Meteorol. Appl. 9, 399–406 (2002) DOI:10.

1017/S1350482702004024

Areal PMP distribution of one-day to three-day

duration over India
C Clark & P R Rakhecha, Charldon Hill Research Station, Shute Lane, Bruton, Somerset,
BA10 0BJ, UK. e-mail: Colin4chrs@hotmail.com

There is a need to assess the areal depth of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) over specified
catchment areas for the safe construction of dam spillways. The large number of dams in India, coupled
with their risk of failure, makes this need imperative both for the maximum use of water resources and
for public safety. On the basis of rainfall data for the heaviest storms that occurred in different parts of
India during the period 1880–1983, improved estimates of one-, two-, and three-day point PMP for
India have been made. In this paper the distribution of areal PMP over specified catchment sizes is
provided for the first time. The areal reduction factors (ARF) were based on envelope curves of major
storms to give the ARF for areas of 10–20,000 km2 . These factors were found to vary from 1.0 to 0.41,
though there was no real difference between durations of rainfall. These values of ARF were then
multiplied by values of one- to three-day PMP. The resulting maps allow a broad description of the
spatial distribution of areal PMP and also provide a rapid and consistent estimate of the probable
maximum flood (PMF) from the PMP.

For 500 km2 the areal PMP varies from 40 to 120 cm for one-day duration; from 70 to 200 cm for two-
day duration; and from 75 to 270 cm for three-day duration. The pattern of PMP is consistent with the
geography and available moisture.

1. Introduction ticular locations (Central Board of Irrigation and

The PMP is defined as the greatest depth of precipita-
tion for a given duration that is physically possible for a
given size of storm at a particular geographical location
at a certain time of year (WMO 1986). We need to make
realistic estimates of PMP for the following reasons:
• The extreme rarity of a PMP event means that there
has almost certainly not been enough time in which
to sample a wide range of storm events.
• Increasing air temperature or global warming could
cause an increase in rainfall, especially at the extreme
end of the range, where a small increase in tempera-
ture leads to a relatively large increase in the precip-
itable water content of the atmosphere.
• A number of different methods of estimating PMP
are available, which introduces a degree of subjectiv-
ity into the assessment. This problem also extends to
the final choice of results. A consistent approach to
PMP estimation is therefore essential.
Recently, improved estimates of one-, two- and three-
day point PMP have been provided for the whole of
India (Rakhecha & Clark 1999a and 2000), and a
detailed atlas has also been published (Rakhecha &
Clark 1999b). The calculated PMP depths are consider-
ably higher than previous estimates obtained by statis-
tical methods (see, for example, IITM 1989) and at par-
Power 1993). If these results are indeed correct, or at
least closer to reality, then the design of future dam
spillways will have to incorporate a greater safety fac-
tor and existing dams will have to be reassessed for
their ability to safely contain the probable maximum
flood (PMF). The design standard of the Ukai and
Lakhwar dam spillways, for example, has been shown
to be less than half the value obtained when the revised
estimates of PMP are applied (Rakhecha & Clark 2002).
An attempt was made to verify the importance of the
revised values of PMP by computing the PMF for spec-
ified catchment areas (Rakhecha & Clark 2000) and
comparing the results with recorded floods in India.
The results were about 40% higher than the worst
recorded flood for catchment areas in the range of
300–90,000 km2.
Maps showing the areal distribution of catchment aver-
age PMP over specified areas have not been published
before. In this paper, the maps are used to:
• show how the pattern of areal PMP is related to the
geography and meteorology of the Indian sub-con-
tinent;
• identify those areas of India that are most vulnerable
to heavy rainfall and extreme floods; and
• promote greater environmental security in India
399
C Clark and P R Rakhecha
through the wider dissemination and application of
these results – a vital consideration given India’s need
to grow more food for its ever-expanding population.
2. Rainfall data and methodology
2.1 Rainfall data
Historic rainstorm data are available in published form
in several sources (Central Board of Irrigation and
Power 1993; Rakhecha & Pisharoty 1996). During the
mid-twentieth century there were over 3600 stations
recording daily rainfall. Each station therefore repre-
sents just over 900 km2, a figure which will vary
according to the local topography and relief. This
implies that the greatest depths which will occur over
smaller areas are unlikely to be measured.
From the maps given in Rakhecha et al. (1990) interpo-
lation between the monthly results was necessary. The
ratio of the precipitable water relating to these two val-
ues is then multiplied by the storm rainfall to give the
probable maximum precipitation. In some PMP studies
(for example, Forland & Kristoffersen 1989) an
allowance for the inflowing wind speed is also made,
but because of the non-availability of data, no
allowance for the enhancing effect of maximised wind-
speeds has been made here. This means that the final
PMP value could be even higher than those given in this
paper. On the other hand, apart from the Western
Ghats, the orographic effect on wind convergence and
velocity is likely to be small.
The in situ maximisation of storm rainfall cannot be
extrapolated to provide estimates of the likely PMP for
areas away from the storm location. Therefore, storms

Table 1 lists the dates of the 13 storms used in this

study, covering the period 1880–1983. Of these, 11
have been used by Rakhecha & Clark (1999a and 2000).
Figure 1 shows their location and Figure 2 the states of
India.

Table 1. Dates of storms used in this study

17–18 September 1880
28–30 July 1927
1–3 July 1930
1–3 July 1941
17–19 May 1943
3–5 October 1955
13–15 July 1965
27–29 July 1965
3–5 October 1968
18–20 July 1981
28–30 August 1982
20–22 June 1983
Figure 1. Location of the storms used in this study and the
threefold division of India (following Rakhecha et al. 1995).

2.2 Methodology for estimating PMP

In this study the storm transposition and maximisation
technique has been used to estimate PMP as described
in WMO (1986). For moisture maximisation the per-
sisting dewpoint during a storm is compared with the
maximum persisting dewpoint at the same location and
the same time of year. The maximum persisting dew-
point is based on data from 48 sites (Rakhecha et. al.
1990). At each of these sites the 24-hour maximum per-
sisting dewpoint was determined from the 20-year
record. The WMO (1986) manual suggests that from
such data the 50- or 100-year dewpoint should be
determined using frequency analysis. This approach
may be valid for temperate areas but could lead to
excessive moisture maximising factors. The highest
dewpoints were found to occur in August with values
up to 30º C in Orissa. In the maximising process a limit
of two weeks either side of the date of the storm was
used to determine the maximum persisting dewpoint. Figure 2. The states of India

400

have to be physically ‘moved’ or transposed to loca-
tions in order to close the gaps between rare events.
This procedure cannot be undertaken lightly because
the area to which a storm can be moved or transposed
must be meteorologically homogeneous with the
source area. In order to show that this assumption is
valid, historic storm tracks must be examined for their
similarity. In India, for example, consideration of the
meteorological features has allowed the land to be
divided into three homogeneous areas (Rakhecha et al.
1995). These areas are shown in Figure 1 together with
the location of the 13 storms used in this study.
The method of transposing storms is well known
(WMO 1986). The allowance for an increase in eleva-
tion is zero up to a height of 300 m, with an increase of
10% for each rise of 300 m thereafter. On the lee side
of hills a decrease of 5% was made for each 300 m
descent. These criteria are only a guide since the relief
and topography can vary over relatively short dis-
tances, meteorologically speaking: hence the final maps
are generalised. Within each of the three homogeneous
areas the highest estimate of PMP was adopted.
2.3 Factors affecting PMP distribution and the
resulting regionalisation of India
The distribution of extreme rainfall is considered in
terms of season and location. Heavy to very heavy rain-
fall is caused because of the penetration of cyclonic dis-
turbances which include monsoonal depressions, with
winds of 20–33 knots, and tropical storms, with winds
in excess of 33 knots, from the Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea. Each year an average of seven cyclonic
disturbances are generated in the summer monsoon
season (June to September) (Dhar & Nandargi 1993),
one in the pre-monsoon season (April to May), and
three in the post-monsoon season (October to
December). These disturbances cause heavy rain along
and near their tracks. The storm area may be 400 km
wide and 1000 km long, and point rainfall may range
from 40 to 80 cm per day.
There are three factors which influence the spatial dis-
tribution of PMP in India: distance from the sea, the
effect of relief, and latitude. All of these have an effect
on the precipitable water held within the column of air.
Clearly warm air will be able to hold a much greater
depth of water than cooler air. This occurs in southern
latitudes as a result of higher levels of global radiation.
As storms move inland the supply of moisture is
reduced, a fact noted by Rakhecha & Kennedy (1985).
The influence of relief is most marked near the coast
and its influence becomes diminished further inland.
Latitude has been shown to be highly correlated to 6-
hour PMP for data representative across the globe
(Clark 1997). India spans latitudes 8–37º N, and the
effect of latitude is quite obvious.
Areal PMP distribution in India
During the summer monsoon season the cyclonic dis-
turbances form over the Bay of Bengal, north of 18º N,
and move across the country. Heavy rainfall occurs in
the regions which are exposed to these moving depres-
sions. However, during the pre-monsoon and post-
monsoon months, tropical storms form to the south of
the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in latitudes 10–15º
N. These storms move inland and produce heavy to
very heavy rainfall in southern parts of India. Table 2
shows that most of the storms used in this study occur
in the summer monsoon period.
Table 2. Seasonal distribution of the storms studied
Pre-monsoon (April(May) 8%
Summer monsoon (June–September) 77%
Post-monsoon (October–December) 15%
The Western Ghats run parallel to the west coast. The
moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea give heavy
rain because of orographic enhancement. Heavy rain-
fall to the east of the Western Ghats comes from the
Bay of Bengal. The storm of July 1941 was centred on
the Western Ghats and was caused by a depression
from the Bay of Bengal. After arriving in central India,
winds from the Arabian Sea were sucked into the
storm. Its more southerly location justified its inclu-
sion in peninsular India when it came to transposition
and maximisation (Rakhecha & Clark 1999a). Hence,
following Rakhecha et al. (1995), India was divided into
three zones: east of 80º E and north of 18º N; west of
80º E and north of 18º N; and south of 18º N (see
Figure 1). Rakhecha & Kennedy (1985) go even further
and treat India as one region, but in this study proper
allowance was made for the meteorology of the sub-
continent. This is a mid-way position between others
(for example, Dhar & Nandargi 1993) who advocate
less widespread transposition limits. Since the 1941
storm was partly in regions 1 and 3 it was transposed to
both areas.
The cyclonic disturbances move north from the
Arabian Sea, and in the case of those originating over
the Bay of Bengal move in a northwesterly direction
across northern India. In doing so they are able to suck
in extra moist air from the monsoon in the Arabian Sea
through a clear passage over NW India across Gujarat.
The effect of cyclonic, convectional and orographic
uplift is apparent over peninsular India and this justifies
the sub-division of India into three regions. Within
these regions storms may be transposed.
Recently, evidence has shown that global average
temperature has risen by between 0.6 and 1.0º C
since 1900 (IPPC 1990). However, for India the
pattern of temperature change is much less clear and
there are areas which have had little or no increase in
temperature (Chattopadhyay & Hulme 1997).
Therefore, although the maximum persisting dew-
points may, in some areas of the world, increase in
401
C Clark and P R Rakhecha
the future, there is no convincing evidence for such an Table 3. Depth area data (three-day duration) for the
increase in India. two most serious storms in region 3 (Rakhecha et al.
1995), Indian peninsula
Area km2 100 1000 5000 10,000 20,000
2.4 Areal reduction factors Year of storm

In section 2.1 the problem of a sparse network of rain- 1943 95 91 73 61 49

stations was noted. In order to make up for this defi- 1965 57 45 30 27 23
Envelope 95 91 73 61 49
ciency, depth area analyses of the storms were carried
depths (cm)
out. Figure 3 shows the example of the 1943 storm; the
example of the 1955 storm can be found in Rakhecha & Point value (area = 10 km2) = 118 cm
Clark (1999a). Areal reduction 0.81 0.76 0.62 0.51 0.42
factors

Table 4. Areal reduction factors for the three regions of

India
Area (km2)
10 100 1000 5000 10,000 20,000
Region 1 1.0 0.77 0.72 0.62 0.55 0.46
Figure 3. Depth area analysis for the 1943 storm. Region 2 1.0 0.81 0.65 0.53 0.47 0.41
Region 3 1.0 0.81 0.76 0.62 0.51 0.42

In order to estimate the areal distribution of PMP, areal

reduction factors were calculated from the most severe
rain storms in each of the three homogeneous areas of
India. This implies that the highest rainfall for a given
area could occur at the same time as the highest depth
at a different area during the same storm. This assump-
tion was made only once because the highest rain
depths in all areas were produced during a single storm
event, a fact which applied to durations of one, two and
three days.
The envelope rainfall depths and areal reduction factors
for region 3 are given in Table 3. These are the recorded
values, with no maximisation or transposition. From
these data the ratio of point rainfall (taken as represent-
ing an area of 10 km2) to rainfall of a given area can be
calculated. The areal reduction factors for all three
regions are given in Table 4. When applied to point
PMP rainfall in each region for different durations,
areal average PMP rainfall can be obtained. Figures
4–15 show the distribution of one-, two- and three-day
PMP over 500, 1000, 5000, and 10,000 km2.
The areal PMP maps were produced at a resolution of
160 km × 160 km, giving a grid of 1º longitude and 1º
10′ latitude in central India. Where the areal reduction
factors change at the boundary of regions 1 and 3, some
smoothing of the isolines was necessary.
3. Distribution of areal PMP
3.1 One-day PMP
The distribution of one-day PMP for an area of 500 km2
(1D500 km2) is shown in Figure 4. In the Western Ghats
the PMP value reaches 120 cm, and similar values are
obtained in eastern India which includes some of the
wettest known areas of the world. Over peninsular
India the value of 1D500 km2 is about 55 cm, an area
noted for its relatively low 24-hour maximum persist-
ing dewpoints (Rakhecha et al 1990). Towards the east
coast the values increase, though not as rapidly as at the
west coast, to over 110 cm in Andhra Pradesh. In the
eastern region of India, the combined effect of relief
and closer proximity to the coast gives values in excess
of 120 cm.
In region 3 the PMP for 1000 km2 (Figure 5) over the
Western Ghats in Maharashtra and Karnataka states is
covered by the 120 cm isoline but its areal extent is
reduced in size, while the values for peninsular India
fall by 5 cm. Meanwhile, over northern and eastern
India the PMP value is reduced by the same amount.
There are further reductions of PMP for an area of 5000
km2 (1D5000 km2). In the Western Ghats the value
declines to 85 cm while for peninsular India the value is
40 cm (Figure 6). There is an even greater relative
decline in PMP for northern India. For example, in
parts of Uttar Pradesh 1D5000 km2 PMP is only 10 cm
less than that for 1D1000 km2. In eastern India the rel-
ative decline in PMP is less, which is a reflection of the
lower latitude and its position relative to the Bay of
Bengal. The distribution of the one-day PMP over an
area of 10,000 km2 (1D104 km2) (Figure 7) shows the
same pattern as for the smaller areas. Further reduc-
tions in the areal average rainfall are apparent.
However, in the Western Ghats the values reach 80 cm,
which is 40 cm less than the 1D500 km2 value.

402

3.2 Two-day PMP
Typically monsoonal rainfall lasts for several days, and
unlike temperate latitude rainfall there is not such a
pronounced reduction in rainfall intensity. Therefore
in the Western Ghats and peninsular India, two-day
PMP over 500 km2 (2D500 km2) is 25 cm greater than
1D500 km2 (Figure 8). In eastern India the increase in
depth ranges from 70 to 85 cm. This variation in the
increase of two-day PMP over one-day PMP is largely
influenced by the storm dataset and subsequently max-
imised rainfall, where the 1968 storm event was marked
by a slow decline in rainfall depth from one to two
days. Rainfall over northern India ranges from 70 to
100 cm, although the values for Kashmir are less certain
because of its distance from both the 1955 and 1880
storms. Over southern Rajasthan 2D500 km2 is almost
as high as that for the Western Ghats. This is because of
the influence on the disturbances of the extra supply of
Figure 4. Areal distribution of one-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 500 km2.
Figure 6. Areal distribution of one-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 5000 km2.
Areal PMP distribution in India
moist air from the Arabian Sea moving to the NE.
Although Central Rajasthan has a value of 85 cm, fur-
ther west the estimates of PMP are much less reliable
and its return period may also be considerably higher
than for locations in both the south and east.
The distribution of 2D1000 km2 shows only a slight
reduction in values when compared with 2D500 km2
(Figure 9). The most rapid changes in PMP are in the
west where the effect of relief is most apparent and
towards the east where the diminution of the moisture
supply is the dominant factor. Elsewhere PMP values
change relatively slowly. The decline of areal rainfall
between 1000 and 5000 km2 is more marked than that
between 500 and 1000 km2. Values for 2D5000 km2
(Figure 10) range from 110 cm over the Western Ghats
to 50 cm in peninsular India and Kashmir. The domi-
nant tracks of monsoonal depressions over Orissa tend
to produce higher values along the coast than in more
Figure 5. Areal distribution of one-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 1000 km2.
Figure 7. Areal distribution of one-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 10,000 km2.
403
C Clark and P R Rakhecha
southern latitudes, an observation which runs contrary
to the global trend of decreasing PMP with increasing
latitude. Clark (1997) Whether this result is solely an
effect of the distribution of the storms considered here
is unclear, but it does reflect the distribution of maxi-
mum persisting dewpoints which are based upon a bet-
ter dataset than the historic storms which are fewer in
number because of their rarity.
The distribution of 2D104 km2 (Figure 11) shows the
same pattern though with only a small drop in absolute
values as compared with 2D5000 km2. The largest dif-
ferences between one- and two-day PMP for 10,000
km2 are in the east where, once again, the influence of
the historic storms becomes apparent. Elsewhere there
are only minor increases in PMP.
Figure 8. Areal distribution of two-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 500 km2.
Figure 10. Areal distribution of two-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 5000 km2.
404
3.3 Three-day PMP
The long duration of monsoonal storm rains is
reflected in the distribution and magnitude of three-
day PMP. There are large increases in PMP over those
of two-day duration in the Western Ghats for all areas
(Figures 12–15). Furthermore, a value of 225 cm is
exceeded over the coasts of Andhya Pradesh and
Orissa, which is a reflection of the fact that heavy rain-
fall lasts for two to three days. Further inland the deep
penetration of three-day events into northern India is
hardly noticed, which suggests that this process is only
short-lived, though important nevertheless.
For three-day PMP over an area of 1000 km2 (3D1000
km2) values over the Western Ghats are about the same
as those on the east coast, although they do not match
the very high values in Assam and adjoining areas.
Figure 9. Areal distribution of two-day PMP (cm) for an area
of 1000 km2.
Figure 11. Areal distribution of two-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 10,000 km2.

Relatively minor increases are found over northern
India for reasons already given.
The distribution of three-day PMP over 5000 km2 and
10,000 km2 appears to follow the previous patterns. The
dominance of values in the east coast over those of the
west coast is apparent. There are only modest reduc-
tions in the areal average rainfall over northern India.
4. Implications for dam safety
Estimation of PMP is of considerable importance to
hydrologists and design engineers when estimating the
probable maximum flood for dam spillways. There have
been dam failures in many parts of the world as a result
of the underestimation of the design flood. Examples
include the Briseis Dam in Australia on 4 April 1929;
the Euclides da Cunha Dam in Brazil on 19 January
Figure 12. Areal distribution of three-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 500 km2.
Figure 14. Areal distribution of three-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 5000 km2.
Areal PMP distribution in India
1977; the Gibson Dam in the United States on 8 June
1964; and the Machhu Dam in India on 11 August 1979.
The design flood of the Machhu Dam had been revised
upwards twice before its completion but even that was
not enough to avoid catastrophic dam failure.
In view of the widespread occurrence of dam failures
and the imprecise nature of PMP estimates, uncertainty
will always surround new estimates – can they ever
produce a completely safe design in relation to the
PMF or are their values simply too high or even too
low? There are several reasons for believing that they
are safer than the existing estimates. These include the
more liberal transposition of storm events from their
actual location; the use of envelope curves for areal esti-
mation of rainfall; and an allowance for the spacing of
raingauges via depth area analyses. However, to be
even more certain that these estimates of PMP can pro-
vide a safe design, more work should be carried out on
Figure 13. Areal distribution of three-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 1000 km2.
Figure 15. Areal distribution of three-day PMP (cm) for an
area of 10,000 km2.
405
C Clark and P R Rakhecha
the estimation of historical flood events, the effects of
future land use changes, a better estimation of the per-
centage runoff from storm events, and the use of the
most severe storm profiles in the calculation of the
PMF. Because of the uncertainty of both future meteo-
rological and other environmental conditions, the stan-
dards of PMP as laid down in this paper should be
regarded as a minimum. The well-known adage ‘discre-
tion is the better part of valour’ should be heeded when
the design flood is being estimated.
5. Discussion
Dams will continue to play a vital part in India’s econ-
omy. With a rapidly growing population, coupled with
its monsoonal climate, the need for regional water man-
agement will increase. Although much has been written
about the climate of India, the sample of storms and
length of records is tiny in comparison with the return
period of PMP. As the number of people who are at
risk from the consequences of dam failure grows, the
standard of safety at dam sites must be improved. At
present overdesign is not a feature of dams in India:
there is a reluctance to accept that, over time, a greater
fraction of climate variability will be sampled which
will lead to an increase in the estimate of PMP.
The results presented in this paper are a step towards
assessing the design spillway of future dams for the
whole of India and for a reassessment of those already
in existence. The results presented here are broadly
similar to those presented for NW India (Rakhecha &
Mandal 1993), but are higher than estimates derived by
statistical methods. The WMO manual (1986) is quite
clear about the use of statistical methods, namely that
they are not considered to be as reliable as those
obtained by meteorological procedures and that the
results should only be used in a supportive role. The
people of India will need a greater supply of water for
both irrigation and power in the future. The dams
should be fully protected from the possibility of being
overtopped in a major flood. All too often design stan-
dards seem to lag behind knowledge of the events that
engineers are trying to predict. It is the authors’ hope
that this work will produce greater environmental
security for the growing population of India.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the referees who
enabled them to improve an earlier draft of the paper.
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