India Chart Book – August’18

DART Research
Tel: +9122 4096 9700
E-mail: research@dolatcapital.com

August 21, 2018

August 21, 2018 2
 0
4
2
6
8

-2
10

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14

-20

-30
-10
10
20
30
Jan-14 Sep-14 Oct-14
Dec-14
Apr-14 Dec-14 Feb-15
Jul-14 Mar-15 Apr-15
Oct-14 Jun-15

August 21, 2018

Jun-15 Aug-15
Jan-15

Source: DART, CMIE

Oct-15

Source: DART, MOSPI

Apr-15 Sep-15
Dec-15

WPI
Jul-15 Dec-15 Feb-16
Oct-15 Mar-16 Apr-16
Jun-16
Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-16
Apr-16 Oct-16
Sep-16
Jul-16 Dec-16

WPI and Fuel & Power

Core Industries growth
Dec-16 Feb-17
Oct-16

Source: DART, Indian Port Association, CMIE

Mar-17 Apr-17
Jan-17 Jun-17
Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17
Core Industries Growth &IIP (%)

Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

Fuel & Power

Traffic across major ports (YoY %)
Dec-17
IIP
Oct-17
Dec-17 Feb-18
Jan-18 Apr-18
Mar-18 Jun-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
4

0
2
6
8

Jul-18
-6
-4
-2
10
12

3
India Macros - Economy

0
4

-8
-6
-4
-2
2
6
8
10
0
30
20
40

-40
-30
-20
-10
10

100
120

0
40
80

-40
20
60

-20
Nov-15 Feb-15 Nov-15
Jan-16 Apr-15 Jan-16
Mar-16 Jun-15 Mar-16
May-16 Aug-15 May-16
Oct-15

Source: DART, CMIE

Source: DART, CMIE
Source: DART, CMIE

Jul-16
Exports

Jul-16 Dec-15
Sep-16 Sep-16
Feb-16
Apr-16 Nov-16
Nov-16

Food Articles
Jun-16 Jan-17

Thermal Coal
Jan-17
Aug-16 Mar-17
Mar-17 Oct-16 May-17
May-17 Dec-16 Jul-17
Feb-17
Non-POL

Jul-17 Sep-17
Sep-17 Apr-17
Nov-17
Thermal & Coking coal traffic

Jun-17
Nov-17 WPI - Food and Non-Food Article Aug-17 Jan-18
Coking Coal

Jan-18 Oct-17 Mar-18

Mar-18 Dec-17 May-18

Non Food Articles

POL

May-18 Feb-18 Jul-18

Apr-18
0
20
40
60
80

Jul-18
Exports Including POL & Non-POL (YoY %)

-60
-40
-20
120
100
140

Jun-18
India Macros - Economy
CPI Inflation Trajectory PMI- Services (YoY %)
8% 56
Grow th
54
6% 4.17 52
4% 50
Contraction
2% 48
46
0%
44
Jul-16

Nov-16
Dec-16

Jul-17

Nov-17
Dec-17

Jul-18
Aug-16
Sep-16

Aug-17
Sep-17

Aug-18
Sep-18
Jan-17

Jun-17

Jan-18

Jun-18
Oct-16

May-17

Oct-17

May-18

Oct-18
Mar-17

Mar-18
Feb-17
Apr-17

Feb-18
Apr-18

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18
Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18
Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17
Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18
If CPI is flat If CPI falls by 0.5 per month
If CPI increases by 0.5 per month If CPI increases by 1 per month
Index value(50= no change)

Source: DART, MOSPI Source: DART, Market Economics Company

Production Pattern and Growth (YoY %) FDI Inflow (USD bn)

2016-17 (3rd Adv Est.) 60
350
2017-18 (3rd Adv Est.) 50 44.9
280 43.5
40
306
355

210
109
112

140 30
45
44
35
33

33
31
27
26

25
22

70
20
0
10

FY16
FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY17

FY18
Source: DART, Dept of Agriculture Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce

India CAD as % of GDP GDP (%)

9 7.5 7.5
0.0 8
FY19*
FY18*
FY15

FY17
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14

FY16

-0.5 7
-1.0 6
5
-1.5 4
-2.0 (1.8) 3
2
-2.5 1
-3.0 (2.6) 0
Q1FY19E
Q2FY19E
Q4FY17
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17

Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18

-3.5
-4.0
-4.5
-5.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: DART, RBI, * Bloomberg Estimates Source: DART, MOSPI, E: Bloomberg

August 21, 2018 4

India Macros - Economy
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Export and Import YoY growth (%)
0 45%
(1) 35%
25%
(2)
15%
(3) 5%
-5%
(4) (3.5) (3.3)
-15%
(5) -25%
(6) -35%

Jan-17
Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18
Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
(7)

FY18E

FY19E
FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17 Export Import

Source: DART, Ministry of Finance, Source: DART, Ministry of Commerce

10 Year Gsec Yield GDP (%)

9.5 10
9
9.0 7.4
8
8.5 7 6.6
8.0 6
5
7.5 4
7.0 3
2
6.5 1
6.0 0

FY18E*
FY19E#
FY08
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07

FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Aug-13

Nov-17
Aug-11
Nov-11

Aug-12
Nov-12

Nov-13

Aug-14
Nov-14

Aug-15
Nov-15

Aug-16
Nov-16

Aug-17

Aug-18
May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Feb-12

Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Source: DART, RBI, Till 20 August, 2018 Source: DART, RBI, * 2nd Advance Estimates, Economic Survey
2017-18, # Economic Survey 2017-18 Estimates

Agri Production pattern (Mn Tonne) Disinvestments

300 110,000 100,057
100,000 80,000
250 90,000
80,000 72,500
200 70,000
150 60,000
50,000
9,220

100 40,000
30,000
50 20,000
10,000
0 0
FY19*
FY16
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY17

FY18
FY18E
FY14
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13

FY15
FY16
FY17

Kharif Production Rabi Production Disinvestments Budget Estimates (` Cr) Actual

Source: DART, Department of Agriculture Source: DART, DIPAM, * As on 20 August, 2018

August 21, 2018 5

India Macros - Industry

Core Ind.-Cement & Steel Production Electricity & Petroleum Refinery Growth
Growth (%)
25 25 20
20 20
15 15
15
10 10 10
5
5 5
0
-5 0 0
-10 -5
-5
-15 -10
-20 -15 -10

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18
Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17
Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18
Dec-15
Dec-14

Jun-15
Aug-15

Jun-16
Aug-16

Dec-16

Jun-17
Aug-17

Dec-17

Jun-18
Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17
Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18
Growth of Cement Growth of Steel - RHS Electricity Petroleum Refinery Products
Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

Consumer Durable & Non-Durable Growth (%) CV Production & Sales (YoY %)
25 100
20 80
15 60
40
10
20
5 0
0 -20
-5 -40
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17
Mar-16
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
May-18
Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18
Aug-16

Aug-17
Oct-15

Feb-16
Apr-16

Oct-16

Feb-17
Apr-17

Oct-17

Feb-18
Apr-18

Consumer Non Durables Consumer goods Total Production Total Sales

Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, CMIE

Production, Sales incl. exports of tractors NHAI Targeted, Awarded & Constructed
(YoY%) (KMS)
100 16000
14000
15,000

70
12000
40
10000
9,829

10 8000
6000
7,400

-20
4000
-50 2000
Jan-16

Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17

Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18

Jul-18
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
May-16

May-17

May-18

0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Production Sales incl. exports Targeted Awarded Cons truction

Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, NHAI

August 21, 2018 6

India Macros - Industry

Railway Revenue Earning Freight Traffic of NASSCOM IT Services projection vs Actual

Major Commodities (incl. Domestic & Exim Container) growth
30 40 40
25
20 30 30
15
10 20 20
5
0 10 10
-5
-10 0 0
-15

FY19E
FY13

FY17
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12

FY14
FY15
FY16

FY18
Jan-15

Jul-15

Nov-15
Jan-16

Jul-16

Nov-16
Jan-17

Jul-17

Nov-17
Jan-18

Jul-18
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
Guidance - Lower End (%) Guidance - Upper End (%)
Total container traffic Total Freight Traffic Actual Growth USD (%)

Source: DART, CMIE Source: DART, NASSCCOM

Passenger Vehicle Trend MHCV Trend

400,000 30 60,000 200
350,000 25 50,000 150
300,000 20
250,000 15 40,000 100
200,000 10 30,000 50
150,000 5 20,000 0
100,000 0
50,000 (5) 10,000 (50)
0 (10) 0 (100)
Jul-17

Jul-18
Jun-17

Aug-17
Sep-17

Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18

Jun-18
Jun-17
Jul-17

Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18

Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-17
Sep-17

Oct-17
May-17

May-18
May-17

Feb-18

May-18

Apr-17

Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Oct-17

Mar-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

PV YoY (%) MHCV YoY (%)

Source: DART, SIAM, PV includes Passenger Cars, Utility Vehicles Source: DART, SIAM, MHCV includes Passenger Carriers & Goods
& Vans Carriers

LCV Trend Two-wheeler Trend

80,000 60 2,500,000 40
70,000 50
2,000,000 30
60,000 40
50,000 1,500,000 20
30
40,000
20 1,000,000 10
30,000
20,000 10
500,000 0
10,000 0
0 (10) 0 (10)
Jul-17

Nov-17
Dec-17

Jul-18
Aug-17
Sep-17
Jul-17

Jul-18
Jun-17

Aug-17
Sep-17

Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18

Jun-18

Jun-17

Jan-18

Jun-18
May-17

Oct-17

May-18
Mar-18
Oct-17

Apr-18
Apr-17

Feb-18
May-17

May-18
Apr-17

Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18

LCV YoY (%) Two Wheelers YoY (%)

Source: DART, SIAM, LCV includes Passenger Carriers & Goods Source: DART, SIAM, Two-wheelers includes Scooters, Motorcycles
Carriers and Mopeds

August 21, 2018 7

 -

325
345
365
385
405
425
50
100
150
200
250
Jun-11

-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000

-25,000
-15,000
Oct-15
Nov-15 Oct-11
Dec-15 May-16 Feb-12
Jan-16 Jun-16
Feb-16 Jun-12
Mar-16 Jul-16 Oct-12

August 21, 2018

Apr-16 Aug-16

Source: DART, RBI

May-16 Sep-16 Feb-13

Vehicle Loans
Jun-16 Jun-13

Housing (RHS)
Jul-16 Oct-16
Aug-16 Nov-16 Oct-13

Consumer Durables
Sep-16 Dec-16 Feb-14
Oct-16 Jan-17 Jun-14
Nov-16 Feb-17
Dec-16 Mar-17 Oct-14
Jan-17 Apr-17 Feb-15

Total MF Inflow*
Feb-17
May-17 Jun-15

Source: DART, AMFI, * Equity + ELSS

Mar-17

Source: DART, RBI, As on 10 Aug 2018

Apr-17 Jun-17 Oct-15
May-17 Jul-17 Feb-16
Jun-17 Aug-17
Jul-17 Sep-17 Jun-16
Aug-17 Oct-16
Sep-17 Oct-17
Oct-17 Nov-17 Feb-17
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jun-17
Dec-17 Jan-18
Jan-18 Oct-17
Feb-18

FII Inflow
Feb-18 Feb-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
Apr-18 Jun-18

Mutual Funds and FII’s inflow in ` Cr.

Apr-18
May-18
-

Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD bn)

Personal Loans (RHS)

May-18
Credit Card Outstanding

Jun-18 Jun-18
250
500
750

Jul-18
India Macros - Finance

Personal & Credit Card outstanding (` bn)

Jul-18
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000

Aug-18

8
5
6
7
8
9
60
62

58
64
66
68
70

500
5000

2000
3500
6500
Aug-12 8000 Aug-13
Nov-12 Apr-16 Nov-13
Feb-13 May-16 Feb-14
May-13 Jun-16

3,122
May-14
Aug-13 Jul-16
Aug-16 Aug-14

Source: DART, RBI

Nov-13

Source: DART, AMFI

Feb-14 Sep-16 Nov-14
Oct-16
May-14 Nov-16 Feb-15
Aug-14 Dec-16 May-15

Repo
Nov-14 Jan-17
INR vs USD

Feb-17 Aug-15
MF SIP (` Cr)

Feb-15 Nov-15
May-15 Mar-17
Apr-17 Feb-16
Aug-15 May-17
Nov-15 Jun-17 May-16

RBI Policy Rates (%)

Feb-16 Jul-17 Aug-16
Source: DART, RBI, As on 20 August 2018

May-16 Aug-17
Sep-17 Nov-16
Aug-16 Oct-17 Feb-17
Nov-16 Nov-17 May-17

Reverse Repo
Feb-17 Dec-17
May-17 Jan-18 Aug-17
Aug-17 Feb-18 Nov-17
Mar-18
Nov-17 Apr-18 Feb-18
Feb-18 May-18 May-18
May-18 Jun-18
7,554

Jul-18 Aug-18
Aug-18
 DART RATING MATRIX
Total Return Expectation (12 Months)
Buy > 20%
Accumulate 10 to 20%
Reduce 0 to 10%
Sell < 0%

DART Team
Purvag Shah Managing Director purvag@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9747

Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities amit@dolatcapital.com +9122 4096 9745

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