Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FORWARD: PRICING
VALUE OF FORWARD
1. In our 3-month zero-coupon bond contract, we
determined that the no arbitrage forward price was
$507.34. Suppose that after two months the spot price
on the zero-coupon bond is $515, and the risk-free rate
is still 6%. Calculate the value of the long and short
positions in the forward contract?
CONTINUOUS
4. Calculating the price of a forward contract on an
equity index
The value of the S&P 500 index is 1,140. The
continuously compounded risk-free rate is 4.6% and the
continuous dividend yield is 2.1 %. Calculate the no-
arbitrage price of a 140-day forward contract on the
index.
FORWARD ON CURRENCY
6. Calculating the price of a currency forward contract.
The risk-free rates are 6% in the United States and 8% in
Mexico. The current spot exchange rate is $0.0845 per
Mexican peso (MXN). Calculate the forward exchange
rate for a 180-day forward contract.
FRA
FUTURES: BASIC
A. STANDARDIZATION
Agricultural Metals FX
A.2 Code
Most Futures contracts codes are five characters. XX X XX. The first two characters identify the [contract type], the
third character identifies [the month] and the last two characters identify [the year]. January = F; February = G;
March = H; April = J; May = K; June = M; July = N; August = Q; September = U; October = V; November = X; December
= Z.
Crude oil (CL): 1,000 barrels ~ 42,000 gallons Gold (GC): 100 ounces
Wheat (ZW), Corn (ZC): 5,000 bushels1 Silver (SI): 5,000 ounces
Contract Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Wheat 14 14 13 14 14
Dec Mar May July Sep
1
1 gallon = 3.785 (4) liters; 1 bushel corn (56#) = 25.40 (25) kilograms; 1 bushel wheat/soybeans (60#) = 27.22 (27) kilograms
B. MARGINS
At June 29, I purchased 02 December futures contracts. Each contract size is 5.000 ounces of silver. IM = $6,000,
MM = $4,500. (assume IM and MM for 02 contracts)
01 contract size:
My position:
C. DELIVERY PROCEDURES
- When investor A decides to deliver investor A’s broker issues a notice of intention to deliver to the clearing
house. (This notice states how many contracts will be delivered and, in the case of commodities, also specifies
where delivery will be made and what grade will be delivered.)
- Clearing house chooses a party with a long position to accept delivery. Parties with long positions must accept
delivery notices. (The usual rule chosen by the exchange is to pass the notice of intention to deliver on to the
party with the oldest outstanding long position)
- The first notice day is the first day on which a notice of intention to make delivery can be submitted to the
exchange. The last notice day is the last such day. The last trading day is generally a few days before the last
notice day. To avoid the risk of having to take delivery, an investor with a long position should close out his or
her contracts prior to the first notice day.
FUTURES: COMMODITY
LEASE RATES
1. Calculate 12-month forward price for a bushel of
corn that has S0 = $5 and annual lease rate 7%,
Continuous Rf = 9%
STORAGE COSTS
2. Calculate 03-month forward price for a bushel of
soybeans if S0 = $3, r = 1%/month, monthly storage
costs = $0.04/bushel/month
CONVENIENCE YIELD
4. S0 = $100, F = $106.1837, r = 10%. Calculate implied
convenience yield? T = 1 year.
CRACK SPREAD
5. We plan on buying crude oil in one month to
produce gasoline and heating oil for sale in two
months.
The 1-month futures price for crude oil is $30/barrel.
The 2-month futures price for gasoline and heating oil
are $41 and $31.5/barrel.
Calculate the 5-3-2 crack spread.
CTD BOND
Open interest, the total number of open contracts on a security, applies primarily to the futures
market. Open interest is a concept all futures traders should understand, because it is often used to
confirm trends and trend reversals for futures and options contracts. Although this number often gets
lost as traders focus on bid price, ask price, volume and implied volatility, paying attention to open
interest can help options traders make better trades. Here we take a look at what information open
interest holds for a trader and how traders can use that information to their advantage.
1. If prices are rising and open interest is increasing at a rate faster than its five-year seasonal
average, this is a bullish sign. More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying,
and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature.
2. If the open interest numbers flatten following a rising trend in both price and open interest, take
this as a warning sign of an impending top.
3. High open interest at market tops is a bearish signal if the price drop is sudden, since this will
force many weak longs to liquidate. Occasionally, such conditions set off a self-feeding, downward
spiral.
4. An unusually high or record open interest in a bull market is a danger signal. When a rising trend
of open interest begins to reverse, expect a bear trend to get underway.
5. A breakout from a trading range will be much stronger if open interest rises during the
consolidation. This is because many traders will be caught on the wrong side of the market when the
breakout finally takes place. When the price moves out of the trading range, these traders are forced
to abandon their positions. It is possible to take this rule one step further and say the greater the rise
in open interest during the consolidation, the greater the potential for the subsequent move.
6. Rising prices and a decline in open interest at a rate greater than the seasonal norm is bearish.
This market condition develops because short covering, not fundamental demand, is fueling the
rising price trend. In these circumstances money is flowing out of the market. Consequently, when
the short covering has run its course, prices will decline.
7. If prices are declining and the open interest rises more than the seasonal average, this indicates
that new short positions are being opened. As long as this process continues it is a bearish factor,
but once the shorts begin to cover, it turns bullish.
8. A decline in both price and open interest indicates liquidation by discouraged traders with long
positions. As long as this trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Once open interest stabilizes at a low
level, the liquidation is over and prices are then in a position to rally again.
For example, in the 2002 chart of the COMEX Gold Continuous Pit Contract, shown above, the price
is rising, the open interest is falling off and the volume is diminishing. As a rule of thumb, this
scenario results in a weak market.
If prices are rising and the volume and open interest are both up, the market is decidedly strong. If
the prices are rising and the volume and open interest are both down, the market is weakening. If,
however, prices are declining and the volume and open interest are up, the market is weak; when
prices are declining and the volume and open interest are down, the market is gaining strength.
Short call
Long put
Short put
6. Pay-offs; Example:
Long Call, exercise price X = 100, option premium c0 = 10
Profit; a) Fill the table below:
ST EXERCISE OR NOT? PAY-OFF PROFIT
95
100
105
110
115
b) Create a graph for ST and profit
7. Moneyness;
Example: We intend to open a long call option with option premium c0 = $10,
exercise price X = $100. Option will expire after 90 days.
8. Formula summary
LONG CALL SHORT CALL LONG PUT SHORT PUT
pay-off
intrinsic
value
profit
moneyness
1. where is premiums?
2. where is X?
3. where is BE?
5. limited/unlimited G/L?
Formula
Components
Prove?
Example Example: A put option is now selling in the market with premium p0 = 2, exercise
price X = 100, maturity T = 1 year, spot price S0 = 105, risk free rate rf = 10%.
According to put-call parity, what is the premium of call option with same
2. Put-call-forward parity
Formula
Formula
Example
Box Butterfly
Strips Straps
Example 2:
Long call, X = 45, c = 3; Long put, X = 45, p = 2
a) At T, ST = 35. Compute profit of the strategy?
b) At which ST the loss is maximum?
c) At which ST the profit is maximum?
d) When do we use this strategy? (expect higher/lower
volatility)
Example 3:
Long call, X1 = 50, c = 1.5; Long put, X2 = 45, p = 2
a) At T, ST = 40. Compute profit of the strategy?
b) At which ST the loss is maximum?
c. Formula of n?
b. Formula of πu?
c. Is πu an actual probability?
(Answer: 12.27)
Example 6: HOW TO CALCULATE U AND D FROM σ American put option, S = 50, X = 52, RFR = 5%,
Proof: Life of option is 02 years, there are 02 time steps,
Volatility of underlying asset price is 30%.
Calculate of up-move probability?
Example 7:
SOME OTHER FORMULA OF UP-MOVE PROBABILITY
(i) for compounding
r0 = 3%;
ru = 7%; rd = 4%
ruu = 8%; rdd = 5%; rud = 6%
a) d1 = ? d2 = ? b) Pricing call option on that stock? c) Pricing put option on that stock?
For reference:
Long 01 stock 1
4. Hedging
Example 1: delta port = 600 –n*0.6 =0
I have 600 shares. How many call option should I short in order to n = 1000
hedge the position? Assume delta of each call = 0.6 I will short 1000 call options
Example 2:
Delta of each put = -0.5. How many put options should be used to
hedge 1000 shares?
Example 3:
My portfolio currently has delta = 0, but gamma = -6000
How can we use call option (which has delta = 0.6, gamma = 1.25) to
execute Delta-Gamma hedging this position?
SWAP
Eg.1a.
Eg.1b.
3. Comparative advantages
Fixed Floating
A 10% LB + 1%
B 15% LB + 2%
Eg. 3b.
In hedging, you can hedge your whole portfolio or some portion of it. The hedge ratio is
the size of the futures contract relative to the cash transaction. In a previous example involving a
trader with oil en route from the Gulf, the hedge ratio was one, since she sold a futures contract
representing each barrel of oil. When using turnips to hedge, the ratio was still 1, since the value
of the crude was hedged with an equal value of turnips. If the hedger had sold _ barrel for each
barrel in transit, the hedge ratio would have been _. It turns out that it is not always optimal to
hedge your whole product and Hull (2000) works out what the optimal hedge ratio is to minimize
risk. In his exposition, he defines
ΔS = ST - St = the change in the spot price over the life of the contract,
ΔF = FT - Ft = the change in the futures price over the life of the contract,
ρ = σSF/(σSσF) = the correlation coefficient between ΔS and ΔF, which is the covariance
of ΔS and ΔF divided by the standard deviations of ΔS and ΔF, and
If the hedger owns the products and sells the future, his portfolio value is (S - hF). The change in
value of the portfolio is
ΔS - hΔF.
Alternatively, if the hedger buys the future and is short the product, his portfolio value is hF - S.
The change in value of the portfolio is
hΔF - ΔS.
2 2 2 2
σ2 = σ + h2σ - 2hσSF = σ + h2σ - 2hρσSσF.
S F S F
To find the optimal hedge ratio, which minimizes risk or variance, minimize the above expression
with respect to h.
2
∂σ2/∂h = 2hσ - 2ρσSσF = 0.
F
2
∂2σ2/∂h2 = 2σ > 0.
F
h = ρσS/σF.
President: I don't care what would have happened if the price of oil had gone down. The fact is that it went up. I
really do not know what you were doing playing the futures markets like this. Our shareholders will expect us to
have done particularly well this quarter. I'm going to have to explain to them that your actions reduced profits by
$10 million. I'm afraid this is going to mean no bonus for you this year.
President: Unfair! You are lucky not to be fired. You lost $10 million.
(ii) 2
Additional question: Thị trường thực cần thực hiện vào tháng 9, trên thị trường chỉ có hợp đồng futures tới hạn
tháng 8 và tháng 10, nên chọn hợp đồng tương lai nào để hedging?