nA ————" 22a? UNIT D PROBABILITY > Conartional probability - Bates iiebron 5 i Random variables - Pr1Screte and continous - AistviGutton functions - Hathematical expectations - varcances and Varrants ~ Btonomtal diotrceution - Normak divstri6u- tion - potssion drstribution © Random eaperement = : gf an experiment, 13 conducted any tmes under essentiall ong there 13.a, Set of mes associated sath tt numé6er of t identucal condrte au possr6le outco Equatly iukely events: ; : Events are sara to 6e equally (kely when there 9 0 veason to expect any one of them vather than any one op the otheys exhaustrve Events: AU possrble even Exfaustive events: nts oe mutually ex ne of The happen tng ts in any trarl ane Known as Hutuwally exclusive eve Events are gard to we tf the happening of anyio event tn @ trarl exclude the any one of the others: Classical Vefenttvon of probability — an a random experiment let there 6e (small) Ww. mutuauly exclus ve and “al clust-eq woulLy (rkely elementary events — het ‘E’ Be The event Of ‘the experement Then the probabr lity Of & a6, defrned as Oe eae oe n pce) > No of favourable events tn € Ti tak Wa ee ae MONE: Total no-of events née @ of e denotes mon- occurance Of E then | pC€)+ PCE) =! pcé) = 1-. pce) ‘pcey= I> pce @® Ihe probability ts always Of PCEE1 _ problem - : © What ts the probability of Leap Year to fave 5% mondays and 5S sunday § : e the event and a leap year ie 366 = #052) +2" be any one, of ey fae Is) containing 566 days These two days can The following 4 Aays Cways) PIS origun . Mon Cx) CORE CNOOW '- Hon tue i 19 Sr) Bate: 25 wed be - txea tO baw ie eee wed ges onty 52 mondays A FYO gg one 08 ThG, doy Bei oeniGotss 998444 ond Da auc é : amother, 19 NOE! AVG gtx 2 Stun. “inion aay “dt 13. The aa “OU (ast coscail 9055 ele! Ceconrse | | | | } t-,_ —E be the event Raving 52 monday and 53 gundays tn a Year The total no - of posst oestOle cages = | ‘Ble cases n=F Te no of P = ! pice) Ethie Bee n ¥ Anwmotie definition of probability — Let ¢ be a finite sample gpace a neal value funtion p from a sample Space S to veal number R tS called probability function on 6 OF The following thre € axtoma are gatigfred ci) Axiom 6} positivity guoset of ECS) niy Axtom 06 certarnt ty PCO ae i tity Axiom of unton if © ana 63orelduaiam ages Of 2 then ple; VEa) - pce) * p(Ea) tiv) The image ple) of E % catled The probability 0} the event E~ Sample Space She set of atl possréle outwmes of 2r catked Samp pce) 20 “for every exrperrment tS le 6pace and tt {1g denoted by 5 Example O when a doine Weegee Therfore Sample Space 62 thyaS O When two dice are volted then ; BS - Git cn aoy Gli 3) tipuy, WNPd He \ fo fac, 72) OY (2,5) a 63,1) (32) yy to) CP 16) vy C43) Cy) Cu)6) (ue) : eur) (Us Bi ea 2 Ce m2) (5,3) (oy) (5/5) (5,6 'Le) (6,2) (3) (6,4) Ges) C66),9 * Random variables :- apoB i A vandom variable X ‘on'a Sample — Space S 15 a functton K+ SR Creatnun Hat assign a Heal number x65), te each Sample point SES herve xX(5) +epresents | veal number whtch the vandom vartable X — associates WIth Outcome S$ Note: © Randomvartaéle are usucct ly denoted by ! Captial letters and patiadar values tn which Handom variable takes and denotes by Te corres Baa amall letters Eq: whens coins ave tossed at @ time Theyfor ‘ Sample Space $= ave g eS (cus) CH,T,H) Cat, 7) OTT) (TH) C174) ut) Re Condcttonal probabrirty « "SF €, an@ E, ave two events tna sampleOQ Two mary6les are dyawn in successtve of ahoe containing 1o rea ,30 White , 20 blue ,15 ovange may6les with repfacement betng made after each draw. find The probability that a) Both ave white’ tii) Fivst (8 red, Seco nd to white: eocsmhe, TPF WNONBLES 2.10130 #20 2a Gy Wek) By 02, qThe, event ot dina the fivat avaw marble be white’ “pas 30 = 1a +5 5. let E, be the event ‘ r the Seconda draw marble tg wacte ices) =, 50 = 45 be AS €, tS The fivst event tat «3 done — = Ex) P( Sle) pe Nes J PCE) vets gwenes® Sy Oba) = ple) pc eles) os 2 ia 2aeG PCE, NE.) ae aa (my) Weermey be The event The first Gran marble be ved fen. UCh Fo a nosey 1S tek 6. be the event me second dyad merble "5 30 ae & se ah sie, he O00. TB ogy - plEro Gr) 5% PEW), PC ELE) : S150 149 BO a PAS oth. Ree ee ee 15 oy A iF © A Gorrcontaing 5 ved, 3rohtte ana Box (ontaing ared, bwhite-afa bau ts drawn” from cach Gor What 6 The probabi lity That They ave Both are Same colour - Sol: wet €, be The event the frvet ball Avawn from bo ped — = ple; > Slaven = 5 Bae chee) 16 (et €, be The event the baudraon from por | Pebe ev oe pis 2d epee) $ Bolin proba iliity that botn mare Same colouy PCE VE) = PCE): Plex) oe ae IG 8 P(E AG): > 2 (28 5 les €, be the eenl The ball is draun from | BeepCGs) SO B0¢8l aap pa) BR 16 j leg E, be the es the Gall vS drawn score bow 8 ts white | | 2 : 3 63 kg i” ee y at Gia eR Rt y A and is & vs abo ved leg are ox -e whiteThe probabtuty nat both marbles are Sane — Colour * P Lex nba) =) Pees?” PEW) > 4 P(E Ex) UC a 128 Bayes Theorem’. tle Gy, C25, 2-58 En aie: Se ert mutually exclusive and exhaustrve events Such Thar BOGE) 7s af Ova las (J2,3,- 1 foro sample gpaceS and A’ te any otney event tn 9 intersecting with every Gc men Beck /A) R PCEK)-P (Alex) ao ees P(E) ¥P (AIG, )+ PCEL)* P (Ales) ~~ - + PCEn): P(Alen) @ A businessman qves to hotels X4 & ROT 507.1307. OF Tne tume respectively fb ts Knoung Thar Si}, , us. ah The room x%,4,%- hotel fave faaliptumeing - pustnesS man room Aaweng Gpeeectadg- plumbing lw assigued 10 hota t* fou Self Let The probabl lity of bustnes gman gong ty Aokels ee US what vg The prob abruty Tet OLX) © AO Ip ee aon (090 (eee Ply) = Soy woe = \oo 2 30% Pe)Peix) = 5% 2 St I Go 20 Cie iis sue Ee PCE) ae ae 25 ROGie = ope 2 8a) Hy 1g 100 25 gir’ py oaovicty That yoom Rawe foley qj ng to Aotel te e Z) (pe i eye 7 PC 2 (p [z) ee = | 3 a (2s)* Cale) | vs ; ae OB alos 1OGri9 500,, leo pee Borg seit 3; ’ pt Ssvasso fitow Pl25 4. Bi hor it We@s Tiga 7 ISK neBm 8 oi: Random variable” Random variables are two types > Olecrete Random variable > Continous Random varcable > Olscrete Random variable’ A Random warinble' x’ which can take only a finite no-of argcrete values in an interval Of domain ts Colled Otecrete Random varta6 (Cc 6g: The nO OF Atffectives in a Sample electree buts” The no “Of printing mestalkes in each pause OF & ©ook™ > bontin ous Random vaviab Le* A Random variaele x’ watch can take oouLue continously That tS tohich take AU posstHle VALLES (n a given tntervad ts Glled Kontos Yondom variable 6h The heignt weight, age. - aber) =) ; Probab lary Ops tr6 utvo function: , tee x be a Mandom wartable Then The proba br lt} digtyr6ution function associated with X 16 defined 28 The probable ty That the outcome of an experiment 1S X(S)2%, LER and it 1S denoted by ONE 95 2D eae ; 2 fe Wade eu), OGgitial Os 2 2 RS areasOiscvete Probasluity Distr utvon ; -, ProbablUty dtstyi6utcon of Random varvable (3 get of All possiele values together with respective probabriitves Suppose X to a dtécrete randbm vartable ' Of outcome 6 ea hah a ANCL Tae! discrete distrtéutton Pace Pcasxi) for t=N7 ae Aaktefy The two condlttons — _ Oy P(x) 0 GG PGs), =s0 caued probability mage functton and The Sf POL) ts catled ‘Arocrete probabrlrty distr t6ultts Eg: Tos6tng a coin Two tines then sample | Space 6 = fHu, TT, ut, THI then pCx®o) = fretting no head = Vy pig >1) = Geverng One cad. kas. \ FT | Pone 2) = Getting two Reads = 9 G 615-0, (ae) ) a a Expectation’ Suppose a random wartaé lex assume The values Ciro ooee. 1. LOT Yespectvve PreGabiitves p,, pa, Pz +~'Ph ee the expectatvon 18 defined ag )Taare 0 af x 3 Re on varvable ‘ana k's @! constant then EGX +h) = Cero he ee Caen ECs Cee a4 @ Ext 4d = erey rer NOTE: Mean *- 3h ae jhe mean value M after atscrete distributt- Vaxtance * a : sie wartance &” of the drscrebe des trvoution 1 = = ECx2) a cor) ‘ at = 2 eee Cea) i ; (or) j 1 4 oe t 1 Cau: =) Standara Meveatton (60) -~ at 19, The ec The agartoun ce: cor) Jvaxtamce C= S10) ) Coe Me equasre root Of NoTe* Oar X % a random variaote Then } a Then. Dake Teeaw) = xq +(x 8) A random varvable ™ fiag The follocotng probabritty function x “ooo Biv Pia eee Prem) 0 kK 2k 2K 3k” k? 2k2 aK ek Qekermrne ~— ol ciy k - a (Wy) Evatuate PCxrZ6 , procx <4) on SP pcx 2 k)etastid WD pcx 26), PCOC* <5) e mtntmum value Of K- 4 p: Determune the distributvon guuactton Of Ke Ww) Mean ti) Varromce Cvti) 8D% spt wd) By Beiun ven we have Ps pcx) =! ees 42k 49K + Kk y 3 D 10K*+4aK-1 = 0 oe > 1oK>+10kK-K-I =O -2 19 KCK+I)-1 (Kt =0 = (Kt) Ciok-!) =O 2 We) Sand ake pee KO Bee 1) pcx Z6)= poy 20) + PLE HI) 4 pOx =2) 7 pcx =3)+ PCK=4)4 PCx =5) = O4+K+ 2K 42K ¥8k +K™ = Kr +4 BkI GRE ptx 26) = opc 26) Sune ie oe ijiee eke aa ACU ITR og i = 4k*+Kh IDM IIA GORA x4 ee eo Godt) «one 100 10 i sal prezx5) = pcx Bi) epiCr aa) tae 23) + porew) e Kr rkt2rk 43h = SK ? = ao. * ; 10 = E poe xu) = pcx =oy+t pcx =) + pce=2) poe) + pcx 24) = Gu ientectinn SY = BK : rok oO ° (0 ry (ily) The matnimum VaLe of K tf poxé Ka qnen pcxeO? * pcx =0)=.8 pcx aN 2 pex zo) 4 peer { Ee Ont ty a ea A Vo RS pcx > Db rp ORO a pcx =0) + Pc Bonet ee Pleo! pty 20) + pox?!) bens RRO = othtrk Baie =k. 7 J 6:5 prey) = pcx=o) + pen) pe epee pcx =u) 5 oa Kaw trk 43K 2 cl Sk = By 2,038 el, a Oc OsThe mtntmum value op k 15 14° v) The Otstributvon of x 15 aS follows } sg F Ox) 0 Oo ! t P o-oo ye ne mT oe QK a oo. =0-3 lo is 4 2K Bo b= eo 10 4: ) ie BK = & =08 3 10 BK +KS = 90 tea coe alm oO Oe = 0:614+0-02= 0:83 = 7 ~ aS 0-834 % 41 - 0-834 0°07 40H) : 100) 10 ear -q S) Heant oy 4 eG De Pew Gar -) E Bcor Tr tKIor. 219K) +A ORI IH ne 1 ste) +6 (0K) +3 GK +4) ’ 9 = 66K? + 30K POF eer 4530 = 3,66 | too 1 = ; WO Varwance: > hee ‘ oS! se - ) D2, a Pg bs meee See cere Ace ; se | 6=0 + = O7CO) + 17CK) + DC2K) 43 La a4 “3k) + BURY + G>C2k) + PCIK SK) — fa ey= quoKr+i2u ie > (3,66) > ~ ce = 3 Woe) wii) Stand avd deviation” S-D = © = Wartance = v3-yous oc = 1845 es §) Of The probabrivt density of a randonn yariab le is given 6 cn) = SKU, gertc! 8 yf (3% : othemise find We value Of kK and probabi ities ef a random yartob (e faving this probaéritty denscty will talte ona yamre 6[W © 0:1 awd 0-2 @ greater than oo s goven £00 = Ku-w) ocne! [ 0 otherwise wefave f gx dust 9 ae . [ fodx + feo { feo dx 3 aes ; (srk) Sei oO Oo ' a d ECG = = gl Bit gf aha decd. eee ay 2 -¥ a Ci) The probability that The vaUuatHe ral touce on a value blo Of § 0-2 We have Or PLONE X20 earid wer, f Orme 208) si oO 20-2965 “3 (oe3)-Cr ey cit) greater than 0-5 +. the Boe ee That variate will take on Avalue >o0-5 « we Aave = p(x >0:5) o | a fcwd x | j 0-5 2 f fovax sy Frooax CES 1 \ & fka-wydx +0 os gees, = 1013)/21677, 6 Probasiiry nee Guuactvon of A YAandom variabl PRON 1, sing , 0 exe ty oO else wAere find the meay medtanand moae OY The AtstriBution ond aLo-fi the prob o.bility bli © ana. ie zi) Mean of the distribution 4 = if, x fovde x\ elF : . sy oO w w Wee [x fonds + {xfonds + fxsood™ oe +1 ° an ie He or (es sinn dz +0 G4 5 As ena 1 ¢-c0sH)d x ya(uy = e ra ea furl fut val (Ply 2 Ice Cooker als cosx dx a} 2 Be - X% wWSx4+_1 Binw 2 L ‘ = | > (-1 (-1) +0) a Nl2y | ' (ii) Node (6 the value of % for which FOO 1 mar now fica) - 20st Jor Scarto be max, £04.40 4 8x =,0, ree No ‘ Nov, Fares) = aie creer 2 ‘i ak) =) / 0) i AMINO 3)" @il al ” t(E)+ +. sin(E ) 12 © £'G) £0 ae Ce : thence FOU), Jarman, ot 1 Wf” eile > mode of The distwhutron ie “1 digtvi bution fin) Hedtan Of hs 15 aie median : ; 9 1a RO 13 iF a einseee i BOE Woy te eee Spee ifr TO oo ya Rene eal We Ue (iY) Between O aud Th we leave a LOZ2RZ, T/2) ali ‘h sinxd% 2 e (- t0S%>, dx =liotn= | at } 2 a foes probability Otstr6 utton — WBionomial Oistributton i) poison DiAtrvOuUtcon ° ii) Normal Aistrv6utlton © » Qusevet A vandom variable X has a discrete a dist yieution tf and only of tts Tie ! distrt6utton S geven by fei) = : e untform Histrbutton.- for x= te Qe Tooving Qa coin then 1 noe get: ‘The distyt6 utton, | given ty [x To | 1 Bernoulli's Otetri6urtton '- = ae var table % which can take two values 0 and) “ proba 6 Ulvby U6 | and Pp Stespectively v-ea Saar v4 et x “pcx =02= Vv ana poxel =p then y= '-P ae pry =!- to catled Bernoullt’s Ovscrete, distoutton and te defined by ota aa ae Pept cimipyp -: nd on sBronomial ArAtriburvon — A random vayiable y Aas a 6tono mial drotrcoutton tf it assuma ative values and tts probabttty only non- Neg t& grven ey J density function ee pins (ME pa” | ee Oday e: ’ Az 1-Pp oO , otherwise Otrtrt butron: The OlAributton v4 given y Then Hean of the bconomtal mean of The 6lonomtal (ave) ica TN vy n-¥ p Py Eee = + pctv) ES ae “Variouce’ vortonce of Bronomial dwBtrr6utcon | Bi \ vex = eexrdre le Calpe n = fae ait = py a 1 } Wo pa} : Vwawcance 1 \(o4 | =k . Deveation » 3:0 =j ‘ a 8) o Coins ave tossed Bimultomeour Find probabllity of getting at leant 5 oe a) A heads Gi) 6 Reads ° BY. Let p= tne proeanyy 0} geting & eal p> i 4 A= probabltvty of not getting ae G ly, a The probabrirty of getting HM Reads wna q throw OF 10 cotng eS ; ec, ew = a0 a7 ot) ei) Beeson of getteng at eart * fradg] Dee) = Vo bOx Zn) i 2 |- Cp tx=0) + pcxie!) + ple = + Pe 3) + pex=q)+plx =5) t+ P& =6)) SEaeyays 2S 8 ager =We + re) ( ie yi Oi Ae 10-#UMo. aa iw probability of getting at leant, 6 heads — Pigcye os = 1— pcx ze) ve IEE =0)+ ae pcx 3») tale Oe) rie “toate 265 IO. % YE OO SOO, 3 ots -: eee Tah e 1-082 5° 20. 3a — Coes pith & cAtld ves each, pect to have cy ectiney wht 2) bowie ahiutin 8) Out Of B00 famvlves Aow many would you ex Ay) boys” iy 5 grils fuatieatt) boy heptane equal prob for Go ys | owd ee sh Leb the no- of boys in each family= % 1) ond p= The aes oe each, BOY © 5 isp@) F pe oe ; Thus 200 fannlve 6 vontacning “Gacn boys r Nnte) ip af q 300 x 10 19 = 250 fami Wn = ah ce p as a(t a) P(5 givls) re : cA) ia ‘ pt) ae | Thus £00 ae tontaxning each yr 15 N rp Be ¥ DOO seep i) a 2 Plevthere cor) 3) = POI Pca) | inet aac |e eG) Or ee Thus foo families containing § em boy @ AY = pony 20 BOO 00 fe - 2 Cuil Be iy) iota es oo payee pis) ; ao Sar SOO Xt orion sats 7 Be ee ae : 2 eere ena Thus * #00 ge Nees containing atleast one boyis ne PC, Pa e goox 3! Aas faulty re — poisons Distri6utiow,— A vandom variable * (3 gard to follows & poison drotwoution «fF it @esumes only Ne meqarrye walues and its probabritty dewaty to gre by a pie) Pix=”? {a a OAR Xx 0, « Otherwise Weve, » 20. ©. a parameter 03 dtstyto ution the distrioution and jhe under thr conaitton That — a) pis very wall - mn is very (arg € @) »-Np tA pintte = Mean of the poiwon distributor” The mean The poison Acstribution te qv” by Hean= os E€cx) 0 a oe = De xpOO. 7 2 ie x=0 xX=0 =e Io | ert buLv Orr Variance! the varramce oF potxon dt. in given by A Cx} = eee - [e CxJJ” is . = v s 2 a Z, x p(n fA $p°- . $-pie Yvariancte = ¥ oeRecwrance Relation - The vecuvyvance relate / 6} porson Arstvi button tw gun by Bit = yes o | | , Picrtise e gee (x41) | 3rom © «4 © p(eth) oo) =p)” G) 3f The probability thar av tndivd Suffer & oad veactron from certain injecttO is 0-001 - Neermine The probability qnat ou OF 2000 ondtvuiduals — rt 1) Exactly 3- 2) pore Than & 2) None’ u) more Than }° i : individual suffer 6ad reactoon ; Bie p-ono; and n= 2000 rad Oh d= 2000%0°'00! using poison Algty! button | Per) = ey - e779" : vi cA? Loe c »> pa) +St ARMM lla aa aa rw = 0-1804 = ©) p(more than 27 pcv79a) © t= prea) = ,-(C pte) * pu+ pov app -% ' -2 & Bye fe + 6 cH +e £2) | 0} | 2} - =< 93233 (3) -pcnone)= poor € oe oo 0-13.53 ol pcre) ao pcre!) G) pcCmore than one) > 2t- Cpco+ po) e}- ie 40) + eS = 0544 ol a eon q Yo ranaorn vayvable fat au poison de fon guch ThAL pur= pO) Jind oneon s) piu) ia) p(x77") uP (le % 4) incomplete sumama ayotrtbutton’- oom variable x a gaid to Mave norm- gistrv6utton cf its a ty functig ¥s t i ip en oy |fere) E ' =Ch- ——— e Ze , Pittintins she ee py -a44L0, : | Eau een, | phere, = mean - + eb pana here te jae Normal dig triButvon ' dey qnenormal Area un ub aus platx STEp 1 .- perform the change of Scale — ie wh ayaepena: 2aucien, covegnomial +o the values X, and Oe SIEp 2 - case @= P(% 2X 2%.) > plZye 26%): [aaa nMBeet Lb Nine cose@- Sf 2, £0 then p(zeu)- 0:5 -ALa) ? “ j Ze i | ee ee problems — @ Zora norm mean | and 3:0 ) 3us SLE 6:19 , ue e oot aistrvbuted vartent tth 3 - Jind The probablirter »y- se yrven— mean (fA) = ana $0 ( Z= -1-y3-1 = -0- Bf 619 3) X= 6-19 =) 2 > eg@-' _ 5-33 (2) Say a 43 j Th OY BOS X ERY = ACR + ACO) PAIS a). ACI-73) +A'l-onemm = 04582 +0-24910 = 00-4492 4 ——eee RO mR a A a a a 13 Descriptive Statdstics cn ee » Contents — Pata, scence popuLatror sample - types of vawables = 44) | Aaata visuallt ation gata Scvence techniques * Theve are a vartety of tecAnrtaues That scope of data Scrvence t) Regress von techniques are used. to ouctd | a mathematical eqratron thar uses tnpul || vartaeles to predict the value of O[p varia- Such Cocatton , ole. Jor example, factors number of TOOMS tO predict the price 062 |: house ©Y regression techniques a) Hacnine learning vaethoas create Compe tttonaL models poceh UNPUN dota ¥ use the modele to determine the class Of vartab les 401 example, 10 el can be ugea"to ff nL mod Getevmaune vs ion ’ dé) There ave many OTC i ques 6e used depending on the varrable @ dota uge of clustertng algortthms § vector | machines! eke 5 ae is ee Dota Sevence riethodology: rod Gam fata scrence applicarvons wequrve Qi ¢ D0 ot Gee eS > _ Stattattcs — vollectton of dato— tome tn The +3 0% pact clot methodology’ ti Explovarory Aata Anady S'S 2 , Dako visualizatton - 2 {2 ape tatvon: & nclus (0, Jaka Manup