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 WORLD COPPER MINE SUPPLY AND CAPACITY TRENDS; CHALLENGES FOR
COPPER CONCENTRATE MINERS, SMELTERS, REFINERIES, BYPRODUCTS
AND WASTE DISPOSAL

By

Carlos Risopatron

International Copper Study Group (ICSG), Portugal

Presenter and Corresponding Author

Carlos Risopatron
risopatron@icsg.org

ABSTRACT

The objective of this document is to offer a comprehensive overview of the situation of the global
copper mine supply in 2017-2018, including copper concentrates and mine refined SX-EW cathodes,
and to deliver the state of knowledge on the future copper mine capacity, including expansion plans
and new mines until 2025. Current challenges for copper smelters processing increasingly complex
copper concentrates from domestic and imported volatile concentrates copper contents and mine ore
grades trends in different regions will be discussed. The review includes a summary on the public
discussion on smelting and copper sulphide processing and the regulatory environment related to the
air and water emission of these plants in different regions of the world. The information sources are
both technical papers discussed in copper metallurgy conferences in recent years and ICSG statistics
and forecasts for the global copper mine, smelter and refinery supply and copper uses in different
regions. A small discussion on the situation and role of copper and copper alloys scrap supply in the
global copper industry value chain and the global perspectives of refined and scrap copper use is
included.

This paper outlines the current situation of the global copper industry, focusing mainly in the
quantification of upstream flows of copper from concentrates, SX-EW mine refined output and scrap
supply. The discussion on current volumes of copper smelter production from concentrates and scrap
is summarized, focusing on the relation between copper miners, smelters, refineries and
environmental regulatory authorities in different regions. The challenges of waste disposal in the
copper industry and the options to invest in different smelting and sulphide processing technologies
are identified. An overview of the role of recycled copper both in the fabrication of copper products as
in the production of refined copper is discussed. Finally an overview of the world industrial use of
refined copper and scrap is presented to produce a picture of the global copper value chain in recent
years.

Keywords: global copper mine supply, copper concentrates, mine refined SX-EW, copper smelters,
copper refineries, waste and byproducts, copper scrap, recycled copper use,

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 1

 ICSG Membership: Inter Governmental, but a list of
publications available for the academy and industry.
➢Membership is open to any country involved in copper production, usage, or trade.
➢26 member governments (incl. Germany) plus the European Union
➢Most recent countries joining in the last two years: Brazil, Mongolia, D.R. Congo
➢Headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal. With International Lead, Zinc and Nickel Study Groups since 2006.
➢~40 governments in all study groups in 2018.

Australia European Union Iran Russian Fed.

Belgium France Luxembourg Serbia
Brazil Germany Mexico Spain
Chile Greece Mongolia Sweden
China India Peru United States
DR Congo Italy Poland Zambia
Finland Japan Portugal

Contents
1. Mine Supply Constraints: Copper Concentrate and SX-EW Refineries

2. World Copper Production and Capacity: 2017-2019 and Beyond

3. Recycled Copper Trade and Use: Trends and the Scrap Shortage

4. Challenges Ahead for Copper Smelters Processing Concentrates

5. Copper Industry Emission Controls and Waste Management Response

6. Refined Copper Flows and Downstream Industrial Uses

7. Copper Industry Byproducts: Opportunities

8. Conclusions and Publications

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 2

 1. Mine Supply Constraints: Copper
Concentrate and SX-EW Mine Refined

Copper miners global output: duplicated in 1997-2017.

2016 record not sustained by copper concentrates supply in 2017.

Is difficult to sustain the world copper concentrate

output growth of 3.2% a year 1997-2017.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 3

 World copper mining output 2007-2017 up >192 Mt-Cu.
37% of accumulated copper mining output of 1974-2017.

Some copper mines aging expressed now:

in ore grades reduction,
deepening of open pits
and underground operations,
hardening of the rock,
and increasing stripping ratios.

After growing >3 Mt-Cu in recent years, global copper

concentrate supply peaked in 2016 and fell in 2017.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 4

 Chile SX-EW annual output falling since 2009
DRC unable to expand mine refined output in 2016-2017

Record growth of imputities in copper concentrates

in the last 5 years before 2017 (Aurubis- April 2018)

Copper Concentrates Content Change

2016 versus 2012 (%)
Lead
Bismuth
Arsenic
Iron
Mercury
0% 50% 100% 150%

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 5

 Top copper mines output down in 2017: not just labour action.
Falling ore grades reported in concentrate exports of some mines.

As copper ore grades declined fast, new challenges emerged:

As, Hg complexity in processed ores, less oxides vs sulphides, ore process technologies, refractory ores.

Sources: Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain, Monash University, Australia (2016), Catholic University Chile (2017), COCHILCO. ICSG data.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 6

 Declining grades, ore complexity and more waste:
upward pressure in energy and water costs.

Some victories: more reuse of water from copper mine tailings in Chile.
Urban waste waters treated by miners and a % to irrigation in Peru.

Copper mining projects developing and in study in 2018

are more complex, deeper and have lower grades on average.

On aging copper mines and use of porphyry deposits,

copper ore grades lower in North America and Latin America
http://users.monash.edu.au/~gmudd/publications.html

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 7

 Main reason for falling copper ore grade averages:
most profitable low grade porphyry deposits mined first.
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30 World Copper
Grades
1.10
% Cu
0.90
1980
1981
1982
1983

1986

1989
1984

2011
2012
2013
1985

1987
1988

2010

2014
2015
2016
2017
1991

1993

1996

1999
1990

1992

1994
1995

1997
1998

2000

2005
2001
2002
2003
2004

2006
2007
2008
2009
Copper Mine
Resources % Copper Mine
Copper Mines Operational and %Cu Operational and Resources by
Undeveloped by Deposit Classification 2017 Undeveloped Mt-Cu Deposit Mt-Cu
Epithermal 0.18% 5 0.3%
Magmatic Sulphides 0.29% 76 4.2%
Sedimentary Pb-Zn 0.39% 11 0.6%
Porphyry Deposits 0.45% 1317 73.5%
Others 0.59% 16 0.9%
Skarn 0.70% 34 1.9%
Iron Oxide Cu-Au 0.71% 135 7.5%
Volcanogenic Sulphides 0.78% 32 1.8%
Sedimentary Deposits 1.52% 165 9.2%

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016303545

Concentrate trade sustained because top producers

do not smelt enough at home: half of output traded internationally.
Rest of the
Global Value Chain for Main Copper World
Mexico
Concentrate Exporters kt-Cu (2015)
18,000 Brazil
16,000
14,000 Mongolia
12,000 United States
10,000
8,000 Canada
6,000
Indonesia
4,000
2,000 Australia
0
Peru
2015 Copper in 2015 Copper in 2015 Primary
Concentrate Concentrate Net Smelter Production Chile
Production kt-Cu Exports kt-Cu Reported kt-Cu

Smelters using imported copper concentrate increasingly dependent

from Chile, Perú, Australia and Indonesia concentrate exports in 2018.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 8

 Global trade of copper concentrates: more concentrated.
63% of all copper concentrates exported from Chile and Peru in 2017.
66% of all copper concentrates imported by China and Japan in 2017.

Peru emerged as a key supply source of copper concentrates in 2016-2017.

Exports from Spain, Mexico, Brazil and Kazakhstan increase market share.

With lower ore grades the global flow of impurites in

concentrates exports grow faster than the copper content.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 9

 Copper concentrates trade statistics reported only in gross weight,
so the copper content is estimated: ICSG working to improve accuracy.

Gap between concentrate prices declarations between exporters

and importers to different customs growing again in 2017-2018.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 10

 2. World Copper Supply and Capacity:
2017-2019 and Beyond

Global copper flows: SX-EW, concentrates, scrap smelted and scrap fabricated
Fabricators of
SX-EW copper and
SX-EW: <3.9 Mt in 2016, <3.8 Mt in 2017!
Mine Refined alloy products:
Concentrate Concentrate •copper wire rod
Smelted: Refined:
Copper >16 Mt-Cu <15.6 Mt-Cu
•copper tubes

concentrates in 2016 in 2016 •copper sheet

•copper rod bars
Scrap Scrap
Stocks of Smelted: Refined: •copper alloy tubes
copper scrap, 2.88 Mt-Cu 3.22 Mt-Cu
copper alloy •copper alloy sheet
in 2016 in 2016
scrap •copper alloy rod
and waste
scrap. Scrap directly melted by fabricators:
4.93 million tonnes copper in 2016
_____
•foundry castings

ICSG Refined Copper Use + Scrap Direct Melt 2016 = 28,3 Mt-Cu

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 11

 Global copper mine supply expected to increase
less than 800 kt-Cu in 2018+2019 versus 2017.
FORECAST TO 2019
REGIONS MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE

('000 t Cu) 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019

Africa 1,962 2,188 2,469 1,278 1,434 1,659 208 210 213
N.America 2,647 2,720 2,820 1,847 1,875 1,980 2,307 2,349 2,387
Latin America 8,395 8,663 9,116 2,937 3,111 3,151 438 447 457
Asean-10 / Oceania 1,957 2,221 1,953 1,045 1,122 1,263 1,155 1,156 1,199
Asia ex Asean/CIS 2,432 2,507 2,682 12,066 12,645 13,296 15,385 15,929 16,329
Asia-CIS 840 861 871 438 438 438 103 106 106
EU 957 951 945 2,729 2,758 2,796 3,238 3,321 3,344
Europe Others 839 875 927 1,163 1,187 1,214 925 950 960
TOTAL 20,028 20,984 21,782 23,503 24,570 25,796 23,758 24,468 24,995

World adjusted 1/ 2/ 20,028 20,670 20,758 23,503 24,511 24,664 23,758 24,468 24,995
% change -1.6% 3.2% 0.4% 0.7% 4.3% 0.6% 0.7% 3.0% 2.2%
World Refined Balance (China apparant usage basis) -254 43 -331

Will copper refineries add +1.1 Mt-Cu of supply in 2018+2019?

Will refined copper use grow <1.2 Mt-Cu in 2018+2019?

Copper mining sector CAPEX fell >50% in 2012-2017.

So most of large new projects will not start before 2024.
COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap ≥110Ktpy Cu)
600
Projects in this box
planned for after 2023

550

Resolution
500

450

400
Tampakan
Kamoa El Pachon
350 Las Bambas Udokan

Cobre Panama La Granja

Radomiro Tomic
(Sulphides)
300 Sentinel
Taca Taca
Quellaveco Agua Rica
250 Michiquillay
Deziwa & Ecaille C Aynak Galore Creek
Nicico (total projects) NuevaUnion Los Helados Reko Diq
200 Rio Blanco Panantza Haquira
El Arco Los Azules
El Galeno Los Helados
Vizcachitas
Frieda River
150
Sicomines King King Pebble Junin
Pumpkin Hollow Yandera Cañariaco
Qulong Shaft Creek Altar
Constancia Tia Maria Rosemont Conga
Mina Justa
100 Santo Domingo Norte Abierto
Bozshakol

50

T otal annual Capacity of Listed Projects in this chart : 9.6Mt Cu

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 12

 World mine capacity 2017-2021 up just 2% YoY = +2.1 Mt.
Concentrate capacity to >21 Mt in 2021, SX-EW capacity to >5Mt.
('000t Cu)
30,000 Concentrates SX-EW World Mine Capacity YoY Growth (RHS) 6%

25,000 5,057 5%
4,811 4,850
4,688 4,797
4,679
20,000 4%

15,000 3%

10,000 19,605 20,188 20,817 2%

18,736 19,218 19,301

5,000 1%

0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

(000t Cu)
27,000
•Only +350 kt-Cu from expansions of mines operational.
25,000
• From new copper mine projects: +1.65 Mt-Cu Mine projects
under feasibility

• From new copper mines in development: +1.35 Mt-Cu

23,000

Mines in
21,000 development

19,000

Mines currently
17,000 operating (incl.
expansions &
closures)
15,000

13,000
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Most of new mine capacity 2017-2021: DRC, Panama and China.

Most of the copper mine capacity growth in concentrates.
Oceania
South America
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
400
SX-EW
200 Concentrates
('000t Cu)

Chile Net:

0
Congo

Australia
Iran

Peru
Panama

Mexico
Kazakhstan

Myanmar

Others
China

Russia
Zambia

Mongolia
United States

Philippines

-200

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 13

 Asia copper smelter capacity: +3.2Mt to 5 Mt-Cu by 2021.
Asia: 60% of world copper smelting capacity by 2021.
('000t Cu)

2,500

2,250
Copper smelter capacity Possible smelter capacity growth after
expected increase until 2021 2021 (some not yet approved)
2,000

1,750

1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0
Mongolia

India

India
China

Mexico
Poland

DRC

Kazakhstan
Indonesia

Iran

Chile

New Projects Expansions Indonesia

Both

2017-2021 electrolytic refineries growth: China, India and Mongolia.

SX-EW mine refined up in 2021 DRC, US and Iran. Down in Chile and Laos.

('000t Cu)

Electrowinning
2,250

2,000

1,750
Electrolytic
1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0
United…
Iran

Indonesia

Mexico

Chile
India

Peru
Congo

Poland

Laos
China

Myanmar

Others
Mongolia

Finland

-250

-500

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 14

 3. Recycled Copper Trade and Use:
Waste, Alloys and Copper Scrap

Only 47% of recycled copper trade went to China in 2017.

2018 exports to China gross weight down, up in copper content.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 15

 Copper related scrap exported to China up 9% in 2017.
so recycled copper use in Chinese copper smelters up in 2017.
Copper and Alloy Waste and Scrap Exports to China
Reported as HS Code 7404 - kt in Gross Weight
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,100
2,050
2,000

2015 2016 2017

China Secondary Smelter Production

ICSG Statistics March 2017 kt
1,550
1,500
1,450
1,400
1,350
1,300

2015 2016 2017

EU-28 annual outflow of low%Cu ~600 kt per year, more left in 2017.
Where it will go when China copper alloy scrap imports be zero?

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 16

 Most of US scrap exports to China: high copper content and NESOI.
May 4 2018: China to open all scrap sourced from US. CCIC stop processing applications.

"Not Elsewhere Specified or Indicated“ = not possible to identify the composition (ISRI).

Exports of low grade recycled copper to China

collapsed in early 2018: Australian exports hit hardest.

• New Chinese regulations 1st of March 2018

• Imports of scrap restricted to scrap users.
• Impurities in the imported scrap: no more than 1%.
• Reduction of number of copper scrap trade quotas.

April 19, 2018: complete ban on imports of low grade scrap by the end of 2018.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 17

 China Copper Scrap Imports Annual Growth
February 2018 /February 2017:
-52.4 %
Copper content of Chinese imports to grow to ~99 %Cu in 2019-2020.

China Customs Copper Scrap Imports 2017

Gross Weight and Copper Content
Copper Scrap
With Average
Copper Content
90%: 1067 kt
in gross weight
Copper Scrap
less than 1 Mt
With Average
Copper
Copper Content
15%:
2,491 kt
in gross weight.
Less than 500 kt
Copper

Copper imported as scrap to China to fall temporarily

around ~700 kt-Cu or more in 2018

The global use of recycled copper remained stagnated

around 8 Mt-Cu per year in 2005-2016.

Global Use of Recycled Copper

ICSG Recyclables Survey 2018 kt-Cu
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
World: Scrap Refined
2,000
World: Scrap Direct Melt
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
F

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 18

 Use of recycled copper in China: peak 2012, then down.
Up slowly in the world ex-China.

World recycled copper use up to ~8.8 Mt-Cu in 2017.

Small global growth in refined copper from scrap in 2017.
High growth in scrap directly melted by fabricators.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 19

 Survey of Global Use of Recycled Copper and Data Sources – 2018 Edition
Direct use of recycled copper in fabrication: from 4.93 Mt-Cu in 2016 to 5.40 Mt-Cu in 2017 (preliminary).
Refined copper output from scrap: up from 3.22 Mt-Cu in 2016 to 3.36 Mt-Cu in 2017 (preliminary).
ICSG Copper Recyclables Survey 2018 - Data Sources ICSG Copper Recyclables Survey 2018 - Data Sources
Copper in Scrap Directly Melted by Fabricators
2016 2017 Sources for 2016 Refined Copper Output from Scrap Recycled
United States 792.7 832.5 Government Source - USGS
China 723.5 795.9 Antaike to 2015 + Lilan % Growth 2016-2017
Japan 537.3 584.0 Government Source - METI 2016 2017 Sources for 2016
Italy
India
414.7
334.9
459.0
370.7
ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
China 1,568.0 1,613.0 Government Related Source - Antaike
Germany 309.3 342.4 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Japan 293.6 321.9 Government Source - METI
Russian Fed.
Mexico
213.2
196.4
236.0
217.4
ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Germany 278.0 280.8 Copper Industry Sources
Korean Rep. 165.2 182.9 ICSG Balance. Ongoing Survey = 2019 Review Expected Russian Fed. 201.5 210.0 ICSG estimate
Brazil 149.6 165.6 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Turkey 134.3 148.7 ICSG Regression on MENA Copper Use Survey
Belgium 148.8 163.4 Copper Industry Sources
Thailand 100.2 110.9 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Korean Rep. 124.8 163.0 Industry Association
Spain 88.4 97.9 ICSG: Fabrication+Foundry Castings-Refined Use
Ukraine 66.7 73.8 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Austria 103.2 100.0 Government Source - Ministry
Taiwan 66.4 73.5 ICSG Balance. Ongoing Survey = 2019 Review Expected Poland 106.6 85.0 Copper Industry Sources
United Kingdom 63.3 70.0 ICSG: Fabrication+Foundry Castings-Refined Use
Iran 62.8 69.5 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Spain 74.2 80.8 Copper Industry Sources
South Africa 42.3 46.9 Estimate on Historic Use - 2019 Review Expected Sweden 62.2 65.8 ICSG Estimate
Saudi Arabia 40.1 44.4 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Poland 39.2 43.4 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Iran 61.7 57.0 Government Source - NICICO
Indonesia 38.3 42.4 ICSG Regression on ASEAN Copper Use Survey United States 46.3 40.1 Government Source - USGS
Romania 35.1 38.8 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Greece 34.4 38.1 Copper Industry Sources
Canada 30.0 31.4 Copper Industry Sources
Malaysia 33.3 36.9 ICSG Regression on ASEAN Copper Use Survey Bulgaria 19.2 25.0 Copper Industry Sources
Argentina 29.1 32.2 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Czech Rep. 27.7 30.6 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Brazil 27.0 24.8 Copper Industry Sources
Bulgaria 24.5 27.1 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Ukraine 20.0 20.0 ICSG Estimate
Netherlands 24.1 26.7 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Austria 18.7 20.6 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use India 3.5 19.5 ICSG Estimate
Portugal 18.2 20.1 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Argentina 16.0 16.0 ICSG Estimate
Serbia 14.9 16.5 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Switzerland 14.8 16.4 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Colombia 10.0 10.0 Copper Industry Sources
Sweden 13.5 15.0 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Italy 6.6 8.7 Industry Association
Vietnam 12.1 13.4 ICSG Regression on ASEAN Survey-2019 Review
Slovenia 10.9 12.0 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Turkey 5.0 7.0 ICSG Estimate
Finland 8.5 9.4 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Mexico 5.0 5.0 ICSG Estimate
United Arab Emirates 7.8 8.7 ICSG Regression on MENA Copper Use Survey
Peru 7.7 8.6 ICSG Regression: America ex-US Copper Use Survey Others 5.0 5.0 ICSG Estimate
Zambia 6.5 7.2 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Egypt 4.0 4.0 ICSG Estimate
Slovakia 4.2 4.7 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Canada 4.0 4.4 ICSG Regression: America ex-US Copper Use Survey Finland 4.0 4.0 Copper Industry Sources
Philippines 3.5 3.9 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use Serbia 1.0 1.0 ICSG Estimate
Chile 2.5 2.7 ICSG Regression: America ex-US Copper Use Survey
Denmark 0.7 0.8 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Hungary 0.3 0.3 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use
Colombia 0.1 0.1 ICSG Country Balance: Industry Use-Refined Use World Scrap Refined 3,225.1 3,362.2
World Survey 2018 4,936.1 5,403.2

4. Challenges for Copper Smelters and

Refineries Processing Copper Concentrates

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 20

 More impurities in copper concentrates melted affected
operations of copper smelters and copper refineries.

Source: http://www.copper2016.jp/program/index.html (2016)

More complex copper concentrates melted, so copper smelter

products have more arsenic, bismuth, lead and other metals.

http://www.copper2016.jp/program/index.html

More metal impurities in smelter production means more hazardous waste:

copper smelter flue dusts to clean and dispose safely as scorodite.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 21

 More efficient electrolytic refineries produced cleaner refined copper output
= much more refinery slimes = more by-products and hazardous waste to dispose.

New metallurgy technology in copper smelter projects to increase

number and volume of metals recovered from complex concentrates.
Hazardous waste to process and dispose might increase too.

Another way to avoid environmental constraints

is importing more copper smelter products.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 22

 Global trade of smelter products up to ~200 kt per year.
China imports boom on exports from Zambia and other countries.

More if rejected low grade scraps are smelted

outside China and sent to China as blister copper or anodes?

UN IMO Global Rules to Reduce Maritime Risks

in Transport of Copper Ores and Concentrates

• Obligation by IMO for shippers to

self-classify their bulk cargoes:

• hazardous to the marine environment

(« HME »)
• materials only hazardous in bulk
(« MHB »)

• Metal concentrates could present a hazard

« corrosive metals ».

• Industry response to the risk: classify

corrosivity of copper concentrates.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 23

 5. Emission Controls and Copper Industry
Waste Management Response

After 12 years of China limiting metals in imported concentrates,

specialized Asian smelters treat complex concentrates and stabilize waste.
China National Standard GB 20424 - Year 2006
Maximum Allowed % of Harmful Element Content
Concentrate Type Lead Arsenic Iron Cadmium Mercury
Copper Concentrates 6 0.5 0,1 0.05 0.01
Zinc Concentrates 0.6 0.3 0.06
Lead Concentrates 0.7 0.05
Bulk Zinc/Lead Concentrates 0.45 0.4 0.05
Tin Concentrates 0.5 2.5 0.05
Nickel Concentrates 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.001
Cobalt Concentrates 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.001

Historically, smelters in Japan and South Korea do not take concentrates

above 0.2% Arsenic. China import limits remains 0.5% Arsenic in 2018.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 24

 China 2006 sulphur capture rule response:
all blast furnaces replaced by oxygen blowing in 2015.

China new copper smelter capacity: cleaner but new challenges ahead.

More strict rules in China on lead air emissions in 2012.

Copper smelters water emission rules to be enforced in China.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 25

 European Commission new water emission limits (2016):
highly restrictive for some metals and copper industry, more flexible for others.

High arsenic in concentrates used in the European Union

means that water emission limit of 0.1 mg/l remains a target.

In the case of a high arsenic

content in the total input of the
plant, the BAT-AEL is allowed to be
up to 0,2 mg/l.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 26

 No global standard yet for pollutants air emissions and air
concentrations inside or around copper smelters in 2018.

Some countries as Chile invested to reduce copper smelters air emissions.

Chile Copper Smelters Mercury Emissions Estimate

for 2010 in Tonnes per Year.
( Emission factor: 5.81 mg/Kg of concentrate)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Chuquicamata Ventanas Alto Norte Caletones Potrerillos Chagres Hernan Videla
Lira

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 27

 Chile new roaster calcines: arsenic reduced to < 0.3%.
Concentrate costs up, more H2SO4, +As disposal, but premium prices.

Arsenic abatement capacity utilized is only <50% of the plants design.

Complex concentrates from other mines can now be treated in Chile for a TC.

Onsite copper sulphides leaching: is the best alternative to

conventional smelting of complex concentrates?
• High copper recovery> 98.5% in continuos process.
• Use idle capacity of SX / EW plants.
• It does not emit As or S to the atmosphere.
• It generates stable arsenical residue and less water use.
• Replace concentrate pipelines and sales to smelters.
• Chloride, fluoride leach residues disposal and metal hydroxide disposal.
•Costs: Opex: US $ 0.25 - 0.35/lb. Capex around ~USD 300 -350 Million

Chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) is the most common ore of copper.

Sulphide concentrate leaching can use SX-EW infrastructure from depleted heap leaching.
Average Mineral Composition of Complex Copper Concentrates Processed
in Selected Copper Smelters in South America (*)
% %
2012-2014 2005-2014

High Chalcosite High Chalcopyrite

Concentrates Concentrates

Chalcosite Cu2S 30.73 0.31

Enargyte Cu3AsS4 23.81 0.56
Pyrites FeS2 22.12 18.31
Coveline CuS 3.88 3.78
Chalcopiryte CuFeS2 3.46 51.32
Bornite Cu5FeS4 2.81 6.49
Wurtzite ZnS 1.99 0.14
Tetrahedryte (Cu,Fe)12Sb4S13 0.52 0.85
Galene PbS 0.18 0.05
Cuprite Cu2O 0.08 0.06
Molybdenite MoS2 0.06 0.14
Digenite Cu9S5 1.38
Gange 10.10 14.59
Other Minerals 0.25 2.01
(*) Alto Norte smelter, specialized in high As concentrates not included
Data: Technology Research Institute - University of Concepcion - Chile 2018

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 28

 CESCO 1st Impurities Conference Chile April 2017: technologies to remove
impurities close to copper mines, avoid transport and downstream processing.
Innovation and Regulation
• Regulations are seen as obstacle but is also enticing to seek Optimizing the Copper Value Chain
solutions and improve the quality of products that arise at each • The arsenic and other impurities accumulates
stage of the operation. Beyond the heterogeneity observed in
today's regulatory systems, its common denominator is the throughout the mining - metallurgical process
sustained increase of the regulations and the extension of its and is necessary to have solutions for its proper
scope.
handling. This requires further technological
development, despite the fact that sometimes
Arsenic Removal in Roasting Plants the market and regulators are unpredictable.
• Roasting could be a solution for impurities, but the handling and
disposal of the arsenic extracted from the system must be taken Technology solutions should look to "optimize
care of. the system" and solve problems along the
entire value chain and not transfer them to
In Situ Concentrate Separation the next stage.
• Japan JOGMEC: one of the strategies used is to try to separate the
concentrates with high and low As in situ, in such a way to avoid
the transport and processing of materials with As. This would Technologies from Other Industries
require a specialized process to take charge of the concentrate
with high As. Every day resources become more complex. • We must learn from experiences and
technologies from other industries, trying to
Iron Arsenate Encapsulation look outside metals that in some cases can be
• Demopoulos, creator of atmospheric scorodite at the laboratory: conservative for the application of new
“the process does not end with the recovery of value from copper, technologies (i.e. smelters in remote locations).
but with the final disposal of the process residues in a non-
leachable, compact and stable”. The technology of the future for
these purposes might be the encapsulation of the scorodite.

Chinese copper smelters are developing new ways to deal

with more complex concentrates and higher flows of flue dusts.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 29

 In Korea the use of waste acid allows to recover bismuth
and the residual is re-circulated to recover more copper.

With more slimes from different copper refineries in Europe,

more capacity to recover by-products and capture hazardous wastes.

New smelter capable to recover most of metals as by-products

to start operations in Germany around 2023.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 30

 Only replacing high cost polluting smelters by efficient and cleaner
technology the copper industry will be more competitive.

Bath and Flash smelters cash

cost is similar: ~ USD
73/Tonne on average,
but the standard deviation of
cash costs is 37% lower for
Flash smelters.

6. Refined Copper Flows and

Downstream Industrial Uses

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 31

 Global Deficit of Refined Copper Accumulated 2013-2017: ~ 1.5 Mt-Cu.
Meanwhile price volatility driven by metal exchanges speculative positions.

Annual refined copper output growth: stagnated in EU-28, in Russia

and Central Asia, in South Asia and Australia, in Japan and in Korea.

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 32

 China fast refined copper output growth replaced Chile supply contraction.
North America and Africa struggling to recover volumes of previous years.

Adding ICSG refined copper usage and scrap direct melt in fabrication,
global copper demand growing fast: <28.9 Mt-Cu in 2017.

World Copper Use 2005 - 2017F

kt-Cu (Copper Content) ICSG
2017 F
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

World Refined Copper Usage kt-Cu World Scrap Direct Melt kt-Cu

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 33

 Industrial demand for refined copper up fast in 2015 and 2016.
but in 2017 fabricators direct use of scrap was faster.
World Annual Growth: Direct Melt Scrap
and Refined Copper Usage kt-Cu
600

400

200

0
2015 2016 2017 F
-200
World Refined Copper Usage kt-Cu World Scrap Direct Melt kt-Cu

Copper in reported industrial uses of copper: growing faster

than demand and estimated over 30 Mt-Cu since 2016.
Copper Content in Industrial Uses Reported by ICSG - Estimates by Country
Fabricated copper and alloys, foundry products, copper alloy castings, copper alloy ingots and master ingots trade included kt-Cu
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China 4,866.2 5,374.4 7,223.7 9,430.0 11,973.4 8,816.2 9,340.2 9,867.4 12,047.5 13,222.4 14,286.2 15,313.7
European Union 28 5,077.7 5,383.7 5,259.7 4,805.8 3,758.0 4,227.3 4,122.0 3,924.8 3,859.1 4,113.4 4,098.5 4,142.5
United States 3,267.7 3,102.3 3,003.0 2,725.9 2,059.4 2,301.9 2,273.6 2,329.6 2,335.6 2,387.8 2,332.6 2,292.7
Japan 1,678.8 1,770.5 1,698.3 1,604.3 1,174.5 1,402.5 1,354.7 1,292.4 1,308.8 1,377.3 1,299.7 1,290.4
Korean Rep. 1,208.1 1,175.4 1,221.5 1,185.1 1,199.2 1,210.3 1,135.7 1,052.9 1,088.2 1,030.8 976.7 925.7
India 603.5 658.1 753.2 867.6 888.7 832.0 784.2 823.5 808.5 808.5 808.5 808.5
Taiwan 778.1 783.7 733.4 656.4 622.7 722.0 645.7 591.1 612.6 651.6 619.8 577.7
Mexico 597.3 426.9 575.4 510.0 435.1 444.6 455.7 502.3 529.7 546.5 559.1 564.4
Russian Fed. 851.2 923.6 964.6 192.3 829.1 546.7 582.0 795.4 643.8 558.8 490.9 516.5
Turkey 355.2 403.7 351.2 413.9 375.1 409.6 62.3 467.6 468.7 486.8 508.3 497.1
Thailand 295.1 57.8 306.9 319.6 331.2 314.8 355.6 365.8 379.8 397.0 415.7 435.7
United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 79.0 162.0 198.0 244.0 365.0 349.0 390.0 420.0
Brazil 352.7 371.9 368.4 368.6 315.0 152.3 387.5 387.2 401.3 400.6 396.3 392.5
Vietnam 54.0 75.2 98.0 100.0 105.0 108.1 91.6 92.6 97.8 135.9 171.9 222.3
Iran 176.3 181.8 190.2 196.8 194.6 191.0 171.2 209.8 209.8 209.8 209.8 209.8
Saudi Arabia 195.0 195.0 191.3 180.7 165.8 195.0 216.0 355.8 207.0 207.0 207.0 207.0
Indonesia 190.2 198.8 222.5 203.5 198.5 227.5 250.7 194.1 195.3 191.3 192.1 182.5
Canada 316.6 307.6 316.3 233.4 208.5 136.0 161.6 157.6 156.1 156.0 155.9 156.8
SouthAfrica, Zambia, Zimbabwe 136.4 100.9 123.3 108.8 125.5 123.1 101.3 120.4 126.4 129.3 135.5 143.4
Malaysia 225.3 233.8 243.8 253.8 235.6 217.7 229.2 232.9 200.0 172.1 148.4 128.2
Egypt 105.0 110.0 140.0 170.0 171.5 171.4 152.0 138.0 131.0 141.0 152.0 116.0
Others 57.6 62.6 67.6 68.6 67.8 68.6 91.9 102.7 109.6 111.6 111.6 111.6
Ukraine 75.0 84.9 8.8 78.8 46.7 39.0 42.8 82.0 76.0 90.1 88.3 86.7
Chile 107.1 98.2 98.2 109.6 114.2 99.2 100.5 102.0 97.8 93.0 88.4 84.2
Serbia 42.8 43.1 43.7 44.5 47.8 54.1 54.7 47.4 53.0 52.9 52.9 52.9
Argentina 54.2 46.5 47.4 55.0 54.2 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5
Philippines 48.1 46.9 45.1 44.4 43.1 44.2 45.1 45.6 45.6 46.1 46.1 46.1
Uzbekistan 0.0 45.0 47.1 47.6 45.1 45.2 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0
Kazakhstan 14.2 33.9 41.0 53.7 18.9 37.8 35.1 37.0 37.6 38.3 38.7 39.0
Oman 12.0 15.0 10.0 14.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0
Switzerland 26.4 2.5 20.2 21.4 20.1 14.5 18.7 18.9 18.0 18.7 18.7 18.8
Australia 182.0 173.7 157.0 159.6 166.0 144.5 145.6 112.1 85.2 23.2 10.0 10.0
Colombia 10.0 10.0 18.0 22.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Ecuador 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Venezuela 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
New Zealand 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Peru 53.3 60.2 63.9 46.9 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

World Industrial Copper Use 22,020.7 22,561.8 24,657.1 25,332.0 26,112.7 23,549.0 23,741.3 24,828.7 26,830.5 28,282.7 29,145.6 30,128.7

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 34

 Copper wire rod output in China close to >8 Mt-Cu in 2017.
Other copper and alloy semis ~10.6 Mt (gross weight) in 2017.

Fabrication expansion in China up on 2016-2017 investments.

Will new wire rod capacity grow slower in 2018-2020?

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 35

 2017: copper/alloys fabrication up in most of the world reporting.
Estimated fabrication output up >2% in ASEAN, up >1.5% in the Middle East in 2017.
Copper and alloy fabrication down in the US and in Germany in 2017.
ICSG Reported Fabrication of Copper and Copper Alloy Products
Gross Weight kt
2016 2017 Annual Growth Rate Period
United States 2,032 2,000 -1.6% January-November
Germany 1,700 1,680 -1.2% Year
Japan 1,330 1,372 3.2% Year
Korean Republic 1,130 1,170 3.5% Year
Italy 1,060 1,110 4.7% Year
Taiwan (China) 605 705 16.5% Year
Poland 313 315 0.6% Year

Reported ex China 8,170 8,352 2.2% to April 2018

China 17,700 18,600 5.1% Year

ICSG World Reported 25,870 26,952 4.2% to April 2018

7. Copper Industry Byproducts:

Opportunities

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 36

 Metals associated with copper

Percentage 100%
of primary
production 75%

from
50%
copper
25%

0%
By-product wheel figures credited to Nassar, Graedel and Harper (Science Advances, 1(3), 2015)

8 most valuable by-products are associated

with the copper mining industry

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 37

 Market share of key producers of by-products.
Copper industry by-products in red

Japan -
35% Selenium
USA -
30% Tellurium •China -
•88% Bismuth
Mexico -
•32% Cadmium
19% Silver •52% Indium
•63% Gallium
Congo, DR - •67% Germanium
49% Cobalt •39% Molybdenum
•87% REOs
Chile - •15% Gold
51% Rhenium •55% Arsenic
•85% Mercury

Nearly half of cobalt mine production from copper miners.

One third from nickel mines. More from copper ahead.
World Cobalt Mine Output, by Primary Product(t Co)
Copper
Cobalt 46%
18%

Nickel Other
35% 1%
Source: ICSG – INSG Produced by Consulting Firm Roskill. Available for sale at: www.icsg.org

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 38

 Copper Mines: 11% of Gold Output
and 20% of Silver Mine Output
Gold Silver
1ary production 1ary production
≈ 2,900 tonnes ≈ 26,000 tonnes

2 ary production 2ary production

≈ 1,500 tonnes ≈ 6,000 tonnes
(33% of total) (20% of total)

Geographical distribution of gold by-production in copper

Source: Oakdene Hollins Analysis of ICSG data, 2012

8. Conclusions
1. Future copper mines will be more complex, deeper and expensive on lower ore grades

2. Falling copper content in concentrates trade: more impurities trade adding to higher costs

3. Shortage of new copper mine capacity 2018-2022. Limited expansion in operational mines

4. Over 60% of smelting capacity in Asia in 2021. Almost half of fabrication use in China now

5. More concentrates trade need, but regulatory disparity driving output shortages

6. Recycled copper shortage in China in 2018. Expect less scrap to be refined in China

7. Fabricators demand high grade scrap , but only expensive refined is available

8. More demand for smelter products, but they content more As, Bi, Pb and other metals

9. More impurities as Hg, As and Bi increasing smelters flue dust and other hazardous wastes

10. Low prices in metal exchanges, but deficit of refined copper observed in recent years

11. More complex copper concentrates: opportunity to recover valuable by-products

ALTA 2018 Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Proceedings 39