Review
Predictive food
microbiology
Robert L. Buchanan
The need to assure the microbiological safety and quality of
increasingly complex food products has stimulated interest in
the use of mathematical modeling to quantify and predict
microbial behavior. During the past several years there has
been substantial advancemenl in both the concepts ann
methods used in predictive microbiology. Coupled with 'user-
friendly' apolicagans sol,ware and the development of expert
systems, lhese models are providing powerful new tools for
rapidly est~maling the effects of tormulalion and slorage
factors on the microbiological relations in foods.
During the past 5-8 years, there has been a dramatic
increase in research on the development of mathemat-
ical models that describe how microorganisms behave
in foods. Activity and interest in this area, which has
been termed "predictive microbiology', has been so
widespread that it is now one of the most rapidly
advancing of the sub-specialties in food microbiology.
This interest has been worldwide, with scientists estab-
lishing international collaborative efforts to share the
ideas, concepts, mathematical techniques and databases
that are needed to generate and validate new, ,more
effective models. The scope of thin ell'Off was readily
apparent at the recent qntemationat workshop on the
application of predictive microbiology and computer
modeling to the food industry" organized under the aus-
pices of the Society for Industrial Microbiology I 12-15
April 1992, Tampa. FL. USAI. This conference, which
brought together microbiologists, food scientists, math-
ematicians, engineers and statisticians from 15 countries,
demonstrated the rate at which this part of food micro-
biology is maturing and gaining acceptance. The purpose
of this Review is to provide an overview of the major
thrusts and applications of predictive microbiology, and
to emphasize the need for continuing international
collaboration.
Historically. food microbiology has always been an
a,:tive area tbr mathematical modeling, though often
food miccobiologists do not full3 appreciate that a num-
ber of the techniques they routinely use are a form of
predictive microbiology. A pertinent example is the
Rele~er~eto a brandor firmnamedoes no4coe61ltuteelxk~emen~I~, the
US Departmentol Agricultureoverothersol a ~lmllatnaturenot menhoned.
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Red.tonal Research Cemer. US Departn~nl ot ARrlcuhure, AgflCUIIUTaI means of classifying models based on either the micro-
Re,~earch5er~~ce,~niladdehta,PA19118 USA
6 Tronds in Food Science & T.~.hnology January 1993 [VoL 4}
calculation of thermal resistances and process time~
These mathematical techniques have become so in-
grained thal few food microbiologists give a second
thought to the fact that when they calculate or discuss
D-values, Z-values and F-values. they are employing a
linear mathematical model to describe the exponential
inactivation of bacteria.
There are a number of reasons why there has been a
recent re-emergence of mathematical modeling of
microbiological relations in foods, with three being par-
ticularly pertinent.
( I l The first is the ready avadability of powerful micro-
computers. The presence of such computers on most
scientists" desks, and the accompanying increased
awareness of practical mathematics that comes from
working with software has stimulated exploration into
potential microbiological applications.
(2) The second has been the consumers" preference for
"fresher. less processed' foods. This has resulted in
the development of sophisticated multiple-barrier food
preservation systems in which a combination of factors,
no one of which is sufficient by itself, is used to delay
microbiological spoilage. Therefore, there is a need to
quantify the effects of each of the factors contributing
to the total microbiological integrity of the product.
The use of hazard analysis and critical control point
(HACCP) as a safety management tool, with its require-
ment for setting critical limits for key stages of product
handling, has reinforced the need for effective models.
Without such models, it becomes difficult to deal quan-
titatively with interactions among multiple factors.
(3) The third is the realization that it would he virtually
impossible, both scientifically and economically, to
have quantitative microbiological information on the
hundreds of different variations of each of the thoasaads
of different foods and food ingredients that are present
in international commerce. However, it is precisely this
quaotitative &aa on the behavior of pathogenic micro-
organisms that is needed to make informed decisions
about the safety of food products. This limitation is
being offset by the realization that there are a limited
number of key factors that accouni for most of the
behavior of microorganisms in food systems. Through
systematic quantification and understanding of the
impact of these factors in model systems and prototype
producLs, it is possible to generate effective model~ that
can estimate microbial behavior in a range of products.
These models can subsequendy provide industry with
an important means of making objective initial assess-
ments to establish priorities in relation to both product
design and evaluation. Likewise, such priority-seEing
techniques are critical if rcgulato.'3, agencies are to adopt
risk-basod inspection systems.
Within predictive microbiology, there are several
biological event studied, the modeling approach
 11-
10-
employed, or the number or type of 9 ................................ : 7 ...........................
variables considered. Models can he
classified broadly on the basis of 8
whether they de~rihe microbial 7
growth or inactivation: with the excep-
tion of models of thermal inactivation. 6 t' /~ IC
models for microbial growth are gener- ~=~ 5 A
ally more advanced than those for inac+
tivation. Models are also categorized ~ 4
based on the mathematical approach 3
used. with the two primary types being
prohability-hased and kinetics-bared 2 !
models. Models can also he differen-
I - . ......................................... ~Y+ . . . . . . . . . . .
tiated on the ba,.is of whether they are
mechanisnc or empirical. While it is 0
generally considered that mechanistic
models are inherenll3~ ,.uperior, most of - 1
the successful models currently avail- -2 I I I I I
able are empirical, Time (hours}
Recently. we proposed an addntional
classification of models as primary, sec- Fig. t
onda W or tertiary, based on the types of Parameters as~,ooatedwfth the Go~Jpertzequation. Seetext tot ~e~mt~on~o~p~-r~-~r~
variables being descrihedL Primary
models are mathematical expressions
that define growth or survivor curves describing the L, = A + Cexp{-exp[ B( t ~ M l] }
response of an organism over time to a specific set of cul-
taral conditions. Secondary models describe the impact of where L, is log+,+ of the comet of hacterla (number ol
cultural and environmental variables on organism glowth colony-forming units, cful at time t (in hourst; A i:~ the
or survival characteristics. Using thermal processing as asymptotic log count as time decrease~ indefinitely
an example, a survivor curve u ~ d to ~alculate D-values (approximately equivalent IO the log of the initial level
is a primary model, while a thermal death-time curve of bacteria): C is the_ a.~ymptotic log count a~ titt,~
used to calculate Z-values would be a seconda,'3' model. increases indefinite~ (approximately eqnivalera 1o the
The term tertiary model is used to describe the incorpor- log of the maximum population density during the
ation of primary, secondary, or combinations of primary stationary growth phase minus the log of the initial
and secondary models imo application programs and counll: M is the time at vAlich the absolute gro~TJ1 rate
expert systems. Examples of each of the different types of is maximal: and B is the relative growth rate at time M
models are imroduced below. (Fig. I ). h ha.,; been the mo~t widely used of the sig-
moidal functions, with characterislics particularly n~fttl
Malhemafcal modeling of microbial growth curves to food microbiologists; +.
One of the key breakthroughs thai has. allowed predic- Upon first glmme, the equation ~eras complex.
ave food microbiology to progress rapidly during the Hov, e~er. the four parameter~ can readily be related
past several year~ h&s been the identification of effective mathematically to cultural charactertsric~ familiar to
primary models for describing microbial growth eurve~ microbiologists:
in model systems and foods. These models have permit- I1 = BClexp{ I )
ted growth cur~es to be described objectively ,ts math- GT = [log,+,(21[[exp~ I )IBCI
ematical expressions, an attribute that is critical to the A=M-{IIB)
development of secondary nmdels of microbial growth MPD=A+C
kinetics. Of pu.'licular importauee has been the use of
various sigmoidal relationships, such a.s the logistics and where g is the exponential growth rate [|log(cfu/g(l!h [:
Gompertz curves. While these relationships have been GT is the gepe;,mon time (hi: ~- i, the la~ pl~,~e
used previously to de.scrihe other biological processes, it daratioa (h) and MPD is the log of the maximum
wasn't until the late 1980s that a research ~team from the population dePa,ity [Iog#cfu/gtl. The Gompurtz equation
AFRC Institute of Food Reseamh in the UK introduced can al,x, be repurameten2ed to use data provided in the
food microbiologists to their potential as a means of form of growth rates and lag p h a ~ durations"
describing microbial growth-'. Since their introduction. Coupled with good cufVc-fitting softwal~, the
these equations have rapidly changed the way food Gompertz equation is easy to use_ For example, our lab-
microbiologists analyse quantitative growth kinetics dam_ oratory employs an iterative, noediuear regres:,,ion pro-
The Gomportz equation is a font-parameter double- gram in conjm~tion with a nfinicomputer to fit exper-
exponential function that describes an asymmetrical sig- imental data_ While s o t ~ experience and judgement are
moidal curve: needed to optimize cur',e-fitting rtmtmes. ~ e have fom,al

Trends m Food S(ience & Technok)gy ~nu~m t993 IVan.41

dmt urn- |=chnical staff quickly adapted to this approach.
Once trained, an investigator takes - 3 0 s to generate a
growth curve from a set ofexperimcotal data.
In addition to the specific applications of sigmoidal
models for describing growth relations, the introduction
of these equations has stimulated a great deal of activity
in relation to defining or describing microbial relations.
For exampk., it was a direct result of the availability of
these sigmoidal kinetics that stimulmed us to postulate a
mathematical approach for defining and calculating the
duration of the lag and exponential growth phases s ~.
Likewise, there has been rene~ved interest in the devel-
opmcot of new approaches for describing growth under
constant or changing coodilions ~-9.
Modeling the effects of ¢uilural and environmental
cond'diom on r~owt5
The growth of microorganisms in food systems is
dependent on the effects of (and at times interactions
among) multiple variables. Examples of factcrs that
influence microbial growth kinetics include temperature.
pH, acidulant identity, water activity, humectant ident-
ity. absorpfion and desorptiou isotherms, oxygen avail-
ability, carbon dioxide levels, redox potential, nulrient
content and availability, and the presence of antimicro-
bials. Traditional food preservation techniques typically
involve manipulating one of these parameters so that it
is outside the range that supporls the growth of most
foodbome species. For example, increasing the salt con-
tent of foods to greater than 5% retards the growth of
many G~m-negarive foodborne bacteria, including a
number of pathogens. As consumers have demanded
foods that are closer to being fresh, products are being
developed that rely on packaging with multiple barriers
to affect several of the factors that influence microbial
growth. Typically, no single variable is altered to such
an extent that it is sufficient by itself to control
microbial growth. Instead, manipulating multiple
variables to a smaller degree produces a total impact
that is sufficient to prevent growth. It is readily apparen!
that a large number of combinations of various variables
could be effective. The availability of good models that
integrate the effects of pertinent variables almost
becomes a requirement for the cost-effective design and
production o f such products.
Two major approaches, probabdity-hased models and
kine',ies-based models, have been used to describe the
impact of various cultural and environmental factors on
the growth of foodborne bacteria. The choice of
approach and the specific application within an
approach are largely determined by the type of micro-
organism and the number of variables. Typically.
p r o b a b i l i t y - b ' ~ models have been employed with
spore-forming bacteria, while kinetics-based models
have been used with non-spore-forming species.
t~a~alxli~-bas~modds
Most probability-basod modeling has used the general
approach of Hansehild "~. who estimated the probability
that a single spore of CIostridium botulinum would
germinate and produce toxin in a food. This approach
helps take into account the strong effect that cultural
conditions have on the germination o f bacterial spores.
For example, Montville" reported that almost all
C botulinum spores germinated in a medium with no
added NaCI and at pH 7.0. whereas only 1/100000
spores germinated when 2% NaCI was presented and at
pH 5.5. Various investigators ~-"~ have systematically
estimated the effects and interactions of multiple vari-
ables on the probability of germination and growth ot
C botulinum. Regression analysis is used to model the
individual contributions of the ~afiables. More recently,
investigators have incorporated terms that allow esti-
mation of the probability of when a naerobiological
event will occur. For example, Gcoigeorgis et al. ts
modeled the effects of temperature, inoculum size and
percentage brine on the duration of the lag period before
toxigenesis for non-proteolytic C butulinum types B
and E in cooked turkey:
loglo(LP~ = 0.625 + 6.71 ( liT ) + O.OOOSIT
-O033T+O.IO2B-O.1021
where LP is the lag to toxigcoesis (days); T is the tem-
perature (°C): I is the inoculum size (log~. of the num-
bar of spores) and B is the percentage brine. The model
provided reasonable agreement with experimenlally
derived data. Another group, also working with non-
proleolytic C bondinum, recently developed a new
primary model that incorporates terms for both time and
the relative extent of germination:
P , = P ~ , I ( I + e~'~"l
where t is the time (days): P, is the probability of growth
at time t: PmJ~ is the maximum probability of growth
over the entire storage period: k is the rate constant
(days t): and I" is the time to ProJ 2 (Whiting. R.C. and
Call. J.E.. submiUed). This approach was subsequently
used to develop a probability-based model of the effects
of temperature, pH and NaCI concentration on the time
to toxigencs;s.
Kinetics-based models
The secoud broad approach is the development of
models that mathematically describe the effects of
cultural and environmental conditions on a micro-
organism's growth kinetics, particularly lag-phase
durations and generation times. These can be modeled
either directly or using mathematical functions ~nch as
the parameters of the Gompertz equation. The complex-
ity of the models required varies with the ouml~ , : and
independence of the variables being considered
simuhanecJsly, While the growth of a microorganism
in a food system i.-, potentially dependent on the
interaction of a ranoe of vatinbles, for many products
growth is overwhelmingly dependent on a single vari-
able. In such instances, it is generally storage tempera-
ture that is the most important factor controlling micro-
biological growth. It is not surprising that a substantial
amount of modeling research has concentrated on this
variable.
Trends m Food Soence & Tet~noiogy Janua~, 1993 [Vo]. ,.
 Typically, modeling the impact of tcmp~wature using a
simple Arrhenius equation is only accurate for a portion
of an organism's temperature range. However. modifi-
cations of this approach, a.s well a.~ other explicit
equations, have been effective. The three m ~ t studied
have been the "non-linear Ardtenius-Schoolfield"
equation-" 22. the 'linear Arrhenius-Davey" equation :~ -'~
and the 'square root" ('Ratkowsky-Belaradek'~
mt~lels z, z~. The Schoolfield equation and related nonlinear
An'henius models were developed to eohance the basic
Arrenhius model to achieve belief fits at the extremes of
organisms' temperature ranges. While reasonably effec-
live, this six-parameter equation is complex and its u ~
can he cumbersome,
The "square root' equation is probably the most stud-
ied and widely used of the simple models for the effects
of temperature on microbial growth, Below the micro-
organism's optimum growth temperature, the square
root of the growth rate constant (RI'-~ and the reciprocal
of the lag phase duration, g (h127 are linearly related to
temperature according to the following relationships:
IRI°~ = b ~ T - T~,,t
(1/2) ° ' : b q T - T ~ . )
where b is the slope of the regregsion line: T is the
incubation leraperature (K): and T~,, is the notional
minimal growth temperature tK). which is derived
by extrapolating the linear regression line to zero. As
incubation teraperatures increase abo'.e an organisra's
optimum growth temperature, growth rates begin to
decline. Ratkowsky et al.'-" subsequently expanded their
model Io include a term that took into account this
depression of growth rate:
( R ) "s = h(T- T~)(I-e"r ~,,)
where T ~ , is the notional maximal growth temperature
IK) and c is a coustant. This empirical secondary model
has been shown by a number of investigators to he
effective for estimating the effects of diffemot constant
storage temperatures on the grov, th of variety of
microorganisms in foeds and model systems -~ ~. One of
the clear advantages of this model is its simplicity, both
in relation to generating models and sobseqnem appli-
cations. If one limiLs the temperature range to less than the
optimum range for an organism's growlh, the model can
be generated with simple linear regression techniques.
Zwictering et al. ~ investigated the effectiveness of
.several models for desclibing the effect of temparatum
on the growth kinc:~-~ of Lm'tobacillus plantanmL an
organism for which they had a large databa~se of exper-
imental values. They con=luded that two reparamcteriz-
ations of the "square root" equation were the nmst
effective for modeling growth rates and maximum popu-
lation densities, both in terms of fit and ease of use.
However. they concluded that the effect on the lag
phase was bettor described by a hyperbolic function:
In(2) = pl(T~l)
where ). is the lag phase duration (h): T is the tempera-
ture (K): p is a w d m e t e r that accounts for the decrca,se
Treoxlsin Food Science& TechnologyJanuary lq93 IVoL 4i
in lag phasc duration a:s ~mpemture is ;r~cre~l: and q
is the temperature (K} at which lag phase is infinite.
Zwietering et aL ~ used these three equatkms to develop
a m~lei for predicting tile grog,,, cu,~,e for L. plun-
lotion over its entire temperature range.
A third empirical equatkm used incre0_singly it, model
the effect of incubation temperatures Is *he linear
Arrhenius-Davey equation"~:
Inlkl : C, + C~IT+ C:/T:
where k is the growth rate con,taut: T is the temperature
(KI: ,rid C,. C , and (7- are coefficients to b : determi~'d_
This equation can al,~ be used to model t:~e effect of
temperature on the reciprocal of the lag phase durationz~:
Inl I/£1 = C~j- C J T + CzlT z
The three c0¢fficienLs as~,ociated with the equatkm call
he generated readily using nonlinear regressltm tech-
niques to produce the best-fit curve. Studying tbe
growth of Li.swria mono¢7,~oget~g~ on refrigerated heel.
Grau and Vanderlinde '~ compared the Davey ,and
Ratkowsky models and found that both were effective,
The above models were developed based on exper-
imental data from cultures main1~fined at coustam tem-
peratures. Sul~itantially less modeling has been done on
the effects of fluctuating ~oragc temperatures, though
this is currently a ve~: active area of res~a~h_
Blankenship et a/_ ~ used a mothfication of the -square
root" equation to model ~ eft~'ts of cooling ~-hedule~
on the grov,~th kineric..g of CIosrridium pe_rfn'ngens in a
cooked meat product (thrill More recently, van Impe
et al. x presented a dynamic model based on a differen-
tial equation that corabines the Gompert7 equation, the
Ratkow~.ky equation and a term to account for the tran-
sition to inactivation when a micmor~mism is s h i f l d lo
an adverse elevated temperature.
When more than one variable h ~ m be con~sidered to
predict tile growth rate of a foodborne m i c r o o r ~ b , m .
the type of model employed is depen&mt on the onmher
and independence of the variables. If temprratme and
another variable are indepeq~lent of each other, modifi-
catiore, of ~ Ratko~-sky and D'zvey cquari~,, are
effective. For example, M~:Meekin et al. 4 s(1Khcd the
combined effects of water activity {a.: waran~terizcd as
NaCI concentration) and temlm'ature on the growth of
Staphyloc~'cns .B_'IoslLs. ~ e y found that at each a~
te~ted, the relationship between growth rate
temperature (below the optimum growlh tempermme)
could be de:.~ribed by the "sqtEare roe4" model, with T~=
remaining conMant. The combined eff¢cLg of the two
variables could he described by a ~imple raulipiicati~e
expreg~ion:
Chandler and McMeekm :s o l ~ i n o d similar results when
the a~ of S..V.t ." t~s calrare~ was adjusted using glycerol.
and concluded that the slope arid a , ~ but not T ~
varied with the ide'mi~, of the hmB~lanL Adams et al. ~
examined the combined effects of pH and gubopt/mal
t~ures on the growth kinetics of Yer3inia
entervcolitica. They found that the tv.,o variables were
independent and could be expressed as:
I~ ~ = b ( T - T~,.)(pH - pH,.,J ~s
The notional pH,,, was dependent on the identity and
concentration of the acidulant, and would likely be
influenced by the buffering capacity of a food system.
Davey ~'~'-'4pro~ ided an expanded version of his equation
that examined the combined effects of temperature and
water activity:
In(k) = Co + C J 7 + ( ' I T ' - + C~a~ + CAnal:
Grau and Vanderlinde TM used multiplicative expansmn
of both the Ratkowsky and Davey equations to model
the effects of temperature and pH on the growth of
l . tnollot.ytot~ell¢S on beef tissue.
While it is assumed that additional variables could be
included u~ing the above approach, response-surface
techniques have been the primary method lbr develop-
ing models for more complex foods that are dependent
on four, five or more primary variables, particularly if
the variables are interactive, This approach employs
regression analysis techniques to generate the best-fit,
multidimensional response-surface equations that de-
scribe the effects and interactions of the experlmemal
variables. Investigators have successfully employed
this empirical approach to develop four- or five-
variable models for a number of foodbome pathogens.
including C boadinum'-, Salmonella spp. ~, Li~teria InollO-
t~vtog~'ttes4t. Aeromonas hydrophila ~24~, Shigella.flt~wwri 4.,
Y. enteroeolitica ~'~ Sttq~hv/otv~t'c#ts attreus and K~t'hetichia
tYdi 0157:H7 (Buchanan, R,L. et oL, submitted).
Modelingmicrobialinactivation
Them is an extensive knowledge base on the thermal
inactivation of microorganisms in foods, including a
number of effective empirical and mechanistic models
However, there is surprisingly little systematic data on
the non-thermal inactivation of bacteria resulting from
the manipulation of other f~od formulation parameters,
such as pH. water activity or the presence of anti-
microhials. Parish and Higgins~a reported that when L.
moaocylogt,l~e,~ was placed in orange serum adjusted to
pH 3.6-4.8, the lag period before the initiation of inacti-
vation was linearly related to pH, and could be modeled
accordingly. Also using L. moplocytogeue,v, oar labora-
tory (Buchanan et a/., submitted) lkmnd that in a micro-
biological medium adjusted to a pH _<5.5 with HCI. the
time to achieve a '4-D' ( IO~-Ibldt inactivation (t~ i~) was
linearly related to pH and could be described by:
t ~ I~ = nfl pH - pH.)
where nl is the slope of the regression line and pH. is
the notional pH for instantaneous inactivation based on
extrapolating the regres~ioo line to t = B. The values
obtained Ibr m and pH, were 197,3 and 2.67, respectively.
The efl¢cl of two nlootx:arboxylic acids tlar'tic acid
and acetic acid) on the inactivation of L. monocvmgenes
was also determined (Buchanan el aL, submitted). We
lound that the rate of inactivation was dependent on the
identity of the organic acid, it,: el,ncemration, and the
pH of the system The logarithm of t4 ~, was found to be
linearly related to the square mot of the concentration of
undissociatod acid. This allowed the development of the
following equation:
[ ~ .0.[ [ Tlex~l(pH-pK)12,303] ~."' + . I I
where, lot each acid. T is the total concentration (mM)
of organic acid; m is the slope of the regresMon line; and
h is the y-intercept of the regression line. Additional work
on the developmem of response-surface models t~ar the
effects of multiple variables on the nou-thermal inacti-
vation of L monocytogenes and Salnumella (vphi-
murimn are curremly being completed 47,
Applications
Once models have been developed and validated, a
key to their successful use is reducing their operation to
a 'user-friendly' form. The widespread availability of
microcomputers that has helped stimulate interest in
microbial modeling is also an important tool in devel-
oping such 'user-friendly' applications. For example,
our laboratory hm; developed application software
to demonstrate the potentiai usefulness of predictive
microbiological approaches 4~. The program, which is
currently in its fourth version, automates the use of
available response-surface models for the effects of
storage temperature, initial pH. NaCI content (a~), so-
dium nitrite concentration and oxygen availability on the
growth of foodbome pathogens, including Sahltonella
spp?", L tllonoeytogent',~ 'Jr, A, hydJwphila 4z'4~. S. aurora
(Buchanan el td., submitted), E. t'o/i 0157:H7
(Buchanan et al., submitted) and S. flexneri ~4. The soft-
ware has been distributed extensively to industry, gov-
ernment and academia, and is being used to provide
'first estimates" of the behavior of pathogens in food. for
applications in both designing and evaluating products.
Like'wise. the software has proved to be a useful tool for
teaching t~od microbiology.
As available knowledge of microbiological modeling
and apphcations approaches becomes more extensive,
the simplicity, flexibility and usefulness of application
software will be enhanced significantly. One of the
approaches thin will be particularly important is the use
of "expert systems'. This computer modeling technique
Ibrmalizes the thinking processes of experts in a held
such as food microbiology, coupling this with objective
tools such as mathematical modeling. This permits the
usel of the system to have available for immediate use
both nhjective predictors and the experience of experts.
Several corporations are currently developing im-
pressive expert systems Ibr assessing microbiological
relations within [o(KI products. Likewise. the UK
Ministry of Agriculture. Fisheries and Food has devel-
oped and recently gone online with "Food MicromodeF,
an extensive expert system/database for food microbiol-
ogy. While the database is physically located in the UK,
subscribers can interface with the computer via the tele-
phone to query the system frmn anywhere in the world,
Trends m Food Science & Technology January 1993 IVol, 41
C o n c l u d i n g remarks
There is a great deal of excitement among researchers
in predictive microbiology in relation to the future. New
techniques and findit,gs am being reported almost weekly.
and this is likely to accelerate as a developing inter-
national network of scientists begin to collaborate and
share dmabases. It ~ e m s reasonable to predict that the
next five years will see the introduction of increasingly
more comprehensive computer-based models and expert
systems. This should he enhanee,t by the introduction of
dynamic modehng techniques similar to those employed
by engineers to study processing operations. Ultimately,
it should be possible to produce an integrated dynamic
model that could follow the microbiological impact of
each of the different steps associated with the pro-
duction, distribution and retailing of a food. Such a tool
would be an obvious benefit to efforts to introduce and
operate HACCP-based food safety systems.
One of the factors that has enhanced the rapid devel-
opment of predictive microbiology has been :he high
degree of international cooperation among researchers.
This is going to become even more critical as models
are expanded to include additional variables. Data col-
lection becomes a limiting factor when interactions
among a large number of variables must be considered,
and mo.Jels are only as good as the quantitative data
available. Likewise, there is increased need to enlist
various laboratories evaluating different types of foods,
to help validate the effectiveness of different models.
Hopefully, there will be further efforts to enhance the inter-
national exchange of modeling concepts and databases.
Predictive microbiology techniques should be a boon
to food microbiologists, allowing them to rapidly explore
the microbiological impact of varying conditions within
a food. Likewise, the development of expert systems will
provide a means of making their knowledge readily
available to other segments of the food industry, freeing
their time lbr handling the more complex questions.
However, care has to be exercised in relation to empha-
sizing to users that the models are only a means of pro-
viding rapid 'first estimates" of microbiological behav-
ior. Models are not a substitute for good laboratory
support. Instead, they are u means of allowing a laborato-
ry to function more effectively. This new area of food
microbiology research will undoubtedly provide a pow-
erful set of new tools that will allow us to get one step
closer to the Iong-teo'n goal of being able to design
microbiological quality and safety into food products,
instead of attemptinu to introduce these attributes after
the fact through end-Froduct testing and iuspection.
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