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Scss Out, Tot
Scss Out, Tot
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/ 21 (/welog/2014/11/21/) / C Out, TOT.TO In
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C Out, TOT.TO In (/welog/2014/11/21/scss-
out-tot-in/)
Written Jin Won Choi (/welog/authors/admin/) on Nov. 21, 2014 (2014-11-21T20:39:03) in Premium
Portfolio Updates (/welog/categories/premium-portfolio-updates/).
Last update on Nov. 21, 2014 (2014-11-21T19:40:03.906605).
C Out
I first ecame aware of elect Comfort (C) 5 ears ago while investigating another ed maker
named Tempur Pedic (TPX). TPX is a leading manufacturer of memor foam eds, which are premium
priced eds.
Investigating TPX led me to elieve that ed manufacturing was a great usiness. It had high margins, a
stale industr outlook (i.e. the internet wasn't aout to make it osolete), and it wasn't capital intensive.
I ended up making a decent amount on the compan.
As I egan investigating different companies to put into the premium portfolio this ear, I rememered
TPX and looked it up again. Unfortunatel, I didn't like what I found.
As competitors egan making their own memor foam eds, TPX's earning went down. To make
matters worse, TPX's management thought it was a good idea to u one of their struggling
competitors called eal at a high price. After I found that out, I decided to pass on TPX.
However, I liked the edding industr, and that's what led me to C.
C makes two tpes of premium eds - air eds and memor foam eds. The price of these eds
range from $1,000 on the low end, to upwards of $8,000.
ome people ma think it's craz to spend $8,000 on a ed, ut I disagree. Most people acknowledge
that getting a good night sleep oosts our mood and our productivit. ut while the majorit of
people don't need an expensive ed to sleep well, a good numer of people need all the help the can
get to sleep etter.
ome of these people are high powered professionals who have cash to urn ut ver little time for
sleep. It's important for these people to e ale to sleep well when the can, or otherwise their
productivit will take a ig hit.
till others have adequate time to sleep ut have difficult sleeping. Regardless of whether the cause is
medical or pschological, if an technolog will help them sleep etter, the will seriousl consider
spending cash on them. We can easil imagine other groups of people who ma want qualit eds,
such as moms who can't sleep well ecause of neworns, etc.
Recognizing this need, the management of C went one step further and integrated technolog into
their eds. The developed a technolog called leep IQ that analzes the user's sleep patterns and
lets ou optimize the ed's settings for optimal sleep. In some high end eds, the even integrated
technolog to cope with snoring partners.
The new technologies fared well with customers, and sales of C eds soared in recent quarters,
especiall for their higher end eds. When the reported increased sales on Oct 23, their stock price
went up nearl 20% that da alone.
However, as much I like this compan and their products, the are getting on the expensive side. When
I first put C in the Premium Portfolio, the compan was alread not cheap at 20 times earnings. On
a cash flow asis, the compan looked even more expensive.
Now, more than 6 months later, the stock price has appreciated nearl 50% from the da that I first
put it into the Premium Portfolios (U.. stocks has a whole went up 11% over the same period). As a
result, the currentl trade at 26 times trailing 12 month earnings, which is prett expensive on its own,
ut looks even more expensive on a cash flow asis. I elieve C insiders have recognized as much,
judging the fact that some have started selling stocks.
If I felt ver confident that C would grow at a fast rate for a long time, I would e tempted to keep it
in the Premium Portfolios. ut m experience with TPX tells me that this is far from certain, so I've
decided to take out C from the Premium Portfolios.
TOT.TO In
Total nerg ervices (TOT) provides services for oil and gas companies exploration companies. In
2013, TOT collected roughl 50% of their revenue from selling gas compression equipment, 35% from
transporting oil and gas (mostl trucking), and 15% from renting and operating drills.
I first came across TOT when I used to work at the hedge fund in Vancouver. When I talked to other
analsts and investment ankers aout energ service firms, TOT consistentl came up as one of the
est managed companies in the space. There are two reasons wh the made this assertion.
One reason wh analsts liked TOT is ecause of their financial discipline. nerg service companies
face highl volatile revenues. When oil or gas prices are high, exploration companies will pa energ
services firms top dollar to drill and pump oil and gas. However, when oil and gas prices are low, the
equipment that energ service companies own will onl gather dust.
However, in their eagerness to get rich quick, man energ services firms take on det and u lots of
equipment during good times. When the ad times come, the just hope that the won't reach an
det covenants.
TOT on the other hand, carr ver little det. At the end of last quarter, TOT carried $64 million in det.
ut if ou factor in their cash on hand and receivales adjusted for their paales, the in realit onl
carr around $35 million in det. TOT's net income came in at more than this numer last ear, which
means that if the want to, the can wipe out all their det in one ear if the wanted to.
Their alance sheet is so health that m estimation, if the had to liquidate the compan toda, the
could raise at least $250 million. ince the whole compan is worth $600 million, that means investors
in this compan are onl paing $350 million for this compan's future earnings.
However, the downside of running a compan conservativel is that the compan doesn't tend to grow
ver fast. Fortunatel, TOT's management has een careful to onl invest in areas that will generate
high returns. According to one analst, TOT's CO would onl invest in a usiness if it generated a 15%
return on investment. If ou analze the compan's histor, ou'll see that the compan has een ale
to achieve roughl that for the past several ears.
ut despite wanting to investing in the compan, one thing has alwas held me ack, and that's
valuation. ecause everod knew that TOT was well managed, it has traditionall commanded a
premium over other companies. However, with the recent fall in oil prices, TOT's prices came down
somewhat, making it more attractive.
If oil prices continue to fall, TOT's revenues and profits will no dout get hit. However, ecause of their
diversified revenue ase and low det, TOT will do etter than most other energ services companies.
In fact, falling prices might create opportunities for TOT as some of their competitors might look to sell
their equipment to TOT at lower prices.
As a relativel small energ services compan, TOT has a lot of room to grow, and I elieve their share
prices will grow at a health rate over the long run.
Tags : eds (/welog/tags/eds/) Natural Gas (/welog/tags/Natural%20Gas/) Oil (/welog/tags/Oil/)
hort url : http://www.monegeek.ca/welog/5H/ (http://www.monegeek.ca/welog/5H/)
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