THAI ELECTION

Thailand parliament opens to elect new PM: 5 things to

know
Real test begins for Pita's Move Forward coalition after historic election

Move Forward leader and prime minister candidate Pita Limjaroenrat speaks at a press conference on June 7. (Photo by Ken
Kobayashi)

FRANCESCA REGALADO, Nikkei staff writer

July 3, 2023 12:09 JST

BANGKOK -- Thailand's newly elected House of Representatives will begin their session
on Monday afternoon, 50 days after the May 14 general election won by the progressive
Move Forward Party.

Move Forward placed first in a surprise overtake of Pheu Thai, formerly the biggest
party on the pro-democracy side. The two parties have formed a coalition along with six
smaller parties, but infighting within the coalition, conservative backlash against Move
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Forward's policies, and legal and electoral challenges have made for a fraught
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The crucial prime minister vote will take place as early as next week. With the formation
of a Move Forward government still being uncertain, analysts warn of peril for the Thai
economy if the political transition is delayed, causing market uncertainty and
investment slowdown.

Here's what you need to know:

What events are scheduled first?

King Maha Vajiralongkorn will preside over the opening of parliament at 5 p.m. in
Bangkok on Monday and address the joint House and Senate.

The newly elected members of parliament comprise 400 district representatives and
100 party-list members. Move Forward has the most seats, 151, followed by Pheu Thai,
141.

The first major event comes on Tuesday: The speaker vote. Move Forward and Pheu
Thai have been in conflict over the speakership; Pheu Thai wants Move Forward to
share power by letting Pheu Thai have the speakership while Move Forward takes the
premiership.

Why does the Speaker election matter?

The Speaker of the House and two deputy speakers decide which bills are brought to the
floor, setting legislative priorities and maintaining order in the chamber.

The Speaker controls how many times the prime minister vote can be repeated if no one
can win a majority in the first round -- a critical consideration for Move Forward leader
Pita Limjaroenrat.

When will the prime minister be selected?

The prime minister vote is slated on July 13.

Any party is allowed to nominate candidates for prime minister from the names it
submitted to the Election Commission in April. Although each party was allowed three,
Move Forward nominated only Pita. Pheu Thai said it would not nominate a challenger
to Pita from its three candidates -- Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra; property tycoon Srettha Thavisin; and former Attorney
General Chaikasem Nitisiri.

Conservative parties are expected to nominate Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul,

whose Bhumjaithai Party finished third in the May 14 elections, and Gen. Prawit
Wongsuwan of the Palang Pracharath Party, the outgoing deputy prime minister.

Caretaker Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said, "No, probably not," when asked last
week whether he would be nominated.

Will Move Forward leader Pita become prime minister?

To succeed, a prime minister candidate needs at least 376 votes -- a simple majority of
500 representatives and 250 senators.

Move Forward's eight-party coalition has 312 seats and needs 64 more votes for Pita to
become prime minister. Some senators and conservative House members could cross
the line for Pita, but most conservatives cite two main reasons to vote against the Move
Forward leader.

First, Move Forward did not win a single-party majority, leaving the door open for
parties to form other coalitions should Pita fail to win the first round.

Second, Move Forward's signature policies of ending military conscription and

amending the country's lese-majeste laws -- which criminalize insulting the monarchy --
are a red line for senators appointed by the former military government.

The Election Commission also has until Monday to investigate whether Pita violated
election law by knowingly running for office unqualified. Opponents say Pita was
unqualified for holding shares in a now-defunct media company. Pita said the shares
were in his name only as the administrator of his father's will and transferred the shares
to relatives in late May.
How will the establishment respond?

Move Forward's election victory shook the conservative and pro-military parties, who
were decisively repudiated by voters. Options appear to have run out for conservatives,
with popular fervor on the side of the pro-democracy coalition and the failure of
electoral complaints against Pita and Move Forward.

Whoever becomes prime minister, demonstrations could happen from all sides. A
heavy-handed response to protesters by the government -- let alone another coup -- will
further dim economic prospects amid a stock market downturn in the country.

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