// The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that

specializes in the delivery of heating oil.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold,
have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season,
that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate
forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent
population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region
will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate
the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the
argument.//

In the memo to the board of directors of a company, author concludes that

northeastern united state region will experience an increased demand for heating
oil during the next five years. Author came to this conclusion based on predictions
that last heating seson experience days with below normal temperature and this
weather pattern will continue for several more years,new homes are being built in
that regions due to population growth. At first glance, argument seems logical.
However, in order to fully evaluate this argument we will need additional evidence.
The argument could be ended up by being weaker than it seems or it might be
actually quite valid. in order to determine this we need more evidence to analyze
this.

First of all, the author mentions "Most homes" in northeastern united states where
winters are typically cold,have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for
heating.here "most" term is vague. author represents most means maximum number of
homes. While it is possible that author consider only particular cluster of group
in which most people uses oil as heating purpose. The scope and validity of this
observation is not clear. Additionally, the author does not mention source of
observation,whether it is his personal observation or else it is written somewhere.
If author provides evidence of maximum number of homes observed and out of that if
provide exact number of homes that uses oil for heating , and if the author gives
evidence of source of observation then this arguemnt will be valid. Until the the
conclusion drawn in the argument is significantly weakened.

Another piece of evidence we need to know is whether oil will be useful for heating
below normal temperature or not, the author need to give this evidence, because in
argument it is mention that region experienced 90 days with below normal
temperatures and climate forecaster predict this weather will continue for several
years in future. it can be possible that the peoples are not using oil for heating
purpose like their anchestors use, may be they are using recent sources of heating
like heater,blowers. Additionally author states that new homes are being built in
the region in responce of population growth,it might be possible that these new
homes are designed that is having inbuilt heating system,might be they will use
electric heater as oil as a fuel causes air pollution. If author fail to give this
evidence then it will weaken the argument that predicts the increasing demand for
heating oil during the next five years.

In conclusion, the argument, as it stands now, is considerably flawed due to its

reliance on several unwarranted assumptions. If the author is able to provide the
evidence for the pieces mentioned above and perhaps conduct research with scrutiny,
then it will be possible to determine whether there will be increase in demands for
the heating oil or not.