Alexandria Engineering Journal (2023) 67, 241–255

H O S T E D BY
Alexandria University

Alexandria Engineering Journal

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

levels: Prioritize potential areas for TOD in
Alexandria, Egypt using GIS-Spatial Multi-
Criteria based model
Sara M. Ibrahim a,b,*, Hany M. Ayad b,1, Eslam A. Turki c, Dina M. Saadallah b,1

a
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Delta University for Science and Technology, Gamasa, Egypt
b
Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt
c
Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), 98 Abd Al Karim Al Khatabi, Sidi
Gaber, Alexandria, 21523, Egypt

Received 18 June 2022; revised 14 November 2022; accepted 22 December 2022

Available online 30 December 2022

KEYWORDS Abstract In various countries around the world, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is getting
Transit-oriented develop- more attention as one of the most comprehensive planning approaches that can stimulate sustain-
ment; able development, by encouraging the integration of land-use and transport systems. It is believed
TOD level; that measuring the levels of TOD based on existing potential is a prerequisite for TOD planning, as
Multi-Criteria Decision it facilitates the prioritization of development interventions. In this vein, this study aims to identify
Making (MCDM); and prioritize potential areas for TOD in the City of Alexandria, Egypt. This was done using spatial
Spatial Multi-criteria analy- statistical analysis with combined models of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Spatial
sis; Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA). The combined models can reach a comprehensive value depicting
TOD index; the existing levels of TOD in an area-wide context, via an index (potential TOD index). Using this
Alexandria city
index, TOD levels were measured over 6 districts and 109 sub-districts (shyakhat), covering approx-
imately 340 km2. Using nine potential indicators, the scores of the potential TOD index, which indi-
cates the degree of suitability of bus stations as potential TODs, were determined. The results
showed that some areas were highly suitable for TOD and had great potential in terms of re-
development.
Ó 2022 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria
University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

* Corresponding author at: 10 Adib Maakad Street, El-Syouf, Alexandria 21533, Egypt.
E-mail addresses: post-sara.mohamed@alexu.edu.eg, Sara.Sabry@deltauniv.edu.eg (S.M. Ibrahim), hany.m.ayad@alexu.edu.eg (H.M. Ayad),
eslam.turki@gmail.com (E.A. Turki), dina.saadallah@alexu.edu.eg (D.M. Saadallah).
1
Postal Address: Lotfy El-Sied St. off Gamal Abd El-Naser, Al Azaritah Shatebi, Qesm Bab Sharqi, Alexandria 21544, Egypt.
Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2022.12.053
1110-0168 Ó 2022 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
242 S.M. Ibrahim et al.

1. Background tical-,spatial-statistical-, and simulation-based methods. The

review also revealed that many researchers consider Spatial
The concept of TOD appeared in the US during the 1990s and Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA) the preferred analytical
received increasing attention from practitioners and research- method for prioritizing potential locations for interventions
ers. This concept aims to achieve sustainable development by over an entire area. It can also help to understand TOD levels
integrating land-use, transportation planning, and urban at a regional level. This study aimed to re-contextualize and
design, providing holistic solutions to ongoing urban prob- implement an existing method that measures the degree of suit-
lems. TOD is considered a method to promote public transport ability of different areas as potential TODs (potential TOD
ridership, encourage the use of non-motorized transport, den- levels) via an index. This is done by showing the measuring
sify neighborhoods, reduce air pollution, and maximize the method capabilities in another context and then putting it into
efficiency of transport services by concentrating urban devel- practice by testing it empirically on a case study, respectively.
opment around transit stops/stations. It is believed that mak- The developed method extends from a framework commonly
ing more effective plans for TOD with higher chances of used by researchers (as in [5–7] studies) and is drawn from
success needs identification of TOD levels (TOD-ness). the review and analysis of relevant studies (based on the work
Accordingly, it is necessary to measure transit-orientated levels of [3,4]). The authors intend to apply this method to the City
of urban development for areas with high potential, which of Alexandria, as a case study to measure levels of TOD, using
stakeholders are interested to develop, upgrade, or maintain. a TOD index and identify the areas where they can be created
Moreover, this could also guide governments and private or improved. In order to achieve the main aim of the research,
investors in prioritizing investment for future projects. Hence, the following objectives were set:
Evans et al., (2007) [1] defined the 10 most commonly quantifi-
able indicators to measure levels of TOD via an index. This
Employing spatial analytical methods (GIS and SMCA) to
index allows measuring all the indicators of TOD areas to obtain the index of potential TOD levels based on a set of
identify which areas needed higher TOD levels or better transit indicators.
connectivity. These indicators include transport indicators as
Employing spatial statistical methods (hotspot and cluster/
well as land use indicators and classified as follows: (1) The tra- outlier analyses) to analyze the values obtained for the
vel behavior category (transit ridership, number of mode con- TOD index.
nections at the station/ stop, and number of parking spaces for
Prioritizing potential locations (hotspots) for upgrading the
residents, tenants, visitors, or commuters); (2) The economic/ levels of TOD-ness.
built environment category (density (population or/housing),
Helping decision-makers to identify priorities and offer a
employment density, quality of streetscape design, quantity model for potential use.
of mixed-use structures, number of intersections or street
crossings improved for pedestrian safety); (3) The economic
category (increase in property value, and estimated amount 2. Methodology and materials
of private investment); and (4) The social diversity/quality cat-
egory (public perception). Since TOD is about integrating both 2.1. Methodology
T (transit) and D (development), many researchers believed
that TOD planning for a region must use two approaches: As shown in Fig. 1, the current study relied on a four-stage
MCDM-GIS-based method employed by many researchers
1. The first approach: The identification of areas where urban as [5–7], as a way to develop a spatial index for the City of
development has high transit orientation, but TOD levels Alexandria, where TOD scores were identified, computed,
are low.
2. The second approach: The identification of potential loca-
tions for transit connectivity or areas that are characterized
by high TOD levels but poor or absent transit connection.
Singh et al. [2] argued that a single TOD index is not suffi-
cient, since the two previously mentioned approaches differ in
terms of area, scale, and measurement indicators. Hence, they
proposed two TOD indexes, one for each approach, called the
‘actual TOD index’ and the ‘potential TOD index’. The former
measures the first approach and the latter measures the second
approach. These computable indexes are usually analyzed
using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and
techniques. The MCDM process is one of several different pro-
posed methods since the 1970s to make optimal decisions in
multi-criteria problems and has been employed in transporta-
tion planning. This paper focuses on the second approach,
which computes the potential TOD index using MCDM
methods.
Based on the previous work done by Ibrahim et al. [3,4], the
reviewed literature shows that a variety of methods can be used
to measure the TOD index. They are divided into spatial-analy Fig. 1 The methodological framework of the analysis.
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels
mapped, and analyzed. The methodological framework
employed adopted models: GIS-based, SMCA-based, and
spatial-statistical-based models. First, the most significant cri-
teria and indicators were determined from previous studies to
identify which indicators are commonly used by researchers to
measure potential TOD levels in an area. The selected list of
indicators was calculated using vector data and based on ade-
quate formulas. Since most indicators are spatial, GIS was uti-
lized to calculate them. Second, in order to obtain the spatial
TOD index, the calculated indicators were aggregated using
the SMCA model, based on an efficient function. Third, the
results obtained for the TOD index in the study area were eval-
uated through spatial-statistical analysis to find recommenda-
tions for hotspots for transit connectivity. The areas that
currently have transit connections were excluded from the fur-
ther evaluation. Finally, the clustering values were analyzed to
find new hotspots for each alternate scenario, in order to rec-
ommend interventions for increasing TOD levels.
2.2. The study area
Alexandria Governorate extends from Abu-Kir Bay in the east
to Borg El-Arab in the west and lies between longitudes 30° 000
0000 and 29° 250 0000 East and 30°100 0000 and 31°150 0000 North.
The governorate is located on the north-western edge of the
Nile Delta and extends about 70 km along the Mediterranean
Sea. It is bordered by the Mediterranean seacoast to the north,
Lake Mariout to the south, and Abu-Kir Bay and Lake Idku
Fig. 2 Study area maps.
243
to the east. This study focuses on the City of Alexandria, the
third-largest city in Egypt, with a population of around
5,431,379. Population growth during the past decades resulted
in the densification of the existing urban zones and expansion
westwards along the Coast. Moreover, the expansion around
the urban core continues towards the south in areas that are
currently expanding without formal planning (see Fig. 2).
According to the Alexandria Strategic Urban Plan 2032
(SUP 2032), the population is forecasted to increase by 52 %
between 2010 and 2032. The City of Alexandria consists of
nine districts including Montazah First, Montazah Second,
Eastern (Sharq), Middle (Wasat), Western (Gharb), El-
Gomrok, El-Agamy, El-Ameriyah, and Borg El-Arab districts.
Due to the data limitation for El-Ameriyah and Borg El-Arab
districts, the assessment of the study area (on the city scale)
was limited to 6 districts and 109 sub-districts (shyakhat), cov-
ering approximately 340 km2.
Due to the linear composition of the City, the increasing
population puts pressure on the transportation network, which
is naturally based on one or several east–west axes combined
with south-north feeding lines. Alexandria is currently witness-
ing a set of national projects in urban railways and electric
transformation, set to enhance mobility within the City and
stimulate a modal shift from private cars to public transport.
The City is underway to start implementing two major projects
(1) the rehabilitation and extension of the existing El-Raml
tramline (2) and the upgrade of an underused urban railway
(Abu-Kir line) into a high-frequency surface metro. These
244 S.M. Ibrahim et al.

two short-term priority projects were planned to improve city reports prepared by the French Development Agency (AFD),
center-east trips and to make Alexandria a traffic-free urban the Government of Alexandria (GOA), and the General Orga-
center. Considering the high demand for transportation in nization for Physical Planning (GOPP). Most of this data was
Alexandria, the two projects alone will not be sufficient to readily available, whilst a few criteria maps had to be built
solve mobility problems in the City. from scratch. Table 1 provides details on the formats and
sources of each dataset used in this work. After collecting
2.3. Transport modes included in the study the data from these sources, they were linked to georeferenced
data and shapefiles, to be used later in calculation procedures.
The first step in this study was to decide on the modes of trans-
portation to be included in the research. According to New- 2.5. Spatial unit for potential TOD index calculations
man [8], for a successful TOD, transit must be able to
compete with private transport or cars in capacity, quality, There are several spatial definitions for TOD areas, which
speed, and dependability. In light of this issue, bus-based appeared in the literature conceptualizing TODs at different
TOD systems (BTODs) seem to be more suitable than rail- spatial levels. Most of these definitions agreed that a TOD area
based TOD systems (RTODs) in the Alexandrian context for is typically described as the area within a walkable distance of
the following reasons: about 500–800 m of a transit node. However, the potential
TOD index has no such defined boundary or recommended
1. According to SUP 2032 [9], light-rail transit (LRT), bus size for an area, yet it is measured for the entire area of a city.
rapid transit (BRT), and mass-rail transit (MRT) linking It has been acknowledged that the grid tessellation of space by
east, and west are still under planning for the City of Mitchell [10] is a well-established method that can (1) assist in
Alexandria, to improve structure in the western urban the modeling of a spatial phenomenon by using an optimal
development with mass transport lines (for medium- number of spatial features via grid cells, (2) capture and accu-
distance trips). rately depict the spatial variation of the underlying indicators,
2. Electric buses would provide local service (low- to medium- and (3) maintain an effective and manageable spatial database
distance trips), connect the subsystems, provide greater and computation procedures.
flexibility, and feed the high-capacity transit corridors.
3. From the perspective of comparative infrastructure devel-
opment, timeframe, and cost, BTODs seem to be more
appropriate than RTODs in the Alexandrian context. Table 1 Data used with their respective year, formats, and
4. Usually, metros, BRT, MRT, and LRT networks are TOD sources. Source: the authors.
transit’s backbone in many cities. However, public bus sys-
Data requirement / Format Data source
tems (regular and electric), private mini-bus systems, and features
collective taxis (paratransit and/or private microbuses) are
Map of regions and GIS GOPP + GOA
the backbone of public transport in Alexandria. However,
administrative spatial
private mini-buses and collective taxis were excluded from
boundaries data
the current study because they are low-capacity transit Map of neighborhoods, GIS GOPP + CAPMAS
modes without fixed routes and timetables. Regular local building footprints, and spatial &
buses were also excluded because they are not their attributes statistical
environment-friendly and cannot compete with private cars data
except in capacity. Number of houses per GIS CAPMAS
neighborhood spatial
From the previous, the TOD index was measured in the data
context of electric buses, as a transit system required for Land-use data GIS CAPMAS
spatial
TOD in the City. Moreover, local Alexandrian authorities,
data
transport planners, and transport decision-making entities
Demographic data Statistical CAPMAS
would benefit from the current study by knowing which areas data
in the region require transit connectivity. Road network map and GIS APTA
its attributes spatial
2.4. Data acquisition and preparation data
Bus station or/stops GIS APTA + Reports + site
Locations spatial visits
The data required for the development of criteria maps were
data
acquired from several sources. The primary data was collected
Number of commercial Statistical CAPMAS
using a questionnaire and an interview with 30 Alexandrian establishments data
experts from various fields related to this research. They were
thus able to give different weights to each indicator and sub- Notes:
Formats: shape file or Geo-data base (GIS spatial data) or excel
indicator. While the secondary data included the spatial data
sheet (statistical data).
in the form of GIS spatial data and attribute data, consisting
GOPP: General Organization for Physical Planning; GOA:
of population statistic data, administrative boundary, land- Government of Alexandria; CAPMAS: Central Agency for
use, and transportation-related data. The secondary data were Mobilization and Statistics; APTA: Alexandria Passenger Trans-
acquired from authorized sources in Egypt, including the Cen- portation Authority.
tral Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS),
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels 245

Accordingly, different grid tessellations of 100  100,
200  200, 300  300, and 500  500 m were created by using
‘the fishnet function’ in ArcGIS. Considering the context of the
Alexandria city, through analyzing block size and urban fab-
ric, the spatial scale of a typical TOD area, and the cell size
of the grid, a cell size of 300  300 m was selected as the basic
spatial unit for measuring the potential TOD index for the
entire City. More than 4,180 grid cells were created covering
340 km2 of the City of Alexandria. In the data conversion pro-
cess, some spatial data (i.e., population and employment den-
sity), the smallest unit available with complete data in the case
of Alexandria was on the sub-district (shyakhat) scale, as
opposed to other types of data that were found on the scale
of buildings. Hence, these spatial data had to be disaggregated
to the grid cells containing buildings (excluding water bodies
and vacant lands), using ArcGIS.
the criteria and indicators, which were finally adopted for mea-
suring the potential TOD index in this study. In the current
study, the authors had to add the floor area ratio (FAR) and
building coverage ratio (BCR) because, in the Alexandrian
context, buildings have multiple floors, some are often so dense
that the building area covers almost the total area of land.
4. Computing individual indicators for the potential TOD index
As given in Table 2, seven indicators were calculated in Arc-
GIS to measure the potential TOD index across the City of
Alexandria. The following sub-sections show details of the cal-
culations for each indicator, expressed in their methods of cal-
culation and formulas.
4.1. Density indicators

3. Identification of assessment criteria and indicators

It is frequently discussed in the literature that high population
densities are important to support higher frequency transit ser-
The determination of the indicators used in the SMCA assess- vice, optimize transit ridership, and foster lively, walkable
ment of TODs was adopted from the indicators proposed by communities. Thus, high-density development is an indication
Evans et al., [1], from the 5Ds proposed by Ewing and Cervero of high travel demand, and hence high TOD levels in an area.
[11], and from those operationalized by Fard [12] and Singh The density indicator is conventionally measured in the form
et al. [13]. According to the literature review and the present of the variable of interest per unit area. In this study, the total
case study, the indicators cover four main criteria (attributes number of this variable within a walking distance from the sta-
or parameters): density, land-use diversity, design, and eco- tion (population, houses, businesses, employment, and com-
nomic development. Unfortunately, the choice of indicators mercial areas) in the form of an absolute number per cell
was influenced by the availability of data and time constraints was calculated to measure densities and this method is adopted
to develop a criteria map. However, the final chosen indicators by [5,12,15]. The main data source related to land-use, used to
were believed that they are sufficiently representative of the calculate this indicator, is the building footprint data, which
four essential criteria classes, as discussed by Patel and Shah contains the building footprint and the function of each build-
[14]. The dropped indicators from the analysis are less impor- ing. As for the FAR, it is the ratio of the total of the whole
tant than the chosen ones, nevertheless, more precise results floor space in a building (total floor area) divided by the land
would be obtained if they were included. Table 2 summarizes (site) area. While the BCR is the ratio of the building area
(footprint) divided by the land (site) area.
Table 2 Criteria for measuring potential TOD index and the
adopted indicators for the current study. Population density (Inhabitants/km2)
Criteria Measurable Indicators Adopted Type of Residential density (Number of residential buildings/km2)
measure Employment density (Number of jobs or employees/km2)
p Commercial density (Number of commercial enterprises/
Density Residential density in Built
km2)
TOD area* Environment
p Floor Area Ratio (FARÞ ¼ Total floor area ð1st floor areaþ2ndþ3rdþ::Þ
Employment density in Site area
area ðfootprintÞ
TOD area*
p Building Coverage Ratio (BCRÞ ¼ Building Site area
Population density
p
Commercial density in
TOD area*
p 4.2. Land-use diversity indicator
Diversity Land use diversity*
p
Design Land use mixedness*
Quality of streetscape  This indicator is intended to measure the number of diverse
for walking & cycling types of land-use in a given area and the degree to which they
Density of signaled  are represented. It also examines the level of spatial hetero-
intersections/street geneity in terms of the proportion of different land-use types
crossings*
p within an easily walkable area. The different types of land-
Economic Number of business Economic
use in an area support the various requirements of its inhabi-
Development establishments
Private investment in 
tants, which finally has a pivotal effect on their trip generation.
the area There are different approaches to measure the diversity of
Tax earnings of the  land-use; the ‘entropy method’ was utilized in this study and
municipality adapted from [16]. This method is also employed by
Employment levels  [6,12,17–19]. Since the established methods that compute the
Note: spatial indicators are indicated by an asterisk (*) symbol. diversity of land-use employ raster data, a geo-processing
model was developed for the current study, which is capable
246
of computing diversity based on vector data. A single cell of
300  300 m covers a small area and cannot accommodate a
variety of land uses. Hence, for each grid cell, the adjacent
area, including the cell of interest and a surrounding 300-
meter buffer, is defined as the area of analysis (Fig. 3). Then,
for each class of land-use, the total overlapping area between
two areas of analysis is calculated using Equation (1) adapted
from [16] and values are assigned to the polygon area of anal-
ysis, according to this Equation.
Xn
Qlui  lnðQluiÞ Slui
LUdðiÞ ¼  ; where QLui ¼
i¼1
lnn Si
where, LUd (i) is the diversity of land-use in the area of
analysis (window) i, Lui is the class of land-use (1, 2, 3,
4,..n) in the area of analysis i, QLui is the ratio of the area
of a certain type of land-use to the area of analysis i, n is
the total number of different types of land-use in the area
of analysis i, SLui is the total area of different types of
land-use within the area of analysis i, and Si is the total area
of analysis i.
The data used to calculate the diversity of land-use is sim-
ilar to the data used to calculate density, which employs the
building footprint data. The resulting index is between 0 and
1, where a value of 1 implies a most balanced mix of the differ-
ent types of land-use (highest level of diversity) and a value of
0 indicates the absence of diversity or the presence of a single
type of land-use.
Fig. 3 The red square is the grid cell of interest (target of analysis) and the yellow square is the adjacent neighboring cells which covers
300 m around the cell of interest. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version
of this article.)
S.M. Ibrahim et al.
4.3. Land-use mixed-ness indicator
This indicator measures how residential land-use is mixed with
other types of land-use. This indicator has also been used to
express the walkability and cyclability of an area. It has been
acknowledged that adequately mixing residential land-use with
other types of land-use within a TOD area encourages people
to walk or cycle to finish their daily chores. Excessively large
distances between different types of land-use result in more
mobility, which increases the need to develop more infrastruc-
ð1Þ ture and to use private cars, especially for urban travel. In
addition, both single land-use developments and inappropriate
mixed-ness in an area increase travel time. This increment can
lead to traffic congestion, global warming, and environmental
pollution. Thus, it is necessary to calculate the mixed-ness of
residential land-use with respect to other types of land-use,
in the context of the catchment area (an 800-meter walking dis-
tance). The mixed-ness indicator is calculated using Equation
(2), developed by Zhang and Guindon [20], which employs
vector land-use data. Once again, an area of analysis is used
to calculate the level of mixed-ness of land-use in a grid cell.
PT
i Sc
Mixedness index ðMIÞ ¼ PT ð2Þ
ðSc þ SrÞ
i
where, MI is the mixed-ness index for the area of analysis i, Sc
shows the sum of the total area of other types of land-use
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels 247

within the area of analysis i, and Sr is the sum of the total land
area for residential land-use within the area of analysis i.
The value of this indicator can range from 0 to 1, where a
value of 0 indicates the absence of residential land-use and a
value of 1 shows the highest mixed-use index. A balanced
mixed-ness of land-use is best at an index value of 0.5, which
implies an equal share of residential and other types of land-
use.
convex, curve, and U-shape). These methods are used to con-
vert the initial values of indicators into standardized values
ranging from 0 to 1, where 1 represents the highest value. In
the current study, the researcher employed the maximum
method. Each pixel in the map was divided by the maximum
value. The goal was for the indicator to reach 1.
5.2. Weighting the indicators

4.4. Economic development indicator
Economic development has been proposed as an indicator for
the level of TOD by Evans et al., [1] and Renne et al. [21]. The
number of business establishments or business density in an
area is one of the indicators of economic development. A
higher number of business establishments represents higher
levels of economic development, higher demand on travel,
and hence higher levels of TOD in the area. Similarly, the busi-
ness density is calculated in the same manner as other densities
(i.e., commercial, and residential densities) using the same
method.
Business density (Number of business establishments/km2).
5. Calculating the potential index of TOD using the SMCA
model
After calculating all individual indicators in ArcGIS, they are
collectively evaluated to calculate the value of the TOD index
for each grid cell. In the current stage, performing SMCA
starts by choosing the proper standardization method for indi-
cators, assigning weights to them according to their level of
importance to the TOD concept in its context, and construct-
ing the final values of the potential TOD index.
5.1. Standardization of indicators
At this stage, the weights of the criteria have to be defined,
after standardization, to reflect their relative degree of impor-
tance and the strength of the association between the level of
TOD and the indicator. Weighing indicators can be done by
one or many groups of stakeholders, such as policymakers,
planners, researchers, and others, based on their perceptions.
First, a questionnaire was presented to Alexandrian stakehold-
ers to determine relevant indicators and to rank them on a
scale from 1 to 10, based on their relative importance in the
realization of TOD.
Second, their ranks were aggregated using the ‘Borda
Count method’, to assign a score to each criterion and indica-
tor, using Equation (3), adopted from [6,22]. Third, the criteria
and indicators were ranked, so that the one with the highest
score was ranked the highest and the one with the lowest score
was ranked the lowest. Fourth, the aggregated ranks were then
converted to weights using the ‘Rank sum method’, which cal-
culates the weight of each criterion and normalizes the weights
of the individual indicators and criteria, using Equation (4)
adopted from [5].
Xn¼10
Sc ¼ 1
ðKni  nÞ ð3Þ
where, Kni is the number of stakeholders who assigned an nth
rank to the criterion number i.
nþ1k
WðkÞ ¼ Pn ð4Þ
i¼1 ðn þ 1  iÞ

After each indicator’s value has been determined, the initial
step in the SMCA model is to standardize the value of indica-
tors, so that they can be compared and combined. Basically,
standardizing indicators is necessary because indicators are
measured in different measurement units. The literature is rich
with several methods (i.e., maximum, interval, goal, concave,
where W(k) is the normalized weight for the criterion with
rank k, n is the total number of criteria, and i is the index,
marking the summation that takes the value from 1 to n.
Table 3 shows the final ranking order, calculated weights of
criteria, and the standardization method together with relevant
indicators, based on the results of the questionnaire.

Table 3 Criterion weights based on the questionnaire and the standardization methods.
Criteria Indicator Rank order Normalized Weight Contribution to criterion Standardization methods
Level of density 1 0.33
Population density 1 0.27 16.67 %
Commercial density 2 0.23 16.67 %
Residential density 3 0.18 16.67 %
Employment density 4 0.14 16.67 % Maximum
FAR 5 0.09 16.67 %
BCR 5 0.09 16.67 %
Land use diversity 2 0.25
Land use diversity 1 1.00 100 % Maximum
Land use mixed-ness 2 0.25
Land use mixedness 1 1.00 100 % Maximum
Economic development 3 0.17
Business density 1 1.00 100 % Maximum
248 S.M. Ibrahim et al.

5.3. Computing the potential composite TOD index
Once the weights were determined, the potential value of the
composite TOD index for every grid cell was calculated, by
adding up the results of the multiplication of the standardized
value of the indicator and the weight associated with each vari-
able (see Equation (5)). This operation is called ‘the weighted
linear combination method’, where higher values represent
higher levels of TOD. This method was adopted by the Food
and Agriculture Organization [23] and employed by [24] in
transportation field for land suitability assessment of potential
TOD. A visual inspection of the resulting map of TOD indexes
shows where the clusters were formed. To get a better under-
standing of clustering details (level of clustering), some other
spatial statistical analyses are required.
Xn
Si ¼ ðWi  RiÞ ð5Þ
i¼1
Where Si is the composite TOD index for each pixel i, Wi is the
result of the multiplication of the weights of all indicators or
criteria, Ri is the standardized value of each pixel on the
map of the indicator or criterion, and n is the total number
of the indicators or criteria.
5.4. Sensitivity analysis
Upon conducting SMCA, it was seen that the results of the
potential TOD index were dependent on the weights of the
indicators and the standardization method applied. Moreover,
the weights of indicators used in this research could be prone
to uncertainty. For instance, if a second questionnaire was
given to the same stakeholder as the questionnaire mentioned
above, there was a possibility of getting a slightly different
combination of weights [25]. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis
was performed to assess the robustness of the results and to
see whether slight weight changes would affect the final TOD
index in a significant way. The ideal sensitivity analysis would
demand many more combinations of weights.
However, to make matters less complicated, the sensitivity
analysis was performed for three scenarios. The combination
of changes in weight and the tested scenarios (given in Table 4)
were:

Scenario One: Based on the final results of the SMCA
model developed in the current study.

Scenario Two: Based on the ranking of indicators and the
weights obtained following a stakeholders’ workshop held
by Singh et al. [13], who worked on the same topic as this
research.

Base Scenario: All the indicators had the same rank and
hence the same weight, to avoid the influence of bias on
the results (equal weights scenario).
6. Analyzing the values of the TOD index
The analyses performed at this stage are crucial in determining
which area(s)/location(s) within the clusters needs transit con-
nectivity. The previous stage explored the potential TOD index
map, using visual analysis and it showed where the clusters
were formed and the concentration of similar values. This sim-
ple visual inspection can only be used in determining which
areas are potentially more transit-oriented, without explicitly
reflecting the magnitude of the differences between these and
other areas. Hence, spatial statistical analysis was employed
to clarify the existence, intensity, and types of clusters, thus
the subjectivity of visual analysis was avoided.
After the spatial-statistical analysis was performed, the
clusters of high index values were mapped and further ana-
lyzed to be spatially identified. At first, the scores of the poten-
tial TOD index were tested using Global Moran’s I statistic (a
spatial autocorrelation analysis), to determine if spatial clus-
ters existed within the City and their significance. The null
hypothesis was that the distribution of potential TOD index
values over the study area is completely random and has no
pattern. A distance band of 500 m was used as a threshold dis-
tance, where cells within 500 m of a central grid cell were con-
sidered neighbors and their scores were compared with the
average scores of the whole region. Based on the results of
Global Moran’s I statistic, it was confirmed that there were
clusters of TOD index values within the City. Second, to spa-
tially identify these clusters, map their location, and find their
intensity, local statistical techniques of spatial association were
computed for every grid cell across the City. These statistical
techniques are:

Table 4 The alternate scenarios (sensitivity analysis). Source: the authors.

Criteria Indicator Normalized Weight
Scenario1 Scenario 2 Base scenario
Level of density 0.33 0.43 0.25
Population density 0.27 0.30 0.16666
Commercial density 0.23 0.15 0.16666
Residential density 0.18 0.30 0.16666
Employment density 0.14 0.15 0.16666
FAR 0.09 0.06 0.16666
BCR 0.09 0.04 0.16666
Land use diversity 0.25 0.19 0.25
Land use diversity 1.00 1.00 1.00
Land use mixed-ness 0.25 0.19 0.25
Land use mixed-ness 1.00 1.00 1.00
Economic development 0.17 0.19 0.25
Business density 1.00 1.00 1.00
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels
1. Getis-Ord Gi* (hotspot analysis) [26]: When a feature has a
high value and is surrounded by neighbors with high values,
it is considered a hotspot. It reflects a statistically significant
difference, when the sum of the values of the feature and its
neighbors is compared to the total sum of all feature values
across the study area. The distribution of this proportion,
as measured by z-score and p-value, indicates whether or
not a feature is a statistically significant hotspot [13].
2. Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic (cluster/outlier analysis)
[27]: This method represents the clusters better because it
relies on the similarity of the values more than their magni-
tude. This method is capable of identifying whether the fea-
tures are dissimilar to neighboring features or whether they
are within a homogeneous cluster (spatial dissimilarities).
The spatial association in the neighboring context is classi-
fied into:
HH (high-high) indicates a cluster of high values sur-
rounded by high-value clusters (hotspots).
LL (low-low) indicates a cluster of low values surrounded
by low-value clusters (coldspots).
HL (high-low) indicates a high-value outlier surrounded by
low-value outliers (spatial outliers).
LH (low–high) indicates a low-value outlier surrounded by
high-value outliers (spatial outliers).
Finally, to identify hotspots, areas that are significant hot-
spots, as indicated by both types of statistics, were then iden-
tified. The final results are presented and discussed in the
following section.
7. Results and discussion
First, results of the spatial calculation of each indicator were
mapped and presented in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 in this section.
According to the concept of TOD measurement, indicators
measured are directly or implicitly related to the characteristics
of the land-use of each area. Comparative exploration of land-
use within the study area, as well as the quantification maps
demonstrate how land-use and urban patterns affect the com-
puted indicators. After calculating all indicators in ArcGIS,
they were assessed together to calculate the values of the
potential TOD index for each grid cell. Based on standardiza-
tion and SMCA, the output, in Fig. 6, was finally generated.
The potential TOD index map (Fig. 6) shows the current
levels of TOD (low, medium, or high) together with the exist-
ing major bus station connectivity. It also visually determines
whether a location is a TOD or not. The maximum score for
the computed index value was 1.889 (in red), and the lowest
score was 0.01 (in green), while disregarding zero (maximum)
values. The red color shows the highest value of land suitabil-
ity (TOD level). As for the green color, it indicates the lowest
value of suitability. It can be noted from the map that TOD
levels are not very high across most of the City. A visual
inspection of the map shows that some form of clustering is
visible at the urban core, while a small proportion of scattered
clusters are visible at the peri-urban unplanned growth zone,
the western urban coastal zone, and the rural villages on farm-
lands. The results also show that the inner-city region only
makes up 78 % of the high TOD scores, ranging between 0.9
and 1.889, compared to the other high-score areas. On the
other hand, the outer areas with low scores, between 0 and
249
0.29, represent 57 % of all measured areas, compared to the
whole City, which is relatively large. It should be noted that
this percentage includes the cells that correspond to the loca-
tion of Lake Mariout in the south, El-Nozha Lake, canals,
parks, agricultural areas, ports, vacant lands, and water bod-
ies. Hotspots that have no stations can be upgraded by creat-
ing new ones. Table 5 summarizes some of the potentially high
TOD areas, which have connectivity between major stations,
based on visual inspection.
The output was generated based on the same standardiza-
tion method, different weights, and the SMCA model. Sce-
nario Two shows that the maximum score for the computed
index was 1.84, and the lowest score was 0.01, while disregard-
ing the zero values. While the Base Scenario shows a higher
maximum score of 1.88 for the region under study. Upon com-
paring the two maps, slight changes can be seen in the final
TOD index, but not in a significantly observable way. How-
ever, the number of low-value cells in Scenario One was med-
ium to high compared to the other two scenarios. For instance,
some areas appeared to imply slightly higher values, based on
Scenario Two. These areas include Abu-Kir El-Gharbiya,
areas south of the industrial zone in El-Agamy El-Kiblia, El-
Syouf Qibli, and El-Qosay Qibli.
This is not surprising because land-use diversity and mixed-
ness, as well as business density indicators, had the same high-
est weights for the two alternate scenarios. Moreover, only one
indicator was included in the design and economic develop-
ment criteria, during the weighting process. Thus, they had
the same value of 1. Therefore, the best scenario was found
to be Scenario One, since it is the closest scenario to the reality
found on the ground, and it gives the highest TOD scores for
many areas across the region. Fig. 7 depicts the results of the
spatial autocorrelation analysis and the bell curve scheme,
which helps to interpret the resulting values. The null hypoth-
esis of complete spatial randomness of the index values over
the study area was rejected because the z-score value was too
high (99.156882) and the p-value was highly statistically signif-
icant (0.000). Simply, the clustered pattern of the potential
TOD index was less than 1 %, which likely results from ran-
dom chance. Hence, the potential TOD index has a 99 % con-
fidence level.
Based on the hotspot analysis using Getis-Ord Gi* statis-
tics, Fig. 8.a was generated. As observed on the map, there
were seven groups of interval classes describing distinct inten-
sity levels in each color and their distribution. The red-colored
scale indicates high spatial concentration in an area along with
its surroundings (for areas with hotspot status). In contrast,
the blue color scale indicates low spatial concentration for
areas that have cold spot status. The urban core zone displays
large areas of hotspot concentration, with different confidence
levels. Similarly, some areas scattered across the City feature a
high concentration of hotspots. Since Global Moran’s TOD
index is not able to show cluster areas based on similarities
with their neighbors, the test continues to use the Anselin
Local Moran index. From Fig. 8.b, the results show that most
areas that have a high index are HH, which means high clus-
ters surrounded by high-index value neighboring areas. While
the vast areas of light-blue color indicate LL status, i.e., low
clusters surrounded by low-index value neighboring areas.
The light-yellow color across the map shows that there is no
statistically significant clustering of index values in those areas.
250
Fig. 4 The calculated individual maps (a) Residential density map, (b) Population density map, (c) Business density map, (d) Floor area
ratio map, and (e) Land-use diversity map.
Fig. 9 depicts the statistically significant hotspots, which
have been identified based on the two previously mentioned
tests. This map was generated based on Getis-Ord Gi* hot-
spots at the confidence level of 95 % and Anselin Local Moran
I high index (HH) clusters. The red color in the map indicates
that these areas are statistically significant, based on both tests,
which means that they are at the center of hotspots of the
potential TOD index. In accordance with the results, the signif-
icant hotspots are concentrated in the old urban core area
(consisting of Wasat, Gomrok, and Gharb districts), with pro-
S.M. Ibrahim et al.
gressive spreading outwards from this center. Some potential
TOD areas in the inner-city zone have already high-density
development with smaller building block sizes, considered as
an essential characteristic of the definition of the TOD con-
cept. In most areas, population density at the urban core is dis-
tributed over a much smaller area in multi-story buildings with
various heights. Besides, inner-city areas have high diversity in
land-use. This is not surprising because (1) the core area is the
historic nucleus containing businesses, services, commercial
and mixed-use residential areas, and old industrial and craft
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels 251

Fig. 5 The calculated individual maps (a) Building coverage ratio map, (b) Land-use mixedness map, (c) Commercial density map, and
(d) Employment density map.

Fig. 6 The Potential TOD index map with districts delineations overlaid.
252 S.M. Ibrahim et al.

Table 5 Examples of some of the potentially high TOD areas

across the City of Alexandria and the status of their major bus
stations connectivity.
Potentially High TOD Areas Major Bus stations
(Hotspots)
Existent Poor or Absent
El-Godd and El-Laban d
El-Borsa and Kafr Ashri d
El-Sekka El-Gedida and Tartoshy d
El-Sohbagia and Ezbet Sharkas d
Embroz and Muharam Bek d
El-Azaritah and El-Shatby d
El-Hadara Qibli d
In front of Antoniadis Gardens d
Ezbet El-Nozha d
El-Zahria and Ezbet El-Safih d
Ezbet El-Wastanya
El-Manshiya El-Baharia d
Abu-Kir El-Gharbia d
Abis and Khurshid d
Ghait El-Enab d
Tabiet Saleh d
El-Kabbari d Fig. 7 Spatial autocorrelation analysis result (Global Moran’s I
El-Maks d statistics report).
El-Wardian d
El-Agamy El-Kiblia and Om-Zgheou d
Scattered areas along the coastal road d Thus, this district’s population is distributed over large areas.
El-Daraa El-Gomrokia d As a corollary, this somehow affects the number of potential
Bakos d TOD-hotspot areas found in the western coastal zone. How-
El-Maghawry d ever, some potential hotspot areas were found, such as El-
El-Nahda and some rural areas d Agamy El-Qablia and Om-Zgheou industrial areas. These
areas are characterized by residential buildings and a high per-
centage of industrial activities and firms.
Other significant hotspots found scattered across the
workshop zones [28], and (2) residential buildings themselves unplanned south areas are rural villages. Across the peri-
often include commercial space on ground floors, which is con- urban unplanned zone, there are also areas surrounded by
sidered a common practice in the City of Alexandria. industrial and service activities (i.e., Abis, Khurshid, and some
Regarding the hotspots in the western coastal and the peri- settlements near Mariout Lake (beside Carrefour City Center
urban unplanned zones, they stand in sharp contrast to the Mall) and Ezbet El-Talatin). As can be seen on the map, most
inner-city zone, as they developed more recently. For instance, of these areas lack connectivity and proper infrastructure,
the urban communities in El-Agamy adopt the building style which affects the liveliness and safety of places where people
of single-family homes (units consisting of an entire building). socialize. According to the GOPP report [28], about 15.5 %

Fig. 8 (a) Mapping Hotspots based on the Getis-Ord Gi* Statistic, and (b) Mapping clusters based on the Anselin Local Moran’s I
Statistic.
Measuring Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) levels
Fig. 9 Potential TOD index based on the statistically significant hotspots at confidence level 95%.
of those living in Alexandria reside in these unplanned areas.
Assuming that there is an infrastructure proper for walking,
these areas need a suburban type of TOD.
8. Conclusion
TOD has arguably become the catchphrase of the planning
world over the last four decades. It is widely recognized as
one of the most comprehensive sustainable planning
approaches. Moreover, it is believed that TOD has many aims,
which eventually achieve smart growth principles for enhanc-
ing the livability and mobility of local communities. It also
attempts to orient land-use and development towards the
transport system. In line with this, this research focuses on
the issue of measuring potential TOD levels quantitatively in
a city-wide context, via the TOD index. This was attained
through a four-stage model extending from an existing frame-
work commonly used by researchers and applied to the City of
Alexandria, as a case study. Eventually, the model’s output
aimed at facilitating the prioritization of development inter-
ventions during the decision-making process. Results also
showed that the highest index score was 1.889 across the
region. It was found in high percentages in the inner-city
region (Wasat, Gomrok, and Gharb districts). On the other
hand, the outer areas with low scores between 0 and 0.29 rep-
resent 57 % of the whole region under study, which is rela-
tively high. Many areas appeared to have potentially high
levels of TOD. Two of these cases were found in:
(1) Hotspots with existing bus station connectivity:
They are recommended for further assessment, as they fall
under different scales that focus on the levels of TOD around
existing stations (measured by the actual TOD index measure-
ment). The actual TOD measurement needs a more detailed
253
analysis employing other indicators, which are not part of
the potential TOD index calculations.
(2) Hotspots that have no stations: They can be upgraded
by creating new major stations.
In accordance with the results, the significant hotspots
found are concentrated in the old urban core area, progres-
sively spreading outwards from this center. The number of
hotspots in the western coastal and the peri-urban unplanned
zones contrasts with the number of hotspots in the inner city.
The other significant hotspots were found scattered across the
south unplanned areas, such as rural villages or across the peri-
urban unplanned zone as they are surrounded by industrial
and service activities. It is concluded that some areas are
already TODs, while others are very close to being TODs,
and improving their score might be beneficial for the entire
region. In this vein, some existing values of the indicator can
contribute to a TOD type of development. The output map
also showed some pixels with zero values; thus, these areas
cannot be TODs. In the end, there are possible recommenda-
tions that have been seen through the current research based
on different limitations and further investigations should fol-
low these limitations. They are divided into two parts as
follows:
(1) Specific recommendations to improve the study area
based on the conclusions
First, it is recommended to formulate context-specific solu-
tions, priorities, and level of intervention needed to maximize
the potential of TOD (i.e., improvements on the network level,
street hierarchy, or station area typologies). According to Alex
SUP 2032, there is no clear or consistent ordering system in
Alexandria that classifies roads by function and capacity. A
254
consistent ordering system that classifies the roads by function
and capacity would help planners to make decisions about
traffic management and appropriate land uses on adjacent
properties. Second, the allocation of high-quality public space,
connectivity, accessibility, safe access to stations, multi-modal
integration, non-motorized transport facilities, and investment
strategies are the key considerations. Although BTOD might
not be built right away during the development of the detected
potential TOD areas in Alexandria, the detected land resource
(hotspot) should be reserved and upgraded for later TOD
implementation. In these areas, public transport and urban
patterns have to be planned together, thus triggering the
increase of population and jobs simultaneously.
and (2) directions on further research in response to the lim-
itations of the suggested TOD model.
First, it can be seen that the adopted TOD model used
weighted scores in the decision process based on 30 Alexan-
drian stakeholders only. Thus, the consideration of more
stakeholders in the process would certainly have a major
impact on the criteria weighting that may affect the value of
each indicator. Second, the choice of criteria inclusion is influ-
enced by the data availability and time constraints to develop
quantitative criterion maps. Despite the important role of
some criteria and indicators, they had to be dropped from
the analysis. However, the final chosen criteria believed that
they are sufficiently representative of the four essential criteria
classes. Thus, the more indicators included, the more precise
the results will be obtained.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Sara M. Ibrahim: Conceptualization, Resources, Formal anal-
ysis, Writing – original draft, Software, Visualization. Hany
M. Ayad: Methodology, Writing – review & editing, Supervi-
sion. Eslam A. Turki: Software, Visualization. Dina M. Saadal-
lah: Methodology, Investigation, Writing – review & editing,
Supervision.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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