Considering Anglo-Saxon Migrations

Limited Quantities

Today, most historians agree that no more than 350–500,000 people migrated during the
Völkerwanderung.

That figure must be compared with the total estimated population of the Late Roman Empire:
50 million, with 30 million in the West. 96% were farmers. So, half a million people would
immigrate, equivalent to 2% of the imperial population at the most, and spread over at least
one and a half centuries. This means an average of 5,000 men, women and children per year,
or 20 per day for the whole Western Empire! This percentage is not comparable with present-
day immigration.

Travelling has always been expensive. So, migratory tribes moved in large waggon trains. To
supply themselves, they plundered the neighbourhoods they passed. It is a myth that the
Romans forbade immigration into the Empire. In fact, anyone was welcome into the Empire,
as an individual, a family, and a new taxpayer. Plundering groups were not welcome,
however, for obvious reasons. The surprisingly low migration rate also applies to the Anglo-
Saxon migrations into Britain.

Britain had some four million estimated inhabitants in A.D. 410. At least 2.7 million lived
east of the Pennines. We know that Anglo-Saxons had been invited in Britain as
‘mercenaries’ even before the fall of the Roman Empire, and that they were still immigrating
150 years later. In reality, the total migration represented probably no more than 35–50,000
men, women, and children, although the majority must have been young men. The Anglo-
Saxon migrations were spread over four or five generations.

Therefore, we must divide the total by four or five, to have a more precise idea about the real
percentage of the Anglo-Saxon component of the local population at any time during that
period. The equation (50,000 / 4 = 12,500 Anglo-Saxons per generation. 2,700,000 locals /
12,500 A-S *100=0.46%) gives us a continuous max. between 0.25% up to 0.46%. This
percentage can be compared with the ‘classic’ 0.5–1.5 % of professional fighters within a
given population. So, the Anglo-Saxons could have represented no more than half the
professional soldiers in Britain, which is consistent with the new version of the events during
the fifth century which I will develop next.

The idea of a possible half a million invading Anglo-Saxons is unlikely, considering the fact
that they had to come in small boats across the German Ocean. The number and size of the
ships to perform such an operation would have exceeded ‘Operation Dynamo’ (the Dunkirk-
Dover evacuation of the British Army end May 1940). Technically, only a slow, gradual
‘migration’ was possible.

Recent scientific publications have accepted the idea that the Anglo-Saxons did not exercise
overwhelming power over the local population. The main reason is very simple: the Anglo-
Saxons did not have the manpower to do so. This gives us an important clue that the Anglo-
Saxons had to keep the local population on their side. They were simply unable to cope with
a major rebellion, a general uprising.
The Fries lived amongst Angles and Saxons. The zones on the picture are approximate. The
etymology of ‘Angle’ is ‘narrow region,’ related to ‘angle’ (hook).

Available Manpower

How many Anglo-Saxons could have entered Britain? The region they came from must have
had some 0.7–1 million inhabitants. Extract 1% professional warriors = 7000–10,000 men.
Most of them had previously found employment in the service of local ‘kings’ (cf. the
Finnsburh fragment). They were policemen at the service of local rich landowners and
politicians (called ‘kings’) when no war was at hand. The technical word for this occupation
is housecarl. Only those who became unemployed would migrate to Britain. Britain needed
experienced mercenaries. So, we can estimate that 10% of the warriors in the English
homeland, or an average of about 700 men, were available and possibly came over. The
renewal of this ‘source’ was slow, as a long training regime was required and untimely
casualties common. The occupation of arms was always hazardous. A maximum of 500 men
per year is the best estimate; 300 is more realistic. Given the very limited area where the
Angles originally lived, I estimate their total population at less than 50,000.

The Romans actively recruited, often by force. The Britons had no choice but to ‘invite’
soldiers passively. As Britain needed an estimated two legions or 10,000 men to defend itself,
the recruitment of sufficient Anglo-Saxon forces would have demanded two or three decades.
Thirty years later, this Foreign Legion would represent 0.27% of the British population.

Compare: The American army of occupation in Iraq made up some 1% of the population, but
they were unable to maintain law and order in the country. In fact, they were lucky that Iraqi
insurgents primarily targeted their own people.

Gildas strongly suggested that the Anglo-Saxons were far from popular. He portrayed them
as terrible, devilish, bloodthirsty, brutal, uncivilised pagans.

Reasoning further, it becomes clear that Bede’s late date for the Adventus Saxonum (A.D.
449) is unlikely. The rebellion occurred just a few years later. This implies that no more than
1500 Anglo-Saxons, at best, took over the country. This is hard to believe. An early
chronology (428) is more realistic. But a takeover was only possible by means of concerted
action. Only a strong concentration of Anglo-Saxons could have achieved this ‘conquest.’
How many Anglo-Saxons came over?

The limited number of Anglo-Saxon warriors is the main reason for their very slow westward
expansion. One can estimate that at no given moment did the number of German-born
warriors exceed 3,000 men. Maintaining power with such a small force is not easy. Luckily,
England was much divided. This division was the result of the increased power of local elites
due to the hiring of Anglo-Saxon warriors. The ‘Anglo-Saxon’ kingdoms could only expand
their power after the local mentality had changed in favour of the ‘German’ mentality: duty,
loyalty, and respect for authority.

The Anglo-Saxons’ task was maintain ‘law and order’: the authority and power of their
British employers.  The Anglo-Saxons became British housecarls.

Soldiers and Statistics

Historians have estimated the percentage of soldiers within a population for all eras and
civilisations. They came up with an average estimate that professional soldiers represent no
more than 0.5–1.5% of the total population or tribe. A militia represents between 5% and
10%. The real figures depend upon a number of factors like the presence/absence of a warrior
tradition, social and administrative organization (to mobilise the men), the perception of
danger, and availability of resources. 10% is considered to be the upper limit.

In Western Europe, a militia, rounded up before battle casualties, generally represents some
7% of the total population. When a war lasts longer, fresh drafts (conscription) could bump
this up to the 10% maximum. Beyond that 10%, the quality of troops grows inverse to
quantity. One professional soldier is worth two militiamen.