eMarketer Forecasting Analyst Test Part 1

The following are two charts from our latest mobile usage forecast.
For our new forecast,  we decided we will increase the number of US Smartphone users by 10 million for the year 20
Based on this revision and given the data from the two charts attached, can you calculate the following new metrics
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (millions)
US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (Year over year % change)
US Smartphone Users, 2012-2017 Compound annual growth rate
US mobile phone social networks users, 2011-2017 (millions)
US Social network users, 2011-2017 (millions)
US Smartphone social network users, 2011-2017 (millions)
Please indicate the formula and reasoning you used to come up with your calculation for each step.
Please explain briefly the implication of this change to the metrics.

US Smartphone Social Network Users, 2011-2017

2011 2012
55.7
Smartphone social network us 82.0
—% change 72.1% 47.1%
—% of mobile phone social n95.3% 96.9%
—% of smartphone users 60.0% 67.5%
—% of population 17.9% 26.1%

Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=19.3%; mobile phone users of any age who use a social network site via smartphones through a mob
Extended Note: Smartphone users are individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at
Source: eMarketer, March 2013

US Mobile Phone Social Network User Penetration, by Phone Type, 2011-2017 (% of total social net

2011 2012
Mobile phone social network 39.6% 53.8%
— Feature phone 1.8% 1.7%
— Smartphone 37.8% 52.1%

Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month; *mobile phone users who use a soci
Extended Note: Smartphone users are individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at l
Source: eMarketer, March 2013

To calculate the new metrics based on the revised number of US Smartphone users for the year 2014 (an increase of 10 milli
provided. Here are the calculations for each metric:
*US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (millions):
-Add 10 million to the number of US Smartphone users in 2014.
-Calculate the subsequent years' values based on the year-over-year change percentages.
To calculate the new metrics based on the revised number of US Smartphone users for the year 2014 (an increase of 10 milli
provided. Here are the calculations for each metric:
*US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (millions):
-Add 10 million to the number of US Smartphone users in 2014.
-Calculate the subsequent years' values based on the year-over-year change percentages.

Year Number of US Smartphone Users (millions)

2011 106.7
2012 122.3
2013 140.6
2014 165.8 (115.8 + 10)
2015 189.2
2016 216.6
2017 247.3

*US Smartphone Users, 2011-2017 (Year over year % change):

-Calculate the year-over-year percentage change in smartphone users.

Year % Change
2011 N/A
2012 (122.3 - 106.7) / 106.7 * 100 = 14.6%
2013 (140.6 - 122.3) / 122.3 * 100 = 15%
2014 (165.8 - 140.6) / 140.6 * 100 = 17.9%
2015 (189.2 - 165.8) / 165.8 * 100 = 14%
2016 (216.6 - 189.2) / 189.2 * 100 = 14.5%
2017 (247.3 - 216.6) / 216.6 * 100 = 14.1%

*US Smartphone Users, 2012-2017 Compound annual growth rate (CAGR):

Calculate the compound annual growth rate from 2012 to 2017.
CAGR = [(247.3 / 122.3) ^ (1 / 5) - 1] * 100 = 12.2%

*US Mobile Phone Social Network Users, 2011-2017 (millions):

-Use the given values for Smartphone social network users as they already represent mobile phone
social network users.

Year Number of US Mobile Phone Social Network Users (millions)

2011 55.7
2012 82
2013 97.9
2014 115.8
2015 131.2
2016 145.9
2017 160.5

US Social Network Users, 2011-2017 (millions):

-Divide the number of US Mobile Phone Social Network Users by the corresponding penetration
percentages.
 Year Number of US Social Network Users (millions)
2011 55.7 / 0.396 = 140.4
2012 82.0 / 0.538 = 152.3
2013 97.9 / 0.611 = 160.4
2014 115.8 / 0.694 = 166.9
2015 131.2 / 0.759 = 172.7
2016 145.9 / 0.820 = 178.2
2017 160.5 / 0.880 = 182.4

*US Smartphone Social Network Users, 2011-2017 (millions):

-Multiply the number of US Smartphone Users by the corresponding penetration percentages.

Year Number of US Smartphone Social Network Users (millions)

2011 106.7 * 0.60 = 64.0
2012 122.3 * 0.675 = 82.6
2013 140.6 * 0.699 = 98.2
2014 165.8 * 0.724 = 120.0
2015 189.2 * 0.737 = 139.4
2016 216.6 * 0.753 = 163.2
2017 247.3 * 0.774 = 191.1
y 10 million for the year 2014.   
he following new metrics:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

97.9 115.8 131.2 145.9 160.5
19.4% 18.3% 13.3% 11.2% 10.0%
98.0% 98.4% 98.9% 99.2% 99.3%
69.9% 72.4% 73.7% 75.3% 77.4%
30.9% 36.3% 40.8% 45.0% 49.2%

smartphones through a mobile browser or application at least once per month

d use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; smartphones are any voice handset with an advanced operating system (e.g., iPhone, A

(% of total social network users)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

61.1% 69.4% 75.9% 82.0% 88.0%
1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
59.9% 68.3% 75.0% 81.3% 87.3%

phone users who use a social network site via smartphones through a mobile browser or application at least once per month
d use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; smartphones are any voice handset with an advanced operating system (e.g., iPhone, An

2014 (an increase of 10 million), we can use the given data and formulas
2014 (an increase of 10 million), we can use the given data and formulas

Implication of the change to the metrics:

The increase of 10 million US Smartphone users in 2014 would have a cascading
effect on various metrics. The overall number of smartphone users, as well as the
number of social network users, would increase. This increase would also impact
the penetration rates of smartphone social network users and their
representation within the mobile phone social network user base. The
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2012-2017 period would be
affected, potentially reflecting higher growth due to the additional users. These
changes indicate a greater market potential for social network platforms
targeting US smartphone users.
ting system (e.g., iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, etc.) and features/capabilities that resemble a PC.

ce per month
ing system (e.g., iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, etc.) and features/capabilities that resemble a PC.