Assetcl

asses
Topi
c1Equi
ti
es
Equi
ti
escant
aket
hef
orm ofcommonorpr
efer
redst
ock
Commonst
ock
Mostequi
ti
est aketheform of
 commonst ock (or"
ordi
naryshar
es")thatgi
veowner ssome
degr
eeofowner shipin 
acompany.Commonst ockgrant
ssharehol
der svot
ingrightsat
AGMs–di f
ferentclassesofcommonst ockmaycar rydi
ff
erentvot
ingr i
ght
s. Shareholder
s
mayhavepre-
empt i
onright
swherebyacompanycannoti ssuesharestonewshar ehol
ders
wit
houtof
feri
ngt hem fi
rstt
oexist
ingshareholders.

‫ﺔﻓﻲ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻣﻦ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﺭﺟ‬‫ﻴﻦﺩ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻨﺢ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘﻲﺗ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬("‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬"‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺔ)ﻭ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬ ‫ﻜﻞ‬‫ﻬﻢﺷ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻌﻈﻢ‬‫ﺬﻣ‬‫ﺄﺧ‬
‫ﺗ‬
‫ﻤﻞ‬‫ﺪﺗﺤ‬‫ﻗ‬-‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟﺠ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺎﻋ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺍﺟ‬ ‫ﻳﺖﻓﻲ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻴﻦﺣ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺎﻫ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻨﺢ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺗ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻜﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴﺚﻻﻳ‬ ‫ﺔﺣ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻮﻥﺑﺤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻊ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺪﻳ‬‫ﻗ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻳﺖﻣﺨ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻮﻕﺗﺼ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺔﺣ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔﻦ‬ ‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎﺕﻣﺨ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﻓ‬
.
‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺃﻻًﻋ‬‫ﺎﻭ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﺮﺿ‬‫ﻭﻥﻋ‬‫ﺩﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻴﻦﺟ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺎﻫ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺔﺇﺻ‬ ‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻠﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬

Theunder ly
inghealthofacompanywi ll
dictatethevalueofashar e–ifthecompanyi s
profi
table,t
henshar eholdersbenefitf
rom eithercashdividendsorcapi t
alappreciati
on.If
thecompanyf arespoorly,itmaybeunabl etopayadi v i
dend.Not ethatdiv
idendsar e
arbit
raryrat
hert hanmandat ory–companymanagementmaydeci detoretai
near ningsin
thecompany( evenwher eitisprofi
tabl
e)ratherthanpaydi videndstocommon
stockholders.Divi
dendpol ici
esv ar
yradi
call
yacr ossthewor ld’slar
gestcompani es.Inthe
caseofcompanybankr uptcy ,
equit
yholdersar ethel
astinl i
net orecei
veanyliquidati
on
proceeds–t heyusuall
yr eceivenothi
ng.

‫ﺎﻣﻦ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻭﻥﺇ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻴﻦﻳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺈﻥ‬‫ﻓ‬،‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺤ‬ ‫ﺮ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻧﺖ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻛ‬‫ﺫ‬‫ﺇ‬-‫ﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺔﻗ‬ ‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻠﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻟﺼﺤ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺤ‬‫ﺳ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻻﺣﻆ‬.‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﻜﻦﻣﻦﺩ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺪﻻﺗ‬ ‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻓ‬،‫ﺎ‬ً
‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺔﺿ‬ ‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺀ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎﻥ‬‫ﺍﻛ‬‫ﺫ‬‫ﺇ‬.‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬ ‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﺓﺭ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﻭﺯ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﺎﺗ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﺘﻰﻋ‬‫ﺔ)ﺣ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺡﻓﻲ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎﻷ‬
‫ﺎﻅﺑ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺣ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭﺇ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺪﺗ‬ ‫ﻗ‬-‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺖﺇ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻌﺴ‬‫ﺎﺡﺗ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺭﻱﻋ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﻜﻞﺟ‬ ‫ﺎﺡﺑﺸ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺎﺕﺗ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻠﻒﺳ‬ ‫ﺘ‬‫ﺗﺨ‬.‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺑﻻًﻣﻦﺩ‬ ‫(ﺪ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺑﺤ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻬﻢﻻ‬‫ﻓ‬-‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻠﻰﻋ‬‫ﺮﻣﻦﻳﺤﺼﻞﻋ‬ ‫ﺁﺧ‬ ‫ﻬﻢﻫﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺈﻥﺣ‬ ‫ﻓ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻛ‬ ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺇﻼﺱ‬ ‫ﺣﺔﻓ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺎ‬.‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻢ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬
.‫ﺎ‬
ً
‫ﺌ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺓﺷ‬
ً‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻮﻥﻋ‬ ‫ﻘ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻳ‬

Pr
efer
redst
ock
Compani
essomet
imesi
ssuesecur
it
i pr
esknownas  ef
err
edst
ock 
(orpr
efer
enceshar
es)
.
 Preferr
edstockcarriesafixeddiv
idendthatmustbepai dtopreferredstockhol
dersbefore
ordinar
yshareholdersreceiveany
thing.I
trepresentsa“middl
elayer”inthecapitalst
ruct
ure
ofanor gani
zati
on( betweendebtandequi t
y).Intheeventofl
iqui
dat i
on,pref
erred
stockholder
sreceiveanyr esi
dualval
ueaheadofor dinar
yshareholders,
butaf t
er
bondholdersorbankcr editor
s.

‫ﺎ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺣ‬ ‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺤ‬.(‫ﺓ‬‫ﺯ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺃﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺓ)ﻭ‬ ‫ﺯ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺎﺳﻢ‬
‫ﺮﻑﺑ‬ ‫ﻌ‬
ُ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺎﻣ‬ً
‫ﻗ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎ‬
ً
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺃﺣ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺗﺼ‬
"‫ﺔﻭﺳﻄﻰ‬ ‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﺜﻞ"ﻃ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻪﻳ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﺇ‬.
‫ﺀ‬‫ﺃﻱﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻘﻰ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺃﻥﻳ‬‫ﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺔﻗ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻔﻀ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻓ‬‫ﺔﻳﺠﺐﺩ‬ ‫ﺘ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺛ‬
‫ﺃﻱ‬‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻔﻀ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻘﻰﺣ‬ ‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻳ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺘﺼ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺣﺔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺎ‬.(‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻮﻥﻭﺣ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﺑ‬)‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻨﻈ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎﻝ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﻜﻞﺭ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻓﻲﻫ‬
.‫ﻮﻙ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻨﻲ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭﺩ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺪﺣ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻜﻦﺑ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻭ‬،‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻫ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺔﻗ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻗ‬

Theinvestmentcharacter
isti
csofpr efer
redst ockaremor
eli
kethoseofcorporat
ebonds
thanthoseofordinaryshares.Technical
ly,theymaybe“equi
ty”i
nvest
ments,buttheyar
e
notusuall
yconsideredpartoftheequi ty
 assetclass.

‫ﻣﻦ‬.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺎﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺔﺑ‬‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻚ‬‫ﺮﻣﻦﺗ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺋ ﺺﺳ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺓﺧﺼ‬‫ﺯ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺭﻓﻲ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫ﺋﺺ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻪﺧﺼ‬ ‫ﺒ‬‫ﺗﺸ‬
.
‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺃﺻ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺌ‬‫ﺍﻣﻦﻓ‬ً
‫ﺀ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﺓﺟ‬ً
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺮﻋ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺎﻻﺗ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬،
"‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻮﻕﻣ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺍﺕ"ﺣ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﺳ‬
‫ﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻜ‬
‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﻗ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺎﺣ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

Equi
tySubcl
asses
‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻠﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺮﻋ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺌ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬

Equi
ti
esmaybesubdi vi
dedintothefol
l
owi
ngsubcl
asses:
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺮﻋ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺌ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻬﻢﺇ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻴﻢ‬‫ﻘﺴ‬‫ﻜﻦﺗ‬
‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻳ‬

Si
zeTher
eissomeev
idencet
hatt
hesi
zeofacompanyi
nfl
uencest
her
iskandr
etur
n
char acteristi
csofi t
sequi tysecuriti
es.Smal lercompaniesappeart ogener atehigherreturns,
althought hisisaccompani edbyhi ghervolatil
it
y.I
nvestor
sdi st
inguishbetween" l
argecap"
and" smal lcap"stocks.Int heUS, wherethisconcepti smostdev eloped,thereisalsoa" mi d
-cap"cat egor y.Thefiguresbel owshowt hecr i
teri
ausedbymostanal y
sts:
 
 Lar gecap: >USD10bi ll
ion
 Mi dcap: USD2- 10bi l
li
on 
 Sma llcap: <USD2bi l
li
on
‫ﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻳ‬.‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﻬ‬ ‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬ ‫ﺮﻭﻋ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣﺨ‬‫ﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﺛ‬
‫ﺆ‬‫ﺔﻳ‬ ‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﻥﺣﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻷﺔﻋ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺎﻙﺑ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻫ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
"‫ﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻭﻥﺑ‬ ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻳ‬.‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺃﻋ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻮﺏﺑ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺼﺤ‬ ‫ﺬ‬‫ﺃﻥﻫ‬‫ﺮﻏﻢﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻋ‬،‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺃﻋ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻘﻖﻋ‬ ‫ﺓﺗﺤ‬ ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﻟﺼ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﺌ‬‫ﺎﻓ‬ ً‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎﻙ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻫ‬، ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻜﻞﻛ‬‫ﻡﺑﺸ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﺮﻫ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘﻢﺗﻄ‬‫ﻴﺚﻳ‬ ‫ﺣ‬،‫ﺓ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮﻻ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬. "‫ﺓ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﻟﺼ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬
"‫"ﻭ‬ ‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺮ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
:‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻌﻈﻢ‬‫ﺎﻣ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺨ‬ ‫ﺘﻲﻳﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻡ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻮﺿﺢ‬‫ﺗ‬."‫ﺔ‬‫ﻮﺳﻄ‬ ‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬
"
Sect
or
Di
ff
erentsect
orswi
l
lrespondi
ndi
ff
erentway
stochangesi
ntheeconomi
ccy
cle.

Ut
il
it
iesandfoodret
ail
ersar
eexamplesofdefensive(noncy
cli
cal
)inv
est
ment
s–t
heyhav
e
i
nel
asticdemandandshouldper
for
m bett
erinar ecessi
on.

Bycontr
ast, 
cycl
i
calsector
s havea l
argediscr
eti
onarycomponentt
odemandandar
ethus
moreli
kelytosuff
erinadownt urn.I
nvest
orscanimpr ov
etheri
sk/r
ewar
dprof
il
eoft
hei
r
equi
typortf
oli
osbyallocat
ingbetweenweakl y
-cor
rel
atedsect
ors

.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺼ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬
‫ﺓ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺕﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻐ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺮﻕﻣﺨ‬
‫ﺔﺑﻄ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺎﻋ‬‫ﻘﻄ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺘﺠ‬‫ﻮﻑﺗﺴ‬
‫ﺳ‬

‫ﻳﺠﺐ‬
‫ﺮﻥﻭ‬
‫ﺮﻣ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻠﺐﻏ‬
‫ﻬﻢﻃ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
-(‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻏ‬
)‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺎﻋ‬‫ﻓ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺔﻫﻲ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﺘﺠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﺑ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﺍﻷﻏ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺠ‬‫ﻓﻖﻭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
.
‫ﺩ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻓﻀﻞﻓﻲﻓ‬ ‫ﺃ‬‫ﺅﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﺃﻥﻳ‬

‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺮﺿ‬‫ﺮﻋ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻬﻲ‬‫ﻟﻲﻓ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺑ‬،‫ﻠﺐ‬‫ﻠﻄ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺮﻱﻛ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺮﺗ‬
‫ﻨﺼ‬‫ﺎﻋ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺎﻋ‬
‫ﻘﻄ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺈﻥ‬‫ﻓ‬،‫ﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻴ ﺾﻣﻦﺫ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻋ‬
‫ﻬﻢﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ‬‫ﺔﺑ‬
‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﻓﻆ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬/‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻒ‬‫ﻴﻦﻣ‬‫ﻳﻦﺗﺤﺴ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻜﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳ‬.
‫ﺎﺵ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬
‫ﺣﺔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻓﻲ ﺎ‬
‫ﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻ‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺎﺕ ﺿ‬‫ﺎﻋ‬
‫ﻘﻄ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻴ ﺺﺑ‬‫ﺘﺨﺼ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

RegionRegi onal subclassesmayfocusonindi

vi
dualcountr
ies(suchastheUS)oron
regi
onal gr
oupi ngs(suchasEur opeandAsia-
Paci
fi
c).Adist
incti
onisusual
lymadebetween
developedequi tymar kets(f
orexample,
thosei
ntheUS)andt hoseofemergingeconomi
es.
Asmar ketsev olve,furt
hersubcl
assesemerge.

‫ﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻣ‬)‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻹ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘﺠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻠﻰ‬ ‫(ﻭﻋ‬
‫ﺓﺃ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮﻻ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻣ‬ )‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻥ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻹ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺮﻋ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻠﻚ‬‫ﺗ‬،‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺜﻝ‬ ‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻞ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠﻰﺳ‬ ‫ﺔ)ﻋ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﺰﺑ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺎﻳ‬‫ﺓﻣ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻋ‬.
(‫ﺩﺉ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻂ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﻭ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺁﺳ‬‫ﺎﻭ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺃ‬
.‫ﺮﻯ‬‫ﺃﺧ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺮﻋ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻓ‬‫ﺌ‬‫ﺮﻓ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﺗﻈ‬،‫ﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻊﺗﻄ‬‫ﻣ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺌ‬‫ﺎﺷ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬
‫(ﻭ‬‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮﻻ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺓﻓﻲ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻮﺟ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

Forexample,theFTSE/Russelli
ndi
cesseparateemergi
ngmar ketnati
onsint
othree
cat
egories–Adv anced,Secondary
,andFronti
er.Eachcat
egorydi
ff
er swithr
especttokey
areassuchasr egulat
oryenv
ironments,l
egalf
ramework, andmarketl
i
quidi
ty.

‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬‫ﻣ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬-‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﻟﻰﺛﻼﺙﻓ‬
‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﺌ‬‫ﺎﺷ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺩ‬FTSE/Russell
‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺆﺷ‬‫ﻘﺴﻢﻣ‬‫ﺗ‬،‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺜﻝ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻠﻰﺳ‬
‫ﻋ‬
.
‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻧﻲﻭﺳ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻃ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻨﻈ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺜﻞ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻴﺴ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺠ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻠﻖﺑ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺎﻳ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺔﻓ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﻠﻒﻛﻞﻓ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺗﺨ‬.‫ﺩ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟﺤ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻭ‬

Gr
owt
hGr
owt
hst
ocksar
ethoseofcompani
eswher
eear
ningsar
eex
pect
edt
ogr
owatan
above-aver
agerat
e.Growthstockshav
eP/Erati
oshigherthanthemarketaver
age
(assumingtheyar
eprofi
tabl
e),andl
owdiv
idendyiel
ds(profi
tsarer
einvest
edrathert
han
dist
ribut
ed).

‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻠﻚﻣﺨ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺗ‬.
‫ﻮﺳﻂ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣﻦ‬‫ﺃﻋ‬‫ﺪﻝ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺎﺑ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﺎﺣ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﺃﻥﺗ‬
‫ﻊ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺘﻲﻣﻦ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬
‫ﻮﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻢﺇﻋ‬
‫ﻳ‬)‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻔﻀ‬‫ﻨﺨ‬
‫ﺎﺡﻣ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻭﻋ‬،(
‫ﺔ‬‫ﺑﺤ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻣ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺍﺽ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻓ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻮﻕ)ﻋ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﺳﻂ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣﻦﻣ‬‫ﺃﻋ‬
P/E‫ﻧﺴﺐ‬
 )
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺯ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺑﻻًﻣﻦﺗ‬
‫ﺎﺡﺪ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺃ‬

I
nvestorsingr
owthstocksbenef
itfr
om amoment um ef
fect(
str
ongperf
ormanceinthe
pastgeneratespr
icegai
nsinthefut
ure),
whichcanhelpi
nvestor
searnbet
tert
hanaverage
retur
ns

‫ﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺎﺳﺐﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺪﻣ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺎﺿﻲﻳ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻱﻓﻲ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻷﺀ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺩ‬
)‫ﺰﺧﻢ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺛ‬‫ﺄ‬
‫ﺔﻣﻦﺗ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﻭﻥﻓﻲ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻳﺴ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻓﻀﻞﻣﻦﻣ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻠﻰﻛﺴﺐ‬‫ﻳﻦﻋ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺎﻋ‬‫ﺃﻥﺗﺴ‬‫ﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘﻲﻳ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻭ‬،(‫ﺒﻞ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

Val
ueAval
uest
ocki
sper
cei
vedt
o t
radeatadi
scountr
elat
ivet
oit
sint
ri
nsi
cval
ue.Val
ue
st
ockstendtobethoseofolder
,moreestabl
ishedcompani
es.P/
Erat
iosmaybel
owert
han
aver
age,r
efl
ect
ing 
lowexpectat
ionsoff
uturegrowth.

‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻠﻚ‬‫ﻮﻥﺗ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺃﻥﺗ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﻴﻞ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺗ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻮﻫ‬‫ﻟﺠ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻝﺑﺨﺼﻢﺑ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟﻰﻗ‬
‫ﺮﺇ‬‫ﻨﻈ‬
ُ
‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻔﻀ‬ ‫ﻨﺨ‬‫ﺎﺕﻣ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻜﺲﺗ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺎﻳ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻣ‬،‫ﻮﺳﻂ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻗﻞﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﺮﺇ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻥﻧﺴﺐ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﺪﺗ‬
‫ﻗ‬.‫ﺎ‬
ً‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺧ‬ ‫ﺮﺭﺳ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﻡﻭ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
.

Valuestocksusuallyexhi
bitstr
ongf undament al
characteri
sti
cssuchashighdivi
dend
yiel
ds.Thev al
uestyleofinvest
ingcanpr oducebet t
er-
than-aver
ageret
urns.Anumberof
studi
eshav ealsoidenti
fi
edapr emium forvaluestocks,thoughthesest
udiesdi
ff
er 
in
termsoftheir 
defi
niti
onofv al
ueandt hesizeoft hepremium.

‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﺏ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﺘﺞﻋﻦ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺃﻥﻳ‬‫ﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳ‬.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺗ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺜﻞﻋ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺔﻗ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬ ‫ﺋﺺ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺓﺧﺼ‬ً‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﺗﻈ‬
‫ﺮﻏﻢﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋ‬، ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻬﻢﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻼﺓﻋ‬
‫ﺎﻋ ﻭ‬ ً‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩﻣﻦ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺩﻋ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺣ‬.‫ﻮﺳﻂ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻀﻞﻣﻦ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺭﻋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻻﺳ‬
.‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺄ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻭﺣﺠﻢﻗﺴﻂ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻴﺚﺗ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻣﻦﺣ‬ ‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻩ‬‫ﺬ‬ ‫ﺘﻼﻑﻫ‬‫ﺍﺧ‬

Exchange-
TradedFunds(
ETFs)

‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺻ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟﺼ‬‫ﺍ‬
(ETFs)
ETFsaref undsthatt
rackaport
fol
ioofaspecifi
cindexorsector,
butareli
sted,andtr
aded,
l
ikestocksonanexchange.ETFshav emanyadv antagesf
orinvestor
sincl
udinghigh
l
iqui
dity
,lowt r
ansact
ioncost
s,anddiver
sif
icat
ion.

،‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﻢﺗ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻭ‬،‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺟ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺎﻣ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻭ‬،‫ﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﺎﻉﻣ‬‫ﻭﻗﻄ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺆﺷ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻔﻈ‬‫ﻘﺐﻣﺤ‬ ‫ﻌ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻳﻖﺗ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﺔﻫﻲ ﺻ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺻ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﺎﻓﻲﺫ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳﻦﺑ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻣﻦ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺔﺑ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﻳﻖ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻊﺻ‬ ‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺗ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺭﺻ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺜﻞ‬‫ﻣ‬
.‫ﻊ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬‫ﻔﻀ‬ ‫ﻨﺨ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻣﻼﺕ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺔﻭ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

ThoughmanyETFsinv
esti
ntradi
ti
onal
asset
s,aconsi
derabl
enumberal
soi
nvesti
n
al
ter
nati
veasset
ssuchascur
renci
esandcommoditi
es.

‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺍﻣ‬ً
‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﺍﻛ‬
ً
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻻﻥﻋ‬
‫ﺇﺃ‬،
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻ‬
‫ﺮﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺔﺗﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫ﻳﻖ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﺪﻣﻦ ﺻ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻏﻢﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻋ‬
.
‫ﻊ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻤﻼﺕﻭ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻮﻝﺑ‬
‫ﺃﺻ‬ ‫ﺎﻓﻲ‬
ً‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻳﺴ‬
Equi
tySi
ze&Val
ue

‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﺣﺠﻢﻭ‬
Thesimplestv
ersionsofCAPM relysol
elyonmar ketr
isk(bet
a)whenexpl
aini
ng
dif
fer
encesinexpectedequit
yretur
ns.Higherr
iskshouldgenerat
ehi
gherexpect
edrewar
ds.
Howev er
,empir
icalresear
chsuggestst
hathighbetastocksdonotoutper
formintheway
expect
ed.

‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻓﻲﻋ‬ ‫ﻓ‬‫ﺧﻼ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘ‬‫ﺮﺡ‬‫ﺪﺷ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫(ﻋ‬‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺗﺠ‬)‫ﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣﺨ‬‫ﻘﻂﻋ‬ ‫ﻓ‬CAPM ‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺑﺴﻂﺇﺻ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺘﺠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺙ‬‫ﺑﺤ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺗﺸ‬،
‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﻊﺫ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﻭ‬.‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺃﻋ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺪﻣ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻠﻰﻋ‬‫ﺍﻷﻋ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺃﻥﺗ‬‫ﻳﺠﺐ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻊ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻨﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻷﺀﻋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻮﻕﻓﻲ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺔﻻﺗ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺎﺕﺑ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻣﺨ‬

I
n1992, EugeneF.FamaandKennet hR.  
Frenchsuggestedathree-
fact
ormodelthat
i
ncorporat
edtwoaddi ti
onalr
iskfact
ors:si
zeandv al
ue.Theirl
ong-t
erm studi
esofUSequit
y
r
eturnssuggestedthatsmall
erfir
ms( asmeasuredbymar ketcapit
ali
zati
on)out
perf
ormed
l
argerones,whil
evaluefir
ms( asmeasuredbypr i
ce-
to-bookval
ue)outperfor
medgrowth
f
ir
ms.

‫ﻴﻦﻣﻦ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻓ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴﻦﺇﺿ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻦﻋ‬‫ﺘﻀ‬‫ﻣﻞﻳ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻼﻲ‬
‫ﺎﺛﺛ‬ً‫ﺫ‬
‫ﺟ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨﺶﻧ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻓ‬.‫ﻴﺚﺭ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺎﻭ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻦﺇﻑﻓ‬ ‫ﻮﺟ‬‫ﺮﺡﻳ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍ‬
،1992‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲﻋ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻐ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻬﻢﻃ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺭﺕﺩ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺃﺷ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﺤﺠﻢﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬:
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺨﻄ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻣﻞ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻋ‬
‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺎﺕﺫ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻗﺖ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻴﻦﺗ‬‫ﻓﻲﺣ‬، ‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻗﺖﻋ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫(ﺗ‬‫ﻗﻲ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻝ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﺎﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝﺭ‬ ‫ﻬ‬
‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﻴ‬‫)ﺎﺗﻢﻗ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻛ‬
.
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻠﻰﺷ‬‫(ﻋ‬ ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻠﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺎﺱﺑ‬‫ﻘ‬‫)ﺎﺗ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺔﻛ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

Whyshoul dthishappen?Someexper ts(includi

ngFamaandFr enchthemsel v
es)suggest
thatexcessreturnsarearati
onalr
esponset oaddi
ti
onalri
sks(f
orexampl elever
age,
volat
ili
ty,
andhighercostsofcapit
al)associatedwithval
ueand/orsmall
erfirms.By
contrast,
behavioral
explanat
ionsassociatetheexcessret
urnswithi
rrat
ionalmispri
cingof
economi cfundamentalsand/orover
reactionstoprevi
ousweakness.

‫ﺔ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺠ‬‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺓﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫(ﻥ‬‫ﻬﻢﺃ‬‫ﻔﺴ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺃ‬‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻧﺴ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻭ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻚﻓ‬‫)ﺎﻓﻲﺫ‬
‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺀﺑ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺮﺡﺑ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻘ‬‫؟ﻳ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﺪﺙﻫ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺤ‬‫ﺫ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﺑ‬‫ﺒﻄ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
(‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﻴﻒﺭ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺎﻉﺗ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻠﺐﻭ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬ ‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻠﻰﺳ‬ ‫ﺔ)ﻋ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺿ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻨﻄ‬
‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺮﻏ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺘﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺀ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻊﺳ‬‫ﺓﻣ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻔﺴ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺑﻂ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺗ‬،‫ﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻴ ﺾﻣﻦﺫ‬ ‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋ‬.‫ﺻ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺍﻷ ﻐ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭ‬/
‫ﻭﺃ‬
.
‫ﺑﻖ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻌﻒ‬‫ﻟﻀ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻌﻞﻋ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺔﻓﻲﺭ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭ‬/
‫ﺔﻭ ﺃ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬
‫ﻟﻸﺳﺲ‬ ‫ﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻨﻄ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬

 
Theseexcessret
urnsareaccompaniedwithhighervolat
il
it
y–sizeandvalueportf
oli
os
haveannuali
zedstandarddevi
ati
onsapproximatel
y5-7%higherthant
hemar ketaver
ages.
Port
fol
iosbasedonei t
hersty
lemaygot hroughsigni
fi
cantperi
odsofunderperf
ormance
rel
ativ
etotheoverallmar
ket.
 Theideat hatmult
ipleriskfact
orsgenerateex
cessretur
ns
(andtheassoci
atedconceptoffactorinvest
ment )isnowwi delyaccept
edamongst
i
nv est
mentexperts.Anal
yst
sdebat ethemer i
tsofot herpotent
ialsour
cesofexcessret
urn,
suchasmoment um andl owvolat
il
ity
.

-
5‫ﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺪﺑﺤ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﺔﺗ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﺔﺳ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺎﺕﻣ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻧﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺠﻢﻭ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻆ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﺤ‬-‫ﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻋ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺔﺑ‬ ‫ﺑ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺓﻣﺼﺤ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻩ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﻫ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻷﺀﺑ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺩ‬‫ﻌﻒ‬ ‫ﺓﻣﻦ ﺿ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﺍﺕﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻴﻦﺑ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻣﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺓﺇ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻆ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﻗ‬.‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻮﺳﻄ‬ ‫ﺘ‬‫ﻋﻦﻣ‬7٪
‫ﺍﻵﻥ‬‫ﺒﺤﺖ‬‫ﺃﺻ‬(‫ﻣﻞ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﺒﻂﺑ‬
‫ﺗ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻡ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭ‬)‫ﺓ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﺯ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺪﻋ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬ ‫ﺓﺗ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺨﻄ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻣﻞ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺃﻥﻋ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻓ‬.‫ﻜﻞ‬‫ﻮﻕﻛ‬‫ﻠﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺜﻞ‬‫ﻣ‬،‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺮﻯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺧ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺼ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺰ‬‫ﻮﻥﻣ‬ ‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻗﺶ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻳ‬.‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﺀ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻴﻦﺧ‬ ‫ﻊﺑ‬‫ﺍﺳ‬
‫ﺎﻕﻭ‬‫ﻠﻰﻧﻄ‬ ‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻣ‬
.
‫ﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻨﺨ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﺐ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺰﺧﻢﻭ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬

In2015,FamaandFr enchi nt
roducedanewf i
ve-
factormodel
whichaddedtwonew
elements–pr of
it
abil
ity(higheroperat
ingprofi
tabil
i
tyboostsr
etur
ns)andinv
estment(
high
assetgrowthdepressesr etur
ns).Howev er
,thefi
ve-fact
ormodeli
slessadmir
edthani
ts
pioneer
ingpredecessor

‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺑﺤ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
)‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺑﺤ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬-‫ﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻳﻦﺟ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻨﺼ‬‫ﺎﻑﻋ‬‫ﺃﺿ‬‫ﺍ‬ً
‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺎﺟ‬ً
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺎﺧ‬ً‫ﺫ‬
‫ﺟ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺔﻧ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻧﺴ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻭ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺖﻓ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﻗ‬،2015‫ﻡ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻓﻲﻋ‬
‫ﻮﻥﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺫﺝ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺈﻥ‬
‫ﻓ‬،‫ﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻊﺫ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﻭ‬.
(‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻠﻞ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻊﻳ‬
‫ﻔ‬‫ﺗ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻝ‬‫ﺍﻷﺻ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻧ‬
)‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫(ﻭ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺯ‬‫ﺰ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻠﻰﺗ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﺘﺸ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻪ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺎﺏﻣﻦﺳ‬‫ﺈﻋﺠ‬‫ﻣﻞﻻﻳﺤﻈﻰﺑ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﺧ‬

Pr
ivat
eEqui
ty(
PE)
/Vent
ureCapi
tal
(VC)

‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬(
PE)/‫ﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬
‫(ﺭ‬VC)
Notall
sharesar et
radedonpubl i
cmarket s.Somecompani esraiseequit
yprivat
elyfr
om
sophi
sti
catedinsti
tut
ionalinv
estor
sandaccr editedf unds.Investmentsmaybei nexisti
ng
busi
nesses(oftenaccompani edbycor
por atereorgani z
ations),
ormayr epresentseed
capi
tal(
venturecapit
al)forneworgrowingor ganizations.Thesepr i
vatei
nvestmentsare
moneti
zedif/whenacompanygoespubl ic.Thispr ocessmayt akemanyy ears.

‫ﻳﻦ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎ ﺹﻣﻦﻣﺴ‬‫ﻜﻞﺧ‬ ‫ﻬﻢﺑﺸ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﺕﺑﺠ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﻡﺑ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺗ‬.‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻣ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻬﻢﻓﻲ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻭﻝﺟ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﻢﺗ‬‫ﻻﻳ‬
‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﺎﺗ‬
‫ﻏﺎﻣ‬
ً
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔ)ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻝ‬‫ﻷﻤ‬
‫ﺍﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﺕﻓﻲ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﻗ‬.‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻳﻖﻣ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻳﻦﻭﺻ‬ ‫ﺭ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺘﻄ‬ ‫ﻴﻦﻣ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟﺠ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨﻈ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬(‫ﺭﻱ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺎﺍﻻﺳ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﺭ‬)‫ﻟﻲ‬‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺎﺍﻷ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﺜﻞﺭ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﻭﻗ‬،
‫(ﺃ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻨﻈ‬‫ﺓﺗ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺈﻋ‬‫ﺔﺑ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﻮ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺤ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻩ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﺮﻕﻫ‬ ‫ﻐ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺪﺗﺴ‬‫ﻗ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺒﺢ‬‫ﺎﺗﺼ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻋ‬/‫ﺍ‬‫ﺫ‬‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﻩ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﺪﺧﻞﻣﻦﻫ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻖ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘﻢﺗﺤ‬‫ﻳ‬.
‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻴ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
.‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺍﺕﻋ‬ ‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﺳ‬

Thedist
inct
ivenatur
eofPEinv
est
mentsmeansthatmanyexper
tsconsi
deri
ttobea
separat
eassetclass.Howev
er,
mostPEinvest
orst
akeanacti
verol
einthemanagementof
 theunderl
yingcompanies.I
tisnotobviousthatpassiv
ely-
heldPEgener
atesanyf
orm of
“
natur
al”ret
urn(orbet
a).Thesuccess(orotherwise)oftheinv
estmenti
sboundupwiththe
abi
l
iti
esoftheinvestors.

،
‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﻊﺫ‬ ‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻭ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻔﺼ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻮﻝﻣ‬‫ﺃﺻ‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺌ‬‫ﺎﻓ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺀﻳ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻣﻦ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺓﻻﺳ‬‫ﺰ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟﻄ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻨﻲ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﻔﻆ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬PE‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺿﺢ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﺲﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟ‬.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎﻓﻲﺇ‬ً‫ﺍﻧﺸ‬
‫ﻄ‬ ً
‫ﺭ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺔﺩ‬‫ﺎﺻ‬
‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺮﻱ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻌﻈﻢﻣﺴ‬ ‫ﻌﺐﻣ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺭﺑ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬
(‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﺮﺫ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻭﻏ‬ ‫ﺃ‬
)‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺒﻂﻧﺠ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻳ‬.(‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻭﺑ‬
‫ﺃ‬)"‫ﻌﻲ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟﻄ‬
‫ﺍ‬"‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺃﺷ‬‫ﻜﻞﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻱﺷ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺒﻲﻳ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻜﻞﺳ‬ ‫ﻪﺑﺸ‬‫ﺑ‬
.
‫ﻳﻦ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬

Equi
tyRet
urns&Vol
ati
l
ity

‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺗ‬‫ﻬﻢﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻋ‬
Whileequit
ymar ketshavesufferedanumberofsev ereblowsinrecentdecades( r
anging
fr
om thedotcom crashoftheear lypartofthecenturytothedecli
nesoft heglobalf
inanci
al
cri
sis)
,equi
tiessti
ll
of f
erpotenti
all
ygoodr eturnsoverthelong-t
erm.Infact,
equiti
esare
perhapsthegeneratorofabov ei
nflat
ionreturnsinthelongrunandtheirhist
orical
perfor
mancecompar esveryfavorabl
ywi t
ht hatofotherassetcl
asses. 

‫ﻡﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻭﺕﻛ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻣﻦ‬ً
‫ﺀ‬
‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺑ‬
)‫ﺓ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺧ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺓﻓﻲ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﻀ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩﻣﻦ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻬﻢﻣﻦﻋ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬ ‫ﻧﺖ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻦﻋ‬‫ﻓﻲﺣ‬
‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﺔﻋ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺓﻣﺤ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺪﺟ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻡﻋ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻬﻢﺗ‬‫ﺍﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﻻﺰﻝ‬
‫ﺗ‬، (‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺎﺿ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻧﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺮﻥﺇ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻷﻝﻣﻦ‬‫ﺍﻭ‬‫ﺀ‬‫ﺰ‬
‫ﻟﺠ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺅﻫ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺭﻥ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻭ‬، ‫ﻳﻞ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟﻄ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻯ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻠﻰﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋ‬
‫ﺘﻀﺨﻢ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺪ‬ّ
ِ
‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢﻫﻲ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﻮﻥ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﺎﺗ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬،‫ﻊ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬.‫ﻳﻞ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟﻄ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻯ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
.
‫ﺮﻯ‬‫ﺍﻷﺧ‬‫ﻮﻝ‬‫ﺍﻷﺻ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺌ‬
‫ﺀﻓ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺃ‬‫ﻊ‬‫ﺔﻣ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻐ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺑﻲ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻳﺠ‬‫ﻜﻞﺇ‬‫ﻳﺨﻲﺑﺸ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬

Counterbal
ancingt
heat
tract
ivenessofpot
enti
all
yhigherlong-t
ermretur
nsist
hefactthat
equi
tiescanalsobeaver
yr i
skyinvest
ment.Thi
sv ol
ati
li
tyexist
sbecausethehi
stor
ical
perf
ormanceofcompaniesisnotnecessar
ilyagoodpredictoroffut
ureper
for
mance.

‫ﺎﺑ‬
ً
‫ﻓ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺤ‬ً
‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺎ‬
ً‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻜ‬
‫ﺃﻥﺗ‬‫ﻜﻦ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻬﻢﻳ‬‫ﺃﺍﻷﺳ‬
‫ﺔﻥ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺔﻫﻲﺣ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺪﻃ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺫ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺔﺟ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺇﻥﻣ‬
.‫ﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻸﺀ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻟﺩ‬ً
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺍﺟ‬ً
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺆﺷ‬‫ﺓﻣ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﻀ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴﺲﺑ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻠﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻳﺨﻲ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻷﺀ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺍﺩ‬‫ﺩﻷﻥ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻮﺟ‬
‫ﻠﺐﻣ‬ ‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﻫ‬.
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬

Marketpart
ici
pantshavedi
fferentvi
ewsonacompany ’
sfutur
eprof
it
abil
ity–thi
scauses
vol
atil
i
tyasdif
ferenti
nvest
orst r
adeondiffer
entexpectati
ons.Vol
ati
l
ityalsot
akesaccount
ofotherf
actor
s,suchasunder l
yingmacroeconomicrisksthatmani
festthemsel
vesinthe
ear
ningsandcashf l
owsoffirmsi nt
hateconomy .

‫ﻴﺚ‬‫ﺎﺕﺣ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺒﺐﺗ‬‫ﺍﻳﺴ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﻭﻫ‬-‫ﺔ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻠﺸ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺑﺤ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻝ‬‫ﺔﺣ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺮﻣﺨ‬ ‫ﺎﺕﻧﻈ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻮﻕﻭﺟ‬ ‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻦﻓﻲ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﺜﻞﻣﺨ‬
‫ﻣ‬،‫ﺮﻯ‬‫ﺃﺧ‬‫ﻣﻞ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺭﻋ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺍﻻﻋ‬
‫ﺎﻓﻲ‬ً‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻀ‬ ‫ﺃ‬‫ﻠﺐ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺬ‬
‫ﺄﺧ‬‫ﻳ‬.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻣﺨ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻠﻰﺗ‬‫ﺀﻋ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻮﻥﺑ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻭﻥﻣﺨ‬ ‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻭﻝﻣﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻳ‬
.‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﺎﺕﻓﻲﺫ‬‫ﻛ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻠﺸ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺡﻭ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬ ‫ﻠﻰﻓﻲ‬‫ﺘﺠ‬‫ﺘﻲﺗ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺼ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﺍﻻ‬
Equi
tyRi
skPr
emi
um (
ERP)

‫ﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻼﺓﻣﺨ‬
‫(ﻋ ﻭ‬
ERP)
Becauseequi tymar ket
sar ev ol
ati
le,
invest
orswi l
ldemandar i
skpremium fori
nvest
ingin
thi
sassetcl ass.Thispremium measur esthei ncr
ementalr
eturnt
hatinvestor
srequi
refor
holdingequiti
esratherthanr i
sk-fr
eesecurit
iessuchastreasur
ybil
ls/bonds.Theri
sk
premi um i
simpor t
antasi tisthekeydet er
minantofthecostofcapit
al,i
tdeter
mines
currentval
uations,anditdrivesfutur
eexpect edretur
ns.

‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﻴﺲﻫ‬ ‫ﻘ‬‫ﻳ‬.
‫ﻩ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﻮﻝﻫ‬‫ﺍﻷﺻ‬ ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﺌ‬‫ﺭﻓﻲﻓ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟﻼﺳ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻼﺓﻣﺨ‬
‫ﻭﻥﻋ ﻭ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﺐ‬‫ﻴﻄ‬‫ﺳ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻬﻢﻣ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺃﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻥ‬ً
‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻈ‬
‫ﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺮﻣ‬ ‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﻭ‬‫ﻣﺍﻷ‬
‫ﺑﻻً ﻦ‬‫ﻬﻢﺪ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻪ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺬﻱﻳﻄ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻓﻲ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻹﺿ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻘﺴﻂ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻭﻫﻲﺗﺤ‬،‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﺔﺭ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻴﺴﻲ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﻷﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬‫ﺔﻧ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﺮﻣ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻤﺨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻼﺓ‬
‫ﻋ ﻭ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺰ‬‫ﻟﺨ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﺳ‬/‫ﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺫ‬‫ﺃ‬
.‫ﺒﻞ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻓﻲ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﺩﻱﺇ‬‫ﺆ‬‫ﺗ‬
‫ﻭ‬، ‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬

Thestandardappr oachtoest i
matingequityri
skpr emi umsinvolv
est heuseofhistor
ical
ret
urns,wit
hthedi ffer
enceinannualizedreturnsonst ocksandbi l
ls/bondsoveralongti
me
peri
odcompr isi
ngt heexpectedriskpremium inthef uture.Si
nce1900, theERPintheUS
hasbeenest i
mat edat5.5%r el
ativetoshort-
term bil
l
sand4. 3%relati
vetogovernment
bonds.Simil
arfiguresforgl
obal equit
ymar ketsare4. 2%and3. 2%r especti
vel
y.(
Source:
Credi
tSuisse)

‫ﺮﻕﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﻓ‬ ‫ﻮ‬

‫ﻊﻭﺟ‬ ‫ﻣ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻳﺨ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻡ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺨ‬‫ﺍﺳ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻘ‬‫ﺮﺣ‬ ‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﺎﻁﻣﺨ‬ ‫ﻗﺴ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﺞ‬ ‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻤﻦ‬‫ﺘﻀ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻤﺨ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻼﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻞﻋ ﻭ‬‫ﺘﻲﺗﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔﻭ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺔﻃ‬ ‫ﻴ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﺓﺯ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺪﻯﻓ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣ‬‫ﺍﺕﻋ‬ ‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬/‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻬﻢﻭ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬ ‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺔﻋ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮ‬ ‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
٪
5.5‫ﺔ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨﺴ‬‫ﺓﺑ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺤ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﻮﻻ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴﻂﻣ‬ ‫ﻣﺞﺗﺨﻄ‬ ‫ﺎ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺭﺑ‬ّ
ِ
‫ﺪ‬ُ،
‫ﻗ‬ 1900‫ﻡ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺬﻋ‬ ‫ﻨ‬
‫ﻣ‬.‫ﺒﻞ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺍﻷﺳ‬‫ﺍﻕ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺔﻷﺳ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺛ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻡﻣ‬ ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺑ‬٪4.3‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞﻭ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺍﺕﻗﺼ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻨﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺑ‬
:CreditSuisse)‫ﺭ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻤﺼ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬).
‫ﻟﻲ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻋ‬٪3.2‫ﻭ‬٪ 4.2‫ﻫﻲ‬

For
ecast
ingERP

‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴﻂﻣ‬
‫ﻊﺗﺨﻄ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫(ﺗ‬
ERP)
AlthoughmanyERPfor
ecastsextr
apol
atefr
om hi
stor
icv
alues,manyanaly
stspref
er
forecast
sbasedoncur
rentmarketl
evel
s.Cal
cul
ati
onsusuall
yspl
itequi
tyret
urnsi
nto
growthandincomecomponents.

‫ﻔﻀﻞ‬‫ﻳ‬،‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻳﺨ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮﺉﻣﻦ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫(ﺗﺴ‬ERP)‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴﻂﻣ‬‫ﺍﺕﺗﺨﻄ‬
‫ﺆ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺪﻣﻦﺗ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺃﻥ‬‫ﺮﻏﻢﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺍﺕﺣ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺎﺕﻋ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻟﺤﺴ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻘﺴﻢ‬‫ﺎﺗ‬
‫ﺓﻣ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻋ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻠﻰﻣﺴ‬‫ﺀﻋ‬
ً
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻨ‬
‫ﺎﺕﺑ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻣﻦ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
.
‫ﺪﺧﻞ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻮﻭ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟﻰﻣ‬‫ﺇ‬

Forexample,
givenaconstantP/Erati
o, t
hecombi nat
ionofdi
v i
dendyi
eld(DY)anddiv
idend
growth(
g)generatesbasi
c"real
"retur
ns( incomepluscapi
tal
).Addi
nginfl
ati
ongivest
he
nominalr
etur
n. Analy
stscanforecastfutureval
uesandretur
nsusingobservedval
uesof
di
vi
dendy
iel
dandf
orecastv
aluesf
orgr
owt
h.

‫ﺪ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫(ﻳ‬
g)‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﻮ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫(ﻭ‬DY)‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺪﺗ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴﻦﻋ‬‫ﻊﺑ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟﺠ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺈﻥ‬‫ﻓ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺛ‬P/E‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺒ‬‫ﻨﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
ً
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻧﻈ‬،‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺜﻝ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻞ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻠﻰﺳ‬ ‫ﻋ‬
‫ﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳ‬.‫ﻤﻲ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻌﻄﻲ‬‫ﺘﻀﺨﻢﻳ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺇﺿ‬.(‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻤﻝ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﺱ‬‫ﻟﻰﺭ‬
‫ﺔﺇ‬‫ﻓ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺎﻹﺿ‬‫ﺪﺧﻞﺑ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
)‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﺃﺳ‬"‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺪ"ﺣ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻋ‬
.‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻢ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﺡﻭ‬‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺮﺻ‬ ‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻴﻢ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻡ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺨ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﺔﺑ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺋ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻢﻭ‬ ‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻊ‬
‫ﻗ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺗ‬

Theimpl
iedERPcanbecal cul
atedusi
ngsomef or
m ofdiv
idenddi
scountmodel(DDM).
Alt
houghdet
ailsdi
ffer,al
lDDMsassumet hatt
hepresentval
ueofashareisequalt
othe
di
scount
edfuturevalueofallf
uturedi
vi
dends.

‫ﺘﻼﻑ‬‫ﺍﺧ‬‫ﺮﻏﻢﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬
‫(ﻋ‬DDM) .‫ﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﺫﺝﺧﺼﻢ‬ ‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺎﻝﻧ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﺃﺷ‬‫ﻜﻞﻣﻦ‬‫ﻡﺷ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺘﺨ‬‫ﺎﺳ‬
‫ﻨﻲﺑ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟﻀ‬‫ﺍ‬
ERP‫ﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻜﻦﺣﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻊ‬
‫ﻴ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟﺠ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻣ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤﺨﺼ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬﻢﺗﺴ‬‫ﻠﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻥ‬D
‫ ﺃ‬DMs‫ﻊ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺮ ﺽﺟ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺗ‬،‫ﻴﻞ‬‫ﺎﺻ‬‫ﻔ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
.
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻬﻢ‬‫ﺳ‬

ThemostpopularDDM model ,theGordongrowthmodel ,assumesthatthecur

rentval
ueof
ashareisexpl
ainedbyt hecurrentdiv
idend,amarketdi
scountr at
e(r)
,andconstant
di
videndgrowt
h( g).Ithasthefoll
owingformula:
‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﻣﻦﺧﻼﻝ‬‫ﺮﻫ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻔﺴ‬ ‫ﺘﻢﺗ‬‫ﻬﻢﻳ‬
‫ﻠﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺔ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻥ‬،
‫ﻭﻥﺃ‬ ‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﻮﺟ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﺫﺝﻧ‬ ‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻧ‬،‫ﺎ‬
ً‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺮﺷ‬ ‫ﺜ‬
‫ﻛ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬DDM ‫ﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺮ ﺽﻧ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻔ‬‫ﻳ‬
:‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻟﺼ‬‫ﺍ‬‫(ﺎ‬
‫ﻬ‬
‫ﻟ‬g) .‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻧ‬‫ﻭ‬،(
r)‫ﻮﻕ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻝﺧﺼﻢ‬ ‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﻭ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬

P=D/r-
g
Rear
rangi
ng‫ﻴﺐ‬
‫ﺗ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻋ‬
r=D/
P+g

Divi
dend/
pri
ceissi
mpl
yt hedivi
dendyi
eld(
DY),sor=DY+g.Thedi
scountrat
ercanbe
decomposedint
other
isklessgover
nmentbondyi
eld(
y)+t
heequi
tyri
skpremium (
ERP)
.

‫ﻟﺨﺼﻢ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻝ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻴﻞﻣ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻜﻦﺗﺤ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻳ‬r=DY+g.‫ﻟﻚ‬‫ﺬ‬‫ﻟ‬،
(DY)‫ﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺪﺗ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﺔﻋ‬
‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﺒﺴ‬‫ﻮﺑ‬‫ﺮﻫ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬/‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺯ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺗ‬
(
ERP)
.‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻜ‬‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮﻕ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺮﺣ‬‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻼﺓﻣﺨ‬
‫(ﻋ ﻭ‬y
)+‫ﺮ‬ ‫ﺎﻃ‬
‫ﻭﻥﻣﺨ‬ ‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺔﺑ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻜ‬
‫ﻟﺤ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟﺴ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪ‬
‫ﺋ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻟﻰﻋ‬‫ﺇ‬
r

DY+g=y+ERP
ERP=DY+g_y

For
ecast
ingERP:
Issues‫ﻜﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺸ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
Thesimpl i
cit
yofthi
smet hodologyisdeceptiv
e.Ther eisplentyofdisagr
eementar ound
speci
f i
ccalcul
ati
ons,par
ticul
arlyasregardsvaluati
onoft helong-ter
m growthrate.
 
Analystsdi
fferastowhethertousedi vi
denddat a,earni
ngsdat a,orGDPgr owthrates.I
fthe
deri
vedERPi ssigni
fi
cantl
ydifferentf
rom hist
oricalaverages,thi
scouldindicat
e:

‫ﺪﻝ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﻴﻢﻣ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻠﻖﺑ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎﻳ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺎﻓ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻻﺳ‬، ‫ﺓ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺎﺕﻣﺤ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻮﻝﺣﺴ‬‫ﻟﺨﻼﻑﺣ‬ ‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻴ‬
‫ﺜ‬‫ﻜ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﻙ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻫ‬.‫ﺔ‬‫ﺩﻋ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺔﺧ‬ ‫ﻴ‬‫ﻬﺠ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻩ‬
‫ﺬ‬‫ﺔﻫ‬ ‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﺇﻥﺑﺴ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﻌ‬
‫ﻭﻣ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻭﺑ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺑ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺍﻷ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺯ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺎﺕﺗ‬
‫ﻧ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻡﺑ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺪ‬‫ﺘﺨ‬
‫ﺎﺳ‬‫ﻠﻖﺑ‬
‫ﻌ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﺎﻳ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻮﻥﻓ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻳﺨ‬.‫ﻳﻞ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻟﻄ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺪﻯ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻠﻰ‬‫ﻮﻋ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻮﺳﻄ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮﻋﻦ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﻜﻞﻛ‬‫ﺎﺑﺸ‬ً
‫ﻔ‬‫ﻠ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﺘﻖﻣﺨ‬‫ﻤﺸ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴﻂﻣ‬‫ﺎﻥﺗﺨﻄ‬‫ﺍﻛ‬
‫ﺫ‬‫ﺇ‬.‫ﻟﻲ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻹﻤ‬
‫ﺍﺟ‬ ‫ﻠﻲ‬‫ﻤﺤ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺗﺞ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻻﺕﻧ‬
:‫ﻟﻰ‬‫ﻟﻚﺇ‬‫ﺮﺫ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﺪﻳﺸ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻓ‬،‫ﺔ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻳﺨ‬‫ﺭ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
 
Anunder-oroverval
uedmarket,
and/or
Along-
term changeini
nvest
ors’r
iskper
cept
ions
‫ﻭ‬/
‫ﻭ ﺃ‬،
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻎﻓ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺒ‬‫ﻭﻣ‬
‫ﺃ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻗﻞﻣﻦﻗ‬
‫ﺄ‬‫ﺔﺑ‬
‫ﻣ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﻮﻕﻣ‬
‫ﺳ‬

‫ﺮ‬
‫ﺎﻃ‬‫ﻤﺨ‬
‫ﻠ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬
‫ﺘ‬‫ﻤﺴ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺭ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺪﻯﻓﻲﺗﺼ‬
‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﻳﻞ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﺮﻃ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻐ‬‫ﺗ‬

Analt
ernati
veistobaseERPf orecast
saroundsurveydat
a.ThesesurveysaggregateERP
est
imatesfrom expert
ssuchasacademi cs,i
nvest
ors,
orcorpor
atefi
nanceprofessionals.
However,t
hequal i
tyofresponseswi l
lvar
y,andmeasurementstypi
cal
lyexhi
bithighlevels
ofvol
ati
li
ty.

‫ﻴﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺕﺗﺨﻄ‬‫ﺮ‬
‫ﻳ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﻘ‬
‫ﺎﺕﺗ‬
‫ﺘﻄﻼﻋ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﻩ‬‫ﺬ‬
‫ﻊﻫ‬ ‫ﻤ‬‫ﺗﺠ‬.
‫ﻤﺴﺢ‬ ‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻧ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻮﻝﺑ‬‫ﺎﺕﺣ‬‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻴﻂﻣ‬‫ﺎﺕﺗﺨﻄ‬‫ﻌ‬‫ﻗ‬
‫ﻮ‬‫ﺀﺗ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻨ‬‫ﻮﺑ‬
‫ﻳﻞﻫ‬‫ﺪ‬‫ﺒ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬
،‫ﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻊﺫ‬‫ﻣ‬‫ﻭ‬.
‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﻟﺸ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻳﻞ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻴﻦﻓﻲﺗ‬ ‫ﺘﺨﺼﺼ‬ ‫ﻤ‬
‫ﻟ‬‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻳﻦ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﺜ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﻤﺴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻭ‬‫ﺃ‬‫ﻴﻦ‬‫ﻴ‬
‫ﻤ‬ ‫ﻳ‬
‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬‫ﻛ‬
‫ﺍﻷ‬‫ﺜﻞ‬‫ﺀﻣ‬‫ﺍ‬
‫ﺮ‬‫ﺒ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻣﻦﺧ‬ ‫ﺆﺳﺴ‬‫ﻤ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﺭ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﻣ‬
.
‫ﻠﺐ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﺘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺔﻣﻦ‬‫ﻴ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺎﺕﻋ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﻮ‬‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺎﺕﻣﺴ‬ ‫ﺎﺳ‬
‫ﻴ‬‫ﻘ‬‫ﻟ‬
‫ﺍ‬‫ﺮ‬‫ﻬ‬
‫ﺗﻈ‬ُ‫ﺎ‬
‫ﺓﻣ‬ ‫ﺩ‬‫ﺎ‬
‫ﻭﻋ‬،‫ﺎﺕ‬‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎ‬‫ﺘﺠ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳ‬‫ﺓ‬‫ﺩ‬‫ﻮ‬
‫ﻠﻒﺟ‬ ‫ﺘ‬
‫ﺘﺨ‬‫ﺳ‬