Latihan:

1. Alden Jewelers sells watches for $50 each.

2. During the next month, they estimate that they will sell 15, 25, 35, or 45 watches with
respective probabilities of 0.35, 0.25, 0.20, and 20 (figure it out).
3. They can only buy watches in lots of ten from their dealer. 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 watches
cost $40, 39, 37, 36, and 34 per watch respectively.
4. Every month, Alden has a clearance sale and will get rid of any unsold watches for $24
(watches are only in style for a month and so they have to buy the latest model each
month).
5. Any customer that comes in during the month to buy a watch, but is unable to, costs
Alden $6 in lost goodwill.
6. Find the best action under each of the four decision criteria

Jawaban:

The Solution
Creating the Payoff Table

    Buy 20   Buy 30   Buy 40   Buy 50  

Buy10
Demand 10 bought - 20 bought 30 bought - 40 bought - 50 bought -
-780
15 at $40 400 at $39 at $37 1110 at $36 1440 at $34 1700
10 sold @ 15 sold @ 15 sold @ 15 sold @ 15 sold @
  500 750 750 750 750
$50 $50 $50 $50 $50
5 lost 5 15 25 35
  goodwill -30 clearance 120 clearance 360 clearance 600 clearance 840
@ $6 at $24 at $24 at $24 at $24
Total   70   90   0  -90   -110
                 
Demand 10 bought - 20 bought 30 bought - 40 bought - 50 bought -
-780
25 at $40 400 at $39 at $37 1110 at $36 1440 at $34 1700
10 sold @ 20 sold @ 25 sold @ 25 sold @ 25 sold @
  500 1000 1250 1250 1250
$50 $50 $50 $50 $50
 15 lost 5 lost 5 15 25
  goodwill -90 goodwill -30 clearance 120 clearance 360 clearance 600
@ $6 @ $6 at $24 at $24 at $24
Total   10   190   260   170   150
                 
Demand 10 bought - 20 bought 30 bought - 40 bought - 50 bought -
-780
35 at $40 400 at $39 at $37 1110 at $36 1440 at $34 1700
10 sold @ 20 sold @ 30 sold @ 35 sold @ 35 sold @
  500 1000 1500 1750 1750
$50 $50 $50 $50 $50
25 lost 15 lost 5 lost 5 15
-
  goodwill goodwill -90 goodwill -30 clearance 120 clearance 360
150
@ $6 @ $6 @ $6 at $24 at $24
Total   -50   130   360   430   410
                 
Demand 10 bought - 20 bought 30 bought - 40 bought - 50 bought -
-780
45 at $40 400 at $39 at $37 1110 at $36 1440 at $34 1700
10 sold @ 20 sold @ 30 sold @ 40 sold @ 45 sold @
  500 1000 1500 2000 2250
$50 $50 $50 $50 $50
35 lost 25 lost 15 lost 5 lost 5
-
  goodwill goodwill -150 goodwill -90 goodwill -30 clearance 120
210
@ $6 @ $6 @ $6 @ $6 at $24
-
Total     70   300   530   670
110

Payoff Table

    Buy
    10 20 30 40 50
15 70 90 0 -90-110
25 10190260170 150
Demand
35 -50130360430 410
45-110 70300530 670

Opportunistic Loss Table

    Buy
    10 20 30 40 50
15 20 0 90180200
25250 70 0 90110
Demand
35480300 70 0 20
45780600370140 0
Best Choices

  Buy
Best Action
Criteria 10 20 30 40 50
Expected value -5119197 203 215 Buy 50
Maximax 70190360 530 670 Buy 50
Maximin -110 70 0 -90-110 Buy 20
Minimax 780600370 180 200 Buy 40

Dari data diatas, tindakan terbaik sebaiknya dalam pengambilan keputusan adalah pembelian jam
Buy 50 dengan Expected Value 215, Buy 20 dengan Maximax 670, Buy 20 dengan Maximin 70,
Buy 40 dengan minimax 180.
Masalah dalam pengambilan keputusan dalam bisnis yang gagal menilai dengan baik
keuntungan dan kerugian dari penetapan harga psikologis. Akibatnya, ada kemungkinan peluang
kerugian lebih tinggi dalam menetapkan harga yang tidak menguntungkan atau menggunakan
pesan harga yang tidak konsisten yang meremehkan produk dan merek dengan margin lebih
tinggi. Jika tidak segera diatasi, keputusan ini dapat memperburuk dan merusak kinerja bisnis
dan penjualan secara keseluruhan dan persepsi harga pelanggan. Sehingga lebih baik apabila
metode penetapan harga psikologis bisa efektif, tetapi hanya untuk keuntungan jangka
pendek. Penjualan tidak dapat hanya mengandalkan penurunan harga (obral) untuk
meningkatkan penjualan dan berkembang. apabila penetapan harga psikologis harus didukung
oleh analisis mendalam tentang kelebihan dan kekurangannya, pengambilan keputusan yang
baik, dan kemampuan komersial yang kuat. Pada akhirnya, kita akan mengetahui kapan
sebaiknya menggunakan strategi penetapan harga obral dan kapan sebaiknya tidak.