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Demand Analysis:
Every want supported by the willingness and ability to buy constitutes demand for a particular product
or service
A product or service is said to have demand when three conditions are satisfied
Desire on the part of the buyer to buy
Willingness to pay for it
Ability to pay the specified price for it
Demand Function:
Demand function is a function which describes a relationship between one variable and its determinants
Law of Demand:
The Law of demand states that “ Other things remaining the same, the amount of quantity demanded
rises with every fall in the price and vice versa
Change in Demand:
The increase or decrease in demand due to change in the factors is called change in demand. It
leads to a shift in the demand curve to right or to the left
Increase in demand
Decrease in demand
Extension and contraction in demand
Elasticity of Demand :
It is defined as the rate of responsiveness in the demand of a commodity for a given
change in price
Measurement of Elasticity :
The elasticity is measured in the following ways
The extent of increase in the quantity demanded is greater than the extent of fall in price.
e) Unity Elasticity :
The elasticity in demand is said to be unity when the change in demand is equal to the change in
price .The quantity demanded is equal to the extent of fall in the price i.e. OP to OP 1 is equal to
OQ to OQ1
(a) Price Elasticity of Demand:
Price elasticity of demand refers to the quantity demanded of a commodity in response to a given
change in price of the product
Edi = = ( Q2-Q1)/ Q1
(P2-P1)/P1
Q1 is the quantity demanded before change
Q2 is the quantity demanded after change
I1 is the price before change
I2 is the price after change
Numerical Problems :
1. Determine the price elasticity of demand given that the quantity demanded for the product
is 1000 units at a price of Rs 100. The price decline to Rs 90 and the quantity demanded is Rs
1500
Let us define the variables here
Q 1= 1000 units, P1 =100 rs
Q2 = 1500 units, P2 = 90 rs
Edp =( Q2-Q1)/ Q1 = (1500-1000)/1000 = -5
(P2-P1)/P1 (90-100)/100
Since Edp = -5, it means that for every 10 % change in the price, there is 50% change in demand.
Here numerical value of elasticity is more than 1 , the demand is said to be elastic (e> 1)
2. Determine the price elasticity of demand given that the quantity demanded for a product is 1000
units at a price of Rs 100, the price decline to Rs 70 and the quantity demanded increases to 1100
units
Q2 = 1100 units, P2 = Rs 70
Since Edp = -0.33, for every 10 % fall in price, there is 3.3% increase in demand
Numerical value of elasticity < 1, the demand is Inelastic. The percentage change in quantity demanded
is less than the percentage change in the price
3. Determine the price elasticity of demand given that the quantity demanded for a product is 1000
units at a price of Rs 100, the price decline to Rs 50 and the quantity demanded increases to 1500
units
Q2 = 1500 units, P2 = Rs 50
Since Edp = -1, it means for every 10% change in the price, there is 10 % change in the quantity
demanded,
Since the numerical value is equal to 1, the demand is said to be unity elasticity. In other words, the
percentage of increases in quantity demanded is equal to the percentage of decrease in price.
Income elasticity of demand refers to the quantity demanded of a commodity in response to a given
change in income of the consumer
Edi = = ( Q2-Q1)/ Q1
(I2-I1)/I1
Q1 is the quantity demanded before change
Q2 is the quantity demanded after change
I1 is the income before change
I2 is the income after change
5. Determine the income elasticity of demand given that the quantity demanded for product is
1000 units at daily income Rs 100. The income decline to Rs 80 and the quantity demanded to
700 units
Edi = 1.5, for every 10 5 fall in income, there is 15 % decrease in demand. Since the numerical value of
elasticity is more than one, the demand is relatively elastic.
In other words, the % change in quantity demanded is more than the % change in income
Cross elasticity of demand refers to the quantity demanded of a product in response to a change in the
price of a related good which may be substitute or complement
Edc= = ( Q2-Q1)/ Q1
(P2Y-P1Y)/P1Y
Problem : Determine the cross elasticity of demand ,given that the quantity demanded for Samsung
mobiles is 1000 units, if the price of One plus mobile is Rs 5000. The quantity demanded for Samsung
mobiles is 1200 units if the price of One plus mobile is Rs 7000
Edc = ( Q2-Q1)/ Q1
(P2Y-P1Y)/P1Y
= (1200-1000)/1000
(7000-5000)/5000
= 0.5
Since Edc = 0.5. it means that for 10 % increase in price of One plus mobile, there is 5% increase in the
quantity demanded of Samsung mobiles
Since the numerical value is less than one (e<1), it is relatively inelastic
(d ) Advertising Elasticity:
Advertising Elasticity = Proportionate change in quantity demanded for product X/ Proportionate change
in Advertising costs
Eda = = ( Q2-Q1)/ Q1
(A2-A1)/A1
Prob: Determine the advertising elasticity of demand given that the quantity demanded for product
M is 1,00,000 units per day at a monthly advertising budget of Rs 10,000, the monthly advertising
budget is slashed to Rs 5000, the quantity demanded will fall down to 30,000 units per day
Since Eda = 1.4, it means that foe a 10 % change in the advertising budget, there is 14% change in
demand.
Here numerical value of elasticity is more than 1 , the demand is said to be elastic (e> 1)
a) Nature of product: Based on their nature, the products and services are classified into
necessities, comforts and luxuries. The meaning and definition of these necessaries, luxuries and
comforts change from person to person, time to time and place to place
b) Time frame: The more the time available for the customer, the demand for a particular product
may be elastic and vice versa Ex: Vegetables
c) Degree of postponement: Where the product consumption can be postponed, the product is
said to have elastic demand and where it cannot be postponed it is said to be inelastic demand.
The consumption of necessaries cannot be postponed and hence they have inelastic demand
d) Number of alternative uses: If the number of alternative uses is more, the demand is said to be
highly inelastic. Take the case of power or electricity; it is used for a number of alternatives uses
as in industries, offices, trains, households and so on
e) Tastes and preferences of the consumer: When the customer is particular about his taste and
preferences, the product is said to be inelastic. For the customer who is particular to certain
brands such as Colgate, Tata Tea, and Annapurna Atta and so on, price increases, do not matter
f) Availability of close substitutes: When there are a good number of close substitutes, the
demand is said to be elastic. If Pepsi and coke are equally good for me, if there is increase in
price of Pepsi, I may tend to switch to coke
g) In case of complementary or joint goods: In case of complimentary or joint goods having joint
demand, the elasticity is comparatively low
h) Level of prices: If the price is very expensive ( such as diamonds) or very cheap (salt) then the
product is likely to have an inelastic demand. The demand of the relatively poor people is more
sensitive to price changes. The rich may not bother about the price changes
j) Expectations of prices: Where people expect a fall in the price, the demand for the product is
likely to be inelastic
k) Durability of the product: When the product is durable in case of consumer durables such as TV,
the demand is elastic. In the case of perishable goods such as milk, the demand is inelastic
l) Government policy: Where the government policy is liberal, the product is likely to have elastic
demand and vice versa. Government can raise tax collections with a little reduction in the tax
rates
At all points between P1 and S, the elasticity is greater than zero but less than unity, at all points
between P1 and D, the elasticity is greater than unity but less than infinity. At point s , elasticity is equal
to infinity
0≥e≤∞
The elasticity at a single point on the demand curve is called point elasticity
∆Q
Q
Point Ep =
∆P
P
With the help of differential calculus
Edp = dQ/dP*.P/Q
dP/dQ is first order derivative of demand equation and P/Q is the ratio of price to quantity
Elasticity at point R is the ratio of lower segment RD1 to the upper segment RD = RD1/RD
Arc Elasticity:
Arc elasticity measures the average responsiveness to price change over a finite stretch on the demand
curve. From the above figure, where AB refers to the stretch on the demand curve DD, it is not clear
whether point A or point B should be considered to determine elasticity.
Ep=
∆ Q P 100
. =
∆P Q 3 ( )
(
3
100
) = o.2
Average = 0.5+0.2/2=0.35
Types of forecasts
Forecasting level
Degree of orientation
Nature of goods
Degree of competition
1. Survey Method :
a) Survey of Buyers Intentions:
The survey of buyers can be conducted either by covering the whole population or by
selecting a sample group. If the company wishes to find the opinion of all the buyers,
the method is called census method or total enumeration method. On the other hand,
the firm can select a group, this method is called sample method.
This method is advantageous when the product is new on the market for which
no data previously exists. When the consumers are stick to their opinions
The method has certain disadvantages.
Surveys may be expensive. Sample size and timing of survey. Inconsistent
buying behavior
b) Sales Force Opinions:
Another source of getting reliable information about the demand forecasting. The sales
people are those who are in constant touch with the main and large buyers of a
particular market. The data collected forms another valid source of reliable information
This method is appropriate when sales persons are likely to be most knowledge able
sources of information
2. Statistical Methods:
a) Trend Projection method:
These are generally based on analysis of past sales patterns. There are five main techniques in this
method
Certain statistical formulae are used here to find the trend line which best fits the available data. The
trend line is the basis to extrapolate the line for future demand. The estimating linear trend equation of
sales
S = x + y(T)
Where x & y have been calculated from past data S is sales and T is the year number for which the data
is made
To find the values of X & y, the following normal equations have to be solved
∑ S=Nx +∑ T
N= No of years data
Problem:
∑ S=Nx +∑ T
437=5x+25y
2265=25x+165y
One major requirement for this technique is that the product should have actively been traded in the
market for quite some time. Given significantly large data, the cause and effect relationship can be
discovered through quantitative analysis.
Trend (T) is also called long term trend ,is the result of basis developments in the population, capital
formation and technology. These developments relate to over a period of long time say 5 to 10 years
Cyclic Trend(C) is seen in the wave like movement of sales. These could be related to the business cycles
in the economy such as inflation or recession
Seasonal Trend(S) refers to a consistent pattern of sales movements within the year. More goods are
sold during the festival seasons
Erratic Trend (E): results from the sporadic occurrence of strikes, riots and so on. These erratic
components can even damage the impact of more systematic components Classical time series analysis
involves procedure for decomposing the original sales series (Y) into components T,C,S,E while one
model states that these components interact linearly Y= T+C+S+E
Another model states that Y is the product of all these components Y=TxCxSxE
This method considers that the average of past events determines the future events. This method is
easy to compute. One major advantage with this method
Is that the old data can be dispensed with, once the averages are computed
Ex : Compute 3 day moving average from the following daily sales data
S4 = 40+44+48/3 = 44
S5 = 44+48+45/3 = 45.7
(v)Exponential Smoothing:
This is a more popular technique used for short run forecasts .This method proves more realistic when
the data is consistent all through the year, unaffected by wide seasonal fluctuations.
c= smoothing constant
‘c ‘ varies between 0 & 1
Let us take four period average as the initial forecast year 5 while smoothing constant (c=0.1)
S5=(S1+S2+S3+S4)/4
= ( 5.0+5.6+6.7+5.8)/4
= 5.775
(0.1)(6.9)+(1-0.1)(5.775)
=5.887
S7=cSt+(1-c)Smt
=0.1(5.1)+(1-0.1)5.8875
=0.51+0.9(5.8875)
=5.808
b)Barometric Techniques:
Under barometric techniques, one set of data is used to predict another set. In other words, to forecast
demand for a product or service, use some relevant indicator (barometer) of future demand
To assess the demand for services in India and abroad, we see the percentage of population in each
occupation. In US, 78% of labor force is employed in services and 15% in manufacturing. In India
according to 1991 census, 21% of work force is engaged in services, 13% in manufacturing and 67% in
agriculture
In this method , all variables are simultaneously considered with the conviction that every variable
influences the other in an economic environment. In other words, it is a system of ‘n’ equations with ‘n’
unknowns. It can be solved the moment the model is specified because it covers all the unknown
variables, it is also called complete systems approach to demand forecasting
Correlation and regression methods are statistical techniques. Correlation describes the
degree of association between two variables such as sales and advertisement expenditure
when the two variables tend to change together, then they are correlated .The extent to
which they are correlated is measured by correlation coefficient. It ranges between +1 & -1
In regression analysis, an equation is estimated which best fits in the sets of observation of
dependant variables and independent variables
3.Other Methods:
a) Expert Opinion:
Well informed persons are called experts. Experts constitute yet another source of
information. An expert is good at forecasting and analyzing the future trends in a given
product or service at a given level of technology.
When there are different points of view among different experts, consensus can be
arrived through an objective analysis. Sorting out the differences in the estimates in this
way is called Delphi Technique
The main advantage of this method is results of this method would be more reliable as
the expert is unbiased, has no direct commercial involvement in its primary activities
b) Test Marketing:
It is likely that opinions given by buyers, salesman or other experts may be at times,
misleading. This is the reason why most of the manufacturers favor to test their product
or service in a limited market as test runs before they launch their products nationwide.
The primary objective here is to know whether the customer will accept the product in
the present form or not. Ex. Movie making
The customer psychology is more focused in this method and the product and services
are more customer acceptance
The main disadvantage of this method that it is not always easy to select a
representative audience or market
c) Controlled Experiments:
Controlled experiments refer to such exercise where some of major determinants of
demand are manipulated to suit to the customers with different tastes and preferences,
income groups and such others. It is further assumed that all other factors remain the
same. In this method, the product is introduced with different packages in different
markets or same markets to assess which combination appeals to the customer most.
This method is used to gauge the effect of a change in some demand determinant like
price, advertisement, and packaging.
d) Judgmental Approach:
When none of the above methods are directly related to the given product or service,
the management has no alternative other than using its own judgment. This approach is
implemented when the historical data for significantly long period is not available.
Turning points in terms of policies or procedures or factors cannot be precisely
determined. Sales fluctuations are wide and significant.
SUPPLY
Supply refers to the quantity of a commodity offered for sale at a given price, in a given
price, in a given market, at given time.
Determinants of Supply:
Price of a product
Cost of production
Natural conditions
Transportation conditions
Taxation policies
Production techniques
Factor prices and their availability
Price of related goods
Industry structure
Price of a product: An increase in the price of a product increases its supply and vice versa while the
other factors remain the same. Producers increase the supply of the product at higher prices due to the
expectation of receiving profits
Cost of Production: It is the cost incurred on the manufacturing of goods that are to be offered to
customers. Cost of production and supply are inversely proportional to each other. This implies when
the cost of manufacturing is more than their market place
Natural conditions: The supply of certain products is directly influenced by conditions for instance, the
supply of agricultural products increases when the monsoon comes well on time. Ex: Kharif & Rabi crops
Transportation conditions: Better transport facilities result in an increase in the supply of goods.
Transport is always a constraint to the supply of goods. This is because goods are not available on time
due to poor transport facilities
Taxation policies: Government tax policies also act as a regulating force in supply. If the rates of taxes
levied on goods are high, the supply will decrease and vice versa
Production techniques: The supply of goods also depends on the type of techniques used for
production. Outdated techniques results in low production which further decreases the supply of goods
Factor prices and their availability: The production of goods is dependent on the factors of production
such as raw materials, machines and equipment and labor.
Price of related goods: The prices of substitutes and complementary goods also influence the supply of a
product to a large extent. Ex: If the price of tea increases, farmers would tend to grow more tea than
coffee. Thus, the supply of coffee decreases.
Industry structures: The supply of goods is also dependent on the structure of the industry in which a
firm is operating. If there is monopoly in the industry, the manufactures may restrict the supply of goods
with an aim to raise the prices of goods and increases profits.
Supply Function:
The law of supply expresses the nature of relationship between quantity supplied and price of a product.
Qs = f ( Pg,Pr,Pf,T,Tp)
Where Qs = supply
T =Technology
Tp = time period
Supply schedule:
It can be defined as a tabular representation of the law of supply. It represents the quantities of a
product supplied by a supplier at different prices and time periods, keeping all other factors constant.
Supply curve:
The graphical representation of supply schedule is called supply curve. Price is representated on Y- axis
and quantity demanded on X- axis