosvenor consumer data
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The consumer data demonstrates that Freshney Place attracts a less affluent consumer than the catchment profile shows. Against Grimsbys profile, the percentage of actual consumers that were surveyed shows a higher percentage of Blue Collar Roots and Struggling Families and a lower percentage of Wealthy Executives, Affluent Greys and Flourishing Families. This suggests that Freshney Place is not managing to attract the more affluent consumers

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