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Exercise 4
Problem 1:
To calculate the variance and standard deviation of portfolio returns, we use this formula:
SD = 𝑉𝑎𝑟
a. correlation is 1.0
Var = (0.6 x 0.1)2 + (0.4 x 0.2)2 + 2 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 1.0 x 0.1 x 0.2 = 0.0196
b. correlation is 0.5
Var = (0.6 x 0.1)2 + (0.4 x 0.2)2 + 2 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.1 x 0.2 = 0.0148
c. correlation is 0
2 2 2 2
Var = 0. 6 × 0. 1 + 0. 4 × 0. 2 + 2 × 0. 6 × 0. 4 × 0. 1 × 0. 2 × 0 = 0. 01
SD = 0. 01 = 0. 1 = 10%
d. correlation is -1
2 2 2 2
𝑉𝑎𝑟 = 0. 6 × 0. 1 + 0. 4 × 0. 2 + 2 × 0. 6 × 0. 4 × 0. 1 × 0. 2 × (− 1) = 0. 0004
SD = 0. 0004 = 0. 02 = 2%
Comments on the Problem 1 results:
● When the correlation between the returns is 1.0, the SD of the portfolio returns is 14%
● When the correlation between the returns is 0.5, the SD of the portfolio returns is 12.2%
=> the portfolio has a lower level of risk compared to the case with a correlation of 1.0.
● When the correlation between the returns is 0, the SD of the portfolio returns is 10%
● When the correlation between the returns is -1, the SD of the portfolio returns is 2%
=> the portfolio has a high level of risk, as the negative correlation does not provide
diversification benefits.
Problem 2:
The expected returns for each of the stocks:
E(RVCB) = Σ pi x E(R)i = 0.15 x 0.2 + 0.35 x 0.15 + 0.35 x 0.1 + 0.15 x 0.05 = 12.5%
E(RVIC) = 0.15 x 0.2 + 0.35 x 0.1 + 0.35 x 0.15 + 0.15 x 0.05 = 12.5%
E(RFPT) = 0.15 x 0.05 + 0.35 x 0.1 + 0.35 x 0.15 + 0.15 x 0.2 = 12.5%
a.
To calculate the covariance between each pair of stock, we can use the formula:
Cov (VCB,VIC) = 0.15 x (0.2 - 0.125) x (0.2 - 0.125) + 0.35 x (0.15 - 0.125) x (0.1 - 0.125) + 0.35 x
(0.1 - 0.125) x (0.15 - 0.125) + 0.15 x (0.05 - 0.125) x (0.05 - 0.125) = 0.00125
Cov (VCB, FPT) = 0.15 x (0.2 - 0.125) x (0.05 - 0.125) + 0.35 x (0.15 - 0.125) x (0.1 - 0.125) + 0.35
x (0.1 - 0.125) x (0.15 - 0.125) + 0.15 x (0.05 - 0.125) x (0.2 - 0.125) = -0.002125
Cov (VIC, FPT) = 0.15 x (0.2 - 0.125) x (0.05 - 0.125) + 0.35 x (0.1 - 0.125) x (0.1 - 0.125) + 0.35 x
(0.15 - 0.125) x (0.15 - 0.125) + 0.15 x (0.05 - 0.125) x (0.2 - 0.125) = -0.00125
b.
E(P) = 0.5 x E(VCB) + 0.5 x E(VIC) = 0.5 x 0.125 + 0.5 x 0.125 = 12.5%
2
The variance of the portfolio: Var = Σ𝑝𝑖[𝐸(𝑅)𝑖 − 𝐸(𝑅)]
Var(VCB) = 0.15 x (0.20 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.15 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.10 - 0.125)^2 + 0.15 x
(0.05 - 0.125)^2 = 0.002125
Var (VIC) = 0.15 x (0.20 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.1 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.15 - 0.125)^2 + 0.15 x (0.05
- 0.125)^2 = 0.002125
2 2 2 2
𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑃) = 𝑊1 × σ1 + 𝑊2 × σ2 + 2 × 𝑊1 × σ1 × 𝑊1 × σ1 × 𝑝
c.
State: Return on Portfolio
Normal 50%x20%+50%x5%=12.5%
Boom 50%x15%+50%x10%=12.5%
Bust 50%x10%+50%x15%=12.5%
Recession 50%x20%+50%x5%=12.5%
The expected return of portfolio:
E(P) = 0.15 x 0.125 + 0.35 x 0.125 + 0.35 x 0.125 + 0.15 x 0125= 0.125 or 12.5%
Var(P)= 0.15 x (0.125 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.125 - 0.125)^2 + 0.35 x (0.125 - 0.125)^2 + 0.15 x
(0.125 - 0.125)^2=0
SD(P) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑃) = 0 = 0
d.
The expected return of portfolio:
E(P) = 0.3 x E(VCB) + 0.4 x E(VIC) + 0.3 x E(FPT) = 0.3 x 0.125 + 0.4 x 0.125 + 0.3 x 0.125
=12.5%