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5energía y Cambio Climático
5energía y Cambio Climático
Implications for
the Energy Sector
Physical
change is unequivocal, and that human activities,
particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, are very likely
to be the dominant cause. Changes are observed in all
geographical regions: the atmosphere and oceans are
warming, the extent and volume of snow and ice are
diminishing, sea levels are rising and weather patterns
Science
are changing.
Projections:
of
Computer models of the climate used by the IPCC indicate
that changes will continue under a range of possible
greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century.
If emissions continue to rise at the current rate, impacts
by the end of this century are projected to include a
Climate
global average temperature 2.6–4.8 degrees Celsius (°C)
higher than present, and sea levels 0.45–0.82 metres
higher than present.
Change
(UNFCCC) agreed a target of keeping the rise in average global
temperature since pre-industrial times below 2°C, and to
consider lowering the target to 1.5°C in the near future.
REVIEWERS:
Brian Statham, Chairman of the Studies
This document is one of a series synthesising the most pertinent findings Committee, World Energy Council,
of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief Dr Christoph Frei, Secretary General,
that the energy sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and World Energy Council
highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, Cambridge Team:
relevant and readable summary. Nicolette Bartlett, Stacy Gilfillan,
Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key David Reiner, Eliot Whittington
content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to
the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material. PROJECT DIRECTOR:
Tim Nuthall
Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and
business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on PROJECT MANAGER/EDITOR:
this document. Joanna Benn
The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found EDITORIAL CONSULTANTS:
in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific Carolyn Symon, Richard Black
background reports at: www.ipcc.ch
PROJECT ASSISTANTS:
Myriam Castanié,
Simon McKeagney
LAYOUT DESIGN:
Lucie Basset, Burnthebook
INFOGRAPHIC:
Carl De Torres Graphic Design
Rising temperatures coupled with Although thermal power plants Changing regional weather patterns
a growing world population and (currently providing about 80% are likely to affect the hydrologic
economic growth will drive an of global electricity) are designed cycle that underpins hydropower
increase in overall demand for to operate under diverse climatic generation. In some regions, a
energy. Rising income levels in conditions, they will be affected by decline in rainfall levels and a
poorer countries in warm climates the decreasing efficiency of thermal rise in temperature, leading to
are likely to lead to increased conversion as a result of rising increased water loss, could result
use of air-conditioning. Global ambient temperatures. Also, in in reduced or more intermittent
energy demand for residential air- many regions, decreasing volumes ability to generate electricity.
conditioning in summer is projected of water available for cooling and Although projections contain large
to increase rapidly from nearly 300 increasing water temperatures could uncertainties, hydropower capacity
TWh in 2000, to about 4000 TWh lead to reduced power operations, in the Zambezi river basin in Africa
in 2050. Much of this growth is due operation at reduced capacity or may fall by as much as 10% by 2030,
to increasing income in emerging even temporary shutdowns. and 35% by 2050. On the other
market countries, but some is due hand, hydropower capacity in Asia
to climate change. Colder, richer Extreme weather events pose a could increase.
countries will see energy demand major threat to all power plants
for heating fall, but could still see but particularly to nuclear
overall energy use increase. plants, where they could disrupt
the functioning of critical
equipment and processes that are
indispensable to safe operation
including reactor vessels, cooling
equipment, control instruments and
back-up generators.
and Thermal power plants will be affected by the Energy transport infrastructure is at risk, with oil
Reduction Adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil Energy efficiency can be improved by retrofitting
60 Business-as-usual
emissions trajectory
Policy Framework Largest GHG Contributor
40
Emissions traject
likely to keep glo
warming below 2
Additional investments, which could The energy sector is the largest source of
be bolstered by fiscal measures and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Meeting the 2°C 20
subsidies are required in the energy target implies swiftly halting the rise in emissions for
supply sector to keep the global the full energy system and bringing them to zero
temperature increase below 2°C. before the end of the century, with a likely need for 1950 2000 2050 2100
'negative emissions' technology such as BECCS.
Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Please visit cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc worldenergy.org
Extreme weather events, especially strong Changes in regional weather patterns threaten Lack of water and
wind, could damage power lines. Standards to impact the hydrologic cycle that underpins extreme weather events
can be amended to implement appropriate hydropower. An increase in cloudiness in may threaten nuclear
adaptation measures, including re-routing some regions would affect solar technologies, plants by disrupting the
lines away from high-risk areas. while an increase in the number and severity functioning of critical
of storms could damage equipment. equipment and processes.
Switching to lower-carbon fuels (eg from Increasing use of renewables such Reducing consumer demand is a key
coal to gas) can reduce emissions. Moving as solar, wind and biofuels. Increasing mitigation strategy. The level of demand
from world-average efficiency coal plant use of nuclear power. Hydropower is currently reduction determines the size of the
to state-of-the-art gas can halve emissions the largest single RE contributor, but solar, wind mitigation challenge facing the energy
if fugitive methane release is controlled, and bioenergy are expected to experience the sector. Potential limitations from 'rebound
and can act as a 'bridging technology'. biggest incremental growth. effect' to be taken into consideration.
tory
obal Regulatory Frameworks Investment in Technology Carbon Pricing
2°C
Governments may facilitate an New technologies can be used For government and
increased use of emission reduction for efficiency improvements, regulators, a key challenge
options by creating an attractive power generation, extraction, will be to ensure a price of
fiscal and regulatory framework. storage, transmission and carbon that incentivises extra
distribution. investment in low-carbon
technologies.
Resilience
Coal mining companies can improve drainage and run-off for on-site
coal storage, as well as implementing changes in coal handling due to the
increased moisture content of coal. Pipeline operators may be forced to
follow new land zoning codes and to implement risk-based design and
construction standards for new pipelines, and structural upgrades to
existing infrastructure.
Authorities can plan for evolving demand needs for heating and cooling
by assessing the impact on the fuel mix. Heating often involves direct
burning of fossil fuels, whereas cooling is generally electrically powered.
More demand for cooling and less for heating will create a downward
pressure on direct fossil fuel use, but an upward pressure on demand
for electricity.
As the sector producing the largest share of GHG emissions, the energy sector would be
substantially affected by policies aimed at meeting the internationally agreed 2°C target
for global warming. A number of mature options exist that can, if scaled up, result in
substantial mitigation of the sector’s GHG emissions. However, the scale of the challenge
is considerable. Pathways compatible with the 2°C target typically envisage achieving
virtual decarbonisation of the energy supply at some point between 2050 and the end of
the century. It is likely that ‘negative emissions’ – technologies that absorb CO2 from the
atmosphere – will also be needed.
• Introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and an extension into CCS plants
that use bioenergy crops (BECCS) as an approach to achieving ‘negative emissions’
Increasing efficiency
Improving energy efficiency in power transmission and
CCS and bioenergy
distribution could help reduce GHG emissions. Losses as a Carbon capture and storage technologies are capable of
fraction of energy generated vary widely between countries, significantly reducing the CO2 emissions of fossil fuel-fired
with some developing countries having losses of over 20%. power plants. Global warming is unlikely to be kept under 2°C
Combined transmission and distribution losses for the OECD without introduction and widespread adoption of CCS, and
countries taken together were 6.5% of total electricity output in the cost of mitigation would be higher in the absence of CCS.
2000. Increased use of improved transformers and distributed However, while all of the components of integrated CCS systems
power generation would reduce losses, while new technologies already exist, it has not yet been applied to a large, commercial
such as dynamic loading, gas-insulated transmission lines and fossil fuel-fired generation facility.
high voltage DC transmission (HVDC) could offer reductions.
• Maximising co-benefits for other policy objectives Climate change mitigation policies could devalue fossil
fuel assets and reduce revenues for fossil fuel exporters, but
• Reducing risks associated with supply-side mitigation (e.g. differences between regions and fuels exist. Most mitigation
bioenergy crops) scenarios are associated with reduced revenues from coal and
• Increasing the cost-effectiveness of the transition. oil for major exporters. Impacts on gas producers are less clear,
and could involve increased profits for gas exporters up to 2050.
However, potential limitations from the ‘rebound effect’ Availability of CCS in some scenarios would mitigate impacts
need to be taken into consideration. on revenue.
Conclusion
Climate change will affect the entire energy sector, through impacts and
through policy. While the cost of mitigating emissions across all sectors
could reduce annual consumption growth by 0.04–0.14%, the scale of
the low-carbon transition and the opportunities for investment are likely
to be larger in the energy sector than in others. Additional investments
required in the energy system in order to keep the temperature increase
since pre-industrial times below 2°C are estimated to be USD 190–900
billion per year on the supply-side alone, although this investment
could realise important co-benefits for economies as a whole. However,
infrastructure tends to be used for at least 30 years once built; so decisions
made in the next couple of decades will be crucial in deciding whether the
energy sector leads the way towards or away from a 2°C future.
The process of adjustment to actual The effects of climate change on Low-carbon electricity or power comes
or expected climate and its effects. natural and human systems. from processes or technologies that,
In human systems, adaptation seeks produce power with substantially lower
to moderate or avoid harm or exploit DECARBONISATION amounts of carbon dioxide emissions
beneficial opportunities. In natural than is emitted from conventional fossil
systems, human intervention may The process by which countries or other fuel power generation.
facilitate adjustment to expected entities aim to achieve a low-carbon
climate and its effects. economy, or by which individuals aim MITIGATION
to reduce their carbon emissions.
BECCS A human intervention to reduce the
EMERGING ECONOMIES sources or enhance the sinks of
Bio-energy with carbon capture greenhouse gases.
and storage. Economies in the low- to middle-income
category that are advancing rapidly and NATURAL GAS COMBINED CYCLE
BIOENERGY are integrating with global capital and (NGCC) PLANT
product markets.
Energy derived from any form of Gas-fired unit for generating electricity
biomass such as recently living ENERGY EFFICIENCY in which waste heat from the initial
organisms or their metabolic gas combustion is captured and
by-products. The ratio of useful energy output of a used to power a secondary turbine,
system, conversion process, or activity usually using steam. This substantially
BIOMASS to its energy input. increases the overall efficiency.
For more information: Reproduction and use: The materials can be freely used to advance discussion
on the implications of the AR5 and consequences for business. The report is
E-mail: AR5@europeanclimate.org made available to any and all audiences via the Creative Commons License
www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc BY-NC-SA. This document is available for download from the CISL website:
www.worldenergy.org www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc
www.europeanclimate.org