Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch, World Tour, NED, Grass, 12/06/2023, €750K, ATP World Tour 250

OC Predict WaS Rank S Rank Pin BF TS

1 Marc-Andrea Huesler SUI 43.59% x 82 67 2.64

Maxime Cressy USA 56.41% 40 4 1.526 1.47 1.55

2 Ugo Humbert FRA 44.03% x 36 58 1.518 1.60 1.85

Jason Murray Kubler AUS 55.97% 97 36 2.66

3 Milos Raonic CAN 58.27% >900 N/A 2.2
Miomir Kecmanovic SRB 41.73% 39 N/A 1.725 1.64
4 Rinky Hijikata AUS 55.70% 133 130 1.694 1.75
Gijs Brouwer NED 44.30% 145 50 2.26

Boss Open - Stuttgart, World Tour, GER, Grass, 12/06/2023, €795K, ATP World Tour 250
OC Predict WaS Rank S Rank Pin BF TS
1 Marcos Giron USA 64.77% x 57 63 1.813 1.68 1.65

Jiri Lehecka CZE 35.23% 37 N/A 2.07

2 Lorenzo Musetti ITA 42.24% x 17 N/A 1.658 1.77 2.00
 Borna Gojo CRO 57.76% 111 97 2.32 2.00
3 Lorenzo Sonego ITA 29.96% 41 43 2.3
Matteo Berrettini ITA 70.04% 21 1 1.671 1.65
4 Richard Gasquet FRA 27.54% 55 N/A 1.885 1.96
Christopher Eubanks USA 72.46% 75 74 1.98
5 Feliciano Lopez ESP 8.70% 580 112 3.05
Yosuke Watanuki JPN 91.30% 121 N/A 1.417 1.37
 Please read the INFO tab at the bottom for help on using
the tips

Tour 250
Comments Trade Confidence (1-10) Predicted win
10:00

Cressy 1-0 (June 2021, grass, 3 sets). Grass win %'s are
better for Cressy.
Huesler made it through the qual rounds at Wimbledon and
Halle last season before losing in the 1st round of the main
draw. He reached a Challenger q final last season.
Cressy won the title in Newport in July. 2nd round at Wimb
and reached the final in Eastbourne.
Back Cressy around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liab at 1.50 .
7.5 x

1st meeting. Grass win %'s favour Kubler.

Humbert reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon. 2nd round
in Halle.
Kubler reached the q finals of a Challenger this month,
losing to eventual champion Murray in 3 sets. Kubler
reached the semis in Newport and 4th round at Wimb as
qualifier last year.
Grass stats since the 1st June 2022 are better for Kubler.
Lay Humbert around 1.40 and remove liab at 1.95. Chance
of 3 sets. Edge to Kubler.
7.5 x

Comments Trade Confidence (1-10) Predicted win

10:00 x

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2023, clay, Giron in straight sets.
Lehecka won indoors in 2022. Grass win %'s are better for
Giron.
Both players lost in the 1st round last year.
Giron reached the 2nd round in Wimbledon. Q finals in
Mallorca.
Lehecka won 1 of his 5 grass matches. 2 of those matches
and his only win was in the Wimb Juniors in 2019.
Back Giron around 2.10 to 2.20.
7.5
Musetti 1-0 (Sep 2022, indoor, 2 sets). Grass win %'s are
better for Gojo.
Musetti lost in the 1st round last year. He won 3 of his 8
grass matches. His 3 wins were in the Wimbledon Juniors in
2018 when he reached the q finals.
Gojo has come through the qual rounds. Almost all his grass
matches were in Challengers.
Lay Musetti around 1.50 and remove liab at 2.00. Chance of
3 sets. Slight edge to Gojo.
7 x
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch, World Tour, NED, Grass, 12/06/2023, $259K, WTA 250
OC Predict WaS Rank S Rank Pin BF TS
1 Veronika Kudermetova RUS 93.73% x 14 15 1.182 1.26 1.30

Alison Riske USA 6.27% 137 18 5.34

2 Greetje Minnen BEL 48.50% x 120 81 1.435 1.42 1.50

Jessika Ponchet FRA 51.50% 127 126 2.97

3 Victoria Azarenka BLR 37.36% x 19 N/A 1.09 1.09 1.15

Natalija Stevanovic SRB 62.64% 231 82 8.93

4 Ysaline Bonaventure BEL 38.91% 92 115 1.245 1.27 1.45
 Carol Zhao CAN 61.09% x 163 N/A 4.34
5 Lena Papadakis GER 53.93% 348 210 14.41
Liudmila Samsonova RUS 46.07% 15 60 1.037 1.04
6 Emina Bektas USA 89.68% 186 173 1.962
Dalma Galfi HUN 10.32% 98 25 1.909 1.96

Rothesay Open - Nottingham, World Tour, GBR, Grass, 12/06/2023, $259K, WTA 250
OC Predict WaS Rank S Rank Pin BF TS
1 Alycia Parks USA 55.13% x 43 37 1.658 1.63 1.65

Lin Zhu CHN 44.87% 39 172 2.32

2 Shuai Zhang CHN 52.84% 31 11 3.66

Tatjana Maria GER 47.16% x 66 43 1.314 1.45 1.80

3 Cristina Bucsa ESP 37.17% 76 71 3.94

Donna Vekic CRO 62.83% x 20 26 1.282 1.30 1.30

4 Sonay Kartal GBR 56.60% 272 50 1.833 1.91
Magdalena Frech POL 43.40% 77 52 2.05
5 Viktoriya Tomova BUL 44.49% 79 29 1.556 1.63
Elizabeth Mandlik USA 55.51% 110 N/A 2.56
6 Maria Sakkari GRE 46.76% 8 10 1.282 1.30
Xiyu Wang CHN 53.24% 75 N/A 3.94
7 Jule Niemeier GER 35.04% 118 86 1.556 1.75
Heather Watson GBR 64.96% 195 73 2.56
8 Madison Brengle USA 1.12% 113 94 4.5
Camila Giorgi ITA 98.88% 47 9 1.232 1.26
 Please read the INFO tab at the bottom for help on using
the tips

Comments Trade Confidence (1-10) Predicted win

10:00 x

Riske 2-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, 2 sets. She won on
grass in 2019, 3rd set tie break. Kudermetova won on hard
in 2018, 3 sets. 12 month grass win %'s are better for
Kudermetova.
Kudermetova reached the semis last season. Q finals in
Berlin in 2022.
Riske lost in an ITF this month to Golubic in 3 sets. She
reached the 3rd round at Wimb. She reached the final in
Nottingham in 2022.
Grass stats last season are better for Riske. Her recent form
on other surfaces has been poor. She has won 1 of her last
10 on all surfaces.
Back Kudermetova around 1.80 to 1.90.
7.5
x

Ponchet 1-0 (Dec 2022, indoor, 2 sets). Long term grass win
%'s are better for Minnen.
Minnen lost in the 1st round last year. 2nd round at
Wimbledon. 2nd round in Bad Homburg.
All Ponchet's WTA grass matched were in qual rounds.
Minnen's form in the last year has not been great. She has
more grass experience and should come though this
match.
Back Minnen around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liab at 1.60.
7
x

1st meeting. Long term grass win %'s are better for
Azarenka.
Azarenka has not played on grass since 2021. That year she
reached the semis in Berlin.
Stev has come through the qual rounds. She was underdog
in the last round against Hon and won in a 3rd set tie
break. She has not won a main draw WTA grass match. She
reached the q finals of an ITF in June 2022. Azarenka has
not been in amazing form since Jan. She did reach the
semis of the Aus Open and q finals in Adelaide.
We could try a lay of Azarenka and remove liab at 1.25.
Back Azarenka around 1.70.
6.5
x
1st meeting. Long term grass win %'s are better for
Bonaventure.
Bona reached the 2nd round of a Challenger in June 2022.
She reached the 2nd round of this event in 2019.
Zhao is inexperienced on grass. She has come through the
qual rounds.
Lay Bonaventure around 1.20 and remove liab at 1.50. Lay
set 1 winner.
6.5

Comments Trade Confidence (1-10) Predicted win

11:00 x

1st meeting. Long term grass win %'s are better for Parks.
Parks reached the 2nd round in Berlin as qualifier last year.
Zhu won 2 of her last 10 on grass. She reached the 2nd
round at Wimbledon 2021.
Back Parks around 2.10 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.
7
x

Zhang 3-0. Most recent Nov 2019, hard, 2 sets. Long term
grass win %'s are better for Maria.
Zhang reached the q finals last season. 3rd round at
Wimbledon. She reached the final in Birmingham.
Maria reached the semis at Wimbledon 2nd round Bad
Homburg.
Grass stats since June 1 2022 favour Zhang. Chance of 3
sets.
Lay Maria around 1.30 and remove liab at 1.75. Lay set 1
winner.
7

1st meeting. 12 month grass win %'s are better for Vekic.
Both players lost in the 1st round last season.
Bucsa has not won a main draw WTA grass matches in the
last 4 years.
Vekic reached the 2nd round in Eastbourne last June. Q
finals in Birmingham as qualifier.
Back Vekic around 1.80
7.5 x
OC predict – This wasn’t meant to be in there! It is the prediction of a player’s chance of winning based on my unique settings

WaS – indicates the Wins a Set selection

Rank – player’s overall ranking

S Rank – player’s ranking on the specific surface

Pin – price on Pinnacle at the time of download. This is just for reference

BF – Betfair price at the time I did the advice document

TS – What I would price the player at based on my pricing model. ***I will not back them below this price.

.
Comments – Stats, info and advice on trading the match
Some players are in yellow and some in orange. The ones in orange will start at a price of 1.70
or higher on Betfair. For clarity those in yellow will NOT start above 1.70. I find it useful to spot decent prices quickly.

Often there are a LOT of matches to cover so I try to be as concise as possible. Obviously if I am TOO concise people can miss s

Here is a list of things that could be included with a short explanation just in case the meaning isn’t clear. I was going to do thi

OC Predict:

I download the day’s matches using On Court software. I have entered my own settings and the software gives an overall pred

WaS:

The x marks the selection. Look at the Predicted win column. If the predicted winner is not indicated in the WaS column, I do

These selections can be useful to indicate who will start the match best in closely priced matches. Alternatively, if the selected

Rank and Surface Rank are self-explanatory.

Pin shows the Pinnacle price so it can be compared with the Betfair price and my own price for the match.
BF shows the Betfair price at the time I compile the info. if the price moves significantly throughout the morning, I try to updat

TS:

This is my opinion of what I would have expected the price to be. It factors in a lot of things including my pricing model, injury

This is useful for spotting value if the TS price is compared to the actual BF price.

Comments:

Here I give all other info that I see as relevant. I show their most recent meeting including how many sets they played. Note if

To keep the comments as short as I can I will not show great detail in the stats. I check a lot of statistics for each match and fro

If I say a player is value, then basically I mean that they are expected to trade lower than their start price. That obviously does

I usually give my opinion of who will win the match but if I really don’t have a strong feeling towards either player then I will sa

I do this for every ATP and WTA match in the main draws. I will occasionally cover qualifying rounds if the number of main dra

Please take notice of ALL info in these emails. I can't write an essay on every match, so I have to be concise. When researching

If anything I write doesn't make sense to you please ask me about it. I can explain things a number of ways but can't put all ve

Also take notice of the TS price compared to the Betfair (BF) price as this is important in assessing the current value of the play

The most important trade is the first one. If you can get the entry right then trading is so much easier. That is what I am trying

For example, the start price of a favourite rarely gives good value. So, I may advise to back them if they get broken first. If we d
If they break back, we can hedge for level green on each player. Or we can lay the favourite with the same stake as we backed

I can't list advice for every scenario but if I get you a value entry trade then it makes your life that bit easier. By far the best wa

Confidence rating - This relates to the trading advice more than to the outright winner selection ( which is quite a recent additi
g based on my unique settings in the Oncourt stats software

decent prices quickly.

TOO concise people can miss some of the info that's included.

n’t clear. I was going to do this as a video blog but thought it might be a little confusing and a written post can more easily be referred to l

software gives an overall prediction for the match but I don’t always take much notice of this figure. I didn’t used to leave this figure in bu

icated in the WaS column, I don't expect the predicted winner to win in straight sets.

s. Alternatively, if the selected player loses set 1 we can lay the set winner in set 2. Then remove liability if our player takes a break lead in
out the morning, I try to update these as I add my comments.

uding my pricing model, injury concerns, fatigue concerns and my personal experience.

many sets they played. Note if I write “straight sets” then the match was best of 5 sets. If I wrote “3 sets” for this one it would give a false i

atistics for each match and from those I build an opinion on how the match will go. Remember I am also using the new Shark Tips selectio

art price. That obviously doesn’t necessarily mean that they will win the match but that I expect them to perform more strongly than the

ards either player then I will say so.

unds if the number of main draw matches is low but as liquidity is usually poor, I see little point in doing this very often.

be concise. When researching a match, I am trying to get a feel for how the match will go and that is what I try to get across in the emails.

er of ways but can't put all versions in the emails.

g the current value of the players price.

asier. That is what I am trying to guide you to with the Trading Advice email.

if they get broken first. If we do this, we are getting the stronger player at a much better price. This means we have more opportunities to
h the same stake as we backed with to leave a "free bet" on them. This means we have profit on the favourite and zero on the other player

at bit easier. By far the best way to limit losses is to get a strong entry price.

( which is quite a recent addition)

an more easily be referred to later.

used to leave this figure in but forgot to remove it a couple of times and was asked by a few people to leave it in as they DID find it useful

ur player takes a break lead in set 2.

this one it would give a false impression of it being a close match. In the same way if I write” 3 sets” then it was best of 3 sets.

ng the new Shark Tips selection process while building this opinion.

rform more strongly than the market price suggests. If we get a decent price move in our favour then it is advisable to reduce or remove o

try to get across in the emails.

we have more opportunities to take profit.

e and zero on the other player. I DO NOT recommend allowing a trade to run to the end of the match. Tennis matches can turn so quickly.
e it in as they DID find it useful.
was best of 3 sets.

dvisable to reduce or remove our liability.

s matches can turn so quickly. If you are wanting to let it run longer then at least lay off some or all of your liability on the other player. La
ability on the other player. Laying off part of the red/liability will improve your "break even" price. (ie the price where profit turns to loss.
ice where profit turns to loss. This allows you to stay in the trade longer but reduces the risk.