AI-Powered Plunger-Lift Trigger System

Ali Ahmed
Waleed Nasir
Plunger Lift System
Plunger Lift System

• Clear Liquid/Gaseous Slug out of the Gas or Oil Wells for

Sustained and Optimized Production.

• Optimized Production: Maximize Gas Volume and Reduce

Downtime due to Equipment Damage.

• Solution? Automated Plunger Lift System for Optimized

Production.

• Solution: Run a Plunger Controlled Through an Automatic AI

Asist System to Maximize Gas Volume and Equipment Damage is
Less Probable.

https://www.slb.com/resource-library/oilfield-review/defining-series/defining-plunger-lift
Plunger Lift System: Operational Stages

• Cycle = Shut-in + Flow

• Flow = Unloading + After-Flow

Shut-in: Plunger Unloading: After-Flow: After-Flow:

resting, pressure Plunger moves Well cleared, Liquid load
mounting upward gas production accumulates

https://www.slb.com/resource-library/oilfield-review/defining-series/defining-plunger-lift
Plunger Lift System: Operational Stages

• Surface valve closes (Shut-in begins) Cycle

• Pressure mounts in tubing/casing (Shut-in) Shut-in Flow

• Surface valve opens (Shut-in ends, Flow begins)

Unload After-Flow
• Mounted pressure in the last Shut-in propels plunger
upwards (Unloading)
Arrival Non-Arrival
• Plunger arrives: Liquid load removed and well cleared
(Unloading) Venting

• Plunger does not arrive: Venting begins, upwards Lower Optimized Higher Short Optimized Long
Velocity
pressure differential increases pushing plunger to the Velocity Velocity Duration Duration Duration

surface, liquid load removed and well cleared

(Unloading, Venting)
Average Gas
Equipment Life
Production Rate
• Gas production begins (After-Flow)
Problem Setup

• Raw features (Predictors): Instantaneous casing, line,

tubing pressures, and flow rates.

• Derived features: Liquid load, upward pressure, load

ratio, etc., based on physical equations.
Raw Features Unknown
• Control/Triggers: Shut-in duration, after-flow Controls/Triggers Non-Linear
Targets
duration, pressure set-points. Model of a
Derived Features Gas Well
• Targets: Plunger velocities, gas productions rates
forecast.
Problem Statements - 1

• Unknown features? Unknown gas well model?

• Does it generalize across wells with different physical

conditions?
1. Unknown and varying chemical and physical Raw Features Unknown
composition of downhole slug Controls/Triggers Non-Linear
Targets
Model of a
2. Different depths and diameter wells Derived Features Gas Well
3. Different downhole dynamically changing gas
pressures due to unaccounted and unknown
factors
Problem Statements - 1

• Prior knowledge on the physical characteristics of

well?

• Mathematical equations modelling the physical

Raw Features Unknown
behavior of well? Non-Linear
Controls/Triggers Targets
Model of a
• Data driven approach? Derived Features Gas Well

• Do wells with close proximity (connected to the same

well reservoir or pad) share similar characteristics?

• Can we transfer learning among wells?

Problem Setup

Cycle
Control variables impact the targets in a non-trivial and
conflicting ways!
Shut-in Flow
• Shut-in duration=TimeOff (Longer?)

1. Higher velocities that result in frequent Unload After-Flow

equipment damage, increased down time and
negatively impacts avg. gas production rate Arrival Non-Arrival

2. Higher upward force clears well properly and Venting

positively impacts avg. gas production rate

Lower Optimized
3. Reduces zero-production duration and Velocity Velocity
Higher
Velocity
Short
Duration
Optimized
Duration
Long
Duration
positively impacts avg. gas production rate

• Shut-in duration=TimeOff(Shorter?) Average Gas

Equipment Life
Production Rate
1. Vice versa …
Problem Setup

Cycle
Control variables impact the targets in a non-trivial and
often conflicting ways!
Shut-in Flow

• Flow duration = TimeOn (Longer?)

Unload After-Flow
1. Decrease in avg. gas production rate over time
due to increasing liquid slug in the well Arrival Non-Arrival

2. Longer After-Flow duration means fewer Shut- Venting

ins (fewer zero-Production zones, increasing avg.
gas production rate!)
Lower Optimized Higher Short Optimized Long
Velocity Velocity Velocity Duration Duration Duration
• Flow duration = TimeOn (Shorter?)

1. Vice-versa ... Average Gas

Equipment Life
Production Rate
Problem Statement - 2

Cycle

Shut-in Flow
• How to optimize Shut-in and After-Flow
durations to maximize avg. gas production rate
and minimze equipment damage? Unload After-Flow

Arrival Non-Arrival

Venting

Lower Optimized Higher Short Optimized Long

Velocity Velocity Velocity Duration Duration Duration

Average Gas
Equipment Life
Production Rate
AI-Powered Shut-in End Trigger System
Feature Selection: Velocity Prediction

• Raw Features • Derived Features • Control Inputs • Targets

1. CsgPrOpen 1. Load 1. OpenTrig 1. Velocity

2. CsgPrClose 2. UpLift 2. OpenTrigRef 2. AvgGasProd/Min
3. TbgPrOpen 3. LdRatio 3. CloseTrig 3. Arrival
4. TbgPrClose 4. CsgDiff 4. CloseTrigRef 4. NonArrival
5. LinPrOpen 5. TbgDiff 5. Venting
6. LinPrClose 6. LinDiff
7. MeterDPClose 7. AvgGasProd/Min
8. CsgCycleMin
9. VolCycleTotal MQTT Data will Provide Many Additional Features, Instantaneous Values
10. FlowRateClose of Pressures, Velocities, and Flow Rates.
11. TimeOn
12. TimeOff
Feature Selection: Velocity Prediction

• Raw Features • Derived Features • Controls/Triggers • Targets

1. CsgPrOpen 1. LiqdLd 1. OpenTrig 1. Velocity

2. CsgPrClose 2. UpLift 2. OpenTrigRef 2. AvgGasProd/Min
3. TbgPrOpen 3. LdRatio 3. CloseTrig 3. Arrival/NonArrival
4. TbgPrClose 4. CsgDiff 4. CloseTrigRef 4. Venting/NonVenting
5. LinPrOpen 5. TbgDiff 5. Slow/Normal/Fast
6. LinPrClose 6. LinDiff Velocity
7. MeterDPClose 7. AvgGasProd/Min
8. CsgCycleMin
9. VolCycleTotal
10. FlowRateClose
11. TimeOn
12. TimeOff
Derived Features using Physical Equations
• Derived Features

1. LiqdLd = CsgOpen - TbgOpen

2. UpLift = CsgOpen - LinOpen
3. Ld Ratio = Liquid Load/Upward Pressure
4. TbgDiff = TbgOpen - TbgClose
5. CsgDiff = CsgOpen - CsgClose
6. LinDiff = LineOpen – LinClose
7. AvgGasProd/Min of Previous Cycle

• Need to work more on integrating model-based

physics equations into our ML approach to
improve results
Exisiting Controls/Triggers
• Controls/Triggers (ValOpen or Shut-in End) • Controls/Triggers (ValClose or Shut-in Begin)

1. MaxPrCsg 1. MeterDPClose
2. MaxPrTbg 2. PrCsg
3. PrTbg-PrLin 3. FlowRateMin
4. PrCsg-PrTbg 4. Non-Arrival
5. MaxTimeOff 5. Manual or Advanced ValClose
6. Manual or Advanced ValOpen
• Want to set-up more advanced AI-powered triggers for shut-in begin and end

• Automate begin and end of shut-in. Reduce manual interventions

• Ideal shut-in end: Clears the well, restores maximum gas production rate, plunger velocity under
control, minimum equipment wear and tear

• Ideal shut-in start or after flow end: maximizes gas production, flow rate min, liquid load not too
much, what are the ideal values of casing and tubing pressures or any other known constraints for
shutin start?
Exploratory Data Analysis: Correlations
• Correlations: features, controls, and targets (Velocity, AvgGasProd/Min)
Stage-1: Train the Predictors

• Training Data: (Inputs, Targets) = TabNets Suited for Tabular Data

• Train custom-made specialized neural net

architectures for predictions on data

• Returns a non-linear predictor modelling the well XG-Boost: Random Forest

Stage-2: Tweak Decision Boundary of the Classification Predictions

• Three Classes

1. Low Velocity (ft/min):

2. Normal Velocity (ft/min):
3. High Velocity (ft/min):

• Velocites are not clearly separable

• Classifier confused in the overlapping region: ‘Bad

Velocities’ (Class 1 & 3) might be misclassified as ‘Good
Velocities’ (Class 2) – Unacceptable.

• Class 2 is the trigger for shut-in end

Stage-2: Tweak Decision Boundary of the Classification Predictions

• Three Classes

1. Low Velocity (ft/min):

2. Normal Velocity (ft/min):
3. High Velocity (ft/min):

• Velocites are not clearly separable

• Want a high confidence in trigger: When triggered it should

be a good velocity with high confidence! Avoid making
wrong triggers.

• How to increase trigger confidence in an overlapping data?

Stage-2: Tweak Decision Boundary of the Classification Predictions

• Three Classes

1. Low Velocity (ft/min):

2. Normal Velocity (ft/min):
3. High Velocity (ft/min):

• How to increase trigger confidence in an overlapping data?

• Precision (Class 2) Recall (Class 1) Recall (Class 3)

• Increase precision of trigger Class 1 at the cost of high

recall of Class 1 and Class 3: Confident Trigger
AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0, 0

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.985, Recall = 0.834, Recall = 0.892.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0, 0

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.985, Recall = 0.834, Recall = 0.892.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.2, 0.2

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.999, Recall = 0.985, Recall = 0.998.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.2, 0.2

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs Features: Precision = 0.999, Recall = 0.985, Recall = 0.998.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.10, 0.10

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.997, Recall = 0.926, Recall = 0.982.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.10, 0.10

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.997, Recall = 0.926, Recall = 0.982.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.16, 0.14

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.999, Recall = 0.980, Recall = 0.996.

AI-Powered Optimized Velocity Trigger, Thresholds = 0.16, 0.14

• True Labels vs. Features

• Predictions vs. Features: Precision = 0.999, Recall = 0.980, Recall = 0.996.

Fine Controlled AI-Powered Shut-in End Trigger System
Fine-Control Trigger for Velocity

• Predict velocity based on given features

• Utility: Build a fine-control trigger for shut-in

end that only triggers for a given range of
velocities

• Individual features vs. Velocity values

• Do we have informative features?

• Are the valocity values consistent? No. Only

average velocities reported. Avg. velcoites are
wrong especially in case of venting.

• No way to figure out instantaneous velocities

from the given data
Exploratory Data Analysis: Velocity Values
Fine Control Triggers for Velocity: Stage-1

• Training Data: (Inputs, Targets) = TabNets Suited for Tabular Data

• Train custom-made specialized neural net

architectures for predictions on data

• Returns a non-linear predictor modelling the well XG-Boost: Random Forest

Stage-2: Optimize the Set-Points/Control Variables

• Trained well predictors

TabNets: Continuous Models Suitable for Optimizing

• Want to find set points to achieve a specific normal
velocity or increase the gas production target

• Optimize set points/control variables to achieve the

target

Fixed Variable Fixed

• Returns set points =

Fixed: Trained Model
Results
Results
Results
Results
Results
Results
Explainable AI: Understand Gas Well Operations and Trigger Sys
XAI: Explain the Predictions

• Explain the model predictions using explainable AI

• Improve human-machines interaction
• Gives insights to the onsight engineers on the well behavior
• Set triggers in an informed way
Fine Control Velocity Trigger: Conclusion and Recommendation

• Velocity Value Predictor R2 Score: 0.73

• Mean squared error: 0.30

• Model learned almost all that data had to offer: Evident from the
predictions vs. real target results

• Provide actual instantaneous velocities data during unloading

• Place acoustic sensors

• Instantaneous velocities combined with MQTT data will enable

more accurate results

• Better data will only improve results from here

AI-Powered After-Flow End Trigger System
Feature Selection: After-Flow End Trigger

• Raw Features • Derived Features • Control Inputs • Targets

1. CsgPrOpen 1. Load 1. OpenTrig 1. Velocity

2. CsgPrClose 2. UpLift 2. OpenTrigRef 2. AvgGasProd/Min
3. TbgPrOpen 3. LdRatio 3. CloseTrig 3. Arrival
4. TbgPrClose 4. CsgDiff 4. CloseTrigRef 4. NonArrival
5. LinPrOpen 5. TbgDiff 5. Venting
6. LinPrClose 6. LinDiff
7. MeterDPClose 7. AvgGasProd/Min
8. CsgCycleMin
9. VolCycleTotal MQTT Data will Provide Many Additional Features, Instantaneous Values
10. FlowRateClose of Pressures, Velocities, and Flow Rates.
11. TimeOn
12. TimeOff
Exploratory Data Analysis and Predictions
Exploratory Data Analysis and Predictions
Exploratory Data Analysis and Predictions
Exploratory Data Analysis and Predictions
Exploratory Data Analysis and Predictions
Results
Results

• Verticle: AvgGasProd/Min = TotalVol/Cycle/TimeOn

• Horizontal: TimeOn
• Train a model:
ROI: Gas Production
• VolProd/Cycle =

• AvgVolProd/Minute (during Flow) =

• AvgVolProd/Minute (Prediction) =

• Given Data:

• Train a model:

• VolProd/Cycle (Predicition) .

• VolProd/MinuteTotal (during Full Cycle)

• VolProd/Day
After-Flow End Trigger: Conclusion and Recommendation

• FlowRateClose and TimeOn are the main features that impacting the AvgGasProd/Min

• CsgOpen, TbgOpen, LinOpen show not much correlation with the TimeOn

• MQTT Data: Need instantaneous pressures during After-Flow to see any dependence on
Upward Pressure and Liquid Load
Platform: Front End + Back End
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Platform (Backend+UI/UX)
Return on Investment
ROI: Relationship between high velocities and plunger replacement

• Understand relationship between high velocities and plunger replacement

Average velocity for all points above

900 ft/min between replacements for
200 wells

vs

Duration between replacements

• A more involved model predicting the remaining useful life of plungers can also be built
ROI /4000 Wells / Year: AI-Powered Velocity Trigger System
Est. Plunger
Est. Plunger Maintenance Cost Downtime in Days
Average of High Reduction in Downtime Gas
Expected Life of Maintenance of 4000 (One Day Per
Velocity Points Velocity w.r.t. Production Loss
Plunger (days) Cost/ Well/ Year Wells/Year Plunger
(m/𝐬 𝟐 ) 5000 m/𝐬 𝟐 (%) ($ Dollars)
($ Dollars) ($ Millions of Replacement)
Dollars)

5000 0 2.48 104990 419.9 105 73500

4500 10 3.96 73590 294.36 73 51100
4000 20 5.67 54710 218.88 54 37800
3500 30 7.7 41970 167.88 41 28700
3000 40 10.18 32660 130.64 32 22400
2500 50 13.37 25400 101.60 25 17500
2000 60 17.87 19340 77.36 19 13300
1500 70 25.56 13740 54.96 14 9800
1000 80 94.64 3820 15.28 4 2800
ROI: Gas Production
• VolProd/Cycle =

• AvgVolProd/Minute (during Flow) =

• AvgVolProd/Minute (Prediction) =

• Given Data:

• Train a model:

• VolProd/Cycle (Predicition) .

• VolProd/MinuteTotal (during Full Cycle)

• VolProd/Day
ROI: Gas Production
• Well ID: AR/VAN BUREN/PATTON SISTERS 11-14-27 PAD1/WELLS/WELL_3

• Projected increase of revenue for this well is: 250K$

• Assuming an increase of 20% of projected revenue for this well results in an increase of 205.35m$
revenue increase for 4000 wells
ROI: Gas Production

• Well ID: AR/VAN BUREN/ROTHWELL 9-12-16 PAD1/WELLS/WELL_2

• Projected increase of revenue for this well is: $400K

• Assuming an increase of 20% of projected revenue for this well results in an increase of $352.35m
revenue increase for 4000 wells
ROI: Gas Production

• Well ID: AR/VAN BUREN/WOOD CHARLES 9-13-6 PAD2/WELLS/WELL_2

• Projected increase of revenue for this well is: $288K

• Assuming an increase of 20% of projected revenue for this well results in an increase of 231.84m$
revenue increase for 4000 wells
ROI: Gas Production
• Well ID: AR/CONWAY/DELTIC TIMBER 9-16-36 PAD4/WELLS/WELL_3

• Projected increase of revenue for this well is: $1150K

• Assuming an increase of 20% of projected revenue for this well results in an increase of 924.86m$
revenue increase for 4000 wells
Labour Cost Saving

• # of On Sight Engineers to Manage 4000 Wells (Mainly Triggers) = 60

• If AI Assisted System is Can Cut on Well Management Work Force by 50%

• Amount Saved/Year = 30*120K = 3.6 Million Dollars

Exit: Questions?